Advanced Stats – Pitching: Friday, August 4th
No rainouts last night. Checked the MLB.com probables later than usual on Thursday night. Hopefully, all pitchers are correct today. The trend seems to be missing a late night or early morning change often this week and there is an effort being made to halt that practice.
One thing I’m pretty sure we’re getting is a deGrom/Darvish matchup that looks like fun on a smaller than usual 13-game main slate for Friday.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 4.9 | 4.53 | 5.34 | 39.6% | 1 | 4.91 | 3.99 | ATL | 88 | 102 | 94 |
| Anthony Banda | ARI | -5.4 | 4.42 | 5.2 | 23.5% | 0.93 | 4.42 | SFO | 77 | 83 | 95 | |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 7.3 | 3.86 | 4.28 | 27.5% | 1.02 | 3.91 | 1.66 | STL | 87 | 95 | 60 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | -0.2 | 4.52 | 5.69 | 44.1% | 1.04 | 3.75 | 6.18 | TEX | 81 | 97 | 104 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | -5.5 | 3.98 | 5. | 41.0% | 0.94 | 3.66 | 3.76 | TOR | 93 | 92 | 128 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -0.1 | 4.02 | 5.93 | 44.1% | 1.13 | 3.94 | 2.71 | BOS | 94 | 102 | 140 |
| Cesar Valdez | TOR | -1.9 | 4.66 | 4. | 41.3% | 0.94 | 5.68 | 4.05 | HOU | 122 | 131 | 102 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 5.4 | 4.23 | 5.64 | 35.6% | 1.13 | 4.77 | 4.58 | CHW | 93 | 103 | 82 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -2.4 | 4.11 | 5.93 | 50.2% | 0.97 | 3.84 | 3.38 | SDG | 78 | 87 | 61 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -1.6 | 3.46 | 6.27 | 45.4% | 0.91 | 3.4 | 2.94 | LOS | 102 | 109 | 91 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | -0.5 | 4.33 | 6.11 | 38.3% | 0.96 | 5.01 | 4.74 | MIL | 96 | 93 | 49 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 2.4 | 4.04 | 5.93 | 56.1% | 1.09 | 4.41 | 4.03 | CLE | 111 | 107 | 113 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 7.4 | 3.53 | 5.78 | 46.9% | 1.06 | 3.28 | 1.75 | KAN | 92 | 87 | 73 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 7.2 | 4.34 | 5.45 | 40.0% | 1.06 | 4.55 | 3.71 | SEA | 95 | 103 | 109 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | -11.2 | 4.7 | 5.46 | 36.8% | 0.91 | 4.67 | 7 | ANA | 100 | 96 | 129 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 1.7 | 3.84 | 6.49 | 34.2% | 1.02 | 4.17 | 3.93 | BAL | 100 | 97 | 109 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -5.1 | 4.05 | 5.7 | 43.9% | 1.02 | 3.97 | 3.72 | DET | 92 | 95 | 109 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | -3.9 | 4.88 | 5.91 | 56.0% | 1.39 | 4.18 | 4.18 | PHI | 76 | 82 | 98 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.2 | 3.7 | 5.85 | 49.8% | 0.96 | 3.3 | 3.49 | WAS | 100 | 107 | 46 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | -3 | 3.25 | 6.78 | 40.8% | 0.93 | 3.56 | 4.16 | ARI | 81 | 75 | 83 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 1.8 | 4.94 | 5.86 | 52.0% | 1.04 | 4.85 | 5.31 | MIN | 98 | 84 | 64 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -1.5 | 4.12 | 6. | 54.4% | 1.02 | 3.97 | 3.65 | CIN | 98 | 97 | 90 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | -1.8 | 4.87 | 6.02 | 44.1% | 1 | 4.82 | 4.75 | MIA | 105 | 97 | 105 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 1 | 4.4 | 5.98 | 47.6% | 0.96 | 4.41 | 2.89 | CHC | 101 | 91 | 97 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | -5.4 | 4.32 | 4.03 | 0.39 | 0.97 | 5.37 | 3.57 | PIT | 89 | 96 | 68 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.3 | 4.22 | 5.68 | 0.471 | 1.09 | 3.88 | 4.34 | NYY | 98 | 112 | 70 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 2 | 5.9 | 0.167 | 0.91 | 7.93 | 5.9 | OAK | 85 | 102 | 121 | |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 2.2 | 3.86 | 5.32 | 0.379 | 1.39 | 4.15 | 5.29 | COL | 90 | 80 | 91 |
| Yu Darvish | LOS | 2.8 | 3.52 | 6.08 | 0.406 | 0.91 | 3.34 | 2.97 | NYM | 95 | 101 | 95 |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | -1.6 | 0 | 0 | 0.96 | TAM | 111 | 108 | 99 |
Anthony Banda has a league average K-BB above 12% in 180 AAA innings for his career and higher marks at lower levels. He has some prospect shine and the stuff to dominate hitters according to a recent scouting report. He made the back end of the Top 100 Fangraphs prospects (#88) with a 50 FV grade this year. In his first major league start a couple of weeks ago, he lived in the mid-90s and struck out five of 23 Nationals at home, but was hit rather hard (44.4 Hard%), but who doesn’t in that park. The secondaries (curve, change) weren’t thrown that often and still may need a bit of work, but he’s certainly an arm worth watching and perhaps even using in a great spot in San Francisco tonight. Unfortunately, the Giants make a lot of contact, but have just a 5.7 HR/FB at home (8.2 HR/FB vs RHP).
Brad Peacock returns to the rotation after a four inning relief outing last week. His SwStr% is down, but still around league average for July, though it’s been below 8% in three of his last four appearances. I’m not sure if anyone expected him to keep missing bats at an elite rate, but the 13% walk rate is going to be an issue if he drops too far. Another positive is that he’s been one of the top contact managers on the slate with a board leading 28.1% 95+ mph EV and has a 2.9 Hard-Soft% this year. The Blue Jays have been hot and have a 14.3 K% over the last week, but have been substandard all season.
Eduardo Rodriguez has failed to complete six innings in any of three starts since his return from a knee injury with a high ERA because he’s allowed a HR in each start, but his strikeout and swinging strike rates are right in line with his season. He’s in a decent enough spot tonight against a White Sox offense that has been slipping and is without many of the bats that made them so potent against LHP earlier in the season.
Ivan Nova has allowed 14 HRs over his last 10 starts in which he’s allowed at least three runs seven times, but more than four just once. His ground ball rate is only about league average over this span (44.6%), but he should be able to get away with more averagely managed air contact in a favorable park. The good news is that he still doesn’t walk anyone and he’s had a double digit SwStr% in each of his last two starts. More great news, the Pirates host the Padres, who strike out over a quarter of the time.
Jacob deGrom had his shortest outing in his last nine last time out with just six innings, but he struck out 10 for the eighth time this year. He’s allowed more than two ERs just once over this span. While he’s already at a career high 19 HRs, his 29.1% 95+ mph EV is third best on the board. His 21.0 K-BB% is 10th in all of baseball. The Dodgers are not an easy opponent, but he pitches in a great park and they will strike out.
James Paxton somehow threw 108 pitches in six innings without a walk or a run last time out, but he did strike out eight Mets, a total he has reached in six of his last eight starts. His 21.6 K-BB% is superior to last year and would be ninth in the majors with a few more innings to qualify. He combines that with a board low 1.8% Barrels/BBE, despite just an average ground ball rate. While Kansas City is a positive run environment, it limits power and is the type of park a good Seattle outfield defense can take advantage of. This is a nice spot for him to continue his quality work over the last month and a half.
Justin Verlander has struck out a few more batters and walked a few less, leading to a 15.7 K-BB% over the last month. That’s not an All-Star, but is an above average pitcher. He’s additionally kept his hard hit rate just a bit under 30% (29.9), which he hasn’t done in any rolling five game span this season previously. Baltimore is not the ideal place for an extreme fly ball pitcher allowing too much hard contact, but they do have just a 6.8 BB% vs RHP and just a middle of the road 97 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers.
Madison Bumgarner has begun to look a bit better after a rough go in his first couple of starts back from the DL. He threw seven shutout innings with seven strikeouts in his last start in LA (Dodgers) and still has an 18.7 K-BB% on the year. By pure numbers, he’s in the best spot on the board hosting the Diamondbacks (25.8 K% vs LHP), but one wonders if they’ll continue to be so poor against southpaws or on the road with Pollock healthy and the addition of Martinez. The park downgrade is substantial no matter who’s in the lineup though.
R.A. Dickey has gone seven innings in six of his last 10 starts over which he has a 0.5 Hard-Soft% and 15.6 K-BB%. For the season, his 85.2 mph aEV and 28.4% 95+ mph EV are among the best on the board. We know that we can’t always apply conventional sabermetric principles like estimators to knuckleball pitchers, but Statcast may be helping us figure out some of their value. Dickey has been pitching well for nearly two months now, allowing more than one run in just three of those 10 starts. The overall numbers still hate him. It’s not that they see anything incredibly negative in his profile, but just not much that’s positive. I’m doing an over-ride. He’s been a throwback to his Mets days since June. The Marlins are pretty average by most components.
Vince Velasquez has pitched well in two of three starts since returning from the DL, including a season high 108 pitches and seven innings last time out against the Braves. His 89.5 mph aEV and 42.6% 95+ mph EV probably doesn’t fare so well in Colorado tonight, but the Rockies have a 15.1 K-BB% vs RHP.
Yu Darvish makes his NL debut coming off maybe the worst start of his career (10 ERs), but then previously one of his best starts of the season (8 IP – 12 K), though he also allowed three HRs in that one and five total over his last two now. As a whole, his 18.3 K-BB% is his worst since his rookie season, but still borderline All-Star, while he has an 85.7 mph EV that should be considered a victory in Texas. He’s in a marginal spot improved by the park and though the Mets don’t strike out a lot (18.9% vs RHP), they have over the last week (19.0 K-BB%). He struck out nine of 27 Mets in 7.1 innings in a visit to Texas in early June where he only made a couple of mistakes to Jay Bruce.
Brandon Woodruff was the pre-season 6th best prospect for the Brewers with a 50 FV grade according to Fangraphs, also making a late appearance on their top 100 prospects (that makes two today). He led the minor leagues in strikeouts in 2016 (or so the blurb says), though issues with his secondary pitches make scouts uncertain about his future. He ran a 14.8 K-BB% in 14 AAA starts this season, which could translate to a league average pitcher immediately if things break right and he starts off in a high strikeout spot in Tampa Bay tonight (25% vs RHP). This offense does have plenty of power (17.7 HR/FB vs RHP) and a 19.6 Hard-Soft% at home, so it’s not without risk.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Jacob Faria (.265 – 81.1% – 8.8) struck out 34.7% of batters at AAA and ran through his first month of major league action with a 23.6 K-BB% in June. However, he crashed in July with a 4.8 K-BB%, which would have been even worse if he didn’t increase his strikeout total for the month by over 50% with eight his last time out. He also walked a season high five in that start. He’s in a high strikeout spot against a dangerous Milwaukee offense (18 HR/FB on the road, 19 HR/FB vs RHP) that strikes out a quarter of the time on the road and vs RHP, but also has a 28.2 K% over the last week. The range of outcomes here is very wide. If you’re playing 10 or more lineups on a two pitcher site, some exposure is probably fine.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Trevor Bauer will pop off a great start every month or so and that’s what happened last time out (7 IP – 1 ER – 1 BB – 6 K), but he’s walked seven of his previous 32 batters and his SwStr% has not supported his K% all season. His Statcast are among the worst on the board (89.2 mph aEV, 9% Barrels/BBE, 39.9% 95+ mph EV). The Yankees are a difficult matchup in Cleveland, but have been slumping, striking out a quarter of the time over the last week. He’s close, but I’m never going to trust him.
Kevin Gausman has the highest SwStr rate on the board (14.5%) over the last month with a 30 K%. He’s allowed one run or less in five of his last seven starts, but got pounded in the other two. Although batters from either side have pounded him this year, he has a .343 career wOBA against RHB and has allowed 8.9% Barrels/BBE overall this year. Although not as potent as prior to the trade deadline and not as good overall vs RHP this year, the Tigers still have a lineup full of RHBs that hit RHP well. The numbers call it a marginal spot, but it’s a concerning one for his profile. I’m going to do a lot of wavering on him today though, so if weather (not likely), umpire, lineup seem favorable he can be considered.
Jason Hammel has allowed exactly three runs in four of his last five starts, but no more than that. His sub-four ERA for the month is backed by an 8.6 HR/FB with just two of his starts at home an no really power friendly environments. The interesting thing is the spike in SwStr%, which gives him a double digit mark for the third consecutive year now. The last two seasons, his strikeout rate has been league average or better, so there’s hope he can be a league average pitcher again and maybe even better considering what marginal fly ball pitchers have been able to do on that team in recent years. His contact management is nothing special though and he’s only gone more than six innings in one-third of his starts this year. Hosting the Mariners is a fairly marginal spot for him.
Carlos Rodon has had nine or more strikeouts in three of six starts this year, but four or fewer in the other three and has only had an above average SwStr% twice. He’s only throwing strike one 50.4% of the time, which is only garnering him chases 25.7% of the time. He walked fewer than three for just the first time last time out. Boston has a 5.6 K-BB% vs LHP and are the hottest offense in the majors and may even be the worst matchup on the board at Fenway.
Jaime Garcia makes his third consecutive start for a different team. He’s having an alright season, but is just in a difficult spot in Cleveland tonight.
Troy Scribner makes his first major league start for the Angels. The 26 year-old non-prospect has thrown four unimpressive innings out of the pen in two outings. He had a 15.1 K-BB% in 97 AAA innings this year, but just 6.8% last year in half the innings. He’s run an above average K%, but also a double digit walk rate at lower levels of the minors with a lean towards fly balls. The A’s will strike out around a quarter of the time, but do have some power, including a 23.9 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Adam Conley through 20.2 July innings, allowing just four runs with a season high 13.4 K-BB% for the month. He also had a 94.6 LOB% with a 41.9 Hard%. Still, more strikeouts and fewer walks on a consistent basis would make him more valuable again. He does have a 9.8 SwStr% for the season and there was a time we though he might be something. I’m not there on him yet. Atlanta is a difficult place to pitch against an offense with an 18.7 K% vs LHP, though I’m not buying a 16.0 HR/FB without Kemp.
Travis Wood looked great in his first start for the Padres, at home against Pittsburgh (6 IP – 2 H – 2 ER – 1 BB – 7 K – 22 BF), but not so much in three previous July starts for the Royals. He’ll try again in Pittsburgh tonight and while it’s a great park for LHPs, their 8.8 K-BB% vs LHP shouldn’t allow him to make such easy work of them again.
Jharel Cotton misses enough bats, but a 10.5 BB% and too many HRs (15 in 15 starts, 14 in his last 10) often prevent him from getting deep into games. However, he has just an 85.7 mph aEV and 30.4 95+ mph EV. There is some talent here with a changeup that prevents LHBs from making hard contact, if he could only stop walking him. He has the opposite problem against RHBs.
Carlos Valdes has the highest aEV (90 mph) and 95+ mph EV (45.7%) in 27.1 IP.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 20.8% | 9.6% | Road | 21.4% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 3.6% |
| Anthony Banda | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 21.7% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | 21.7% | 0.0% | ||
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 25.0% | 5.7% | Home | 30.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 6.3% |
| Bartolo Colon | Twins | L2 Years | 15.0% | 4.3% | Home | 19.8% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 29.2% | 12.4% | Home | 33.7% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 10.7% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 23.7% | 8.8% | Road | 24.6% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 40.8% | 10.2% |
| Cesar Valdez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 16.4% | 7.4% | Road | 14.7% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 4.4% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 22.1% | 8.1% | Home | 23.3% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 10.4% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.8% | 4.3% | Home | 17.0% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 2.1% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.6% | 6.6% | Home | 29.2% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 5.6% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 23.0% | 8.7% | Home | 18.1% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 14.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.7% | Road | 18.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 19.3% | 7.0% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 25.5% | 6.3% | Road | 24.4% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 36.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.2% | Home | 19.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 2.0% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.4% | 8.8% | Road | 21.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.4% | 7.6% | Road | 25.0% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 9.3% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 22.1% | 7.4% | Home | 22.4% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 10.5% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 14.5% | 8.4% | Home | 16.2% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 3.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.9% | 6.5% | Home | 22.7% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 27.6% | 5.3% | Home | 26.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 4.0% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.4% | 8.5% | Road | 12.0% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 7.8% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 15.9% | 5.0% | Road | 16.4% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 4.2% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 16.1% | 8.1% | Home | 16.7% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 15.7% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.6% | 8.4% | Road | 18.4% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 38.8% | 10.2% |
| Travis Wood | Padres | L2 Years | 20.5% | 9.7% | Road | 18.9% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 4.8% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.2% | 9.4% | Home | 22.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 9.3% |
| Troy Scribner | Angels | L2 Years | 13.3% | 6.7% | Home | 0.0% | 33.3% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 25.8% | 8.7% | Road | 21.7% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 11.9% |
| Yu Darvish | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.6% | 7.8% | Road | 29.6% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 5.7% |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 19.9% | 7.2% | LH | 18.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.1% |
| Giants | Home | 18.8% | 7.0% | LH | 18.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.9% | 6.8% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.9% | 8.6% | RH | 21.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 29.5% | 8.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.5% | 8.2% | RH | 24.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 28.9% | 6.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.9% | 9.4% | RH | 20.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 14.3% | 11.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.9% | 9.5% | LH | 16.3% | 10.7% | L7Days | 15.0% | 9.3% |
| Astros | Home | 16.7% | 7.8% | RH | 17.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 14.7% | 5.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.8% | 6.0% | LH | 21.9% | 6.7% | L7Days | 28.5% | 6.5% |
| Padres | Road | 26.2% | 7.2% | RH | 25.3% | 7.6% | L7Days | 24.8% | 7.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.4% | 10.8% | RH | 22.5% | 10.4% | L7Days | 21.0% | 11.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.8% | 8.7% | RH | 25.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 28.2% | 10.0% |
| Indians | Home | 18.5% | 10.2% | LH | 16.7% | 10.2% | L7Days | 16.3% | 9.2% |
| Royals | Home | 18.7% | 7.0% | LH | 18.9% | 6.5% | L7Days | 17.7% | 6.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.1% | 7.4% | RH | 21.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.2% | 8.4% |
| Angels | Home | 18.4% | 7.7% | RH | 19.7% | 8.0% | L7Days | 15.1% | 7.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.8% | 7.3% | RH | 21.9% | 6.8% | L7Days | 17.7% | 9.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.8% | 9.0% | RH | 21.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.8% | 8.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.1% | 7.8% | LH | 21.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.0% | 9.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.5% | 8.5% | RH | 20.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.0% | 3.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.5% | 8.5% | LH | 25.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 26.2% | 10.1% |
| Twins | Home | 21.6% | 10.1% | LH | 21.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 23.7% | 11.2% |
| Reds | Home | 21.9% | 9.1% | RH | 20.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.4% | 10.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.3% | 6.5% | RH | 20.5% | 7.5% | L7Days | 20.1% | 11.9% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.2% | 10.0% | RH | 22.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 26.8% | 9.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.9% | 8.9% | LH | 19.2% | 10.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.2% | 9.1% | RH | 22.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 25.0% | 8.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.2% | 9.1% | RH | 24.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.9% | 9.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.5% | 7.6% | RH | 22.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 24.0% | 7.9% |
| Mets | Home | 19.3% | 8.5% | RH | 18.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 25.1% | 6.1% |
| Rays | Home | 24.8% | 9.8% | RH | 25.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 26.3% | 10.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.1% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 2017 | 37.4% | 9.5% | 19.3% | Road | 30.9% | 9.7% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 41.5% | 10.5% | 22.0% |
| Anthony Banda | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 44.4% | 9.1% | 38.8% | 2017 | 44.4% | 9.1% | 38.8% | Road | L14 Days | 44.4% | 9.1% | 38.8% | |||
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 31.6% | 14.0% | 14.8% | 2017 | 31.9% | 14.3% | 14.9% | Home | 23.5% | 11.1% | 1.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Bartolo Colon | Twins | L2 Years | 33.0% | 11.8% | 15.6% | 2017 | 34.2% | 13.7% | 13.7% | Home | 33.1% | 12.0% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 42.2% | 14.3% | 28.9% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 28.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 2017 | 29.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | Home | 24.2% | 5.1% | -2.1% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 14.3% | 41.2% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 27.2% | 13.9% | 9.9% | 2017 | 29.6% | 23.3% | 16.0% | Road | 29.4% | 14.7% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 20.0% | 4.2% |
| Cesar Valdez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 47.8% | 20.7% | 35.8% | 2017 | 47.8% | 20.7% | 35.8% | Road | 46.2% | 21.7% | 32.7% | L14 Days | 45.7% | 14.3% | 40.0% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.7% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 2017 | 30.5% | 13.8% | 13.3% | Home | 26.9% | 15.2% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 18.2% | 22.5% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.4% | 15.9% | 15.3% | 2017 | 33.0% | 15.3% | 15.6% | Home | 31.0% | 12.7% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 37.5% | 38.2% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 31.6% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 2017 | 34.4% | 15.4% | 14.5% | Home | 29.7% | 10.2% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 40.6% | 6.7% | 28.1% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 29.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 2017 | 29.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | Home | 35.1% | 10.7% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 15.4% | 20.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | Yankees | L2 Years | 29.4% | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2017 | 28.4% | 12.4% | 6.3% | Road | 29.8% | 13.0% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 23.8% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.7% | 7.3% | 16.2% | 2017 | 30.1% | 5.7% | 13.1% | Road | 33.9% | 6.5% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 32.7% | 12.7% | 15.2% | 2017 | 29.3% | 9.3% | 12.2% | Home | 28.7% | 9.4% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 9.1% | 13.2% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 31.4% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 2017 | 32.5% | 13.6% | 10.0% | Road | 34.3% | 9.8% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 28.6% | 10.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.6% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 2017 | 36.0% | 9.5% | 19.5% | Road | 30.0% | 10.3% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.7% | 15.4% | 13.4% | 2017 | 34.1% | 15.0% | 15.7% | Home | 30.8% | 15.0% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 17.1% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.5% | 14.0% | 5.1% | 2017 | 29.5% | 14.0% | 5.1% | Home | 25.5% | 10.9% | -2.1% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 27.3% | 2.4% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 28.6% | 11.9% | 5.9% | 2017 | 36.2% | 15.5% | 14.1% | Home | 29.8% | 9.9% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 0.0% | 14.7% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 30.9% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 2017 | 34.2% | 9.5% | 15.5% | Home | 31.9% | 7.2% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 8.0% | 21.4% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.2% | 10.6% | 15.1% | 2017 | 35.9% | 12.0% | 21.0% | Road | 34.1% | 9.3% | 19.3% | L14 Days | 39.0% | 18.2% | 17.0% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.6% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 2017 | 31.4% | 14.6% | 16.1% | Road | 34.3% | 9.9% | 18.6% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 20.0% | 17.7% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 27.2% | 13.0% | 5.1% | 2017 | 26.4% | 13.3% | 2.5% | Home | 27.9% | 15.6% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | -6.7% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.4% | 10.7% | 6.3% | 2017 | 29.1% | 12.2% | 14.0% | Road | 24.5% | 11.4% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 9.1% | 12.0% |
| Travis Wood | Padres | L2 Years | 31.6% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 2017 | 27.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | Road | 34.4% | 7.0% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 33.1% | 12.6% | 15.5% | 2017 | 35.9% | 15.2% | 21.9% | Home | 33.7% | 16.0% | 18.8% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 0.0% | 10.8% |
| Troy Scribner | Angels | L2 Years | 33.3% | 14.3% | 25.0% | 2017 | 33.3% | 14.3% | 25.0% | Home | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 14.3% | 25.0% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.9% | 16.9% | 17.1% | 2017 | 37.4% | 22.2% | 22.1% | Road | 33.5% | 15.8% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 25.0% | 16.7% |
| Yu Darvish | Dodgers | L2 Years | 31.5% | 13.7% | 10.4% | 2017 | 32.5% | 15.0% | 12.5% | Road | 27.1% | 11.7% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 38.5% | 6.0% |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | Road | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 28.8% | 12.4% | 9.2% | LH | 28.9% | 16.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 29.0% | 12.3% | 11.9% |
| Giants | Home | 25.5% | 5.7% | 4.4% | LH | 28.7% | 8.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 30.3% | 12.5% | 14.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.5% | 13.0% | 13.4% | RH | 31.1% | 12.9% | 11.8% | L7Days | 27.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.3% | 16.2% | 9.6% | RH | 34.3% | 17.6% | 15.1% | L7Days | 39.9% | 22.0% | 22.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.5% | 14.7% | 12.4% | RH | 30.9% | 15.1% | 11.2% | L7Days | 32.8% | 16.0% | 15.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 35.2% | 9.1% | 16.9% | LH | 30.8% | 9.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 35.3% | 10.8% | 16.3% |
| Astros | Home | 31.1% | 15.3% | 13.5% | RH | 33.7% | 15.9% | 16.2% | L7Days | 33.0% | 12.3% | 14.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.3% | 13.9% | 13.8% | LH | 28.0% | 14.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 25.9% | 13.3% | 1.8% |
| Padres | Road | 29.9% | 14.4% | 8.6% | RH | 29.0% | 13.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 28.0% | 7.4% | -1.0% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.6% | 14.3% | 17.5% | RH | 35.6% | 14.9% | 20.0% | L7Days | 30.9% | 8.8% | 11.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.3% | 18.0% | 11.9% | RH | 33.3% | 19.0% | 14.2% | L7Days | 30.4% | 9.5% | 14.8% |
| Indians | Home | 31.1% | 12.8% | 13.2% | LH | 31.5% | 12.9% | 13.6% | L7Days | 29.1% | 15.4% | 12.5% |
| Royals | Home | 30.9% | 10.5% | 11.2% | LH | 30.8% | 12.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 28.8% | 7.2% | 9.4% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.7% | 11.4% | 13.9% | RH | 30.3% | 12.6% | 12.3% | L7Days | 34.4% | 9.1% | 19.0% |
| Angels | Home | 29.2% | 13.6% | 10.5% | RH | 31.1% | 13.7% | 11.7% | L7Days | 32.0% | 12.9% | 14.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 30.9% | 15.5% | 10.2% | RH | 32.1% | 15.4% | 11.5% | L7Days | 33.7% | 10.9% | 10.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 34.8% | 12.2% | 17.4% | RH | 40.1% | 11.4% | 24.7% | L7Days | 35.2% | 15.7% | 17.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.8% | 9.9% | 10.2% | LH | 29.5% | 14.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 26.2% | 13.1% | 7.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.4% | 15.4% | 13.0% | RH | 31.9% | 15.2% | 15.0% | L7Days | 32.0% | 14.0% | 16.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.8% | 14.1% | 10.8% | LH | 32.1% | 15.8% | 15.0% | L7Days | 29.0% | 17.4% | 13.8% |
| Twins | Home | 33.3% | 11.1% | 16.5% | LH | 29.1% | 9.3% | 10.0% | L7Days | 27.2% | 6.6% | 10.0% |
| Reds | Home | 28.3% | 15.1% | 6.6% | RH | 29.7% | 14.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 31.5% | 15.0% | 11.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.2% | 15.0% | 10.5% | RH | 31.9% | 15.1% | 12.0% | L7Days | 30.6% | 14.6% | 8.1% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.7% | 16.4% | 14.6% | RH | 31.1% | 14.7% | 13.3% | L7Days | 33.3% | 19.6% | 14.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | LH | 30.9% | 13.0% | 10.9% | L7Days | 26.5% | 9.1% | 6.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.4% | 12.0% | 12.9% | RH | 31.4% | 16.6% | 12.5% | L7Days | 25.6% | 15.8% | 4.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 34.4% | 12.3% | 15.6% | RH | 33.3% | 14.8% | 16.7% | L7Days | 37.3% | 9.6% | 23.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 32.3% | 17.0% | 13.2% | RH | 30.1% | 13.4% | 10.2% | L7Days | 29.0% | 10.6% | 5.1% |
| Mets | Home | 33.7% | 11.2% | 15.0% | RH | 35.0% | 12.9% | 17.8% | L7Days | 35.3% | 13.0% | 22.5% |
| Rays | Home | 37.7% | 16.1% | 19.6% | RH | 35.3% | 17.7% | 17.4% | L7Days | 25.0% | 15.1% | 1.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 17.6% | 9.8% | 1.80 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 2.23 |
| Anthony Banda | ARI | 21.7% | 8.5% | 2.55 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 2.55 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 25.2% | 11.0% | 2.29 | 37.0% | 13.0% | 2.85 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 13.0% | 4.9% | 2.65 | 8.7% | 5.0% | 1.74 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 32.1% | 12.3% | 2.61 | 26.2% | 9.3% | 2.82 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 28.4% | 11.6% | 2.45 | 30.4% | 10.6% | 2.87 |
| Cesar Valdez | TOR | 16.4% | 11.4% | 1.44 | 22.8% | 12.5% | 1.82 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 26.3% | 11.7% | 2.25 | 26.0% | 11.0% | 2.36 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 15.1% | 8.1% | 1.86 | 23.7% | 11.3% | 2.10 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 28.5% | 13.7% | 2.08 | 27.0% | 11.9% | 2.27 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 23.0% | 11.9% | 1.93 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 1.60 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 18.3% | 11.6% | 1.58 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 1.88 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 28.7% | 13.0% | 2.21 | 34.1% | 14.1% | 2.42 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 17.6% | 10.1% | 1.74 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 1.49 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 20.3% | 9.7% | 2.09 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 1.95 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 22.1% | 9.5% | 2.33 | 25.4% | 11.0% | 2.31 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 20.4% | 10.3% | 1.98 | 30.0% | 14.5% | 2.07 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 14.5% | 7.0% | 2.07 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 2.48 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 20.0% | 7.5% | 2.67 | 19.1% | 8.4% | 2.27 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 22.9% | 8.3% | 2.76 | 20.6% | 5.3% | 3.89 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 14.8% | 7.8% | 1.90 | 9.7% | 8.9% | 1.09 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 16.3% | 8.1% | 2.01 | 13.3% | 6.7% | 1.99 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 16.3% | 8.9% | 1.83 | 21.4% | 12.0% | 1.78 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 20.2% | 10.0% | 2.02 | 27.4% | 13.4% | 2.04 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 16.6% | 6.8% | 2.44 | 18.8% | 7.5% | 2.51 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 25.3% | 8.4% | 3.01 | 23.9% | 7.7% | 3.10 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 13.3% | 5.7% | 2.33 | 13.3% | 5.7% | 2.33 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.35 | 17.5% | 6.4% | 2.73 |
| Yu Darvish | LOS | 26.2% | 11.9% | 2.20 | 24.8% | 14.1% | 1.76 |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL |
Madison Bumgarner had just an 8.1 SwStr% in his last start, but it was his highest since returning from the DL. His sample size for the season is still just eight starts, so we’re not overly concerned yet.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 5.11 | 5.04 | -0.07 | 5.28 | 0.17 | 4.59 | -0.52 | 6.38 | 1.27 | 1.74 | 4.37 | 2.63 | 4.49 | 2.75 | 3.68 | 1.94 |
| Anthony Banda | ARI | 6.35 | 4.39 | -1.96 | 4.84 | -1.51 | 3.68 | -2.67 | 8.56 | 2.21 | 6.35 | 4.42 | -1.93 | 4.84 | -1.51 | 3.68 | -2.67 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 4.5 | 3.83 | -0.67 | 4.53 | 0.03 | 4.65 | 0.15 | 4.76 | 0.26 | 0.71 | 2.56 | 1.85 | 3.1 | 2.39 | 2.44 | 1.73 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 7.7 | 5.1 | -2.6 | 5.08 | -2.62 | 5.09 | -2.61 | 7.48 | -0.22 | 5.87 | 5.41 | -0.46 | 5.46 | -0.41 | 5.1 | -0.77 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 2.62 | 3.79 | 1.17 | 3.73 | 1.11 | 2.53 | -0.09 | 3.66 | 1.04 | 2.42 | 4.12 | 1.7 | 4.25 | 1.83 | 2.76 | 0.34 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 5.23 | 4.45 | -0.78 | 4.22 | -1.01 | 5.44 | 0.21 | 6.50 | 1.27 | 7.32 | 3.93 | -3.39 | 3.97 | -3.35 | 6.6 | -0.72 |
| Cesar Valdez | TOR | 6.59 | 4.66 | -1.93 | 4.67 | -1.92 | 5.64 | -0.95 | 5.54 | -1.05 | 5.27 | 3.44 | -1.83 | 2.99 | -2.28 | 2.64 | -2.63 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.16 | 4.07 | -0.09 | 4.28 | 0.12 | 4.3 | 0.14 | 3.37 | -0.79 | 6.75 | 4.47 | -2.28 | 4.66 | -2.09 | 5.26 | -1.49 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 3.75 | 4.35 | 0.6 | 4.01 | 0.26 | 4.21 | 0.46 | 4.90 | 1.15 | 6.35 | 3.47 | -2.88 | 3.3 | -3.05 | 5.09 | -1.26 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.29 | 3.52 | 0.23 | 3.36 | 0.07 | 3.56 | 0.27 | 2.89 | -0.40 | 2.52 | 3.32 | 0.8 | 3.52 | 1 | 3.4 | 0.88 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 2.93 | 4.33 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 1.57 | 3.8 | 0.87 | 4.45 | 1.52 | 3.72 | 5.59 | 1.87 | 5.73 | 2.01 | 4.87 | 1.15 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 4.29 | 4.5 | 0.21 | 4.18 | -0.11 | 4.04 | -0.25 | 4.81 | 0.52 | 4.05 | 3.88 | -0.17 | 3.54 | -0.51 | 2.21 | -1.84 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 2.68 | 3.43 | 0.75 | 3.23 | 0.55 | 2.37 | -0.31 | 2.81 | 0.13 | 1.36 | 2.43 | 1.07 | 2.36 | 1 | 1.18 | -0.18 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 4.75 | 4.78 | 0.03 | 5.07 | 0.32 | 4.3 | -0.45 | 4.41 | -0.34 | 3.82 | 4.43 | 0.61 | 4.46 | 0.64 | 3.7 | -0.12 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 5.49 | 4.94 | -0.55 | 5.28 | -0.21 | 5.28 | -0.21 | 7.14 | 1.65 | 12.27 | 7 | -5.27 | 7.91 | -4.36 | 11.6 | -0.67 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.29 | 4.71 | 0.42 | 4.8 | 0.51 | 4.14 | -0.15 | 3.81 | -0.48 | 2.25 | 4.2 | 1.95 | 4.13 | 1.88 | 3.46 | 1.21 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 5.37 | 4.64 | -0.73 | 4.53 | -0.84 | 4.71 | -0.66 | 5.22 | -0.15 | 4.55 | 3.22 | -1.33 | 2.85 | -1.7 | 3.98 | -0.57 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 3.71 | 4.88 | 1.17 | 4.75 | 1.04 | 4.79 | 1.08 | 4.95 | 1.24 | 3.25 | 4.38 | 1.13 | 4.34 | 1.09 | 4.48 | 1.23 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.8 | 4.22 | 0.42 | 3.91 | 0.11 | 4.11 | 0.31 | 4.81 | 1.01 | 1.93 | 3.49 | 1.56 | 2.77 | 0.84 | 1.43 | -0.5 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.92 | 3.85 | 0.93 | 3.99 | 1.07 | 3.34 | 0.42 | 3.49 | 0.57 | 2.84 | 4.33 | 1.49 | 4.54 | 1.7 | 4.13 | 1.29 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 5.13 | 5.07 | -0.06 | 4.69 | -0.44 | 4.48 | -0.65 | 5.53 | 0.40 | 7.03 | 5.3 | -1.73 | 4.97 | -2.06 | 5.2 | -1.83 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 3.29 | 4.24 | 0.95 | 3.98 | 0.69 | 4.07 | 0.78 | 4.47 | 1.18 | 4.76 | 4.93 | 0.17 | 5.01 | 0.25 | 6.15 | 1.39 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 4.01 | 5.05 | 1.04 | 4.97 | 0.96 | 4.92 | 0.91 | 5.41 | 1.40 | 2.64 | 4.49 | 1.85 | 4.22 | 1.58 | 3.73 | 1.09 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 4.93 | 4.48 | -0.45 | 4.33 | -0.6 | 4.14 | -0.79 | 4.49 | -0.44 | 3.52 | 3.65 | 0.13 | 3.71 | 0.19 | 3.06 | -0.46 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 6.42 | 5 | -1.42 | 5.4 | -1.02 | 4.45 | -1.97 | 7.18 | 0.76 | 7.2 | 4.21 | -2.99 | 4.4 | -2.8 | 3.88 | -3.32 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 5.25 | 3.99 | -1.26 | 3.73 | -1.52 | 3.9 | -1.35 | 4.43 | -0.82 | 5.3 | 4.41 | -0.89 | 3.81 | -1.49 | 2.67 | -2.63 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 4.5 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 6.01 | 1.51 | 6.15 | 1.65 | 9.75 | 5.25 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 6.01 | 1.51 | 6.15 | 1.65 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 4.91 | 4.4 | -0.51 | 4.22 | -0.69 | 5.28 | 0.37 | 4.95 | 0.04 | 2.81 | 4.74 | 1.93 | 4.23 | 1.42 | 5.33 | 2.52 |
| Yu Darvish | LOS | 4.01 | 3.85 | -0.16 | 3.81 | -0.2 | 3.98 | -0.03 | 3.04 | -0.97 | 7.2 | 3.81 | -3.39 | 3.88 | -3.32 | 4.78 | -2.42 |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL |
Brad Peacock has minimized hard contact, but 3.0 HR/FB shouldn’t be sustainable.
James Paxton has an unsustainable 5.7 HR/FB. While his 1.8% Barrels/BBE is fantastic and does say something about quality contact management, it’s not necessarily very predictive. He’s never had great difficult with hard contact though.
Madison Bumgarner has a .268 BABIP well below what a below average defense has allowed this year. He’s generally around .280, but with a better defense and a slightly better profile (IFFB%, Z-Contact%). He also has a career high 81.9 LOB% so far and a 9.5 HR/FB that’s exactly his career rate in an increased HR environment.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 0.293 | 0.289 | -0.004 | 42.0% | 0.16 | 15.9% | 84.3% | 86 | 5.80% | 34.20% | 155 |
| Anthony Banda | ARI | 0.294 | 0.353 | 0.059 | 23.5% | 0.118 | 0.0% | 82.6% | ||||
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 0.293 | 0.264 | -0.029 | 27.8% | 0.178 | 16.3% | 85.1% | 86.1 | 9.60% | 33.00% | 94 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 0.298 | 0.359 | 0.061 | 44.3% | 0.204 | 11.8% | 93.0% | 87.4 | 7.70% | 37.60% | 298 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 0.295 | 0.290 | -0.005 | 40.9% | 0.205 | 9.1% | 81.4% | 86.5 | 4.10% | 28.10% | 171 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.288 | 0.324 | 0.036 | 39.5% | 0.235 | 0.0% | 77.9% | 88.8 | 9.90% | 40.70% | 81 |
| Cesar Valdez | TOR | 0.307 | 0.337 | 0.03 | 41.3% | 0.272 | 0.0% | 83.9% | 90 | 8.70% | 45.70% | 92 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.305 | 0.293 | -0.012 | 34.3% | 0.224 | 4.6% | 83.0% | 87.7 | 8.40% | 33.00% | 203 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.308 | 0.290 | -0.018 | 47.8% | 0.237 | 7.3% | 91.4% | 88.2 | 6.40% | 36.90% | 450 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.320 | 0.289 | -0.031 | 45.2% | 0.202 | 9.8% | 79.1% | 86.2 | 6.40% | 29.10% | 361 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 0.284 | 0.265 | -0.019 | 38.3% | 0.21 | 16.2% | 86.2% | 86.7 | 5.40% | 35.10% | 168 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 0.290 | 0.294 | 0.004 | 55.0% | 0.181 | 5.2% | 86.0% | 86.1 | 4.90% | 34.70% | 366 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.279 | 0.303 | 0.024 | 45.4% | 0.223 | 12.5% | 81.3% | 86.4 | 1.80% | 30.10% | 276 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.299 | 0.305 | 0.006 | 38.0% | 0.206 | 8.7% | 88.2% | 87.6 | 7.40% | 33.20% | 392 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 0.292 | 0.291 | -0.001 | 36.5% | 0.163 | 14.5% | 82.5% | 85.7 | 5.00% | 30.40% | 240 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.309 | 0.304 | -0.005 | 33.9% | 0.247 | 10.8% | 86.2% | 87.8 | 7.30% | 36.30% | 383 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.315 | 0.365 | 0.05 | 43.4% | 0.23 | 9.4% | 85.4% | 88.1 | 8.90% | 35.20% | 381 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.302 | 0.285 | -0.017 | 56.0% | 0.163 | 12.1% | 90.5% | 84.6 | 4.80% | 32.70% | 397 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.283 | 0.284 | 0.001 | 50.0% | 0.221 | 10.3% | 88.6% | 85.3 | 4.70% | 31.00% | 213 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.317 | 0.268 | -0.049 | 40.1% | 0.184 | 9.5% | 89.4% | 86.5 | 4.50% | 30.30% | 155 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.289 | 0.350 | 0.061 | 45.6% | 0.257 | 7.4% | 90.0% | 87.3 | 6.00% | 36.10% | 382 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.294 | 0.285 | -0.009 | 56.0% | 0.204 | 5.2% | 90.3% | 87.4 | 5.40% | 36.30% | 411 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.292 | 0.283 | -0.009 | 49.0% | 0.184 | 12.5% | 83.6% | 85.2 | 5.00% | 28.40% | 402 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.293 | 0.309 | 0.016 | 46.9% | 0.208 | 6.1% | 84.6% | 86.5 | 5.50% | 33.20% | 364 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 0.307 | 0.346 | 0.039 | 40.1% | 0.204 | 8.1% | 88.6% | 87.8 | 4.40% | 34.20% | 158 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.303 | 0.345 | 0.042 | 46.6% | 0.223 | 8.7% | 88.1% | 89.2 | 9.00% | 39.90% | 301 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 0.285 | 0.182 | -0.103 | 16.7% | 0.25 | 14.3% | 92.9% | ||||
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 0.297 | 0.307 | 0.01 | 43.9% | 0.228 | 9.5% | 85.9% | 89.5 | 7.90% | 42.60% | 190 |
| Yu Darvish | LOS | 0.280 | 0.275 | -0.005 | 40.8% | 0.226 | 8.3% | 83.5% | 85.7 | 6.60% | 32.00% | 366 |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | 0.300 |
Jacob deGrom doesn’t even have a low BABIP and has a fine profile. The defense sucks, but we’re hoping it will be better with the addition of an actual shortstop.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
There’s not much separation between the first and second tier guys today, but larger gaps between the rest of the tiers.
Value Tier One
James Paxton (1t) had a board leading 34.1 K% in July and starts August in a fine spot to start August in Kansas City.
Yu Darvish (1t) is in a nice spot to make his NL debut. He gets immediate improvements in park and catcher framing, while he no longer faces a DH either. Adrenaline may even add a tick to the heater. The Mets generally don’t strike out a lot, but quite a bit more over the last week.
Value Tier Two
Jacob deGrom (1t) is one of the top four pitchers on the board, but the highest priced in what would appear to be a marginal spot when considering park factors.
Madison Bumgarner (4) has looked better in recent starts, especially in his last one and he pitches in a great park, but we may want to be cautious here. His SwStr% still wasn’t very impressive last time out, though an improvement, and the Diamondbacks may not currently be as susceptible to LHP as the season long numbers show.
Value Tier Three
Brad Peacock is missing fewer bats, but still enough to be useful in a reasonable spot, though it may be more debatable for nearly $2K more on DraftKints, where his control issues could prevent him from getting deep into the game.
Ivan Nova has been having some contact issues over the last two months really, but is still walking nobody and is in a great spot against a weak offense that strikes out a lot.
Anthony Banda is an affordable prospect (especially on FanDuel) in a great spot in San Francisco. For those wondering about workload potential, he’s been a five to six-inning pitcher in AAA this season. He hasn’t gone less in any of 13 starts since the beginning of May, but only gone more twice.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
R.A. Dickey is not someone I expected to be on today, but then I looked at all of his recent numbers in combination with his contact profile for the season and then his extremely low cost on DraftKings and wondered how players can’t at least consider pairing him with an expensive arm. I’m still a bit lukewarm on his FanDuel prospects for $1.8K more and may pay some attention to individual Miami hitters career numbers against him (which I don’t have yet) because of the knuckleball.
Eduardo Rodriguez may be in a better spot than the numbers dictate against the White Sox and is still missing bats at the same rate as before the injury. Overall results have not been that strong, but there’s certainly upside if he can solve his new HR problem tonight.
Justin Verlander has shown some improvement over the last month, but not as much as his ERA suggests (85.8 LOB%, 8.8 HR/FB) and is in a dangerous, but navigable spot in Batimore tonight with some upside in a $9K cost.
Brandon Woodruff is a low cost pitcher with some upside making his major league debut in a dangerous, but high upside spot. The issue here is that he’s gone six innings in just one of his last ten starts.
Vince Velasquez was an auto-skip at Coors with all the hard contact until I saw the price tag. I’m still probably not using him on FanDuel for $6.1K, but he costs just $5.2K on DraftKings and has been good in two of three starts since returning, while the Rockies struggle with RHP. It’s still one of the worst spots on the board because it’s Coors, but may not be the worst.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window