Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, May 20th
Seven of tonight’s games take place on the night slate, so we’ll cover those pitchers, while listing all 30. We’ve covered a lot of ground in this week’s introductions, including BABIP and regression the last couple of days. On Saturdays, we like to keep it shorter and get right to the action.
I do have to take a second to congratulate Joe Sorensen though. Yesterday, I mentioned our Twitter conversation about Alex Wood. He called Trevor Bauer for more strikeouts than Wood yesterday and was correct. If we’ve finally found someone who can figure out Trevor Bauer on a start to start basis, I may need a guest writer for days when he starts.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 0.7 | 4.56 | 5.28 | 29.4% | 0.98 | 4.88 | 5.87 | DET | 115 | 103 | 121 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 11 | 5.77 | 3.03 | 35.9% | 1.04 | 4.98 | KAN | 66 | 61 | 111 | |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | -4.1 | 4.91 | 4.32 | 38.8% | 0.91 | 5.56 | 4.24 | NYM | 76 | 93 | 97 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 2.6 | 4.79 | 6.13 | 46.4% | 1.02 | 4.25 | 5.12 | CIN | 99 | 100 | 95 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 5.4 | 4.38 | 5.86 | 42.7% | 1 | 3.73 | 5.67 | WAS | 108 | 111 | 99 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -10.2 | 3.69 | 6.22 | 55.5% | 0.98 | 3.6 | 3.83 | SFO | 75 | 73 | 96 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -5.8 | 4.51 | 5.26 | 38.1% | 0.96 | 4.63 | 5.18 | CHC | 91 | 86 | 89 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 4.8 | 4.62 | 5.74 | 33.5% | 0.89 | 4.76 | 4.23 | LOS | 129 | 118 | 119 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.4 | 3.65 | 5.39 | 45.2% | 0.93 | 3.94 | 5.99 | OAK | 115 | 91 | 121 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 8.5 | 3.98 | 5.87 | 35.3% | 1.04 | 4.69 | MIN | 101 | 107 | 92 | |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -5.8 | 4.05 | 5.81 | 51.4% | 0.97 | 3.77 | 5.21 | PHI | 84 | 96 | 86 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 3.4 | 3.41 | 6.55 | 53.1% | 0.96 | 3.43 | 4.93 | MIL | 97 | 99 | 114 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 2.1 | 4 | 6.52 | 42.8% | 0.98 | 3.8 | 2.64 | STL | 98 | 104 | 108 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | -1.3 | 4.26 | 4.74 | 42.6% | 0.89 | 3.88 | 4.8 | MIA | 97 | 106 | 66 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.3 | 3.73 | 6.6 | 33.6% | 0.98 | 3.91 | 4.64 | TEX | 83 | 102 | 141 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -3.4 | 3.97 | 5.73 | 44.2% | 1.02 | 4.06 | 3.75 | TOR | 91 | 86 | 115 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -9.1 | 3.82 | 5.81 | 60.9% | 0.91 | 4.05 | 2.33 | ARI | 73 | 110 | 144 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0 | 3.68 | 6.37 | 48.7% | 0.96 | 3.87 | 3.92 | TAM | 116 | 117 | 145 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | -0.1 | 3.98 | 5.47 | 44.4% | 0.96 | 3.83 | 4.2 | NYY | 109 | 127 | 133 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -6 | 2.85 | 6.79 | 33.9% | 1 | 3.67 | 2.46 | ATL | 92 | 92 | 112 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | -2.4 | 4.27 | 5. | 47.6% | 1.02 | 4.6 | 5.46 | BAL | 90 | 99 | 121 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | -8.8 | 4.88 | 4.25 | 38.4% | 0.94 | 4.55 | 5.68 | HOU | 118 | 123 | 116 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | -3.5 | 4.18 | 5.66 | 41.2% | 0.94 | 3.67 | 5.29 | CLE | 94 | 105 | 119 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | -2.7 | 4.97 | 5.24 | 49.9% | 0.89 | 5.41 | 5.76 | SEA | 116 | 113 | 76 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -5 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 0.443 | 0.91 | 3.27 | 5.57 | SDG | 73 | 61 | 72 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -7.8 | 4.02 | 5.63 | 0.467 | 0.93 | 4.14 | 5.28 | BOS | 112 | 98 | 72 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 20.7 | 4.61 | 5.17 | 0.365 | 1.02 | 4.93 | 5.06 | COL | 81 | 73 | 90 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 11.1 | 3.75 | 5.45 | 0.356 | 0.97 | 4.17 | 3.51 | PIT | 92 | 78 | 91 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 5.3 | 4.95 | 5.39 | 0.465 | 0.89 | 5.11 | 5.24 | CHW | 81 | 79 | 110 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | -4.1 | 4.1 | 5.44 | 0.505 | 0.91 | 4.11 | 4.38 | ANA | 70 | 92 | 118 |
Carlos Martinez has increased his walk rate over the last month to where it’s been at least 50% in five straight starts after it was below that in each of his first three, while he’s also struck out at least seven in six of eight now. The Giants are a favorable opponent, who fail to hit for much power. A lot of that may be due to an extremely power suppressing home park, but St Louis has similar properties, at least until the weather warms. This should be one of the best spots on the slate.
Jeff Samardzija has struck out 28 of his last 75 batters. Ten of the remaining 47 batters have scored as he just can’t strand runners this season (59.4%). Make no mistake, a .343 BABIP isn’t helping and that’s what you get with a line drive rate above 30%, but both his exit velocity (86.4 mph) and 3.5 Hard-Soft% are strong marks. There should be some confidence that this turns around. The Cardinals are a fairly neutral matchup in this spot.
Luis Perdomo has a 70.5 GB% and struck out a career high nine Brewers in his last start to bring his strikeout rate up to 23.9%. He’s now had a SwStr above 11% in four of his last five starts. While the Diamondbacks are one of the hottest offenses in the league (23.9 HR/FB, 31.6 Hard-Soft% over the last week), they’ve faced the Mets bullpen in Arizona followed by Jered Weaver last night. They have an enormous 27.2 K% on the road and 23.6 K% vs RHP. Perdomo has been a slider machine facing a predominantly RH lineup. RHBs have a .236 wOBA, 21.4 K-BB%, 76.4 GB%, and 1.8 Hard-Soft% against him this year.
Robbie Ray has a slider batters can’t touch when he puts it over the plate, but apparently, he’s been hanging it quite often too. This helps explain the 30% strikeout rate and 50.5 Hard%. The issue is made even worse by a 13.2 BB%. I think 30% is the strikeout rate at which you can really say “screw everything else” in daily fantasy, especially on a shorter slate. The significant park upgrade and absolute best matchup on the board for the entire day, not only the night slate, diminish some major flaws.
Zack Wheeler has above average strikeout (21.9%) and ground ball rates (50.5%). These are great signs, especially when he can control his secondary stuff and refrain from walks (eight of 15 walks in two back-to-back starts this year). His hard hit rate has been at least one-third of balls in play in four of his last five starts now, which is a problem, but he’ll be facing a predominantly RH lineup tonight. He’s strangely struck out LHBs at nearly twice the rate of RHBs (29.9% vs 16.1%), but kept RHBs on the ground 55.1% of the time with a hard hit rate exactly 16 points lower. The Angels have been awful on the road and have just an 86 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Dan Straily (.181 – 71.8% – 9.4) has started eight games with 35% of his strikeouts in one start. He’s failed to strike out more than five in any of his other seven.
Julio Urias (.246 – 75.2% – 4.8) can be forgiven for failing in Colorado, though that’s not really been a given this year. However, he’s struck out more batters than he’s walked in just one of his four starts so far. This is certainly not a condemnation of his talent, but more of his mechanics or whatever is causing his current issues (0.0 K-BB%). This is a kid who had a 24.4 K-BB% at AAA last year and 15.8% in the majors as a 19 year-old.
A.J. Griffin (.209 – 87.8% – 12.7)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Justin Verlander is probably a bit over-priced and facing one of the hottest offenses in the majors (7.1 K-BB% over the last week). The good news is that his SwStr has been in double digits in each of his last two starts, but he now has an 11.8 BB%, 27.1 Hard-Soft%, and 10.2% Barrels/BBE.
Alex Meyer is at least beginning to fulfill his strikeout potential at the major league level (14 of his last 46 batters with a 10.6 SwStr%), but still has a 16.3 BB%. The Mets have just a 9.7 K-BB% vs RHP and his cost has risen fairly quickly.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 21.2% | 8.5% | Road | 22.6% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 7.3% |
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 17.0% | 15.3% | Home | 27.8% | 16.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 24.3% | 15.6% | Road | 24.2% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 15.2% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 14.4% | 7.0% | Road | 15.3% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 12.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 15.7% | 4.2% | Home | 20.5% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 4.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.2% | 8.4% | Home | 21.5% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 11.5% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.1% | 7.4% | Road | 19.0% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 8.3% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 20.8% | 9.6% | Road | 21.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 4.8% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 26.8% | 9.1% | Road | 25.1% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 14.7% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.5% | 7.8% | Road | 22.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.0% | 5.0% | Home | 17.7% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 5.4% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.3% | 7.5% | Home | 28.2% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 8.2% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 20.4% | 5.9% | Road | 21.5% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 28.8% | 0.0% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 22.6% | 10.0% | Home | 23.8% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 7.3% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.2% | 6.9% | Home | 28.7% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 24.6% | 14.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.5% | 6.7% | Home | 20.5% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 6.3% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 17.3% | 7.0% | Home | 15.6% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 8.3% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 20.7% | 4.5% | Road | 17.7% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 4.4% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 20.6% | 6.3% | Home | 22.2% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 12.8% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.5% | 5.3% | Road | 30.2% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 3.5% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.4% | 9.5% | Road | 21.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 12.2% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 22.3% | 13.9% | Road | 22.6% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 22.0% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.3% | 7.2% | Home | 20.6% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 12.8% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 11.2% | 7.2% | Road | 9.1% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 9.8% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 26.1% | 9.8% | Road | 31.0% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 17.8% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.9% | 7.5% | Home | 21.5% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 22.7% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 18.1% | 7.0% | Home | 21.1% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 13.8% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 26.3% | 8.9% | Road | 21.8% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 5.9% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.6% | 9.9% | Home | 15.9% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 9.9% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 21.9% | 9.4% | Home | 23.1% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 10.2% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | Home | 20.3% | 10.5% | RH | 22.2% | 10.6% | L7Days | 19.6% | 11.8% |
| Royals | Road | 22.3% | 6.6% | LH | 19.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 16.9% | 6.5% |
| Mets | Home | 19.2% | 9.1% | RH | 19.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.9% | 8.1% |
| Reds | Home | 21.6% | 8.1% | RH | 20.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.5% | 9.9% | RH | 19.8% | 10.0% | L7Days | 17.3% | 8.5% |
| Giants | Road | 20.6% | 8.3% | RH | 19.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.1% | 6.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.5% | 10.9% | RH | 21.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.6% | 12.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.4% | 10.2% | RH | 20.8% | 10.3% | L7Days | 21.8% | 11.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.9% | 8.4% | LH | 24.7% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.8% |
| Twins | Home | 21.1% | 11.7% | RH | 21.7% | 11.0% | L7Days | 20.5% | 11.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.8% | 7.7% | RH | 22.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.0% | 8.1% | RH | 24.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.7% | 9.8% |
| Cardinals | Home | 22.0% | 10.7% | RH | 20.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 24.0% | 9.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.2% | 6.1% | LH | 20.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.7% | 7.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 24.8% | 8.9% | RH | 21.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.3% | 10.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.8% | 8.5% | RH | 20.8% | 7.3% | L7Days | 16.7% | 9.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 27.2% | 9.1% | RH | 23.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.3% | 11.2% |
| Rays | Home | 24.9% | 9.8% | RH | 26.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 32.9% | 9.5% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.5% | 9.7% | RH | 21.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.6% |
| Braves | Home | 20.0% | 9.4% | RH | 20.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.1% | 9.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 19.4% | 8.0% | RH | 21.6% | 6.6% | L7Days | 21.4% | 6.9% |
| Astros | Home | 18.0% | 8.0% | RH | 18.7% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.2% | 8.2% |
| Indians | Road | 19.5% | 9.7% | RH | 21.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.8% | 8.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.7% | 10.5% | RH | 20.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.7% | 9.9% |
| Padres | Home | 22.9% | 9.2% | LH | 21.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 26.1% | 10.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 17.3% | 9.8% | LH | 14.5% | 11.7% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 25.0% | 7.8% | RH | 22.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 24.0% | 7.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.8% | 10.0% | RH | 18.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 13.7% | 10.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.5% | 5.6% | RH | 22.8% | 5.9% | L7Days | 20.1% | 6.8% |
| Angels | Road | 22.7% | 8.0% | RH | 20.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.9% | 11.7% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 37.8% | 15.8% | 18.8% | 2017 | 36.7% | 12.7% | 14.2% | Road | 37.1% | 13.4% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 30.8% | 11.1% | 5.2% | 2017 | 25.9% | 15.4% | -7.4% | Home | 25.0% | 20.0% | -5.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 34.6% | 12.5% | 16.9% | 2017 | 28.0% | 11.1% | 8.0% | Road | 35.7% | 12.0% | 19.6% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 15.4% | 28.0% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 25.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 2017 | 25.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | Road | 23.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 15.4% | 17.1% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 33.2% | 11.2% | 15.7% | 2017 | 37.1% | 12.7% | 16.6% | Home | 34.1% | 11.5% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 14.3% | 13.7% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 2017 | 32.1% | 18.4% | 10.7% | Home | 27.4% | 14.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 30.0% | 15.6% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.6% | 12.8% | 17.1% | 2017 | 37.0% | 3.8% | 20.0% | Road | 35.5% | 13.6% | 20.2% | L14 Days | 54.3% | 5.0% | 45.7% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.4% | 11.5% | 15.9% | 2017 | 35.5% | 9.4% | 11.9% | Road | 31.7% | 15.6% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 0.0% | 13.4% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.5% | 14.0% | 9.6% | 2017 | 35.1% | 18.9% | 11.4% | Road | 30.7% | 11.8% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 20.0% | 20.9% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 36.5% | 13.4% | 19.7% | 2017 | 35.8% | 10.6% | 17.9% | Road | 33.4% | 14.2% | 13.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.4% | 14.2% | 15.4% | 2017 | 32.4% | 9.8% | 17.1% | Home | 32.4% | 13.7% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 16.7% | 23.9% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.9% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 2017 | 31.8% | 16.0% | 8.3% | Home | 22.3% | 9.5% | -1.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% | 16.6% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 29.1% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 2017 | 27.1% | 15.9% | 3.5% | Road | 29.3% | 15.4% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 7.1% | 9.5% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 2017 | 25.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | Home | 34.1% | 0.0% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 10.0% | 9.7% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 2017 | 38.0% | 7.6% | 27.0% | Home | 31.8% | 10.1% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 44.1% | 13.3% | 32.3% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.2% | 14.6% | 10.1% | 2017 | 32.9% | 13.7% | 12.3% | Home | 28.7% | 12.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 9.1% | 26.5% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 32.3% | 20.7% | 15.7% | 2017 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 7.4% | Home | 32.4% | 19.4% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 25.0% | 14.8% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.6% | 15.5% | 13.1% | 2017 | 30.4% | 21.3% | 12.2% | Road | 29.5% | 10.4% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 41.7% | 21.2% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 34.8% | 11.9% | 17.7% | 2017 | 40.2% | 17.1% | 25.0% | Home | 36.7% | 12.4% | 20.8% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 12.5% | 27.6% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.2% | 12.0% | 7.9% | 2017 | 24.8% | 11.1% | 3.9% | Road | 30.8% | 12.9% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 37.1% | 15.4% | 14.2% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.5% | 14.3% | 14.5% | 2017 | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | 36.6% | 23.5% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 29.7% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 2017 | 19.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | 30.3% | 16.2% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 33.3% | 15.8% | 14.9% | 2017 | 35.1% | 39.0% | 18.0% | Home | 35.8% | 17.7% | 18.1% | L14 Days | 42.4% | 26.7% | 27.2% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.6% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 2017 | 29.4% | 13.3% | 3.5% | Road | 28.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 25.0% | 6.2% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 37.7% | 12.9% | 22.4% | 2017 | 50.5% | 18.4% | 37.9% | Road | 37.4% | 15.1% | 21.6% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 25.0% | 30.8% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.5% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 2017 | 33.3% | 9.5% | 9.7% | Home | 32.0% | 9.5% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 20.0% | -10.0% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 35.8% | 15.0% | 22.6% | 2017 | 37.0% | 18.4% | 25.9% | Home | 33.5% | 16.9% | 18.9% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.6% | 13.7% | 14.1% | 2017 | 34.6% | 21.1% | 20.6% | Road | 32.5% | 14.5% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 14.3% | 25.7% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 26.9% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 2017 | 29.9% | 11.9% | 12.2% | Home | 27.0% | 11.6% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 17.6% | 16.6% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 34.9% | 15.6% | 12.9% | 2017 | 34.9% | 15.6% | 12.9% | Home | 36.7% | 19.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 20.0% | 29.4% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | Home | 50.3% | 12.0% | 36.5% | RH | 43.5% | 11.6% | 28.4% | L7Days | 50.0% | 16.4% | 38.4% |
| Royals | Road | 29.6% | 11.4% | 8.8% | LH | 26.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | L7Days | 28.2% | 13.3% | 12.1% |
| Mets | Home | 31.3% | 8.2% | 10.3% | RH | 33.1% | 11.5% | 14.6% | L7Days | 38.8% | 15.4% | 24.2% |
| Reds | Home | 28.1% | 14.8% | 7.1% | RH | 28.7% | 12.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 25.6% | 13.0% | 7.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.1% | 14.9% | 13.2% | RH | 32.0% | 14.7% | 14.8% | L7Days | 34.9% | 13.0% | 15.6% |
| Giants | Road | 30.1% | 9.5% | 11.3% | RH | 27.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 27.2% | 12.2% | 3.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 28.2% | 12.4% | 10.8% | RH | 29.4% | 10.9% | 12.6% | L7Days | 34.5% | 14.9% | 19.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 35.3% | 15.8% | 22.1% | RH | 34.9% | 13.5% | 20.3% | L7Days | 34.3% | 14.3% | 21.2% |
| Athletics | Home | 34.4% | 17.2% | 20.6% | LH | 33.1% | 10.0% | 15.6% | L7Days | 35.2% | 16.9% | 19.9% |
| Twins | Home | 33.0% | 10.8% | 16.5% | RH | 33.2% | 14.1% | 17.7% | L7Days | 27.6% | 9.3% | 15.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.7% | 11.8% | 8.2% | RH | 29.5% | 11.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 28.0% | 8.8% | 5.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 29.8% | 18.1% | 12.0% | RH | 34.4% | 19.4% | 16.0% | L7Days | 36.8% | 12.5% | 18.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 29.1% | 11.4% | 9.1% | RH | 30.5% | 12.8% | 11.0% | L7Days | 37.2% | 12.0% | 20.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.2% | 14.2% | 10.1% | LH | 31.3% | 20.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 36.3% | 12.5% | 11.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 29.6% | 14.8% | 8.7% | RH | 33.1% | 15.5% | 13.6% | L7Days | 37.5% | 11.3% | 17.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.3% | 15.2% | 10.9% | RH | 30.2% | 13.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 30.7% | 16.2% | 11.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 29.8% | 14.6% | 10.3% | RH | 38.1% | 17.3% | 22.9% | L7Days | 46.8% | 23.9% | 31.6% |
| Rays | Home | 34.6% | 13.9% | 14.8% | RH | 35.4% | 17.3% | 17.3% | L7Days | 39.6% | 27.7% | 29.5% |
| Yankees | Road | 28.1% | 11.8% | 9.4% | RH | 30.1% | 17.8% | 9.8% | L7Days | 28.0% | 14.8% | 8.1% |
| Braves | Home | 30.7% | 13.5% | 13.0% | RH | 30.7% | 11.0% | 12.2% | L7Days | 31.4% | 11.3% | 14.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 27.7% | 11.3% | 7.4% | RH | 30.8% | 14.2% | 11.6% | L7Days | 38.5% | 19.2% | 19.8% |
| Astros | Home | 28.7% | 16.6% | 8.6% | RH | 31.7% | 13.9% | 12.7% | L7Days | 32.3% | 15.4% | 13.7% |
| Indians | Road | 36.9% | 9.8% | 18.9% | RH | 34.7% | 12.1% | 18.3% | L7Days | 35.2% | 15.9% | 19.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.1% | 11.2% | 8.4% | RH | 30.3% | 12.2% | 12.1% | L7Days | 26.1% | 12.1% | 1.2% |
| Padres | Home | 26.6% | 10.9% | 3.1% | LH | 27.7% | 9.4% | 5.1% | L7Days | 31.9% | 9.6% | 10.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 34.9% | 11.4% | 16.7% | LH | 35.6% | 6.0% | 12.2% | L7Days | 28.2% | 11.8% | 11.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 32.4% | 12.0% | 12.1% | RH | 30.9% | 12.5% | 10.1% | L7Days | 29.3% | 15.4% | 13.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 28.3% | 10.3% | 7.3% | RH | 29.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 33.1% | 14.0% | 14.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 27.5% | 12.5% | 9.6% | RH | 27.2% | 12.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 29.3% | 14.8% | 10.1% |
| Angels | Road | 30.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | RH | 29.2% | 13.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 37.4% | 12.3% | 16.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 21.7% | 9.3% | 2.33 | 18.0% | 9.0% | 2.00 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 21.7% | 9.4% | 2.31 | 37.5% | 14.3% | 2.62 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 24.4% | 7.9% | 3.09 | 24.4% | 7.9% | 3.09 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 14.4% | 5.8% | 2.48 | 11.8% | 5.2% | 2.27 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 14.2% | 5.0% | 2.84 | 10.2% | 4.4% | 2.32 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 27.0% | 11.3% | 2.39 | 25.2% | 9.7% | 2.60 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.13 | 19.0% | 9.3% | 2.04 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 23.3% | 11.1% | 2.10 | 26.3% | 11.4% | 2.31 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 26.0% | 9.4% | 2.77 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 2.26 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 21.8% | 9.4% | 2.32 | 17.9% | 6.8% | 2.63 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 15.4% | 6.9% | 2.23 | 18.4% | 7.9% | 2.33 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 25.0% | 10.0% | 2.50 | 22.8% | 10.8% | 2.11 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 28.6% | 11.3% | 2.53 | 28.7% | 10.5% | 2.73 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 12.9% | 9.3% | 1.39 | 12.9% | 9.3% | 1.39 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 23.1% | 9.0% | 2.57 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 2.65 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 15.5% | 9.0% | 1.72 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 1.83 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 23.9% | 10.4% | 2.30 | 26.1% | 11.5% | 2.27 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 17.7% | 12.0% | 1.48 | 17.2% | 10.9% | 1.58 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 21.8% | 10.1% | 2.16 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 2.33 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 32.6% | 15.5% | 2.10 | 33.1% | 15.8% | 2.09 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | 14.3% | 8.0% | 1.79 | 14.3% | 8.0% | 1.79 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 26.8% | 11.7% | 2.29 | 26.8% | 11.7% | 2.29 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 20.6% | 10.6% | 1.94 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 2.17 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 7.6% | 6.0% | 1.27 | 7.6% | 6.0% | 1.27 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 30.0% | 13.3% | 2.26 | 28.9% | 13.5% | 2.14 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 26.8% | 14.2% | 1.89 | 25.0% | 12.4% | 2.02 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 22.4% | 11.1% | 2.02 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 1.93 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 23.5% | 10.3% | 2.28 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 1.88 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 16.2% | 8.2% | 1.98 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 2.21 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 21.9% | 9.2% | 2.38 | 20.4% | 7.5% | 2.72 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 3.15 | 4.31 | 1.16 | 4.87 | 1.72 | 4.82 | 1.67 | 7.61 | 4.46 | 2.37 | 4.79 | 2.42 | 5.38 | 3.01 | 5.09 | 2.72 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 5.79 | 5.53 | -0.26 | 6.14 | 0.35 | 6.57 | 0.78 | 3.87 | -1.92 | 10.13 | 4.02 | -6.11 | 4.45 | -5.68 | 11.66 | 1.53 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 5.59 | 4.96 | -0.63 | 4.77 | -0.82 | 4.54 | -1.05 | 5.15 | -0.44 | 5.59 | 4.96 | -0.63 | 4.77 | -0.82 | 4.54 | -1.05 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 3.31 | 4.79 | 1.48 | 4.69 | 1.38 | 4.49 | 1.18 | 7.67 | 4.36 | 3.9 | 5.28 | 1.38 | 5.27 | 1.37 | 5.41 | 1.51 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 6.8 | 4.9 | -1.9 | 5.07 | -1.73 | 5.01 | -1.79 | 8.77 | 1.97 | 8.44 | 5.24 | -3.2 | 5.31 | -3.13 | 5.4 | -3.04 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.88 | 3.64 | -0.24 | 3.43 | -0.45 | 3.98 | 0.1 | 2.44 | -1.44 | 4.06 | 3.57 | -0.49 | 3.27 | -0.79 | 4.59 | 0.53 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 3.43 | 4.4 | 0.97 | 4.44 | 1.01 | 3.02 | -0.41 | 5.92 | 2.49 | 4.73 | 4.69 | -0.04 | 4.82 | 0.09 | 3.15 | -1.58 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 3.56 | 4.43 | 0.87 | 4.8 | 1.24 | 4.22 | 0.66 | 3.10 | -0.46 | 3.07 | 3.82 | 0.75 | 4.3 | 1.23 | 3.55 | 0.48 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 5.29 | 3.83 | -1.46 | 3.82 | -1.47 | 4.66 | -0.63 | 4.75 | -0.54 | 5.32 | 4.44 | -0.88 | 4.42 | -0.9 | 5.24 | -0.08 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 3.03 | 4.53 | 1.5 | 4.87 | 1.84 | 4.47 | 1.44 | 4.77 | 1.74 | 3.78 | 4.82 | 1.04 | 5.19 | 1.41 | 5.98 | 2.2 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 2.48 | 3.99 | 1.51 | 3.74 | 1.26 | 3.35 | 0.87 | 5.07 | 2.59 | 2.62 | 3.8 | 1.18 | 3.64 | 1.02 | 3.53 | 0.91 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 5.44 | 3.61 | -1.83 | 3.74 | -1.7 | 4.18 | -1.26 | 4.36 | -1.08 | 7.27 | 3.84 | -3.43 | 3.87 | -3.4 | 4.42 | -2.85 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 5.26 | 2.98 | -2.28 | 2.8 | -2.46 | 3.11 | -2.15 | 2.60 | -2.66 | 4.76 | 2.85 | -1.91 | 2.82 | -1.94 | 2.42 | -2.34 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 3.43 | 5.91 | 2.48 | 5.4 | 1.97 | 4.32 | 0.89 | 5.37 | 1.94 | 3.43 | 5.91 | 2.48 | 5.4 | 1.97 | 4.32 | 0.89 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.47 | 4.6 | 0.13 | 4.93 | 0.46 | 3.97 | -0.5 | 2.85 | -1.62 | 3.77 | 5.08 | 1.31 | 5.42 | 1.65 | 3.91 | 0.14 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 7.19 | 5.18 | -2.01 | 5.29 | -1.9 | 5.41 | -1.78 | 7.58 | 0.39 | 7.15 | 4.74 | -2.41 | 4.86 | -2.29 | 6.22 | -0.93 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 4.19 | 2.86 | -1.33 | 2.93 | -1.26 | 2.95 | -1.24 | 3.43 | -0.76 | 3.41 | 2.78 | -0.63 | 2.84 | -0.57 | 2.59 | -0.82 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 5.8 | 4.18 | -1.62 | 4.25 | -1.55 | 5.37 | -0.43 | 4.37 | -1.43 | 4.65 | 3.81 | -0.84 | 3.79 | -0.86 | 5.04 | 0.39 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 3.18 | 4.22 | 1.04 | 3.97 | 0.79 | 4.45 | 1.27 | 3.49 | 0.31 | 3.07 | 4.3 | 1.23 | 4 | 0.93 | 4.33 | 1.26 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.8 | 2.85 | 0.05 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 3.02 | 0.22 | 1.92 | -0.88 | 3.6 | 2.64 | -0.96 | 3.12 | -0.48 | 3.7 | 0.1 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | 6.1 | 5.45 | -0.65 | 5.77 | -0.33 | 4.3 | -1.8 | 7.90 | 1.80 | 6.1 | 5.46 | -0.64 | 5.77 | -0.33 | 4.3 | -1.8 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 2.61 | 5.68 | 3.07 | 4.67 | 2.06 | 3.52 | 0.91 | 1.80 | -0.81 | 2.61 | 5.68 | 3.07 | 4.67 | 2.06 | 3.52 | 0.91 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 5.75 | 4.34 | -1.41 | 4.38 | -1.37 | 8.23 | 2.48 | 6.95 | 1.20 | 5.88 | 4.22 | -1.66 | 4.34 | -1.54 | 8.88 | 3 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 5.7 | 6.1 | 0.4 | 6.03 | 0.33 | 6.08 | 0.38 | 5.13 | -0.57 | 5.7 | 6.11 | 0.41 | 6.03 | 0.33 | 6.08 | 0.38 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 4.57 | 3.9 | -0.67 | 3.64 | -0.93 | 4.23 | -0.34 | 3.46 | -1.11 | 6.33 | 3.78 | -2.55 | 3.68 | -2.65 | 4.52 | -1.81 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 5.52 | 4.06 | -1.46 | 4.08 | -1.44 | 3.75 | -1.77 | 2.19 | -3.33 | 5.54 | 4.46 | -1.08 | 4.29 | -1.25 | 3.73 | -1.81 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 5.27 | 3.99 | -1.28 | 4.47 | -0.8 | 5.45 | 0.18 | 5.77 | 0.50 | 5.79 | 4.33 | -1.46 | 4.71 | -1.08 | 5.74 | -0.05 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 5.63 | 4.26 | -1.37 | 4.24 | -1.39 | 5.28 | -0.35 | 4.00 | -1.63 | 4.6 | 4.61 | 0.01 | 4.49 | -0.11 | 4.98 | 0.38 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 4.53 | 4.65 | 0.12 | 4.37 | -0.16 | 4.24 | -0.29 | 4.19 | -0.34 | 3.64 | 4.42 | 0.78 | 4.18 | 0.54 | 4.02 | 0.38 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 3.76 | 4.1 | 0.34 | 3.88 | 0.12 | 4.16 | 0.4 | 5.06 | 1.30 | 2.66 | 4.43 | 1.77 | 4.16 | 1.5 | 4.52 | 1.86 |
Jeff Samardzija seems to be having some launch angle issues. His enormous line drive rate comes with very little hard contact. His BABIP and strand rate should balance out.
Luis Perdomo retains his BABIP above .340 from last season (65.6 LOB%) despite weaker contact, more popups and a miniscule line drive rate. Last year, he may have profiled for a higher BABIP. This year, he certainly has not so far.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 0.278 | 0.209 | -0.069 | 30.6% | 0.133 | 20.0% | 84.5% | 87.1 | 8.20% | 5.80% | 98 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.267 | 0.360 | 0.093 | 37.0% | 0.148 | 15.4% | 80.0% | 88.4 | 11.10% | 6.50% | 27 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 0.279 | 0.313 | 0.034 | 44.0% | 0.2 | 16.7% | 93.8% | 85.6 | 8.00% | 4.70% | 50 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.285 | 0.248 | -0.037 | 46.4% | 0.196 | 7.7% | 91.6% | 86.8 | 7.10% | 5.50% | 155 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 0.280 | 0.315 | 0.035 | 37.8% | 0.196 | 12.7% | 92.5% | 89.1 | 7.90% | 6.30% | 151 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.293 | 0.282 | -0.011 | 51.5% | 0.192 | 13.2% | 86.1% | 87.4 | 6.90% | 4.30% | 131 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.317 | 0.323 | 0.006 | 35.4% | 0.228 | 9.4% | 87.3% | 85 | 3.70% | 2.60% | 135 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 0.281 | 0.181 | -0.1 | 37.0% | 0.139 | 22.6% | 85.4% | 85.9 | 6.40% | 4.10% | 110 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.309 | 0.311 | 0.002 | 39.6% | 0.219 | 8.1% | 87.2% | 88.9 | 10.30% | 6.70% | 97 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.297 | 0.200 | -0.097 | 38.9% | 0.116 | 6.4% | 81.8% | 89.6 | 10.50% | 7.00% | 95 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.304 | 0.275 | -0.029 | 49.1% | 0.207 | 7.8% | 93.5% | 88.4 | 6.80% | 5.60% | 176 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.298 | 0.355 | 0.057 | 40.2% | 0.22 | 10.0% | 82.5% | 84.9 | 7.60% | 5.10% | 132 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.307 | 0.343 | 0.036 | 37.3% | 0.317 | 6.8% | 82.2% | 86.4 | 7.60% | 5.00% | 144 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 0.298 | 0.246 | -0.052 | 39.0% | 0.254 | 4.8% | 83.5% | 82.7 | 1.60% | 1.20% | 62 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.304 | 0.295 | -0.009 | 30.7% | 0.212 | 6.1% | 84.9% | 89.3 | 10.20% | 6.60% | 137 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.298 | 0.353 | 0.055 | 43.1% | 0.215 | 9.8% | 84.3% | 88.6 | 8.90% | 6.50% | 146 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.298 | 0.344 | 0.046 | 70.5% | 0.137 | 13.3% | 93.0% | 88 | 4.20% | 2.80% | 95 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.289 | 0.312 | 0.023 | 51.0% | 0.17 | 12.8% | 87.4% | 89.3 | 10.10% | 7.60% | 148 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.274 | 0.272 | -0.002 | 49.2% | 0.192 | 9.8% | 83.5% | 88.8 | 6.10% | 4.10% | 132 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.296 | 0.262 | -0.034 | 33.1% | 0.173 | 7.9% | 78.1% | 87.2 | 4.70% | 2.80% | 129 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | 0.305 | 0.333 | 0.028 | 45.5% | 0.273 | 22.2% | 86.0% | 88.2 | 3.00% | 2.00% | 33 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.305 | 0.190 | -0.115 | 40.0% | 0.25 | 0.0% | 80.4% | 82.5 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 21 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.278 | 0.229 | -0.049 | 50.9% | 0.118 | 4.9% | 83.9% | 86.7 | 11.70% | 8.10% | 111 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.264 | 0.235 | -0.029 | 42.9% | 0.214 | 10.0% | 88.6% | 87.9 | 7.10% | 5.70% | 85 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.286 | 0.308 | 0.022 | 42.1% | 0.224 | 7.9% | 81.0% | 89.8 | 9.90% | 5.60% | 111 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.277 | 0.243 | -0.034 | 62.0% | 0.085 | 4.8% | 85.1% | 87.7 | 5.60% | 3.10% | 72 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.271 | 0.284 | 0.013 | 36.7% | 0.152 | 2.6% | 83.3% | 88.1 | 8.80% | 6.00% | 80 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 0.287 | 0.273 | -0.014 | 43.9% | 0.206 | 10.5% | 83.0% | 89.7 | 9.30% | 6.00% | 107 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 0.285 | 0.289 | 0.004 | 49.0% | 0.221 | 14.3% | 86.0% | 87.9 | 6.10% | 4.60% | 147 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 0.319 | 0.260 | -0.059 | 50.5% | 0.202 | 6.3% | 85.3% | 88 | 7.30% | 5.00% | 109 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Luis Perdomo (3t) was a ground ball machine last year. Now he’s a bit of a RHB dominating strikeout machine too.
Value Tier Two
Robbie Ray (1t) does three things. He misses bats, walks batters, and gets hit hard. Two of those things are really bad for pitchers, especially at the rate he does them. The other is really awesome, especially at the rate at which he does it. It certainly helps that he has perhaps the greatest matchup a pitcher can as a lefty facing the Padres in Petco this year.
Value Tier Three
Jeff Samardzija (3t) has peripherals as strong as they’ve ever been. Unfortunately, he’s priced more towards those than his ERA because daily fantasy sites dig the strikeout. He’s struck out at least eight in five of eight starts.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Carlos Martinez (1t) is missing bats and generating ground balls. He retains some flaws with control issues and occasional contact harder than you’d like to see (particularly to LHBs), but he’s in a nice spot at home against San Francisco and has to be considered on this slate, even with the highest price on the board.
Zack Wheeler probably belongs in a fifth tier, but his upside is strong enough to speculate on for a seven game slate. If he can’t throw his non-fastball pitches for strikes when he needs to though, it could be a short night.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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