Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, June 16th
This pitching board is ridiculously strong today. There’s an entire All-Star rotation in there along with some potentially great values. I have a feeling I’m about to make a strong argument for about one-third of the pitchers on the slate tonight and still omit some who may deserve your consideration. This may take a while.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 4 | 3.56 | 5.69 | 51.5% | 0.96 | 3.04 | 4.01 | ARI | 73 | 107 | 128 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 1 | 3.55 | 5.67 | 55.5% | 1.02 | 3.24 | 1.77 | CIN | 107 | 99 | 71 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.7 | 4.63 | 5.93 | 46.6% | 1.39 | 4.63 | 3.92 | SFO | 83 | 80 | 104 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -5.5 | 3.22 | 6.13 | 49.2% | 1.04 | 3.23 | 4.86 | MIN | 108 | 106 | 139 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -11.6 | 3.72 | 6.31 | 54.5% | 1.02 | 3.78 | 2.58 | BAL | 91 | 91 | 91 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 4.7 | 4.54 | 5.74 | 33.5% | 1 | 4.72 | 4.33 | ATL | 91 | 94 | 93 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 2.6 | 4.25 | 5.15 | 41.0% | 0.98 | 4.42 | 4.49 | TAM | 102 | 85 | 137 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 5.1 | 3.61 | 5.37 | 44.9% | 0.94 | 3.8 | 4.49 | HOU | 113 | 112 | 115 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 2.3 | 4.84 | 5. | 46.4% | 0.97 | 4.62 | 4.39 | PIT | 95 | 93 | 127 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.8 | 3.96 | 5.58 | 49.5% | 0.98 | 4.27 | 3.59 | DET | 120 | 99 | 96 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 8 | 4.15 | 5.77 | 35.0% | 0.91 | 4.85 | 5.21 | ANA | 104 | 91 | 93 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 6.7 | 3.63 | 5.66 | 46.8% | 1.11 | 3.17 | 5.73 | TEX | 97 | 70 | 85 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | -0.2 | 3.96 | 6.49 | 43.3% | 1.39 | 3.68 | 2.75 | COL | 81 | 80 | 85 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | -5.6 | 4.12 | 5.48 | 43.8% | 0.91 | 4.03 | 5.7 | KAN | 88 | 84 | 151 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | -2 | 3.47 | 5.3 | 55.3% | 1.03 | 3.42 | 4.01 | CHW | 88 | 85 | 120 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.4 | 3.89 | 6.37 | 42.8% | 1.03 | 4.49 | 4.65 | TOR | 94 | 88 | 90 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -4 | 4.58 | 5.88 | 45.5% | 1.02 | 4.43 | 6.69 | SDG | 76 | 85 | 143 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -3.5 | 4.12 | 5.72 | 44.2% | 1.02 | 4.12 | 6.48 | STL | 86 | 96 | 119 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 1.3 | 3.68 | 5.44 | 49.8% | 0.93 | 3.48 | 3.09 | OAK | 117 | 101 | 117 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -1.9 | 2.85 | 6.79 | 34.9% | 0.91 | 3.58 | 1.86 | NYM | 89 | 107 | 109 |
| Miguel Diaz | SDG | -7.9 | 5.38 | 2. | 46.3% | 1.02 | 4.48 | 6.72 | MIL | 96 | 96 | 89 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 1.6 | 4.23 | 5.69 | 41.9% | 0.94 | 3.84 | 3.59 | BOS | 99 | 96 | 132 |
| Nik Turley | MIN | 9.1 | 3.45 | 4. | 37.5% | 1.04 | 3.45 | CLE | 90 | 88 | 111 | |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -4.9 | 4.12 | 5.45 | 50.9% | 0.96 | 4.23 | 3.91 | PHI | 97 | 82 | 65 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -14.3 | 4 | 5.74 | 0.449 | 0.93 | 4.15 | 4.46 | NYY | 107 | 100 | 169 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 2.6 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 0.529 | 1 | 3.25 | 3.5 | MIA | 97 | 108 | 141 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 1.1 | 3.62 | 6.03 | 0.492 | 0.91 | 3.43 | 5.99 | WAS | 103 | 101 | 107 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 13.6 | 4.7 | 5.36 | 0.374 | 1.02 | 5.03 | 4.6 | LOS | 89 | 102 | 139 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | -7.4 | 4.68 | 4.9 | 0.44 | 0.97 | 5.23 | 4.81 | CHC | 86 | 88 | 113 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 1.3 | 3.26 | 5.96 | 0.602 | 1.11 | 3.9 | SEA | 96 | 106 | 96 |
Aaron Nola has seen a severe drop in his ground ball rate over his last two games (29.4%) with a 40% hard hit rate. Though velocity gives no clues, they are the only two starts this season he’s thrown fewer than 50% fastballs (specifically decreasing his sinker usage according to Brooks Baseball), increasing his curveball usage against Atlanta and then his changeup against St Louis. Considering his fastball is his only negative weighted pitch, you would think he’d have better results, but that’s the pitch that generates ground balls. He maintained a league average SwStr% with the new pitch mix. Perhaps he’ll reconsider against an Arizona offense that hits RHP well, though they’ve struggled on the road and will strike out quite a bit (25% on the road, 23% vs RHP). This will be only his third start at home this season, where he’s excelled since last year (20.5 K-BB%).
Alex Wood has seven or more strikeouts in five of six starts since the start of May with a 30.4 K-BB% and 75.3 GB%. Per inning, you could make the argument he’s been the best pitcher on the staff. He’s pitched at least two outs into the sixth inning in three of his last four starts, but is usually cut off between 85 to 95 pitches (96 is his season high). Nobody can debate that he’s been exceptional for those five or six innings just about every time out though. His 2.3% Barrels/BBE is lowest on the board. He faces a decent offense with a park downgrade in Cincinnati. They have some power from the RH side, but he’s been nearly as exceptional against RHBs (68.2 GB%, 24.7 Hard%) as he’s been against lefties.
Carlos Carrasco has struck out just seven of his last 43 batters, lasting just 9.2 total innings, though is velocity looks fine and he’s maintained a double digit swinging strike rate. While his ground ball rate has been just 35% in these two starts, he did not allow a HR with hard contact around league average at 34%. The issue may be that he faced two of the worst offenses in the league (White Sox, Royals) in those starts. He may actually have one of the worst matchups on the board in Minnesota, though their offensive prowess exists mostly through a high walk rate and he’s walked more than one just four times this season.
Carlos Martinez has struck out at least eight batters in four straight, though his SwStr% has not increased over his season rate in the last month. He’s also limited hard contact to 25% or less over his last two outings. The Baltimore offense has been a disappointment and just lost their most dangerous LHB, which should make this a more ideal matchup for Martinez, who’s struck out 31.5% of RHBs this year. While Balitmore has a perfectly symmetrical 91 wRC+ at home, vs RHP and over the last week, they have just a 90 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers too.
Drew Pomeranz has allowed a lot of hard contact this year. His 38.6% BBEs above 95 mph is second worst on the board, while his 9.2% Barrels/BBE is third. Houston combines contact (17 K% at home and vs LHP) with power. However, the trip to Houston represents a fairly significant park upgrade for a pitcher who’s been striking out nearly 30% of batters over the last month. He did get hammered in his last start by another powerful and predominantly RH offense (Detroit), but his curveball has been a strong platoon busting pitch.
James Paxton is another guy with a dropping strikeout rate in recent starts (just 20.3% since returning from the DL). The good news is that he’s had an 11 SwStr%, though even that’s been below his season rate and while his velocity is still in line with his season rate, it’s dropped in a bit in each of his last two starts. He’s been held below each of those last three starts, but has been above 90 in his last two. Now, for the good news. His 25.4% BBEs above 95 mph is best on the board, while his 2.5% Barrels/BBE is behind only Alex Wood. The Rangers have been atrocious against LHP (27 K%).
Jeff Samardzija is behind only Sale and Scherzer with a 25.2 K-BB% this season and has pitched into the seventh inning in nine of 13 starts this year and seven of nine since April. While he’s had some struggles with run prevention, his hard contact and Statcast rates are better than league average. Coors is certainly not an ideal place to pitch, but this offense hasn’t been very good against RHP or at home. I’d call Carrasco’s spot in Minnesota more difficult. That said, his worst start of the season came in this park (5.1 IP – 7 ER – 1 HR – 3 BB – 6 K – 25 BF).
Joe Biagini has a league average strikeout rate, resulting in a strong 14.4 K-BB% with a 59.8 GB% and 24.8 Hard% vs RHP in his role as a starter (seven starts). That’s essentially Marcus Stroman with better contact management. His 85.4 mph aEV (entire season) is lowest on the board. He gets the White Sox tonight (16.7 K-BB%).
Luis Severino is seventh in the majors with a 22.0 K-BB% and has struck out seven or eight in five straight starts, pitching into the seventh inning in four straight. He adds a 60.2 GB% over his last seven starts with contact authority around league average. While that could provide exceptional results with a nice park upgrade in Oakland, this is not an easy assignment. The A’s might strike out a bit (23.6% at home, 24.6% vs RHP), but also have a 17.3 HR/FB at home.
Max Scherzer has somehow gotten even better this year. He’s running a career high 35.1 K% with a his lowest rate of hard contact (27%) and highest GB rate (37%) since 2011. The biggest issue here is that the Mets may not be able to field a full team and forfeit. In that case, I don’t know how it works with daily fantasy points.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Junior Guerra (.219 – 91.6% – 13.3) should be in line for more strikeouts, so I don’t believe his estimators will remain this bad, but we’re still taking about league average at best, which may be worth his cost on DraftKings against the Padres.
Eddie Butler (.267 – 72.6% – 8.0)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Erasmo Ramirez misses enough bats to be useful against an offense with a 23 K% vs RHP and I really don’t mind him on most nights for less than $6K on DraftKings, but he allows a bit too much hard contact for comfort against an offense that destroys baseballs (49.6 Hard% at home, 42.7 Hard% vs RHP). He generally doesn’t go deep into games either, but has worked up over 90 pitches in each of his last two.
Sean Manaea generates swings and misses at an elite rate and has gone seven innings in three of his last four starts. I’d be on board with him as a fourth tier arm most days, but this is a tough spot, though the Yankees have strangely been just average against LHPs. For more than $1K less on DraftKings, I would still probably consider some exposure.
Steven Matz showed up ready to work, going seven innings on 98 pitches in his first major league start of the season. He held hard contact to just 20.8%, but with just a 34.8 GB% and two strikeouts. He’s been above average in both of those areas through 175 major league innings. He faces a tough Washington offense, but in a neutralizing park. I’d like to see a few more ground balls and strikeouts.
Daniel Norris has a league average SwStr%, but also a double digit walk rate. While his 42.9 Hard% is exceptionally high, along with his 88.6 mph aEV, he hasn’t allowed a lot of barrels. The Rays have some power, but less against LHP, against which they’ve struggled. They strike out a ton, but also walk a lot, which could run up his pitch count. Not ideal for a guy who has failed to go more than five innings in half of his last 10 starts. We have more than enough strikeout accumulators on the board tonight that we don’t have to deal with the negatives here.
Jose Quintana has improved peripherals over the last month, but was smashed in back to back starts to end May and while his first couple of June were a bit better, he still hasn’t completed six innings in nearly a month. The good news is that six of his 10 HRs have come in two starts with four in his first two starts of the season. Hard contact is below 30%, while his SwStr rate is back up near his career rate this season and even league average over the last month. He faces a disappointing, but predominantly RH offense. While he does not have massive platoon splits for his career, nine of 10 HRs have been surrendered to batters from that side of the plate this year.
Dan Straily generated 14 strikeouts in his fourth start of the season, the only time in his first eight starts with more than five. Then he exceeded five strikeouts three times in a row before just eight in total over his last two starts (48 batters). His 27.7% BBE above 95 mph is tied for second lowest on the board and the Braves don’t have a lot of power, but they don’t strike out much either. There are far too many better options on tonight’s board.
Nik Turley struggled in his first major league start in San Francisco and hasn’t even been a full time starter in the minors the last couple of years. The 27 year-old rookie has run up above average strikeout rates, but control has been an issue. He has had starts of 14 and 15 strikeouts in AAA this season, being called up immediately after the latter. The Tribe does struggle against LHP, but with just a 17.5 K%.
Sean Newcomb struck out seven of 26 Mets in his major league debut in the first game of a double-header on Saturday. The 24 year-old has a bit of prospect shine and has run strikeout rates above 25% throughout the minors, but also a walk rate above 11%.
Tyson Ross has not exactly impressed in four minor league rehab starts, walking as many as he’s struck out and allowing three HRs in his most recent one.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.3% | 6.3% | Home | 27.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 6.0% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 22.9% | 7.4% | Road | 27.3% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 0.0% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.0% | 7.2% | Home | 14.0% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 6.7% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 26.9% | 6.0% | Road | 27.1% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 7.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.5% | 8.1% | Road | 24.9% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 5.5% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.3% | 9.2% | Road | 21.6% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 2.1% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 21.3% | 7.9% | Home | 22.9% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 12.5% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 27.1% | 8.7% | Road | 25.8% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.9% |
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 15.6% | 9.0% | Road | 17.7% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 4.9% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | L2 Years | 18.0% | 5.6% | Road | 15.4% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 4.2% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.1% | 8.5% | Road | 21.6% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 10.6% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 24.1% | 6.2% | Road | 24.4% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 13.3% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 21.0% | 5.8% | Road | 22.7% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 1.9% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 20.1% | 7.4% | Home | 21.9% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 11.6% |
| Joe Biagini | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.2% | 6.0% | Home | 21.8% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 5.6% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.7% | 5.9% | Road | 20.5% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 12.8% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.5% | 9.2% | Home | 19.1% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 14.3% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.6% | 7.0% | Home | 20.0% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 14.3% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 23.8% | 7.5% | Road | 24.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 5.8% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.9% | 5.4% | Road | 31.2% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 43.6% | 5.5% |
| Miguel Diaz | Padres | L2 Years | 16.0% | 13.5% | Road | 20.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 21.1% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.0% | 7.1% | Home | 20.2% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 6.0% |
| Nik Turley | Twins | L2 Years | 20.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | ||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.6% | Road | 17.4% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 22.5% | 7.2% | Home | 21.6% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 9.4% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 26.9% | 7.7% | Home | 26.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 7.7% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 22.8% | 5.8% | Home | 23.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 7.4% | 3.7% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 18.5% | 7.6% | Home | 21.3% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 8.3% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 15.7% | 6.7% | Home | 14.2% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 4.4% |
| Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 25.9% | 9.3% | Home | 18.5% | 3.7% | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.0% | 8.0% | RH | 23.0% | 9.2% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.5% |
| Reds | Home | 21.4% | 8.7% | LH | 20.3% | 7.0% | L7Days | 22.1% | 4.6% |
| Giants | Road | 19.4% | 8.7% | RH | 19.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Twins | Home | 21.3% | 10.9% | RH | 22.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 16.2% | 7.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.4% | 7.6% | RH | 22.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.7% |
| Braves | Home | 19.0% | 8.2% | RH | 19.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.0% |
| Rays | Road | 27.1% | 9.5% | LH | 26.9% | 10.4% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.7% |
| Astros | Home | 17.1% | 7.6% | LH | 17.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 13.5% | 7.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.7% | 9.2% | RH | 18.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 14.0% | 8.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.4% | 9.4% | RH | 23.0% | 9.8% | L7Days | 19.9% | 4.8% |
| Angels | Home | 17.8% | 8.0% | RH | 19.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.0% | 8.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.8% | 9.3% | LH | 27.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 32.5% | 8.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.4% | 7.7% | RH | 22.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 24.2% | 8.4% |
| Royals | Road | 20.8% | 6.5% | RH | 21.0% | 6.5% | L7Days | 17.7% | 6.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.9% | 5.8% | RH | 22.8% | 6.1% | L7Days | 17.1% | 7.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.0% | 8.2% | LH | 22.4% | 11.3% | L7Days | 22.6% | 10.2% |
| Padres | Road | 26.8% | 7.1% | RH | 25.8% | 7.1% | L7Days | 25.6% | 8.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.7% | 8.2% | RH | 20.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 17.6% | 9.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.6% | 8.4% | RH | 24.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.1% | 7.8% |
| Mets | Home | 19.6% | 9.1% | RH | 19.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 21.4% | 8.2% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.7% | 9.0% | RH | 24.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.9% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.1% | 8.9% | RH | 18.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 17.7% | 10.5% |
| Indians | Road | 19.5% | 8.9% | LH | 17.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 17.1% | 7.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.7% | 8.5% | LH | 20.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 24.5% | 6.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.8% | 8.9% | LH | 23.4% | 10.9% | L7Days | 18.3% | 11.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.8% | 5.5% | LH | 20.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 17.6% | 4.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.0% | 8.7% | LH | 21.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.1% | 4.8% |
| Dodgers | Road | 23.5% | 10.5% | RH | 23.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 23.0% | 10.4% | RH | 22.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 26.8% | 11.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.4% | 7.7% | RH | 20.5% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.3% | 4.0% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.7% | 13.5% | 6.7% | 2017 | 28.2% | 11.9% | 4.5% | Home | 27.8% | 22.0% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 6.3% | 22.9% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.6% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 2017 | 21.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | Road | 28.2% | 10.3% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.5% | 13.9% | 15.6% | 2017 | 29.5% | 13.9% | 15.6% | Home | 29.8% | 15.6% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 33.3% | 21.9% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 31.4% | 15.4% | 14.8% | 2017 | 30.1% | 12.1% | 14.3% | Road | 31.7% | 9.4% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 0.0% | 28.1% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 2017 | 32.4% | 11.6% | 10.3% | Road | 33.8% | 9.3% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 0.0% | -3.1% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.6% | 11.4% | 16.1% | 2017 | 34.9% | 10.0% | 14.4% | Road | 32.0% | 15.4% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 14.3% | 15.8% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 35.2% | 11.4% | 19.2% | 2017 | 42.9% | 9.3% | 26.1% | Home | 39.5% | 16.7% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 55.2% | 13.3% | 38.0% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.5% | 14.1% | 10.3% | 2017 | 35.5% | 16.7% | 11.1% | Road | 30.7% | 11.2% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 20.0% | 28.2% |
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 37.2% | 17.9% | 22.6% | 2017 | 33.0% | 8.0% | 13.7% | Road | 38.2% | 14.6% | 21.5% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | L2 Years | 28.7% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 2017 | 35.3% | 12.8% | 20.0% | Road | 30.4% | 22.0% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 10.0% | 11.7% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 37.2% | 13.5% | 20.8% | 2017 | 39.4% | 14.1% | 23.8% | Road | 34.4% | 14.7% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 11.1% | 21.2% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.5% | 7.3% | 16.8% | 2017 | 28.1% | 4.2% | 12.3% | Road | 33.3% | 7.1% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 20.0% | 9.3% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 29.0% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 2017 | 28.3% | 15.6% | 6.4% | Road | 29.6% | 15.2% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 13.3% | 8.6% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 33.4% | 17.5% | 16.5% | 2017 | 36.4% | 19.8% | 21.7% | Home | 28.3% | 17.8% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 51.6% | 21.4% | 38.7% |
| Joe Biagini | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 23.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2017 | 24.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | Home | 26.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 31.4% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 2017 | 29.2% | 11.8% | 9.1% | Road | 29.1% | 5.5% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 0.0% | 12.9% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.7% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 2017 | 28.6% | 13.3% | 7.8% | Home | 34.1% | 9.3% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 13.3% | 5.4% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.7% | 14.7% | 11.2% | 2017 | 33.7% | 14.6% | 16.0% | Home | 30.3% | 12.6% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 20.0% | 18.9% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.2% | 16.7% | 6.0% | 2017 | 28.6% | 16.4% | 8.7% | Road | 27.7% | 9.6% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 20.0% | 9.1% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.2% | 12.5% | 8.1% | 2017 | 27.0% | 11.7% | 7.4% | Road | 31.9% | 12.6% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 12.5% | 21.4% |
| Miguel Diaz | Padres | L2 Years | 31.7% | 15.6% | 4.9% | 2017 | 31.7% | 15.6% | 4.9% | Road | 33.3% | 14.3% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 0.0% | -25.0% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 32.0% | 15.8% | 13.6% | 2017 | 29.8% | 26.1% | 10.6% | Home | 34.1% | 16.2% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 5.8% |
| Nik Turley | Twins | L2 Years | 37.5% | 0.0% | 31.2% | 2017 | 37.5% | 0.0% | 31.2% | Home | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% | 31.2% | |||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 36.0% | 16.7% | 20.3% | 2017 | 35.8% | 18.7% | 20.2% | Road | 34.2% | 20.9% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 27.3% | 14.3% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 34.1% | 12.5% | 15.6% | 2017 | 35.7% | 9.3% | 16.9% | Home | 32.5% | 9.3% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 7.1% | 37.2% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 5.9% | 0.0% | -17.6% | 2017 | 5.9% | 0.0% | -17.6% | Home | 5.9% | 0.0% | -17.6% | L14 Days | 5.9% | 0.0% | -17.6% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 28.0% | 12.2% | 7.6% | 2017 | 20.8% | 0.0% | 8.3% | Home | 33.7% | 17.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 32.3% | 14.0% | 17.6% | 2017 | 28.3% | 14.5% | 12.6% | Home | 32.1% | 15.1% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 14.3% | 9.0% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 29.6% | 15.9% | 5.9% | 2017 | 29.1% | 12.5% | 3.8% | Home | 34.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 18.2% | 21.6% |
| Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 24.4% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 2017 | Home | 42.1% | 0.0% | 21.0% | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.6% | 12.6% | 11.0% | RH | 36.8% | 16.6% | 20.4% | L7Days | 40.8% | 18.8% | 25.4% |
| Reds | Home | 28.9% | 16.0% | 7.1% | LH | 29.4% | 18.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 29.9% | 15.1% | 12.7% |
| Giants | Road | 30.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% | RH | 28.4% | 9.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 29.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% |
| Twins | Home | 33.5% | 12.7% | 17.8% | RH | 33.6% | 14.7% | 17.9% | L7Days | 32.5% | 17.6% | 13.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 28.4% | 14.2% | 7.4% | RH | 29.5% | 14.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 27.3% | 10.2% | 6.5% |
| Braves | Home | 30.4% | 10.0% | 12.4% | RH | 31.6% | 11.0% | 13.6% | L7Days | 30.2% | 12.5% | 12.1% |
| Rays | Road | 34.7% | 18.3% | 16.0% | LH | 33.5% | 12.0% | 11.5% | L7Days | 36.2% | 19.0% | 23.8% |
| Astros | Home | 29.4% | 16.0% | 10.9% | LH | 26.8% | 15.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 32.6% | 13.6% | 15.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.3% | 9.2% | 7.6% | RH | 30.2% | 9.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 28.3% | 7.3% | 9.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 49.6% | 14.0% | 36.6% | RH | 42.7% | 12.6% | 27.9% | L7Days | 38.2% | 11.3% | 23.7% |
| Angels | Home | 28.5% | 14.0% | 9.8% | RH | 30.6% | 12.9% | 10.8% | L7Days | 31.2% | 12.3% | 14.5% |
| Rangers | Home | 32.5% | 15.3% | 12.3% | LH | 29.6% | 13.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 30.7% | 19.1% | 12.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 31.4% | 15.2% | 11.8% | RH | 29.6% | 13.0% | 9.8% | L7Days | 30.2% | 9.1% | 14.8% |
| Royals | Road | 32.2% | 15.6% | 13.1% | RH | 32.7% | 12.9% | 13.6% | L7Days | 35.8% | 21.1% | 18.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 32.0% | 13.7% | 14.2% | RH | 31.2% | 13.2% | 12.6% | L7Days | 35.9% | 10.2% | 18.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.2% | 13.9% | 10.1% | LH | 30.4% | 12.3% | 12.9% | L7Days | 32.0% | 17.5% | 16.0% |
| Padres | Road | 30.8% | 14.6% | 9.4% | RH | 29.2% | 14.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 32.4% | 17.5% | 12.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.4% | 11.3% | 15.0% | RH | 30.5% | 12.3% | 11.5% | L7Days | 29.1% | 13.2% | 13.2% |
| Athletics | Home | 32.7% | 17.3% | 17.9% | RH | 34.7% | 14.7% | 18.5% | L7Days | 34.2% | 8.0% | 17.1% |
| Mets | Home | 34.5% | 10.1% | 15.7% | RH | 36.1% | 14.2% | 18.9% | L7Days | 38.9% | 15.2% | 19.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 38.0% | 18.4% | 17.4% | RH | 33.5% | 18.2% | 14.2% | L7Days | 30.1% | 19.1% | 7.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.1% | 12.4% | 12.9% | RH | 36.0% | 9.9% | 18.6% | L7Days | 40.7% | 8.3% | 25.4% |
| Indians | Road | 35.6% | 11.6% | 18.7% | LH | 32.4% | 12.2% | 15.6% | L7Days | 27.9% | 15.0% | 8.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.0% | 14.0% | 9.9% | LH | 28.6% | 15.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 28.9% | 5.3% | 11.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 32.3% | 13.2% | 14.6% | LH | 29.9% | 13.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 37.5% | 21.3% | 18.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.2% | 14.2% | 9.6% | LH | 30.4% | 20.7% | 5.8% | L7Days | 34.4% | 23.3% | 13.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 29.8% | 14.2% | 11.0% | LH | 30.0% | 15.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 32.9% | 15.3% | 19.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 32.2% | 11.2% | 16.2% | RH | 34.1% | 13.8% | 19.0% | L7Days | 32.5% | 20.6% | 16.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 28.4% | 13.4% | 8.2% | RH | 29.8% | 14.0% | 12.5% | L7Days | 35.3% | 26.0% | 18.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 32.3% | 10.3% | 14.5% | RH | 31.1% | 11.6% | 13.1% | L7Days | 35.6% | 7.5% | 19.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 21.9% | 10.2% | 2.15 | 22.0% | 8.7% | 2.53 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 31.2% | 12.5% | 2.50 | 27.1% | 13.5% | 2.01 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 17.0% | 6.5% | 2.62 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 2.82 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 24.7% | 11.6% | 2.13 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 1.82 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 28.1% | 10.8% | 2.60 | 29.6% | 10.0% | 2.96 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 24.2% | 11.3% | 2.14 | 25.6% | 11.6% | 2.21 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 20.5% | 9.1% | 2.25 | 24.6% | 9.1% | 2.70 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 27.4% | 10.7% | 2.56 | 29.3% | 12.2% | 2.40 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 16.9% | 8.7% | 1.94 | 15.8% | 8.8% | 1.80 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.04 | 19.3% | 10.1% | 1.91 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.26 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 2.16 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 27.1% | 12.9% | 2.10 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 1.85 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 28.7% | 10.9% | 2.63 | 28.7% | 10.5% | 2.73 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 18.2% | 7.9% | 2.30 | 15.0% | 6.0% | 2.50 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 21.4% | 9.2% | 2.33 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 2.15 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 22.8% | 8.3% | 2.75 | 24.8% | 9.5% | 2.61 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 16.5% | 10.5% | 1.57 | 14.3% | 10.0% | 1.43 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 14.2% | 8.3% | 1.71 | 12.1% | 7.1% | 1.70 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 28.0% | 12.1% | 2.31 | 28.5% | 14.7% | 1.94 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 35.1% | 15.6% | 2.25 | 39.1% | 15.7% | 2.49 |
| Miguel Diaz | SDG | 16.0% | 8.2% | 1.95 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 2.21 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 20.5% | 10.1% | 2.03 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 2.16 |
| Nik Turley | MIN | 20.0% | 8.2% | 2.44 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 2.44 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 18.8% | 9.6% | 1.96 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 2.40 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 26.4% | 15.1% | 1.75 | 26.0% | 16.1% | 1.61 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 26.9% | 12.5% | 2.15 | 26.9% | 12.5% | 2.15 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 7.4% | 6.1% | 1.21 | 7.4% | 6.1% | 1.21 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 21.0% | 11.0% | 1.91 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 1.81 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.01 | 13.0% | 7.0% | 1.86 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX |
Carlos Martinez can’t really support the uptick in strikeouts, but a double digit SwStr% is fine and on par with his career rate (10.5%).
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 4.4 | 4.08 | -0.32 | 3.95 | -0.45 | 3.75 | -0.65 | 3.01 | -1.39 | 4.34 | 4.06 | -0.28 | 4.02 | -0.32 | 4.06 | -0.28 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2.01 | 2.56 | 0.55 | 2.42 | 0.41 | 1.88 | -0.13 | 2.34 | 0.33 | 1.5 | 2.22 | 0.72 | 2.67 | 1.17 | 2.18 | 0.68 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 3.84 | 4.63 | 0.79 | 4.42 | 0.58 | 4.46 | 0.62 | 5.85 | 2.01 | 4.76 | 4.09 | -0.67 | 3.66 | -1.1 | 4.26 | -0.5 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.36 | 3.76 | 0.4 | 3.72 | 0.36 | 3.55 | 0.19 | 2.48 | -0.88 | 5.09 | 4.54 | -0.55 | 5.02 | -0.07 | 4.08 | -1.01 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 2.95 | 3.55 | 0.6 | 3.35 | 0.4 | 3.15 | 0.2 | 2.07 | -0.88 | 1.82 | 3.18 | 1.36 | 3.07 | 1.25 | 2.02 | 0.2 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 3.89 | 4.2 | 0.31 | 4.58 | 0.69 | 4.01 | 0.12 | 3.42 | -0.47 | 4.4 | 3.7 | -0.7 | 4 | -0.4 | 3.54 | -0.86 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 4.41 | 4.71 | 0.3 | 4.8 | 0.39 | 4.17 | -0.24 | 3.99 | -0.42 | 4.5 | 4.13 | -0.37 | 4.45 | -0.05 | 4.7 | 0.2 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 4.48 | 3.64 | -0.84 | 3.5 | -0.98 | 3.91 | -0.57 | 3.37 | -1.11 | 3.42 | 3.2 | -0.22 | 2.88 | -0.54 | 2.82 | -0.6 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 4.03 | 5.28 | 1.25 | 4.75 | 0.72 | 4.13 | 0.1 | 6.88 | 2.85 | 5.09 | 5.34 | 0.25 | 4.75 | -0.34 | 4.43 | -0.66 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 4.2 | 3.8 | -0.4 | 3.83 | -0.37 | 3.73 | -0.47 | 4.25 | 0.05 | 5.47 | 4.08 | -1.39 | 4.08 | -1.39 | 3.73 | -1.74 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 5.4 | 5.03 | -0.37 | 5.36 | -0.04 | 5.46 | 0.06 | 6.26 | 0.86 | 9.43 | 5.53 | -3.9 | 5.87 | -3.56 | 6.98 | -2.45 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 2.25 | 3.67 | 1.42 | 3.5 | 1.25 | 2.38 | 0.13 | 1.94 | -0.31 | 4.4 | 4.42 | 0.02 | 4.16 | -0.24 | 4.38 | -0.02 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.31 | 3.04 | -1.27 | 2.93 | -1.38 | 3.17 | -1.14 | 2.50 | -1.81 | 2.76 | 2.86 | 0.1 | 2.92 | 0.16 | 3.13 | 0.37 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 5.06 | 4.66 | -0.4 | 4.67 | -0.39 | 5.6 | 0.54 | 4.84 | -0.22 | 6.66 | 5.02 | -1.64 | 5.12 | -1.54 | 7.41 | 0.75 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 3.38 | 3.46 | 0.08 | 3.51 | 0.13 | 2.86 | -0.52 | 2.46 | -0.92 | 4.45 | 4.06 | -0.39 | 4 | -0.45 | 3.3 | -1.15 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 5.3 | 4.35 | -0.95 | 4.43 | -0.87 | 4.17 | -1.13 | 4.47 | -0.83 | 7.11 | 3.67 | -3.44 | 3.53 | -3.58 | 3.92 | -3.19 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 2.45 | 5.45 | 3 | 5.42 | 2.97 | 5.39 | 2.94 | 6.22 | 3.77 | 1.99 | 5.95 | 3.96 | 5.79 | 3.8 | 5.33 | 3.34 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 6.49 | 5.45 | -1.04 | 5.41 | -1.08 | 5.58 | -0.91 | 6.31 | -0.18 | 5.46 | 5.59 | 0.13 | 5.33 | -0.13 | 5.7 | 0.24 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 2.75 | 3.17 | 0.42 | 2.98 | 0.23 | 3.25 | 0.5 | 2.49 | -0.26 | 1.35 | 3.06 | 1.71 | 2.93 | 1.58 | 2.5 | 1.15 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.36 | 2.71 | 0.35 | 3.04 | 0.68 | 2.8 | 0.44 | 1.84 | -0.52 | 1.7 | 2.31 | 0.61 | 2.41 | 0.71 | 2.34 | 0.64 |
| Miguel Diaz | SDG | 6.92 | 5.38 | -1.54 | 5.91 | -1.01 | 6.24 | -0.68 | 6.15 | -0.77 | 2.53 | 5.29 | 2.76 | 5.48 | 2.95 | 3.5 | 0.97 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 4.29 | 4.39 | 0.1 | 4.36 | 0.07 | 6.1 | 1.81 | 6.50 | 2.21 | 2.48 | 4.25 | 1.77 | 4.14 | 1.66 | 3.33 | 0.85 |
| Nik Turley | MIN | 9 | 3.45 | -5.55 | 2.45 | -6.55 | 1.13 | -7.87 | 9 | 3.45 | -5.55 | 2.45 | -6.55 | 1.13 | -7.87 | ||
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 5.38 | 4.35 | -1.03 | 4.24 | -1.14 | 4.93 | -0.45 | 6.91 | 1.53 | 7.43 | 4.18 | -3.25 | 4.1 | -3.33 | 6.09 | -1.34 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 3.67 | 3.93 | 0.26 | 3.94 | 0.27 | 3.45 | -0.22 | 2.52 | -1.15 | 1.97 | 3.63 | 1.66 | 3.69 | 1.72 | 3.09 | 1.12 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 0 | 3.49 | 3.49 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 4.32 | 4.32 | 0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 1.86 | 1.86 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 1.29 | 5.99 | 4.7 | 5.75 | 4.46 | 2.98 | 1.69 | 6.80 | 5.51 | 1.29 | 5.99 | 4.7 | 5.75 | 4.46 | 2.98 | 1.69 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 4.34 | 4.5 | 0.16 | 4.85 | 0.51 | 5.01 | 0.67 | 5.87 | 1.53 | 3.52 | 4.84 | 1.32 | 5.01 | 1.49 | 4.53 | 1.01 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 5.13 | 4.79 | -0.34 | 4.98 | -0.15 | 4.82 | -0.31 | 4.76 | -0.37 | 4.23 | 4.68 | 0.45 | 4.69 | 0.46 | 3.85 | -0.38 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX |
Alex Wood may not retain a HR rate below 5%, but he’s only allowed 24 fly balls on the season so far.
James Paxton has an unsustainable 4.2 HR/FB, but he does pitch in Seattle and has just a career 8.2% rate.
Jeff Samardzija has a 26.1 LD%, which doesn’t make much sense considering a 15.6 HR/FB too while allowing hard contact less often than league average. His 67.3 LOB% is a bit low too, though he has just a 70.9% career rate. However, he’s never generated strikeouts at such a high rate.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.305 | 0.310 | 0.005 | 49.2% | 0.185 | 7.1% | 82.7% | 86.2 | 4.20% | 3.00% | 118 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.283 | 0.287 | 0.004 | 69.2% | 0.123 | 16.7% | 85.1% | 85.7 | 2.30% | 1.40% | 130 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.287 | 0.269 | -0.018 | 46.6% | 0.226 | 6.9% | 89.9% | 87.3 | 7.10% | 5.40% | 225 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.313 | 0.255 | -0.058 | 44.0% | 0.218 | 6.1% | 88.6% | 86.6 | 9.50% | 6.30% | 179 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.293 | 0.252 | -0.041 | 50.9% | 0.177 | 14.5% | 85.4% | 86.8 | 4.50% | 2.80% | 222 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 0.282 | 0.263 | -0.019 | 35.4% | 0.177 | 16.7% | 85.3% | 86.2 | 7.20% | 4.70% | 195 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.311 | 0.345 | 0.034 | 41.5% | 0.21 | 8.0% | 89.4% | 88.6 | 6.90% | 4.70% | 189 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.315 | 0.340 | 0.025 | 41.4% | 0.231 | 8.3% | 85.3% | 88.1 | 9.20% | 5.80% | 153 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 0.294 | 0.267 | -0.027 | 46.0% | 0.253 | 12.0% | 89.9% | 86.3 | 5.70% | 4.00% | 88 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.293 | 0.299 | 0.006 | 50.7% | 0.176 | 2.1% | 86.2% | 87.3 | 8.00% | 6.00% | 150 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.301 | 0.228 | -0.073 | 37.5% | 0.138 | 7.7% | 82.4% | 89.8 | 11.90% | 8.00% | 160 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.287 | 0.292 | 0.005 | 43.5% | 0.217 | 10.4% | 79.8% | 86 | 2.50% | 1.60% | 122 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.313 | 0.326 | 0.013 | 40.4% | 0.261 | 9.1% | 82.8% | 85.9 | 6.00% | 4.00% | 233 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 0.291 | 0.271 | -0.02 | 43.3% | 0.195 | 3.5% | 86.7% | 89.3 | 10.00% | 7.50% | 219 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 0.302 | 0.264 | -0.038 | 59.4% | 0.138 | 4.7% | 89.8% | 85.4 | 3.10% | 2.20% | 162 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.280 | 0.311 | 0.031 | 40.9% | 0.195 | 16.5% | 89.5% | 86.8 | 5.90% | 4.00% | 202 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.306 | 0.219 | -0.087 | 43.4% | 0.171 | 10.0% | 85.7% | 87.5 | 5.20% | 3.70% | 77 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.313 | 0.363 | 0.05 | 43.7% | 0.231 | 11.0% | 86.3% | 88.8 | 9.40% | 7.10% | 233 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.279 | 0.267 | -0.012 | 54.7% | 0.167 | 7.3% | 84.4% | 87.3 | 7.70% | 5.00% | 196 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.297 | 0.238 | -0.059 | 37.0% | 0.16 | 11.7% | 78.4% | 86.1 | 6.40% | 3.70% | 188 |
| Miguel Diaz | SDG | 0.301 | 0.260 | -0.041 | 46.3% | 0.146 | 18.8% | 85.6% | 85.7 | 8.50% | 5.90% | 82 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.292 | 0.275 | -0.017 | 47.2% | 0.174 | 7.2% | 85.5% | 86.2 | 8.50% | 6.00% | 199 |
| Nik Turley | MIN | 0.284 | 0.500 | 0.216 | 37.5% | 0.438 | 0.0% | 80.8% | ||||
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.289 | 0.343 | 0.054 | 49.4% | 0.195 | 9.3% | 87.3% | 89.4 | 7.80% | 5.80% | 244 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.295 | 0.240 | -0.055 | 46.7% | 0.178 | 3.7% | 82.5% | 87.8 | 4.50% | 2.80% | 154 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 0.284 | 0.235 | -0.049 | 52.9% | 0.176 | 20.0% | 84.4% | ||||
| Steven Matz | NYM | 0.319 | 0.208 | -0.111 | 34.8% | 0.174 | 0.0% | 90.9% | ||||
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.282 | 0.252 | -0.03 | 38.7% | 0.147 | 3.9% | 83.6% | 86.1 | 6.10% | 4.20% | 148 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 0.304 | 0.285 | -0.019 | 43.6% | 0.205 | 19.6% | 89.4% | 86.2 | 6.30% | 4.90% | 158 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 0.283 |
Carlos Carrasco probably has no business with a BABIP nearly 50 points below his career rate, but his ground balls are down.
Carlos Martinez also has a BABIP 50 points below his career rate. His GB rate has dropped and his FB rate has increased a bit less than five points, while his profile is also pretty strong this year. Lots of popups (free outs).
Drew Pomeranz is more than 50 points above his career rate, but has generated a lot of line drives and pitches most of his games in a difficult park. He’s not that far about his defense.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Alex Wood (2) only gives you 85 to 90% of a full workload at $9K, but the performance is that of a $12K to $13K pitcher.
Value Tier Two
Joe Biagini has been an above average starter and is in a favorable spot against the White Sox for a cost that’s still around or even a bit below average. He’s even worked his way up to seven innings in each of his last two starts. I’d almost like to create a Tier 1A specifically for him.
Max Scherzer (1) costs more than $12K on either site. He’s been in double digit strikeouts with at least seven innings in four straight.
James Paxton (4t) has not exactly been up to par since returning from the DL, but the velocity looks okay, if not ideal, while he’s maintained a double digit SwStr% and will be facing an offense with a 27 K% vs LHP. That should cover a cost below $9K with room for much more upside if he reverts back to form.
Value Tier Three
Aaron Nola – While a curious change in his pitch selection has not shown better results so far, he’s a good pitcher, who gets ground balls and strikeouts when he’s on, in a somewhat neutral spot at an average (FanDuel) or lower cost (DraftKings).
Jeff Samardzija does get some sort of penalty for Coors, but it doesn’t nearly take him off the board. This has not been an impossible spot to navigate this year, especially when you consider the price drop that comes with it.
Luis Severino (3) has been exceptional. Ground balls and strikeouts for nearly two-thirds of batters over his last seven starts, but he’s now the second highest priced pitcher on DraftKings and this matchup is not a cake walk despite the park upgrade.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Carlos Martinez (4t) has been pitching well, but I’d expect a bit of a decrease in strikeouts and he’s up over $11K on DraftKings now. With Chris Davis out of the lineup, this looks like a better spot for him against an under-performing offense that leans heavily right-handed.
Drew Pomeranz appears to be a bit underpriced (especially on DraftKings) against a Houston offense that has begun to come back to earth a bit recently. He got smashed in his last start by the hardest hitting offense in the league (the Tigers literally make hard contact the most often), but had been exceptional over nearly a month leading up to that start.
Carlos Carrasco has been a bit perplexing in his two most recent starts, but has at least continued to miss bats and has a pretty solid track record for less than $10K. Minnesota has become one of the tougher spots in baseball for opposing pitchers though.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window