Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, July 1st

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2017-07-02 02:21:54

The first day of the fourth month of the season brings with it some difficult decisions. There are 17 games today, 34 pitchers. First thought was to cover the seven game night slate and thus list the second game of the double-headers, but FanDuel took that decision away by only listing five games on their slate. So, pitchers are listed for the full day slate, which means Game One for both double-headers, though the late afternoon slate (six games) will be covered in the notes because that’s the largest one.

This means we’ll be omitting one pitcher making their debut in the second game of one of the twin bills, but that’s okay, we’re still listing each of the other three pitchers making their major league debuts today and covering two. That’s what all the empty space at the bottom of the charts is. Can’t say I ever remember four pitchers making their debuts on the same day before and just a little heads up: this will be the worse slate I have ever covered. None of these pitchers are even close to being usable on any other slate I’ve written about this year. Without knowing anything about them yet, I’d probably just blindly consider using the new guys ahead of everyone else. What it does make us do though, is potentially see things in recent performances that the overall numbers wouldn’t on a full slate. Things that could be useful on future slates if trends continue.

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Pitcher	Team	Team Def	SIERA L2Yrs	IP/GS L2Yrs	GB% L2Yrs	Park Run	Hm/Rd xFIP	SIERA L14	Opp	Opp Hm/Rd	Opp L/R wRC+	Opp L7 wRC+
Anibal Sanchez	DET	2.6	4.4	5.44	38.7%	0.98	4.42	4.35	CLE	104	104	100
Chad Kuhl	PIT	-6.8	4.64	4.83	43.1%	0.97	5.52	3.76	SFO	88	82	105
Chris Sale	BOS	2.7	3.01	6.97	40.7%	1.03	3.38	2.69	TOR	91	99	73
Cole Hamels	TEX	4.5	4	6.37	48.8%	0.98	3.95	6.8	CHW	98	124	82
Derek Holland	CHW	-0.3	4.85	5.57	39.1%	0.98	4.63	4.18	TEX	82	73	93
Dillon Overton	SDG	-9.1	5.27	4.03	30.4%	0.91	5.99		LOS	96	113	124
Dylan Bundy	BAL	-2.7	4.57	5.67	34.2%	1.02	4.75	5.41	TAM	100	115	93
Eddie Butler	CHC	4.3	5.01	4.97	45.9%	1.02	4.91	6.39	CIN	107	101	103
Francis Martes	HOU	-1.9	5.2	4.07	44.4%	0.94	5.2	6.24	NYY	105	121	101
Francisco Liriano	TOR	-2.3	4.3	5.41	49.5%	1.03	4.01	5.65	BOS	97	106	102
Gio Gonzalez	WAS	0	4.07	5.71	47.0%	0.98	4.38	4.26	STL	101	81	106
Jake Odorizzi	TAM	0.5	4.24	5.62	35.2%	1.02	4.76	5.45	BAL	93	93	74
Jeremy Hellickson	PHI	2.4	4.5	5.69	39.9%	0.91	4.79	3.58	NYM	91	104	124
Jordan Montgomery	NYY	5.8	4.18	5.8	43.0%	0.94	4.37	3.22	HOU	119	114	133
Jose Berrios	MIN	3.9	4.63	5.14	40.9%	1.06	5.24	3.28	KAN	80	83	95
Josh Tomlin	CLE	-4.5	4.11	5.93	41.7%	0.98	4.13	4.47	DET	116	97	105
Matt Moore	SFO	0.6	4.57	5.74	38.1%	0.97	5.06	4.38	PIT	92	84	80
Michael Wacha	STL	-7.8	4.29	5.53	46.3%	0.98	3.93	3.8	WAS	101	111	121
R.A. Dickey	ATL	-0.6	4.83	6.11	43.5%	0.93	5.03	3.73	OAK	112	103	109
Rich Hill	LOS	2	3.55	5.47	43.6%	0.91	3.57	3.87	SDG	87	72	101
Ricky Nolasco	ANA	-1.5	4.43	5.94	42.4%	0.91	4.45	5.22	SEA	100	110	114
Sam Gaviglio	SEA	7.9	4.91	5.39	52.2%	0.91	4.74	6.96	ANA	100	93	58
Tom Koehler	MIA	4.6	4.9	5.45	42.9%	1.02	4.88		MIL	95	98	112
Tyler Chatwood	COL	1.1	4.71	5.84	57.0%	1.13	4.33	7.83	ARI	112	105	90
Zach Davies	MIL	-3.4	4.36	5.64	0.48	1.02	4.02	5.37	MIA	95	91	56
Zack Greinke	ARI	-7.4	3.59	6.47	0.468	1.13	3.85	3.72	COL	82	78	39
Zack Wheeler	NYM	-1.5	4.6	5.08	0.452	0.91	4.23	6.51	PHI	71	81	58
Luke Farrell	KAN	7.8	0		0	1.06			MIN	87	97	43
Paul Blackburn	OAK	-14.2	0		0	0.93			ATL	91	90	31
Jackson Stephens	CIN	10.3	0		0	1.02			CHC	86	86	60

Chad Kuhl has not gone more than five innings in 12 starts, but he has struck out six in each of his last two starts, while walking just four of his last 68 batters and has an 11.5 SwStr% with estimators well below his ERA, even if those aren’t very good either. While the contact management seems about average overall, he pitches in a pitcher friendly park and stays away from barrels (5% per BBE). He’s in a favorable spot against an improving San Francisco offense that does not strike out much, but has little power (9.1 HR/FB vs RHP).

Jake Odorizzi has allowed at least three ERs in five straight starts and multiple HRs in three of those, finishing six innings just twice. Also for June, he had a below average 10.3 K-BB%, but that’s an All-Star on this slate. His Statcast rates are just average, but he has a 35.7 Hard%. Those HRs have to come from somewhere. Although it still may sound strange to say or hear, he’s in a favorable spot in Baltimore (16.5 K-BB% vs RHP).

Zach Davies threw seven shutout innings on four hits in his last start without striking out a single batter. Prior to that, he’d allowed 14 ERs in 15 IP with nine strikeouts. His 7.1 K-BB% is half of last year’s mark and that’s entirely where the issues lie because his contact management has actually improved slightly by 3.5 points in his GB rate and 3.2 points in his hard contact rate. He’s in a decent spot, even at home, against a Miami offense that will take care of the walk portion of the issue for him. They won’t accept many and have only shown league average power despite the perceived power in the middle of the lineup.

Zack Wheeler returns from a couple of weeks off with tendonitis. He was bombed for 15 ERs, allowing five HRs in 3.2 innings over his last two starts. Was the tendonitis the reason? He’s also likely to be on a pitch count after having not pitched in two weeks, though he does have the top matchup on the board for the entire day. The Phillies have below average power and strike out 24% of the time on the road and vs RHP.

Jackson Stephens was not even listed among Cincinnati prospects by Fangraphs this year. The 23 year-old did have a 14.1 K-BB% in a full season at AA last season, but has turned in just a 7.9% mark in four AAA starts this year. Projection systems don’t suggest much better at the major league level, though maybe not too much below a nearly league average pitcher. He’s in a decent spot against the Cubs and does get that major league debut unknown bonus.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)

Dylan Bundy (.264 – 79.8% – 11.3) is a fly ball generator with a lot of pop ups, so a lower BABIP is possible, though it would take more to be convinced. He does miss bats sufficiently and is facing a high strikeout offense (26% on the road, 24.6% vs RHP). However, it’s a high power offense as well (17.0 HR/FB on the road, 18.5 HR/FB vs RHP) in a power friendly park. In June, his strikeout rate increased, but so did his walk rate (11%).

Jeremy Hellickson (.249 – 74.5% – 12.6) has somehow turned a double digit SwStr% over the last month into just a 16.5 K%. Neither mark is even that impressive for the season. He has had a 13+ SwStr% in two straight starts with a season high seven strikeouts last time out, so there’s hope. He’s in a great park and hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact, but the Mets hit the ball fairly hard and don’t strike out all that much.

Eddie Butler (.259 – 74.8% – 6.5) has a 2.7 K-BB%.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

R.A. Dickey has six unearned runs, which explains a lot of the difference in his ERA and estimators. He actually had a pretty amazing 16.5 K-BB% in June with a -2.3 Hard-Soft%, something I’ve never seen a pitcher do with a 30% hard hit rate. He has managed contact well for the season with an 85 mph aEV, but how do you tell if improvement is real in a 42 year-old knuckleballer? It’s not like there are changes in his arsenal we can point to. He’s in an interesting situation against a good offense with power (21.3 HR/FB last seven days), but one that strikes out a lot (25% of the time at home and vs RHP) in a pitcher’s park.

Paul Blackburn was the haul for Danny Valencia last year. This year’s prospect rankings on Fangraphs suggested he may be a sixth starter, mentioning him in the “Others of Note” section. His 9.1 K-BB% at AAA this season does not do much to change that assessment, but he does keep the ball on the ground (55.3%) and has maybe the second best matchup on the entire day against the Braves in Oakland. After saying all that, you can’t use him because he’s not listed on either site.

Matt Moore has an 89.9 mph aEV with 44.3% of his contact above 95 mph.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Pitcher	Team	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%
Anibal Sanchez	Tigers	L2 Years	19.9%	8.1%	Home	23.1%	7.5%	L14 Days	20.0%	6.7%
Chad Kuhl	Pirates	L2 Years	18.3%	7.9%	Home	15.0%	11.4%	L14 Days	25.0%	6.3%
Chris Sale	Red Sox	L2 Years	29.2%	4.8%	Road	27.9%	5.2%	L14 Days	35.2%	5.6%
Cole Hamels	Rangers	L2 Years	22.1%	8.2%	Road	21.9%	9.6%	L14 Days	4.0%	16.0%
Derek Holland	White Sox	L2 Years	16.7%	8.1%	Home	18.3%	7.9%	L14 Days	22.0%	7.3%
Dillon Overton	Padres	L2 Years	12.1%	4.4%	Home	11.7%	4.5%	L14 Days
Dylan Bundy	Orioles	L2 Years	20.2%	8.6%	Home	19.5%	6.6%	L14 Days	20.4%	14.3%
Eddie Butler	Cubs	L2 Years	14.8%	9.1%	Road	15.0%	8.3%	L14 Days	8.2%	9.8%
Francis Martes	Astros	L2 Years	21.3%	14.7%	Home	23.1%	10.3%	L14 Days	19.4%	19.4%
Francisco Liriano	Blue Jays	L2 Years	23.1%	11.2%	Home	24.6%	11.1%	L14 Days	11.1%	6.7%
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	L2 Years	22.9%	8.8%	Road	19.6%	8.0%	L14 Days	28.6%	12.5%
Jake Odorizzi	Rays	L2 Years	21.5%	7.5%	Road	19.8%	7.3%	L14 Days	17.3%	7.7%
Jeremy Hellickson	Phillies	L2 Years	17.6%	6.2%	Road	15.2%	5.9%	L14 Days	23.4%	4.3%
Jordan Montgomery	Yankees	L2 Years	23.2%	7.9%	Road	20.2%	8.7%	L14 Days	26.0%	6.0%
Jose Berrios	Twins	L2 Years	21.0%	10.0%	Road	19.7%	10.7%	L14 Days	26.8%	5.4%
Josh Tomlin	Indians	L2 Years	17.8%	2.8%	Road	17.0%	2.6%	L14 Days	20.0%	6.0%
Matt Moore	Giants	L2 Years	19.7%	8.5%	Road	19.1%	10.1%	L14 Days	20.8%	7.6%
Michael Wacha	Cardinals	L2 Years	20.1%	8.4%	Home	20.3%	8.0%	L14 Days	17.8%	4.4%
R.A. Dickey	Braves	L2 Years	15.7%	7.6%	Road	15.9%	9.5%	L14 Days	23.5%	3.9%
Rich Hill	Dodgers	L2 Years	28.6%	8.8%	Road	30.0%	7.5%	L14 Days	30.0%	10.0%
Ricky Nolasco	Angels	L2 Years	18.4%	6.1%	Home	17.7%	5.2%	L14 Days	19.2%	13.5%
Sam Gaviglio	Mariners	L2 Years	15.1%	8.1%	Road	14.5%	5.3%	L14 Days	8.7%	15.2%
Tom Koehler	Marlins	L2 Years	18.2%	10.7%	Road	18.2%	11.1%	L14 Days
Tyler Chatwood	Rockies	L2 Years	18.3%	11.3%	Road	19.6%	11.7%	L14 Days	17.0%	25.5%
Zach Davies	Brewers	L2 Years	17.8%	6.8%	Home	19.9%	5.8%	L14 Days	7.7%	3.9%
Zack Greinke	Diamondbacks	L2 Years	23.7%	5.5%	Home	23.1%	6.6%	L14 Days	23.5%	5.9%
Zack Wheeler	Mets	L2 Years	20.9%	9.9%	Home	22.4%	11.5%	L14 Days	14.3%	0.0%
Luke Farrell	Royals	L2 Years	0.0%	0.0%	Home			L14 Days
Paul Blackburn	Athletics	L2 Years	0.0%	0.0%	Home			L14 Days
Jackson Stephens	Reds	L2 Years	0.0%	0.0%	Home			L14 Days

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Opponent	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%
Indians	Road	18.3%	9.6%	RH	19.9%	9.2%	L7Days	15.7%	9.6%
Giants	Road	18.9%	8.4%	RH	19.4%	7.6%	L7Days	21.5%	7.2%
Blue Jays	Home	20.2%	8.3%	LH	20.8%	10.5%	L7Days	21.8%	9.3%
White Sox	Home	21.7%	7.8%	LH	19.5%	7.6%	L7Days	24.6%	6.5%
Rangers	Road	27.5%	8.1%	LH	27.5%	8.3%	L7Days	32.7%	8.9%
Dodgers	Road	22.6%	10.8%	LH	20.8%	10.8%	L7Days	19.8%	13.8%
Rays	Road	26.0%	9.1%	RH	24.6%	9.1%	L7Days	22.4%	8.2%
Reds	Home	21.9%	8.7%	RH	20.9%	8.4%	L7Days	21.4%	7.1%
Yankees	Road	21.6%	9.7%	RH	22.0%	9.7%	L7Days	17.3%	13.1%
Red Sox	Road	19.0%	9.0%	LH	16.3%	10.0%	L7Days	18.1%	11.2%
Cardinals	Home	20.8%	9.9%	LH	21.4%	11.0%	L7Days	19.4%	12.0%
Orioles	Home	23.0%	7.0%	RH	23.1%	6.6%	L7Days	23.8%	6.6%
Mets	Home	19.5%	8.9%	RH	19.0%	9.4%	L7Days	17.1%	10.7%
Astros	Home	16.5%	7.6%	LH	17.1%	9.7%	L7Days	12.0%	8.1%
Royals	Home	19.4%	6.8%	RH	20.9%	6.4%	L7Days	17.9%	5.5%
Tigers	Home	19.9%	8.9%	RH	22.8%	9.5%	L7Days	19.3%	5.5%
Pirates	Home	18.5%	9.3%	LH	20.5%	10.5%	L7Days	15.8%	8.6%
Nationals	Road	19.9%	8.7%	RH	19.2%	9.4%	L7Days	18.6%	10.6%
Athletics	Home	24.6%	8.9%	RH	25.4%	9.1%	L7Days	30.5%	9.6%
Padres	Home	24.7%	8.9%	LH	25.4%	9.1%	L7Days	27.7%	11.2%
Mariners	Road	20.6%	7.5%	RH	21.3%	8.2%	L7Days	24.3%	7.9%
Angels	Home	18.7%	7.6%	RH	20.3%	8.3%	L7Days	24.4%	6.0%
Brewers	Home	26.4%	8.5%	RH	24.7%	8.7%	L7Days	25.9%	8.0%
Diamondbacks	Home	22.4%	9.0%	RH	22.5%	9.0%	L7Days	25.3%	8.3%
Marlins	Road	20.7%	6.0%	RH	20.4%	6.7%	L7Days	22.0%	5.9%
Rockies	Road	23.6%	7.9%	RH	22.0%	7.9%	L7Days	23.0%	9.5%
Phillies	Road	24.0%	7.2%	RH	23.8%	7.7%	L7Days	26.3%	9.4%
Twins	Road	22.1%	8.5%	RH	22.3%	9.5%	L7Days	27.2%	6.9%
Braves	Road	19.5%	7.4%	RH	19.5%	7.4%	L7Days	19.4%	5.0%
Cubs	Road	23.1%	9.9%	RH	22.6%	9.1%	L7Days	25.6%	8.7%

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Pitcher	Team	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%
Anibal Sanchez	Tigers	L2 Years	31.6%	16.6%	13.4%	2017	38.7%	21.7%	22.7%	Home	35.2%	15.3%	17.4%	L14 Days	19.4%	9.1%	-6.4%
Chad Kuhl	Pirates	L2 Years	32.9%	9.6%	15.3%	2017	32.7%	10.4%	17.2%	Home	33.8%	13.4%	19.7%	L14 Days	43.8%	25.0%	34.4%
Chris Sale	Red Sox	L2 Years	29.8%	12.1%	12.4%	2017	29.0%	8.8%	13.7%	Road	29.8%	5.6%	12.7%	L14 Days	34.4%	25.0%	18.8%
Cole Hamels	Rangers	L2 Years	31.1%	12.6%	11.9%	2017	35.0%	11.1%	20.8%	Road	30.3%	11.9%	10.2%	L14 Days	30.0%	0.0%	15.0%
Derek Holland	White Sox	L2 Years	34.8%	13.5%	17.3%	2017	38.3%	16.0%	17.0%	Home	32.4%	9.5%	14.6%	L14 Days	34.5%	25.0%	0.0%
Dillon Overton	Padres	L2 Years	37.8%	19.5%	26.2%	2017	34.8%	13.8%	21.8%	Home	35.9%	16.7%	22.9%	L14 Days
Dylan Bundy	Orioles	L2 Years	31.3%	12.3%	9.1%	2017	34.9%	11.3%	14.3%	Home	29.1%	11.1%	6.7%	L14 Days	48.4%	23.1%	32.3%
Eddie Butler	Cubs	L2 Years	36.6%	15.9%	21.4%	2017	32.6%	6.5%	13.0%	Road	37.4%	12.9%	20.9%	L14 Days	32.0%	4.8%	12.0%
Francis Martes	Astros	L2 Years	33.3%	12.5%	11.1%	2017	33.3%	12.5%	11.1%	Home	33.3%	10.0%	0.0%	L14 Days	33.3%	16.7%	23.8%
Francisco Liriano	Blue Jays	L2 Years	32.1%	15.0%	13.5%	2017	33.1%	13.1%	20.1%	Home	34.2%	10.7%	18.0%	L14 Days	35.1%	18.8%	13.5%
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	L2 Years	32.2%	10.9%	12.2%	2017	32.1%	12.9%	9.5%	Road	32.0%	12.1%	11.4%	L14 Days	38.7%	12.5%	12.9%
Jake Odorizzi	Rays	L2 Years	32.4%	13.1%	15.0%	2017	35.8%	18.1%	21.8%	Road	32.7%	14.1%	18.6%	L14 Days	39.5%	19.0%	21.1%
Jeremy Hellickson	Phillies	L2 Years	28.1%	12.9%	8.4%	2017	28.5%	12.6%	8.8%	Road	30.2%	12.3%	11.9%	L14 Days	17.7%	10.0%	0.0%
Jordan Montgomery	Yankees	L2 Years	26.6%	10.8%	11.6%	2017	26.6%	10.8%	11.6%	Road	22.0%	9.5%	7.4%	L14 Days	32.4%	25.0%	11.8%
Jose Berrios	Twins	L2 Years	29.4%	12.5%	11.2%	2017	24.5%	8.1%	6.4%	Road	29.4%	14.8%	9.8%	L14 Days	31.6%	11.1%	13.2%
Josh Tomlin	Indians	L2 Years	34.6%	16.6%	19.3%	2017	37.0%	15.3%	23.1%	Road	36.3%	14.9%	18.0%	L14 Days	40.5%	23.5%	21.6%
Matt Moore	Giants	L2 Years	33.3%	10.9%	16.7%	2017	39.5%	11.5%	24.0%	Road	33.5%	11.2%	19.6%	L14 Days	29.7%	16.7%	16.2%
Michael Wacha	Cardinals	L2 Years	30.2%	12.9%	9.8%	2017	29.4%	11.9%	9.5%	Home	31.2%	10.5%	11.4%	L14 Days	45.7%	0.0%	28.6%
R.A. Dickey	Braves	L2 Years	27.6%	12.4%	5.1%	2017	29.1%	15.3%	3.4%	Road	30.7%	13.8%	7.0%	L14 Days	30.6%	0.0%	0.0%
Rich Hill	Dodgers	L2 Years	27.0%	6.9%	2.6%	2017	26.8%	10.3%	0.0%	Road	24.9%	6.4%	-0.5%	L14 Days	31.0%	5.9%	-6.9%
Ricky Nolasco	Angels	L2 Years	35.4%	14.5%	21.5%	2017	38.7%	20.2%	25.5%	Home	32.2%	12.4%	16.4%	L14 Days	31.4%	16.7%	22.8%
Sam Gaviglio	Mariners	L2 Years	34.0%	22.7%	19.1%	2017	34.0%	22.7%	19.1%	Road	26.2%	31.8%	14.7%	L14 Days	34.3%	7.7%	14.3%
Tom Koehler	Marlins	L2 Years	31.3%	12.5%	13.6%	2017	37.5%	21.7%	26.7%	Road	27.8%	12.7%	8.0%	L14 Days
Tyler Chatwood	Rockies	L2 Years	28.8%	16.1%	8.1%	2017	27.6%	23.7%	3.8%	Road	24.8%	11.5%	-1.1%	L14 Days	26.9%	25.0%	7.7%
Zach Davies	Brewers	L2 Years	32.6%	13.5%	12.0%	2017	30.6%	16.7%	8.6%	Home	34.6%	14.8%	15.6%	L14 Days	20.0%	16.7%	-13.3%
Zack Greinke	Diamondbacks	L2 Years	30.5%	12.4%	9.7%	2017	34.8%	14.9%	12.9%	Home	37.2%	13.4%	17.3%	L14 Days	22.2%	9.1%	-5.6%
Zack Wheeler	Mets	L2 Years	35.0%	18.0%	17.0%	2017	35.0%	18.0%	17.0%	Home	38.6%	22.2%	17.8%	L14 Days	50.0%	37.5%	50.0%
Luke Farrell	Royals	L2 Years	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2017				Home				L14 Days
Paul Blackburn	Athletics	L2 Years	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2017				Home				L14 Days
Jackson Stephens	Reds	L2 Years	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2017				Home				L14 Days

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

Opponent	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%
Indians	Road	35.7%	12.1%	19.2%	RH	33.6%	12.1%	17.5%	L7Days	30.0%	1.7%	12.9%
Giants	Road	30.6%	11.5%	9.6%	RH	28.3%	9.1%	6.1%	L7Days	30.1%	7.7%	8.5%
Blue Jays	Home	30.0%	14.2%	10.6%	LH	30.5%	14.9%	14.5%	L7Days	29.4%	13.6%	7.8%
White Sox	Home	28.4%	12.7%	6.9%	LH	29.6%	15.1%	10.3%	L7Days	23.3%	16.0%	-3.4%
Rangers	Road	31.3%	16.5%	10.0%	LH	30.9%	14.1%	10.5%	L7Days	34.5%	28.1%	10.2%
Dodgers	Road	33.3%	13.7%	17.4%	LH	34.3%	16.8%	18.2%	L7Days	34.5%	17.6%	17.5%
Rays	Road	35.0%	17.0%	15.5%	RH	37.2%	18.5%	19.8%	L7Days	40.5%	10.4%	19.6%
Reds	Home	29.7%	16.8%	8.8%	RH	29.9%	14.6%	9.9%	L7Days	34.6%	16.7%	16.7%
Yankees	Road	31.3%	12.9%	13.2%	RH	32.0%	17.6%	12.8%	L7Days	28.4%	10.3%	7.8%
Red Sox	Road	33.1%	11.7%	13.2%	LH	33.1%	9.3%	10.0%	L7Days	29.8%	11.1%	12.0%
Cardinals	Home	31.0%	11.2%	10.8%	LH	32.0%	8.2%	13.9%	L7Days	35.8%	10.0%	17.4%
Orioles	Home	29.4%	16.0%	8.3%	RH	30.7%	15.2%	10.1%	L7Days	34.4%	13.8%	14.3%
Mets	Home	33.5%	10.2%	14.7%	RH	35.5%	13.2%	18.2%	L7Days	38.3%	11.8%	23.9%
Astros	Home	30.1%	15.7%	12.0%	LH	28.1%	15.2%	7.9%	L7Days	32.8%	11.8%	11.3%
Royals	Home	31.7%	9.1%	12.1%	RH	32.6%	12.1%	13.1%	L7Days	29.9%	9.4%	7.1%
Tigers	Home	48.6%	14.5%	35.2%	RH	42.5%	12.5%	27.3%	L7Days	44.4%	15.1%	24.4%
Pirates	Home	29.4%	9.6%	8.2%	LH	28.8%	12.0%	9.1%	L7Days	28.6%	9.4%	8.7%
Nationals	Road	30.6%	14.7%	11.8%	RH	31.5%	14.6%	14.1%	L7Days	31.3%	10.3%	12.5%
Athletics	Home	31.8%	15.7%	16.8%	RH	34.5%	15.0%	17.8%	L7Days	37.6%	21.3%	17.7%
Padres	Home	27.9%	12.9%	5.6%	LH	30.3%	12.0%	9.3%	L7Days	27.2%	14.0%	5.1%
Mariners	Road	32.8%	11.1%	15.3%	RH	31.6%	12.8%	13.8%	L7Days	33.3%	19.5%	17.4%
Angels	Home	28.7%	13.2%	10.0%	RH	30.5%	13.0%	10.9%	L7Days	28.1%	3.8%	9.4%
Brewers	Home	37.1%	19.9%	16.7%	RH	33.6%	20.1%	14.4%	L7Days	34.3%	28.3%	16.5%
Diamondbacks	Home	39.4%	16.7%	26.1%	RH	36.8%	15.7%	19.9%	L7Days	39.2%	10.4%	25.4%
Marlins	Road	29.2%	13.6%	8.3%	RH	31.0%	14.0%	10.6%	L7Days	27.2%	7.7%	0.7%
Rockies	Road	28.7%	11.8%	7.3%	RH	28.9%	12.7%	8.4%	L7Days	20.7%	6.7%	-9.2%
Phillies	Road	29.0%	10.6%	7.7%	RH	30.0%	10.3%	8.7%	L7Days	31.5%	10.9%	10.5%
Twins	Road	31.0%	12.7%	13.8%	RH	33.4%	13.8%	17.1%	L7Days	27.8%	9.7%	10.5%
Braves	Road	31.5%	12.0%	13.2%	RH	30.7%	11.5%	11.7%	L7Days	21.2%	2.4%	-5.3%
Cubs	Road	28.5%	12.7%	7.7%	RH	29.7%	13.2%	11.5%	L7Days	25.6%	6.8%	3.0%

K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Pitcher	Team	K% Season	SwStr% Season	K%/SwStr%	K% L30 Days	SwStr% L30 Days	K%/SwStr%
Anibal Sanchez	DET	20.5%	9.6%	2.14	20.0%	8.4%	2.38
Chad Kuhl	PIT	19.0%	11.5%	1.65	21.3%	11.8%	1.81
Chris Sale	BOS	35.2%	16.2%	2.17	32.6%	17.2%	1.90
Cole Hamels	TEX	10.3%	6.7%	1.54	4.0%	2.2%	1.82
Derek Holland	CHW	19.3%	8.6%	2.24	16.7%	8.4%	1.99
Dillon Overton	SDG	10.1%	8.9%	1.13
Dylan Bundy	BAL	18.2%	10.2%	1.78	20.3%	11.1%	1.83
Eddie Butler	CHC	14.1%	7.4%	1.91	11.8%	5.6%	2.11
Francis Martes	HOU	21.3%	11.5%	1.85	21.3%	11.5%	1.85
Francisco Liriano	TOR	21.1%	10.7%	1.97	20.5%	10.5%	1.95
Gio Gonzalez	WAS	22.8%	9.2%	2.48	27.6%	9.8%	2.82
Jake Odorizzi	TAM	20.5%	11.1%	1.85	19.7%	10.4%	1.89
Jeremy Hellickson	PHI	11.8%	8.2%	1.44	16.5%	10.3%	1.60
Jordan Montgomery	NYY	23.2%	13.7%	1.69	24.6%	15.5%	1.59
Jose Berrios	MIN	25.2%	10.6%	2.38	24.3%	10.7%	2.27
Josh Tomlin	CLE	17.3%	7.7%	2.25	18.5%	8.2%	2.26
Matt Moore	SFO	18.5%	8.9%	2.08	18.2%	8.6%	2.12
Michael Wacha	STL	21.4%	9.4%	2.28	17.7%	7.9%	2.24
R.A. Dickey	ATL	14.6%	8.0%	1.83	22.1%	11.0%	2.01
Rich Hill	LOS	24.3%	9.3%	2.61	25.9%	10.1%	2.56
Ricky Nolasco	ANA	19.3%	10.7%	1.80	17.3%	10.7%	1.62
Sam Gaviglio	SEA	15.1%	5.7%	2.65	18.2%	6.1%	2.98
Tom Koehler	MIA	17.9%	7.4%	2.42
Tyler Chatwood	COL	19.7%	9.8%	2.01	20.5%	10.3%	1.99
Zach Davies	MIL	14.5%	7.2%	2.01	12.4%	7.0%	1.77
Zack Greinke	ARI	28.4%	13.6%	2.09	25.8%	11.8%	2.19
Zack Wheeler	NYM	20.9%	8.7%	2.40	19.3%	7.4%	2.61
Luke Farrell	KAN
Paul Blackburn	OAK
Jackson Stephens	CIN

Chad Kuhl has sustained his SwStr% over the last month, but increased his strikeout rate. This is a supported change though and likely in part because he’s reduced his walk rate.

ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Pitcher	Team	Season ERA	Season SIERA	DIFF	Season xFIP	DIFF	Season FIP	DIFF	Season DRA	DIFF	ERA L30	SIERA L30	DIFF	xFIP L30	DIFF	FIP L30	DIFF
Anibal Sanchez	DET	6.75	4.34	-2.41	5.08	-1.67	6.57	-0.18	7.43	0.68	2.45	4.35	1.9	4.65	2.2	4.05	1.6
Chad Kuhl	PIT	5.58	4.79	-0.79	4.76	-0.82	4.28	-1.3	4.66	-0.92	4.32	4.44	0.12	4.02	-0.3	4.3	-0.02
Chris Sale	BOS	2.77	2.61	-0.16	2.62	-0.15	2.05	-0.72	1.76	-1.01	2.78	2.75	-0.03	2.69	-0.09	2.13	-0.65
Cole Hamels	TEX	4.38	5.85	1.47	5.63	1.25	5.3	0.92	5.24	0.86	14.54	6.8	-7.74	7.1	-7.44	5.44	-9.1
Derek Holland	CHW	4.26	4.85	0.59	4.99	0.73	5.35	1.09	5.82	1.56	9.55	5.1	-4.45	5.14	-4.41	7.8	-1.75
Dillon Overton	SDG	6.38	5.02	-1.36	5.42	-0.96	5.43	-0.95	6.33	-0.05
Dylan Bundy	BAL	3.73	4.99	1.26	5.19	1.46	4.75	1.02	5.29	1.56	5.93	5.07	-0.86	5.58	-0.35	6.36	0.43
Eddie Butler	CHC	3.71	5.65	1.94	5.27	1.56	4.28	0.57	7.07	3.36	3.2	5.57	2.37	5.4	2.2	4.16	0.96
Francis Martes	HOU	5.51	5.19	-0.32	5.5	-0.01	5.34	-0.17	4.89	-0.62	5.51	5.2	-0.31	5.5	-0.01	5.34	-0.17
Francisco Liriano	TOR	5.46	4.94	-0.52	4.92	-0.54	4.83	-0.63	5.36	-0.10	4.55	4.43	-0.12	4.66	0.11	4.62	0.07
Gio Gonzalez	WAS	2.87	4.58	1.71	4.48	1.61	4.36	1.49	3.72	0.85	2.53	3.71	1.18	3.86	1.33	3.29	0.76
Jake Odorizzi	TAM	4	4.61	0.61	4.77	0.77	5.48	1.48	5.53	1.53	5.61	4.96	-0.65	5.39	-0.22	6.8	1.19
Jeremy Hellickson	PHI	4.4	5.56	1.16	5.69	1.29	5.48	1.08	6.08	1.68	4.3	5	0.7	5.19	0.89	5.15	0.85
Jordan Montgomery	NYY	3.53	4.18	0.65	4.27	0.74	3.82	0.29	3.53	0.00	2.59	3.7	1.11	3.58	0.99	4	1.41
Jose Berrios	MIN	2.98	3.86	0.88	4.13	1.15	3.37	0.39	2.91	-0.07	3.21	3.85	0.64	3.86	0.65	2.93	-0.28
Josh Tomlin	CLE	6.09	4.29	-1.8	4.2	-1.89	4.44	-1.65	7.17	1.08	6.75	4.45	-2.3	4.79	-1.96	5.7	-1.05
Matt Moore	SFO	6.04	4.87	-1.17	5.15	-0.89	4.75	-1.29	7.92	1.88	8.88	5	-3.88	5.31	-3.57	4.41	-4.47
Michael Wacha	STL	4.5	4.37	-0.13	4.09	-0.41	3.88	-0.62	5.13	0.63	5.55	4.79	-0.76	4.47	-1.08	4.45	-1.1
R.A. Dickey	ATL	4.63	5.21	0.58	5.2	0.57	5.41	0.78	6.13	1.50	4.02	4.06	0.04	4.48	0.46	3.97	-0.05
Rich Hill	LOS	4.6	4.87	0.27	5.32	0.72	4.77	0.17	6.60	2.00	5.04	4.5	-0.54	5	-0.04	4.42	-0.62
Ricky Nolasco	ANA	4.86	4.53	-0.33	4.67	-0.19	5.72	0.86	7.05	2.19	4.45	4.52	0.07	4.54	0.09	5.71	1.26
Sam Gaviglio	SEA	3.38	4.91	1.53	4.7	1.32	5.83	2.45	5.84	2.46	3.29	4.56	1.27	4.34	1.05	5.62	2.33
Tom Koehler	MIA	7.04	5.24	-1.8	5.39	-1.65	6.63	-0.41	7.15	0.11
Tyler Chatwood	COL	4.32	4.86	0.54	4.28	-0.04	5.1	0.78	3.86	-0.46	2.76	4.98	2.22	4.57	1.81	5.39	2.63
Zach Davies	MIL	4.96	4.92	-0.04	4.77	-0.19	5.14	0.18	6.09	1.13	4.5	4.4	-0.1	4.22	-0.28	4.67	0.17
Zack Greinke	ARI	3.08	3.27	0.19	3.16	0.08	3.29	0.21	2.39	-0.69	2.7	3.33	0.63	2.94	0.24	3.1	0.4
Zack Wheeler	NYM	5.29	4.6	-0.69	4.34	-0.95	4.85	-0.44	6.41	1.12	9.53	4.74	-4.79	4.59	-4.94	6.31	-3.22
Luke Farrell	KAN
Paul Blackburn	OAK
Jackson Stephens	CIN

Chad Kuhl has a .344 BABIP and 66.5 LOB%. His BABIP was actually increased in June (.351), but so was his strand rate (79.1%). His profile shows a high line drive rate and low infield fly rate with a poor defense. That might do it, but we can still expect some regression.

Jake Odorizzi has run an ERA below his estimators in the past with HR suppression. That is not at all the case this year, but his .245 BABIP is 30 points below his career rate. He generates a ton of fly balls, but not a lot of pop ups with a high line drive rate. I’m comfortable projecting his BABIP to return to career rates, which could be a problem for his ERA.

BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Pitcher	Team	Team BABIP	Pitcher BABIP	Diff	GB%	Pitcher LD%	Pitcher IFFB%	Pitcher Zcontact	Exit Velocity	Barrels BBE	Barrels PA	BBE
Anibal Sanchez	DET	0.311	0.323	0.012	36.3%	0.186	6.5%	84.4%	87	11.30%	7.90%	106
Chad Kuhl	PIT	0.308	0.344	0.036	41.8%	0.221	6.5%	85.3%	86.8	5.00%	3.50%	220
Chris Sale	BOS	0.310	0.289	-0.021	37.8%	0.228	10.8%	77.3%	86.7	6.10%	3.60%	262
Cole Hamels	TEX	0.292	0.250	-0.042	49.6%	0.202	11.1%	90.4%	86.6	3.30%	2.60%	120
Derek Holland	CHW	0.283	0.303	0.02	38.4%	0.216	10.0%	87.5%	87.9	9.10%	6.40%	253
Dillon Overton	SDG	0.299	0.262	-0.037	39.7%	0.176	3.4%	86.2%	89.5	13.00%	11.40%	69
Dylan Bundy	BAL	0.313	0.264	-0.049	32.3%	0.215	14.3%	85.9%	87.6	8.20%	6.00%	292
Eddie Butler	CHC	0.286	0.259	-0.027	44.5%	0.219	10.9%	91.0%	87.1	5.10%	3.80%	138
Francis Martes	HOU	0.294	0.302	0.008	44.4%	0.2	18.8%	85.1%	88.7	13.30%	8.00%	45
Francisco Liriano	TOR	0.300	0.317	0.017	44.5%	0.183	6.6%	87.4%	87.3	7.70%	5.10%	169
Gio Gonzalez	WAS	0.297	0.261	-0.036	42.6%	0.192	11.9%	87.2%	86	6.20%	4.10%	274
Jake Odorizzi	TAM	0.292	0.245	-0.047	32.6%	0.243	7.4%	83.4%	87	7.70%	5.40%	221
Jeremy Hellickson	PHI	0.305	0.249	-0.056	36.3%	0.207	11.8%	86.6%	86.2	6.90%	5.50%	305
Jordan Montgomery	NYY	0.286	0.278	-0.008	43.0%	0.165	7.5%	85.9%	86.3	6.90%	4.70%	233
Jose Berrios	MIN	0.290	0.247	-0.043	44.4%	0.15	8.1%	84.3%	85.5	4.50%	2.90%	155
Josh Tomlin	CLE	0.303	0.353	0.05	40.2%	0.243	4.1%	91.7%	88.3	7.10%	5.70%	281
Matt Moore	SFO	0.320	0.337	0.017	37.1%	0.21	5.7%	88.0%	89.9	10.80%	7.80%	296
Michael Wacha	STL	0.291	0.343	0.052	47.2%	0.218	4.5%	84.4%	85.3	5.90%	4.10%	221
R.A. Dickey	ATL	0.285	0.270	-0.015	49.0%	0.172	14.3%	85.5%	85	6.40%	4.80%	296
Rich Hill	LOS	0.279	0.291	0.012	37.3%	0.136	15.5%	82.1%	83.3	6.50%	3.90%	123
Ricky Nolasco	ANA	0.286	0.302	0.016	41.1%	0.184	7.0%	85.7%	89.7	10.50%	7.60%	287
Sam Gaviglio	SEA	0.282	0.237	-0.045	52.2%	0.159	9.1%	92.6%	86.9	7.10%	5.40%	141
Tom Koehler	MIA	0.289	0.309	0.02	37.1%	0.233	4.3%	88.4%	88.5	8.30%	5.80%	120
Tyler Chatwood	COL	0.297	0.259	-0.038	56.7%	0.201	3.4%	88.1%	85.1	5.00%	3.30%	261
Zach Davies	MIL	0.297	0.314	0.017	49.0%	0.217	9.5%	89.5%	86	6.90%	5.30%	291
Zack Greinke	ARI	0.289	0.281	-0.008	46.8%	0.18	12.8%	86.1%	86.5	7.40%	4.90%	270
Zack Wheeler	NYM	0.315	0.328	0.013	45.2%	0.239	8.2%	86.1%	87.2	8.50%	5.80%	199
Luke Farrell	KAN	0.299
Paul Blackburn	OAK	0.296
Jackson Stephens	CIN	0.289

h2=. Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Tiers are being skipped today because these are all well below fourth tier pitchers. Arms are listed in order of value preference. In all honesty though, some of the arms that were skipped today (Bundy, Dickey, Hellickson) may be just as likely to put up a decent start as the names below. The late afternoon slate is a crap shoot.

Jake Odorizzi has some exploitable flaws in this park, but the Orioles haven’t been very good and he does at least have the potential to miss bats at an above average rate.

Chad Kuhl has some positive properties. He throws hard and generates swings and misses which can turn into strikeouts when he’s not walking batters, as has been the case in recent starts. He does have a 16.2 K-BB% over this last three starts. While not in a great spot to accumulate strikeouts this afternoon, it’s a nice run prevention spot in a power suppressing park.

Zack Wheeler may have more upside than any pitcher on this board if he’s healthy and is in the best spot as well. Two questions concern arm health and work load limitations having not thrown a competitive pitch in two weeks.

Zach Davies is in a decent spot and has pitched well on occasion this year, though his ability to miss bats at a near average rate this year has been greatly reduced this year.

Jackson Stephens may not be much, but with just four starts above AAA nobody knows much about him. At nearly the lowest cost possible, that may be enough against a struggling Cubs offense.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window