Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, May 29th
Due to the special circumstances, we’re going to cover all 15 games including afternoon games again. This is not a very pitcher friendly slate. It doesn’t necessarily lack depth in usable arms, but is wanting for upside. Only one pitcher with more than 20 innings and two starts exceeds a 22.5 K% and he’s had his own recent issues. In fact, it’s difficult to project hardly anyone for a much above average or high point per dollar performance tonight.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brad Peacock | HOU | -3.5 | 3.93 | 4.83 | 44.4% | 1.04 | 5.33 | 2.94 | MIN | 101 | 111 | 112 |
Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -8.8 | 3.15 | 6.13 | 49.6% | 1.09 | 3.56 | 4.63 | OAK | 85 | 106 | 111 |
Daniel Mengden | OAK | -7.8 | 4.5 | 5.14 | 39.5% | 1.09 | 4.6 | CLE | 109 | 104 | 122 | |
Daniel Norris | DET | 4.3 | 4.19 | 5.14 | 41.5% | 1.06 | 4.14 | 3.66 | KAN | 79 | 65 | 76 |
David Holmberg | CHW | -2.7 | 5.47 | 4.68 | 41.9% | 0.98 | 4.13 | 4.35 | BOS | 111 | 98 | 111 |
David Price | BOS | 0.4 | 3.37 | 6.72 | 43.4% | 0.98 | 3.84 | CHW | 106 | 132 | 114 | |
Dylan Bundy | BAL | -3.4 | 4.38 | 5.67 | 34.5% | 1.02 | 4.41 | 5.27 | NYY | 106 | 120 | 84 |
Edinson Volquez | MIA | 4.8 | 4.59 | 5.66 | 48.5% | 0.94 | 4.4 | 5.3 | PHI | 79 | 89 | 59 |
Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | -0.1 | 3.89 | 5.77 | 49.8% | 1.11 | 4.35 | 3.6 | TEX | 102 | 97 | 76 |
Ervin Santana | MIN | 11 | 4.42 | 6.3 | 41.9% | 1.04 | 4.37 | 5.48 | HOU | 116 | 121 | 130 |
Jarred Cosart | SDG | -9.1 | 5.39 | 4.27 | 58.4% | 0.91 | 4.6 | 5.93 | CHC | 85 | 86 | 86 |
Jason Hammel | KAN | 8.5 | 4.14 | 5.3 | 39.2% | 1.06 | 4.23 | 5.11 | DET | 85 | 96 | 75 |
Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 11.1 | 4.29 | 5.65 | 39.7% | 0.94 | 4.74 | 6.12 | MIA | 89 | 89 | 132 |
Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0 | 4.32 | 5.75 | 35.9% | 1.02 | 4.92 | 4.1 | BAL | 90 | 97 | 60 |
Julio Teheran | ATL | 5.4 | 4.19 | 6.17 | 38.6% | 0.91 | 4.55 | 4.45 | ANA | 111 | 92 | 86 |
Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.4 | 3.6 | 5.94 | 49.8% | 0.91 | 4.1 | 4.12 | SDG | 73 | 81 | 73 |
Lisalverto Bonilla | CIN | 20.7 | 5.15 | 6.03 | 41.2% | 1.03 | 4.93 | 6.11 | TOR | 88 | 90 | 114 |
Marcus Stroman | TOR | -2.4 | 3.6 | 6.37 | 60.6% | 1.03 | 3.44 | 3.38 | CIN | 101 | 103 | 107 |
Martin Perez | TEX | 0.7 | 4.83 | 5.86 | 53.5% | 1.11 | 4.54 | 3.44 | TAM | 102 | 90 | 99 |
Matt Garza | MIL | -5.8 | 4.57 | 5.58 | 49.1% | 0.91 | 4.65 | 4.22 | NYM | 84 | 100 | 131 |
Matt Moore | SFO | 2.1 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 38.5% | 0.93 | 4.29 | 5.22 | WAS | 102 | 121 | 113 |
Mike Leake | STL | -10.2 | 3.9 | 6.21 | 53.0% | 0.98 | 3.49 | 3.07 | LOS | 92 | 112 | 82 |
Randall Delgado | ARI | -5 | 3.98 | 3.05 | 42.0% | 0.97 | 5.09 | 3.56 | PIT | 93 | 87 | 118 |
Rich Hill | LOS | -1.3 | 3.31 | 5.58 | 45.2% | 0.98 | 3.02 | 5.17 | STL | 98 | 81 | 67 |
Ricky Nolasco | ANA | -4.1 | 4.33 | 5.89 | 0.411 | 0.91 | 4.4 | 4.75 | ATL | 92 | 94 | 100 |
Robert Gsellman | NYM | -4.1 | 4.01 | 5.41 | 0.544 | 0.91 | 3.39 | 4.34 | MIL | 99 | 97 | 70 |
Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 5.3 | 4.87 | 5.5 | 0.415 | 1.39 | 4.86 | 5.86 | COL | 77 | 80 | 94 |
Tanner Roark | WAS | -6 | 4.23 | 6.04 | 0.479 | 0.93 | 4.33 | 4.04 | SFO | 73 | 74 | 73 |
Trevor Williams | PIT | -5.8 | 4.53 | 4.44 | 0.445 | 0.97 | 5.34 | 4.26 | ARI | 74 | 108 | 86 |
Tyler Chatwood | COL | 2.6 | 4.59 | 5.89 | 0.571 | 1.39 | 4.23 | 5.07 | SEA | 91 | 109 | 77 |
Carlos Carrasco has allowed nine runs in his last 10 innings, but the most pertinent information is that he’s walked seven of 49 batters with a 46.4 Hard% and now has allowed Barrels on 10.2% of batted balls, though his hard hit rate remains just below 30%. The good news is that he’s retained a double digit SwStr% in six straight starts now. While he threw 48.1% of pitches in the strike zone, it’s been his failure to throw strike one that’s been an issue recently, as he’s now gone four straight starts with an F-Strike rate below 53%. For the year he’s at a much more efficient 60.5%. Oakland comes to down with some pop (16.0 HR/FB vs RHP). The offense has not really been the problem for them this year.
Daniel Mengden had nearly league average peripherals last year, but though he didn’t suffer from hard contact at a particularly high rate (29.5%), he did generate a 24.1 LD%, which led to a .344 BABIP. He’s experienced similar issues through four AAA starts this season (26.4 LD%), but somehow managed a .221 BABIP. He’s put up a K-BB between 17% and 19% at every level of the minors since being traded to the A’s in 2015. Here is some talent there if he can improve his major league walk rate from last season (9.9%). He makes his return to the majors in a difficult spot in Cleveland.
Daniel Norris has a 19.3 K%. He has a walk issue (10.1%) and a major issue with hard contact (43%). It hasn’t shown up in his LD rate or HR/FB, but he does have a .342 BABIP. He’s somehow avoiding those perfect launch angles often enough right now. He faces the second worst offense in baseball vs LHP (28.8 Hard%, 9.6 HR/FB).
Erasmo Ramirez finished last night’s marathon with Minnesota, but is still scheduled to start today. He threw 82 pitches in his last start, so perhaps the 12 yesterday keeps him around 80 again. He generally keeps the ball on the ground more than 50% of the time and misses enough bats to be useful, though he has struggled with hard contact this season (39.4%). The Rangers are a neutral offense in a tough park.
Jordan Montgomery is coming off maybe his best outing of the season (6.2 IP – 1 ER – 6 K – 22 BF) at home against Kansas City. His slider may be “better than Kershaw’s”:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-good-can-jordan-montgomery-be/ right now. The takeaway point is it’s been a quality pitch, even if most of the other stuff may be questionable. He’s been serviceable with a 13.1 K-BB% and doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact (25.6%), but pitches in another dangerous park for a fly ball pitcher (35.9 GB%). The good news is that Baltimore has been under-whelming at home this season and has struggled with LHP for a couple of years now (24.4 K% this season). Over the last week, they have a 28.3 K%, higher than their 26.8 Hard%. Against fly ball pitchers, they have a fifth worst 87 sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference).
Kyle Hendricks still has not regained any velocity (sitting at 86 mph this year!) and his 34.9 Hard% is nearly 10 points higher than last season, but he has been missing a few more bats and is up to a league average strikeout rate now. While concerns are more valid about his ERA gap this year, he’s got one of the best matchups on the board in Petco (Padres 25.2 K% and 5.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Marcus Stroman is a ground ball machine (61%), who has increased his strikeout rate to just above average with a strong month. His hard hit rate is around league average though and his BABIP tends to run high (.308 career). Cincinnati has been a quality offense this year and adds a 112 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers (eighth best).
Mike Leake has a league average SwStr% over the last month and the second highest strikeout rate of his career this season (17.7%). His 54.3 GB% is a career high, while a 4.2 BB% gives him a career high 13.4 K-BB% as well. While he’s been able to suppress power a bit more this year, St Louis is one of the more power suppressing parks early in the season with the cooler weather. However, three of his four HRs have come at home and he had a 13.5 HR/FB last year, his first as a Cardinal, matching his career rate. The Dodgers are a top offense against RHP, but do strike out more than average (22.6%) and have struggled on the road.
Tanner Roark has a 23.6 K% in May with a double digit SwStr% in three of five starts, yet his ERA is above five due to a .333 BABIP and 65% strand rate with four HRs. He has faced some poor offenses over that stretch (PHI twice, PIT), but the strikeout rate is a good sign none the less. While he hasn’t dominated contact as well as last year, that’s more because his weak contact rate is down (16.1%) rather than his hard contact being up (27.6%) with his 85.8 mph aEV still a favorable number. He might be in the top spot on the board in San Francisco tonight, at least from a run prevention standpoint. They don’t strike out a lot, but have just a 24.1 Hard% and 8.3 HR/FB at home.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Martin Perez (.333 – 76.5% – 7.5) has just a 6.8 K-BB%, but is above some pitchers you might expect here because the Rays have struggled against LHP (27.7 K%).
Ervin Santana (.136 – 91.5% – 8.9) has just a 5.0 K-BB% in May and has the worst matchup on the board outside Coors, hosting the Astros.
Dylan Bundy (.261 – 82.8% – 8.6) has allowed seven HRs over his last six starts with just a 6.9 K-BB% and 43.6 Hard%. His velocity has dropped nearly every time out.
Jeremy Hellickson (.222 – 75% – 12.5) has surpassed two strikeouts just twice this season with a high of five in 10 starts.
Jared Cosart (.327 – 65.5% – 0)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Brad Peacock has thrown 16.1 of his 20.2 innings out of the bullpen this year. He did strike out eight of the 16 Tigers he faced in his first start (70 pitches), bringing his season strikeout rate up to 36.6%, but that comes along with a 14.6 BB%. Five of six batted balls were on the ground against the Tigers, but three were hit hard. It’s difficult to project how he’ll continue to fare in the rotation. His 1.2% Barrels/PA leads all pitchers today, but the track record is not in his favor because he’s always had major issues throwing strikes consistently. Minnesota has a double digit walk rate.
Randal Delgado wasn’t bad in his first start, but it was against the White Sox and he only threw 61 pitches. He could be decent again for four or five innings against a poor Pittsburgh offense with a nice park upgrade, but they don’t strike out a lot. He’s not an insane SP2 choice on DraftKings for just $600 above the minimum.
Robert Gsellman was a bit more serviceable in his last start against San Diego and does have a 54.5 GB%,, which should mitigate some of Milwaukee’s power (18.4 HR/FB vs RHP), but while they do strike out 24% of the time against RHP, he hasn’t struck out more than three in over a month.
Rich Hill did not experience any blister issues after his most recent start. That’s about where the good news ends. He lasted four innings in his worst start since emerging towards the end of the 2015 season, walking seven and allowing five runs for the first time over that span. Workload was less of a concern when he was dominating, but he hasn’t thrown more than 82 pitches in any of his four starts. He is in a favorable spot against a St Louis offense that struggles with LHP (22.4 K%, 6.4 HR/FB).
Edinson Volquez has a league average strikeout rate and a quality matchup with the fledgling Phillies. Over his last three starts, his walk rate has dropped to a manageable 9.2%, but his strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff too (14.5% with a 7.7 SwStr%).
David Price faced a total of 32 batters in two rehab starts. Nine runs were scored (six earned) in 5.2 IP. He did strike out eight with just two walks.
Jason Hammel has six or seven strikeout in three of his last four starts, but none in the other one. While he did look decent last time out in Yankee Stadium of all places, he’s allowed seven HRs in his last five starts. He’s turned into more of an extreme fly ball pitcher this year (43%), which is fine in this park. The Tigers have been surprisingly below average against RHP (23.8 K%), but do have an impressive 10.3 BB% and 26.3 Hard% against them.
Julio Teheran gets to face the Angels without Mike Trout. I’m still confused why a pitcher with a 4.88 ERA and even higher estimators costs more than $8K with just a 17.1 K%.
Matt Garza hasn’t been bad at all, but there are a few not so obvious aspects working against him today. He’s allowed 37.4 Hard% overall, which his Statcast numbers support and his wOBA allowed to LHBs just requires a decimal move on spot to the right on his hard hit rate. The Mets have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last week (44.8 Hard%) and don’t strike out a lot.
Ricky Nolasco has nice peripherals. Look, he has a 14.4 K-BB%…nice peripherals. He has a 23.8 K% and 12.0 SwStr% over the last month. More nice stuff. He’s also allowed multiple HRs in seven of 10 starts. He has a 37.7 Hard%, his 89.4 mph aEV is second highest on the board, and his 12% Barrels/BBE is worst.
Lisalverto Bonilla had a SwStr rate above 14% in each of his first two starts and has an 83.5 mph aEV that’s second lowest on the board with just a 5.4 Hard-Soft%. He’s also allowed five HRs in 23.1 IP with a high barrel rate (8.1% per BBE) with just a 3.8 SwStr% in his last start. While Toronto has been a bit of disappointment, they now have all of their bats back and supposedly healthy.
David Holmberg has made eight relief appearances with a .111 BABIP and 17.1 K%.
Matt Moore
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 27.8% | 12.4% | Road | 19.6% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 13.8% |
Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.2% | 6.0% | Home | 22.9% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 14.3% |
Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.4% | 9.9% | Road | 19.6% | 9.1% | L14 Days | ||
Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.9% | 7.7% | Road | 20.9% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 7.7% |
David Holmberg | White Sox | L2 Years | 12.3% | 10.5% | Home | 15.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.4% | 5.3% | Road | 21.2% | 6.0% | L14 Days | ||
Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.5% | 8.3% | Home | 20.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 12.1% |
Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 17.7% | 9.3% | Home | 19.2% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 9.6% |
Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | L2 Years | 18.0% | 5.5% | Road | 14.4% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 3.9% |
Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.9% | Home | 19.2% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 10.0% |
Jarred Cosart | Padres | L2 Years | 14.6% | 14.6% | Home | 17.1% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 13.9% |
Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 21.4% | 7.6% | Home | 20.8% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 5.6% |
Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 18.5% | 6.0% | Road | 14.6% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 7.3% | 7.3% |
Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.5% | 9.4% | Road | 16.2% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 6.8% |
Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.7% | 7.3% | Road | 19.5% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 6.8% |
Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.3% | Road | 21.6% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 3.9% |
Lisalverto Bonilla | Reds | L2 Years | 15.5% | 10.7% | Road | 13.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 12.0% |
Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.3% | 6.5% | Home | 18.6% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 10.4% |
Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.2% | 8.5% | Home | 13.7% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 3.9% |
Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.5% | 7.1% | Road | 13.3% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 2.2% |
Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 19.8% | 8.6% | Home | 22.2% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 11.5% |
Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.7% | 4.6% | Home | 16.8% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 0.0% |
Randall Delgado | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.0% | 9.9% | Road | 19.6% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 5.7% |
Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.4% | 8.1% | Road | 32.1% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 16.7% |
Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.6% | 5.9% | Home | 17.7% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 9.6% |
Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.6% | Home | 20.1% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 5.7% |
Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 13.0% | 5.6% | Road | 14.7% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 6.5% | 6.5% |
Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.8% | Road | 17.9% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.3% |
Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.8% | 8.1% | Home | 14.3% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 4.4% |
Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.2% | 11.1% | Home | 17.0% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 18.4% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Twins | Home | 21.5% | 12.1% | RH | 21.7% | 10.9% | L7Days | 22.4% | 10.1% |
Athletics | Road | 23.7% | 9.3% | RH | 23.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 25.0% | 9.6% |
Indians | Home | 19.7% | 10.2% | RH | 21.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.2% | 9.4% |
Royals | Home | 19.6% | 7.5% | LH | 18.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.6% | 4.7% |
Red Sox | Road | 17.6% | 9.6% | LH | 14.2% | 10.7% | L7Days | 15.1% | 12.9% |
White Sox | Home | 20.9% | 8.5% | LH | 17.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.6% | 6.3% |
Yankees | Road | 21.8% | 9.4% | RH | 22.7% | 9.7% | L7Days | 23.4% | 10.2% |
Phillies | Road | 23.4% | 7.3% | RH | 21.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.4% |
Rangers | Home | 21.3% | 9.5% | RH | 22.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 28.2% | 4.5% |
Astros | Road | 19.3% | 8.9% | RH | 18.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 14.3% | 6.0% |
Cubs | Road | 22.9% | 9.9% | RH | 21.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 25.1% | 5.9% |
Tigers | Road | 25.8% | 10.1% | RH | 23.8% | 10.3% | L7Days | 28.9% | 10.7% |
Marlins | Home | 19.7% | 8.2% | RH | 20.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.1% |
Orioles | Home | 20.4% | 8.4% | LH | 24.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 28.3% | 6.6% |
Angels | Home | 18.0% | 8.5% | RH | 20.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.6% | 11.5% |
Padres | Home | 22.1% | 9.3% | RH | 25.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 29.6% | 8.0% |
Blue Jays | Home | 20.4% | 8.2% | RH | 20.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 16.8% | 7.6% |
Reds | Road | 18.3% | 7.5% | RH | 20.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.6% | 6.1% |
Rays | Road | 28.6% | 10.4% | LH | 27.7% | 11.1% | L7Days | 25.3% | 9.6% |
Mets | Home | 19.8% | 9.6% | RH | 19.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.0% |
Nationals | Road | 20.8% | 9.3% | LH | 21.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.2% |
Dodgers | Road | 22.4% | 10.3% | RH | 22.6% | 10.2% | L7Days | 31.2% | 9.6% |
Pirates | Home | 18.5% | 9.9% | RH | 18.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
Cardinals | Home | 21.5% | 10.1% | LH | 22.4% | 10.3% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.3% |
Braves | Road | 20.1% | 7.9% | RH | 20.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 16.2% | 7.0% |
Brewers | Road | 22.6% | 7.9% | RH | 24.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 26.0% | 8.8% |
Rockies | Home | 21.9% | 6.6% | RH | 22.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.2% |
Giants | Home | 18.6% | 6.8% | RH | 19.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 17.6% | 8.6% |
Diamondbacks | Road | 26.0% | 8.6% | RH | 23.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.9% | 6.5% |
Mariners | Road | 21.3% | 8.1% | RH | 20.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.2% | 4.7% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 28.2% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 2017 | 28.2% | 0.0% | -7.7% | Road | 29.0% | 12.5% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 0.0% | -6.6% |
Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 31.1% | 15.0% | 13.9% | 2017 | 29.3% | 12.8% | 11.6% | Home | 37.3% | 21.2% | 23.2% | L14 Days | 46.4% | 10.0% | 25.0% |
Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.5% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 2017 | Road | 27.7% | 10.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | ||||||
Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 34.5% | 11.1% | 18.9% | 2017 | 43.0% | 7.4% | 27.2% | Road | 35.7% | 4.7% | 22.0% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 16.7% | 18.2% |
David Holmberg | White Sox | L2 Years | 31.5% | 19.2% | 15.3% | 2017 | 22.2% | 0.0% | -14.8% | Home | 0.0% | 0.0% | -70.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | -6.3% |
David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.6% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 2017 | Road | 34.2% | 10.8% | 15.3% | L14 Days | ||||||
Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.8% | 11.6% | 6.4% | 2017 | 33.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% | Home | 27.3% | 11.1% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 41.5% | 16.7% | 29.3% |
Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.5% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 2017 | 37.8% | 15.0% | 22.2% | Home | 30.6% | 10.1% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 22.2% | 25.0% |
Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | L2 Years | 29.3% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 2017 | 39.4% | 11.4% | 22.1% | Road | 30.5% | 21.2% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 44.7% | 6.3% | 34.2% |
Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 27.9% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 2017 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 0.0% | Home | 26.9% | 10.7% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
Jarred Cosart | Padres | L2 Years | 28.5% | 13.0% | 6.0% | 2017 | 32.7% | 0.0% | 15.4% | Home | 28.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 0.0% | 19.3% |
Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 32.9% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 2017 | 32.7% | 10.3% | 15.7% | Home | 29.3% | 9.7% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 15.0% | 16.0% |
Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.6% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 2017 | 27.9% | 12.5% | 6.3% | Road | 30.6% | 12.9% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 30.5% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 25.6% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 2017 | 25.6% | 8.2% | 12.4% | Road | 20.8% | 5.6% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 13.3% | 29.1% |
Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 32.3% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 2017 | 30.9% | 12.0% | 6.3% | Road | 31.9% | 7.5% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 30.8% | -6.3% |
Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.4% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 2017 | 34.9% | 15.2% | 11.2% | Road | 27.3% | 11.6% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 14.3% | 4.9% |
Lisalverto Bonilla | Reds | L2 Years | 28.4% | 20.0% | 5.4% | 2017 | 28.4% | 20.0% | 5.4% | Road | 23.8% | 21.4% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 18.2% | 2.6% |
Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.4% | 16.0% | 10.8% | 2017 | 29.3% | 15.0% | 7.0% | Home | 31.5% | 11.8% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 40.0% | 0.0% |
Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.5% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 2017 | 34.8% | 7.5% | 19.8% | Home | 30.0% | 10.2% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 7.7% | 21.6% |
Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.6% | 12.6% | 17.3% | 2017 | 37.4% | 15.4% | 27.1% | Road | 31.1% | 8.1% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 17.6% | 21.6% |
Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 32.9% | 11.1% | 16.3% | 2017 | 40.6% | 13.2% | 25.6% | Home | 33.4% | 10.2% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 12.5% | 21.6% |
Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.1% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 2017 | 29.0% | 8.5% | 12.3% | Home | 25.7% | 15.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 40.9% | 10.0% | 27.3% |
Randall Delgado | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 32.3% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 2017 | 29.5% | 15.2% | 14.8% | Road | 31.0% | 7.7% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.0% | -8.0% |
Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2017 | 31.1% | 16.7% | 15.5% | Road | 26.3% | 5.1% | 1.9% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 10.0% | 8.4% |
Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 34.9% | 13.8% | 20.8% | 2017 | 37.7% | 20.3% | 23.4% | Home | 30.5% | 11.2% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 18.8% | 24.3% |
Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 30.6% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 2017 | 32.5% | 13.5% | 12.1% | Home | 28.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.6% | 13.3% | 18.6% | 2017 | 32.6% | 13.3% | 18.6% | Road | 29.6% | 18.2% | 22.2% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 7.7% | 18.0% |
Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 25.5% | 11.7% | 4.0% | 2017 | 27.6% | 11.5% | 11.5% | Road | 23.7% | 13.2% | 1.4% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 18.2% | 17.5% |
Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 26.5% | 18.0% | 2.0% | 2017 | 24.5% | 13.5% | -3.0% | Home | 31.8% | 4.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.4% | 15.5% | 9.4% | 2017 | 29.1% | 26.5% | 6.1% | Home | 33.8% | 22.5% | 19.3% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 0.0% | -14.2% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Twins | Home | 33.1% | 10.7% | 17.2% | RH | 33.8% | 13.5% | 18.9% | L7Days | 35.4% | 9.8% | 22.7% |
Athletics | Road | 35.6% | 11.1% | 17.2% | RH | 35.5% | 15.9% | 19.4% | L7Days | 30.0% | 15.2% | 13.3% |
Indians | Home | 30.9% | 13.0% | 14.7% | RH | 34.1% | 11.9% | 17.7% | L7Days | 30.5% | 15.3% | 16.1% |
Royals | Home | 30.3% | 9.3% | 10.7% | LH | 28.8% | 9.6% | 9.7% | L7Days | 31.0% | 15.5% | 13.6% |
Red Sox | Road | 34.4% | 11.0% | 16.3% | LH | 33.5% | 7.6% | 11.0% | L7Days | 32.9% | 6.5% | 17.7% |
White Sox | Home | 27.5% | 11.4% | 6.7% | LH | 30.9% | 13.0% | 12.8% | L7Days | 31.6% | 20.8% | 13.0% |
Yankees | Road | 29.6% | 12.4% | 11.1% | RH | 30.7% | 17.3% | 10.8% | L7Days | 30.8% | 12.1% | 7.5% |
Phillies | Road | 29.3% | 11.2% | 7.0% | RH | 29.1% | 11.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 30.1% | 12.7% | 9.8% |
Rangers | Home | 34.1% | 15.0% | 14.9% | RH | 33.1% | 14.4% | 12.7% | L7Days | 30.6% | 10.9% | 7.5% |
Astros | Road | 31.4% | 11.7% | 13.2% | RH | 31.2% | 14.6% | 13.1% | L7Days | 28.9% | 15.1% | 13.7% |
Cubs | Road | 28.6% | 12.5% | 8.7% | RH | 29.9% | 12.5% | 13.1% | L7Days | 33.3% | 21.3% | 14.2% |
Tigers | Road | 36.0% | 12.7% | 19.0% | RH | 41.9% | 12.2% | 26.3% | L7Days | 34.1% | 11.7% | 17.0% |
Marlins | Home | 33.1% | 15.1% | 12.2% | RH | 31.4% | 13.1% | 11.3% | L7Days | 32.2% | 17.1% | 10.5% |
Orioles | Home | 27.5% | 12.7% | 7.1% | LH | 37.4% | 12.1% | 19.1% | L7Days | 26.8% | 12.5% | 7.2% |
Angels | Home | 28.9% | 12.9% | 8.8% | RH | 30.7% | 12.7% | 10.4% | L7Days | 39.2% | 11.1% | 22.1% |
Padres | Home | 26.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | RH | 28.5% | 13.8% | 5.7% | L7Days | 28.6% | 8.2% | 2.9% |
Blue Jays | Home | 29.6% | 11.3% | 9.4% | RH | 30.7% | 14.1% | 10.0% | L7Days | 33.8% | 17.6% | 13.9% |
Reds | Road | 28.6% | 13.4% | 7.4% | RH | 28.7% | 13.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 28.8% | 16.9% | 7.9% |
Rays | Road | 37.0% | 17.5% | 19.2% | LH | 35.3% | 11.8% | 14.9% | L7Days | 41.8% | 15.5% | 30.3% |
Mets | Home | 32.6% | 8.8% | 12.6% | RH | 35.4% | 12.3% | 17.6% | L7Days | 44.8% | 13.8% | 26.6% |
Nationals | Road | 30.3% | 14.4% | 11.7% | LH | 31.5% | 19.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 30.0% | 15.2% | 10.6% |
Dodgers | Road | 33.0% | 9.5% | 16.9% | RH | 35.4% | 14.1% | 20.8% | L7Days | 34.4% | 19.6% | 18.8% |
Pirates | Home | 30.5% | 10.1% | 9.2% | RH | 29.9% | 9.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 30.2% | 12.7% | 5.7% |
Cardinals | Home | 30.2% | 10.4% | 10.7% | LH | 33.7% | 6.4% | 18.1% | L7Days | 30.4% | 11.8% | 13.6% |
Braves | Road | 31.2% | 11.3% | 12.8% | RH | 31.1% | 10.7% | 13.2% | L7Days | 32.0% | 5.6% | 16.0% |
Brewers | Road | 29.6% | 17.8% | 10.7% | RH | 33.8% | 18.4% | 14.6% | L7Days | 34.8% | 10.9% | 13.1% |
Rockies | Home | 30.9% | 15.9% | 11.8% | RH | 30.5% | 13.1% | 10.4% | L7Days | 27.0% | 15.0% | 5.0% |
Giants | Home | 24.1% | 8.3% | 2.0% | RH | 29.3% | 10.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 35.4% | 11.9% | 12.4% |
Diamondbacks | Road | 29.0% | 14.0% | 9.5% | RH | 37.2% | 17.0% | 21.3% | L7Days | 30.4% | 15.5% | 10.5% |
Mariners | Road | 30.6% | 10.0% | 12.4% | RH | 30.3% | 11.6% | 11.9% | L7Days | 37.5% | 7.4% | 19.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brad Peacock | HOU | 36.6% | 15.2% | 2.41 | 31.9% | 13.3% | 2.40 |
Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 26.0% | 11.7% | 2.22 | 25.2% | 11.8% | 2.14 |
Daniel Mengden | OAK | ||||||
Daniel Norris | DET | 19.3% | 8.7% | 2.22 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 2.73 |
David Holmberg | CHW | 17.1% | 4.4% | 3.89 | 17.1% | 4.4% | 3.89 |
David Price | BOS | ||||||
Dylan Bundy | BAL | 17.9% | 9.8% | 1.83 | 17.0% | 8.7% | 1.95 |
Edinson Volquez | MIA | 20.6% | 8.9% | 2.31 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 2.22 |
Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 18.5% | 9.2% | 2.01 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 1.89 |
Ervin Santana | MIN | 19.1% | 8.8% | 2.17 | 17.3% | 9.3% | 1.86 |
Jarred Cosart | SDG | 11.1% | 7.6% | 1.46 | 11.1% | 6.9% | 1.61 |
Jason Hammel | KAN | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.96 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 1.99 |
Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 9.7% | 7.2% | 1.35 | 9.7% | 6.4% | 1.52 |
Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 22.5% | 12.7% | 1.77 | 22.3% | 11.9% | 1.87 |
Julio Teheran | ATL | 17.1% | 8.6% | 1.99 | 16.7% | 9.5% | 1.76 |
Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 20.1% | 7.9% | 2.54 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 2.40 |
Lisalverto Bonilla | CIN | 15.5% | 12.7% | 1.22 | 12.4% | 11.7% | 1.06 |
Marcus Stroman | TOR | 19.7% | 9.1% | 2.16 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 2.29 |
Martin Perez | TEX | 16.0% | 6.4% | 2.50 | 15.7% | 5.9% | 2.66 |
Matt Garza | MIL | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.01 | 19.2% | 10.3% | 1.86 |
Matt Moore | SFO | 18.7% | 8.5% | 2.20 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 2.28 |
Mike Leake | STL | 17.7% | 8.6% | 2.06 | 16.4% | 9.6% | 1.71 |
Randall Delgado | ARI | 21.1% | 10.4% | 2.03 | 28.2% | 15.0% | 1.88 |
Rich Hill | LOS | 22.7% | 7.9% | 2.87 | 23.8% | 7.9% | 3.01 |
Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 21.0% | 10.9% | 1.93 | 23.8% | 12.0% | 1.98 |
Robert Gsellman | NYM | 15.8% | 6.9% | 2.29 | 10.5% | 6.6% | 1.59 |
Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 13.0% | 5.6% | 2.32 | 13.0% | 5.6% | 2.32 |
Tanner Roark | WAS | 20.2% | 8.9% | 2.27 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 2.36 |
Trevor Williams | PIT | 16.2% | 8.1% | 2.00 | 13.4% | 6.7% | 2.00 |
Tyler Chatwood | COL | 20.0% | 9.5% | 2.11 | 23.1% | 10.4% | 2.22 |
There is just one qualified outlier today and his SwStr% is too low to make much out of, but it’s also a bit concerning that Rich Hill has nearly the same SwStr% through four starts and hasn’t been above average once.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brad Peacock | HOU | 0.87 | 3.15 | 2.28 | 3.23 | 2.36 | 1.99 | 1.12 | 4.68 | 3.81 | 1.64 | 3.96 | 2.32 | 3.55 | 1.91 | 2.46 | 0.82 |
Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 2.93 | 3.42 | 0.49 | 3.32 | 0.39 | 3.28 | 0.35 | 2.22 | -0.71 | 4.06 | 3.51 | -0.55 | 3.52 | -0.54 | 3.23 | -0.83 |
Daniel Mengden | OAK | ||||||||||||||||
Daniel Norris | DET | 4.38 | 4.64 | 0.26 | 4.61 | 0.23 | 3.8 | -0.58 | 4.06 | -0.32 | 4.13 | 4.16 | 0.03 | 4.25 | 0.12 | 3.82 | -0.31 |
David Holmberg | CHW | 0.87 | 4.01 | 3.14 | 4.25 | 3.38 | 2.43 | 1.56 | 4.39 | 3.52 | 0.87 | 4.01 | 3.14 | 4.25 | 3.38 | 2.43 | 1.56 |
David Price | BOS | ||||||||||||||||
Dylan Bundy | BAL | 2.92 | 4.67 | 1.75 | 4.65 | 1.73 | 3.92 | 1 | 4.88 | 1.96 | 4.22 | 5.05 | 0.83 | 5.18 | 0.96 | 4.91 | 0.69 |
Edinson Volquez | MIA | 4.82 | 4.99 | 0.17 | 4.62 | -0.2 | 4.83 | 0.01 | 4.26 | -0.56 | 5.24 | 5.16 | -0.08 | 4.72 | -0.52 | 5.25 | 0.01 |
Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 3 | 3.67 | 0.67 | 3.78 | 0.78 | 3.56 | 0.56 | 4.25 | 1.25 | 3.63 | 4.14 | 0.51 | 4.29 | 0.66 | 3.07 | -0.56 |
Ervin Santana | MIN | 1.8 | 4.78 | 2.98 | 4.71 | 2.91 | 4.08 | 2.28 | 2.81 | 1.01 | 2.83 | 5.28 | 2.45 | 5.28 | 2.45 | 5.04 | 2.21 |
Jarred Cosart | SDG | 4.5 | 6.14 | 1.64 | 5.54 | 1.04 | 4.26 | -0.24 | 6.03 | 1.53 | 5.87 | 5.93 | 0.06 | 5.43 | -0.44 | 4.31 | -1.56 |
Jason Hammel | KAN | 5.98 | 4.85 | -1.13 | 5.28 | -0.7 | 4.74 | -1.24 | 6.59 | 0.61 | 6.43 | 4.52 | -1.91 | 4.93 | -1.5 | 5.62 | -0.81 |
Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4.28 | 5.59 | 1.31 | 5.58 | 1.3 | 5.46 | 1.18 | 6.08 | 1.80 | 7.3 | 5.86 | -1.44 | 5.88 | -1.42 | 7.67 | 0.37 |
Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 4.3 | 4.32 | 0.02 | 4.64 | 0.34 | 3.79 | -0.51 | 3.45 | -0.85 | 4.6 | 4.45 | -0.15 | 4.78 | 0.18 | 3.72 | -0.88 |
Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.88 | 5.08 | 0.2 | 5.32 | 0.44 | 5.12 | 0.24 | 5.67 | 0.79 | 6.58 | 4.91 | -1.67 | 5.3 | -1.28 | 6.24 | -0.34 |
Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.25 | 4.2 | 0.95 | 3.95 | 0.7 | 4.19 | 0.94 | 5.38 | 2.13 | 2.35 | 3.79 | 1.44 | 3.51 | 1.16 | 3.5 | 1.15 |
Lisalverto Bonilla | CIN | 6.17 | 5.15 | -1.02 | 5.14 | -1.03 | 6.09 | -0.08 | 5.87 | -0.30 | 5.89 | 5.45 | -0.44 | 5.16 | -0.73 | 6.23 | 0.34 |
Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.3 | 3.65 | 0.35 | 3.43 | 0.13 | 3.58 | 0.28 | 4.04 | 0.74 | 3.48 | 3.68 | 0.2 | 3.46 | -0.02 | 4.23 | 0.75 |
Martin Perez | TEX | 3.77 | 4.81 | 1.04 | 4.4 | 0.63 | 3.72 | -0.05 | 4.33 | 0.56 | 3.73 | 4.42 | 0.69 | 4.12 | 0.39 | 3.26 | -0.47 |
Matt Garza | MIL | 3.6 | 3.99 | 0.39 | 3.88 | 0.28 | 4.21 | 0.61 | 4.45 | 0.85 | 3.77 | 3.81 | 0.04 | 3.63 | -0.14 | 3.91 | 0.14 |
Matt Moore | SFO | 5.28 | 4.68 | -0.6 | 4.9 | -0.38 | 4.9 | -0.38 | 8.06 | 2.78 | 5.79 | 5.17 | -0.62 | 5.51 | -0.28 | 4.87 | -0.92 |
Mike Leake | STL | 1.91 | 3.72 | 1.81 | 3.44 | 1.53 | 2.98 | 1.07 | 3.41 | 1.50 | 2.38 | 3.97 | 1.59 | 3.6 | 1.22 | 3.77 | 1.39 |
Randall Delgado | ARI | 3.82 | 3.41 | -0.41 | 3.67 | -0.15 | 3.95 | 0.13 | 4.05 | 0.23 | 0.98 | 2.8 | 1.82 | 3.07 | 2.09 | 2.19 | 1.21 |
Rich Hill | LOS | 4.76 | 5.16 | 0.4 | 5.11 | 0.35 | 5.6 | 0.84 | 8.39 | 3.63 | 6 | 5.17 | -0.83 | 5.35 | -0.65 | 4.9 | -1.1 |
Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 4.37 | 4.18 | -0.19 | 4.41 | 0.04 | 5.68 | 1.31 | 6.09 | 1.72 | 4.6 | 4.11 | -0.49 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 6.08 | 1.48 |
Robert Gsellman | NYM | 6.45 | 4.25 | -2.2 | 4.22 | -2.23 | 4.26 | -2.19 | 6.92 | 0.47 | 6.65 | 4.86 | -1.79 | 4.95 | -1.7 | 4.79 | -1.86 |
Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 1.38 | 4.87 | 3.49 | 4.83 | 3.45 | 4.85 | 3.47 | 7.32 | 5.94 | 1.38 | 4.87 | 3.49 | 4.83 | 3.45 | 4.85 | 3.47 |
Tanner Roark | WAS | 4.32 | 4.23 | -0.09 | 4 | -0.32 | 3.81 | -0.51 | 3.65 | -0.67 | 5.02 | 4.06 | -0.96 | 3.73 | -1.29 | 4.05 | -0.97 |
Trevor Williams | PIT | 5.93 | 4.62 | -1.31 | 4.83 | -1.1 | 4.89 | -1.04 | 4.44 | -1.49 | 6.33 | 4.94 | -1.39 | 4.98 | -1.35 | 5.49 | -0.84 |
Tyler Chatwood | COL | 4.5 | 4.53 | 0.03 | 3.89 | -0.61 | 4.87 | 0.37 | 3.28 | -1.22 | 4.08 | 4.87 | 0.79 | 3.87 | -0.21 | 4.12 | 0.04 |
Kyle Hendricks had the virtue of exceptional contact management with an historically strong defense behind him last year. This year, he has neither of those things. He replaces those with nice LD and pop-up rates despite the higher rate of hard contact. His Statcast numbers tell a better story (84.3 mph aEV, 2.8% Barrels/PA), but circumstances this year make us left comfortable with a BABIP nearly 50 points below their defense and an 80% strand rate.
Mike Leake is still in line for a major ERA adjustment (.236 BABIP, 85.6 LOB%, 8.5 HR/FB), but still may be having the best year of his career.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brad Peacock | HOU | 0.280 | 0.205 | -0.075 | 51.3% | 0.103 | 20.0% | 71.4% | 84.9 | 2.60% | 1.20% | 39 |
Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.300 | 0.241 | -0.059 | 46.2% | 0.214 | 8.5% | 88.9% | 86.1 | 10.20% | 6.70% | 147 |
Daniel Mengden | OAK | 0.284 | ||||||||||
Daniel Norris | DET | 0.303 | 0.342 | 0.039 | 43.2% | 0.219 | 5.6% | 89.2% | 88.4 | 7.00% | 4.80% | 158 |
David Holmberg | CHW | 0.266 | 0.111 | -0.155 | 48.1% | 0.111 | 36.4% | 93.9% | ||||
David Price | BOS | 0.308 | ||||||||||
Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.307 | 0.261 | -0.046 | 32.1% | 0.246 | 16.0% | 87.0% | 87.1 | 7.90% | 5.80% | 191 |
Edinson Volquez | MIA | 0.280 | 0.333 | 0.053 | 43.9% | 0.258 | 5.0% | 86.8% | 87.8 | 6.70% | 4.30% | 135 |
Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.272 | 0.220 | -0.052 | 53.9% | 0.118 | 0.0% | 84.0% | 86.7 | 8.70% | 6.70% | 104 |
Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.265 | 0.136 | -0.129 | 41.7% | 0.144 | 13.9% | 90.0% | 84.1 | 3.30% | 2.30% | 183 |
Jarred Cosart | SDG | 0.302 | 0.327 | 0.025 | 51.0% | 0.255 | 16.7% | 88.8% | 87.9 | 3.80% | 2.80% | 52 |
Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.301 | 0.349 | 0.048 | 34.8% | 0.222 | 8.8% | 88.5% | 88.7 | 7.50% | 5.50% | 159 |
Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.291 | 0.222 | -0.069 | 34.2% | 0.223 | 12.5% | 87.2% | 85.9 | 7.90% | 6.60% | 190 |
Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.281 | 0.274 | -0.007 | 35.9% | 0.164 | 8.2% | 84.1% | 87.1 | 7.00% | 4.70% | 129 |
Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.283 | 0.283 | 0 | 34.5% | 0.216 | 6.7% | 87.9% | 85.1 | 7.40% | 5.30% | 175 |
Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.294 | 0.248 | -0.046 | 50.3% | 0.184 | 13.0% | 88.6% | 84.3 | 3.90% | 2.80% | 152 |
Lisalverto Bonilla | CIN | 0.269 | 0.261 | -0.008 | 41.2% | 0.221 | 8.0% | 81.4% | 83.5 | 8.10% | 5.80% | 74 |
Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.303 | 0.341 | 0.038 | 61.0% | 0.176 | 5.0% | 89.9% | 87.7 | 6.90% | 5.00% | 188 |
Martin Perez | TEX | 0.284 | 0.333 | 0.049 | 45.4% | 0.257 | 11.3% | 91.4% | 86.9 | 5.30% | 4.00% | 187 |
Matt Garza | MIL | 0.313 | 0.277 | -0.036 | 42.9% | 0.2 | 10.3% | 87.1% | 88.1 | 8.40% | 6.40% | 107 |
Matt Moore | SFO | 0.303 | 0.311 | 0.008 | 38.4% | 0.205 | 5.3% | 88.4% | 90 | 11.20% | 8.00% | 187 |
Mike Leake | STL | 0.288 | 0.236 | -0.052 | 54.3% | 0.201 | 2.1% | 89.1% | 87.4 | 4.30% | 3.40% | 186 |
Randall Delgado | ARI | 0.286 | 0.267 | -0.019 | 48.4% | 0.161 | 9.1% | 87.0% | 86.4 | 10.50% | 7.80% | 95 |
Rich Hill | LOS | 0.292 | 0.333 | 0.041 | 40.0% | 0.15 | 5.6% | 81.0% | 82.9 | 8.90% | 5.30% | 45 |
Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.281 | 0.269 | -0.012 | 35.1% | 0.187 | 7.6% | 84.8% | 89.4 | 12.00% | 8.60% | 175 |
Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.320 | 0.355 | 0.035 | 54.5% | 0.214 | 10.8% | 88.8% | 86.6 | 4.50% | 3.30% | 157 |
Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 0.288 | 0.220 | -0.068 | 41.5% | 0.22 | 6.7% | 94.7% | 87.5 | 2.30% | 1.90% | 43 |
Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.297 | 0.298 | 0.001 | 47.6% | 0.214 | 9.6% | 85.7% | 85.8 | 5.20% | 3.60% | 174 |
Trevor Williams | PIT | 0.311 | 0.289 | -0.022 | 44.1% | 0.196 | 16.2% | 89.5% | 86.1 | 4.90% | 3.70% | 102 |
Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.281 | 0.256 | -0.025 | 56.8% | 0.222 | 2.9% | 89.9% | 85.2 | 4.80% | 3.30% | 165 |
Carlos Carrasco has a pretty standard batted ball profile, which is pretty standard for him as well. The low BABIP doesn’t really make a lot of sense. He’s already seen some regression as he’s at exactly .300 in May. The jump in ERA is not solely due to this adjustment, as has already been discussed.
Daniel Norris is allowing a ton of hard contact that doesn’t necessarily show in his profile, but since these balls aren’t leaving the yard (7.4 HR/FB), they have to be landing somewhere.
Marcus Stroman generally runs a high BABIP, even with low line drive rates. He generates few popups. That said, his career average is closer to his team’s allowed rate this year. Somehow, he’s stranded 80.4% of runners to balance out his ERA with estimators this year, so there may not be much of a chance when/if the BABIP drops.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
The order of everyone below Carrasco matters very little today. I’ve been shuffling guys in and out of tiers two through four throughout this writing and stuff like weather and lineups could influence them even further throughout the day.
For example, Mike Leake may just be a tier two pitcher because I realized I didn’t have on there. Separation is really very narrow today and that might even include Carrasco, who’s more of a third tier guy for me, followed by all fourth tier guys on a more normal day. This is just really a lot of words to convey that I’m less comfortable than normal in these arbitrary rankings today.
Value Tier One
Carlos Carrasco (1) is in a bit of a rut, struggling to throw strikes and get ahead, while not facing an easy opponent tonight, but he’s still missing bats and the best bet for strikeouts tonight. We’ll just have to hope he’s resolved his issues, but he also may be a pitcher players could consider fading if ownership rates look like they’re going to be too high. Oakland has a 119 sOPS+ against power pitchers (third best).
Value Tier Two
Mike Leake is not facing an easy lineup by any stretch, but he’s at home in a somewhat favorable venue against a team that has struggled on the road and is having a strong season even if the peripherals are nowhere near the ERA. He’s gone at least six innings in every start and at least seven in five of nine. If you can’t have strikeouts, you might want a guy who’s more likely to go deep into the game.
Value Tier Three
Erasmo Ramirez is a cheap arm that could be useful enough in an SP2 type role. Workload is a concern, but if he hits his normal ground ball and strikeout rates, he could pay off that price in five innings. We are concerned about the amount of hard contact he has given up in this park, but don’t maybe today’s the day you pay up for offense.
Daniel Norris has his problems, but also a nearly league average strikeout rate and is facing the worst offense in the league vs LHP. Still, $8.5K on DraftKings maybe drops him down a tier (and off wish list altogether on a better day).
Kyle Hendricks is in a great spot in San Diego today. Regression is not as much of concern in for this outing, but he does cost more than $9K.
Tanner Roark has actually struggled more by traditional methods over the last month even with some of the best peripherals of his career. While I don’t generally endorse paying more than $8K for a pure contact manager, the increased strikeout rate over the last month combined with strong matchup and environment may be worth it when considering the lack of strength on today’s board.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jordan Montgomery actually has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (22.5%) for those with more than 20 innings of a few starts. While Baltimre is never a comfortable place to pitch, he has some things going for him or at least against the Orioles. They’ve been a cold offense that struggles against both fly ball pitchers and lefties.
Marcus Stroman generally keeps the ball on the ground and has increased his strikeout rate, but he doesn’t necessarily stifle contact. He will allow a few HRs and is expensive against a surprisingly good offense.
Daniel Mengden returns to the majors in a difficult spot and may have a bit of line drive problem, even if it doesn’t manifest itself in a high contact rate. The strong peripherals in the minors and above average strikeout rate in the majors last year may be enough to make him worth a flyer as an SP2 on DraftKings for barely more than the minimum.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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