Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, June 29th
At first glance, this looks like a fairly standard Friday slate. One early start off the board at Wrigley. One thing that immediately stands out is that Texas is the only extremely positive run environment on the slate, though there are a number of very power friendly ones. Let’s see what we can come up with.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | -7.7 | 3.46 | 5.4 | 49.7% | 1.00 | 3.63 | 3.11 | Diamondbacks | 91 | 107 | 68 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 6.4 | 4.32 | 5.7 | 49.4% | 1.03 | 4.00 | 3.02 | Red Sox | 100 | 97 | 154 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 6.1 | 4.54 | 5.3 | 36.8% | 1.04 | 4.43 | 3.76 | Reds | 102 | 95 | 128 |
| David Hess | Orioles | -9.1 | 5.59 | 5.1 | 34.5% | 1.04 | 6.55 | 5.72 | Angels | 108 | 107 | 56 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | -5 | 5.15 | 5.2 | 52.7% | 1.14 | 5.73 | 7.67 | Rangers | 99 | 90 | 107 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 5.1 | 3.95 | 5.5 | 35.6% | 1.03 | 4.18 | 3.88 | Yankees | 120 | 122 | 66 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | -5.8 | 4.75 | 4.8 | 35.6% | 0.91 | 4.33 | 3.61 | Pirates | 89 | 101 | 42 |
| Erick Fedde | Nationals | -4.3 | 4.23 | 5.3 | 56.9% | 0.99 | 3.95 | 4.35 | Phillies | 99 | 95 | 109 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 2.9 | 3.83 | 4.5 | 37.5% | 1.04 | 6.31 | 3.51 | Orioles | 90 | 83 | 78 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 2.8 | 4.70 | 5.2 | 48.0% | 1.01 | 5.89 | 5.64 | Blue Jays | 105 | 91 | 101 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 1.7 | 3.65 | 6.1 | 43.9% | 0.94 | 3.59 | 4.08 | Rays | 107 | 96 | 112 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 3.6 | 4.60 | 5.4 | 33.7% | 0.91 | 4.92 | 4.02 | Mariners | 106 | 106 | 115 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | -2.3 | 3.34 | 6.4 | 45.2% | 0.90 | 3.17 | 3.56 | Marlins | 83 | 86 | 96 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | -4.1 | 4.01 | 5.5 | 44.4% | 0.91 | 3.93 | 4.84 | Padres | 96 | 81 | 83 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.8 | 4.14 | 5.7 | 39.2% | 1.01 | 4.80 | 3.04 | Cubs | 104 | 104 | 106 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 4.9 | 4.66 | 5.8 | 39.4% | 0.93 | 4.85 | 3.14 | Cardinals | 95 | 96 | 100 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | -0.7 | 3.99 | 5.2 | 45.2% | 0.91 | 3.89 | 3.70 | Royals | 82 | 89 | 58 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | -3.4 | 3.67 | 6.1 | 62.0% | 1.01 | 3.49 | 2.06 | Tigers | 81 | 83 | 49 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 11.2 | 4.26 | 5.2 | 57.4% | 1.01 | 4.74 | 4.71 | Twins | 86 | 82 | 56 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | -0.2 | 3.67 | 6.5 | 51.0% | 0.93 | 3.07 | 4.34 | Braves | 110 | 95 | 101 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | -9 | 3.90 | 5.2 | 43.5% | 0.99 | 3.26 | 2.16 | Nationals | 85 | 91 | 69 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 4.1 | 3.78 | 5.8 | 50.1% | 1.00 | 3.29 | 2.12 | Giants | 85 | 94 | 79 |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 3.5 | 4.92 | 5.4 | 55.6% | 0.95 | 4.74 | 3.87 | Indians | 85 | 104 | 110 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | -4.5 | 3.59 | 5.2 | 36.9% | 0.90 | 4.27 | 3.98 | Rockies | 84 | 95 | 79 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | -2.1 | 4.79 | 5.4 | 47.8% | 1.04 | 4.49 | 3.84 | Brewers | 95 | 97 | 86 |
| Sandy Alcantara | Cardinals | -0.2 | 4.60 | 26.1% | 0.93 | 4.73 | Braves | 110 | 95 | 101 | ||
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 6.8 | 3.78 | 6.0 | 46.8% | 0.95 | 3.71 | 2.58 | Athletics | 85 | 107 | 112 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.8 | 4.16 | 5.6 | 43.3% | 0.90 | 4.06 | 3.58 | Dodgers | 100 | 102 | 129 |
| Wilmer Font | Rays | -1.3 | 4.54 | 4.0 | 41.1% | 0.94 | 4.72 | 3.45 | Astros | 127 | 115 | 117 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 0.6 | 5.31 | 5.2 | 43.6% | 1.14 | 5.29 | 5.45 | White Sox | 89 | 94 | 108 |
Quick Note: I just realized that Sandy Alcantara is still listed as a Cardinal because he hasn’t yet pitched at the major league level for the Marlins. He has just an 8.4 K-BB% in his first go through at AAA (14 starts) after a 9.4 K-BB% in 22 starts at AA last season. He throws hard, but is more likely to end up in the bullpen than the rotation in the long run.
Eduardo Rodriguez might be in the worst spot on the board (Yankees 122 wRC+, 11.3 BB% and 19.1 HR/FB vs LHP all split bests on the board and they’re not too shabby at home either), but fared well against the Yankees in his lone outing against them (5 IP – 1 H – 0 ER – 3 BB – 8 K) in this park and that makes some sense due to his reverse platoon split. His 26.1 K% is sixth best on the board and his .291 xwOBA is fourth best. He hasn’t completed seven innings yet this year, but did have a streak of six straight with at least 5.2 innings snapped. In fact, he’s only failed go that far in four of his last 14 starts.
Eric Lauer does not appear to be officially announced, but is expected to be the starter at home against the Pirates tonight, a team with a 42 wRC+, 18.2 K-BB%, 7.1 HR/FB and 3.1 Hard-Soft% over the last week. He’s completed six innings for just the third and four time this season in his last two starts and while his ERA has been cut in half over the last 30 days without the support of his estimators, the SwStr% and K% have increased slightly to bring him above 19% for the season.
Eric Fedde has essentially thrown the same game in all four starts. The consistency is at least impressive when you consider that two of them were against the Yankees and two were against the Phillies and Padres. The overall numbers are not very impressive and even a bit concerning (17.4 K%). His .370 xwOBA is more supportive of his 5.32 ERA than his estimators, though that’s not entirely predictive. That said, he’s in one of the highest upside spots on the board as the Phillies’ 26.5 K% and 8.6 Hard-Soft% against RHP are both split worsts today. He did have an 18.6 K-BB% in AAA too though this season.
Felix Pena has struck out 12 of 42 with a 15.3 SwStr% in two starts against the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays, reaching 83 pitches in his last one. The 28 year-old is no prospect and has been mostly a reliever in recent seasons, but did have a 26.8 K% at AAA this season in nine starts. He’s also facing the Orioles (83 wRC+, 17.4 K-BB% vs RHP).
Gerrit Cole hasn’t accumulated double digit strikeouts in nearly two months, but does have exactly eight in five of his last seven and fewer than seven only twice this year with a low of five. Five innings in his last start was only the second time he’s failed to complete six. He hasn’t remained untouchable, but he has remained good (29.6 K%, 3.7 ERA and SIERA, .321 xwOBA last 30 days). The park is actually a downgrade for him, but Tampa is a less power friendly environment than Houston and still negative for runs overall. The matchup is neutral, though the Rays do have a 14.5 K-BB% and 10.1 HR/FB against RHP that’s a bit below average.
Jacob deGrom failed to go seven innings for the first time in a start not surrounding a DL stint since his third of the season last time out when he allowed three runs and struck out six Dodgers, tying a season high three walks in six innings. That would seem the floor, but perhaps it’s even higher than that in this spot. His strikeout rate a bit below 30% over the last month, but his swinging strike rate has actually risen (15.9%) and at 15.4% for the season, tops the board tonight. His 2.9% Barrels/BBE and .258 xwOBA are both easily best on the board and also the Marlins (16.5 K-BB% vs RHP).
Joe Musgrove has allowed 11 ERs over his last 8.1 innings. He did walk three with a season low two strikeouts last time out, but this otherwise seems like a lot of BABIP. It does not appear that he was hit very hard. The Padres cure most ills for most RHPs. He offers a league average strikeout rate and quality contact management. They offer and 81 wRC+ and 26 K% vs RHP in a great park.
Marco Gonzales has allowed 11 ERs and four HRs over his last two starts, but those were at Yankee Stadium and Fenway. He did strike out 11 of 52 with just one walk in 12.1 innings. His reward is a nice home spot against the Royals, which might be the best park adjusted spot on the board from a run prevention standpoint. The Royals are below a 90 wRC+ with a 10 HR/FB both on the road and against LHP with a few more strikeouts (21.4%) when facing southpaws. They have a 29.4 K% and 58 wRC+ over the last week. He offers a league average strikeout rate with at least six innings in 11 of 16 starts.
Marcus Stroman returned from the DL from a six week absence to throw five shutout innings at the Angels with five strikeouts. Although he does not manage contact well and generally has an aEV around 90 mph (91.7 mph this year), when he’s right, he generally offers a league average strikeout rate with one of the top ground ball rates in baseball (19.7 K%, 59.8 GB% career). He wasn’t far off from those numbers this year (18.8 K%, 62.6 GB%), but the contact was just so much harder (10.6% Barrels/BBE, 51.8% 95+ mph EV). Tonight, he’s not in the highest upside spot (Tigers 21.9 K% vs RHP), but it’s a great run prevention one against a team that does not hit the ball hard (8.2 HR/FB on the road, 7.6 HR/FB vs RHP). They have a wRC+ below 85 both on the road and vs RHP as well. Over the last week, they have a 49 wRC+ and 3.4 HR/FB.
Miles Mikolas has struck out more than five just three times this season and not at all over his last six starts against some pretty poor offenses (PHI, SD, MIA). Ironically, his season high (nine) came against the Royals. That said, he’s been a quality contact manager, who generally pitches deep into games (fewer than six innings just three times and once by a single out). The Braves don’t strike out much (20.4% vs RHP), which kind of exacerbates the problem, but they’re not a terribly dangerous offense with a 10.6 HR/FB in a negative run environment.
Nick Pivetta has bounced back from a bad run in a nice way with 20 strikeouts and four runs over his last 12.1 innings against the Cardinals and Nationals, though most of the dominance was against the former and he has allowed five HRs over his last four starts. So he’s not risk free, but he doesn’t seem to have that reverse platoon issue against RHBs anymore (they were above a .400 wOBA last season), but now LHBs are giving him some issues (.347 wOBA). Still, there are just four guys who better his 28.6 K% on the board tonight. Over the last month, his .280 xwOBA is 74 points below his actual mark, which suggests he may not have deserved a lot of the punishment he received. The rematch with the Nationals is interesting. They are nearly at full strength right now (only minus Zimmerman), but there seems to be some rust in this lineup. They’re not fully oiled and running just yet. They have a 69 wRC+, 25.5 K% and 4.1 HR/FB over the last week. Going by wRC+ for the season, it’s a nice matchup, but even without a lot of their bats, the K and BB rates (road and vs RHP) are average or better.
Patrick Corbin struck out 12 in his last start, the fourth time he’s been in double digits this year. While he hasn’t been as consistent in recent outings, his 32 K% over the last month is the same as it is for the season. He’s been below seven strikeouts just three times this season with a low of five. There is some concern with the contact though. The Giants do strike out a bit less against LHP (22.6%), but they’re still below average and if we consider Arizona a neutral park now (maybe?), this is not a bad spot.
Trevor Bauer has double digit strikeouts in six of his last eight starts with a 38.6 K% over the last month that tops the board. He’s recorded a seventh inning out in 11 of 16 starts this year. His .278 xwOBA is 20 points behind deGrom for the second best mark on the board and he’s even managing contact decently this season (87.3 mph aEV, 5.4% Barrels/BBE). He gets a significant park upgrade in Oakland tonight, but the home team is tough (107 wRC+, 25.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) and don’t strike out a ton against RHP (22.2%).
Tyler Anderson has some upside in his SwStr% beyond his league average K%. His 4.08 ERA and .302 wOBA against on the road are much lower than his home marks this season with estimators a run below as well. I still can’t figure out how he’s gone from extreme grounder to extreme fly ball pitcher, but there’s a chance he’s a league average pitcher outside Coors with decent contact management (.317 xwOBA, 29.3% 95+ mph EV) and even though he’s facing a difficult offense, he’s getting a massive park upgrade tonight.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
C.C. Sabathia (.284 – 74.7% – 11.4 – 25% unearned run rate) struck out 10 Rays out of nowhere two starts back and has now completed seven innings in two of his last four with only two other six inning outings over the rest of the season. Perhaps their leaning on the veteran a bit more to save the pen with a couple of rookies currently in the rotation. This is not the series I’d expect him to have as much leeway. The Red Sox are now all the way up to a near league average wRC+ vs LHP. They still have a 15.5 K-BB% against them, but over the last week, they a league best 154 wRC+ and 15.3 K% with a 16.2 HR/FB and 33 Hard-Soft%. They also acquired another RHB last night. He has been the top contact manager on the board (83.9 mph aEV and 26.9% 95+ mph EV are both best) with a .296 xwOBA, 10.5 SwStr% and low enough price tag on DraftKings to make you think twice.
Francisco Liriano (.228 – 75.2% – 12.9)
Chase Anderson (.217 – 76.9% – 16.2) is facing a quality offense that does not strike out a lot in an extremely power friendly park.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Paul Blackburn generates a lot of weak (84.3 mph aEV) ground balls (53.3%) and has estimators half his 8.83 ERA (.356 BABIP, 43.7 LOB%), but those are still above four and the 14.3 K% greatly prohibits his upside. Sure, he may be worth more than his current cost, but what’s your upside if everything goes right? Five to six innings with a couple of runs and four strikeouts? That’s how many Padres and White Sox he’s whiffed in each of his last two starts. It’s not like he’s likely to get more against Cleveland.
Andrew Suarez has gone at least five innings with two runs or less in four of his last five starts. Those starts were against San Diego, Miami (twice) and Philadelphia, not exactly Murderer’s Row. While his overall ERA is about a run below his estimators, that probably changes when you adjust his strikeout rate down to meet his 7.3 SwStr%. It’s not like he’s some great contact manager either (89.2 mph aEV), while his Z-Contact rate (91.2%) is one of the worst on the board too. Still, I could find some merit in him if this game were taking place in San Francisco. It is not. Arizona is not the positive run environment it was and I’m not sure Arizona can currently support their 107 wRC+ vs LHP outside a couple of bats, but I just can’t find enough positives here outside of a few potentially faulty ERA estimators.
Ian Kennedy without the name Ian Kennedy is almost worth considering today. He gets the park upgrade, but against a quality offense with just a 20.3 K% vs RHP. He’s been better over the last month, nearly league average (21.1 K%, .337 xwOBA) and probably stands a better chance of success in a big park that can hold hard hit fly balls. Ideally, I’d like to see him at least a few hundred cheaper though.
Julio Teheran returned from a two week layoff to strike out 11 Padres in six no-hit innings and then followed it up by getting blasted for seven runs in less than five innings by the Orioles. I have no idea what he is or even how healthy he is right now. The spot is slightly favorable against an offense with a 15.0 K-BB% against RHP in a negative run environment in St Louis. More an interesting stat that catches the eye than anything else, he’s walked exactly three in seven straight starts and 10 of 15 this year (11.4 BB%), which makes me question whether everything’s right even more.
Wilmer Font is now an actual starter instead of an opener after two strong outings against the Yankees (10.1 IP – 1 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 9 K – 39 BF), but threw just 80 pitches in his last start (season high) and now gets the Astros (20.3 K% vs RHP, 3.9 K-BB% last seven days).
Dylan Covey looked like he was going to be a thing for a while, but his last two starts: 9 IP – 9 R (8 ER) – 2 HR – 9 BB – 3 K – 44 BF. He’s in easily the worst park on the board and there’s also a hip injury thing from his last start, even though he hasn’t misses any time.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | L2 Yrs | 23.0% | 4.9% | 16.4% | 28.4% | Season | 23.0% | 4.9% | 16.4% | 28.4% | Road | 22.4% | 7.2% | 16.0% | 27.6% | L14Days | 23.9% | 4.4% | 14.3% | 51.5% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 19.3% | 7.5% | 15.9% | 2.1% | Season | 18.6% | 6.1% | 11.4% | 1.2% | Home | 20.7% | 6.3% | 15.2% | 5.7% | L14Days | 24.1% | 3.5% | ||
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 15.4% | Season | 18.8% | 10.1% | 16.2% | 16.3% | Road | 21.8% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 10.0% | L14Days | 32.6% | 14.0% | 37.5% | 45.5% |
| David Hess | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 13.3% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 15.8% | Season | 13.3% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 15.8% | Home | 10.5% | 7.5% | 13.3% | 24.0% | L14Days | 14.0% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 15.3% | 10.8% | 19.3% | 16.6% | Season | 18.7% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 13.3% | Road | 10.8% | 11.1% | 20.8% | 24.1% | L14Days | 6.8% | 20.5% | 25.0% | 22.5% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 25.3% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 8.0% | Season | 26.1% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 6.9% | Road | 25.1% | 7.4% | 13.9% | 12.4% | L14Days | 22.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 3.1% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | L2 Yrs | 19.3% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 25.9% | Season | 19.3% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 25.9% | Home | 19.2% | 8.1% | 20.0% | 29.1% | L14Days | 24.4% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% |
| Erick Fedde | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 18.5% | 8.3% | 29.6% | 19.7% | Season | 17.4% | 6.5% | 17.6% | 20.0% | Road | 21.3% | 10.6% | 62.5% | 31.2% | L14Days | 14.6% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 13.5% |
| Felix Pena | Angels | L2 Yrs | 26.1% | 10.2% | 16.9% | 22.2% | Season | 25.5% | 7.3% | 23.1% | 30.5% | Road | 19.8% | 11.6% | 21.9% | 19.3% | L14Days | 28.6% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 24.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 11.4% | 13.3% | 13.1% | Season | 19.1% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 11.8% | Road | 14.5% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 9.8% | L14Days | 16.7% | 16.7% | 25.0% | |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | L2 Yrs | 26.2% | 7.1% | 14.4% | 9.5% | Season | 36.3% | 8.2% | 13.1% | 14.5% | Road | 27.7% | 7.4% | 16.0% | 11.5% | L14Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 25.0% | 4.1% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 23.7% | Season | 20.9% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 21.1% | Road | 19.8% | 7.8% | 13.3% | 22.6% | L14Days | 25.0% | 7.7% | 15.8% | 23.6% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Yrs | 28.6% | 6.8% | 13.7% | 9.1% | Season | 31.4% | 6.7% | 3.7% | Road | 27.0% | 6.4% | 15.9% | 8.9% | L14Days | 23.2% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 30.8% | |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 6.1% | 14.1% | 12.8% | Season | 21.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 15.2% | Road | 19.3% | 2.8% | 12.5% | 17.0% | L14Days | 18.6% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 9.7% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Yrs | 22.6% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 9.4% | Season | 26.9% | 4.9% | 11.7% | 10.3% | Road | 20.1% | 7.9% | 13.7% | 10.4% | L14Days | 34.0% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 13.8% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Yrs | 19.5% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 12.0% | Season | 21.4% | 11.4% | 15.6% | 18.7% | Road | 19.5% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 11.0% | L14Days | 38.6% | 13.6% | 16.7% | 5.0% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.9% | 5.5% | 14.9% | 15.6% | Season | 21.1% | 5.3% | 13.2% | 20.8% | Home | 20.6% | 5.5% | 10.9% | 7.5% | L14Days | 21.2% | 1.9% | 23.5% | 45.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 7.2% | 18.0% | 12.8% | Season | 18.8% | 9.6% | 17.9% | 27.7% | Home | 20.0% | 7.3% | 15.4% | 11.1% | L14Days | 23.8% | 4.8% | 13.3% | |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 18.7% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 9.6% | Season | 16.1% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.5% | Home | 15.2% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | L14Days | 21.2% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 48.5% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 18.5% | 3.1% | 10.0% | 14.1% | Season | 18.5% | 3.1% | 10.0% | 14.1% | Home | 19.0% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 18.1% | L14Days | 17.0% | 6.4% | 10.0% | |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.7% | 8.6% | 16.1% | 18.6% | Season | 28.6% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 17.0% | Home | 29.6% | 6.6% | 17.2% | 16.2% | L14Days | 38.5% | 5.8% | 30.0% | 34.5% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 24.4% | 7.9% | 15.8% | 18.6% | Season | 32.5% | 6.8% | 15.1% | 26.8% | Home | 25.5% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 17.5% | L14Days | 37.3% | 3.9% | 11.1% | 33.3% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 10.5% | 6.4% | 11.1% | 9.6% | Season | 14.3% | 5.2% | 14.3% | 14.8% | Home | 12.6% | 8.2% | 12.9% | 9.6% | L14Days | 18.6% | 4.7% | 12.5% | 21.9% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 28.9% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 13.0% | Season | 22.2% | 9.9% | 17.0% | 26.1% | Home | 27.3% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 17.2% | L14Days | 23.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 16.7% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Yrs | 17.8% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 13.6% | Season | 16.5% | 9.6% | 16.3% | 16.0% | Home | 19.4% | 11.0% | 16.9% | 16.7% | L14Days | 24.0% | 10.0% | 16.7% | 9.1% |
| Sandy Alcantara | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 25.6% | 15.4% | 28.6% | 17.4% | Season | Home | 21.7% | 17.4% | 33.3% | 14.3% | L14Days | ||||||||
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Yrs | 25.7% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 17.9% | Season | 31.8% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 22.0% | Road | 28.7% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 17.8% | L14Days | 36.5% | 7.7% | 18.5% | |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 7.2% | 16.0% | 5.9% | Season | 21.1% | 8.2% | 15.3% | 8.6% | Road | 21.4% | 7.3% | 19.8% | 12.2% | L14Days | 25.0% | 7.7% | 33.3% | -3.0% |
| Wilmer Font | Rays | L2 Yrs | 18.4% | 9.2% | 23.3% | 29.8% | Season | 19.0% | 8.1% | 22.6% | 30.1% | Home | 19.2% | 8.1% | 24.1% | 30.5% | L14Days | 23.1% | 5.1% | 11.1% | 25.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 11.2% | 15.2% | 10.7% | Season | 13.6% | 13.6% | 21.1% | 8.3% | Home | 16.2% | 9.4% | 18.3% | 15.1% | L14Days | 14.9% | 10.6% | 21.4% | 2.9% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | Home | 24.0% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 25.4% | LH | 23.9% | 9.1% | 15.6% | 26.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 14.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 21.7% | 8.2% | 14.5% | 18.0% | LH | 23.4% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 13.4% | L7Days | 15.3% | 7.9% | 16.2% | 33.0% |
| Reds | Home | 22.9% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 25.0% | RH | 21.1% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 19.9% | L7Days | 19.2% | 12.2% | 15.2% | 34.2% |
| Angels | Road | 19.5% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 19.4% | RH | 20.4% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 21.0% | L7Days | 26.5% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 13.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 24.6% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 24.4% | RH | 25.4% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 22.3% | L7Days | 24.0% | 6.9% | 12.5% | 25.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.5% | 11.3% | 18.4% | 21.9% | LH | 23.4% | 11.3% | 19.1% | 22.1% | L7Days | 22.7% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 10.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.0% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 14.4% | LH | 21.7% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 10.4% | L7Days | 24.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 3.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.9% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 8.8% | RH | 26.5% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.2% | 18.8% | 8.4% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.5% | 7.6% | 13.2% | 9.4% | RH | 24.7% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 12.1% | L7Days | 21.2% | 5.7% | 17.7% | 10.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 23.1% | 8.5% | 15.1% | 15.7% | LH | 21.1% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 16.6% | L7Days | 23.8% | 7.4% | 16.4% | 24.5% |
| Rays | Home | 21.8% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 18.2% | RH | 22.8% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 15.2% | L7Days | 22.9% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 13.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.5% | 6.3% | 13.5% | 10.3% | RH | 20.3% | 7.0% | 14.5% | 16.4% | L7Days | 18.5% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 9.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 15.7% | RH | 23.7% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 16.1% | L7Days | 26.4% | 7.7% | 14.3% | 15.8% |
| Padres | Home | 24.7% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 18.3% | RH | 26.0% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 16.2% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 20.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.3% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 10.4% | RH | 21.2% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 13.9% | L7Days | 22.9% | 5.6% | 19.6% | 27.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.1% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 23.6% | RH | 23.1% | 8.1% | 14.5% | 21.7% | L7Days | 26.0% | 9.7% | 15.2% | 23.8% |
| Royals | Road | 20.5% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 17.2% | LH | 21.4% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 18.4% | L7Days | 29.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 11.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 14.4% | RH | 21.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 19.5% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 16.4% |
| Twins | Road | 21.9% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 17.7% | LH | 24.3% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 12.0% | L7Days | 18.6% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 2.4% |
| Braves | Road | 20.5% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 17.9% | RH | 20.4% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 18.2% | L7Days | 18.7% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 20.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.8% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 14.7% | RH | 21.3% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 12.4% | L7Days | 25.5% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 10.0% |
| Giants | Road | 24.8% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 17.6% | LH | 22.6% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 21.4% | L7Days | 21.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 17.8% |
| Indians | Road | 22.3% | 7.8% | 12.0% | 15.3% | RH | 21.6% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 24.0% | L7Days | 20.0% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 20.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.4% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 15.5% | LH | 22.1% | 8.1% | 17.0% | 17.9% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.5% | 11.7% | 18.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 22.6% | 7.4% | 15.7% | 11.6% | RH | 25.1% | 8.2% | 16.4% | 17.2% | L7Days | 27.4% | 7.9% | 22.2% | 20.7% |
| Braves | Road | 20.5% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 17.9% | RH | 20.4% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 18.2% | L7Days | 18.7% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 20.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.0% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 26.2% | RH | 22.2% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 25.7% | L7Days | 16.1% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 23.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.9% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 14.4% | LH | 21.6% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 19.2% | L7Days | 18.9% | 10.5% | 22.5% | 16.1% |
| Astros | Road | 19.6% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 22.4% | RH | 20.3% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 17.0% | L7Days | 16.8% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 12.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.1% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 16.8% | RH | 25.3% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 10.2% | L7Days | 26.2% | 5.0% | 15.4% | 7.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 23.0% | 7.3% | 3.15 | 21.8% | 7.7% | 2.83 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 18.6% | 10.5% | 1.77 | 20.3% | 11.2% | 1.81 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 18.8% | 8.4% | 2.24 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 3.04 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 13.3% | 8.0% | 1.66 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 1.83 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 18.7% | 7.5% | 2.49 | 18.8% | 8.0% | 2.35 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 26.1% | 11.6% | 2.25 | 22.3% | 10.9% | 2.05 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 19.3% | 7.3% | 2.64 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 2.46 |
| Erick Fedde | Nationals | 17.4% | 8.8% | 1.98 | 14.5% | 8.1% | 1.79 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 25.5% | 14.2% | 1.80 | 28.6% | 15.3% | 1.87 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 19.1% | 10.5% | 1.82 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 2.09 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 36.3% | 13.6% | 2.67 | 29.6% | 11.6% | 2.55 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 20.9% | 8.3% | 2.52 | 21.1% | 8.2% | 2.57 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 31.4% | 15.4% | 2.04 | 28.9% | 15.9% | 1.82 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 21.0% | 10.0% | 2.10 | 19.5% | 10.2% | 1.91 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 26.9% | 12.1% | 2.22 | 31.1% | 12.8% | 2.43 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 21.4% | 10.3% | 2.08 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 2.72 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 21.1% | 8.8% | 2.40 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 2.03 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 18.8% | 9.2% | 2.04 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 2.77 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 16.1% | 9.7% | 1.66 | 16.5% | 9.5% | 1.74 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 18.5% | 9.2% | 2.01 | 16.3% | 9.7% | 1.68 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 28.6% | 11.9% | 2.40 | 28.3% | 13.2% | 2.14 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 32.5% | 14.5% | 2.24 | 32.0% | 15.4% | 2.08 |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 14.3% | 8.5% | 1.68 | 14.3% | 8.5% | 1.68 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 22.2% | 7.0% | 3.17 | 23.4% | 6.7% | 3.49 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 16.5% | 7.1% | 2.32 | 18.7% | 9.9% | 1.89 |
| Sandy Alcantara | Cardinals | ||||||
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 31.8% | 13.3% | 2.39 | 38.6% | 15.0% | 2.57 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 21.1% | 12.2% | 1.73 | 21.5% | 12.8% | 1.68 |
| Wilmer Font | Rays | 19.0% | 9.5% | 2.00 | 19.1% | 8.7% | 2.20 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 13.6% | 5.5% | 2.47 | 14.9% | 5.5% | 2.71 |
Miles Mikolas has just a 16.3 K% over the last month, which might even make him unplayable at his current price, but the SwStr% has actually risen to almost league average, which is encouraging.
Tyler Anderson has pretty consistently been in double digits with his SwStr%. A similar SwStr% last season produced a strikeout rate a bit more than a point higher.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 4.43 | 3.46 | -0.97 | 4.43 | -1.18 | 3.67 | -0.76 | 3.31 | -1.12 | 2.86 | 3.37 | 0.51 | 3.14 | 0.28 | 2.85 | -0.01 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 3.18 | 4.27 | 1.09 | 3.18 | 1.18 | 4.19 | 1.01 | 4.14 | 0.96 | 2.64 | 4.07 | 1.43 | 4.22 | 1.58 | 3.69 | 1.05 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 4.37 | 4.87 | 0.50 | 4.37 | 0.61 | 5.55 | 1.18 | 5.48 | 1.11 | 4.28 | 4.38 | 0.10 | 4.19 | -0.09 | 4.12 | -0.16 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 5.44 | 5.59 | 0.15 | 5.44 | 0.41 | 6.07 | 0.63 | 8.34 | 2.90 | 6.38 | 5.96 | -0.42 | 6.27 | -0.11 | 6.27 | -0.11 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 3.45 | 4.32 | 0.87 | 3.45 | 0.66 | 3.48 | 0.03 | 6.44 | 2.99 | 3.33 | 4.53 | 1.20 | 4.35 | 1.02 | 3.99 | 0.66 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 3.86 | 3.60 | -0.26 | 3.86 | -0.10 | 3.54 | -0.32 | 3.38 | -0.48 | 3.54 | 3.83 | 0.29 | 3.77 | 0.23 | 3.42 | -0.12 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 5.05 | 4.75 | -0.30 | 5.05 | -0.49 | 4.78 | -0.27 | 5.49 | 0.44 | 2.28 | 4.65 | 2.37 | 4.27 | 1.99 | 4.15 | 1.87 |
| Erick Fedde | Nationals | 5.32 | 4.06 | -1.26 | 5.32 | -1.60 | 4.24 | -1.08 | 4.29 | -1.03 | 5.51 | 4.23 | -1.28 | 3.89 | -1.62 | 5.18 | -0.33 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 5.40 | 3.53 | -1.87 | 5.40 | -1.60 | 5.33 | -0.07 | 2.73 | -2.67 | 4.00 | 3.51 | -0.49 | 3.37 | -0.63 | 3.54 | -0.46 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 3.94 | 5.05 | 1.11 | 3.94 | 0.89 | 4.88 | 0.94 | 5.11 | 1.17 | 4.50 | 5.64 | 1.14 | 4.66 | 0.16 | 3.85 | -0.65 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 2.56 | 2.68 | 0.12 | 2.56 | 0.32 | 2.96 | 0.40 | 1.98 | -0.58 | 3.77 | 3.71 | -0.06 | 3.8 | 0.03 | 4.58 | 0.81 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 5.09 | 4.44 | -0.65 | 5.09 | -0.55 | 4.65 | -0.44 | 5.31 | 0.22 | 4.97 | 4.68 | -0.29 | 5.01 | 0.04 | 5.34 | 0.37 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 1.69 | 2.88 | 1.19 | 1.69 | 0.92 | 2.14 | 0.45 | 2.32 | 0.63 | 2.00 | 2.93 | 0.93 | 2.57 | 0.57 | 2.21 | 0.21 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 4.59 | 3.98 | -0.61 | 4.59 | -0.41 | 3.49 | -1.10 | 3.96 | -0.63 | 5.81 | 4.34 | -1.47 | 4.68 | -1.13 | 4.12 | -1.69 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 3.15 | 3.26 | 0.11 | 3.15 | 0.22 | 3.25 | 0.10 | 3.54 | 0.39 | 2.10 | 2.85 | 0.75 | 2.96 | 0.86 | 2.57 | 0.47 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 4.52 | 4.67 | 0.15 | 4.52 | 0.29 | 5.28 | 0.76 | 4.63 | 0.11 | 5.40 | 4.57 | -0.83 | 4.52 | -0.88 | 5.27 | -0.13 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 4.04 | 3.75 | -0.29 | 4.04 | -0.55 | 3.56 | -0.48 | 3.39 | -0.65 | 4.88 | 3.73 | -1.15 | 3.71 | -1.17 | 4.12 | -0.76 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 6.80 | 4.03 | -2.77 | 6.80 | -3.03 | 4.23 | -2.57 | 5.02 | -1.78 | 0.00 | 2.06 | 2.06 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 3.39 | 4.24 | 0.85 | 3.39 | 0.87 | 3.89 | 0.50 | 4.05 | 0.66 | 2.40 | 4.46 | 2.06 | 4.29 | 1.89 | 4.07 | 1.67 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 2.69 | 3.67 | 0.98 | 2.69 | 0.78 | 3.20 | 0.51 | 3.50 | 0.81 | 2.93 | 4.03 | 1.10 | 3.97 | 1.04 | 3.33 | 0.40 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 4.06 | 3.24 | -0.82 | 4.06 | -0.83 | 3.21 | -0.85 | 2.70 | -1.36 | 5.81 | 3.41 | -2.40 | 3.32 | -2.49 | 4.24 | -1.57 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 3.24 | 2.81 | -0.43 | 3.24 | -0.63 | 2.85 | -0.39 | 2.72 | -0.52 | 4.99 | 2.80 | -2.19 | 2.43 | -2.56 | 2.48 | -2.51 |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 8.83 | 4.21 | -4.62 | 8.83 | -4.82 | 4.20 | -4.63 | 3.64 | -5.19 | 8.83 | 4.21 | -4.62 | 4.01 | -4.82 | 4.20 | -4.63 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 5.30 | 4.44 | -0.86 | 5.30 | -0.47 | 5.59 | 0.29 | 3.82 | -1.48 | 3.27 | 3.98 | 0.71 | 4.96 | 1.69 | 3.92 | 0.65 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 5.40 | 4.86 | -0.54 | 5.40 | -0.81 | 5.09 | -0.31 | 6.04 | 0.64 | 4.50 | 4.11 | -0.39 | 3.68 | -0.82 | 4.43 | -0.07 |
| Sandy Alcantara | Cardinals | ||||||||||||||||
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 2.44 | 3.04 | 0.60 | 2.44 | 0.59 | 2.24 | -0.20 | 2.44 | 0.00 | 2.08 | 2.34 | 0.26 | 2.34 | 0.26 | 1.40 | -0.68 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 4.62 | 4.29 | -0.33 | 4.62 | -0.33 | 4.70 | 0.08 | 4.77 | 0.15 | 4.45 | 3.95 | -0.50 | 3.92 | -0.53 | 4.29 | -0.16 |
| Wilmer Font | Rays | 6.46 | 4.29 | -2.17 | 6.46 | -1.69 | 6.56 | 0.10 | 6.35 | -0.11 | 1.64 | 4.64 | 3.00 | 4.84 | 3.20 | 4.10 | 2.46 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 12.08 | 5.99 | -6.09 | 12.08 | -5.83 | 7.91 | -4.17 | 9.47 | -2.61 | 7.84 | 5.45 | -2.39 | 5.4 | -2.44 | 6.97 | -0.87 |
Eric Lauer has an 89.1 LOB% over the last 30 days.
Eric Fedde has a .358 BABIP that has no support in the table below, but the overall contact has been a bit harder than you’d like to see according to the table below that.
Jacob deGrom has a 7.2 HR/FB.
Joe Musgrove has a .343 BABIP along with a 67.7 LOB% that are both a bit countered by a 7.9 HR/FB. There’s no support for the BABIP and with just six starts, this is probably all still small sample size outlier stuff.
Marcus Stroman has a .346 BABIP, 57.8 LOB% and 17.9 HR/FB. He was getting smashed, but let’s hope that was an injury problem that cleared up.
Miles Mikolas has a .256 BABIP. Let’s look below.
Nick Pivetta has a .326 BABIP and his 74.2 LOB% may even be a bit low considering his strikeout rate.
Patrick Corbin has a .355 BABIP and 62.1 LOB% over the last month. However, his .321 xwOBA is not bad, but 42 points above his actual wOBA over this span (it’s scary how much his numbers mirror Cole’s in the Statcast table), so he’s been a bit worse than the estimators suggest, but it would be difficult to say he’s been bad.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 0.297 | 0.331 | 0.034 | 49.7% | 20.5% | 7.3% | 91.2% | 38.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.279 | 0.284 | 0.005 | 43.4% | 20.2% | 13.6% | 88.6% | 32.6% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.267 | 0.217 | -0.050 | 35.4% | 20.8% | 12.1% | 86.2% | 43.0% |
| David Hess | Orioles | 0.324 | 0.269 | -0.055 | 34.5% | 18.0% | 7.6% | 89.1% | 43.8% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 0.287 | 0.306 | 0.019 | 60.0% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 91.7% | 36.0% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 0.290 | 0.312 | 0.022 | 41.0% | 19.2% | 4.4% | 85.7% | 37.3% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.302 | 0.362 | 0.060 | 35.6% | 28.9% | 7.8% | 87.5% | 42.2% |
| Erick Fedde | Nationals | 0.281 | 0.358 | 0.077 | 53.6% | 21.7% | 0.0% | 87.8% | 33.0% |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 0.297 | 0.364 | 0.067 | 44.4% | 19.4% | 7.7% | 82.3% | 35.4% |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 0.290 | 0.228 | -0.062 | 45.6% | 17.8% | 6.5% | 84.7% | 36.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.272 | 0.237 | -0.035 | 35.2% | 19.0% | 14.1% | 79.6% | 37.4% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 0.303 | 0.310 | 0.007 | 30.0% | 26.6% | 11.4% | 86.7% | 37.5% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.305 | 0.292 | -0.013 | 45.8% | 25.4% | 20.3% | 77.9% | 32.2% |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.292 | 0.343 | 0.051 | 44.2% | 19.2% | 10.5% | 85.7% | 36.7% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.300 | 0.251 | -0.049 | 39.8% | 21.2% | 14.6% | 85.2% | 30.3% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.281 | 0.229 | -0.052 | 39.4% | 17.2% | 11.5% | 83.7% | 38.0% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.295 | 0.328 | 0.033 | 45.1% | 27.1% | 10.5% | 86.3% | 29.8% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.304 | 0.346 | 0.042 | 62.6% | 17.3% | 0.0% | 89.6% | 31.9% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 0.266 | 0.251 | -0.015 | 57.1% | 13.6% | 7.4% | 87.1% | 27.3% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.283 | 0.256 | -0.027 | 51.0% | 21.6% | 8.8% | 88.8% | 31.0% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.301 | 0.326 | 0.025 | 43.1% | 19.4% | 8.6% | 82.8% | 35.7% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.277 | 0.273 | -0.004 | 44.9% | 24.2% | 8.2% | 84.2% | 27.5% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 0.275 | 0.356 | 0.081 | 53.3% | 23.3% | 7.1% | 94.6% | 41.7% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 0.298 | 0.303 | 0.005 | 32.4% | 21.6% | 10.6% | 84.4% | 36.8% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.294 | 0.286 | -0.008 | 45.3% | 23.4% | 15.1% | 92.4% | 36.3% |
| Sandy Alcantara | Cardinals | 0.283 | |||||||
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.285 | 0.302 | 0.017 | 45.3% | 18.8% | 9.8% | 85.4% | 32.2% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.314 | 0.290 | -0.024 | 36.5% | 24.6% | 7.1% | 83.2% | 41.9% |
| Wilmer Font | Rays | 0.268 | 0.289 | 0.021 | 42.9% | 15.1% | 11.3% | 86.4% | 40.8% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 0.300 | 0.364 | 0.064 | 29.2% | 31.3% | 5.3% | 93.6% | 40.3% |
Eric Lauer has seen his BABIP drop to .304 over the last month, but yeah, you’re not going to get far with a 28.9 LD% and poor defense. It seems batters are swinging at a lot more strikes than balls too (42.2 Z-O-Swing%).
Gerrit Cole has a .237 BABIP with a great profile and well-positioned defense. Think there’s some regression here, but perhaps not much.
Miles Mikolas is getting batters to swing at his pitches (31 Z-O-Swing%), which a 3.1 BB% will help you with (or maybe is partially a result of to). This is resulted in favorable contact and while nothing else in his BABIP profile stands out, it’s not too far below his team’s rate with a 51 GB%. Weak ground balls are good. Maybe he backs up 10-15 points.
Nick Pivetta is not that much above his defense. They’re part of the problem, just ask Jake Arrieta. His own profile is fine, so he probably deserves a bit better, but who knows if he’s going to get it.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 0.342 | -0.015 | 0.353 | 0.024 | 0.309 | -0.022 | -1.900 | 89.2 | 7.9 | 38.400 | 190 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.296 | 0.010 | 0.308 | -0.001 | 0.287 | 0.029 | 0.700 | 83.9 | 5.0 | 26.900 | 242 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.350 | -0.037 | 0.288 | -0.018 | 0.355 | -0.050 | -1.500 | 85.9 | 8.6 | 28.800 | 233 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 0.360 | -0.003 | 0.376 | -0.044 | 0.350 | -0.006 | -1.300 | 88.2 | 10.5 | 41.900 | 124 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 0.316 | -0.026 | 0.407 | 0.002 | 0.323 | -0.023 | -0.600 | 89.5 | 4.4 | 38.200 | 136 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 0.291 | 0.008 | 0.303 | -0.006 | 0.285 | 0.014 | -0.800 | 87.5 | 4.3 | 30.300 | 231 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.354 | 0.018 | 0.345 | 0.047 | 0.340 | 0.003 | -0.600 | 88 | 6.5 | 31.000 | 168 |
| Erick Fedde | Nationals | 0.370 | -0.009 | 0.405 | 0.056 | 0.380 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 88.3 | 7.1 | 42.900 | 70 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 0.338 | 0.040 | 0.402 | -0.005 | 0.326 | 0.012 | -1.300 | ||||
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 0.385 | -0.086 | 0.389 | -0.031 | 0.376 | 0.019 | -0.400 | 88.1 | 10.0 | 34.700 | 170 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.281 | -0.033 | 0.322 | -0.020 | 0.321 | -0.045 | -0.600 | 88.3 | 7.1 | 41.200 | 211 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 0.361 | -0.016 | 0.346 | -0.021 | 0.337 | -0.011 | 0.000 | 89.1 | 9.6 | 37.800 | 270 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.258 | -0.015 | 0.281 | 0.004 | 0.288 | -0.032 | 1.100 | 86.2 | 2.9 | 31.400 | 245 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.301 | 0.023 | 0.317 | 0.006 | 0.301 | 0.023 | -0.300 | 86.5 | 5.7 | 31.400 | 105 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.293 | -0.030 | 0.340 | 0.000 | 0.306 | -0.037 | -0.500 | 85.6 | 6.2 | 30.400 | 260 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.345 | -0.025 | 0.307 | 0.000 | 0.390 | -0.061 | -0.400 | 88.3 | 8.0 | 40.000 | 225 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.342 | -0.022 | 0.327 | 0.010 | 0.334 | -0.022 | -0.600 | 88.4 | 6.3 | 36.300 | 256 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.376 | -0.030 | 0.323 | -0.020 | 0.136 | 0.148 | -1.100 | 91.7 | 10.6 | 51.800 | 141 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 0.314 | -0.042 | 0.320 | -0.014 | 0.319 | -0.084 | -0.400 | 86.4 | 4.1 | 36.300 | 171 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.293 | -0.040 | 0.263 | -0.038 | 0.264 | -0.019 | -0.300 | 85.7 | 6.1 | 28.300 | 297 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.304 | 0.000 | 0.304 | 0.006 | 0.280 | 0.074 | 0.100 | 87.7 | 8.1 | 34.400 | 209 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.292 | -0.035 | 0.302 | -0.009 | 0.321 | -0.042 | -0.500 | 89.3 | 8.0 | 39.100 | 238 |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 0.346 | 0.025 | 0.334 | 0.024 | 0.346 | 0.025 | -0.300 | 84.3 | 4.7 | 30.200 | 43 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 0.384 | -0.023 | 0.316 | -0.027 | 0.294 | -0.015 | -0.700 | 85.7 | 10.9 | 38.000 | 92 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.360 | -0.019 | 0.321 | 0.014 | 0.363 | -0.030 | -1.000 | 88.8 | 8.1 | 35.500 | 259 |
| Sandy Alcantara | Cardinals | 0.421 | -0.008 | |||||||||
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.278 | -0.017 | 0.300 | 0.006 | 0.235 | 0.019 | -0.700 | 87.3 | 5.4 | 30.400 | 260 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.317 | 0.019 | 0.315 | 0.019 | 0.324 | 0.016 | -0.400 | 86.3 | 4.7 | 29.300 | 256 |
| Wilmer Font | Rays | 0.348 | 0.028 | 0.372 | 0.041 | 0.315 | -0.057 | 0.600 | 91.1 | 7.9 | 41.300 | 126 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 0.382 | 0.069 | 0.369 | 0.001 | 0.321 | 0.059 | -0.700 | 86 | 4.2 | 31.300 | 48 |
The most interesting take away for me here today is the high number of low xwOBA and low aEV pitchers today. Ten are below a .305 xwOBA and 11 are at 86.5 mph or less, though all are not the same pitchers. Most of these guys seem to be stacked toward the middle of the table though.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Joe Musgrove (5t) costs less than $8K in San Diego. He’s not likely to give you near double digit strikeouts tonight, but could get you six to eight in this spot and up to seven innings of quality contact management in a great spot.
Value Tier Two
Marcus Stroman is definitely worth taking a shot with. If he’s healthy, he can blow past this price in this spot. I’d actually like to put him in the top spot if we’d had more than one start back, but he threw just 81 pitches last time out.
Jacob deGrom (1) gets the Marlins, easily the best matchup among tonight’s high end pitchers, but is the most expensive of three pitchers who reach the $13K mark on DraftKings tonight.
Nick Pivetta (5t) may be pitching better than the recent results, but since the defense is part of the problem, who knows where that goes. There’s also the issue that the matchup is difficult to judge. What the hell are the Nationals right now? However, nobody with a higher strikeout rate has a lower price. I would drop him down a tier on DraftKings for $9.5K though.
Value Tier Three
Patrick Corbin (4) is the only member of the 30 K% club who isn’t also in the $11K FD and $13K DK club. He probably does carry a bit more risk than the other members, both inherently and in this particular matchup, but it would not be a shock if he matched the upside of anyone on the board.
Marco Gonzales (8) gets a really good spot after two terrible ones at a cost below $8K. If he’s a league average arm, there’s certainly some value here. Don’t expect him to approach double digit strikeouts, but seven quality innings is firmly on the table.
Trevor Bauer (2) is currently the hottest of the high end pitchers, but may be in the lowest upside spot. Overall, the matchup is equal to Corbin’s, but at a much higher price.
Tyler Anderson is a cheap arm with a shot at some upside outside Coors. He misses bats and manages contact well. It would seem the results could be a lot better. He faces a difficult offense, but with one of the biggest park upgrades available.
Miles Mikolas (7) is not exactly in a comfort range for his lack of upside at more than $9K on DraftKings, but and that’s not likely to increase against the Braves, but he rarely bombs. Six to seven quality innings is the most likely result here.
Eric Fedde hasn’t been great, but is a prospect of some note and cheap in a potentially high upside spot. It wasn’t in his last start, when he struck out just three Phillies, but he doesn’t need to do much more than that if he copies the three earned in six innings to cover a cost below $6K tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Francisco Pena is not here because he’s missed a lot of bats through two starts and we suddenly believe in that from a 28 year-old converted reliever. It’s more a combination of that, a low price, his high strikeout rate at AAA and mostly the Orioles that make him worth a shot.
Eduardo Rodriguez is probably in the worst spot in the board (as mentioned above), but the reverse split helps here and nobody with a lower xwOBA is priced less than $10K, while three of the other four pitchers with a higher strikeout rate are at least $2K more expensive (the other is at least $500 more).
Gerrit Cole (3) remains a high quality arm. A 29.6 K% over the last month is nothing to spit at, but instead of seven innings with 10 strikeouts, he’s been more six with a few earned runs and eight strikeouts for about half his season now (eight or nine starts). The problem is that his cost still demands dominance.
Eric Lauer has improved slightly, though not nearly as much as his ERA suggest over the last month. None the less, this is a cheap arm (especially on DraftKings) in a potentially strong spot.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.