Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, July 4th
With just a four game holiday night slate, we’re going to attempt to cover the entire day, omitting the pre-noon contest in Washington. It would be difficult to talk about all and have this and have it completed at a time where it’s still useful, so notes will mostly be covering pitchers deemed worth considering.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 3.8 | 3.78 | 6.34 | 2.93 | 1.02 | 3.89 | 3.75 | KAN | 83 | 92 | 83 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | -5.3 | 4.71 | 5.13 | 1.75 | 1.07 | 4.61 | 4.43 | SDG | 85 | 78 | 118 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -7.7 | 3.6 | 6.02 | 2.09 | 0.97 | 3.56 | 4.52 | PIT | 95 | 102 | 86 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | -2.4 | 4.26 | 5.81 | 1.38 | 0.99 | 4.13 | 5.41 | CHW | 93 | 101 | 107 |
| Cody Reed | CIN | -2.7 | 3.43 | 5.33 | 1.31 | 1.03 | 3.31 | 3.47 | CHC | 104 | 117 | 116 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | -8.2 | 4.4 | 4.57 | 0.85 | 1.03 | 4.68 | 3.03 | CLE | 123 | 89 | 84 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 9.6 | 3.46 | 6.09 | 1.14 | 1.03 | 3.36 | 4.41 | DET | 98 | 105 | 131 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 6.2 | 4.34 | 6.08 | 1.54 | 1.02 | 4.4 | 5.84 | TOR | 108 | 104 | 125 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 8.5 | 4.29 | 5.82 | 0.86 | 0.89 | 4.71 | 5.32 | COL | 83 | 96 | 59 |
| James Shields | CHW | 1.9 | 3.91 | 6.16 | 1.28 | 0.99 | 3.94 | 5.28 | NYY | 76 | 88 | 100 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | -4.2 | 3.89 | 6.13 | 1.16 | 1.02 | 3.4 | 4.15 | ATL | 71 | 75 | 84 |
| Joel De La Cruz | ATL | 4.1 | 6.35 | 6. | 0.78 | 1.02 | 6.35 | PHI | 62 | 82 | 127 | |
| Jon Niese | PIT | 0.5 | 4.19 | 5.93 | 2.03 | 0.97 | 4.3 | 4.55 | STL | 104 | 90 | 94 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 0.6 | 3.75 | 4.71 | 1.13 | 0.9 | 2.24 | 4.73 | BAL | 107 | 95 | 106 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -12.4 | 4.45 | 5.42 | 1.81 | 1.03 | 4.43 | 4.85 | MIN | 95 | 87 | 121 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 7.6 | 3.62 | 5.85 | 1.74 | 1.03 | 2.87 | 3.42 | CIN | 79 | 79 | 71 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 4.4 | 3.72 | 5.71 | 1.71 | 1.01 | 3.25 | 4.32 | SEA | 105 | 115 | 145 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -5.3 | 4.19 | 4.62 | 2.63 | 1.07 | 3.64 | 3.75 | ARI | 92 | 92 | 98 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | -5 | 3.6 | 6.18 | 1.22 | 0.87 | 3.23 | 5.07 | FLA | 105 | 97 | 116 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | -3 | 4.32 | 5.68 | 0.96 | 0.97 | 4.2 | 4.29 | ANA | 102 | 106 | 150 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 2.3 | 4.37 | 5.39 | 0.83 | 0.97 | 5.19 | TAM | 88 | 88 | 94 | |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 11.1 | 4.97 | 5.65 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 5.19 | 7.01 | BOS | 118 | 119 | 122 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.9 | 3.75 | 6.24 | 1.46 | 1.07 | 3.7 | 4.4 | TEX | 89 | 89 | 85 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | -5.8 | 4.04 | 5.56 | 1.16 | 1.03 | 4.51 | 5.83 | OAK | 99 | 86 | 107 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 3.3 | 4.63 | 5.79 | 1.24 | 0.87 | 4.97 | 5.09 | NYM | 102 | 96 | 130 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 1.6 | 2.99 | 5.8 | 3.42 | 0.89 | 2.87 | 3.12 | SFO | 111 | 104 | 127 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | -4 | 4.25 | 5.94 | 1.62 | 1.01 | 4.6 | 5.75 | HOU | 96 | 90 | 99 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | -5.2 | 4.47 | 5.6 | 1.58 | 0.9 | 4.25 | 4.88 | LOS | 93 | 93 | 111 |
Aaron Sanchez has the third highest ground ball rate (58.6%) and is just outside the top 10 in weak contact (22.2%). The quality of the contact is never in question (although it’s been slightly harder lately). What we are concerned about is occasional lapses in control and a lagging SwStr%. He’s not in a bad spot against a low powered Kansas City offense (9.4 HR/FB vs RHP) that doesn’t take a lot of walks (6.0% vs RHP).
Carlos Martinez is not missing bats nearly as well as last season (11 Ks total over last three starts), but he is fourth in baseball with a 57.9 GB%. While he hasn’t been striking out anyone over his last three starts, he has a 61.9 GB% with just a 12.5 Hard%. His biggest issue with all the contact might be a St. Louis defense that seems lacking, though a home start against a marginal Pittsburgh offense isn’t a bad spot.
Danny Salazar has seen a decent sized drop off in his SwStr% over the last month with little change in his K%. Also, three times in his last five games he’s walked four or more, while walking a total of one in the other two games against the Braves and White Sox. He hasn’t necessarily been bad, but hasn’t lasted six innings in four of his last nine starts. Detroit is a tough offense, but has a 15.2 K-BB% vs RHP.
James Shields allowed seven runs in four straight starts before allowing just three (while still walking one more than he struck out) against the Red Sox of all teams and finally having a strong outing against the Twins (6.2 IP – 1 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 5 K – 27 BF) in his last start. With a 7.4 K-BB% and 18.1 Hard-Soft% this season, this is not an endorsement of his current skill set at all, though it would seem unlikely that he’s completely toast yet. He’s in a great spot against a poor Yankees offense with a 27.5 Hard% vs RHP that they’ve been able to turn into a 13.5 HR/FB only due to a short RF porch at Yankee Stadium that won’t play a part tonight.
Jerad Eickhoff has excelled at home in his short career with a 19.7 K-BB% and lots of weak contact (3.5 Hard-Soft%). Instead of expounding on that too much, let’s just mention he’s facing the Braves, the worst offense in baseball on the road (5.9 HR/FB) and vs RHP (7.1 HR/FB).
Julio Urias walked six of 25 Brewers in his last start, but also struck out at least six for the fifth straight start and had walked exactly one in each of his previous five starts, so I’m not yet concerned with a 10.5 BB%, but maybe we shouldn’t be entirely buying into a strikeout rate much above 25% either. He hit 100 pitches and six innings for the first time in the start he walked six. Go figure. I’m not sure whether that means his leash has been extended though, or if he’ll be reined in a bit more tonight. The Orioles are a strong road team (15.8 HR/FB), but with a lot of strikeouts (24.6%) and have not handled LHP all that well (14.1 K-BB%).
Kyle Hendricks is missing bats at an above average rate, but one of the strongest ground ball rates in baseball has been just 38.5% over his last five starts, though he’s still generating weak contact 24.1% of the time over that span, similar to his season rate. He’s in one of the top spots tonight against a Cincinnati offense with a 15.3 K-BB% vs RHP and just a 7.2 HR/FB over the last week (24.2 Hard%).
Lance McCullers is missing lots of bats, but also has at least three walks (13.9%) in each of his eight starts. Contact, which only occurs 60% of the time, has been great with a 57.0 GB%, which would be seventh if he qualified, and just a 5.7 Hard-Soft%. He faces a very powerful (16.0 HR/FB vs RHP) and hot (20.8 HR/FB last seven days) set of bats tonight in one of tonight’s toughest matchups, though he’s allowed just one HR this year.
Luis Perdomo had a very respectable 14.3 K-BB% in 27 June innings, although his ERA was 7.00. This is because he had a 35.3 HR/FB and .361 BABIP despite a normal contact profile with an elite 61.8 GB%. Three road outings occurred in Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Colorado though. He has another one in Arizona tonight. Only the baseball Gods know what he’s done to deserve this, but the Diamondbacks have a 16.7 K-BB% vs RHP and the park has to push really hard to make this even a neutral matchup with a 17.1 HR/FB at home.
Matt Harvey looked better than he had all season, despite three walks, averaging his highest velocity of the season (96 mph), through 16 batters before rain ended his night early in his last start. While June was his best month via ERA, his underlying numbers were still as mediocre as they’ve been all season with no HRs allowed in five starts being the biggest difference. He has a 19.0 K-BB% at home since last season in a great park where he’s pitched just six times this season and has a neutral park adjusted matchup against the Marlins, who aren’t a bad offense, but have had below average surprisingly below average power both on the road and vs RHP this year (9.9 HR/FB in both instances).
Tyler Anderson has a 19.0 K-BB% and 60.3 GB% through four major league starts. He has not allowed more than two ERs in any start, three of them at home. He didn’t miss bats at AAA this season (18.8 K% in just 17 innings), but has previously shown an ability to do so at AA in 2014 before his 2015 season was wiped out by injury. San Francisco is a difficult offense with just a 6.9 K-BB% at home and 18.7 K% vs RHP, but in a great pitchers park that kind of neutralizes the matchup (6.7 HR/FB, 4.2 Hard-Soft% at home).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 12.7 HR/FB)
C.C. Sabathia (.288 BABIP – 75.5 LOB% – 5.1 HR/FB) is not as concerning from a strikeout standpoint with a 10.3 SwStr% over the last month, but is starting to see that HR adjustment with one in each of his last two starts. Contact management has been great so far though (17.7 IFFB%, 24.8 Soft%).
Nick Martinez (.267 BAIBP – 81.2 LOB% – 14.3 HR/FB) has a -5.8 K-BB% through 18 innings.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Rick Porcello is has a SwStr below 7% over the last month with a strikeout rate propped up by the Rays in his last start (eight). I don’t understand how Texas has been so good as neither their pitching nor offense has been good.
Cody Reed allowed six HRs in three starts and The Cubs have a 16.0 HR/FB vs LHP. He’s also struck out 20 of 74 batters and didn’t have HR issues in the minors. The Cubs have a league average strikeout rate vs LHP.
Matt Moore
Nicholas Tropeano
Joel de la Cruz
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.6% | 9.3% | Home | 17.2% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 12.3% | 5.3% |
| Archie Bradley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.7% | 12.2% | Home | 21.1% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 9.6% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 22.7% | 8.2% | Home | 21.7% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 7.1% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 18.8% | 7.6% | Road | 19.0% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 5.7% |
| Cody Reed | Reds | L2 Years | 27.0% | 6.8% | Road | 32.1% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 4.4% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.8% | 7.9% | Road | 17.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 2.2% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 26.4% | 8.0% | Home | 27.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 10.0% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 18.2% | 8.8% | Road | 18.8% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | L2 Years | 18.1% | 6.1% | Home | 13.9% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 6.9% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 22.1% | 8.3% | Home | 24.3% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.9% | 6.1% | Home | 24.7% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 8.3% |
| Joel De La Cruz | Braves | L2 Years | 4.0% | 4.0% | Road | L14 Days | 4.0% | 4.0% | ||
| Jon Niese | Pirates | L2 Years | 15.7% | 6.8% | Road | 15.2% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.7% | 10.5% | Home | 36.8% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 15.2% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.5% | 7.4% | Road | 15.7% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 7.6% | 1.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 20.8% | 5.8% | Home | 25.3% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 7.9% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 25.4% | 9.9% | Home | 27.3% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 11.5% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 17.9% | 9.7% | Road | 22.6% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 9.4% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 22.9% | 5.5% | Home | 24.3% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 7.3% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 19.8% | 7.4% | Home | 22.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 5.6% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | Angels | L2 Years | 21.2% | 9.5% | Road | 20.7% | 11.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.9% | 8.6% | Road | 12.3% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 16.3% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.4% | 4.8% | Home | 21.9% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | L2 Years | 18.8% | 5.3% | Home | 15.7% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 8.8% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 18.0% | 10.0% | Road | 15.6% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 19.7% | 12.7% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 24.0% | 5.0% | Road | 19.1% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 6.7% |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 18.1% | 8.2% | Road | 16.0% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 15.8% | 8.1% | Road | 15.4% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 11.1% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | Road | 21.5% | 5.6% | RH | 19.9% | 6.0% | L7Days | 21.1% | 5.7% |
| Padres | Road | 24.5% | 7.0% | RH | 24.0% | 6.8% | L7Days | 24.6% | 10.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 23.2% | 7.8% | RH | 20.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.0% | 8.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.0% | 8.9% | LH | 23.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 24.7% | 7.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.6% | 12.1% | LH | 20.4% | 10.8% | L7Days | 24.8% | 8.9% |
| Indians | Home | 18.8% | 9.8% | LH | 21.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 21.7% | 4.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.8% | 7.5% | RH | 22.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 22.9% | 10.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 21.8% | 10.2% | RH | 22.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 21.3% | 12.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.7% | 6.8% | RH | 20.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 29.5% | 5.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.9% | 6.6% | RH | 18.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.9% | 9.2% |
| Braves | Road | 20.5% | 7.1% | RH | 19.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.9% | 6.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.8% | 6.7% | RH | 21.2% | 6.6% | L7Days | 19.7% | 5.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.0% | 9.0% | LH | 21.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.5% | 11.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.6% | 7.0% | LH | 22.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.4% |
| Twins | Home | 19.7% | 7.9% | RH | 22.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.3% | 9.4% |
| Reds | Road | 22.0% | 7.2% | RH | 22.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.8% | 7.5% | RH | 19.1% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.5% | 8.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 24.2% | 7.3% | RH | 23.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 5.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.0% | 7.4% | RH | 18.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 18.9% | 7.2% |
| Angels | Road | 15.5% | 7.1% | LH | 16.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 11.6% | 8.0% |
| Rays | Home | 26.0% | 7.5% | RH | 25.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 27.1% | 5.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.2% | 9.7% | RH | 18.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.3% | 9.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.6% | 6.1% | RH | 19.3% | 7.2% | L7Days | 22.4% | 6.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 18.5% | 7.1% | RH | 18.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 16.4% | 8.4% |
| Mets | Home | 23.2% | 9.2% | RH | 22.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.6% | 6.7% |
| Giants | Home | 16.9% | 10.0% | LH | 18.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.2% | 10.6% |
| Astros | Home | 25.1% | 10.6% | LH | 24.4% | 10.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.6% | 8.7% | RH | 20.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.4% | 11.0% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 23.5% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 2016 | 27.8% | 14.8% | 5.6% | Home | 26.7% | 22.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 12.5% | -6.4% |
| Archie Bradley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 36.0% | 14.5% | 19.1% | 2016 | 34.0% | 17.8% | 14.3% | Home | 38.7% | 18.2% | 21.0% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 27.3% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 2016 | 27.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | Home | 26.1% | 11.3% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 0.0% | -8.9% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.9% | 12.9% | 8.9% | 2016 | 25.2% | 5.1% | 0.4% | Road | 27.6% | 12.9% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 34.1% | 14.3% | 9.1% |
| Cody Reed | Reds | L2 Years | 46.9% | 37.5% | 32.6% | 2016 | 46.9% | 37.5% | 32.6% | Road | 43.8% | 33.3% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 48.5% | 40.0% | 36.4% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 27.9% | 12.4% | 7.1% | 2016 | 23.5% | 17.6% | 8.8% | Road | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.5% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 20.0% | 3.3% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 31.2% | 9.9% | 15.5% | 2016 | 34.8% | 7.4% | 19.6% | Home | 30.2% | 10.1% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 0.0% | 41.2% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 28.4% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 2016 | 25.7% | 10.4% | 5.3% | Road | 26.9% | 10.7% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 7.7% | 26.4% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | L2 Years | 29.9% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 2016 | 36.5% | 8.5% | 21.4% | Home | 30.1% | 5.3% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 6.5% | 18.5% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.8% | 14.1% | 14.4% | 2016 | 34.4% | 16.0% | 18.1% | Home | 32.6% | 19.0% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 6.7% | 16.2% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.3% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 2016 | 30.3% | 12.2% | 8.2% | Home | 27.5% | 10.1% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 11.1% | 24.2% |
| Joel De La Cruz | Braves | L2 Years | 30.4% | 11.1% | 17.4% | 2016 | 30.4% | 11.1% | 17.4% | Road | L14 Days | 30.4% | 11.1% | 17.4% | |||
| Jon Niese | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.4% | 16.6% | 13.6% | 2016 | 31.2% | 24.1% | 14.8% | Road | 28.9% | 19.1% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 33.3% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2016 | 33.3% | 12.5% | 10.3% | Home | 42.4% | 0.0% | 21.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 7.4% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.3% | 14.5% | 12.5% | 2016 | 31.2% | 15.6% | 13.0% | Road | 28.0% | 17.6% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 0.0% | 4.3% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 2016 | 24.1% | 10.8% | -3.5% | Home | 25.6% | 12.2% | 1.7% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 15.8% | 4.3% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 28.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 2016 | 26.8% | 4.0% | 5.7% | Home | 27.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 0.0% | -17.6% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 32.6% | 25.0% | 15.2% | 2016 | 32.6% | 25.0% | 15.2% | Road | 34.6% | 33.3% | 20.2% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 37.5% | 14.3% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 28.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 2016 | 30.4% | 8.3% | 6.0% | Home | 28.7% | 10.9% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 33.1% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 2016 | 34.0% | 13.7% | 15.2% | Home | 32.2% | 13.6% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 4.8% | 12.8% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | Angels | L2 Years | 29.5% | 6.8% | 14.3% | 2016 | 35.4% | 11.0% | 19.2% | Road | 27.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 28.4% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 2016 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 9.5% | Road | 28.8% | 15.3% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 21.4% | 16.7% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.6% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 2016 | 29.7% | 12.6% | 14.2% | Home | 32.5% | 11.1% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 0.0% | 11.8% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | L2 Years | 32.8% | 10.8% | 16.8% | 2016 | 34.1% | 11.8% | 17.9% | Home | 30.5% | 7.7% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 43.5% | 22.2% | 30.5% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.3% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 2016 | 24.8% | 7.1% | 3.0% | Road | 30.2% | 10.7% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 12.5% | 15.2% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.4% | 8.3% | 15.7% | 2016 | 31.4% | 8.3% | 15.7% | Road | 25.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 14.3% | 13.7% |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 27.5% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 2016 | 33.0% | 15.2% | 15.6% | Road | 26.2% | 9.8% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 14.3% | 11.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 26.5% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 2016 | 29.5% | 8.9% | 13.4% | Road | 24.1% | 9.3% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 16.7% | 9.7% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | Road | 27.2% | 10.1% | 8.1% | RH | 29.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.7% | 8.3% | -3.0% |
| Padres | Road | 32.5% | 14.1% | 15.0% | RH | 31.0% | 11.9% | 12.7% | L7Days | 40.2% | 21.1% | 16.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.5% | 11.8% | 10.0% | RH | 29.2% | 10.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 27.0% | 5.6% | 8.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.6% | 13.1% | 7.6% | LH | 30.4% | 12.5% | 9.9% | L7Days | 32.9% | 10.0% | 15.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 28.7% | 13.1% | 8.8% | LH | 30.6% | 16.0% | 11.1% | L7Days | 34.9% | 22.5% | 17.2% |
| Indians | Home | 31.3% | 13.7% | 16.0% | LH | 30.1% | 8.6% | 12.6% | L7Days | 28.8% | 10.7% | 8.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 31.6% | 13.1% | 11.5% | RH | 31.6% | 13.9% | 13.6% | L7Days | 32.9% | 15.9% | 10.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 35.1% | 14.1% | 17.6% | RH | 33.3% | 15.0% | 15.1% | L7Days | 33.9% | 20.3% | 14.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.6% | 14.7% | 10.8% | RH | 32.6% | 15.0% | 14.8% | L7Days | 31.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% |
| Yankees | Road | 28.6% | 10.8% | 11.2% | RH | 27.5% | 13.6% | 10.4% | L7Days | 38.1% | 16.7% | 22.9% |
| Braves | Road | 26.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | RH | 26.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 33.9% | 10.7% | 20.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.8% | 9.4% | 0.1% | RH | 27.8% | 12.0% | 5.9% | L7Days | 29.4% | 14.0% | 6.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.9% | 12.8% | 16.8% | LH | 31.9% | 10.7% | 15.2% | L7Days | 39.6% | 10.1% | 25.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 33.0% | 15.8% | 14.7% | LH | 34.1% | 13.6% | 13.4% | L7Days | 42.1% | 12.3% | 24.1% |
| Twins | Home | 31.9% | 11.0% | 14.5% | RH | 30.4% | 11.5% | 11.7% | L7Days | 30.6% | 15.0% | 14.3% |
| Reds | Road | 29.4% | 10.0% | 11.3% | RH | 30.7% | 12.3% | 12.5% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.1% | 15.6% | 13.0% | RH | 32.2% | 16.0% | 15.4% | L7Days | 36.2% | 20.8% | 24.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 35.6% | 17.1% | 19.8% | RH | 33.6% | 14.2% | 15.8% | L7Days | 36.0% | 18.2% | 20.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 31.0% | 9.9% | 10.3% | RH | 30.0% | 9.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 30.7% | 7.6% | 12.5% |
| Angels | Road | 29.9% | 9.9% | 7.9% | LH | 25.9% | 13.0% | 3.7% | L7Days | 35.5% | 9.0% | 17.7% |
| Rays | Home | 33.5% | 12.3% | 14.8% | RH | 32.9% | 14.1% | 13.1% | L7Days | 28.2% | 10.0% | 13.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 34.1% | 10.7% | 15.5% | RH | 34.2% | 13.0% | 15.3% | L7Days | 30.2% | 6.3% | 16.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.0% | 15.1% | 11.7% | RH | 28.8% | 12.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 32.3% | 20.4% | 12.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 31.2% | 12.2% | 11.8% | RH | 29.7% | 9.2% | 10.6% | L7Days | 27.7% | 10.8% | 10.7% |
| Mets | Home | 35.7% | 14.4% | 14.2% | RH | 34.9% | 14.1% | 17.6% | L7Days | 38.5% | 17.8% | 22.9% |
| Giants | Home | 26.1% | 6.7% | 4.2% | LH | 27.9% | 9.9% | 5.9% | L7Days | 31.8% | 11.7% | 11.4% |
| Astros | Home | 34.2% | 15.4% | 17.3% | LH | 33.6% | 14.8% | 16.3% | L7Days | 29.1% | 11.5% | 15.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 31.8% | 15.0% | 14.1% | RH | 33.4% | 13.2% | 16.4% | L7Days | 27.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 22.0% | 8.1% | 2.72 | 23.2% | 7.4% | 3.14 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 23.6% | 8.9% | 2.65 | 25.9% | 9.7% | 2.67 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 18.9% | 8.2% | 2.30 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 2.24 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 18.7% | 9.7% | 1.93 | 16.0% | 10.3% | 1.55 |
| Cody Reed | CIN | 27.0% | 11.6% | 2.33 | 27.0% | 11.6% | 2.33 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 26.5% | 6.9% | 3.84 | 28.9% | 6.7% | 4.31 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 28.5% | 11.7% | 2.44 | 27.3% | 10.2% | 2.68 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 17.7% | 8.8% | 2.01 | 15.8% | 8.4% | 1.88 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 17.4% | 10.6% | 1.64 | 17.4% | 10.3% | 1.69 |
| James Shields | CHW | 17.8% | 9.4% | 1.89 | 11.8% | 6.0% | 1.97 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.7% | 9.6% | 2.16 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 2.34 |
| Joel De La Cruz | ATL | 4.0% | 1.2% | 3.33 | 4.0% | 1.2% | 3.33 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | 15.8% | 6.9% | 2.29 | 14.0% | 6.7% | 2.09 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 28.7% | 10.2% | 2.81 | 33.0% | 11.1% | 2.97 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 15.4% | 8.8% | 1.75 | 11.7% | 7.8% | 1.50 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 22.4% | 9.0% | 2.49 | 25.8% | 9.6% | 2.69 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 26.9% | 12.5% | 2.15 | 24.6% | 12.8% | 1.92 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 17.9% | 10.5% | 1.70 | 21.4% | 12.1% | 1.77 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.87 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.01 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 22.0% | 10.8% | 2.04 | 22.7% | 12.5% | 1.82 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 22.1% | 12.8% | 1.73 | |||
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 8.1% | 7.7% | 1.05 | 8.6% | 7.9% | 1.09 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 21.5% | 7.4% | 2.91 | 21.3% | 6.9% | 3.09 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 19.1% | 9.7% | 1.97 | 15.7% | 10.0% | 1.57 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.10 | 23.9% | 10.5% | 2.28 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 24.0% | 11.1% | 2.16 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 2.16 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 17.2% | 8.9% | 1.93 | 14.9% | 8.1% | 1.84 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 15.2% | 6.4% | 2.38 | 20.6% | 7.9% | 2.61 |
Aaron Sanchez ran off six straight starts with a SwStr between eight and 10.2% before finishing at 5% or below in two of his last three. That doesn’t add up to as many strikeouts as he’s been getting until his last two starts though.
Julio Urias has had a double digit SwStr% in four of his last five starts after being below 9% in each of his first two starts. Only once being above 12% though, I’d expect to see him somewhere around a 25 K% going forward.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 3.08 | 3.61 | 0.53 | 3.3 | 0.22 | 3.45 | 0.37 | 3.27 | 3.4 | 0.13 | 3.2 | -0.07 | 4.01 | 0.74 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 4.5 | 4.3 | -0.2 | 4.01 | -0.49 | 4.57 | 0.07 | 3.67 | 4.16 | 0.49 | 3.89 | 0.22 | 4.71 | 1.04 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 2.83 | 4.11 | 1.28 | 3.99 | 1.16 | 3.58 | 0.75 | 1.31 | 3.93 | 2.62 | 3.8 | 2.49 | 3.16 | 1.85 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 3.17 | 4.66 | 1.49 | 4.7 | 1.53 | 3.66 | 0.49 | 3.68 | 5.12 | 1.44 | 5.12 | 1.44 | 4.36 | 0.68 |
| Cody Reed | CIN | 9 | 3.43 | -5.57 | 3.27 | -5.73 | 6.48 | -2.52 | 9 | 3.43 | -5.57 | 3.27 | -5.73 | 6.48 | -2.52 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 4.09 | 3.44 | -0.65 | 3.92 | -0.17 | 4.89 | 0.8 | 4.5 | 3.03 | -1.47 | 3.37 | -1.13 | 4.76 | 0.26 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 2.22 | 3.86 | 1.64 | 3.73 | 1.51 | 3.12 | 0.9 | 1.91 | 4.05 | 2.14 | 3.87 | 1.96 | 3.59 | 1.68 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 4.8 | 4.49 | -0.31 | 4.43 | -0.37 | 4.13 | -0.67 | 7.03 | 4.87 | -2.16 | 4.95 | -2.08 | 4.85 | -2.18 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 5.33 | 4.74 | -0.59 | 5.02 | -0.31 | 4.23 | -1.1 | 3.29 | 4.94 | 1.65 | 5.31 | 2.02 | 3.64 | 0.35 |
| James Shields | CHW | 5.85 | 4.93 | -0.92 | 4.79 | -1.06 | 5.23 | -0.62 | 11.07 | 6.18 | -4.89 | 6.66 | -4.41 | 7.79 | -3.28 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 3.38 | 4.04 | 0.66 | 4.01 | 0.63 | 3.93 | 0.55 | 2.12 | 4.13 | 2.01 | 4.27 | 2.15 | 3.84 | 1.72 |
| Joel De La Cruz | ATL | 4.5 | 6.35 | 1.85 | 5.83 | 1.33 | 5.5 | 1 | 4.5 | 6.35 | 1.85 | 5.83 | 1.33 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | 5.07 | 4.52 | -0.55 | 4.35 | -0.72 | 5.6 | 0.53 | 6.67 | 4.65 | -2.02 | 4.35 | -2.32 | 6.27 | -0.4 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 4.09 | 3.75 | -0.34 | 3.66 | -0.43 | 3.62 | -0.47 | 2.49 | 3.2 | 0.71 | 3.11 | 0.62 | 2.18 | -0.31 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 4.84 | 4.63 | -0.21 | 4.59 | -0.25 | 4.94 | 0.1 | 4.33 | 4.56 | 0.23 | 4.68 | 0.35 | 3.98 | -0.35 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 2.76 | 3.78 | 1.02 | 3.68 | 0.92 | 3.47 | 0.71 | 2.57 | 3.98 | 1.41 | 4.18 | 1.61 | 4.59 | 2.02 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 3.91 | 4.14 | 0.23 | 3.53 | -0.38 | 2.9 | -1.01 | 3.2 | 3.96 | 0.76 | 3.48 | 0.28 | 2.49 | -0.71 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 8.49 | 4.19 | -4.3 | 4.25 | -4.24 | 5.45 | -3.04 | 7 | 3.39 | -3.61 | 3.32 | -3.68 | 5.16 | -1.84 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 4.55 | 4.38 | -0.17 | 4.22 | -0.33 | 3.59 | -0.96 | 2.83 | 4.34 | 1.51 | 4.28 | 1.45 | 2.36 | -0.47 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 4.67 | 4.09 | -0.58 | 4.32 | -0.35 | 4.45 | -0.22 | 3.21 | 3.98 | 0.77 | 4.31 | 1.1 | 3.73 | 0.52 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 3.25 | 4.71 | 1.46 | 4.98 | 1.73 | 4.66 | 1.41 | |||||||
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 5 | 6.48 | 1.48 | 7 | 2 | 7.22 | 2.22 | 4.58 | 6.21 | 1.63 | 6.56 | 1.98 | 6.79 | 2.21 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 3.78 | 3.84 | 0.06 | 4 | 0.22 | 3.97 | 0.19 | 3.26 | 3.92 | 0.66 | 4.03 | 0.77 | 3.13 | -0.13 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 5.31 | 4.13 | -1.18 | 4.2 | -1.11 | 4.03 | -1.28 | 5.35 | 4.53 | -0.82 | 4.56 | -0.79 | 4.38 | -0.97 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.45 | 5.04 | 0.59 | 4.89 | 0.44 | 4.17 | -0.28 | 4.36 | 4 | -0.36 | 4.03 | -0.33 | 3.65 | -0.71 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 2.66 | 2.98 | 0.32 | 2.61 | -0.05 | 2.32 | -0.34 | 2.66 | 2.99 | 0.33 | 2.61 | -0.05 | 2.32 | -0.34 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 5.58 | 4.6 | -0.98 | 4.61 | -0.97 | 4.96 | -0.62 | 4.5 | 4.87 | 0.37 | 4.91 | 0.41 | 4.66 | 0.16 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 5.77 | 5.41 | -0.36 | 5.41 | -0.36 | 4.74 | -1.03 | 4.41 | 5.12 | 0.71 | 5.04 | 0.63 | 5.49 | 1.08 |
Carlos Martinez has a BABIP 64 points lower than last season which accounts for his ability to maintain last year’s ERA with a significant drop in K%. His ground ball rate is up a bit, but was still pretty strong last year. His line drive rate is low, but can’t be counted on to continue in that manner and he only has two popups this year. His 79% strand rate, which was 89.9% in June, is also a bit high with so many fewer strikeouts.
Danny Salazar has a BABIP just over 40 points below his career average. He has a strong defense behind him, though it still sounds strange to say that about Cleveland, and a strong profile below, but the low line drive rate does not mesh with a 34.8 Hard%. If he’s not allowing line drives and only has a 7.4 HR/FB, where is all the hard contact going? Where will it continue to go?
James Shields has had a BABIP between .292 and .299 each of the last four seasons. It’s nearly 50 points higher this season and although contact has been a little harder, it’s not by too much and the rest of his batted ball profiles is completely in line. He’s down some velocity, but not even a mile per hour. There should be some bounce back here.
Jerad Eickhoff is missing bats at a very acceptable league average rate, but that’s probably not enough to sustain a 79.1 LOB%.
Kyle Hendricks has just a .253 BABIP, but a decent profile below and a great defense. We could add lots of weak ground balls to that, but his current ground ball rate (51.6%) is just inside the top 20 now.
Luis Perdomo has pitched in some terrible parks over the last month and another one tonight, but the contact authority has been about average (30.3%) with 61.8% ground balls, which doesn’t translate into six HRs in 27 innings or a .361 BABIP. This is a pitcher who deserves better than a 63.8 LOB% last month as well.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 0.284 | 0.293 | 0.009 | 0.214 | 6.6% | 85.8% |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 0.308 | 0.281 | -0.027 | 0.226 | 4.4% | 84.8% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.290 | 0.254 | -0.036 | 0.165 | 2.9% | 88.2% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.303 | 0.288 | -0.015 | 0.188 | 17.7% | 87.1% |
| Cody Reed | CIN | 0.290 | 0.419 | 0.129 | 0.229 | 0.0% | 87.3% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.309 | 0.355 | 0.046 | 0.206 | 5.9% | 91.4% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.277 | 0.252 | -0.025 | 0.162 | 11.1% | 82.4% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.288 | 0.307 | 0.019 | 0.162 | 6.3% | 88.4% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.289 | 0.322 | 0.033 | 0.179 | 11.1% | 86.6% |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.302 | 0.341 | 0.039 | 0.217 | 6.4% | 87.8% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.308 | 0.299 | -0.009 | 0.22 | 16.3% | 89.0% |
| Joel De La Cruz | ATL | 0.290 | 0.273 | -0.017 | 0.273 | 11.1% | 96.7% |
| Jon Niese | PIT | 0.299 | 0.305 | 0.006 | 0.189 | 5.1% | 90.3% |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 0.274 | 0.349 | 0.075 | 0.218 | 12.5% | 84.1% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.312 | 0.326 | 0.014 | 0.195 | 9.1% | 88.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.258 | 0.253 | -0.005 | 0.185 | 12.2% | 89.7% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.310 | 0.385 | 0.075 | 0.223 | 16.0% | 87.8% |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.303 | 0.403 | 0.1 | 0.233 | 2.5% | 87.9% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.305 | 0.335 | 0.03 | 0.25 | 10.4% | 85.8% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 0.305 | 0.305 | 0 | 0.202 | 9.4% | 83.4% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 0.304 | 0.327 | 0.023 | 0.191 | 11.0% | 83.6% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.284 | 0.267 | -0.017 | 0.127 | 9.5% | 84.9% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.299 | 0.283 | -0.016 | 0.183 | 8.7% | 88.6% |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 0.324 | 0.333 | 0.009 | 0.188 | 6.7% | 89.9% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.303 | 0.316 | 0.013 | 0.231 | 13.1% | 87.8% |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.320 | 0.357 | 0.037 | 0.221 | 0.0% | 84.6% |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 0.294 | 0.307 | 0.013 | 0.201 | 6.5% | 87.8% |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 0.307 | 0.315 | 0.008 | 0.234 | 2.2% | 90.7% |
Julio Urias has a high BABIP despite some solid indicators. It seems like a small sample thing that’s affected his ERA a little bit and should improve greatly going forward.
Lance McCullers has induced lots of weak ground balls and has an otherwise strong fine BABIP profile. There’s absolutely no reason this should continue. However, his 4.0 HR/FB is quite unsustainable as well and as one drops, the other may increase countering any potential ERA movement.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
There is really a lack of top overall arms tonight, but not much of a shortage in depth.
Value Tier One
Julio Urias (1t) probably pitched worse than his final fantasy line with six walks not really affecting his overall line too badly, but that seems like an aberration. He’s not in a great spot tonight, but not in a terrible one against an offense that hasn’t been great against LHP. A price tag of $7.6K or less is still well below upside and he hasn’t even allowed more than two runs in five starts. If they let him push 100 pitches again, he has the potential to blow well past his price.
Value Tier Two
Kyle Hendricks (1t) induces tons of weak contact, even if more of it has been in the air over the last month. The biggest concern with him is that he only reaches even six innings in about half his starts. One thing potentially working in his favor is that Cubs pitching has been pounded over the last few days, wearing out the bullpen, forcing a position player to pitch last night. He’s in a great spot at a high price, but Maddon may not have a lot of other arms available.
Jerad Eickhoff (3) excels at home, has a great matchup (the Braves) and doesn’t even cost that much ($8.4K on either site).
Value Tier Three
Tyler Anderson has been incredibly impressive through four starts. He’s in a spot that might challenge his high strikeout rate tonight, which may push his $8.2K price tag on DraftKings, but is $2K less in a great park with 60% of his contact on the ground so far.
Luis Perdomo is in another rough park, but not necessarily a terrible spot as he really only needs to navigate a couple of bats in this Arizona lineup. He’s shown some potential upside in a guy who has misses some bats and kept the ball on the ground the majority of the time. At the near minimum on DraftKings, he’s a great secondary option that would afford you a lot of offense since there are no really elite pitchers to pay up for today.
Matt Harvey has been pretty ordinary or maybe even worse over the last month aside from the HR suppression (none), but he’s in a spot tonight where that could continue at home and was throwing harder than he had all season in his last start. If that continues today, $7K on DraftKings could turn out to be a great bargain, though it’s not a given considering his ups and downs this season.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Lance McCullers is in a rough spot, where the walks could come back to bite him, but he still has tremendous upside and costs less than $9K.
Danny Salazar (4) has more flaws in his game this year than his ERA would have you believe. High walk and hard hit rates could eventually come back to bite him and he’s facing a potent offense at a high price. This matchup has a wide range of potential outcomes, probably wider than most people expect. Some of those possible outcomes do combine his strong upside with Detroit’s 15.2 K-BB% vs RHP.
Carlos Martinez has his drawbacks and may not have the same upside he showed last season, but is still generating a ton of contact on the ground and is not pitching poorly. He has a decent matchup in a favorable environment for just less than $9K. I have him and Sanchez about even overall tonight with only a slightly different price tag on DraftKings separating them.
Aaron Sanchez – I’m a bit torn here, but believe the upside is limited at a high cost. He’s struck out more than seven just once his last 15 starts. He probably won’t punish owners in a decent spot, as he’s only failed to go at least six innings twice and allowed more than two runs only five times.
James Shields should probably not be touched at $7.1K on FanDuel, but his cost may have dropped too low on DraftKings ($4.6K). He’s not this bad and probably has some bounce back left in him (as shown in his last start) in a nice spot.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window