Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, May 25th
Available for your daily fantasy pleasure on Friday are pitchers from all ends of the spectrum. Max Scherzer all the way to “who the hell is this guy”? There are some good/great pitchers in some tough matchups tonight and that’s not even considering Coors yet, but beware that matchups and pricing may not be ideal in most cases. The Rays are doing their funky “Opener” thing again too…all weekend. Figuring it would do nobody any good to actually list Romo here, I’m going with the guy expected to pitch the most innings against Baltimore tonight, according to a late Thursday night Twitter search.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 6.3 | 3.69 | 5.2 | 36.0% | 1.03 | 4.66 | 3.38 | Yankees | 125 | 121 | 167 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | -5.5 | 4.12 | 6.1 | 59.3% | 0.90 | 4.01 | 2.45 | Dodgers | 91 | 87 | 99 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 10.2 | 3.02 | 7.0 | 44.0% | 1.06 | 2.33 | 2.61 | Astros | 120 | 106 | 134 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 9.5 | 3.63 | 6.4 | 61.4% | 1.06 | 3.47 | 3.31 | Indians | 120 | 113 | 74 |
| David Hess | Orioles | -7.7 | 4.76 | 5.1 | 41.0% | 0.92 | 6.12 | 4.76 | Rays | 96 | 103 | 94 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | -6.8 | 5.20 | 5.2 | 38.3% | 1.01 | 5.72 | 5.02 | Cubs | 112 | 105 | 125 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 4.8 | 4.07 | 5.5 | 34.8% | 1.10 | 3.99 | 3.06 | Braves | 112 | 129 | 74 |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | 1.4 | 4.80 | 4.5 | 40.8% | 1.15 | 5.42 | 4.53 | Rangers | 84 | 87 | 83 |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | -4 | 4.22 | 5.3 | 52.8% | 0.92 | 3.31 | 4.94 | Mariners | 98 | 101 | 81 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | -4.8 | 3.45 | 5.9 | 44.1% | 0.92 | 3.25 | 3.72 | Twins | 100 | 97 | 80 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | -2.2 | 4.02 | 5.4 | 44.4% | 0.98 | 4.10 | Cardinals | 98 | 97 | 109 | |
| John Gant | Cardinals | -0.2 | 4.44 | 4.3 | 45.9% | 0.98 | 5.62 | 2.75 | Pirates | 122 | 104 | 104 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | -0.4 | 3.69 | 5.7 | 45.4% | 1.33 | 3.09 | 2.76 | Reds | 94 | 88 | 58 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | -3.3 | 4.84 | 5.5 | 45.7% | 0.88 | 5.06 | 3.86 | Nationals | 103 | 102 | 78 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 6.4 | 4.46 | 5.9 | 38.5% | 1.10 | 4.73 | 6.29 | Red Sox | 122 | 120 | 120 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 7.3 | 4.76 | 5.3 | 41.6% | 1.02 | 4.77 | 5.71 | Mets | 94 | 106 | 98 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 12.9 | 3.87 | 6.1 | 48.0% | 1.01 | 3.87 | 3.13 | Giants | 86 | 102 | 123 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 4.6 | 3.25 | 6.0 | 48.7% | 1.03 | 3.01 | 3.64 | Angels | 119 | 108 | 92 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | -6.4 | 2.85 | 6.6 | 34.3% | 0.88 | 3.13 | 1.69 | Marlins | 87 | 76 | 85 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 1.2 | 4.45 | 5.4 | 41.7% | 1.07 | 4.59 | 4.58 | White Sox | 99 | 101 | 106 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | -0.9 | 3.42 | 5.3 | 40.7% | 1.15 | 3.88 | 2.54 | Royals | 95 | 99 | 68 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | -0.1 | 3.11 | 5.6 | 49.8% | 1.02 | 3.28 | 2.90 | Brewers | 84 | 100 | 102 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 6.9 | 3.96 | 5.7 | 51.5% | 0.96 | 3.93 | 3.60 | Athletics | 89 | 93 | 67 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | -4.3 | 5.00 | 5.7 | 34.4% | 1.07 | 5.89 | 4.76 | Tigers | 101 | 89 | 47 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | -4 | 3.49 | 4.8 | 48.9% | 0.90 | 3.37 | 1.68 | Padres | 73 | 82 | 63 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | -0.8 | 4.16 | 4.7 | 33.3% | 0.92 | 4.94 | 4.51 | Orioles | 78 | 97 | 83 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | -4.8 | 4.91 | 5.2 | 48.7% | 1.33 | 4.54 | 6.00 | Rockies | 75 | 61 | 54 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | -3.2 | 4.70 | 5.4 | 48.6% | 0.97 | 4.91 | 2.79 | Phillies | 111 | 95 | 71 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 1.4 | 4.17 | 5.8 | 43.9% | 0.96 | 4.01 | 4.95 | Diamondbacks | 85 | 104 | 39 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | -4.6 | 5.11 | 5.8 | 38.7% | 0.97 | 4.77 | 5.76 | Blue Jays | 95 | 97 | 69 |
Clayton Richard has pitched into the eighth inning in three straight starts, striking out 20 of 85 batters (though just two in his last start). He has a double digit SwStr% in five straight starts, perhaps due to a few more sliders and an increase in velocity. His 54.4 GB% is second best on the board, leading to one of the lowest rates of Barrels/BBE (4.3%) on the board. He’s gone on similar runs over short periods of time before, so there’s some precedent, but he’s also always fallen back, which will probably happen again. However, right now, he’s pitching well and is in a favorable start in an extremely negative run environment. The Dodgers should be good (10.2 BB% vs LHP), but haven’t been (87 wRC+, 6.6 HR/FB vs LHP).
Fernando Romero is coming off his worst start of his four start career, striking out fewer than five and allowing more than one run for the first time against the Brewers. The young flame thrower with a 50 Future Value grade (Fangraphs) has failed to generate an 11+ SwStr% and/or at least 50 GB% just once in four starts as well. There are certainly some flaws, including a 12.2 BB%, .347 xwOBA and ERA that’s going to regress, but there’s some talent here and the matchup should not be much of a concern. The Mariners have been banged up, suspended, whatever and are regularly starting their “depth” players these days. He gets a park upgrade in Seattle.
James Paxton has struck out just 19 of 83 batters since his 16 strikeout performance four starts back, but that was followed up by a no-hitter and he threw another complete game in his last start. He has thrown at least 96 pitches in every game with a double digit SwStr% in every start since his first. This guy is a star and has a favorable matchup at home against the Twins (24.6 K%, 7.6 HR/FB vs LHP).
John Gant has struck out 12 of 44 batters in two starts and does have league average strikeout and walk rates through 84.2 career innings working as a swing man between starts (11) and the bullpen for the Cards and Braves. It’s just 17.1 innings this year in the majors, but his .288 xwOBA reflects well. He has reached 90 pitches in both of his starts, pitching into the sixth inning in his first one. The Pirates are not an easy matchup, mostly because they put bat to ball, especially at home for some reason (17.5%).
Jon Gray has been very inconsistent this year. He’s allowed 11 runs over his last nine innings, but struck out one 10 in one of those starts (at home), while just four in the most recent (in San Francisco). In the past, he’s been more grounders than strikeouts at home with the opposite on the road. That has not been the trend this year. Oh, he still has a higher rate of grounders at Coors (50% to 42.2%), but his strikeout rate is 29% at home as opposed to 22.9% on the road. Now, he has faced the Padres twice at home, but also once on the road with his last two home starts (18 Ks) against the Brewers and Angels. The Reds are a below average offense, but not so much so that they are not still a difficult matchup at Coors, but it still may not even be one of the five worst park adjusted spots on the board. The Reds have a 29.8 K% over the last week.
Jose Urena has only exceeded six strikeouts once with a high of seven this season. It’s very odd that his SwStr% has tanked, while his K% has actually risen over the last month, but remove two consecutive starts against Atlanta last two times out and he’s only been below a 9 SwStr% one other time this year. Let’s say he may be a league average pitcher, which he nearly is by estimators and xwOBA. The Nationals do have a 10.6 BB% against RHP because Bryce Harper (22 BB% vs RHP), but have really been about a neutral offense and visit an extremely negative run environment tonight.
Luis Severino has a 23.7 K-BB% that’s almost a full point improvement from last year and is eighth best in baseball. While he’s gone exactly six innings in three straight starts, he hasn’t failed to reach that mark since his third start of the season and does not have a start with less than six strikeouts this year. At the very least, that’s a lofty floor. The matchup is tough and the Angels have just a 19.8 K% vs RHP, but it’s probably not the worst spot on the board. To give some perspective, I give this matchup equal footing (from a run prevention standpoint at least) to the Reds at Coors.
Max Scherzer is great and it’s best to use our time more wisely in other spots.
Noah Syndergaard …follow along here, we’re going to spend a few minutes on this. Go to his Baseball Savant player page. Click the Statcast button. Scroll down to Pitch Tracking and click the expander to get all seasons. Take a look around the page. Not much seems different this year. His “Meatballs” are up slightly, but his 3.1% Barrels/BBE is actually the lowest of his career and essentially lowest on this board as well. Some of his pitches are a little bit slower, but he’s still averaging 97+, the same as his rookie season…but that Four Seam fastball this year….402 wOBA, .389 xwOBA!! None of his other pitches are above .301 in either metric. The aEV is the same as in previous years, but he launch angle is a nearly optimal (for the batter) 15. Everything else is the same except for whiff, which is down from 21-22% to 14-15% the last two seasons. Let’s look where he’s throwing it. Basically right down the pipe. Maybe he needs to take a look at what deGrom is doing, what the Mets are attempting to get him to do and elevate that pitch more often. The good news is it’s a small adjustment. The other thing is that there seems to be this feeling that he’s having a poor season, but he still has an ERA with estimators below three with the second highest SwStr% on the board. The matchup is marginal. The Brewers have a 16.9 HR/FB vs RHP, but also a 24.8 K%.
Patrick Corbin has seen his strikeouts and swinging strike rate drop significantly over the last month. After striking out at least eight in each of his first five starts, he’s topped out at that mark just once over his last five. His ERA and estimators have risen nearly a run, but he still remains a high quality pitcher, allowing more than two runs in just one of his last four starts. The A’s are a dangerous offense, but have been much less so at home and against LHP (17.1 K-BB%, 9.3 HR/FB) this year. It sounds strange considering they can run out a predominantly right-handed lineup, but with Khris Davis out, who do you really fear? Chapman? Semien?
Ross Stripling worked his way through 96 pitches and six innings last time out. He’s throwing 62% non-fastballs, even in a starting role, and has struck out 21 of his last 61 batters. Of course, the SwStr% does not support that, as we see below, but he’s facing the Padres (26.4 K% vs RHP) in tonight’s top matchup.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.287 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)
Sean Manaea (.208 – 78.7% – 12.7) pitched on more strong game right after the no-hitter (in Houston in fact), but has completely fallen apart since (four runs in four straight starts). He’s struck out just nine of his last 75 batters. The Diamondbacks are the coldest offense in baseball (39 wRC+, 32.2 K% last seven days) and have a 26.4 K% vs LHP, which seems to be the popular split number tonight, but neither Statcast nor recent ERA estimators are fans.
Ryan Yarbrough (.239 – 68.4% – 7.7) is likely to back up Romo and throw the majority of the innings in this game, but it’s not something that’s been officially announced at this time as far as I can see. The Rays could do something weird (or something else weird in addition to starting Romo). It would be silly to roster a guy who ends up not appearing in or appearing briefly in a game. Might also completely suppress his ownership though. Maybe best to leave this one alone without clarification. It’s kind of borderline at best anyway, though there’s some upside (Orioles 23.4 K% vs LHP).
Zach Eflin (.205 – 75.3% – 4.3) has seen a velocity increase this season and is missing more bats, but had just a 17.7 K% in 20 AAA innings before being called up. I’m not buying it yet, especially for $8K.
Junior Guerra (.261 – 78.7% – 6.7) has a .252 BABIP and 78.5 LOB% in 238.1 career innings. Not near a large enough sample to establish a firm outlier, but the really interesting thing has been the Milwaukee defense (.265 BABIP, 7.3 UZR/150). Of course, that home run rate is completely unsustainable and half his career rate.
Julio Teheran (.241 – 78.4% – 13.6) had suddenly begun looking slightly interesting again, but has just five strikeouts with six walks and three home runs over his last two starts and a trip to Fenway on the docket tonight. It’s in competition for worst park adjusted matchup on the board.
Reynaldo Lopez (.213 – 78.3% – 8.9) struck out eight Rangers in eight shutout innings last time out, but also has no strikeouts twice in his last four starts, preceded by two strikeouts in each of the previous two starts. The good news is that he’s not walked more than two in five straight starts. You just never know what you’re going to get and while the Tigers don’t do much good with the bats, they also don’t swing and miss a lot. He could do something, but that probably shouldn’t be the expectation and he’s not the cheapest guy on the board.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Corey Kluber has failed to pitch into the seventh inning just once in 10 starts this year. He just struck out 10 (against these same Astros) or more for the third time this season. The problem is that he’s allowed 11 HRs (21 all of last year) and has struck out either four or six exactly in six of his other seven starts this season. He faces the same difficult offense in a much more positive run environment this time around. There’s like a 20-25% increase in run environment going from Houston to Cleveland. We know those things don’t always work out like that, but this is one of the worst park adjusted matchups on the board. Maybe he can turn it on and off when he wants. Perhaps he’s conserving for when he thinks he needs it and this may be such a spot. I still have him as a top five or six overall pitcher and if the ownership projection suggests he may be ignored or he gets an extremely favorable umpire assignment, of course he’s worth taking a shot with. However, his SwStr% sits between Richard and Heaney at just above league average and he’s sporting an unsustainable .222 BABIP and 88 LOB%. While his .297 xwOBA is still extremely strong, several pitchers exceed that mark tonight. For reference, I have him on equal footing with guys like Paxton, Severino, and Corbin overall tonight, some of whom he costs less than on DK.
Eduardo Rodriguez has a higher K% and SwStr% with a lower xwOBA than Corey Kluber at a much lower price. The problem is that the Braves have a K% and HR/FB against LHP separated by just three-tenths of a percentage point this year. They get a DH and a significant park upgrade tonight.
Joe Musgrove has some talent and is in a decent spot considering the negative run environment and league average offense at the minimum price. Despite going only five innings, he did face 27 batters in his last tune up at AAA, allowing six runs. He’s struck out 15 of 59 faced in AA and AAA through three starts. He could pay off his price, but I’m just not sure their intentions with him tonight.
Sam Gaviglio struck out 29 of 108 batters at AAA for the Blue Jays this year and has gotten 12 of 41 in the majors so far, but had just a 15.7 K% in the majors last year and has been above 20% just once barely since Rookie ball in 2013. I honestly don’t know what to think here yet. It’s probably too soon to make much of it, but that minor league rate is intriguing and the Phillies strike out a lot (26.4% vs RHP). It’s not an insane shot to take, but he has just a 7.9 SwStr% at the major league level so far.
Dallas Keuchel still has the top ground ball rate on the board, though both that and his strikeout rate rae lower than normal in a similarly terrible spot to his opposition tonight.
Andrew Heaney has one of the worst park adjusted matchups on the board at Yankee Stadium. He has one of the lowest aEVs on the board with the highest line drive rate somehow.
Mike Minor is nearly too cheap on DraftKings, and may even be, but his 12.9% Barrels/BBE is essentially highest on the board if you remove the guy with just a couple of starts and that’s not a good thing in Texas.
David Hess was the seventh graded prospect in the Baltimore system by Fangraphs…in December of 2015 and does not have a mention linked in his player profile page since. The 24 year-old got his first taste of AAA this season and flashed a 24.6 K%, his highest rate in more than 10 innings at any level. However, that came with a 10.2 BB%, also his highest rate. A fly ball pitcher, he’s struck out just seven of 48 major league batters faced this season, allowing four HRs in 10.2 innings, not exceeding 87 pitches in either of his two starts.
Sal Romano might have a top 10 park adjusted matchup even at Coors. He’s just not good.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Yrs | 27.3% | 8.6% | 25.8% | 22.9% | Season | 27.7% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 13.3% | Road | 24.3% | 9.7% | 27.6% | 19.4% | L14Days | 32.1% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 23.4% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Yrs | 17.2% | 7.8% | 17.3% | 16.1% | Season | 20.2% | 8.1% | 16.2% | 20.7% | Road | 16.6% | 7.9% | 26.0% | 17.8% | L14Days | 21.8% | 1.8% | 7.1% | |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 30.2% | 5.3% | 13.4% | 6.8% | Season | 26.0% | 3.7% | 18.6% | 13.6% | Home | 34.9% | 4.6% | 10.8% | 0.6% | L14Days | 25.0% | 9.1% | 12.2% | |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 6.8% | 18.8% | 2.6% | Season | 18.6% | 6.6% | 18.0% | Road | 20.8% | 8.1% | 22.2% | 2.2% | L14Days | 23.4% | 6.4% | 11.1% | -9.1% | |
| David Hess | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 14.6% | 4.2% | 20.0% | 23.1% | Season | 14.6% | 4.2% | 20.0% | 23.1% | Road | 16.7% | 8.3% | 30.0% | 22.2% | L14Days | 14.6% | 4.2% | 20.0% | 23.1% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 20.0% | Season | 21.0% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 24.6% | Road | 16.7% | 10.6% | 17.9% | 22.9% | L14Days | 19.2% | 11.5% | 5.6% | 19.5% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 24.7% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 9.9% | Season | 28.2% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 13.9% | Home | 28.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | L14Days | 28.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 18.2% |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | L2 Yrs | 17.1% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 27.7% | Season | 18.0% | 6.2% | 13.7% | 31.0% | Road | 15.0% | 10.3% | 14.3% | 27.8% | L14Days | 13.2% | 3.8% | 15.4% | 25.6% |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | L2 Yrs | 24.4% | 12.2% | 6.3% | 24.0% | Season | 24.4% | 12.2% | 6.3% | 24.0% | Road | 32.6% | 13.0% | 16.7% | L14Days | 18.6% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 17.3% | |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 26.8% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 15.4% | Season | 31.5% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 13.9% | Home | 30.1% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 9.9% | L14Days | 22.2% | 1.9% | 9.5% | 14.7% |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 6.1% | 15.4% | 12.3% | Season | Home | 22.8% | 8.0% | 17.9% | 6.3% | L14Days | ||||||||
| John Gant | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 20.1% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 14.0% | Season | 25.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 24.5% | Road | 16.4% | 13.1% | 18.8% | 16.6% | L14Days | 30.8% | 7.7% | 14.3% | 20.8% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 25.1% | 7.2% | 12.4% | 11.6% | Season | 26.0% | 5.4% | 13.0% | 20.0% | Home | 24.6% | 6.4% | 15.1% | 7.9% | L14Days | 29.2% | 4.2% | 14.3% | 46.9% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 17.1% | Season | 18.7% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 29.0% | Home | 15.4% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 16.4% | L14Days | 15.2% | 6.5% | 20.0% | 38.8% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 11.2% | Season | 21.0% | 10.7% | 13.6% | 14.0% | Road | 20.1% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 8.9% | L14Days | 10.2% | 12.2% | 18.8% | -2.8% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 16.0% | Season | 23.0% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 24.8% | Home | 24.7% | 13.3% | 18.3% | 12.5% | L14Days | 15.9% | 13.6% | 48.4% | |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 22.1% | 6.1% | 13.2% | 5.7% | Season | 19.5% | 4.9% | 18.8% | 10.1% | Home | 19.9% | 7.2% | 18.3% | 11.7% | L14Days | 25.5% | 4.3% | 12.5% | 21.2% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 29.1% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 9.2% | Season | 30.0% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 9.4% | Home | 29.7% | 6.2% | 15.4% | 8.9% | L14Days | 25.5% | 7.8% | 35.3% | |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 34.3% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 9.0% | Season | 40.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 13.0% | Road | 35.3% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 11.9% | L14Days | 44.4% | 5.6% | 15.4% | 29.6% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 19.9% | 7.6% | 16.6% | 13.9% | Season | 15.3% | 3.8% | 16.1% | 18.5% | Home | 19.9% | 7.5% | 16.1% | 13.2% | L14Days | 15.6% | 4.4% | 21.4% | 11.4% |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 25.9% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 13.1% | Season | 21.9% | 5.2% | 12.9% | 23.8% | Home | 26.0% | 5.4% | 11.5% | 14.1% | L14Days | 33.3% | 4.8% | 18.2% | 24.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Yrs | 27.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | Season | 27.8% | 5.3% | 9.3% | -1.2% | Road | 21.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.8% | L14Days | 28.6% | 6.1% | -16.1% | |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 22.9% | 8.3% | 16.4% | 17.4% | Season | 33.3% | 7.4% | 16.3% | 24.1% | Road | 23.1% | 7.8% | 21.6% | 15.7% | L14Days | 28.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 41.4% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.5% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | Season | 17.2% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 6.2% | Road | 15.3% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 15.8% | L14Days | 17.8% | 8.9% | 6.7% | |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 23.0% | 6.0% | 13.3% | 7.6% | Season | 27.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | Home | 25.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | L14Days | 36.4% | -3.6% | ||
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | Season | 20.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | Home | 19.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 3.1% | L14Days | 18.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.4% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Yrs | 17.6% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 11.3% | Season | 15.1% | 11.1% | 14.5% | 11.6% | Road | 16.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 4.4% | L14Days | 18.2% | 18.2% | 14.3% | 32.1% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 17.2% | 7.9% | 18.8% | 15.3% | Season | 29.3% | 4.9% | 11.6% | Road | 14.0% | 5.4% | 26.3% | 16.5% | L14Days | 29.3% | 4.9% | 11.6% | ||
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 6.7% | 12.1% | 18.1% | Season | 19.8% | 4.3% | 12.7% | 21.5% | Home | 21.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 16.2% | L14Days | 11.8% | 7.8% | 22.2% | 37.5% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 13.4% | 5.7% | 14.7% | 15.4% | Season | 25.0% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 6.7% | Home | 18.7% | 4.5% | 21.6% | 13.7% | L14Days | 19.1% | 14.3% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | Home | 22.1% | 13.1% | 17.4% | 21.7% | LH | 22.5% | 10.9% | 18.1% | 18.2% | L7Days | 18.0% | 6.0% | 25.6% | 32.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.3% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 10.2% | LH | 21.9% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 17.9% | L7Days | 22.9% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 21.3% |
| Astros | Road | 20.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 19.6% | RH | 21.6% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 15.4% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 18.6% |
| Indians | Home | 20.3% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 28.5% | LH | 18.0% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 19.8% | L7Days | 20.8% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
| Rays | Home | 23.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 17.7% | RH | 21.8% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 16.2% | L7Days | 27.2% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 11.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 19.3% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 8.3% | LH | 21.1% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 16.1% | L7Days | 17.7% | 14.2% | 9.4% | 21.5% |
| Braves | Road | 20.6% | 8.6% | 14.2% | 15.9% | LH | 17.1% | 8.3% | 16.8% | 19.6% | L7Days | 21.8% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 26.5% |
| Rangers | Home | 26.0% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 23.2% | LH | 26.8% | 8.5% | 13.3% | 15.7% | L7Days | 23.5% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 13.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.3% | 7.0% | 12.3% | 8.4% | RH | 20.2% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 18.0% | L7Days | 19.4% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 16.1% |
| Twins | Road | 22.9% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 18.3% | LH | 24.6% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 10.3% | L7Days | 25.0% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 28.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 24.8% | 9.6% | 17.5% | 17.5% | RH | 23.2% | 8.7% | 13.9% | 19.3% | L7Days | 21.8% | 5.3% | 14.0% | 16.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.5% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | RH | 19.4% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.9% | L7Days | 15.0% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 14.8% |
| Reds | Road | 19.6% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 15.9% | RH | 21.5% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 16.7% | L7Days | 29.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 16.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.4% | 10.4% | 15.7% | 19.6% | RH | 20.2% | 10.6% | 15.5% | 14.0% | L7Days | 25.0% | 6.1% | 13.0% | 13.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.9% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 17.3% | RH | 18.5% | 8.3% | 14.9% | 20.2% | L7Days | 21.1% | 11.2% | 15.4% | 12.8% |
| Mets | Road | 22.6% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 15.4% | RH | 21.0% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 13.6% | L7Days | 16.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 10.2% |
| Giants | Road | 27.2% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 17.6% | RH | 25.6% | 6.8% | 10.7% | 21.7% | L7Days | 26.6% | 6.5% | 13.6% | 11.5% |
| Angels | Road | 17.2% | 8.0% | 12.2% | 14.5% | RH | 19.8% | 8.4% | 12.9% | 18.9% | L7Days | 19.8% | 13.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.6% | RH | 24.1% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 10.1% | L7Days | 22.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 13.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 23.2% | 7.5% | 15.6% | 20.8% | RH | 23.9% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 12.3% | L7Days | 26.9% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 7.8% |
| Royals | Road | 19.6% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 16.7% | LH | 22.6% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 15.9% | L7Days | 23.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 19.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 27.0% | 9.5% | 15.3% | 21.3% | RH | 24.8% | 8.3% | 16.9% | 16.8% | L7Days | 25.7% | 9.6% | 16.7% | 23.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 26.3% | LH | 23.6% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 23.5% | L7Days | 20.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 28.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.5% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 26.6% | RH | 21.1% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 21.2% | L7Days | 23.2% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 11.2% |
| Padres | Road | 27.0% | 6.2% | 11.7% | 11.2% | RH | 26.4% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 15.5% | L7Days | 23.2% | 4.3% | 11.9% | 9.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 27.4% | 7.5% | 11.8% | 14.0% | LH | 23.4% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 14.6% | L7Days | 25.5% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 9.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 25.6% | 9.2% | 17.2% | 8.5% | RH | 24.6% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 14.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.5% | 11.2% | 14.6% | 12.6% | RH | 26.4% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 27.6% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 26.8% | 9.3% | 15.8% | 12.9% | LH | 26.4% | 8.6% | 17.2% | 22.9% | L7Days | 32.2% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 11.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 23.3% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 19.8% | RH | 24.1% | 10.0% | 14.0% | 18.4% | L7Days | 23.7% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 25.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.8 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 27.7% | 11.1% | 2.50 | 26.8% | 10.6% | 2.53 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 20.2% | 10.2% | 1.98 | 21.7% | 12.0% | 1.81 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 26.0% | 10.7% | 2.43 | 24.6% | 10.6% | 2.32 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 18.6% | 8.7% | 2.14 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 2.05 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 14.6% | 7.9% | 1.85 | 14.6% | 7.9% | 1.85 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 21.0% | 8.0% | 2.63 | 17.9% | 9.4% | 1.90 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 28.2% | 12.1% | 2.33 | 27.1% | 10.6% | 2.56 |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.09 | 20.0% | 9.5% | 2.11 |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.07 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.07 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 31.5% | 14.0% | 2.25 | 33.1% | 14.5% | 2.28 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | ||||||
| John Gant | Cardinals | 25.0% | 10.8% | 2.31 | 25.0% | 10.8% | 2.31 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 26.0% | 12.7% | 2.05 | 32.8% | 15.0% | 2.19 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 18.7% | 8.8% | 2.13 | 19.1% | 6.8% | 2.81 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 21.0% | 11.0% | 1.91 | 18.4% | 9.1% | 2.02 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.53 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 2.40 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 19.5% | 8.9% | 2.19 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 1.99 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 30.0% | 12.6% | 2.38 | 31.3% | 12.1% | 2.59 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 40.9% | 17.2% | 2.38 | 44.2% | 16.0% | 2.76 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 15.3% | 8.7% | 1.76 | 16.8% | 7.6% | 2.21 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 21.9% | 11.0% | 1.99 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 2.04 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 27.8% | 14.6% | 1.90 | 21.8% | 13.6% | 1.60 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 33.3% | 14.4% | 2.31 | 27.3% | 10.6% | 2.58 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 17.2% | 9.2% | 1.87 | 12.3% | 8.7% | 1.41 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 27.8% | 9.1% | 3.05 | 28.7% | 8.0% | 3.59 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 20.7% | 6.4% | 3.23 | 25.8% | 6.7% | 3.85 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 15.1% | 5.4% | 2.80 | 16.5% | 5.7% | 2.89 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 29.3% | 7.9% | 3.71 | 29.3% | 7.9% | 3.71 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 19.8% | 10.3% | 1.92 | 16.4% | 9.6% | 1.71 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 25.0% | 9.8% | 2.55 | 25.0% | 9.8% | 2.55 |
Jon Gray has just one start below a double digit SwStr%. It was below 11% in each of his first four starts though leading up to that one. However, he just recently snapped a streak of four straight starts above 11%. Just one of those were against San Diego, whom he’s faced three times this season.
There’s not too much to see here until we get to the bottom, but then it gets ugly in a hurry, mostly with some guys who are, were or should be relievers, thrust into a starting role.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.22 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.17 xFIP – 4.29 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 3.35 | 3.48 | 0.13 | 3.35 | -0.14 | 3.23 | -0.12 | 5.07 | 1.72 | 1.45 | 3.60 | 2.15 | 3.28 | 1.83 | 2.55 | 1.10 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 4.87 | 3.87 | -1.00 | 4.87 | -1.41 | 3.76 | -1.11 | 4.79 | -0.08 | 4.24 | 3.22 | -1.02 | 2.84 | -1.40 | 2.51 | -1.73 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 2.36 | 3.04 | 0.68 | 2.36 | 0.55 | 3.57 | 1.21 | 2.71 | 0.35 | 2.78 | 2.95 | 0.17 | 2.83 | 0.05 | 4.17 | 1.39 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 3.43 | 3.85 | 0.42 | 3.43 | 0.24 | 4.25 | 0.82 | 3.64 | 0.21 | 3.71 | 3.60 | -0.11 | 3.42 | -0.29 | 4.49 | 0.78 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 6.75 | 4.74 | -2.01 | 6.75 | -1.38 | 7.23 | 0.48 | 5.51 | -1.24 | 6.75 | 4.76 | -1.99 | 5.37 | -1.38 | 7.23 | 0.48 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 4.94 | 4.59 | -0.35 | 4.94 | -0.07 | 4.79 | -0.15 | 5.58 | 0.64 | 4.91 | 5.16 | 0.25 | 5.32 | 0.41 | 5.09 | 0.18 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 4.13 | 3.40 | -0.73 | 4.13 | -0.35 | 3.77 | -0.36 | 3.10 | -1.03 | 4.45 | 3.35 | -1.10 | 3.76 | -0.69 | 3.88 | -0.57 |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | 6.15 | 4.32 | -1.83 | 6.15 | -1.66 | 4.69 | -1.46 | 6.09 | -0.06 | 4.99 | 3.98 | -1.01 | 3.83 | -1.16 | 4.37 | -0.62 |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | 1.66 | 4.21 | 2.55 | 1.66 | 2.54 | 3.61 | 1.95 | 5.73 | 4.07 | 1.66 | 4.22 | 2.56 | 4.2 | 2.54 | 3.61 | 1.95 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 3.30 | 3.13 | -0.17 | 3.30 | 0.08 | 3.04 | -0.26 | 3.25 | -0.05 | 1.70 | 2.74 | 1.04 | 2.93 | 1.23 | 2.37 | 0.67 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | ||||||||||||||||
| John Gant | Cardinals | 4.67 | 3.45 | -1.22 | 4.67 | -1.02 | 2.64 | -2.03 | 2.42 | -2.25 | 4.67 | 3.46 | -1.21 | 3.65 | -1.02 | 2.64 | -2.03 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 5.34 | 3.20 | -2.14 | 5.34 | -2.42 | 3.00 | -2.34 | 2.05 | -3.29 | 3.72 | 2.36 | -1.36 | 1.98 | -1.74 | 1.83 | -1.89 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 4.55 | 3.97 | -0.58 | 4.55 | -0.48 | 3.71 | -0.84 | 3.77 | -0.78 | 3.45 | 3.59 | 0.14 | 3.52 | 0.07 | 3.07 | -0.38 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 4.17 | 4.63 | 0.46 | 4.17 | 0.66 | 5.03 | 0.86 | 4.73 | 0.56 | 4.33 | 4.75 | 0.42 | 4.92 | 0.59 | 4.88 | 0.55 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 2.98 | 4.40 | 1.42 | 2.98 | 1.53 | 3.72 | 0.74 | 5.30 | 2.32 | 4.44 | 4.61 | 0.17 | 4.79 | 0.35 | 4.32 | -0.12 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 3.40 | 3.79 | 0.39 | 3.40 | 0.21 | 4.32 | 0.92 | 3.02 | -0.38 | 2.94 | 3.53 | 0.59 | 3.26 | 0.32 | 3.52 | 0.58 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 2.35 | 2.94 | 0.59 | 2.35 | 0.46 | 1.95 | -0.40 | 2.56 | 0.21 | 2.38 | 2.60 | 0.22 | 2.34 | -0.04 | 1.54 | -0.84 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 1.78 | 2.05 | 0.27 | 1.78 | 0.62 | 1.79 | 0.01 | 1.37 | -0.41 | 2.20 | 1.84 | -0.36 | 1.91 | -0.29 | 1.73 | -0.47 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 4.57 | 4.52 | -0.05 | 4.57 | 0.17 | 5.43 | 0.86 | 4.93 | 0.36 | 5.13 | 4.47 | -0.66 | 4.75 | -0.38 | 6.25 | 1.12 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 5.59 | 3.85 | -1.74 | 5.59 | -1.27 | 4.41 | -1.18 | 7.33 | 1.74 | 6.91 | 3.72 | -3.19 | 3.96 | -2.95 | 4.93 | -1.98 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 2.91 | 3.00 | 0.09 | 2.91 | -0.08 | 2.54 | -0.37 | 2.14 | -0.77 | 2.59 | 3.75 | 1.16 | 3.64 | 1.05 | 2.72 | 0.13 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 2.60 | 2.75 | 0.15 | 2.60 | 0.02 | 2.97 | 0.37 | 2.35 | -0.25 | 3.41 | 3.71 | 0.30 | 3.71 | 0.30 | 4.17 | 0.76 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 2.98 | 5.14 | 2.16 | 2.98 | 2.46 | 4.78 | 1.80 | 7.96 | 4.98 | 4.15 | 5.41 | 1.26 | 5.79 | 1.64 | 5.28 | 1.13 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 2.08 | 3.07 | 0.99 | 2.08 | 1.03 | 2.32 | 0.24 | 2.41 | 0.33 | 2.95 | 2.73 | -0.22 | 2.54 | -0.41 | 2.40 | -0.55 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 3.54 | 4.16 | 0.62 | 3.54 | 1.15 | 3.91 | 0.37 | 5.76 | 2.22 | 3.20 | 2.98 | -0.22 | 3.12 | -0.08 | 3.26 | 0.06 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 5.62 | 5.24 | -0.38 | 5.62 | -0.53 | 5.40 | -0.22 | 7.00 | 1.38 | 6.56 | 5.22 | -1.34 | 5.01 | -1.55 | 5.03 | -1.53 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 0.93 | 2.78 | 1.85 | 0.93 | 2.29 | 1.55 | 0.62 | 5.68 | 4.75 | 0.93 | 2.79 | 1.86 | 3.22 | 2.29 | 1.55 | 0.62 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 2.71 | 3.87 | 1.16 | 2.71 | 1.11 | 3.86 | 1.15 | 4.17 | 1.46 | 4.55 | 4.24 | -0.31 | 4.06 | -0.49 | 4.35 | -0.20 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 1.56 | 4.16 | 2.60 | 1.56 | 2.75 | 2.93 | 1.37 | 5.22 | 3.66 | 1.56 | 4.16 | 2.60 | 4.31 | 2.75 | 2.93 | 1.37 |
Clayton Richard has a .326 BABIP, which it’s hard to say he hasn’t earned with his line drive rate in combination with a matching .309 career and team defensive rate. The 67 LOB% and 16.2 HR/FB have some room for improvement.
Fernando Romero has a .245 BABIP, 86.5 LOB% and 6.3 HR/FB. All three numbers have at least some regression in store.
John Gant has a 45.5 LOB%.
Jon Gray has a .371 BABIP and 63.7 LOB%. His career strand rate is below 70%, but still five points higher. The BABIP…
Ross Stripling has a .344 BABIP, 87.1 LOB% and 6.1 HR/FB, so things are flying in all kinds of directions.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .287 BABIP – 43.1 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.1 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.295 | 0.307 | 0.012 | 39.6% | 28.7% | 6.3% | 83.6% | 35.4% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.309 | 0.326 | 0.017 | 54.4% | 25.0% | 8.1% | 86.6% | 36.9% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.278 | 0.222 | -0.056 | 48.1% | 20.6% | 13.6% | 89.5% | 31.2% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.260 | 0.250 | -0.010 | 57.3% | 16.7% | 12.0% | 89.2% | 34.1% |
| David Hess | Orioles | 0.326 | 0.286 | -0.040 | 41.0% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 95.2% | 39.2% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.295 | 0.246 | -0.049 | 35.6% | 14.8% | 14.9% | 89.4% | 44.0% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 0.295 | 0.303 | 0.008 | 41.9% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 83.6% | 40.2% |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | 0.308 | 0.304 | -0.004 | 42.9% | 20.7% | 5.9% | 91.6% | 34.8% |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | 0.296 | 0.245 | -0.051 | 52.8% | 17.0% | 12.5% | 85.4% | 35.8% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.293 | 0.257 | -0.036 | 32.2% | 20.8% | 11.4% | 81.4% | 39.5% |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.296 | |||||||
| John Gant | Cardinals | 0.285 | 0.271 | -0.014 | 43.8% | 16.7% | 10.5% | 85.1% | 38.2% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.295 | 0.371 | 0.076 | 46.0% | 25.8% | 15.2% | 84.5% | 36.6% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.292 | 0.298 | 0.006 | 52.3% | 17.2% | 13.2% | 86.1% | 37.7% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.291 | 0.241 | -0.050 | 36.7% | 18.4% | 15.2% | 84.2% | 33.3% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.265 | 0.261 | -0.004 | 40.0% | 19.1% | 17.8% | 86.4% | 46.3% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.266 | 0.250 | -0.016 | 49.4% | 21.7% | 4.2% | 88.1% | 29.2% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.282 | 0.285 | 0.003 | 47.8% | 20.1% | 3.9% | 84.4% | 34.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.277 | 0.278 | 0.001 | 34.4% | 14.8% | 13.8% | 73.0% | 34.8% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.286 | 0.265 | -0.021 | 40.3% | 16.7% | 11.3% | 87.0% | 35.4% |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 0.306 | 0.324 | 0.018 | 38.4% | 19.2% | 14.5% | 83.0% | 44.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.297 | 0.340 | 0.043 | 47.5% | 25.3% | 7.0% | 84.6% | 33.4% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.268 | 0.239 | -0.029 | 47.9% | 21.4% | 11.6% | 83.8% | 27.9% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.292 | 0.213 | -0.079 | 32.9% | 18.0% | 13.9% | 84.8% | 48.9% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.293 | 0.344 | 0.051 | 41.9% | 22.6% | 18.2% | 90.9% | 31.3% |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 0.277 | 0.239 | -0.038 | 33.3% | 22.2% | 19.2% | 92.3% | 36.3% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.297 | 0.280 | -0.017 | 46.0% | 20.2% | 16.4% | 93.1% | 36.5% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 0.313 | 0.308 | -0.005 | 42.3% | 19.2% | 10.0% | 89.7% | 33.6% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.287 | 0.208 | -0.079 | 43.3% | 23.0% | 9.5% | 90.1% | 32.8% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 0.292 | 0.205 | -0.087 | 23.3% | 23.3% | 8.7% | 84.4% | 44.9% |
Fernando Romero is 50 points below his defense, but has been doing favorable things with his batted ball profile (grounders and popups with few line drives).
James Paxton has a fine profile, but not a ton of support for his .257 BABIP. His career mark is exactly 40 points higher. Odd that it doesn’t separate his ERA from his estimators hardly at all with everything else (LOB, HR/FB) falling mostly in line with league norms.
Jon Gray has a career .335 BABIP. You might think that’s Coors, but it’s separated by three points home and away for his career. It’s odd because the profile is fine. The defense hasn’t been terrible this year. His contact authority hasn’t been bad. In the past it’s even been elite on occasion. It’s just strange.
Patrick Corbin has a .239 BABIP, but it’s not all that much lower than his defense and he’s the only pitcher on the board to combine top Z-Contact and Z-O-Swing rates. He has an 83.7 LOB% as well, but is not really removed from his ERA by estimators much due to a 16.3 HR/FB and 33.3% strikeout rate.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.322 | -0.025 | 0.423 | 0.012 | 0.318 | -0.060 | -1.300 | 85.6 | 6.7 | 39.000 | 105 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.332 | -0.001 | 0.346 | 0.031 | 0.314 | -0.007 | -2.000 | 89.4 | 4.3 | 37.500 | 184 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.297 | -0.053 | 0.231 | -0.012 | 0.322 | -0.046 | -0.500 | 87.3 | 8.9 | 32.500 | 191 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.299 | -0.007 | 0.304 | -0.006 | 0.303 | -0.025 | -0.400 | 88.3 | 5.7 | 36.800 | 193 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 0.389 | 0.004 | 0.450 | 0.075 | 0.389 | 0.004 | -1.300 | 90 | 15.4 | 51.300 | 39 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.362 | -0.038 | 0.395 | 0.001 | 0.390 | -0.041 | -0.900 | 89.9 | 10.9 | 42.800 | 138 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 0.295 | 0.003 | 0.313 | 0.019 | 0.324 | -0.020 | -0.800 | 89.7 | 6.2 | 34.100 | 129 |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | 0.402 | -0.055 | 0.399 | 0.019 | 0.395 | -0.074 | 0.000 | 92.1 | 8.5 | 49.300 | 142 |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | 0.347 | -0.071 | 0.292 | -0.031 | 0.347 | -0.071 | -1.300 | 88.9 | 9.3 | 37.000 | 54 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.307 | -0.048 | 0.270 | -0.005 | 0.299 | -0.068 | -0.400 | 88.7 | 9.9 | 38.400 | 151 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.322 | 0.018 | |||||||||
| John Gant | Cardinals | 0.288 | -0.034 | 0.306 | 0.035 | 0.288 | -0.034 | -0.400 | 87.4 | 8.2 | 34.700 | 49 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.307 | 0.025 | 0.298 | 0.012 | 0.264 | 0.024 | 0.400 | 88.8 | 5.5 | 37.600 | 165 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.331 | -0.028 | 0.335 | -0.010 | 0.337 | -0.057 | -0.600 | 89.6 | 5.7 | 38.600 | 176 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.322 | -0.007 | 0.297 | 0.001 | 0.309 | -0.045 | -0.400 | 87.8 | 6.7 | 34.700 | 150 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.348 | -0.061 | 0.341 | -0.004 | 0.361 | -0.050 | -0.300 | 89.9 | 8.0 | 42.500 | 113 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.342 | -0.051 | 0.327 | -0.031 | 0.340 | -0.078 | -0.900 | 85.9 | 9.5 | 34.900 | 169 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.298 | -0.058 | 0.298 | -0.042 | 0.306 | -0.056 | -0.500 | 88.3 | 8.1 | 36.900 | 160 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.252 | -0.014 | 0.258 | -0.018 | 0.250 | 0.011 | -0.800 | 88.1 | 8.4 | 39.700 | 131 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.347 | -0.011 | 0.348 | -0.013 | 0.349 | -0.002 | -0.800 | 88.4 | 9.6 | 36.300 | 146 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 0.360 | 0.000 | 0.282 | 0.019 | 0.367 | 0.027 | -1.100 | 89.1 | 12.9 | 39.500 | 147 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.275 | 0.016 | 0.304 | -0.039 | 0.287 | 0.018 | -0.100 | 86.5 | 3.1 | 30.600 | 160 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.274 | -0.030 | 0.331 | 0.019 | 0.308 | -0.023 | -0.500 | 89.1 | 7.1 | 36.200 | 141 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.357 | -0.067 | 0.343 | 0.029 | 0.356 | -0.043 | -0.500 | 88.1 | 8.0 | 32.100 | 162 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.262 | 0.015 | 0.253 | 0.015 | 0.242 | 0.022 | -0.700 | 84.7 | 3.2 | 24.200 | 95 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 0.308 | -0.034 | 0.288 | -0.021 | 0.262 | -0.001 | -0.900 | 86.3 | 5.1 | 24.800 | 117 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.359 | -0.014 | 0.325 | 0.027 | 0.358 | -0.002 | -1.100 | 88.8 | 7.3 | 34.100 | 164 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 0.281 | -0.041 | 0.360 | 0.016 | 0.281 | -0.041 | 0.300 | 89.1 | 0.0 | 42.300 | 26 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.341 | -0.094 | 0.327 | -0.040 | 0.358 | -0.095 | 0.200 | 89.2 | 8.4 | 40.300 | 191 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 0.287 | -0.065 | 0.373 | -0.005 | 0.287 | -0.065 | 0.100 | 87.6 | 4.4 | 35.600 | 45 |
Ross Stripling has been the top contact manager on the board, though a lot of that’s come out of the bullpen and we don’t believe in the strikeout rate.
h3=. Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
This was a tough one, more because of the matchups and pricing than the actual arms available. I mean the difference between guys like Paxton, Corbin, Kluber and Severino is mostly about cost. I’d actually consider Kluber ahead of most of the other guys on DraftKings, though still don’t think any of them are great bargains there (except maybe Corbin?) at current cost. Sometimes the pricing discrepancies make me want to scrap this entire opinionated section.
Value Tier One
Max Scherzer (1) has the lowest xwOBA and highest strikeout rate on the board…in the league? He’s facing…okay, let’s finally give that a look…the Marlins??!! ALL the way to the top with him. Seriously, nobody comes close from an overall potential standpoint tonight.
Value Tier Two
Noah Syndergaard (2) costs less than $11K in somewhat of a neutral, but high upside matchup tonight. He’s had some problems with the fastball, but the Brewers are just average in that metric too (3.2 wFB). While he’s only struck out more twice, he’s struck out exactly seven in each of his last two starts and has not allowed more than three runs since his first start. He also has a path to even more success if he decides to elevate that fastball more often.
Ross Stripling shouldn’t be taken at face value. A lot of what he’s doing may not be sustainable, but it might be against the Padres and he should be good for 100 pitches if needed tonight, though, it’s the Dodgers, so who knows.
John Gant is just someone to pair with a top arm tonight. He’s not in a great or high upside spot, but he costs nothing and has league average peripherals for his career. It wouldn’t be a shock if he tripled his price tag or perhaps even better.
Jose Urena is another potential SP2 arm who can triple his cost on DraftKings. His SwStr% has tanked, but only really against one difficult to whiff team. The Nationals are fine, but perhaps still a favorable matchup considering the park. He’s gone seven innings in three starts this season and has not allowed more than four runs since his first start. He may be a near league average pitcher and if so, he’s much too cheap.
Patrick Corbin (3t) has taken a bit of a step backwards over the last month, but has remained a quality pitcher and has a price below $10K in a favorable and potentially high upside matchup.
Value Tier Three
James Paxton (3t) is the second most expensive pitcher on DraftKings and perhaps he deserves that in a favorable matchup. He’s struck out 16 and completed games twice this year (though not in the same start). He certainly has the upside, but his price discrepancy is the second highest on the board ($2.2K) and highest going from FanDuel to DraftKings.
Jon Gray has gotten smacked around in his last two starts and there’s some precedent for his high BABIP, though still not nearly this high. With all of these studs on the mound, he may go ignored at Coors, but the matchup is not even among the worst on the board and he has the second highest SwStr% on the board over the last month. That point is emphasized by the fact that Max Scherzer is also on this board.
Clayton Richard has nowhere near the upside most, if not all, of the guys above him here, but we have a guy with a league average strikeout rate (higher over the last month), who also generates ground balls at a very high rate and goes deep into games in a spot that seems decent by the numbers if not reputation. Remove the names (his and the Dodgers) and you’re probably paying the low price for this profile more confidently (I know, his placement here surprised me too).
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Luis Severino (3t) is not in a great spot, nor at any sort of discount, but he is earning the right to be called an elite pitcher. For context, I have him on par with Kluber, who is not on this list at a similar cost. He’s $700 cheaper than Kluber on FanDuel though. I just want to illustrate how thin the line is today. If his ownership looks to be much higher than Kluber’s or the umpire situation is much better for one than the other, that could make the difference for me.
Fernando Romero is not as good as his ERA, but has talent. The cost is too low, especially on FanDuel, for that talent level in this spot. Bump him up there. I have him graded pretty similarly to E-Rod, considering matchups and parks, which means at the same price on DraftKings, if I’m not playing one, I’m probably not playing the other, though they are probably both borderline.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.