Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, June 4th
All of Saturday’s pitchers are listed (late edit: or at least the ones we thought were pitching last night), but there will only be notes on the night games today. Unfortunately, the night slate is kind of bare, aside from Kershaw, of course. On single pitcher sites he should be 100% owned in cash games, but for two pitcher sites, players might have to get creative.
NOTE: It seems as if both Nicholas Tropeano and Mike Foltynewicz have been scratched since Saturday’s list of pitchers has been compiled.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.3 | 4.1 | 5.94 | 1.45 | 0.86 | 3.34 | 5.65 | COL | 86 | 94 | 114 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | -4.8 | 3.98 | 6.28 | 1.1 | 1 | 4.08 | 5.44 | FLA | 85 | 95 | 57 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 1.9 | 4.21 | 5.78 | 1.74 | 0.86 | 4.39 | 6.6 | SDG | 78 | 73 | 119 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 3.2 | 2.72 | 6.82 | 1.09 | 1.01 | 2.71 | 3.9 | DET | 113 | 96 | 100 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.9 | 2.16 | 7.41 | 1.74 | 0.9 | 1.84 | 2.24 | ATL | 69 | 56 | 24 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.8 | 3.72 | 6.15 | 1.28 | 1.01 | 3.74 | 2.58 | OAK | 97 | 90 | 145 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | -6.2 | 4.47 | 5.55 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 5.08 | 3.71 | WAS | 99 | 88 | 119 |
| Edwin Escobar | ARI | -7.1 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 0.88 | 1.03 | 5.19 | CHC | 104 | 117 | 92 | |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -3.4 | 4.08 | 6.13 | 1.18 | 1.03 | 4.38 | 4.51 | TAM | 114 | 95 | 101 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 5.7 | 3.75 | 5.82 | 0.94 | 1.03 | 4.43 | 5.01 | CLE | 117 | 104 | 120 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | -1.5 | 4.26 | 5.59 | 1.87 | 1.04 | 3.93 | 3.64 | BAL | 107 | 113 | 119 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 11.8 | 3.61 | 5.56 | 1.07 | 1.03 | 3.88 | 5.05 | ARI | 101 | 95 | 76 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 3.2 | 4.33 | 5.9 | 1.82 | 0.95 | 4.02 | 5.48 | ANA | 101 | 91 | 116 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.9 | 3.68 | 6.74 | 1.21 | 0.97 | 4.25 | 4.36 | STL | 110 | 118 | 102 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | -0.3 | 3.95 | 5.35 | 1.09 | 1.02 | 3.74 | 2.59 | MIL | 80 | 90 | 81 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 9.4 | 3.6 | 6.14 | 1 | 1.03 | 3.76 | 4.08 | KAN | 94 | 99 | 132 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -8.4 | 3.81 | 6.02 | 1.1 | 1.02 | 4.33 | 3.71 | PHI | 65 | 74 | 52 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 2.1 | 5.57 | 6. | 1.18 | 1 | 5.65 | 4.02 | NYM | 106 | 92 | 78 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -14.2 | 4.4 | 5.43 | 1.79 | 1.01 | 4.27 | 4.93 | HOU | 93 | 95 | 126 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.7 | 3.48 | 6.35 | 2.27 | 1.07 | 3.75 | 4.02 | BOS | 128 | 124 | 143 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 13.3 | 4.46 | 5.8 | 2.52 | 1.07 | 3.99 | 3.94 | SEA | 115 | 105 | 161 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.1 | 4.17 | 5.32 | 1.42 | 1.03 | 4.74 | 4.3 | MIN | 90 | 90 | 118 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -9.5 | 4.21 | 5.75 | 1.37 | 0.97 | 3.77 | 4.53 | SFO | 94 | 100 | 118 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -4.8 | 4.24 | 5.58 | 0.79 | 0.9 | 4.06 | 4.52 | LOS | 86 | 89 | 75 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | -7.8 | 4.72 | 5.43 | 1.85 | 1.01 | 4.26 | 4.7 | CHW | 90 | 84 | 59 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | -6.5 | 3.87 | 5.61 | 1.17 | 1.07 | 3.65 | 3.94 | TEX | 101 | 92 | 114 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 4.7 | 4.32 | 5.39 | 0.83 | 0.95 | 5.1 | 4.56 | PIT | 124 | 113 | 64 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 6.3 | 2.75 | 6.09 | 1.3 | 1.02 | 2.55 | 3.39 | CIN | 86 | 83 | 163 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 3.9 | 4.14 | 6.35 | 1.22 | 1.07 | 4.55 | 4.28 | TOR | 92 | 98 | 123 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | -2.8 | 4.86 | 5.51 | 1.6 | 1.04 | 5 | 3.85 | NYY | 70 | 84 | 59 |
Andrew Cashner has been terrible in two starts back from the disabled list (12.1 IP – 6 ER – 5 BB – 4 K). He has had five starts this season with a SwStr below 4%. He used to have a reputation for being a good pitcher at home and while he has a 10.3 K-BB% at Petco this season, he has had a 3.2 SwStr% or lower in three of his five home starts with a 4.83 FIP. He does have a 50.6 GB% and 26.2 Hard% at home though. The Rockies are a below average road offense. That’s his saving grace tonight.
Clayton Kershaw has struck out at least 10 in seven of his last eight starts. He has walked just five this season and gone at least seven innings in every start. One day, he is not going to have a great start. If that night is tonight, daily fantasy baseball will fall into chaos. Oh, yeah, he’s facing the……no……this can’t be serious…..he’s facing the Braves??? How the hell is this fair? This is like putting a five year old child in a cage against Brock Lesnar (I’m not current on my UFC).
Josh Tomlin was coming off two starts in which he pitched 15.2 innings, allowing four runs, while striking out 13 of 58 batters. He was then smashed by Texas, striking out just one of 22 batters, getting knocked out in the 4th inning. The HRs are out of control. It’s the 3rd straight season he’s flashed a HR/FB above 15. The strikeout rate (16.2%) is subpar, but the walk rate (2.9%) is immaculate, allowing him to retain an ERA below four with estimators not much above. The Royals offense just kept on trucking with nearly half of their lineup missing, but that came to an end last night against Salazar and theoretically, there’s not much power in this lineup.
Michael Wacha has not been good this year and although his underlying numbers aren’t great, they’re not as bad as his ERA suggests. His 11.4 K-BB% is just a bit less than last year, though it has decreased along with his K%, while his BB% has risen each year in the league. The Giants have been an average offense, though a bit better lately, and do not strike out against RHP (15.8 K%).
Mike Foltynewicz might have been the most usable starter behind Kershaw tonight. That wasn’t a good thing to start with, but it has now been reported that he has been scratched and Bud Norris may start.
Nathan Karns has a 23.7 K% with an 8.7 BB%, but has not walked more than two in five of his last six starts. He’s also allowed just one HR in his last five starts after five in his first five, though he’s still having difficulty getting deep in games. He’s pitched into the 7th inning in three of his last five starts, but has only completed seven once this year. Texas is a tough park, but the offense is fairly neutral.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
Ian Kennedy (.260 BABIP – 84.6 LOB% – 11.3 HR/FB) skirted five walks in his last start, following a start where he struck out just three. Seven of his eight HRs have come on the road and while Cleveland is not considered a ban box, it has played favorably for LH power over the last few years and the Tribe has been the 3rd best home offense this season (8.7 K-BB%, 14.6 Hard-Soft%). This is not a great spot for him at an above average cost and since you’re not fading Kershaw, it’s probably not your best use of funds on two pitcher sites to try and squeeze them both in.
Martin Perez (.264 BABIP – 78.3 LOB% – 10.2 HR/FB) has just a 3.3 K-BB%. His 57.4 LOB% is, by far, his strongest and probably only positive point, but he can’t keep walking that many batters and expect to strand nearly 80% of them with so few strikeouts, while the BABIP profiles as one that might rise. He had one 60 points higher with more favorable contact last year (higher GB%, much lower Hard%) and has a .303 career BABIP through 358.2 career innings, which is still a small sample.
Tyler Wilson (.242 BABIP – 73.2 LOB% – 13.0 HR/FB) has just a 12.6 K% and 6.8 K-BB%. There’s really nothing in his BABIP profile that would suggest suppression skills. Remember that LD rates are more descriptive than predictive and fluctuate wildly.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ivan Nova allowed four runs in back to back starts against Toronto, striking out 12 of 56 batters. His 17.0 K% as a starter over the last month is not great, but it’s much higher than his bullpen work and at least useful with a 61.3 GB%, though that too has declined slightly as a starter (58.7%). He has also allowed a single HR in each of his five starts (22.7 HR/FB). The Orioles are a dangerous and powerful offense (15.8 HR/FB vs RHP) and one that DraftKings is asking you to pay $8.5K for Nova to face. Yes, he is the 3rd most expensive pitcher on their night slate for whatever strange reason. On FanDuel, he’s just $6.9K and potentially one of the more playable pitchers if Kershaw weren’t on the slate. It’s still not something you’d have much confidence in.
Jeff Samardzija seems way out of place down here on a night when there are no other reasonable pitchers besides Kershaw. He’s been great this year. Yes, he has. Can you afford him with Kershaw on two pitcher sites? Probably not. Do you want to pay $10.2K for him in St Louis against the 3rd best offense vs RHP tonight instead of Kershaw on single pitcher sites?
Chad Bettis has allowed at least three runs in seven of his last eight starts. Four of them have been on the road, but in Arizona, San Francisco, St Louis, and Boston, not all friendly places to pitch. He’s also struck out more than four in just one of his last seven starts and three of 11 total. The Padres are still terrible against RHP (18.4 K-BB%), but are flat out smoking the ball right now.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.6% | Home | 23.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 7.8% | 9.8% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 17.1% | 3.5% | Road | 15.2% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 5.6% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.8% | 7.8% | Road | 17.2% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 13.3% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.1% | 5.3% | Road | 31.8% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 12.2% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 33.3% | 4.0% | Home | 36.3% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 1.8% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 21.3% | 6.1% | Home | 21.3% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 3.5% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 20.7% | 11.0% | Home | 18.7% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 25.3% | 8.9% |
| Edwin Escobar | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 13.3% | 3.3% | Road | L14 Days | 9.1% | 4.6% | ||
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 20.0% | 8.0% | Home | 17.6% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 8.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.9% | 8.4% | Road | 20.8% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 14.0% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | L2 Years | 15.2% | 6.6% | Road | 15.2% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 5.4% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | L2 Years | 23.1% | 6.6% | Home | 21.1% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 11.4% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.2% | 8.2% | Home | 17.7% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 20.5% | 4.9% | Road | 17.3% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 9.8% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 20.4% | 6.6% | Home | 21.1% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 2.0% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 20.0% | 2.9% | Home | 21.5% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 2.0% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 23.8% | 7.9% | Road | 23.4% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 8.2% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 8.3% | 6.8% | Home | 6.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 1.5% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 16.1% | 7.9% | Road | 17.0% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 11.1% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.1% | 6.0% | Road | 18.0% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 5.5% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 14.3% | 9.0% | Home | 14.6% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 6.0% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 16.7% | 6.3% | Road | 13.6% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 6.5% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.1% | 8.0% | Home | 19.9% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 10.6% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.1% | Road | 21.4% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 13.0% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 12.0% | 6.8% | Home | 13.0% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 3.9% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 23.6% | 8.9% | Road | 25.8% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 6.0% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | Angels | L2 Years | 21.2% | 9.5% | Road | 20.7% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 12.5% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.0% | 5.1% | Road | 29.4% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 7.7% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.9% | 8.4% | Home | 19.6% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 21.5% | 10.8% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 11.0% | 6.5% | Home | 11.3% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 3.6% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Road | 21.2% | 6.0% | RH | 18.2% | 7.0% | L7Days | 18.1% | 10.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.4% | 7.2% | RH | 19.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.3% | 7.2% |
| Padres | Home | 24.0% | 7.1% | RH | 24.5% | 6.1% | L7Days | 21.6% | 4.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.4% | 8.2% | LH | 23.1% | 10.1% | L7Days | 26.3% | 9.7% |
| Braves | Road | 20.0% | 7.4% | LH | 23.4% | 6.1% | L7Days | 22.5% | 8.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.8% | 6.0% | RH | 18.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 22.7% | 6.8% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.0% | 9.1% | RH | 21.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 23.5% | 5.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 22.7% | 12.0% | LH | 19.9% | 12.5% | L7Days | 31.2% | 9.3% |
| Rays | Road | 24.7% | 8.3% | RH | 25.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.5% | 6.4% |
| Indians | Home | 18.8% | 10.4% | RH | 20.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 14.2% | 10.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 19.3% | 9.0% | RH | 23.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.1% | 9.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.3% | 7.4% | RH | 21.7% | 7.0% | L7Days | 30.0% | 9.2% |
| Angels | Road | 15.3% | 8.2% | LH | 16.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.8% | 11.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.0% | 8.7% | RH | 19.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.6% | 8.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 26.7% | 10.7% | RH | 26.6% | 9.9% | L7Days | 20.6% | 10.3% |
| Royals | Road | 20.0% | 5.8% | RH | 19.1% | 6.3% | L7Days | 16.0% | 9.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 23.4% | 7.7% | RH | 22.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 25.2% | 6.4% |
| Mets | Road | 24.6% | 7.8% | LH | 27.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 26.9% | 10.1% |
| Astros | Home | 26.7% | 10.3% | RH | 25.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.6% | 9.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.4% | 9.7% | RH | 18.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 16.9% | 9.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.7% | 8.0% | LH | 20.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 15.7% | 8.7% |
| Twins | Home | 19.1% | 7.7% | RH | 23.1% | 7.8% | L7Days | 22.5% | 8.9% |
| Giants | Road | 16.1% | 8.5% | RH | 15.8% | 10.3% | L7Days | 15.5% | 8.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.0% | 8.4% | RH | 20.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.3% | 7.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 20.9% | 7.1% | RH | 20.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.0% | 6.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 17.4% | 8.3% | RH | 18.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 15.7% | 6.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.2% | 9.0% | RH | 19.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 26.3% | 6.5% |
| Reds | Home | 22.0% | 6.1% | RH | 22.4% | 6.2% | L7Days | 19.0% | 6.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.1% | 9.0% | RH | 22.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 17.3% | 7.5% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.7% | 7.1% | RH | 19.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 6.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | L2 Years | 29.1% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 2016 | 25.0% | 10.4% | 11.8% | Home | 32.0% | 11.1% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 9.1% | 7.4% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 30.2% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 2016 | 37.8% | 9.1% | 24.0% | Road | 29.5% | 10.2% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 45.7% | 0.0% | 24.0% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.6% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 2016 | 31.5% | 14.5% | 14.6% | Road | 29.9% | 11.7% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 18.8% | 17.2% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 26.2% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 2016 | 24.6% | 7.6% | 3.3% | Road | 26.1% | 7.9% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 10.0% | 17.3% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.3% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 2016 | 28.3% | 7.3% | 9.6% | Home | 25.0% | 6.7% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 10.0% | -2.6% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 25.3% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 2016 | 25.6% | 10.8% | 6.0% | Home | 22.8% | 7.9% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 16.7% | 15.8% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 29.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 2016 | 30.9% | 11.9% | 12.7% | Home | 29.4% | 7.7% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 15.4% | 24.0% |
| Edwin Escobar | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 50.0% | 0.0% | 18.2% | 2016 | 52.9% | 0.0% | 23.5% | Road | L14 Days | 52.9% | 0.0% | 23.5% | |||
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.4% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 2016 | 27.7% | 10.4% | 6.1% | Home | 31.0% | 12.7% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 15.4% | 14.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 32.9% | 12.6% | 16.8% | 2016 | 33.5% | 11.3% | 12.6% | Road | 33.4% | 12.8% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 11.1% | 3.7% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.6% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 2016 | 30.3% | 20.0% | 9.2% | Road | 34.1% | 17.3% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | L2 Years | 30.7% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 2016 | 28.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | Home | 32.8% | 13.0% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 0.0% | 29.2% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | L2 Years | 27.5% | 12.7% | 7.2% | 2016 | 25.6% | 12.9% | 9.2% | Home | 25.7% | 11.1% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 26.7% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 2016 | 27.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | Road | 26.5% | 8.3% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.3% | -8.6% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.4% | 12.9% | 16.4% | 2016 | 31.1% | 16.4% | 10.2% | Home | 32.5% | 13.7% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 10.0% | 5.8% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 32.7% | 15.3% | 16.3% | 2016 | 38.0% | 15.2% | 21.8% | Home | 34.4% | 17.6% | 21.8% | L14 Days | 34.9% | 18.2% | 11.6% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.8% | 7.3% | 15.2% | 2016 | 36.7% | 5.3% | 17.3% | Road | 21.4% | 11.8% | -4.8% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.8% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 2016 | 37.7% | 8.2% | 21.8% | Home | 36.8% | 8.5% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 14.3% | 42.3% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.1% | 15.7% | 12.9% | 2016 | 31.6% | 20.0% | 14.6% | Road | 26.7% | 21.4% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 0.0% | 15.6% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 26.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 2016 | 32.8% | 11.3% | 16.8% | Road | 26.7% | 16.2% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 44.2% | 25.0% | 25.6% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 25.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 2016 | 28.7% | 10.2% | 11.4% | Home | 20.4% | 8.8% | -0.5% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 11.1% | 7.9% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 33.7% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 2016 | 35.3% | 3.0% | 17.6% | Road | 34.3% | 5.1% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 6.3% | 20.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.9% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 2016 | 30.1% | 9.1% | 12.5% | Home | 29.2% | 10.6% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 9.1% | 9.4% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 30.2% | 13.5% | 9.4% | 2016 | 28.7% | 16.7% | 4.9% | Road | 33.9% | 19.7% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 11.1% | 3.6% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.2% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 2016 | 34.4% | 18.2% | 16.2% | Home | 28.7% | 11.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.9% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 2016 | 30.1% | 11.3% | 9.8% | Road | 34.4% | 12.9% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 10.0% | -10.6% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | Angels | L2 Years | 29.5% | 6.8% | 14.3% | 2016 | 35.4% | 11.0% | 19.2% | Road | 27.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 9.1% | 16.1% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.5% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 2016 | 24.5% | 9.2% | 1.7% | Road | 28.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 28.9% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 2016 | 25.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | Home | 31.0% | 6.7% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | -6.8% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.5% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 2016 | 29.8% | 13.0% | 9.6% | Home | 27.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 25.0% | 17.4% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Road | 28.9% | 13.7% | 8.5% | RH | 31.6% | 12.9% | 13.8% | L7Days | 36.5% | 21.1% | 19.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 29.5% | 10.2% | 7.0% | RH | 28.7% | 10.1% | 6.4% | L7Days | 30.7% | 5.3% | 11.4% |
| Padres | Home | 27.5% | 9.5% | 10.8% | RH | 31.2% | 10.2% | 14.0% | L7Days | 30.8% | 15.9% | 13.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 34.3% | 13.5% | 18.2% | LH | 34.0% | 12.0% | 14.9% | L7Days | 28.3% | 14.0% | 2.4% |
| Braves | Road | 23.8% | 5.7% | 2.3% | LH | 28.4% | 6.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.1% | 12.0% | 10.1% | RH | 29.4% | 9.8% | 10.0% | L7Days | 29.9% | 12.3% | 9.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 34.8% | 14.2% | 16.6% | RH | 32.5% | 13.1% | 14.4% | L7Days | 34.2% | 24.1% | 9.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 29.6% | 11.6% | 10.3% | LH | 29.6% | 14.3% | 12.4% | L7Days | 23.9% | 15.7% | 0.0% |
| Rays | Road | 33.8% | 15.5% | 15.6% | RH | 34.2% | 14.4% | 13.7% | L7Days | 34.1% | 9.1% | 13.4% |
| Indians | Home | 30.8% | 11.0% | 15.1% | RH | 31.6% | 13.0% | 15.3% | L7Days | 29.3% | 12.9% | 15.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 32.4% | 14.2% | 9.6% | RH | 32.3% | 15.8% | 11.7% | L7Days | 37.0% | 12.0% | 15.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.7% | 11.3% | 11.1% | RH | 32.6% | 12.5% | 13.8% | L7Days | 34.0% | 11.9% | 14.1% |
| Angels | Road | 28.4% | 8.3% | 5.4% | LH | 26.0% | 11.4% | 3.6% | L7Days | 30.0% | 15.4% | 9.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 32.7% | 13.8% | 15.0% | RH | 32.2% | 14.5% | 13.6% | L7Days | 30.8% | 8.8% | 10.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 29.7% | 13.1% | 9.3% | RH | 32.6% | 15.5% | 13.3% | L7Days | 36.4% | 10.5% | 18.5% |
| Royals | Road | 27.3% | 9.9% | 8.5% | RH | 29.3% | 9.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 32.7% | 11.7% | 14.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.5% | 7.9% | 0.0% | RH | 25.9% | 9.7% | 5.0% | L7Days | 23.4% | 12.3% | -2.6% |
| Mets | Road | 36.0% | 18.2% | 22.6% | LH | 34.5% | 14.8% | 14.6% | L7Days | 37.3% | 13.2% | 18.3% |
| Astros | Home | 34.9% | 14.2% | 18.4% | RH | 34.1% | 15.3% | 16.8% | L7Days | 35.4% | 12.5% | 17.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 33.4% | 11.9% | 15.0% | RH | 33.9% | 13.7% | 15.4% | L7Days | 37.7% | 20.0% | 18.2% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.5% | 15.9% | 13.6% | LH | 29.5% | 17.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 34.1% | 20.3% | 18.5% |
| Twins | Home | 31.8% | 9.3% | 14.2% | RH | 31.1% | 11.4% | 12.4% | L7Days | 29.3% | 11.8% | 8.3% |
| Giants | Road | 32.5% | 12.2% | 12.7% | RH | 31.4% | 10.3% | 12.3% | L7Days | 33.3% | 14.0% | 14.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 31.2% | 14.8% | 12.5% | RH | 32.5% | 12.0% | 15.0% | L7Days | 31.7% | 23.5% | 10.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 27.3% | 10.7% | 8.7% | RH | 27.4% | 10.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.8% | 1.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 26.5% | 11.8% | 4.6% | RH | 27.8% | 11.8% | 7.0% | L7Days | 25.8% | 17.5% | 3.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 28.9% | 10.5% | 8.1% | RH | 28.7% | 10.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 32.4% | 8.6% | 13.3% |
| Reds | Home | 31.1% | 17.1% | 15.6% | RH | 32.2% | 14.0% | 14.5% | L7Days | 33.8% | 27.0% | 13.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.5% | 13.6% | 11.8% | RH | 33.8% | 13.8% | 16.2% | L7Days | 35.9% | 14.0% | 17.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 27.4% | 10.2% | 9.4% | RH | 24.0% | 14.2% | 6.2% | L7Days | 30.9% | 11.1% | 12.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 15.5% | 5.9% | 2.63 | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.65 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 17.7% | 6.0% | 2.95 | 13.4% | 3.6% | 3.72 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 16.5% | 7.6% | 2.17 | 15.8% | 6.8% | 2.32 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 25.2% | 9.4% | 2.68 | 27.1% | 8.4% | 3.23 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 34.0% | 15.4% | 2.21 | 36.4% | 15.6% | 2.33 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 20.7% | 10.4% | 1.99 | 23.4% | 12.3% | 1.90 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 22.1% | 10.7% | 2.07 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 2.26 |
| Edwin Escobar | ARI | 9.1% | 9.2% | 0.99 | 9.1% | 9.2% | 0.99 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 19.8% | 9.5% | 2.08 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 1.87 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 24.1% | 10.5% | 2.30 | 25.0% | 9.8% | 2.55 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 15.2% | 9.0% | 1.69 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 1.91 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 22.1% | 10.3% | 2.15 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 1.91 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 13.0% | 7.8% | 1.67 | 9.2% | 6.1% | 1.51 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 21.9% | 10.1% | 2.17 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 2.10 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 25.2% | 12.6% | 2.00 | 26.2% | 14.6% | 1.79 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 16.6% | 7.2% | 2.31 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 2.31 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 24.7% | 12.5% | 1.98 | 26.8% | 12.5% | 2.14 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 9.6% | 3.7% | 2.59 | 12.2% | 3.4% | 3.59 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 17.3% | 9.3% | 1.86 | 14.0% | 7.4% | 1.89 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 16.4% | 8.1% | 2.02 | 16.2% | 8.8% | 1.84 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 14.6% | 7.9% | 1.85 | 16.7% | 8.6% | 1.94 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 15.3% | 8.5% | 1.80 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 1.80 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 19.9% | 7.8% | 2.55 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 2.28 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 20.1% | 8.7% | 2.31 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 2.14 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 12.0% | 8.3% | 1.45 | 14.3% | 8.4% | 1.70 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.35 | 23.0% | 10.7% | 2.15 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 22.1% | 12.8% | 1.73 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 1.65 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 30.5% | 11.5% | 2.65 | 31.7% | 11.3% | 2.81 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 21.7% | 12.0% | 1.81 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 1.69 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 12.6% | 6.1% | 2.07 | 12.7% | 5.5% | 2.31 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 4.79 | 4.88 | 0.09 | 4.82 | 0.03 | 4.55 | -0.24 | 4.67 | 5.62 | 0.95 | 5.44 | 0.77 | 5.26 | 0.59 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 3.39 | 4.2 | 0.81 | 4.03 | 0.64 | 3.57 | 0.18 | 4.3 | 5.09 | 0.79 | 5.02 | 0.72 | 4.32 | 0.02 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 5.46 | 4.34 | -1.12 | 4.18 | -1.28 | 4.45 | -1.01 | 7.57 | 4.58 | -2.99 | 4.47 | -3.1 | 4.67 | -2.9 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 2.29 | 3.42 | 1.13 | 3.54 | 1.25 | 2.91 | 0.62 | 3.06 | 3.19 | 0.13 | 3.34 | 0.28 | 2.85 | -0.21 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 1.56 | 2.02 | 0.46 | 1.94 | 0.38 | 1.51 | -0.05 | 1.11 | 1.75 | 0.64 | 1.64 | 0.53 | 1.09 | -0.02 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.82 | 3.88 | -0.94 | 3.93 | -0.89 | 3.68 | -1.14 | 3.41 | 3.44 | 0.03 | 3.37 | -0.04 | 3.33 | -0.08 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 3.43 | 4.35 | 0.92 | 4.44 | 1.01 | 4.37 | 0.94 | 3.47 | 4.31 | 0.84 | 4.38 | 0.91 | 4.17 | 0.7 |
| Edwin Escobar | ARI | 18.9 | 5.17 | -13.73 | 6.56 | -12.34 | 4.63 | -14.27 | 18.9 | 5.19 | -13.71 | 6.56 | -12.34 | 4.63 | -14.27 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 4.13 | 4.36 | 0.23 | 4.16 | 0.03 | 3.9 | -0.23 | 4.82 | 4.36 | -0.46 | 4.11 | -0.71 | 4.41 | -0.41 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 3.03 | 4.08 | 1.05 | 4.48 | 1.45 | 4.31 | 1.28 | 3.49 | 4.01 | 0.52 | 4.21 | 0.72 | 4.68 | 1.19 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 3.98 | 3.38 | -0.6 | 3.62 | -0.36 | 4.31 | 0.33 | 3.41 | 3.61 | 0.2 | 3.59 | 0.18 | 4.61 | 1.2 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 2.09 | 4.25 | 2.16 | 4.21 | 2.12 | 3.33 | 1.24 | 3 | 4.33 | 1.33 | 4.22 | 1.22 | 3.57 | 0.57 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 4.33 | 5.18 | 0.85 | 4.93 | 0.6 | 5 | 0.67 | 4.01 | 5.45 | 1.44 | 5.23 | 1.22 | 5.45 | 1.44 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 2.84 | 3.72 | 0.88 | 3.54 | 0.7 | 2.96 | 0.12 | 2.29 | 3.6 | 1.31 | 3.52 | 1.23 | 2.25 | -0.04 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 3.68 | 3.41 | -0.27 | 3.38 | -0.3 | 3.88 | 0.2 | 2.51 | 2.97 | 0.46 | 2.81 | 0.3 | 2.82 | 0.31 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 3.79 | 4.15 | 0.36 | 4.1 | 0.31 | 4.54 | 0.75 | 4.26 | 4.19 | -0.07 | 4.01 | -0.25 | 5.06 | 0.8 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 3.47 | 3.82 | 0.35 | 3.82 | 0.35 | 2.85 | -0.62 | 2.97 | 3.67 | 0.7 | 3.79 | 0.82 | 2.9 | -0.07 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 4.5 | 5.53 | 1.03 | 5.28 | 0.78 | 4.6 | 0.1 | 5.4 | 5.11 | -0.29 | 5.09 | -0.31 | 4.44 | -0.96 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 5.09 | 4.57 | -0.52 | 4.46 | -0.63 | 5.39 | 0.3 | 5.92 | 5.46 | -0.46 | 5.37 | -0.55 | 6.46 | 0.54 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 4.46 | 3.87 | -0.59 | 3.79 | -0.67 | 3.69 | -0.77 | 5.4 | 3.57 | -1.83 | 3.44 | -1.96 | 3.44 | -1.96 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 3.12 | 4.95 | 1.83 | 4.6 | 1.48 | 4.4 | 1.28 | 2.59 | 4.4 | 1.81 | 4.15 | 1.56 | 3.8 | 1.21 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 2.36 | 4.47 | 2.11 | 4.3 | 1.94 | 3.13 | 0.77 | 2.36 | 4.47 | 2.11 | 4.3 | 1.94 | 3.13 | 0.77 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 4.99 | 4.24 | -0.75 | 3.99 | -1 | 3.6 | -1.39 | 8.63 | 4.53 | -4.1 | 4.28 | -4.35 | 3.75 | -4.88 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 3.51 | 4.04 | 0.53 | 4.09 | 0.58 | 4.69 | 1.18 | 2.73 | 3.91 | 1.18 | 3.89 | 1.16 | 3.63 | 0.9 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 4.96 | 5.11 | 0.15 | 4.85 | -0.11 | 5.64 | 0.68 | 4.28 | 4.43 | 0.15 | 4.26 | -0.02 | 5.76 | 1.48 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 3.43 | 3.93 | 0.5 | 3.72 | 0.29 | 3.6 | 0.17 | 3.07 | 3.74 | 0.67 | 3.63 | 0.56 | 2.48 | -0.59 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 3.25 | 4.6 | 1.35 | 4.87 | 1.62 | 4.63 | 1.38 | 3.1 | 4.35 | 1.25 | 4.53 | 1.43 | 4.44 | 1.34 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 2.69 | 2.98 | 0.29 | 2.96 | 0.27 | 2.6 | -0.09 | 3.11 | 3.01 | -0.1 | 3.18 | 0.07 | 3.23 | 0.12 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 2.45 | 4.22 | 1.77 | 4.15 | 1.7 | 3.19 | 0.74 | 3.13 | 4.15 | 1.02 | 4.04 | 0.91 | 3.1 | -0.03 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 3.83 | 4.7 | 0.87 | 4.63 | 0.8 | 4.71 | 0.88 | 4.26 | 4.86 | 0.6 | 4.74 | 0.48 | 4.96 | 0.7 |
Michael Wacha has a .340 BABIP that I can’t really argue with right now, but I’d guess his LD rate regresses. Let’s get some popups though young man! His 60.5 LOB% should improve and bring his ERA closer to his estimators.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.299 | 0.284 | -0.015 | 0.185 | 6.3% | 92.6% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.304 | 0.300 | -0.004 | 0.263 | 12.1% | 92.2% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.319 | 0.304 | -0.015 | 0.209 | 4.8% | 85.0% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.288 | 0.234 | -0.054 | 0.201 | 13.9% | 85.5% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.262 | 0.242 | -0.02 | 0.205 | 10.9% | 82.0% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.309 | 0.354 | 0.045 | 0.201 | 9.5% | 88.0% |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 0.291 | 0.241 | -0.05 | 0.228 | 8.5% | 84.1% |
| Edwin Escobar | ARI | 0.318 | 0.588 | 0.27 | 0.375 | 0.0% | 85.2% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.326 | 0.329 | 0.003 | 0.234 | 8.3% | 87.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.298 | 0.260 | -0.038 | 0.181 | 9.9% | 83.6% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0.304 | 0.287 | -0.017 | 0.176 | 16.7% | 90.7% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.246 | 0.268 | 0.022 | 0.182 | 7.3% | 90.1% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.292 | 0.266 | -0.026 | 0.165 | 4.8% | 86.5% |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.296 | 0.282 | -0.014 | 0.217 | 10.3% | 86.4% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.286 | 0.293 | 0.007 | 0.228 | 9.8% | 81.5% |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.280 | 0.254 | -0.026 | 0.215 | 10.6% | 92.1% |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.302 | 0.292 | -0.01 | 0.211 | 10.5% | 82.6% |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 0.306 | 0.276 | -0.03 | 0.215 | 4.1% | 94.4% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.312 | 0.321 | 0.009 | 0.2 | 8.0% | 89.2% |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.273 | 0.289 | 0.016 | 0.177 | 3.8% | 91.3% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.288 | 0.264 | -0.024 | 0.178 | 0.0% | 90.0% |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.291 | 0.228 | -0.063 | 0.186 | 6.1% | 91.7% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.288 | 0.340 | 0.052 | 0.262 | 1.8% | 86.9% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.290 | 0.295 | 0.005 | 0.242 | 11.1% | 86.5% |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 0.309 | 0.346 | 0.037 | 0.233 | 9.1% | 86.2% |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 0.288 | 0.306 | 0.018 | 0.255 | 9.4% | 87.2% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 0.293 | 0.327 | 0.034 | 0.191 | 11.0% | 83.6% |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.279 | 0.303 | 0.024 | 0.193 | 9.2% | 83.7% |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 0.295 | 0.250 | -0.045 | 0.212 | 0.0% | 75.5% |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 0.297 | 0.242 | -0.055 | 0.181 | 9.3% | 93.0% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
We’re going to do it a little differently tonight because it’s not just that Kershaw is so far ahead of everyone that he laps the group twice, it’s that none of these other pitchers even appear usable at current cost. Maybe one or two might crack the back end of the fourth tier. I’m mostly focusing on your 2nd starter on DraftKings since it makes little economic sense to fade Kershaw tonight. He might even be expected to do that tonight. Is there actually a scenario on this board where you see someone else breaking through to an even equal point total? Anything’s possible in a given night of baseball, but it doesn’t seem likely. The money you save pivoting off Kershaw is probably going to have to hit a lot of HRs to make up the gap in your pitching score.
So, we’ve had to play a little bit of economics. There are pitchers we’re omitting tonight because you couldn’t possibly afford them plus Kershaw or probably shouldn’t try anyway and they were mentioned above. It’s basically anyone above $8K.
The One and Only
Clayton Kershaw (1) is facing the freaking Braves!
Other Decisions To Be Made
Josh Tomlin allows too many HRs and hard contact in the air (38.0 Hard%, 1.11 GB/FB), but there shouldn’t be a walk while he’s in the game and the Royals lineup has been depleted. You should be able to squeeze him in for $6.7K on DraftKings and this would likely be one of my top two choices to complement.
Nate Karns – The main concern is a career 14.4 HR/FB in a tough park, but he’s been keeping the ball in the park lately and is down to an 11.3 HR/FB this year. If you could find a way to squeeze his $6.9K DK salary into a lineup with Kershaw, he may have the most upside of the below $8K guys.
Michael Wacha was my immediate thought for a secondary punt option on DraftKings at $5.7K, but looking at the numbers and how little San Francisco strikes out, it doesn’t look nearly as good. I’d expect he’d be the popular secondary pitcher among casual players as well, though he’s so cheap it still merits consideration if that’s how the rest of your lineup shakes out.
Andrew Cashner is probably the worst pitcher from a statistical standpoint that I’ve ever included in this section, but he’s at home against the Rockies and $5K on DraftKings may help you afford Kershaw. Maybe he can get through five innings on ground balls without too much damage.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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