Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, May 27th
We’re going to cover all 15 games on Saturday. One reason would be due to the large afternoon slate. The other would be because there are very few strong candidates today and not many more that could even be considered useful. If it’s a little shorter than you’d like, it’s in an effort to get posted prior to first pitch of the day.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 11 | 5.62 | 4.03 | 41.0% | 1.04 | 5 | 5.26 | TAM | 101 | 86 | 97 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -10.2 | 4.33 | 5.88 | 44.8% | 1.39 | 4.19 | 5.34 | COL | 83 | 83 | 117 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | -1.3 | 4.33 | 5.01 | 41.2% | 0.89 | 4.04 | 3.13 | CHC | 87 | 91 | 132 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 0.4 | 5.37 | 4.55 | 35.7% | 1.13 | SEA | 90 | 74 | 59 | ||
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 20.7 | 5.19 | 5.13 | 33.1% | 0.96 | 6.73 | 6.31 | PHI | 98 | 87 | 31 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 4.3 | 4.99 | 4.83 | 47.7% | 0.98 | 6.06 | CHW | 102 | 82 | 145 | |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0 | 4.38 | 5.82 | 48.1% | 1.01 | 4.05 | 3.86 | OAK | 86 | 88 | 127 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -5.8 | 4.54 | 5.18 | 37.5% | 1.02 | 4.74 | 6.24 | ARI | 76 | 112 | 96 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -9.1 | 3.97 | 6.05 | 61.1% | 1.01 | 4.41 | 3.02 | WAS | 125 | 121 | 93 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -3.5 | 3.16 | 6.74 | 59.9% | 0.94 | 3.12 | -0.09 | BAL | 103 | 98 | 82 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | -8.8 | 3.72 | 5.71 | 44.4% | 1.09 | 3.57 | 3.16 | KAN | 74 | 81 | 98 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | -2.7 | 4.8 | 5.72 | 39.1% | 0.98 | 4.77 | 4.15 | DET | 88 | 106 | 88 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | -0.1 | 3.89 | 5.77 | 49.8% | 1.04 | 4.36 | 3.99 | MIN | 100 | 110 | 120 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -5.8 | 3.79 | 6.08 | 46.2% | 0.97 | 3.99 | 5.38 | NYM | 117 | 97 | 120 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | -0.1 | 4.11 | 5.65 | 35.7% | 1.04 | 4.47 | 3.65 | MIN | 100 | 110 | 120 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 8.5 | 3.91 | 5.25 | 36.0% | 1.09 | 4.28 | 5.47 | CLE | 102 | 87 | 98 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 11.1 | 4.02 | 6. | 39.8% | 0.96 | 4.13 | 3.52 | CIN | 98 | 101 | 111 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | -7.8 | 4.31 | 5.59 | 37.7% | 1.01 | 4.18 | NYY | 128 | 122 | 82 | |
| John Lackey | CHC | 3.4 | 3.78 | 6.48 | 43.6% | 0.89 | 3.52 | 4.72 | LOS | 121 | 112 | 84 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 2.6 | 4.79 | 5.69 | 62.8% | 1.39 | 3.8 | 5.87 | STL | 90 | 74 | 56 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -2.4 | 4.34 | 6.14 | 32.6% | 1.03 | 4.49 | 2.69 | TEX | 85 | 99 | 87 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 5.4 | 4.24 | 5.55 | 39.9% | 0.93 | 3.93 | 4.42 | SFO | 71 | 73 | 53 |
| Rob Whalen | SEA | 5.3 | 4.48 | 4.84 | 41.8% | 1.13 | 4 | BOS | 92 | 102 | 123 | |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | -6 | 3 | 6.19 | 42.1% | 1.01 | 3.4 | 3.56 | SDG | 79 | 83 | 78 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 2.1 | 5.12 | 5.88 | 0.492 | 0.93 | 4.35 | 4.44 | ATL | 94 | 110 | 108 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 4.8 | 4.46 | 5. | 0.481 | 0.94 | 4.94 | 4.34 | ANA | 79 | 92 | 113 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -3.4 | 4.15 | 5.77 | 0.491 | 0.94 | 4.06 | 4.91 | HOU | 114 | 95 | 102 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.7 | 3.39 | 6.07 | 0.395 | 1.03 | 3.23 | 3.59 | TOR | 89 | 91 | 119 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -5 | 3.5 | 6.56 | 0.471 | 1.02 | 3.39 | 2.46 | MIL | 98 | 97 | 61 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | -4.1 | 4.35 | 5.39 | 0.492 | 0.97 | 3.57 | 4.66 | PIT | 90 | 85 | 109 |
NOTE: There is an error in today’s chart, which skipped my attention until nearly done with the write-ups. I listed the wrong Ramirez (Erasmo instead of JC). JC Ramirez is probably fine on the afternoon slate (especially as an SP2). He’s been going deep into games, but his strikeouts have been down recently.
Brandon McCarthy has a 14.5 K-BB% and has been managing contact extremely well. He has just a 2.5 Hard-Soft% with the lowest rate of barrels on the board (2.5% per BBE, 1.8% per PA). He missed a couple of starts and has made just two in May, but had his second highest SwStr rate (9.3%) last time out, though a season low 75 pitches got him through six innings. The Cubs have been a below average offense on the road and against RHP, but do have a 27.5 HR/FB over the last week.
Buck Farmer was rolled over to the first game today after the DH was rescheduled. While noting that the White Sox are so terrible against RHP that the lineup can only really get worse (whatever adjustments they make for playing two), we should note Farmer’s 19.4 K-BB% at AAA this season as he’s cut down on his walks. He’s posted above average K-BB marks in AAA in the past and then walked the park upon promotion, but these are the best walk and K-BB marks above A ball. It blows my mind to see the White Sox have been the hottest offense in baseball over the last week (27.1 HR/FB).
Dallas Keuchel left his last start after five innings and missed his next one due to a neck issue. Keeping the ball down (and often out of the zone) better than any other pitcher, he’s returned to his dominance of 2015 with a 16.8 K% and 67.1 GB%. He has a -10.2 Hard-Soft% and slate low 83.9 mph aEV. Baltimore has been an average offense against LHP, which is a step up from recent seasons, but still strike out 24% of the time against them. A negative run environment may give the pitcher a slight advantage in this one.
Danny Salazar has a 32.9 K%, which keeps him in consideration no matter what else is going on. The problem is, there’s a lot of other stuff going on. That’s how you end up with an ERA over five with one-third of the batters you face being sent down via K. We’ll start with an 11% walk rate. Then we’ll move over to the 24.4 HR/FB with a nearly perfectly matching LD rate (24.6%). It’s not that he’s allowing a ton of hard contact (30.2%), but he’s not generating much weak contact (12.6%) and has the highest aEV (89.1 mph) on the board. When batters connect, they connect (11.2% Barrels/BBE). Kansas City is a favorable matchup. They don’t take walks (6.6% vs RHP), but do have a 39.5 Hard% over the last week, giving them league average hard contact rates for the first time I can remember.
Marco Estrada is missing bats and generating strikeouts at a career high rate. He put down 12 Orioles in his last start and has only failed to complete six innings once in his 10 starts. While his hard contact rate is below 30%, his 16.0 Soft% is a career low and has led to a few more HRs. He’s allowed five over his last four starts. As an extreme fly ball pitcher in a not so friendly park, this can be an issue. The Rangers are somewhat of a neutral matchup though.
Stephen Strasburg finally has a K% in line with his SwStr%. He’s generally been able to turn an 11 SwStr% into a nearly 30 K% in the past. Perhaps that’s who he is and this is the blip on the radar. Either way, he’s been a quality arm with most of his other stats in line with career norms. There’s been a bit of inconsistency this year though. He struck out 11 in his last start and has at least eight Ks in five of his nine starts, but five or fewer in the other four. Hosting the Padres (24.9 K% vs RHP) should be a great spot for him tonight.
Yu Darvish has been missing a few more bats recently and it’s good to see him nearing that elite strikeout rate again, but walks have been a major problem. He’s now up to 10.6% on the season, his highest rate since his rookie season, while he’s not really the type of guy that limits hard contact at a notable rate. He’s allowed eight HRs this season and is lucky that hasn’t turned into more runs with all the walks. That said, there’s plenty of upside here. While Toronto got their lineup back together last night, this is being written late enough that we already know a few key bats are missing today.
Zack Greinke has at least seven strikeouts in six straight starts and more than 10 in three of those, while his lowest SwStr rate (9.8%) was in his first start of the season. The velocity hasn’t returned. This is just a thing he’s doing by throwing more sliders. However, he has to be nearly perfect now with the velocity loss and has allowed 10 HRs. Milwaukee has a 24.0 K% vs RHP, but also a 19.0 HR/FB.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Jason Vargas (.268 – 82.1% – 5.7) has not held his early season strikeout rate, but hasn’t gone back to old ways entirely either. He’s only had a SwStr rate below 9.8% once this season. He’s really only had one poor start against the Yankees and has not necessarily avoided hard contact, but has not combined them with ideal launch angles for hitters (3.9% Barrels/BBE). The matchup is tricky. Cleveland has a good offense in a positive run environment, but they’ve struggled against LHP despite just a 7.2 K-BB% against them. I’m fine with him as an SP2 for $6.6K on DraftKings. He costs $1.5K more on FanDuel.
Jake Odorizzi (.207 – 84.4% – 17.0) misses a decent amount of bats and has a 16.2 K-BB%, but is in a dangerous spot tonight and his generally reverse split, fly ball profile probably hurts him more than it helps him in Minnesota.
Kyle Freeland (.259 – 75.3% – 10.8) has just a 3.6 K-BB%.
Derek Holland (.242 – 71.7% – 10) has actually allowed 26 runs in 54.2 IP. It’s just that 11 of them have been unearned.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Gerrit Cole had struck out seven or eight batters in four straight starts before just a total of 10 over his last three. The overall results haven’t been bad as Altanta was the only team to have gotten to him since his first start. Prior to that, he’s finished seven innings in four of five starts. The issues with the Mets haven’t been offensive. They hit the ball hard and have even been striking out at a rate less than average this year. We need a few strikeouts at his current cost.
Mike Foltynewicz is someone I wanted to sneak in there in a decent spot in San Francisco today, but strikeouts are down and the $8K price tag is unfortunate.
Clayton Richard is a ground ball machine (57.7%) with enough strikeouts to be useful (13 of his last 60 BF), but that drops to 51.9% against RHBs, which is what makes up the majority of a Washington lineup that destroys LHP.
John Lackey has now allowed 12 HRs, including four to his last 50 batters. He might have enough strikeouts to make this work for around $8K, but this is not the lineup a pitcher prone to LH power wants to be facing.
Zack Wheeler has a 14.7 BB% over his last four starts. If the Pirates have a strength, it’s their patience on offense.
Wade Miley has a total of 11 strikeouts over his last three starts. The crash and burn of his over-achieving strikeout rate is not unexpected as he never really had the SwStr% to support it, but I can’t say I expected it to be this extreme.
Jharel Cotton returns from a short minor league stint. He struck out nine in his last start, but has not yet been able to translate his minor league stats to major league success and is in one of tonight’s more difficult spots.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 15.1% | 12.8% | Home | 20.6% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 7.4% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.4% | Road | 18.6% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 13.0% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 23.5% | 11.0% | Home | 25.3% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 4.1% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | L2 Years | 20.5% | 15.9% | Home | L14 Days | ||||
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 14.4% | 7.2% | Road | 9.9% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 9.6% | 7.7% |
| Buck Farmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 16.1% | 11.7% | Road | 17.7% | 17.7% | L14 Days | ||
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 18.8% | 8.4% | Home | 20.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 6.5% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.3% | 7.7% | Home | 19.0% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 13.0% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 14.4% | 7.5% | Road | 12.2% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 23.3% | 5.9% | Home | 21.4% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 0.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 26.6% | 9.5% | Home | 28.9% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 10.9% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.4% | 7.8% | Home | 16.5% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 7.4% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | L2 Years | 18.0% | 5.5% | Road | 14.4% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 5.4% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.3% | 5.8% | Home | 20.0% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 6.1% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.8% | 7.1% | Road | 20.4% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 8.2% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 21.9% | 5.4% | Road | 22.9% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 10.9% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.2% | 5.9% | Home | 21.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 3.8% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.5% | 7.1% | Road | 23.1% | 7.4% | L14 Days | ||
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.7% | 6.4% | Road | 25.5% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 8.0% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 14.5% | 10.9% | Home | 16.7% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 12.2% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.4% | 7.8% | Home | 24.5% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 30.9% | 1.8% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 19.5% | 6.6% | Road | 20.7% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 4.1% |
| Rob Whalen | Mariners | L2 Years | 22.7% | 10.9% | Road | 23.3% | 8.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.5% | 6.4% | Home | 28.2% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 7.4% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 10.3% | 6.4% | Home | 11.9% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 3.7% |
| Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 16.2% | 8.4% | Home | 15.3% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 5.3% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.6% | 8.0% | Road | 18.7% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 9.1% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.8% | 8.6% | Road | 31.6% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 11.8% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.6% | 5.3% | Road | 23.2% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 5.3% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 21.7% | 10.9% | Road | 20.3% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 12.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | Road | 29.2% | 10.3% | LH | 28.4% | 11.4% | L7Days | 26.2% | 9.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.0% | 6.7% | RH | 22.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.0% | 6.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.5% | 10.3% | RH | 21.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 21.3% | 8.5% | LH | 18.9% | 11.5% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.0% | 9.5% | RH | 22.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 24.5% | 6.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.8% | 9.0% | RH | 22.8% | 6.1% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 23.3% | 9.0% | LH | 25.0% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.8% | 7.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.4% | 8.6% | RH | 23.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.4% | 5.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.6% | 9.7% | LH | 21.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.4% | 6.3% | LH | 24.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 24.1% | 8.3% |
| Royals | Road | 22.0% | 6.3% | RH | 21.7% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.7% | 10.0% | LH | 21.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 26.1% | 9.3% |
| Twins | Home | 21.7% | 11.6% | RH | 21.9% | 10.5% | L7Days | 23.2% | 9.1% |
| Mets | Road | 19.2% | 9.3% | RH | 19.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.9% | 11.3% |
| Twins | Home | 21.7% | 11.6% | RH | 21.9% | 10.5% | L7Days | 23.2% | 9.1% |
| Indians | Home | 20.3% | 10.3% | LH | 17.7% | 10.5% | L7Days | 22.0% | 8.8% |
| Reds | Road | 18.2% | 7.7% | RH | 20.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 24.4% | 10.8% | RH | 22.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 28.9% | 7.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 21.5% | 9.6% | RH | 22.2% | 10.0% | L7Days | 29.2% | 7.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 19.9% | 7.8% | LH | 22.6% | 10.0% | L7Days | 19.1% | 6.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 24.5% | 8.0% | RH | 22.0% | 9.2% | L7Days | 23.5% | 5.3% |
| Giants | Home | 19.1% | 6.3% | RH | 19.8% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.7% | 6.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.2% | 9.7% | RH | 18.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.0% | 13.0% |
| Padres | Road | 25.8% | 7.4% | RH | 24.9% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.9% | 9.9% |
| Braves | Road | 19.9% | 7.8% | LH | 19.5% | 6.4% | L7Days | 18.4% | 6.4% |
| Angels | Road | 21.7% | 9.3% | RH | 20.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.8% | 13.3% |
| Astros | Home | 18.0% | 7.7% | LH | 18.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 18.0% | 6.9% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 21.0% | 8.2% | RH | 20.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.0% | 6.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.9% | 9.3% | RH | 24.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 24.9% | 8.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.7% | 9.9% | RH | 18.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 9.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 31.2% | 15.4% | 8.2% | 2017 | 28.6% | 19.0% | 2.1% | Home | 28.6% | 22.2% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 25.0% | 13.6% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.1% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 2017 | 31.7% | 8.9% | 12.7% | Road | 32.7% | 18.0% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 0.0% | -2.6% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 31.2% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 2017 | 26.9% | 9.1% | 2.5% | Home | 35.0% | 9.8% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | L2 Years | 28.6% | 18.2% | 14.3% | 2017 | 31.3% | 25.0% | 6.3% | Home | L14 Days | ||||||
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 37.7% | 20.0% | 22.3% | 2017 | 37.7% | 20.0% | 22.3% | Road | 30.6% | 17.6% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 25.0% | 33.4% |
| Buck Farmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.7% | 16.3% | 9.4% | 2017 | Road | 21.2% | 6.7% | -3.0% | L14 Days | ||||||
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.4% | 14.7% | 5.9% | 2017 | 33.3% | 15.2% | 11.1% | Home | 26.8% | 17.0% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 11.1% | 3.0% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.8% | 13.8% | 17.1% | 2017 | 36.4% | 8.3% | 19.2% | Home | 37.9% | 11.4% | 18.8% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 16.7% | 18.7% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 27.0% | 14.1% | 7.5% | 2017 | 29.8% | 19.4% | 13.6% | Road | 26.3% | 19.5% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 9.1% | 17.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 25.3% | 16.4% | 1.3% | 2017 | 20.8% | 19.4% | -10.2% | Home | 26.2% | 10.9% | 1.0% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 0.0% | -46.7% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 30.3% | 13.6% | 14.9% | 2017 | 30.2% | 24.4% | 17.3% | Home | 33.9% | 17.6% | 21.5% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 34.2% | 11.7% | 17.9% | 2017 | 37.7% | 10.0% | 19.5% | Home | 33.8% | 10.1% | 18.1% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 7.7% | 17.9% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | L2 Years | 29.3% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 2017 | 39.4% | 11.4% | 22.1% | Road | 30.5% | 21.2% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 45.2% | 5.6% | 35.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.7% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 2017 | 31.7% | 14.3% | 13.7% | Home | 29.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 13.3% | 12.5% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 2017 | 32.8% | 17.0% | 19.3% | Road | 32.6% | 13.3% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 40.6% | 16.7% | 34.3% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 31.7% | 5.7% | 11.7% | 2017 | 30.1% | 5.7% | 10.5% | Road | 29.5% | 10.3% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 45.2% | 14.3% | 25.8% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.3% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 2017 | 28.8% | 9.1% | 14.7% | Home | 28.8% | 14.1% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 9.1% | 12.8% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 31.2% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 2017 | 33.3% | 12.0% | 13.6% | Road | 31.7% | 8.6% | 12.2% | L14 Days | |||
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.2% | 13.5% | 15.6% | 2017 | 34.6% | 21.1% | 19.5% | Road | 36.0% | 15.2% | 23.3% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 26.7% | 31.5% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 32.7% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 2017 | 32.7% | 10.8% | 9.9% | Home | 28.0% | 7.7% | -2.7% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 21.4% | 30.6% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.6% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 2017 | 27.8% | 10.3% | 11.8% | Home | 30.1% | 9.8% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 11.8% | 8.1% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 31.1% | 14.7% | 11.7% | 2017 | 28.5% | 14.9% | 11.3% | Road | 29.0% | 16.8% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 15.4% | 11.8% |
| Rob Whalen | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.6% | 14.8% | 1.5% | 2017 | Road | 30.0% | 23.1% | 0.0% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.6% | 10.7% | 5.5% | 2017 | 29.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | Home | 30.3% | 12.6% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 9.1% | 13.9% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 30.6% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 2017 | 30.8% | 8.9% | 12.3% | Home | 27.0% | 2.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 35.6% | 15.4% | 17.8% |
| Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.2% | 12.6% | 15.2% | 2017 | 56.3% | 33.3% | 56.3% | Home | 30.0% | 4.7% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 56.3% | 33.3% | 56.3% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.0% | 14.6% | 11.8% | 2017 | 34.6% | 17.6% | 15.0% | Road | 35.0% | 15.3% | 18.0% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 33.3% | 13.7% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.4% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 2017 | 31.1% | 14.5% | 14.9% | Road | 25.2% | 11.9% | 1.3% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 9.1% | -3.4% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.0% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 2017 | 37.4% | 15.6% | 16.9% | Road | 26.6% | 15.8% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 21.4% | 35.3% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 34.4% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 2017 | 34.4% | 14.7% | 13.9% | Road | 32.7% | 9.1% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 10.0% | 40.6% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | Road | 35.8% | 17.9% | 17.3% | LH | 35.4% | 11.3% | 14.3% | L7Days | 41.1% | 17.4% | 29.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 31.9% | 16.7% | 12.5% | RH | 31.2% | 13.4% | 10.9% | L7Days | 30.6% | 16.4% | 9.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 28.9% | 12.3% | 9.5% | RH | 30.2% | 13.1% | 13.8% | L7Days | 37.9% | 27.5% | 22.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 30.4% | 10.3% | 12.8% | LH | 27.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | L7Days | 35.0% | 6.7% | 17.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 29.7% | 13.6% | 7.6% | RH | 29.0% | 10.4% | 6.5% | L7Days | 24.9% | 6.3% | 1.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 27.6% | 10.4% | 6.0% | RH | 27.9% | 13.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 37.4% | 27.1% | 17.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 36.3% | 11.1% | 18.1% | LH | 32.9% | 9.3% | 15.4% | L7Days | 33.1% | 18.2% | 16.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 29.3% | 15.4% | 10.1% | RH | 37.7% | 17.9% | 22.1% | L7Days | 31.4% | 19.0% | 15.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.8% | 16.1% | 15.6% | LH | 30.8% | 19.4% | 10.1% | L7Days | 26.4% | 14.9% | 4.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 36.1% | 14.7% | 17.7% | LH | 37.4% | 12.3% | 18.5% | L7Days | 24.8% | 14.0% | 2.7% |
| Royals | Road | 32.0% | 14.2% | 12.7% | RH | 32.2% | 12.7% | 12.6% | L7Days | 39.5% | 20.6% | 24.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 36.7% | 12.8% | 19.3% | LH | 43.2% | 14.9% | 27.8% | L7Days | 37.4% | 16.1% | 17.8% |
| Twins | Home | 32.9% | 10.6% | 16.2% | RH | 33.5% | 13.6% | 18.0% | L7Days | 33.1% | 9.8% | 16.5% |
| Mets | Road | 36.6% | 15.8% | 19.3% | RH | 33.9% | 11.8% | 15.8% | L7Days | 38.8% | 11.6% | 20.7% |
| Twins | Home | 32.9% | 10.6% | 16.2% | RH | 33.5% | 13.6% | 18.0% | L7Days | 33.1% | 9.8% | 16.5% |
| Indians | Home | 31.8% | 13.5% | 15.5% | LH | 33.4% | 12.2% | 15.0% | L7Days | 30.3% | 16.4% | 14.2% |
| Reds | Road | 28.6% | 11.8% | 7.5% | RH | 28.8% | 12.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 31.9% | 14.9% | 14.4% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.7% | 21.2% | 8.0% | RH | 30.9% | 17.9% | 11.0% | L7Days | 37.7% | 16.1% | 16.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 35.5% | 16.2% | 22.1% | RH | 35.2% | 13.8% | 20.9% | L7Days | 36.0% | 17.8% | 22.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.2% | 9.8% | 15.7% | LH | 32.5% | 5.0% | 17.0% | L7Days | 31.8% | 3.5% | 16.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.9% | 14.1% | 11.5% | RH | 33.7% | 14.5% | 13.9% | L7Days | 38.4% | 11.9% | 19.5% |
| Giants | Home | 23.6% | 8.1% | 0.9% | RH | 29.1% | 10.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 35.1% | 10.6% | 9.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 36.1% | 7.3% | 17.1% | RH | 35.6% | 9.5% | 17.9% | L7Days | 26.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% |
| Padres | Road | 30.2% | 15.1% | 8.6% | RH | 28.4% | 14.2% | 5.7% | L7Days | 26.4% | 7.3% | -1.4% |
| Braves | Road | 31.0% | 12.0% | 12.6% | LH | 33.2% | 21.7% | 16.6% | L7Days | 33.7% | 10.2% | 18.6% |
| Angels | Road | 32.4% | 11.2% | 14.2% | RH | 30.5% | 12.8% | 10.5% | L7Days | 38.7% | 13.5% | 24.3% |
| Astros | Home | 27.8% | 16.5% | 8.6% | LH | 23.6% | 13.5% | 3.4% | L7Days | 25.3% | 16.5% | 8.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.8% | 11.8% | 9.8% | RH | 30.8% | 14.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 32.4% | 22.0% | 11.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 38.2% | 19.4% | 17.5% | RH | 33.9% | 19.0% | 14.7% | L7Days | 29.4% | 11.4% | 1.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 28.7% | 10.3% | 6.9% | RH | 28.8% | 9.8% | 6.7% | L7Days | 25.4% | 13.8% | -2.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 17.8% | 8.2% | 2.17 | 11.1% | 5.6% | 1.98 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 19.0% | 8.4% | 2.26 | 15.3% | 7.6% | 2.01 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 21.2% | 8.1% | 2.62 | 17.6% | 6.4% | 2.75 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 24.0% | 10.3% | 2.33 | |||
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 14.4% | 7.6% | 1.89 | 11.8% | 7.2% | 1.64 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | ||||||
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 16.7% | 9.7% | 1.72 | 18.4% | 8.7% | 2.11 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 19.3% | 9.5% | 2.03 | 16.2% | 9.0% | 1.80 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 17.2% | 8.4% | 2.05 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 2.29 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 22.7% | 10.5% | 2.16 | 26.7% | 12.2% | 2.19 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 32.9% | 15.8% | 2.08 | 30.3% | 15.1% | 2.01 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 19.4% | 7.8% | 2.49 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 2.62 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 18.5% | 9.2% | 2.01 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 2.15 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 20.9% | 9.7% | 2.15 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 2.04 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 22.2% | 11.8% | 1.88 | 25.2% | 12.5% | 2.02 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 22.7% | 12.0% | 1.89 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 1.75 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.48 | 17.1% | 7.2% | 2.38 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 20.5% | 10.2% | 2.01 | 27.4% | 11.9% | 2.30 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 23.7% | 10.9% | 2.17 | 22.7% | 11.8% | 1.92 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 14.5% | 6.1% | 2.38 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 2.48 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 27.2% | 12.2% | 2.23 | 27.6% | 11.5% | 2.40 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 18.1% | 9.0% | 2.01 | 16.5% | 8.2% | 2.01 |
| Rob Whalen | SEA | ||||||
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 24.2% | 11.0% | 2.20 | 22.6% | 11.0% | 2.05 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 8.2% | 5.4% | 1.52 | 7.8% | 5.6% | 1.39 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 10.5% | 4.9% | 2.14 | 10.5% | 4.9% | 2.14 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 23.2% | 8.2% | 2.83 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 2.11 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 26.6% | 11.2% | 2.38 | 28.7% | 11.6% | 2.47 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 29.9% | 13.3% | 2.25 | 34.6% | 13.8% | 2.51 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 21.7% | 9.4% | 2.31 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 2.50 |
We may be reaching the point in the season where outliers become less common. Wade Mley has already gone through a severe adjustment, which may emphasize just how far above his SwStr% he was pitching.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 4.96 | 5.42 | 0.46 | 5.66 | 0.7 | 6.64 | 1.68 | 3.33 | -1.63 | 3.86 | 5.26 | 1.4 | 4.99 | 1.13 | 6.74 | 2.88 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 4.81 | 4.43 | -0.38 | 4.18 | -0.63 | 3.67 | -1.14 | 5.59 | 0.78 | 3.9 | 5.06 | 1.16 | 4.74 | 0.84 | 4.06 | 0.16 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 3.76 | 3.89 | 0.13 | 3.51 | -0.25 | 3.08 | -0.68 | 3.32 | -0.44 | 5.94 | 3.93 | -2.01 | 3.45 | -2.49 | 2.79 | -3.15 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 7.2 | 4.5 | -2.7 | 5.17 | -2.03 | 7.63 | 0.43 | 5.08 | -2.12 | |||||||
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 6.75 | 5.18 | -1.57 | 5.53 | -1.22 | 6.95 | 0.2 | 11.65 | 4.90 | 6.66 | 5.77 | -0.89 | 6.23 | -0.43 | 7.78 | 1.12 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | ||||||||||||||||
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 4.62 | 4.72 | 0.1 | 4.49 | -0.13 | 4.73 | 0.11 | 5.88 | 1.26 | 6.26 | 4.36 | -1.9 | 4.22 | -2.04 | 4.68 | -1.58 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 4.25 | 4.65 | 0.4 | 4.75 | 0.5 | 3.98 | -0.27 | 6.28 | 2.03 | 7.3 | 5.36 | -1.94 | 5.55 | -1.75 | 5.3 | -2 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 4.31 | 3.87 | -0.44 | 3.49 | -0.82 | 3.96 | -0.35 | 4.50 | 0.19 | 4.18 | 3.85 | -0.33 | 3.43 | -0.75 | 3.12 | -1.06 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 1.84 | 3 | 1.16 | 2.87 | 1.03 | 3.27 | 1.43 | 1.50 | -0.34 | 2.7 | 2.32 | -0.38 | 2.15 | -0.55 | 2.54 | -0.16 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 5.55 | 3.34 | -2.21 | 3.33 | -2.22 | 4.73 | -0.82 | 2.95 | -2.60 | 6.66 | 3.61 | -3.05 | 3.63 | -3.03 | 7.14 | 0.48 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 2.47 | 4.61 | 2.14 | 4.88 | 2.41 | 4.35 | 1.88 | 4.68 | 2.21 | 2.81 | 4.63 | 1.82 | 4.89 | 2.08 | 4.22 | 1.41 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 3 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 3.81 | 0.81 | 3.59 | 0.59 | 3.90 | 0.90 | 2.95 | 3.85 | 0.9 | 3.93 | 0.98 | 2.94 | -0.01 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 3.36 | 3.84 | 0.48 | 3.77 | 0.41 | 3.92 | 0.56 | 3.56 | 0.20 | 3.13 | 3.94 | 0.81 | 3.89 | 0.76 | 3.85 | 0.72 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.14 | 3.95 | 0.81 | 3.95 | 0.81 | 4.5 | 1.36 | 3.94 | 0.80 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 3.57 | 0.87 | 3.96 | 1.26 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 2.3 | 3.95 | 1.65 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 2.96 | 0.66 | 3.62 | 1.32 | 3.1 | 5.36 | 2.26 | 5.78 | 2.68 | 4.17 | 1.07 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.7 | 4.32 | -0.38 | 4.44 | -0.26 | 3.77 | -0.93 | 5.99 | 1.29 | 6.67 | 4.73 | -1.94 | 4.67 | -2 | 3.96 | -2.71 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 5.68 | 4.54 | -1.14 | 4.78 | -0.9 | 4.58 | -1.1 | 6.03 | 0.35 | 7.04 | 3.44 | -3.6 | 3.86 | -3.18 | 5.64 | -1.4 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 4.82 | 3.73 | -1.09 | 3.83 | -0.99 | 4.94 | 0.12 | 5.29 | 0.47 | 4.76 | 3.77 | -0.99 | 4.04 | -0.72 | 5.25 | 0.49 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 3.31 | 4.79 | 1.48 | 4.59 | 1.28 | 4.37 | 1.06 | 5.01 | 1.70 | 3.3 | 5.03 | 1.73 | 4.76 | 1.46 | 4.63 | 1.33 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.3 | 3.42 | 0.12 | 3.74 | 0.44 | 3.27 | -0.03 | 4.74 | 1.44 | 3.86 | 3.24 | -0.62 | 3.47 | -0.39 | 3.31 | -0.55 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 3.86 | 4.36 | 0.5 | 4.26 | 0.4 | 4.49 | 0.63 | 5.76 | 1.90 | 4.33 | 4.14 | -0.19 | 3.98 | -0.35 | 5.22 | 0.89 |
| Rob Whalen | SEA | ||||||||||||||||
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 3.28 | 3.66 | 0.38 | 3.5 | 0.22 | 2.83 | -0.45 | 2.12 | -1.16 | 3.62 | 4.02 | 0.4 | 4.05 | 0.43 | 3.4 | -0.22 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 4.1 | 5.38 | 1.28 | 5 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 7.21 | 3.11 | 4.06 | 5.39 | 1.33 | 5.01 | 0.95 | 4.64 | 0.58 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 6.75 | 4.34 | -2.41 | 4.06 | -2.69 | 6.03 | -0.72 | 8.79 | 2.04 | 6.75 | 4.34 | -2.41 | 4.06 | -2.69 | 6.03 | -0.72 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 2.59 | 4.49 | 1.9 | 4 | 1.41 | 4.41 | 1.82 | 2.75 | 0.16 | 3.18 | 5.12 | 1.94 | 4.59 | 1.41 | 5.68 | 2.5 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 2.83 | 3.93 | 1.1 | 3.65 | 0.82 | 3.8 | 0.97 | 2.59 | -0.24 | 2.61 | 3.77 | 1.16 | 3.6 | 0.99 | 3.68 | 1.07 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 2.82 | 2.88 | 0.06 | 2.88 | 0.06 | 3.18 | 0.36 | 1.73 | -1.09 | 2.72 | 2.44 | -0.28 | 2.64 | -0.08 | 3.8 | 1.08 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 3.74 | 4.34 | 0.6 | 4.05 | 0.31 | 4.21 | 0.47 | 4.84 | 1.10 | 2.08 | 4.96 | 2.88 | 4.3 | 2.22 | 4.55 | 2.47 |
Dallas Keuchel has a .215 BABIP and 88.2 LOB% that are primed for some regression. Nobody expects him to sustain an ERA below two. However, the quality of his contact has been so special that it’s difficult to say he hasn’t deserved this success.
Danny Salazar doesn’t generate enough weak contact and seems to, once again, have a poor defense behind him. This was an issue Cleveland thought it has solved with the ascent of Lindor and a few other young players, but it doesn’t seem to have held this year.
Yu Darvish has a .248 BABIP and 85.8% strand rate. As mentioned up top, he’s those eight HRs haven’t resulted in more runs with a 10.6 BB%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.261 | 0.267 | 0.006 | 42.9% | 0.143 | 9.5% | 85.6% | 88.7 | 12.20% | 8.20% | 49 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.290 | 0.377 | 0.087 | 48.1% | 0.227 | 11.1% | 90.4% | 85.6 | 4.40% | 3.20% | 158 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.294 | 0.293 | -0.001 | 46.6% | 0.25 | 12.1% | 89.5% | 84.9 | 2.50% | 1.80% | 119 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 0.306 | 0.357 | 0.051 | 37.5% | 0.125 | 0.0% | 92.3% | ||||
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 0.269 | 0.265 | -0.004 | 33.1% | 0.2 | 6.7% | 90.8% | 88.3 | 10.50% | 8.20% | 162 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 0.301 | ||||||||||
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.283 | 0.284 | 0.001 | 47.1% | 0.236 | 4.3% | 86.7% | 86.1 | 5.60% | 4.10% | 162 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.312 | 0.322 | 0.01 | 34.3% | 0.238 | 8.3% | 86.3% | 84.9 | 6.00% | 4.20% | 151 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.300 | 0.325 | 0.025 | 57.7% | 0.237 | 2.8% | 89.2% | 86.8 | 5.10% | 3.80% | 198 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.279 | 0.215 | -0.064 | 67.1% | 0.14 | 6.5% | 89.6% | 83.9 | 6.00% | 4.20% | 168 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.301 | 0.362 | 0.061 | 36.0% | 0.246 | 11.1% | 78.2% | 89.1 | 11.20% | 6.20% | 116 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.264 | 0.242 | -0.022 | 38.0% | 0.177 | 5.7% | 88.5% | 88.5 | 6.30% | 4.40% | 159 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.270 | 0.220 | -0.05 | 53.9% | 0.118 | 0.0% | 84.0% | 85.3 | 8.30% | 6.30% | 84 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.309 | 0.270 | -0.039 | 48.9% | 0.153 | 6.3% | 86.1% | 87.2 | 7.10% | 5.20% | 183 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.270 | 0.207 | -0.063 | 33.9% | 0.263 | 4.3% | 82.3% | 85.7 | 7.60% | 5.40% | 119 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.294 | 0.268 | -0.026 | 34.2% | 0.197 | 10.0% | 78.5% | 86.8 | 3.90% | 2.80% | 153 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.291 | 0.318 | 0.027 | 38.6% | 0.196 | 6.1% | 88.7% | 88.3 | 7.40% | 5.30% | 163 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 0.286 | 0.319 | 0.033 | 37.7% | 0.184 | 14.0% | 81.7% | 86.5 | 3.40% | 2.30% | 117 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.294 | 0.313 | 0.019 | 44.2% | 0.188 | 7.0% | 85.7% | 86.6 | 6.90% | 4.70% | 159 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.281 | 0.259 | -0.022 | 62.8% | 0.135 | 16.2% | 93.0% | 84.8 | 3.70% | 2.70% | 162 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.303 | 0.290 | -0.013 | 36.1% | 0.169 | 6.4% | 79.5% | 87.4 | 8.90% | 5.80% | 169 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.284 | 0.306 | 0.022 | 43.4% | 0.241 | 10.6% | 85.5% | 86.3 | 6.60% | 4.90% | 151 |
| Rob Whalen | SEA | 0.290 | ||||||||||
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.296 | 0.282 | -0.014 | 47.6% | 0.195 | 7.4% | 87.5% | 88.1 | 8.40% | 5.70% | 167 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.303 | 0.246 | -0.057 | 46.5% | 0.218 | 6.7% | 89.4% | 86.1 | 5.50% | 4.70% | 146 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 0.283 | 0.333 | 0.05 | 60.0% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 89.3% | ||||
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.304 | 0.283 | -0.021 | 51.5% | 0.227 | 8.8% | 90.5% | 88 | 4.50% | 2.80% | 133 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.286 | 0.248 | -0.038 | 38.1% | 0.275 | 7.3% | 84.8% | 86.4 | 5.60% | 3.50% | 161 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.282 | 0.267 | -0.015 | 44.6% | 0.173 | 12.5% | 85.3% | 87 | 7.60% | 5.00% | 171 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 0.319 | 0.265 | -0.054 | 49.2% | 0.23 | 5.9% | 84.3% | 87.2 | 7.40% | 4.90% | 122 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Dallas Keuchel (1) missed one start with a neck issue. Without this consideration, he’s the top pitcher tonight. The thinking here is that they would have no reason to risk starting an unhealthy pitcher at this point (especially their best one) with a nine game lead. It’s most likely the DL stint was precautionary. The issue is not as much with a recurrence as it is a workload limit, but it was just one start and this is a scary group of pitchers behind him. A healthy Keuchel has been so much more consistently good than any other pitcher tonight that the inclination is to leave him as the top guy. He might have the highest floor in the league with a decent ceiling as well. If there’s word of a pitch limit below 100 that I may have missed, drop him down a tier.
Value Tier Two
Zack Greinke (2t) has one of the highest strikeout rates in the league and may reach double digit Ks again tonight, but it’s not without risk. He’s been giving up some bombs too because his mistakes are being hit hard at lower velocity.
Stephen Strasburg (2t) is in a great spot at home against the Padres with a lot of upside, but hasn’t always been the most successful in strong spots. Those four starts with five Ks or less: Pirates, Phillies, Mets, Marlins. Four of the five with at least eight have come against the Phillies and Braves too. He should shine here, but is the highest priced pitcher on the board.
Buck Farmer is probably not where you’re landing on a single pitcher site, but his peripherals have been strong in AAA this season and he faces an awful offense against RHP at a very low price.
Value Tier Three
Danny Salazar (5) may be the top pure point accumulator on the board without points subtracted for walks and hits and runs. Those deductions make him more a high risk, high reward guy.
Yu Darvish (4) might be a fourth tier arm due to inconsistencies and a high cost, but the Blue Jays are sitting a few pertinent bats today. He can pitch deep into games when he doesn’t have control problems (seven or more innings in four of 10 starts), but has twice exited before finishing six, including his last start.
Marco Estrada is missing bats at a borderline elite rate. I’m not sure why the numbers don’t really like him much in this spot, but I’m calling an audible and considering him usable in this spot at home against the Rangers. I’ve been wrong when going against the data before, but that strikeout rate is too difficult to ignore in a fairly neutral matchup.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Brandon McCarthy is in a decent spot at a reasonable cost at home. There’s not a ton of upside here, but that’s the case in most spots tonight. If you’re just looking for a spot filler and hope your offense goes off, you’re probably considering him for his floor rather than his ceiling. The main issue here is that that the Dodgers have taken to shortening the outings of their injury prone pitchers. It’s not a bad move, especially considering the quality of their bullpen, but does daily fantasy players no favors. With Wood going just five last night, perhaps he’ll be extended a longer leash.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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