Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, May 28th
A couple of things before we get to a full day of baseball, kicking off early on Monday. Today’s article will be a bit shorter than expected for a full slate as a service to readers because who has the time to pour through several thousand words when everything kicks off at 1pm ET? Due to the same circumstances, much of this is being written on Sunday afternoon and since I can’t see into the future, I may end up quoting stats that are slightly different on Monday. The numbers will be corrected and updated in the the morning, but that’s the explanation if I type something different than what appears in the tables. This shouldn’t be a factor for the pitchers themselves, who last pitched several days ago, only for opposing teams.
Pricing and slate information is only available for FanDuel at the time of this writing, so that’s what I’m basing off. DraftKings costs will be worked in at the bottom when it’s available. I’m going to go ahead and consider it one big slate for our purposes today. That means listing the first game of the NY/ATL double-header (the second game may or may not even end up being available). Right now that means not listing Brandon McCarthy. Should circumstances change where he is available on your chosen slate, consider his results over the last two starts in which he’s significantly decreased his fastball usage in favor of cutters and curves more than half the time.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | -3.2 | 4.64 | 5.7 | 51.8% | 1.10 | 5.41 | 5.89 | Red Sox | 122 | 119 | 96 |
| Adam Plutko | Indians | 10.2 | 5.01 | 6.6 | 28.0% | 1.06 | 4.77 | 6.07 | White Sox | 101 | 103 | 114 |
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | -7.7 | 4.51 | 5.7 | 48.9% | 0.99 | 3.79 | 5.02 | Nationals | 106 | 104 | 136 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | -6.8 | 3.68 | 5.2 | 42.4% | 1.33 | 3.86 | 4.76 | Rockies | 83 | 92 | 81 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 7.3 | 4.32 | 5.0 | 41.4% | 1.02 | 4.18 | 3.36 | Cardinals | 96 | 95 | 82 |
| Brock Stewart | Dodgers | -4 | 4.87 | 4.1 | 41.7% | 0.90 | 4.92 | 5.60 | Phillies | 82 | 95 | 81 |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | -3.3 | 3.98 | 4.7 | 30.0% | 0.91 | 4.22 | 4.23 | Padres | 94 | 94 | 65 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | -0.4 | 4.59 | 5.6 | 49.9% | 1.33 | 4.18 | 4.47 | Giants | 86 | 100 | 83 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | -2.2 | 4.58 | 5.1 | 41.5% | 0.98 | 4.50 | 3.63 | Cubs | 104 | 109 | 109 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | -0.8 | 3.49 | 6.1 | 44.4% | 0.96 | 3.81 | 4.73 | Athletics | 88 | 106 | 38 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 4.8 | 3.91 | 6.3 | 42.9% | 1.10 | 4.03 | 2.83 | Blue Jays | 93 | 91 | 79 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 4.6 | 3.87 | 4.7 | 44.4% | 1.03 | 3.45 | 3.54 | Astros | 121 | 107 | 135 |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | -0.9 | 4.68 | 5.5 | 47.1% | 0.92 | 4.52 | 4.66 | Mariners | 97 | 101 | 79 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | -4.3 | 5.35 | 5.1 | 50.0% | 1.06 | 6.01 | 2.32 | Indians | 120 | 96 | 108 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | -5.5 | 4.78 | 4.5 | 33.3% | 0.91 | 4.95 | 4.66 | Marlins | 71 | 86 | 72 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | -6.4 | 4.20 | 5.9 | 47.2% | 0.99 | 4.25 | 5.10 | Orioles | 99 | 91 | 64 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | -4.8 | 5.00 | 4.9 | 42.8% | 1.00 | 4.84 | 6.15 | Diamondbacks | 75 | 64 | 38 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | -0.1 | 3.31 | 6.3 | 45.3% | 0.99 | 3.27 | 2.07 | Braves | 101 | 100 | 83 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 1.4 | 4.24 | 5.9 | 40.1% | 1.04 | 4.24 | 3.45 | Twins | 90 | 86 | 42 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 9.5 | 3.55 | 6.5 | 32.7% | 1.03 | 3.85 | 3.11 | Yankees | 121 | 120 | 126 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | -4 | 4.83 | 5.5 | 45.6% | 1.04 | 4.67 | 3.93 | Royals | 86 | 85 | 78 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | -0.2 | 3.64 | 5.2 | 42.5% | 1.02 | 3.24 | 3.09 | Brewers | 93 | 103 | 119 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | -4.8 | 3.97 | 4.8 | 45.7% | 0.92 | 3.85 | 3.92 | Rangers | 78 | 96 | 125 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 1.2 | 4.67 | 5.3 | 36.9% | 1.07 | 5.05 | 4.63 | Angels | 118 | 95 | 104 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 6.9 | 4.90 | 5.8 | 42.8% | 1.00 | 5.20 | 5.69 | Reds | 96 | 87 | 103 |
| Max Fried | Braves | 6.4 | 4.18 | 4.5 | 60.2% | 0.99 | 3.99 | Mets | 97 | 67 | 102 | |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 12.9 | 4.19 | 5.0 | 58.2% | 0.98 | 4.11 | 4.18 | Pirates | 116 | 124 | 90 |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 1.4 | 3.96 | 5.4 | 57.0% | 0.96 | 3.14 | 4.48 | Rays | 108 | 108 | 113 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 6.3 | 4.14 | 5.3 | 44.0% | 1.07 | 4.09 | 3.41 | Tigers | 100 | 105 | 74 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | -4.6 | 4.01 | 5.1 | 37.5% | 0.90 | 4.65 | 3.54 | Dodgers | 94 | 102 | 93 |
Brent Suter has an ERA and estimators below four over the last month. He strikes out enough batters to be useful at the right price and his 84.2 mph aEV is lowest on the board. An odd correlation with a 30.4 LD%. It might be interesting to look into his launch angles when there’s more time. The Cardinals have an 11.6 BB% vs LHP and a 16+ HR/FB on the road and vs LHP, but have not been able to turn that into positive overall results. At the time of this writing, they have a 23.4 K-BB% over the last seven days.
Caleb Smith is not going to continue striking out 30% of batters. He succeeded in a great spot against a Mets’ lineup bereft of right-handed talent currently (6.2 IP – 3 H – 1 ER – 0 HR – 2 BB – 8 K) and is in a spot to do so again today in San Diego (18.3 K-BB% vs LHP), even if they are a bit more dangerous against southpaws (16.5 HR/FB).
Chris Archer had the following line when hosting the Red Sox last time out: 6 IP – 4 H – 1 ER – 0 HR – 3 BB – 6 K – 22 BF. That’s a victory. He’s walked 10 of his last 79 batters, but has completed six innings in five straight, allowing more than a two runs just once (Baltimore), also only allowing a HR in one of those starts (three in Baltimore). That said, his hard hit rate was below 45% for the first time in May last time out (30.8%). So he’s still walking a lot of batters and generating hard contact with just a league average strikeout rate over the last month, but going deep into games. He’s also faced the Red Sox at home, while pitching in LA (AL), Baltimore and Toronto in his last four starts, difficult matchups. The A’s can mash too, but have been suffering recently with Khris Davis out and will swing and miss a bit (23.1 K% vs RHP) in a pitcher’s park.
Gio Gonzalez gets a tough park and an added DH against a predominantly right-handed lineup. However, the Orioles don’t hit LHP all that well (91 wRC+, 15.8 K-BB%). Despite the ERA (2.38), he’s having his typical season. The estimators are more than a run higher except the FIP. He’s shown a tendency to be able to limit damage on contact in the past, specifically home runs.
Jacob deGrom is one of two studs on this slate, neither in an ideal spot, though his in Atlanta is better than Verlander’s in the Bronx. Seven shutout innings with four hits, two walks and eight strikeouts against the Marlins was a bit of a disappointment last time out with the announce team suggesting he didn’t have his best stuff. Those are the kind of expectations he has this season because he’s shown that kind of upside, especially over the last month. Take away the start he left injured and the one where he returned for an inning and he’s gone at least seven innings with eight strikeouts or more in five straight starts. He’s struck out 16 of 40 Braves faced this year. deGrom combines the top SwStr% on the board with a lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (2.2%). His .236 xwOBA is behind only Verlander by four points.
Justin Verlander has been better than deGrom slightly by K% (not SwStr%) and xwOBA (aEV). His estimators are a bit higher and he also has one of the toughest matchups on the board at Yankee Stadium. However, he’s dominated them both in the post-season and back on May 1st (8 IP – 3 H – 0 R – 0 BB – 14 K). He’s completed seven innings or more in five of his last nine starts.
Luke Weaver has suddenly pitched seven innings in each of his last two starts after barely averaging over five innings over the last two years and not going more than five innings in five straight starts. He’s allowed a total of four runs over three starts after allowing four or more in four straight. He’s missing bats at a perfectly league average rate and while his 8.8 HR/FB may not be sustainable (14.3 career HR/FB), he does have one of the lowest aEVs on the board (85.1 mph). The Brewers have been hot (31 Hard-Soft% last seven days) and have power (16.7 HR/FB vs RHP), but also a 24.7 K% vs RHP.
Marco Gonzales has gone at least six innings in five of his last six starts, missing by just one out in the other. He’s not missing a lot of bats and hasn’t even exceeded a 9.0 SwStr% in five straight starts, but he also rarely walks anyone and has a matchup in his favor today. The Rangers have been as hot as the weather in Texas over the last week (22 HR/FB), but travel to Seattle and have a 26.4 K% vs LHP.
Max Fried pitched into the seventh inning in his last AAA start eight day ago. He has generally struggled with control in the minors and doesn’t have a lot of innings above A ball (149.5 at AA, AAA, and the majors since last season), but has run above average strikeout rates at just about every stop that he’s pitched more than a game. The thing this afternoon is that the Mets are completely absent quality right-handed bats against LHP (unless you count Jose Bautista, but neither he nor Wilmer Flores have been very good against LHP since last season). They have a 67 wRC+, split high 27 K%, and 6.1 HR/FB vs LHP.
Mike Montgomery has not started a game this season, but did throw a season high 59 pitches six days ago in allowing six runs against Cleveland. His strikeout rate is miniscule this season out the pen, but a bit more acceptable over the last month and with a SwStr% that projects a bit better. He has just an 18.6 K% over 346 career innings, but we’re not asking for much today. His Statcast numbers are some of the best on the board (84.4 mph aEV, 3.6% Barrels/BBE, 26.2% 95+ mph EV) and a great defense behind him. What’s not on his side is the matchup, though the Pirates can’t be this good (116 wRC+, 17.8 K% at home, 124 wRC+, 9.2 K-BB%, 14.6 HR/FB vs LHP). On the bright side, the park suppresses right-handed power.
Trevor Cahill has struck out just four of his last 47 batters, but one of those starts was in Boston and he went seven innings with a 10.8 SwStr% in the other. His 14.0 SwStr% is second best on the board for the entire day and it’s been just a point lower over the last month. He does have a 90.2 mph aEV that is a bit of a concern, but combines the swings and misses with an elite 60.4 GB% that helps mitigate the damage. The Rays are a tough opponent, but don’t have their standard season lineup in tact right now due to recent trades and injuries. He throws non-fastballs about 60% of the time, which could give this fastball competent team some fits.
Vince Velasquez has been inconsistent as always and nine HRs over his last seven starts is a concern, but the overall body of work is acceptable with an ERA and FIP just above four and other estimators below that. Although he hasn’t done it in every start, he can pile up strikeouts on occasion. His .287 xwOBA is actually third best on the board and he gets a park upgrade in LA (NL), which turns it into a somewhat favorable matchup against an offense that has struggled all season, but has just a 16.7 K% over the last week.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.287 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)
Matt Boyd (.248 – 73% – 4.3) has been in our site last few times out, but threw up a stinker in Minnesota (4 IP – 1 H – 2 ER – 4 BB – 0 K) before leaving with an oblique injury, which it’s taken him less than week to recover from? The Angels are oddly below average against LHP, but I’m perfectly happy sitting this one out in what’s probably a tougher matchup than the numbers suggest against a pitcher who may have injury concerns.
Chad Bettis (.253 – 79% – 10.5) has one of the most difficult matchups on the board. The Giants are predominantly right-handed in the middle of the order and face a pitcher with reverse platoon splits in the most positive run environment possible.
Matt Koch (.222 – 83.4% – 18.4) has the worst Statcast numbers on the board (.418 xwOBA, 15.6% Barrels/BBE), which his HR rate only begins to reflect.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
David Price is coming off two consecutive strong starts in Tampa Bay and hosting Baltimore, striking out 17 of 54 batters. While strikeouts are up over the last month, his SwStr rate remains below average. It hasn’t budged, although he did have a string of three straight starts with a double digit SwStr% snapped last time out, ironically, when he generated his highest strikeout total of the season (nine). He’s really the borderline play on FanDuel for $8K. I’d expect his DraftKings cost to be a bit higher. Toronto has some right handed power that can smack the ball off the wall at Fenway and his numbers really don’t suggest he’s much better than a league average pitcher at this point.
Tyler Skaggs is going to look like an odd omission today in Detroit, but there are some red flags. His 30.2 K% over the last month is not supported by a swinging strike rate that hasn’t budged from about league average. He’s allowed five HRs over his last three starts and has a 4.48 FIP over the last month even with that lofty strikeout rate. Lastly, the Tigers are not terrible, not even close actually, against LHP (105 wRC+, 17.7 K%). There may not be as many strikeouts here as people expect.
Eric Lauer completed six innings for just the second time this season last time out (6 IP – 6 H – 1 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 7 K – 25 BF in Washington). The numbers are all still below average, but the miniscule price tag nearly puts him into consideration against the Marlins, who, despite what happened with Scherzer on Friday night, are still one of the worst run producing offenses in the majors. They have been slightly competent against LHP however.
Jakob Junis does have a slider that can make hitters look silly on occasion and should, theoretically have some success in a big park like Kansas City, but still has a career 14.7 HR/FB at home. His 11.0% Barrels/BBE this season is second worst on the board and the Twins have some pop against RHP. This shows more in the individual bats than their 10.4 HR/FB this year.
Chad Kuhl has league average estimators and an above average strikeout rate, but a below average SwStr% and a .381 xwOBA with significant platoon issues that an offense like the Cubs can take advantage of.
Brock Stewart struck out one of 18 Rockies in his first start, at home. He threw 63 pitches, which maybe gets him to 75 tonight. The performance will have to significantly improve and he has had high minor league strikeout rates. The Phillies offer the same type of strikeout upside, but are a bit better overall than the Rockies.
Domingo German has struck out 16 of 62 batters in three starts. He can miss some bats, but has allowed six runs on each of his last two starts (three HRs), has walked 15 of 125 batters this season and has yet to throw more than 85 pitches. An oft-injured pitcher in recent seasons, pitch count limitations have been his thing throughout the minors as well. Some upside, but too much risk in a terrible matchup against the Astros.
Alex Cobb had velocity trending up and had been working deeper into games, then laid a giant turd in his last start against the White Sox.
Homer Bailey has what might be the top park adjusted matchup in a park that may be even more pitcher friendly than we know with the humidor. That still only gets him this far on the today’s list, which means there are probably no circumstances under which we’d ever consider him short of a negative salary in San Diego perhaps.
Adam Plutko allowed six extra-base hits in his first start and walked four in his second. Yet, he’s allowed just three runs in 13.1 innings. There’s little to support expecting too much from him in the minor league numbers either.
Dylan Covey is coming off the best start of his career against the Orioles (7 IP – 1 ER – 1 BB – 8 K). He’s struck out more than five only one other time in his career and now has a 3.8 K-BB% in 83 major league innings. Let’s see him duplicate this feat in Cleveland.
Andrew Suarez is in Colorado, which can occasionally make the Rockies look like a competent offense.
Aaron Sanchez is in Boston.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 18.2% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.9% | Season | 16.8% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 11.9% | Road | 12.9% | 12.4% | 4.7% | 12.4% | L14Days | 22.7% | 20.5% | 11.1% | 8.0% |
| Adam Plutko | Indians | L2 Yrs | 18.8% | 8.7% | 13.3% | 14.0% | Season | 19.6% | 7.8% | 13.6% | 27.0% | Home | 21.4% | 20.0% | 36.4% | L14Days | 17.4% | 17.4% | 13.4% | ||
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 16.0% | 5.8% | 14.8% | 20.5% | Season | 11.6% | 4.8% | 18.2% | 19.1% | Home | 19.0% | 4.6% | 13.6% | 20.9% | L14Days | 12.5% | 6.3% | 14.3% | 17.9% |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | L2 Yrs | 22.7% | 5.3% | 18.8% | 29.5% | Season | 22.7% | 5.3% | 18.8% | 29.5% | Road | 21.0% | 8.1% | 15.4% | 31.8% | L14Days | 14.9% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 21.6% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 5.9% | 12.5% | 9.8% | Season | 18.2% | 5.2% | 15.5% | 16.0% | Home | 20.3% | 6.7% | 15.4% | 12.7% | L14Days | 26.1% | 6.5% | 20.0% | 19.3% |
| Brock Stewart | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 18.9% | 11.0% | 14.6% | 8.2% | Season | 13.6% | 9.1% | 18.2% | 27.3% | Home | 14.3% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 11.1% | L14Days | 5.6% | 5.6% | 25.0% | 37.5% |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 28.5% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 20.8% | Season | 31.7% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 24.4% | Road | 28.6% | 12.9% | 7.9% | 10.4% | L14Days | 30.8% | 15.4% | 28.5% | |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 7.6% | 13.7% | 13.1% | Season | 16.1% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 16.1% | Home | 15.4% | 5.6% | 16.7% | 9.1% | L14Days | 20.0% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 19.3% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 17.8% | Season | 22.5% | 8.1% | 16.7% | 21.0% | Home | 21.6% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 17.2% | L14Days | 25.0% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 13.4% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Yrs | 27.6% | 7.1% | 14.2% | 21.3% | Season | 22.8% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 24.3% | Road | 25.2% | 8.1% | 17.4% | 24.4% | L14Days | 22.9% | 14.6% | 17.3% | |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 22.8% | 6.5% | 12.0% | 13.6% | Season | 23.3% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.5% | Home | 24.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 15.6% | L14Days | 31.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| Domingo German | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 27.8% | 12.8% | 18.2% | 15.4% | Season | 27.2% | 12.0% | 20.0% | 21.3% | Home | 28.8% | 13.5% | 17.6% | 15.6% | L14Days | 30.0% | 15.0% | 200.0% | 20.0% |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 17.4% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 14.8% | Season | 15.9% | 7.3% | 20.5% | 23.1% | Road | 19.1% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 2.3% | L14Days | 11.5% | 1.9% | 18.8% | 28.8% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 14.3% | 10.4% | 22.2% | 18.6% | Season | 19.6% | 7.1% | 19.5% | Road | 8.6% | 10.5% | 23.7% | 20.8% | L14Days | 27.6% | 3.5% | 15.0% | ||
| Eric Lauer | Padres | L2 Yrs | 18.9% | 9.9% | 16.7% | 33.0% | Season | 18.9% | 9.9% | 16.7% | 33.0% | Home | 12.2% | 4.9% | 33.3% | 38.2% | L14Days | 20.8% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 24.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 10.4% | Season | 24.6% | 10.7% | 6.1% | 11.4% | Road | 22.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.9% | L14Days | 19.6% | 13.7% | 16.7% | 2.9% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 16.1% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 19.0% | Season | 12.9% | 8.5% | 16.7% | 26.9% | Road | 16.5% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 17.4% | L14Days | 10.9% | 14.6% | 11.1% | 36.6% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Yrs | 28.8% | 6.7% | 13.8% | 8.9% | Season | 33.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | -1.5% | Road | 27.1% | 6.6% | 16.8% | 8.9% | L14Days | 37.5% | 3.6% | 12.9% | |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 5.6% | 13.2% | 19.2% | Season | 21.8% | 5.2% | 14.7% | 18.3% | Home | 21.3% | 6.0% | 16.7% | 20.8% | L14Days | 22.2% | 4.4% | 27.2% | |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | L2 Yrs | 28.1% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 11.8% | Season | 33.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.8% | Road | 27.9% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 14.6% | L14Days | 29.1% | 3.6% | -10.8% | |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | L2 Yrs | 20.2% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 10.2% | Season | 21.8% | 14.6% | 18.8% | 19.3% | Road | 20.5% | 11.4% | 17.5% | 14.9% | L14Days | 21.4% | 11.9% | 18.5% | |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 25.8% | 7.3% | 14.3% | 8.1% | Season | 21.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 5.1% | Road | 26.6% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 2.8% | L14Days | 26.4% | 3.8% | 25.0% | 10.8% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 5.4% | 15.3% | 12.1% | Season | 21.7% | 4.9% | 12.5% | 17.7% | Home | 19.5% | 3.1% | 14.6% | 3.2% | L14Days | 16.0% | 6.0% | -2.6% | |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 12.8% | Season | 19.6% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 9.5% | Home | 18.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 14.9% | L14Days | 23.1% | 12.8% | 28.0% | |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 14.2% | 6.9% | 13.9% | 24.8% | Season | 14.3% | 6.9% | 18.4% | 34.1% | Home | 10.6% | 5.7% | 25.0% | 35.0% | L14Days | 11.4% | 9.1% | 28.6% | 37.1% |
| Max Fried | Braves | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 10.2% | 28.6% | 14.1% | Season | 26.9% | 11.5% | 42.9% | 43.7% | Home | 15.9% | 6.8% | 33.3% | 18.1% | L14Days | ||||
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 19.2% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 7.1% | Season | 13.6% | 9.1% | 10.0% | -9.5% | Road | 20.0% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 6.8% | L14Days | 20.7% | 10.3% | 5.0% | |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 23.6% | 10.6% | 22.4% | 15.4% | Season | 25.2% | 6.5% | 19.0% | 37.6% | Home | 26.9% | 7.9% | 14.7% | 12.3% | L14Days | 8.5% | 6.4% | 28.6% | 35.9% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Yrs | 22.7% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 16.1% | Season | 25.4% | 6.9% | 13.5% | 28.0% | Road | 24.1% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 12.1% | L14Days | 27.1% | 6.3% | 23.1% | 33.4% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.4% | 9.2% | 18.1% | 18.9% | Season | 28.4% | 8.4% | 14.8% | 12.8% | Road | 20.0% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 20.9% | L14Days | 29.8% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 32.1% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Home | 18.2% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 17.5% | RH | 18.6% | 8.4% | 15.1% | 20.3% | L7Days | 22.7% | 11.6% | 15.4% | 19.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 23.5% | 7.3% | 16.1% | 20.3% | RH | 23.8% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 12.3% | L7Days | 27.4% | 7.9% | 16.7% | 14.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.2% | 10.2% | 16.3% | 19.7% | RH | 20.2% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 15.0% | L7Days | 20.7% | 7.5% | 20.7% | 17.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 24.4% | 9.4% | 18.1% | 9.1% | LH | 24.0% | 9.2% | 16.7% | 16.2% | L7Days | 22.9% | 9.3% | 17.1% | 7.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 24.7% | 9.1% | 16.2% | 15.5% | LH | 22.5% | 11.9% | 16.5% | 16.4% | L7Days | 25.5% | 4.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 26.3% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.3% | RH | 26.4% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.2% | 8.5% | 10.3% | -2.8% |
| Padres | Home | 25.5% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 18.9% | LH | 25.8% | 7.5% | 16.3% | 17.0% | L7Days | 29.6% | 4.9% | 13.3% | 9.7% |
| Giants | Road | 27.1% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 18.3% | RH | 25.6% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 22.0% | L7Days | 29.4% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 12.6% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.7% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 18.2% | RH | 20.4% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 13.7% | L7Days | 20.0% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 18.2% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 25.9% | RH | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 24.6% | L7Days | 22.4% | 5.1% | 10.0% | 31.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 24.5% | 10.0% | 14.2% | 19.4% | LH | 22.8% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 17.8% | L7Days | 29.2% | 7.2% | 15.0% | 22.9% |
| Astros | Road | 21.0% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 21.8% | RH | 21.9% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 17.3% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.8% | 16.4% | 27.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.4% | 6.6% | 12.3% | 9.1% | RH | 20.3% | 7.2% | 13.5% | 17.6% | L7Days | 22.8% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 19.0% |
| Indians | Home | 20.6% | 8.8% | 16.1% | 28.1% | RH | 23.9% | 8.4% | 15.4% | 21.7% | L7Days | 20.6% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 16.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 25.1% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 8.8% | LH | 21.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 25.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 14.6% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.7% | 8.1% | 14.4% | 12.8% | LH | 23.4% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 15.1% | L7Days | 24.9% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 18.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 26.1% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 20.2% | RH | 26.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 14.2% | L7Days | 23.9% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 23.7% |
| Braves | Home | 18.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 22.3% | RH | 20.7% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 17.4% | L7Days | 25.9% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% |
| Twins | Road | 23.1% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 17.8% | RH | 22.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 21.3% | L7Days | 21.7% | 7.2% | 1.8% | 23.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 22.1% | 13.0% | 16.9% | 19.7% | RH | 22.7% | 10.8% | 17.0% | 19.9% | L7Days | 20.9% | 8.3% | 22.9% | 15.7% |
| Royals | Home | 18.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 22.8% | RH | 17.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 21.1% | L7Days | 19.0% | 6.7% | 12.7% | 19.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.4% | 9.7% | 15.3% | 22.5% | RH | 24.7% | 8.4% | 16.7% | 17.2% | L7Days | 23.1% | 10.6% | 14.8% | 31.0% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.4% | 6.3% | 14.5% | 16.0% | LH | 26.4% | 8.4% | 16.1% | 16.7% | L7Days | 22.4% | 12.5% | 22.0% | 18.4% |
| Angels | Road | 18.1% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 15.4% | LH | 20.1% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 13.1% | L7Days | 19.7% | 14.1% | 10.0% | 15.6% |
| Reds | Road | 19.6% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 14.9% | RH | 21.5% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 16.0% | L7Days | 21.4% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 14.0% |
| Mets | Road | 22.3% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 17.9% | LH | 27.0% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 11.3% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 22.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | LH | 19.5% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.3% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 11.8% |
| Rays | Road | 22.2% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 14.2% | RH | 21.1% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 16.7% | L7Days | 21.1% | 12.6% | 7.3% | 9.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.0% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 24.7% | LH | 17.7% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 19.8% | L7Days | 18.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.7% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 10.4% | RH | 21.7% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 14.6% | L7Days | 16.7% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 14.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.8 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 16.8% | 9.8% | 1.71 | 16.4% | 8.8% | 1.86 |
| Adam Plutko | Indians | 19.6% | 7.9% | 2.48 | 19.6% | 7.9% | 2.48 |
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 11.6% | 6.0% | 1.93 | 14.8% | 6.4% | 2.31 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 22.7% | 6.6% | 3.44 | 20.5% | 6.1% | 3.36 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 18.2% | 8.2% | 2.22 | 20.8% | 8.5% | 2.45 |
| Brock Stewart | Dodgers | 13.6% | 8.5% | 1.60 | 13.6% | 8.5% | 1.60 |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | 31.7% | 11.9% | 2.66 | 30.8% | 10.8% | 2.85 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 16.1% | 8.9% | 1.81 | 15.5% | 9.5% | 1.63 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 22.5% | 9.1% | 2.47 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 2.57 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 22.8% | 13.0% | 1.75 | 20.9% | 11.3% | 1.85 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 23.3% | 9.1% | 2.56 | 25.6% | 9.1% | 2.81 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 27.2% | 13.6% | 2.00 | 25.6% | 13.8% | 1.86 |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 15.9% | 5.9% | 2.69 | 14.0% | 5.6% | 2.50 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 19.6% | 7.4% | 2.65 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 2.65 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 18.9% | 7.2% | 2.63 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.67 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 24.6% | 10.0% | 2.46 | 25.0% | 9.5% | 2.63 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 12.9% | 7.5% | 1.72 | 11.2% | 8.0% | 1.40 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 33.3% | 15.0% | 2.22 | 38.2% | 15.3% | 2.50 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 21.8% | 9.2% | 2.37 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 2.53 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 33.5% | 13.7% | 2.45 | 34.6% | 13.5% | 2.56 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 21.8% | 9.9% | 2.20 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 2.68 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.19 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.18 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 21.7% | 8.1% | 2.68 | 17.2% | 6.8% | 2.53 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 19.6% | 10.4% | 1.88 | 23.1% | 10.5% | 2.20 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 14.3% | 6.1% | 2.34 | 11.4% | 6.0% | 1.90 |
| Max Fried | Braves | 26.9% | 12.8% | 2.10 | 33.3% | 15.8% | 2.11 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 13.6% | 9.0% | 1.51 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 1.89 |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 25.2% | 14.0% | 1.80 | 22.6% | 13.0% | 1.74 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.40 | 30.2% | 10.7% | 2.82 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 28.4% | 11.3% | 2.51 | 30.1% | 11.8% | 2.55 |
Caleb Smith has a SwStr% just above league average over the last month.
Mike Montgomery is not going to break out, but should be generating a few more strikeouts and has over the last month.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.22 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.17 xFIP – 4.29 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 4.07 | 5.28 | 1.21 | 4.07 | 1.15 | 4.93 | 0.86 | 7.72 | 3.65 | 4.56 | 5.81 | 1.25 | 5.47 | 0.91 | 5.69 | 1.13 |
| Adam Plutko | Indians | 2.03 | 4.82 | 2.79 | 2.03 | 3.14 | 5.43 | 3.40 | 6.27 | 4.24 | 2.03 | 4.82 | 2.79 | 5.17 | 3.14 | 5.43 | 3.40 |
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 7.32 | 4.62 | -2.70 | 7.32 | -2.76 | 5.40 | -1.92 | 7.82 | 0.50 | 4.88 | 4.26 | -0.62 | 4.21 | -0.67 | 4.81 | -0.07 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 5.68 | 3.68 | -2.00 | 5.68 | -2.17 | 4.34 | -1.34 | 4.58 | -1.10 | 5.47 | 4.07 | -1.40 | 3.88 | -1.59 | 4.13 | -1.34 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 4.56 | 4.22 | -0.34 | 4.56 | -0.48 | 4.52 | -0.04 | 4.72 | 0.16 | 3.52 | 3.81 | 0.29 | 3.84 | 0.32 | 5.54 | 2.02 |
| Brock Stewart | Dodgers | 3.72 | 4.99 | 1.27 | 3.72 | 1.54 | 6.11 | 2.39 | 4.44 | 0.72 | 3.72 | 4.99 | 1.27 | 5.26 | 1.54 | 6.11 | 2.39 |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | 3.83 | 3.63 | -0.20 | 3.83 | -0.13 | 3.05 | -0.78 | 3.38 | -0.45 | 2.28 | 3.33 | 1.05 | 3.33 | 1.05 | 1.81 | -0.47 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 3.30 | 4.82 | 1.52 | 3.30 | 1.19 | 4.26 | 0.96 | 3.31 | 0.01 | 4.20 | 4.70 | 0.50 | 4.35 | 0.15 | 4.14 | -0.06 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 4.20 | 4.08 | -0.12 | 4.20 | -0.12 | 4.67 | 0.47 | 3.98 | -0.22 | 3.86 | 4.05 | 0.19 | 4.08 | 0.22 | 5.54 | 1.68 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 4.68 | 3.96 | -0.72 | 4.68 | -0.82 | 4.07 | -0.61 | 5.20 | 0.52 | 2.76 | 4.26 | 1.50 | 3.94 | 1.18 | 3.75 | 0.99 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 4.08 | 4.12 | 0.04 | 4.08 | 0.12 | 3.75 | -0.33 | 4.91 | 0.83 | 5.16 | 3.90 | -1.26 | 3.95 | -1.21 | 4.02 | -1.14 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 5.59 | 3.83 | -1.76 | 5.59 | -1.78 | 4.66 | -0.93 | 3.04 | -2.55 | 5.79 | 4.02 | -1.77 | 3.96 | -1.83 | 4.66 | -1.13 |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 4.22 | 4.47 | 0.25 | 4.22 | 0.20 | 5.35 | 1.13 | 7.88 | 3.66 | 4.40 | 4.53 | 0.13 | 4.53 | 0.13 | 5.91 | 1.51 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 3.46 | 3.70 | 0.24 | 3.46 | 0.00 | 2.34 | -1.12 | 5.93 | 2.47 | 3.46 | 3.70 | 0.24 | 3.46 | 0.00 | 2.34 | -1.12 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 6.67 | 4.78 | -1.89 | 6.67 | -1.82 | 5.59 | -1.08 | 6.49 | -0.18 | 5.25 | 4.50 | -0.75 | 4.62 | -0.63 | 5.11 | -0.14 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 2.38 | 4.00 | 1.62 | 2.38 | 1.38 | 3.06 | 0.68 | 2.97 | 0.59 | 1.80 | 3.98 | 2.18 | 3.68 | 1.88 | 3.31 | 1.51 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 6.21 | 5.33 | -0.88 | 6.21 | -0.90 | 6.06 | -0.15 | 5.91 | -0.30 | 9.13 | 5.68 | -3.45 | 5.63 | -3.50 | 7.29 | -1.84 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 1.54 | 2.74 | 1.20 | 1.54 | 1.01 | 1.89 | 0.35 | 2.15 | 0.61 | 0.47 | 2.30 | 1.83 | 2.27 | 1.80 | 1.16 | 0.69 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 3.52 | 3.84 | 0.32 | 3.52 | 0.55 | 4.43 | 0.91 | 4.53 | 1.01 | 3.72 | 3.53 | -0.19 | 3.5 | -0.22 | 3.01 | -0.71 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 1.08 | 2.80 | 1.72 | 1.08 | 2.29 | 2.04 | 0.96 | 1.94 | 0.86 | 0.77 | 2.66 | 1.89 | 3.16 | 2.39 | 1.22 | 0.45 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 6.34 | 4.79 | -1.55 | 6.34 | -1.99 | 4.95 | -1.39 | 6.77 | 0.43 | 5.33 | 4.33 | -1.00 | 4.04 | -1.29 | 4.37 | -0.96 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 4.31 | 4.08 | -0.23 | 4.31 | -0.30 | 3.51 | -0.80 | 3.85 | -0.46 | 3.81 | 3.72 | -0.09 | 3.5 | -0.31 | 3.29 | -0.52 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 4.05 | 3.55 | -0.50 | 4.05 | -0.84 | 3.22 | -0.83 | 3.48 | -0.57 | 2.93 | 4.17 | 1.24 | 3.83 | 0.90 | 3.73 | 0.80 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 3.29 | 4.57 | 1.28 | 3.29 | 1.54 | 3.44 | 0.15 | 5.99 | 2.70 | 3.72 | 4.09 | 0.37 | 4.16 | 0.44 | 2.49 | -1.23 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 3.77 | 4.85 | 1.08 | 3.77 | 1.06 | 5.71 | 1.94 | 3.55 | -0.22 | 4.66 | 5.29 | 0.63 | 5.34 | 0.68 | 6.87 | 2.21 |
| Max Fried | Braves | 6.00 | 3.70 | -2.30 | 6.00 | -1.84 | 8.78 | 2.78 | 4.35 | -1.65 | 3.00 | 2.58 | -0.42 | 3.06 | 0.06 | 5.78 | 2.78 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 5.33 | 4.22 | -1.11 | 5.33 | -0.83 | 4.25 | -1.08 | 4.04 | -1.29 | 5.28 | 3.84 | -1.44 | 4.1 | -1.18 | 3.37 | -1.91 |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 2.75 | 3.12 | 0.37 | 2.75 | 0.19 | 3.44 | 0.69 | 2.68 | -0.07 | 3.00 | 3.21 | 0.21 | 3.05 | 0.05 | 3.73 | 0.73 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 3.11 | 3.50 | 0.39 | 3.11 | 0.42 | 3.66 | 0.55 | 3.66 | 0.55 | 3.25 | 3.07 | -0.18 | 3.24 | -0.01 | 4.48 | 1.23 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 4.18 | 3.49 | -0.69 | 4.18 | -0.48 | 4.06 | -0.12 | 2.74 | -1.44 | 3.86 | 3.60 | -0.26 | 3.99 | 0.13 | 5.02 | 1.16 |
Gio Gonzalez has a normal BABIP (.291), but an 81.9 LOB% and 6.1 HR/FB that might see some regression. Remember, his 21 HRs allowed last season were a career high and nowhere near bad considering the current environment.
Jacob deGrom has an 85.9 LOB% and 5.0 HR/FB, but he’s missing so many bats and generating such favorable contact that regression may be limited. Even if he were to drop all the way to his estimators, they’re still well below three.
Mike Montgomery has just a 65.3 LOB%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .287 BABIP – 43.1 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.1 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 0.308 | 0.276 | -0.032 | 52.4% | 17.9% | 10.0% | 82.8% | 37.8% |
| Adam Plutko | Indians | 0.283 | 0.147 | -0.136 | 29.7% | 10.8% | 4.5% | 89.5% | 32.0% |
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.327 | 0.396 | 0.069 | 51.3% | 20.5% | 6.8% | 90.5% | 39.4% |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 0.298 | 0.348 | 0.050 | 42.4% | 22.8% | 9.4% | 90.7% | 38.6% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 0.267 | 0.295 | 0.028 | 35.1% | 30.4% | 17.2% | 89.4% | 33.0% |
| Brock Stewart | Dodgers | 0.293 | 0.258 | -0.035 | 42.4% | 24.2% | 9.1% | 85.7% | 39.7% |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | 0.292 | 0.279 | -0.013 | 31.3% | 22.3% | 15.4% | 81.0% | 40.0% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.296 | 0.253 | -0.043 | 47.2% | 20.5% | 5.3% | 85.6% | 34.4% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 0.297 | 0.303 | 0.006 | 36.7% | 25.3% | 8.3% | 84.8% | 39.7% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 0.277 | 0.311 | 0.034 | 42.6% | 23.4% | 12.5% | 83.8% | 41.7% |
| David Price | Red Sox | 0.296 | 0.283 | -0.013 | 43.0% | 16.5% | 18.8% | 84.3% | 38.4% |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 0.281 | 0.271 | -0.010 | 40.0% | 26.7% | 12.0% | 80.0% | 25.9% |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 0.302 | 0.310 | 0.008 | 48.8% | 24.4% | 11.4% | 90.3% | 32.0% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 0.292 | 0.317 | 0.025 | 58.5% | 19.5% | 0.0% | 91.4% | 32.4% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.305 | 0.375 | 0.070 | 33.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 84.4% | 49.4% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.277 | 0.297 | 0.020 | 51.6% | 17.2% | 4.1% | 84.9% | 32.2% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.301 | 0.312 | 0.011 | 39.4% | 22.2% | 9.0% | 92.4% | 38.5% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.306 | 0.301 | -0.005 | 43.5% | 26.0% | 27.5% | 76.6% | 35.7% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.307 | 0.253 | -0.054 | 40.0% | 18.3% | 9.3% | 90.7% | 27.5% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.263 | 0.209 | -0.054 | 29.1% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 77.8% | 30.2% |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.296 | 0.371 | 0.075 | 52.3% | 23.1% | 6.3% | 86.2% | 41.9% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.285 | 0.292 | 0.007 | 43.2% | 20.0% | 19.3% | 84.7% | 40.4% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.288 | 0.352 | 0.064 | 46.0% | 29.4% | 7.5% | 86.4% | 32.8% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.287 | 0.248 | -0.039 | 32.9% | 19.9% | 8.7% | 86.2% | 38.0% |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 0.264 | 0.222 | -0.042 | 44.0% | 19.4% | 8.2% | 91.7% | 40.2% |
| Max Fried | Braves | 0.288 | 0.154 | -0.134 | 33.3% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 88.5% | 27.2% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 0.269 | 0.305 | 0.036 | 63.0% | 12.3% | 15.0% | 87.2% | 30.2% |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 0.283 | 0.244 | -0.039 | 60.4% | 16.5% | 9.5% | 82.7% | 26.7% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.290 | 0.306 | 0.016 | 48.4% | 17.6% | 5.8% | 81.7% | 32.3% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.294 | 0.326 | 0.032 | 35.8% | 19.7% | 8.2% | 80.6% | 41.1% |
Chris Archer has a .297 career BABIP, a high line drive rate and is not getting as many swings at his slider outside the zone as he’d probably like. That said, he has a high infield fly rate and the slider is still being missed inside the zone, while the defense/shifting has worked well. It’s tough to figure out which way this one will go, if it moves much at all.
Jacob deGrom has generated 11 infield flies in 40 fly balls!
Marco Gonzales has a .352 BABIP and a sky high LD rate. It’s hopeful that both will regress. His exit velocity numbers are bordering on ugly, but not the worst on the board.
Mike Montgomery doesn’t have a high BABIP, but it’s a bit above .300 with a great defense and a strong batted ball profile in addition to what appears to be a lot of weak ground balls.
Vince Velasquez really has nothing to support the high BABIP, especially with the low ground ball rate.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 0.385 | -0.056 | 0.361 | -0.058 | 0.441 | -0.104 | -0.200 | 89.8 | 8.9 | 42.300 | 168 |
| Adam Plutko | Indians | 0.314 | -0.029 | 0.280 | 0.064 | 0.314 | -0.029 | -1.100 | 92.9 | 8.1 | 59.500 | 37 |
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.391 | 0.043 | 0.301 | -0.019 | 0.352 | 0.029 | -1.900 | 90.5 | 8.3 | 47.800 | 157 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 0.375 | -0.008 | 0.437 | -0.001 | 0.390 | -0.011 | -1.900 | 88.9 | 9.5 | 33.700 | 95 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 0.345 | -0.013 | 0.326 | 0.000 | 0.344 | -0.009 | 0.800 | 84.2 | 8.6 | 29.700 | 175 |
| Brock Stewart | Dodgers | 0.403 | -0.066 | 0.327 | -0.075 | 0.403 | -0.066 | -0.200 | 88.2 | 6.1 | 36.400 | 33 |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | 0.305 | -0.035 | 0.324 | -0.021 | 0.257 | -0.039 | -2.100 | 88.2 | 7.8 | 35.700 | 115 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.347 | -0.051 | 0.325 | 0.010 | 0.325 | -0.022 | -0.700 | 88.2 | 6.1 | 39.400 | 180 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 0.381 | -0.041 | 0.339 | -0.008 | 0.360 | -0.044 | -0.500 | 89.4 | 9.3 | 39.500 | 162 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 0.357 | -0.032 | 0.326 | 0.009 | 0.367 | -0.097 | -1.100 | 90.3 | 7.9 | 38.600 | 189 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 0.340 | -0.041 | 0.315 | -0.045 | 0.354 | -0.032 | -0.700 | 87.2 | 8.9 | 32.900 | 158 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 0.303 | 0.001 | 0.300 | -0.029 | 0.296 | -0.002 | -1.200 | 86.6 | 4.0 | 30.700 | 75 |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 0.379 | -0.020 | 0.333 | -0.020 | 0.365 | -0.001 | -0.100 | 88.2 | 9.1 | 43.300 | 164 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 0.300 | -0.034 | 0.434 | 0.003 | 0.300 | -0.034 | -0.900 | 89.1 | 4.9 | 34.100 | 41 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.369 | 0.034 | 0.401 | 0.060 | 0.352 | 0.033 | -0.500 | 89.3 | 8.5 | 33.000 | 94 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.296 | -0.011 | 0.287 | -0.011 | 0.288 | -0.023 | -1.100 | 87.2 | 5.1 | 31.600 | 158 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.413 | -0.034 | 0.386 | -0.035 | 0.426 | 0.038 | -0.200 | 88.3 | 9.4 | 45.800 | 212 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.236 | -0.003 | 0.285 | 0.005 | 0.240 | -0.028 | 0.900 | 85.2 | 2.2 | 24.400 | 135 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.334 | -0.037 | 0.358 | -0.031 | 0.296 | 0.017 | -0.800 | 88.3 | 11.0 | 32.000 | 181 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.232 | -0.033 | 0.300 | -0.011 | 0.193 | -0.010 | -1.200 | 86.7 | 6.0 | 29.900 | 167 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.364 | 0.012 | 0.331 | 0.008 | 0.359 | 0.011 | -0.300 | 89.3 | 6.9 | 42.300 | 130 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.311 | -0.021 | 0.283 | 0.012 | 0.289 | -0.012 | -0.800 | 85.1 | 5.7 | 29.600 | 159 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.347 | -0.022 | 0.334 | 0.021 | 0.356 | -0.042 | -0.600 | 88.9 | 6.1 | 40.900 | 164 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.296 | -0.034 | 0.321 | -0.017 | 0.289 | -0.025 | -0.800 | 86.2 | 5.4 | 24.300 | 148 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 0.418 | -0.094 | 0.427 | -0.069 | 0.440 | -0.076 | -0.600 | 91.3 | 15.6 | 45.900 | 135 |
| Max Fried | Braves | 0.335 | 0.056 | 0.374 | -0.025 | 0.243 | 0.053 | 0.000 | ||||
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 0.308 | 0.013 | 0.292 | -0.028 | 0.264 | 0.011 | -0.400 | 84.4 | 3.6 | 26.200 | 84 |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 0.316 | -0.054 | 0.278 | -0.015 | 0.320 | -0.062 | -0.500 | 90.2 | 7.5 | 40.900 | 93 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.307 | -0.008 | 0.301 | 0.008 | 0.308 | 0.029 | -0.700 | 90.1 | 7.1 | 39.600 | 154 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.287 | 0.043 | 0.331 | -0.021 | 0.277 | 0.073 | -0.100 | 88.5 | 6.4 | 34.800 | 141 |
Jacob deGrom has been amazing. Considering the number of strikeouts, virtually nobody is making good contact against him.
It might go over-looked because the top two guys 50 or more points better, but Vince Velasquez and Matt Body are two of the three remaining pitchers on this board with a sub-.300 xwOBA.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
DraftKings pricing has been factored in below. Nobody else is close to the top two guys overall today. It’s unfortunate to find them both (along with my projected top value) on the early slate. The good news is that it does offer a cheapie to pair with them.
Value Tier One
Max Fried is priced down because he’s thrown just six major league innings this season, all out of the pen. He’s recently pitched into the seventh in his last minor league start and is in a great spot this afternoon at the minimum.
Jacob deGrom (1) remains too cheap on DraftKings ($11.1K) for the elite production.
Value Tier Two
Marco Gonzales isn’t missing a lot of bats, but has completing six innings on a regular basis and is in a nice spot with some upside at a reasonable price at home against the Rangers.
Trevor Cahill has struck out just four in two starts, but part of that has been a function of opposition. The SwStr% is still healthy and you’re not going to get that along with an elite ground ball rate at a cost around or below $8K very much. The Rays can hit fastballs, but even his sinker is a pitcher he throws less than 40% of the time.
Caleb Smith will not sustain his strikeout rate for the rest of the season, but I can’t find many reasons why he may not in San Diego today.
Value Tier Three
Brent Suter is a strong contact manager, who misses enough bats at a very low cost in a reasonable spot against the Cardinals.
Vince Velasquez is a high upside arm that’s not very consistent. The matchup is better than it should be using current numbers. There’s certainly risk here and his DraftKings cost might be too high, but that may also keep people away and the FanDuel price is reasonable.
Luke Weaver has been pitching well and going deeper into games. The matchup in Milwaukee is dangerous, but if he’s going to be getting in six to seven innings consistently, the cost should be higher.
Justin Verlander (2) is extremely expensive in a terrible spot. It’s one he has excelled in before, even this season, but in a more negative run environment.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Mike Montgomery shouldn’t be expected to do much, but could throw four or five competent innings (75 pitches?) at the minimum cost in an SP2 spot…if necessary.
Chris Archer has looked better in recent starts, but there are remaining reasons for caution and the cost is rising.
Gio Gonzalez is never a pitcher you comfortably roster at a high price. He’s in a dangerous, but high upside spot in Baltimore. One thing he can usually be counted on to do is keep the ball in the park too, which counters some of the risk in this park.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.