Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, May 29th

Due to the special circumstances, we’re going to cover all 15 games including afternoon games again. This is not a very pitcher friendly slate. It doesn’t necessarily lack depth in usable arms, but is wanting for upside. Only one pitcher with more than 20 innings and two starts exceeds a 22.5 K% and he’s had his own recent issues. In fact, it’s difficult to project hardly anyone for a much above average or high point per dollar performance tonight.

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Pitcher Team Team
Def
SIERA
L2Yrs
IP/GS
L2Yrs
GB%
L2Yrs
Park
Run
Hm/Rd
xFIP
SIERA
L14
Opp Opp
Hm/Rd
Opp L/R
wRC+
Opp L7
wRC+
Brad Peacock HOU -3.5 3.93 4.83 44.4% 1.04 5.33 2.94 MIN 101 111 112
Carlos Carrasco CLE -8.8 3.15 6.13 49.6% 1.09 3.56 4.63 OAK 85 106 111
Daniel Mengden OAK -7.8 4.5 5.14 39.5% 1.09 4.6 CLE 109 104 122
Daniel Norris DET 4.3 4.19 5.14 41.5% 1.06 4.14 3.66 KAN 79 65 76
David Holmberg CHW -2.7 5.47 4.68 41.9% 0.98 4.13 4.35 BOS 111 98 111
David Price BOS 0.4 3.37 6.72 43.4% 0.98 3.84 CHW 106 132 114
Dylan Bundy BAL -3.4 4.38 5.67 34.5% 1.02 4.41 5.27 NYY 106 120 84
Edinson Volquez MIA 4.8 4.59 5.66 48.5% 0.94 4.4 5.3 PHI 79 89 59
Erasmo Ramirez TAM -0.1 3.89 5.77 49.8% 1.11 4.35 3.6 TEX 102 97 76
Ervin Santana MIN 11 4.42 6.3 41.9% 1.04 4.37 5.48 HOU 116 121 130
Jarred Cosart SDG -9.1 5.39 4.27 58.4% 0.91 4.6 5.93 CHC 85 86 86
Jason Hammel KAN 8.5 4.14 5.3 39.2% 1.06 4.23 5.11 DET 85 96 75
Jeremy Hellickson PHI 11.1 4.29 5.65 39.7% 0.94 4.74 6.12 MIA 89 89 132
Jordan Montgomery NYY 0 4.32 5.75 35.9% 1.02 4.92 4.1 BAL 90 97 60
Julio Teheran ATL 5.4 4.19 6.17 38.6% 0.91 4.55 4.45 ANA 111 92 86
Kyle Hendricks CHC 3.4 3.6 5.94 49.8% 0.91 4.1 4.12 SDG 73 81 73
Lisalverto Bonilla CIN 20.7 5.15 6.03 41.2% 1.03 4.93 6.11 TOR 88 90 114
Marcus Stroman TOR -2.4 3.6 6.37 60.6% 1.03 3.44 3.38 CIN 101 103 107
Martin Perez TEX 0.7 4.83 5.86 53.5% 1.11 4.54 3.44 TAM 102 90 99
Matt Garza MIL -5.8 4.57 5.58 49.1% 0.91 4.65 4.22 NYM 84 100 131
Matt Moore SFO 2.1 4.5 5.8 38.5% 0.93 4.29 5.22 WAS 102 121 113
Mike Leake STL -10.2 3.9 6.21 53.0% 0.98 3.49 3.07 LOS 92 112 82
Randall Delgado ARI -5 3.98 3.05 42.0% 0.97 5.09 3.56 PIT 93 87 118
Rich Hill LOS -1.3 3.31 5.58 45.2% 0.98 3.02 5.17 STL 98 81 67
Ricky Nolasco ANA -4.1 4.33 5.89 0.411 0.91 4.4 4.75 ATL 92 94 100
Robert Gsellman NYM -4.1 4.01 5.41 0.544 0.91 3.39 4.34 MIL 99 97 70
Sam Gaviglio SEA 5.3 4.87 5.5 0.415 1.39 4.86 5.86 COL 77 80 94
Tanner Roark WAS -6 4.23 6.04 0.479 0.93 4.33 4.04 SFO 73 74 73
Trevor Williams PIT -5.8 4.53 4.44 0.445 0.97 5.34 4.26 ARI 74 108 86
Tyler Chatwood COL 2.6 4.59 5.89 0.571 1.39 4.23 5.07 SEA 91 109 77


Carlos Carrasco has allowed nine runs in his last 10 innings, but the most pertinent information is that he’s walked seven of 49 batters with a 46.4 Hard% and now has allowed Barrels on 10.2% of batted balls, though his hard hit rate remains just below 30%. The good news is that he’s retained a double digit SwStr% in six straight starts now. While he threw 48.1% of pitches in the strike zone, it’s been his failure to throw strike one that’s been an issue recently, as he’s now gone four straight starts with an F-Strike rate below 53%. For the year he’s at a much more efficient 60.5%. Oakland comes to down with some pop (16.0 HR/FB vs RHP). The offense has not really been the problem for them this year.

Daniel Mengden had nearly league average peripherals last year, but though he didn’t suffer from hard contact at a particularly high rate (29.5%), he did generate a 24.1 LD%, which led to a .344 BABIP. He’s experienced similar issues through four AAA starts this season (26.4 LD%), but somehow managed a .221 BABIP. He’s put up a K-BB between 17% and 19% at every level of the minors since being traded to the A’s in 2015. Here is some talent there if he can improve his major league walk rate from last season (9.9%). He makes his return to the majors in a difficult spot in Cleveland.

Daniel Norris has a 19.3 K%. He has a walk issue (10.1%) and a major issue with hard contact (43%). It hasn’t shown up in his LD rate or HR/FB, but he does have a .342 BABIP. He’s somehow avoiding those perfect launch angles often enough right now. He faces the second worst offense in baseball vs LHP (28.8 Hard%, 9.6 HR/FB).

Erasmo Ramirez finished last night’s marathon with Minnesota, but is still scheduled to start today. He threw 82 pitches in his last start, so perhaps the 12 yesterday keeps him around 80 again. He generally keeps the ball on the ground more than 50% of the time and misses enough bats to be useful, though he has struggled with hard contact this season (39.4%). The Rangers are a neutral offense in a tough park.

Jordan Montgomery is coming off maybe his best outing of the season (6.2 IP – 1 ER – 6 K – 22 BF) at home against Kansas City. His slider may be “better than Kershaw’s”:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-good-can-jordan-montgomery-be/ right now. The takeaway point is it’s been a quality pitch, even if most of the other stuff may be questionable. He’s been serviceable with a 13.1 K-BB% and doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact (25.6%), but pitches in another dangerous park for a fly ball pitcher (35.9 GB%). The good news is that Baltimore has been under-whelming at home this season and has struggled with LHP for a couple of years now (24.4 K% this season). Over the last week, they have a 28.3 K%, higher than their 26.8 Hard%. Against fly ball pitchers, they have a fifth worst 87 sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference).

Kyle Hendricks still has not regained any velocity (sitting at 86 mph this year!) and his 34.9 Hard% is nearly 10 points higher than last season, but he has been missing a few more bats and is up to a league average strikeout rate now. While concerns are more valid about his ERA gap this year, he’s got one of the best matchups on the board in Petco (Padres 25.2 K% and 5.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).

Marcus Stroman is a ground ball machine (61%), who has increased his strikeout rate to just above average with a strong month. His hard hit rate is around league average though and his BABIP tends to run high (.308 career). Cincinnati has been a quality offense this year and adds a 112 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers (eighth best).

Mike Leake has a league average SwStr% over the last month and the second highest strikeout rate of his career this season (17.7%). His 54.3 GB% is a career high, while a 4.2 BB% gives him a career high 13.4 K-BB% as well. While he’s been able to suppress power a bit more this year, St Louis is one of the more power suppressing parks early in the season with the cooler weather. However, three of his four HRs have come at home and he had a 13.5 HR/FB last year, his first as a Cardinal, matching his career rate. The Dodgers are a top offense against RHP, but do strike out more than average (22.6%) and have struggled on the road.

Tanner Roark has a 23.6 K% in May with a double digit SwStr% in three of five starts, yet his ERA is above five due to a .333 BABIP and 65% strand rate with four HRs. He has faced some poor offenses over that stretch (PHI twice, PIT), but the strikeout rate is a good sign none the less. While he hasn’t dominated contact as well as last year, that’s more because his weak contact rate is down (16.1%) rather than his hard contact being up (27.6%) with his 85.8 mph aEV still a favorable number. He might be in the top spot on the board in San Francisco tonight, at least from a run prevention standpoint. They don’t strike out a lot, but have just a 24.1 Hard% and 8.3 HR/FB at home.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)

Martin Perez (.333 – 76.5% – 7.5) has just a 6.8 K-BB%, but is above some pitchers you might expect here because the Rays have struggled against LHP (27.7 K%).

Ervin Santana (.136 – 91.5% – 8.9) has just a 5.0 K-BB% in May and has the worst matchup on the board outside Coors, hosting the Astros.

Dylan Bundy (.261 – 82.8% – 8.6) has allowed seven HRs over his last six starts with just a 6.9 K-BB% and 43.6 Hard%. His velocity has dropped nearly every time out.

Jeremy Hellickson (.222 – 75% – 12.5) has surpassed two strikeouts just twice this season with a high of five in 10 starts.

Jared Cosart (.327 – 65.5% – 0)

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Brad Peacock has thrown 16.1 of his 20.2 innings out of the bullpen this year. He did strike out eight of the 16 Tigers he faced in his first start (70 pitches), bringing his season strikeout rate up to 36.6%, but that comes along with a 14.6 BB%. Five of six batted balls were on the ground against the Tigers, but three were hit hard. It’s difficult to project how he’ll continue to fare in the rotation. His 1.2% Barrels/PA leads all pitchers today, but the track record is not in his favor because he’s always had major issues throwing strikes consistently. Minnesota has a double digit walk rate.

Randal Delgado wasn’t bad in his first start, but it was against the White Sox and he only threw 61 pitches. He could be decent again for four or five innings against a poor Pittsburgh offense with a nice park upgrade, but they don’t strike out a lot. He’s not an insane SP2 choice on DraftKings for just $600 above the minimum.

Robert Gsellman was a bit more serviceable in his last start against San Diego and does have a 54.5 GB%,, which should mitigate some of Milwaukee’s power (18.4 HR/FB vs RHP), but while they do strike out 24% of the time against RHP, he hasn’t struck out more than three in over a month.

Rich Hill did not experience any blister issues after his most recent start. That’s about where the good news ends. He lasted four innings in his worst start since emerging towards the end of the 2015 season, walking seven and allowing five runs for the first time over that span. Workload was less of a concern when he was dominating, but he hasn’t thrown more than 82 pitches in any of his four starts. He is in a favorable spot against a St Louis offense that struggles with LHP (22.4 K%, 6.4 HR/FB).

Edinson Volquez has a league average strikeout rate and a quality matchup with the fledgling Phillies. Over his last three starts, his walk rate has dropped to a manageable 9.2%, but his strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff too (14.5% with a 7.7 SwStr%).

David Price faced a total of 32 batters in two rehab starts. Nine runs were scored (six earned) in 5.2 IP. He did strike out eight with just two walks.

Jason Hammel has six or seven strikeout in three of his last four starts, but none in the other one. While he did look decent last time out in Yankee Stadium of all places, he’s allowed seven HRs in his last five starts. He’s turned into more of an extreme fly ball pitcher this year (43%), which is fine in this park. The Tigers have been surprisingly below average against RHP (23.8 K%), but do have an impressive 10.3 BB% and 26.3 Hard% against them.

Tyler Chatwood

Julio Teheran gets to face the Angels without Mike Trout. I’m still confused why a pitcher with a 4.88 ERA and even higher estimators costs more than $8K with just a 17.1 K%.

Matt Garza hasn’t been bad at all, but there are a few not so obvious aspects working against him today. He’s allowed 37.4 Hard% overall, which his Statcast numbers support and his wOBA allowed to LHBs just requires a decimal move on spot to the right on his hard hit rate. The Mets have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last week (44.8 Hard%) and don’t strike out a lot.

Ricky Nolasco has nice peripherals. Look, he has a 14.4 K-BB%…nice peripherals. He has a 23.8 K% and 12.0 SwStr% over the last month. More nice stuff. He’s also allowed multiple HRs in seven of 10 starts. He has a 37.7 Hard%, his 89.4 mph aEV is second highest on the board, and his 12% Barrels/BBE is worst.

Lisalverto Bonilla had a SwStr rate above 14% in each of his first two starts and has an 83.5 mph aEV that’s second lowest on the board with just a 5.4 Hard-Soft%. He’s also allowed five HRs in 23.1 IP with a high barrel rate (8.1% per BBE) with just a 3.8 SwStr% in his last start. While Toronto has been a bit of disappointment, they now have all of their bats back and supposedly healthy.

Trevor Williams

David Holmberg has made eight relief appearances with a .111 BABIP and 17.1 K%.

Sam Gaviglio

Matt Moore

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Pitcher Team Split K% BB% Split K% BB% Split K% BB%
Brad Peacock Astros L2 Years 27.8% 12.4% Road 19.6% 11.8% L14 Days 34.5% 13.8%
Carlos Carrasco Indians L2 Years 27.2% 6.0% Home 22.9% 7.1% L14 Days 24.5% 14.3%
Daniel Mengden Athletics L2 Years 21.4% 9.9% Road 19.6% 9.1% L14 Days
Daniel Norris Tigers L2 Years 20.9% 7.7% Road 20.9% 7.8% L14 Days 25.0% 7.7%
David Holmberg White Sox L2 Years 12.3% 10.5% Home 15.4% 7.7% L14 Days 18.2% 9.1%
David Price Red Sox L2 Years 25.4% 5.3% Road 21.2% 6.0% L14 Days
Dylan Bundy Orioles L2 Years 20.5% 8.3% Home 20.6% 6.4% L14 Days 17.2% 12.1%
Edinson Volquez Marlins L2 Years 17.7% 9.3% Home 19.2% 9.4% L14 Days 11.5% 9.6%
Erasmo Ramirez Rays L2 Years 18.0% 5.5% Road 14.4% 6.6% L14 Days 21.6% 3.9%
Ervin Santana Twins L2 Years 19.2% 7.9% Home 19.2% 7.8% L14 Days 15.0% 10.0%
Jarred Cosart Padres L2 Years 14.6% 14.6% Home 17.1% 12.9% L14 Days 11.1% 13.9%
Jason Hammel Royals L2 Years 21.4% 7.6% Home 20.8% 8.6% L14 Days 13.0% 5.6%
Jeremy Hellickson Phillies L2 Years 18.5% 6.0% Road 14.6% 6.2% L14 Days 7.3% 7.3%
Jordan Montgomery Yankees L2 Years 22.5% 9.4% Road 16.2% 12.2% L14 Days 22.7% 6.8%
Julio Teheran Braves L2 Years 20.7% 7.3% Road 19.5% 5.9% L14 Days 18.2% 6.8%
Kyle Hendricks Cubs L2 Years 22.8% 6.3% Road 21.6% 8.0% L14 Days 17.3% 3.9%
Lisalverto Bonilla Reds L2 Years 15.5% 10.7% Road 13.0% 9.3% L14 Days 10.0% 12.0%
Marcus Stroman Blue Jays L2 Years 19.3% 6.5% Home 18.6% 6.1% L14 Days 22.9% 10.4%
Martin Perez Rangers L2 Years 13.2% 8.5% Home 13.7% 8.3% L14 Days 23.5% 3.9%
Matt Garza Brewers L2 Years 15.5% 7.1% Road 13.3% 6.0% L14 Days 17.4% 2.2%
Matt Moore Giants L2 Years 19.8% 8.6% Home 22.2% 7.1% L14 Days 17.3% 11.5%
Mike Leake Cardinals L2 Years 16.7% 4.6% Home 16.8% 3.2% L14 Days 18.5% 0.0%
Randall Delgado Diamondbacks L2 Years 22.0% 9.9% Road 19.6% 10.9% L14 Days 22.9% 5.7%
Rich Hill Dodgers L2 Years 29.4% 8.1% Road 32.1% 6.2% L14 Days 23.8% 16.7%
Ricky Nolasco Angels L2 Years 18.6% 5.9% Home 17.7% 5.2% L14 Days 19.2% 9.6%
Robert Gsellman Mets L2 Years 19.0% 7.6% Home 20.1% 6.4% L14 Days 17.1% 5.7%
Sam Gaviglio Mariners L2 Years 13.0% 5.6% Road 14.7% 5.9% L14 Days 6.5% 6.5%
Tanner Roark Nationals L2 Years 19.2% 7.8% Road 17.9% 9.2% L14 Days 20.0% 7.3%
Trevor Williams Pirates L2 Years 16.8% 8.1% Home 14.3% 10.7% L14 Days 13.3% 4.4%
Tyler Chatwood Rockies L2 Years 18.2% 11.1% Home 17.0% 10.6% L14 Days 24.5% 18.4%

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Opponent Split K% BB% Split K% BB% Split K% BB%
Twins Home 21.5% 12.1% RH 21.7% 10.9% L7Days 22.4% 10.1%
Athletics Road 23.7% 9.3% RH 23.5% 9.5% L7Days 25.0% 9.6%
Indians Home 19.7% 10.2% RH 21.4% 9.3% L7Days 19.2% 9.4%
Royals Home 19.6% 7.5% LH 18.7% 7.5% L7Days 21.6% 4.7%
Red Sox Road 17.6% 9.6% LH 14.2% 10.7% L7Days 15.1% 12.9%
White Sox Home 20.9% 8.5% LH 17.1% 9.3% L7Days 23.6% 6.3%
Yankees Road 21.8% 9.4% RH 22.7% 9.7% L7Days 23.4% 10.2%
Phillies Road 23.4% 7.3% RH 21.9% 8.2% L7Days 24.2% 7.4%
Rangers Home 21.3% 9.5% RH 22.4% 8.9% L7Days 28.2% 4.5%
Astros Road 19.3% 8.9% RH 18.5% 7.6% L7Days 14.3% 6.0%
Cubs Road 22.9% 9.9% RH 21.9% 8.8% L7Days 25.1% 5.9%
Tigers Road 25.8% 10.1% RH 23.8% 10.3% L7Days 28.9% 10.7%
Marlins Home 19.7% 8.2% RH 20.2% 6.7% L7Days 19.4% 7.1%
Orioles Home 20.4% 8.4% LH 24.4% 7.9% L7Days 28.3% 6.6%
Angels Home 18.0% 8.5% RH 20.3% 9.1% L7Days 19.6% 11.5%
Padres Home 22.1% 9.3% RH 25.2% 7.6% L7Days 29.6% 8.0%
Blue Jays Home 20.4% 8.2% RH 20.4% 7.3% L7Days 16.8% 7.6%
Reds Road 18.3% 7.5% RH 20.3% 8.3% L7Days 20.6% 6.1%
Rays Road 28.6% 10.4% LH 27.7% 11.1% L7Days 25.3% 9.6%
Mets Home 19.8% 9.6% RH 19.3% 9.3% L7Days 19.2% 8.0%
Nationals Road 20.8% 9.3% LH 21.3% 8.8% L7Days 18.7% 8.2%
Dodgers Road 22.4% 10.3% RH 22.6% 10.2% L7Days 31.2% 9.6%
Pirates Home 18.5% 9.9% RH 18.2% 8.7% L7Days 18.2% 9.1%
Cardinals Home 21.5% 10.1% LH 22.4% 10.3% L7Days 20.6% 8.3%
Braves Road 20.1% 7.9% RH 20.1% 8.4% L7Days 16.2% 7.0%
Brewers Road 22.6% 7.9% RH 24.0% 8.4% L7Days 26.0% 8.8%
Rockies Home 21.9% 6.6% RH 22.0% 7.4% L7Days 20.4% 5.2%
Giants Home 18.6% 6.8% RH 19.4% 7.2% L7Days 17.6% 8.6%
Diamondbacks Road 26.0% 8.6% RH 23.4% 8.8% L7Days 23.9% 6.5%
Mariners Road 21.3% 8.1% RH 20.7% 8.7% L7Days 23.2% 4.7%

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Pitcher Team Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St%
Brad Peacock Astros L2 Years 28.2% 10.5% 9.6% 2017 28.2% 0.0% -7.7% Road 29.0% 12.5% 13.1% L14 Days 26.7% 0.0% -6.6%
Carlos Carrasco Indians L2 Years 31.1% 15.0% 13.9% 2017 29.3% 12.8% 11.6% Home 37.3% 21.2% 23.2% L14 Days 46.4% 10.0% 25.0%
Daniel Mengden Athletics L2 Years 29.5% 11.3% 10.7% 2017 Road 27.7% 10.8% 5.9% L14 Days
Daniel Norris Tigers L2 Years 34.5% 11.1% 18.9% 2017 43.0% 7.4% 27.2% Road 35.7% 4.7% 22.0% L14 Days 36.4% 16.7% 18.2%
David Holmberg White Sox L2 Years 31.5% 19.2% 15.3% 2017 22.2% 0.0% -14.8% Home 0.0% 0.0% -70.0% L14 Days 25.0% 0.0% -6.3%
David Price Red Sox L2 Years 32.6% 11.4% 14.2% 2017 Road 34.2% 10.8% 15.3% L14 Days
Dylan Bundy Orioles L2 Years 29.8% 11.6% 6.4% 2017 33.0% 8.6% 10.0% Home 27.3% 11.1% 2.8% L14 Days 41.5% 16.7% 29.3%
Edinson Volquez Marlins L2 Years 31.5% 11.8% 13.2% 2017 37.8% 15.0% 22.2% Home 30.6% 10.1% 12.8% L14 Days 37.5% 22.2% 25.0%
Erasmo Ramirez Rays L2 Years 29.3% 12.2% 11.1% 2017 39.4% 11.4% 22.1% Road 30.5% 21.2% 11.5% L14 Days 44.7% 6.3% 34.2%
Ervin Santana Twins L2 Years 27.9% 9.6% 9.1% 2017 23.4% 8.9% 0.0% Home 26.9% 10.7% 6.0% L14 Days 15.6% 4.5% 0.0%
Jarred Cosart Padres L2 Years 28.5% 13.0% 6.0% 2017 32.7% 0.0% 15.4% Home 28.2% 8.0% 3.4% L14 Days 30.8% 0.0% 19.3%
Jason Hammel Royals L2 Years 32.9% 13.2% 14.8% 2017 32.7% 10.3% 15.7% Home 29.3% 9.7% 9.2% L14 Days 29.6% 15.0% 16.0%
Jeremy Hellickson Phillies L2 Years 28.6% 12.7% 9.1% 2017 27.9% 12.5% 6.3% Road 30.6% 12.9% 11.5% L14 Days 30.5% 13.0% 0.0%
Jordan Montgomery Yankees L2 Years 25.6% 8.2% 12.4% 2017 25.6% 8.2% 12.4% Road 20.8% 5.6% 11.4% L14 Days 32.3% 13.3% 29.1%
Julio Teheran Braves L2 Years 32.3% 10.6% 13.8% 2017 30.9% 12.0% 6.3% Road 31.9% 7.5% 13.6% L14 Days 25.0% 30.8% -6.3%
Kyle Hendricks Cubs L2 Years 26.4% 11.6% 3.9% 2017 34.9% 15.2% 11.2% Road 27.3% 11.6% 2.7% L14 Days 34.2% 14.3% 4.9%
Lisalverto Bonilla Reds L2 Years 28.4% 20.0% 5.4% 2017 28.4% 20.0% 5.4% Road 23.8% 21.4% 4.7% L14 Days 31.6% 18.2% 2.6%
Marcus Stroman Blue Jays L2 Years 30.4% 16.0% 10.8% 2017 29.3% 15.0% 7.0% Home 31.5% 11.8% 12.5% L14 Days 28.1% 40.0% 0.0%
Martin Perez Rangers L2 Years 29.5% 8.8% 12.9% 2017 34.8% 7.5% 19.8% Home 30.0% 10.2% 13.3% L14 Days 35.1% 7.7% 21.6%
Matt Garza Brewers L2 Years 34.6% 12.6% 17.3% 2017 37.4% 15.4% 27.1% Road 31.1% 8.1% 11.2% L14 Days 35.1% 17.6% 21.6%
Matt Moore Giants L2 Years 32.9% 11.1% 16.3% 2017 40.6% 13.2% 25.6% Home 33.4% 10.2% 16.9% L14 Days 35.1% 12.5% 21.6%
Mike Leake Cardinals L2 Years 30.1% 11.5% 13.2% 2017 29.0% 8.5% 12.3% Home 25.7% 15.9% 6.9% L14 Days 40.9% 10.0% 27.3%
Randall Delgado Diamondbacks L2 Years 32.3% 9.3% 15.3% 2017 29.5% 15.2% 14.8% Road 31.0% 7.7% 16.7% L14 Days 20.0% 10.0% -8.0%
Rich Hill Dodgers L2 Years 27.6% 6.7% 5.0% 2017 31.1% 16.7% 15.5% Road 26.3% 5.1% 1.9% L14 Days 29.2% 10.0% 8.4%
Ricky Nolasco Angels L2 Years 34.9% 13.8% 20.8% 2017 37.7% 20.3% 23.4% Home 30.5% 11.2% 14.6% L14 Days 40.5% 18.8% 24.3%
Robert Gsellman Mets L2 Years 30.6% 9.2% 11.2% 2017 32.5% 13.5% 12.1% Home 28.4% 8.8% 8.9% L14 Days 29.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Gaviglio Mariners L2 Years 32.6% 13.3% 18.6% 2017 32.6% 13.3% 18.6% Road 29.6% 18.2% 22.2% L14 Days 30.8% 7.7% 18.0%
Tanner Roark Nationals L2 Years 25.5% 11.7% 4.0% 2017 27.6% 11.5% 11.5% Road 23.7% 13.2% 1.4% L14 Days 27.5% 18.2% 17.5%
Trevor Williams Pirates L2 Years 26.5% 18.0% 2.0% 2017 24.5% 13.5% -3.0% Home 31.8% 4.3% 8.0% L14 Days 25.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Chatwood Rockies L2 Years 29.4% 15.5% 9.4% 2017 29.1% 26.5% 6.1% Home 33.8% 22.5% 19.3% L14 Days 17.9% 0.0% -14.2%

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

Opponent Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St%
Twins Home 33.1% 10.7% 17.2% RH 33.8% 13.5% 18.9% L7Days 35.4% 9.8% 22.7%
Athletics Road 35.6% 11.1% 17.2% RH 35.5% 15.9% 19.4% L7Days 30.0% 15.2% 13.3%
Indians Home 30.9% 13.0% 14.7% RH 34.1% 11.9% 17.7% L7Days 30.5% 15.3% 16.1%
Royals Home 30.3% 9.3% 10.7% LH 28.8% 9.6% 9.7% L7Days 31.0% 15.5% 13.6%
Red Sox Road 34.4% 11.0% 16.3% LH 33.5% 7.6% 11.0% L7Days 32.9% 6.5% 17.7%
White Sox Home 27.5% 11.4% 6.7% LH 30.9% 13.0% 12.8% L7Days 31.6% 20.8% 13.0%
Yankees Road 29.6% 12.4% 11.1% RH 30.7% 17.3% 10.8% L7Days 30.8% 12.1% 7.5%
Phillies Road 29.3% 11.2% 7.0% RH 29.1% 11.2% 7.1% L7Days 30.1% 12.7% 9.8%
Rangers Home 34.1% 15.0% 14.9% RH 33.1% 14.4% 12.7% L7Days 30.6% 10.9% 7.5%
Astros Road 31.4% 11.7% 13.2% RH 31.2% 14.6% 13.1% L7Days 28.9% 15.1% 13.7%
Cubs Road 28.6% 12.5% 8.7% RH 29.9% 12.5% 13.1% L7Days 33.3% 21.3% 14.2%
Tigers Road 36.0% 12.7% 19.0% RH 41.9% 12.2% 26.3% L7Days 34.1% 11.7% 17.0%
Marlins Home 33.1% 15.1% 12.2% RH 31.4% 13.1% 11.3% L7Days 32.2% 17.1% 10.5%
Orioles Home 27.5% 12.7% 7.1% LH 37.4% 12.1% 19.1% L7Days 26.8% 12.5% 7.2%
Angels Home 28.9% 12.9% 8.8% RH 30.7% 12.7% 10.4% L7Days 39.2% 11.1% 22.1%
Padres Home 26.3% 10.3% 2.1% RH 28.5% 13.8% 5.7% L7Days 28.6% 8.2% 2.9%
Blue Jays Home 29.6% 11.3% 9.4% RH 30.7% 14.1% 10.0% L7Days 33.8% 17.6% 13.9%
Reds Road 28.6% 13.4% 7.4% RH 28.7% 13.3% 8.3% L7Days 28.8% 16.9% 7.9%
Rays Road 37.0% 17.5% 19.2% LH 35.3% 11.8% 14.9% L7Days 41.8% 15.5% 30.3%
Mets Home 32.6% 8.8% 12.6% RH 35.4% 12.3% 17.6% L7Days 44.8% 13.8% 26.6%
Nationals Road 30.3% 14.4% 11.7% LH 31.5% 19.1% 9.9% L7Days 30.0% 15.2% 10.6%
Dodgers Road 33.0% 9.5% 16.9% RH 35.4% 14.1% 20.8% L7Days 34.4% 19.6% 18.8%
Pirates Home 30.5% 10.1% 9.2% RH 29.9% 9.7% 8.1% L7Days 30.2% 12.7% 5.7%
Cardinals Home 30.2% 10.4% 10.7% LH 33.7% 6.4% 18.1% L7Days 30.4% 11.8% 13.6%
Braves Road 31.2% 11.3% 12.8% RH 31.1% 10.7% 13.2% L7Days 32.0% 5.6% 16.0%
Brewers Road 29.6% 17.8% 10.7% RH 33.8% 18.4% 14.6% L7Days 34.8% 10.9% 13.1%
Rockies Home 30.9% 15.9% 11.8% RH 30.5% 13.1% 10.4% L7Days 27.0% 15.0% 5.0%
Giants Home 24.1% 8.3% 2.0% RH 29.3% 10.0% 7.8% L7Days 35.4% 11.9% 12.4%
Diamondbacks Road 29.0% 14.0% 9.5% RH 37.2% 17.0% 21.3% L7Days 30.4% 15.5% 10.5%
Mariners Road 30.6% 10.0% 12.4% RH 30.3% 11.6% 11.9% L7Days 37.5% 7.4% 19.1%

K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Pitcher Team K% Season SwStr% Season K%/SwStr% K% L30 Days SwStr% L30 Days K%/SwStr%
Brad Peacock HOU 36.6% 15.2% 2.41 31.9% 13.3% 2.40
Carlos Carrasco CLE 26.0% 11.7% 2.22 25.2% 11.8% 2.14
Daniel Mengden OAK
Daniel Norris DET 19.3% 8.7% 2.22 22.7% 8.3% 2.73
David Holmberg CHW 17.1% 4.4% 3.89 17.1% 4.4% 3.89
David Price BOS
Dylan Bundy BAL 17.9% 9.8% 1.83 17.0% 8.7% 1.95
Edinson Volquez MIA 20.6% 8.9% 2.31 20.2% 9.1% 2.22
Erasmo Ramirez TAM 18.5% 9.2% 2.01 17.4% 9.2% 1.89
Ervin Santana MIN 19.1% 8.8% 2.17 17.3% 9.3% 1.86
Jarred Cosart SDG 11.1% 7.6% 1.46 11.1% 6.9% 1.61
Jason Hammel KAN 17.4% 8.9% 1.96 18.5% 9.3% 1.99
Jeremy Hellickson PHI 9.7% 7.2% 1.35 9.7% 6.4% 1.52
Jordan Montgomery NYY 22.5% 12.7% 1.77 22.3% 11.9% 1.87
Julio Teheran ATL 17.1% 8.6% 1.99 16.7% 9.5% 1.76
Kyle Hendricks CHC 20.1% 7.9% 2.54 22.1% 9.2% 2.40
Lisalverto Bonilla CIN 15.5% 12.7% 1.22 12.4% 11.7% 1.06
Marcus Stroman TOR 19.7% 9.1% 2.16 22.9% 10.0% 2.29
Martin Perez TEX 16.0% 6.4% 2.50 15.7% 5.9% 2.66
Matt Garza MIL 19.3% 9.6% 2.01 19.2% 10.3% 1.86
Matt Moore SFO 18.7% 8.5% 2.20 18.5% 8.1% 2.28
Mike Leake STL 17.7% 8.6% 2.06 16.4% 9.6% 1.71
Randall Delgado ARI 21.1% 10.4% 2.03 28.2% 15.0% 1.88
Rich Hill LOS 22.7% 7.9% 2.87 23.8% 7.9% 3.01
Ricky Nolasco ANA 21.0% 10.9% 1.93 23.8% 12.0% 1.98
Robert Gsellman NYM 15.8% 6.9% 2.29 10.5% 6.6% 1.59
Sam Gaviglio SEA 13.0% 5.6% 2.32 13.0% 5.6% 2.32
Tanner Roark WAS 20.2% 8.9% 2.27 23.6% 10.0% 2.36
Trevor Williams PIT 16.2% 8.1% 2.00 13.4% 6.7% 2.00
Tyler Chatwood COL 20.0% 9.5% 2.11 23.1% 10.4% 2.22


There is just one qualified outlier today and his SwStr% is too low to make much out of, but it’s also a bit concerning that Rich Hill has nearly the same SwStr% through four starts and hasn’t been above average once.

ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Pitcher Team Season
ERA
Season
SIERA
DIFF Season
xFIP
DIFF Season
FIP
DIFF Season
DRA
DIFF ERA
L30
SIERA
L30
DIFF xFIP
L30
DIFF FIP
L30
DIFF
Brad Peacock HOU 0.87 3.15 2.28 3.23 2.36 1.99 1.12 4.68 3.81 1.64 3.96 2.32 3.55 1.91 2.46 0.82
Carlos Carrasco CLE 2.93 3.42 0.49 3.32 0.39 3.28 0.35 2.22 -0.71 4.06 3.51 -0.55 3.52 -0.54 3.23 -0.83
Daniel Mengden OAK
Daniel Norris DET 4.38 4.64 0.26 4.61 0.23 3.8 -0.58 4.06 -0.32 4.13 4.16 0.03 4.25 0.12 3.82 -0.31
David Holmberg CHW 0.87 4.01 3.14 4.25 3.38 2.43 1.56 4.39 3.52 0.87 4.01 3.14 4.25 3.38 2.43 1.56
David Price BOS
Dylan Bundy BAL 2.92 4.67 1.75 4.65 1.73 3.92 1 4.88 1.96 4.22 5.05 0.83 5.18 0.96 4.91 0.69
Edinson Volquez MIA 4.82 4.99 0.17 4.62 -0.2 4.83 0.01 4.26 -0.56 5.24 5.16 -0.08 4.72 -0.52 5.25 0.01
Erasmo Ramirez TAM 3 3.67 0.67 3.78 0.78 3.56 0.56 4.25 1.25 3.63 4.14 0.51 4.29 0.66 3.07 -0.56
Ervin Santana MIN 1.8 4.78 2.98 4.71 2.91 4.08 2.28 2.81 1.01 2.83 5.28 2.45 5.28 2.45 5.04 2.21
Jarred Cosart SDG 4.5 6.14 1.64 5.54 1.04 4.26 -0.24 6.03 1.53 5.87 5.93 0.06 5.43 -0.44 4.31 -1.56
Jason Hammel KAN 5.98 4.85 -1.13 5.28 -0.7 4.74 -1.24 6.59 0.61 6.43 4.52 -1.91 4.93 -1.5 5.62 -0.81
Jeremy Hellickson PHI 4.28 5.59 1.31 5.58 1.3 5.46 1.18 6.08 1.80 7.3 5.86 -1.44 5.88 -1.42 7.67 0.37
Jordan Montgomery NYY 4.3 4.32 0.02 4.64 0.34 3.79 -0.51 3.45 -0.85 4.6 4.45 -0.15 4.78 0.18 3.72 -0.88
Julio Teheran ATL 4.88 5.08 0.2 5.32 0.44 5.12 0.24 5.67 0.79 6.58 4.91 -1.67 5.3 -1.28 6.24 -0.34
Kyle Hendricks CHC 3.25 4.2 0.95 3.95 0.7 4.19 0.94 5.38 2.13 2.35 3.79 1.44 3.51 1.16 3.5 1.15
Lisalverto Bonilla CIN 6.17 5.15 -1.02 5.14 -1.03 6.09 -0.08 5.87 -0.30 5.89 5.45 -0.44 5.16 -0.73 6.23 0.34
Marcus Stroman TOR 3.3 3.65 0.35 3.43 0.13 3.58 0.28 4.04 0.74 3.48 3.68 0.2 3.46 -0.02 4.23 0.75
Martin Perez TEX 3.77 4.81 1.04 4.4 0.63 3.72 -0.05 4.33 0.56 3.73 4.42 0.69 4.12 0.39 3.26 -0.47
Matt Garza MIL 3.6 3.99 0.39 3.88 0.28 4.21 0.61 4.45 0.85 3.77 3.81 0.04 3.63 -0.14 3.91 0.14
Matt Moore SFO 5.28 4.68 -0.6 4.9 -0.38 4.9 -0.38 8.06 2.78 5.79 5.17 -0.62 5.51 -0.28 4.87 -0.92
Mike Leake STL 1.91 3.72 1.81 3.44 1.53 2.98 1.07 3.41 1.50 2.38 3.97 1.59 3.6 1.22 3.77 1.39
Randall Delgado ARI 3.82 3.41 -0.41 3.67 -0.15 3.95 0.13 4.05 0.23 0.98 2.8 1.82 3.07 2.09 2.19 1.21
Rich Hill LOS 4.76 5.16 0.4 5.11 0.35 5.6 0.84 8.39 3.63 6 5.17 -0.83 5.35 -0.65 4.9 -1.1
Ricky Nolasco ANA 4.37 4.18 -0.19 4.41 0.04 5.68 1.31 6.09 1.72 4.6 4.11 -0.49 4.3 -0.3 6.08 1.48
Robert Gsellman NYM 6.45 4.25 -2.2 4.22 -2.23 4.26 -2.19 6.92 0.47 6.65 4.86 -1.79 4.95 -1.7 4.79 -1.86
Sam Gaviglio SEA 1.38 4.87 3.49 4.83 3.45 4.85 3.47 7.32 5.94 1.38 4.87 3.49 4.83 3.45 4.85 3.47
Tanner Roark WAS 4.32 4.23 -0.09 4 -0.32 3.81 -0.51 3.65 -0.67 5.02 4.06 -0.96 3.73 -1.29 4.05 -0.97
Trevor Williams PIT 5.93 4.62 -1.31 4.83 -1.1 4.89 -1.04 4.44 -1.49 6.33 4.94 -1.39 4.98 -1.35 5.49 -0.84
Tyler Chatwood COL 4.5 4.53 0.03 3.89 -0.61 4.87 0.37 3.28 -1.22 4.08 4.87 0.79 3.87 -0.21 4.12 0.04


Kyle Hendricks had the virtue of exceptional contact management with an historically strong defense behind him last year. This year, he has neither of those things. He replaces those with nice LD and pop-up rates despite the higher rate of hard contact. His Statcast numbers tell a better story (84.3 mph aEV, 2.8% Barrels/PA), but circumstances this year make us left comfortable with a BABIP nearly 50 points below their defense and an 80% strand rate.

Mike Leake is still in line for a major ERA adjustment (.236 BABIP, 85.6 LOB%, 8.5 HR/FB), but still may be having the best year of his career.

BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Pitcher Team Team BABIP Pitcher BABIP Diff GB% Pitcher LD% Pitcher IFFB% Pitcher Zcontact Exit
Velocity
Barrels
BBE
Barrels
PA
BBE
Brad Peacock HOU 0.280 0.205 -0.075 51.3% 0.103 20.0% 71.4% 84.9 2.60% 1.20% 39
Carlos Carrasco CLE 0.300 0.241 -0.059 46.2% 0.214 8.5% 88.9% 86.1 10.20% 6.70% 147
Daniel Mengden OAK 0.284
Daniel Norris DET 0.303 0.342 0.039 43.2% 0.219 5.6% 89.2% 88.4 7.00% 4.80% 158
David Holmberg CHW 0.266 0.111 -0.155 48.1% 0.111 36.4% 93.9%
David Price BOS 0.308
Dylan Bundy BAL 0.307 0.261 -0.046 32.1% 0.246 16.0% 87.0% 87.1 7.90% 5.80% 191
Edinson Volquez MIA 0.280 0.333 0.053 43.9% 0.258 5.0% 86.8% 87.8 6.70% 4.30% 135
Erasmo Ramirez TAM 0.272 0.220 -0.052 53.9% 0.118 0.0% 84.0% 86.7 8.70% 6.70% 104
Ervin Santana MIN 0.265 0.136 -0.129 41.7% 0.144 13.9% 90.0% 84.1 3.30% 2.30% 183
Jarred Cosart SDG 0.302 0.327 0.025 51.0% 0.255 16.7% 88.8% 87.9 3.80% 2.80% 52
Jason Hammel KAN 0.301 0.349 0.048 34.8% 0.222 8.8% 88.5% 88.7 7.50% 5.50% 159
Jeremy Hellickson PHI 0.291 0.222 -0.069 34.2% 0.223 12.5% 87.2% 85.9 7.90% 6.60% 190
Jordan Montgomery NYY 0.281 0.274 -0.007 35.9% 0.164 8.2% 84.1% 87.1 7.00% 4.70% 129
Julio Teheran ATL 0.283 0.283 0 34.5% 0.216 6.7% 87.9% 85.1 7.40% 5.30% 175
Kyle Hendricks CHC 0.294 0.248 -0.046 50.3% 0.184 13.0% 88.6% 84.3 3.90% 2.80% 152
Lisalverto Bonilla CIN 0.269 0.261 -0.008 41.2% 0.221 8.0% 81.4% 83.5 8.10% 5.80% 74
Marcus Stroman TOR 0.303 0.341 0.038 61.0% 0.176 5.0% 89.9% 87.7 6.90% 5.00% 188
Martin Perez TEX 0.284 0.333 0.049 45.4% 0.257 11.3% 91.4% 86.9 5.30% 4.00% 187
Matt Garza MIL 0.313 0.277 -0.036 42.9% 0.2 10.3% 87.1% 88.1 8.40% 6.40% 107
Matt Moore SFO 0.303 0.311 0.008 38.4% 0.205 5.3% 88.4% 90 11.20% 8.00% 187
Mike Leake STL 0.288 0.236 -0.052 54.3% 0.201 2.1% 89.1% 87.4 4.30% 3.40% 186
Randall Delgado ARI 0.286 0.267 -0.019 48.4% 0.161 9.1% 87.0% 86.4 10.50% 7.80% 95
Rich Hill LOS 0.292 0.333 0.041 40.0% 0.15 5.6% 81.0% 82.9 8.90% 5.30% 45
Ricky Nolasco ANA 0.281 0.269 -0.012 35.1% 0.187 7.6% 84.8% 89.4 12.00% 8.60% 175
Robert Gsellman NYM 0.320 0.355 0.035 54.5% 0.214 10.8% 88.8% 86.6 4.50% 3.30% 157
Sam Gaviglio SEA 0.288 0.220 -0.068 41.5% 0.22 6.7% 94.7% 87.5 2.30% 1.90% 43
Tanner Roark WAS 0.297 0.298 0.001 47.6% 0.214 9.6% 85.7% 85.8 5.20% 3.60% 174
Trevor Williams PIT 0.311 0.289 -0.022 44.1% 0.196 16.2% 89.5% 86.1 4.90% 3.70% 102
Tyler Chatwood COL 0.281 0.256 -0.025 56.8% 0.222 2.9% 89.9% 85.2 4.80% 3.30% 165


Carlos Carrasco has a pretty standard batted ball profile, which is pretty standard for him as well. The low BABIP doesn’t really make a lot of sense. He’s already seen some regression as he’s at exactly .300 in May. The jump in ERA is not solely due to this adjustment, as has already been discussed.

Daniel Norris is allowing a ton of hard contact that doesn’t necessarily show in his profile, but since these balls aren’t leaving the yard (7.4 HR/FB), they have to be landing somewhere.

Marcus Stroman generally runs a high BABIP, even with low line drive rates. He generates few popups. That said, his career average is closer to his team’s allowed rate this year. Somehow, he’s stranded 80.4% of runners to balance out his ERA with estimators this year, so there may not be much of a chance when/if the BABIP drops.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Article Image

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

The order of everyone below Carrasco matters very little today. I’ve been shuffling guys in and out of tiers two through four throughout this writing and stuff like weather and lineups could influence them even further throughout the day.

For example, Mike Leake may just be a tier two pitcher because I realized I didn’t have on there. Separation is really very narrow today and that might even include Carrasco, who’s more of a third tier guy for me, followed by all fourth tier guys on a more normal day. This is just really a lot of words to convey that I’m less comfortable than normal in these arbitrary rankings today.

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Value Tier One

Carlos Carrasco (1) is in a bit of a rut, struggling to throw strikes and get ahead, while not facing an easy opponent tonight, but he’s still missing bats and the best bet for strikeouts tonight. We’ll just have to hope he’s resolved his issues, but he also may be a pitcher players could consider fading if ownership rates look like they’re going to be too high. Oakland has a 119 sOPS+ against power pitchers (third best).

Value Tier Two

Mike Leake is not facing an easy lineup by any stretch, but he’s at home in a somewhat favorable venue against a team that has struggled on the road and is having a strong season even if the peripherals are nowhere near the ERA. He’s gone at least six innings in every start and at least seven in five of nine. If you can’t have strikeouts, you might want a guy who’s more likely to go deep into the game.

Value Tier Three

Erasmo Ramirez is a cheap arm that could be useful enough in an SP2 type role. Workload is a concern, but if he hits his normal ground ball and strikeout rates, he could pay off that price in five innings. We are concerned about the amount of hard contact he has given up in this park, but don’t maybe today’s the day you pay up for offense.

Daniel Norris has his problems, but also a nearly league average strikeout rate and is facing the worst offense in the league vs LHP. Still, $8.5K on DraftKings maybe drops him down a tier (and off wish list altogether on a better day).

Kyle Hendricks is in a great spot in San Diego today. Regression is not as much of concern in for this outing, but he does cost more than $9K.

Tanner Roark has actually struggled more by traditional methods over the last month even with some of the best peripherals of his career. While I don’t generally endorse paying more than $8K for a pure contact manager, the increased strikeout rate over the last month combined with strong matchup and environment may be worth it when considering the lack of strength on today’s board.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Jordan Montgomery actually has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (22.5%) for those with more than 20 innings of a few starts. While Baltimre is never a comfortable place to pitch, he has some things going for him or at least against the Orioles. They’ve been a cold offense that struggles against both fly ball pitchers and lefties.

Marcus Stroman generally keeps the ball on the ground and has increased his strikeout rate, but he doesn’t necessarily stifle contact. He will allow a few HRs and is expensive against a surprisingly good offense.

Daniel Mengden returns to the majors in a difficult spot and may have a bit of line drive problem, even if it doesn’t manifest itself in a high contact rate. The strong peripherals in the minors and above average strikeout rate in the majors last year may be enough to make him worth a flyer as an SP2 on DraftKings for barely more than the minimum.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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About the Author

MTro86
Matt Trollo (MTro86)

Matt has written for ReupSports in the past where he developed his unique pitching charts. He probably watches and reads more about baseball than any normal human being would find enjoyable, accumulating an incredible wealth of mostly useless knowledge, while he patiently waits for his jedi powers to manifest. In addition to writing the Advanced Pitching Charts column for RotoGrinders, MTro86 also heads up the premium MLB News Alerts during baseball season.