Advanced Stats – Pitching: Thursday, August 3rd
Ten games is a fairly large slate for a Thursday night. A few recently traded pitchers are pitching for their new teams today, Sonny Gray for the first time in pinstripes in a really tough spot in Cleveland. In fact, he’s facing the top pitcher on the board (Corey Kluber) in the worst matchup of the evening for either pitcher. I think Mr. Kluber is matchup proof at this point and may be the only really trustable arm on the night slate considering recent outings by a couple of 2017 break outs on the mound tonight.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 1.8 | 4.66 | 5.1 | 29.2% | 1.04 | 5.12 | MIN | 100 | 97 | 77 | |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | -0.2 | 5.08 | 4.95 | 42.5% | 1.04 | 4.49 | 5.25 | TEX | 81 | 79 | 105 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2.8 | 3.47 | 5.77 | 57.1% | 1 | 3.23 | 4.79 | ATL | 87 | 101 | 91 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | -0.5 | 4.88 | 4.91 | 38.0% | 0.94 | 4.73 | 4.93 | HOU | 122 | 120 | 106 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -2.4 | 4.72 | 4.94 | 44.1% | 0.97 | 5.33 | 5.45 | CIN | 93 | 98 | 102 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | -5.1 | 4.82 | 5.38 | 41.2% | 1.02 | 4.85 | 3.74 | DET | 91 | 95 | 109 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | -5.5 | 3.91 | 5.8 | 41.2% | 0.94 | 3.99 | 4.19 | TAM | 97 | 108 | 97 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.3 | 3.16 | 6.68 | 44.0% | 1.09 | 3.1 | 1.89 | NYY | 100 | 113 | 93 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 5.4 | 4.24 | 5.64 | 35.6% | 1.13 | 4.77 | 4.59 | CHW | 93 | 103 | 83 |
| German Marquez | COL | -3.9 | 4.14 | 5.61 | 45.0% | 1.39 | 3.77 | 2.24 | NYM | 107 | 101 | 95 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 2.2 | 4.16 | 5.88 | 40.2% | 0.91 | 4.35 | 5.08 | ANA | 100 | 96 | 121 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 3.2 | 3.94 | 6.28 | 42.1% | 0.96 | 3.8 | 4.13 | ARI | 79 | 73 | 63 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -11.2 | 4.53 | 5.87 | 52.1% | 0.93 | 4.65 | SFO | 76 | 80 | 84 | |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 1.7 | 4.76 | 5.15 | 37.9% | 1.02 | 4.67 | 3.85 | BAL | 100 | 90 | 107 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -1.6 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 49.4% | 1.02 | 4.53 | 5.68 | STL | 88 | 96 | 54 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -1.5 | 4.26 | 5.57 | 46.0% | 1.02 | 4.11 | 3.04 | MIL | 89 | 93 | 42 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | -0.1 | 5 | 5.8 | 40.4% | 1.13 | 5.21 | 5.8 | BOS | 91 | 90 | 128 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 2 | 4.84 | 6.26 | 38.9% | 0.91 | 4.12 | 5.07 | PHI | 76 | 88 | 97 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | -1.6 | 4.88 | 4.71 | 42.8% | 1.39 | 4.67 | 5.41 | COL | 89 | 79 | 78 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 7.3 | 5.48 | 4.24 | 48.2% | 0.97 | 4.07 | 4.81 | PIT | 89 | 87 | 61 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | -1.8 | 4.73 | 5.33 | 42.5% | 1 | 4.95 | 5.01 | LOS | 101 | 114 | 84 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 2.4 | 4.14 | 5.75 | 53.4% | 1.09 | 3.71 | 2.85 | CLE | 112 | 107 | 121 |
| Trevor Cahill | KAN | 7.2 | 3.63 | 5.38 | 57.1% | 1.06 | 3.71 | 6.62 | SEA | 95 | 103 | 106 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | -3 | 5 | 6.22 | 47.4% | 0.93 | 4.53 | 4.48 | OAK | 86 | 86 | 124 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 7.4 | 5.09 | 5.22 | 0.45 | 1.06 | 4.97 | 6.18 | KAN | 92 | 88 | 68 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -5.4 | 3.64 | 6.4 | 0.467 | 0.96 | 3.49 | 3.78 | CHC | 100 | 91 | 95 |
Alex Wood went seven innings in his most recent start, but did not really bounce back from his first disastrous effort, allowing four runs with just five strikeouts and a ground ball rate below 50% for the third time in four starts. His hard hit rate (34.8%) was above 30% for just the third time since April. In four July starts, he averaged 91.4 mph on all fastballs/sinkers combined (down one mph from his season velocity) with a 47.8 GB% and 15.7 K-BB%. These aren’t necessarily bad numbers, especially when considering a -8.4 Hard-Soft%, but it’s not the pitcher we had become used to over the prior two months. While we wouldn’t expect him to tire this early, without even 100 innings yet, perhaps he was over-extending himself, throwing harder than he ever had and only pitching 60 innings last season. He is still the top contact manager on the board (84.2 mph aEV, 3.2% Barrels/BBE, 24.5% 95+ mph EV and that hasn’t all disappeared. It could work well for him against an Atlanta offense that doesn’t hit the ball very hard.
Corey Kluber is the only legitimate threat to “(player-popup)Chris Sale”:/players/chris-sale-10976’s 2017 Cy Young award. His 29.8 K-BB% trails only Sale. He’s struck out at least 10 in 10 of his last 13 starts and has failed to go at least six innings just twice all season. The Yankees are a difficult matchup in a park that is not as power friendly, but a more positive run environment than their home park, where they’ve run a 16.4 HR/FB despite a 26 Hard% over the last week.
Eduardo Rodriguez has failed to complete six innings in any of three starts since his return from a knee injury with a high ERA because he’s allowed a HR in each start, but his strikeout and swinging strike rates are right in line with his season. He’s in a decent enough spot tonight against a White Sox offense that has been slipping and is without many of the bats that made them so potent against LHP earlier in the season.
Rick Porcello is now scheduled after last night’s rain out. The White Sox are a bit worse against RHP, but Porcello doesn’t give you as much upside with similar HR risks. It nearly evens out.
Sonny Gray is thrown right into the fire in his first start for his new team. Although it’s not at home nor against an AL East opponent, it’s the worst spot on the board in Cleveland. He’s gone at least six innings with two ERs or fewer in six straight starts, though four unearned runs were scored in his last start, while striking out nine. Strikeouts have been hit or miss, but he does have a solid 16.0 K-BB% on the season. Perhaps not a number one starter, he’s a quality arm with more strikeouts this year and strong contact management (56.7 GB%, 28.4 Hard%).
Trevor Cahill left San Diego on a stinker and opened for the Royals the same way. He’s walked six with just three strikeouts (SwStr rate below 6%) over his last two starts. Giving him the benefit of the doubt against two low strikeout teams (Giants, Red Sox), we’re going to need to see a serious reverse of course tonight. He’s still sitting on a career high 26.2 K% with a 56.7 GB% and 85.1 mph aEV (27.2% 95+ mph EV). He’s in a marginal spot, hosting the Mariners in his new park. They’re not a bad offense, but fifth worst against ground ball pitchers (82 sOPS+). Though the park is power suppressing, it’s run friendly. A ground ball pitcher, he may not get the full benefit of the park like some of the more extreme fly ball pitchers they employ.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Parker Bridwell (.266 – 89.9% – 14.1) missed more bats in July, but has an 88.7 mph aEV with an unsustainable strand rate.
Adalberto Mejia (.298 – 77.9% – 12.6) has been improving his walk rate, but it’s still in double digits with a below average strikeout rate, though he had a SwStr rate above 9% in all five July starts. Contact management is average and Texas is terrible against LHP (25.3%) and away from home (26.4%). While they’ve been punishing baseballs over the last week (43.9 Hard%, 24.5 HR/FB), that’s all been at home. While all of his estimators are nearly a run higher than his ERA, none of his numbers are really out of line, though the strand rate is a bit high for his profile. I’m nearly interested.
Sal Romano (.293 – 71% – 13.6) has allowed three unearned runs through five starts and has a 16.7 BB%.
Miguel Gonzalez (.298 – 69.8% – 9.9) has a 1.2 K-BB% in July.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Collin McHugh struggled a bit in his first start of the season, but threw six quality innings at Detroit, striking out seven in his second one. Contact has been a bit of a concern with just a 21.4 GB% so far, especially against a powerful Tampa Bay offense (18 HR/FB vs RHP) and that’s essentially what holds him off our wish list today because he’s been able to miss bats so far and this is a high upside spot (Rays 25 K% vs RHP). It’s very close and I may continue to waver on him throughout the day, especially if we lose any pitchers to weather conditions.
Matt Boyd has allowed at least three ERs in each of his last 10 starts, though more than four only once. He did have a double digit SwStr% in all three July starts though with an improving contact profile. He’s in a marginal spot in Baltimore. The Orioles have a 17.4 K-BB% vs LHP, but have just a 17.2 K% over the last week.
Jerad Eickhoff has seen his walk rate increase 50% this year, giving him a career low 11.3 K-BB%. While his strikeout rate has risen over the last month, so has his walk, into double digits for the second consecutive month. I still believe him a league average pitcher and while not in a bad spot tonight, it’s not a high strikeout one.
Chad Kuhl rode a strikeout rate that did not decline despite a sharp decrease in SwStr%, along with HR suppression (4.2 HR/FB) to a sub-four ERA in July, while his walk rate (11.9%) was his highest rate in any month this season.
Sean Newcomb had an 8.7 K-BB% in June due to a 14.8 BB%. He’s in a difficult spot, hosting the Dodgers tonight.
Blake Snell was better in July, but still not all that good. He had a 10.0 K-BB% and 80.7 LOB%, but did manage contact well (-1.6 Hard-Soft%). Important when generating so many fly balls in AL East parks. The matchup with a hobbled, but still potent Houston lineup is better than it would have been a few weeks ago, but still not a spot to test him in.
Kendall Graveman returns to possibly the best spot on the slate in San Francisco.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 21.0% | 8.6% | Road | 22.2% | 8.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 17.7% | 10.1% | Home | 20.3% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 8.9% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.0% | 7.5% | Road | 26.5% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 7.3% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 22.3% | 12.9% | Road | 21.3% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 5.9% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 18.4% | 8.6% | Home | 15.9% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 12.0% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 17.8% | 9.3% | Home | 18.9% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 4.4% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 22.6% | 6.8% | Home | 24.1% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 7.0% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 29.4% | 6.2% | Home | 30.9% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 44.1% | 5.1% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 22.1% | 8.1% | Home | 23.3% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 10.4% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 21.5% | 7.1% | Home | 20.5% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 38.0% | 4.0% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.0% | 6.5% | Road | 19.9% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 10.4% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.7% | Home | 24.0% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 10.2% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.5% | 6.1% | Road | 13.3% | 6.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.8% | 7.9% | Road | 19.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 5.9% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.6% | 8.0% | Home | 17.1% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 14.3% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.5% | 8.2% | Road | 19.7% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 2.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 15.4% | 7.7% | Road | 14.1% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 11.7% | 10.0% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 16.0% | 6.1% | Home | 16.1% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 3.8% |
| Rafael Montero | Mets | L2 Years | 21.6% | 13.2% | Road | 24.4% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 22.6% | 16.7% | Road | 27.5% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 16.7% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 22.5% | 11.7% | Home | 16.4% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 17.4% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.8% | 8.1% | Road | 20.6% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 7.4% |
| Trevor Cahill | Royals | L2 Years | 25.7% | 10.5% | Home | 26.1% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 14.3% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 12.3% | 5.6% | Home | 13.8% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 5.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 16.1% | 10.2% | Road | 16.4% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 10.9% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.8% | 5.6% | Road | 23.5% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 5.1% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | Home | 21.5% | 10.2% | RH | 22.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 23.4% | 11.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.4% | 8.1% | LH | 25.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 29.1% | 5.4% |
| Braves | Home | 19.8% | 7.2% | LH | 18.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.5% | 9.7% |
| Astros | Home | 16.5% | 7.9% | LH | 17.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 12.6% | 5.9% |
| Reds | Road | 20.4% | 7.8% | RH | 21.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.5% | 10.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.1% | 9.0% | RH | 22.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.8% | 8.9% |
| Rays | Road | 25.5% | 8.6% | RH | 25.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 27.8% | 9.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.0% | 9.2% | RH | 22.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.7% | 6.0% | LH | 21.9% | 6.7% | L7Days | 27.3% | 6.2% |
| Mets | Road | 20.8% | 8.4% | RH | 18.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.9% | 5.2% |
| Angels | Home | 18.4% | 7.5% | RH | 19.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 15.7% | 5.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.4% | 8.6% | LH | 25.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 25.1% | 10.1% |
| Giants | Home | 19.0% | 7.0% | RH | 19.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.3% | 6.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.9% | 7.2% | LH | 24.2% | 6.8% | L7Days | 17.2% | 8.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.9% | 8.5% | RH | 21.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 31.7% | 7.2% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.4% | 8.5% | RH | 25.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 27.5% | 10.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.1% | 9.5% | RH | 19.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 16.2% | 9.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.2% | 7.7% | RH | 23.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 9.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.5% | 7.5% | RH | 22.8% | 7.5% | L7Days | 24.7% | 7.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.0% | 9.1% | RH | 18.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 23.2% | 7.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.4% | 10.6% | LH | 22.5% | 10.6% | L7Days | 20.1% | 9.2% |
| Indians | Home | 18.5% | 10.2% | RH | 19.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 16.0% | 10.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.2% | 7.4% | RH | 21.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.3% | 9.2% | LH | 24.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.3% | 11.7% |
| Royals | Home | 18.9% | 6.9% | RH | 20.6% | 6.4% | L7Days | 19.6% | 5.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.9% | 9.9% | RH | 22.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.0% | 8.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 38.5% | 17.0% | 19.1% | 2017 | 39.5% | 17.4% | 16.0% | Road | 38.3% | 15.5% | 15.9% | L14 Days | |||
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 33.0% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 2017 | 32.5% | 12.6% | 11.2% | Home | 35.2% | 15.1% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 0.0% | 11.8% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.2% | 12.1% | 7.2% | 2017 | 22.1% | 9.3% | 1.6% | Road | 25.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 32.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 2017 | 33.3% | 12.5% | 12.2% | Road | 33.1% | 8.5% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 11.8% | -10.0% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.0% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 2017 | 33.0% | 8.9% | 16.0% | Home | 33.5% | 12.8% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 0.0% | 19.5% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.6% | 13.3% | 14.4% | 2017 | 35.5% | 17.5% | 16.9% | Home | 31.7% | 12.9% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 27.3% | 19.3% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 28.1% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 2017 | 32.1% | 13.3% | 21.4% | Home | 25.0% | 11.2% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 13.3% | 21.4% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 28.5% | 12.5% | 8.4% | 2017 | 30.4% | 14.1% | 8.5% | Home | 26.7% | 11.4% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 25.0% | 6.9% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.7% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 2017 | 30.5% | 13.8% | 13.3% | Home | 26.9% | 15.2% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 18.2% | 22.5% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 34.7% | 11.0% | 20.0% | 2017 | 35.9% | 10.2% | 20.9% | Home | 32.3% | 14.9% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 14.3% | 10.7% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.0% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 2017 | 32.5% | 10.1% | 18.2% | Road | 33.3% | 11.9% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.5% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 2017 | 32.5% | 12.8% | 14.9% | Home | 34.3% | 16.6% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 16.7% | 32.2% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.9% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 2017 | 32.9% | 13.3% | 13.0% | Road | 31.3% | 14.3% | 13.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 33.1% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 2017 | 37.2% | 10.0% | 16.6% | Road | 31.7% | 10.8% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 11.8% | -14.3% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.5% | 11.2% | 16.5% | 2017 | 33.1% | 9.7% | 15.6% | Home | 38.0% | 13.0% | 22.1% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 16.7% | -7.2% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.5% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 2017 | 28.5% | 11.0% | 8.0% | Road | 28.6% | 13.2% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 25.0% | 6.1% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.3% | 8.9% | 13.5% | 2017 | 33.0% | 9.9% | 17.4% | Road | 32.1% | 9.5% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 32.6% | 0.0% | 17.4% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 35.4% | 15.7% | 22.5% | 2017 | 34.1% | 14.1% | 20.9% | Home | 32.3% | 22.6% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| Rafael Montero | Mets | L2 Years | 28.1% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 2017 | 27.0% | 9.7% | 9.8% | Road | 35.8% | 23.1% | 21.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 25.0% | 12.1% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 29.5% | 13.6% | 8.2% | 2017 | 29.5% | 13.6% | 8.2% | Road | 22.7% | 0.0% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 12.5% | -8.7% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 30.7% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 2017 | 30.7% | 11.1% | 12.4% | Home | 26.1% | 15.4% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 9.1% | 12.5% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.1% | 15.5% | 15.1% | 2017 | 28.4% | 13.1% | 11.7% | Road | 34.1% | 21.5% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | -2.9% |
| Trevor Cahill | Royals | L2 Years | 30.5% | 18.5% | 8.6% | 2017 | 30.6% | 17.0% | 8.9% | Home | 22.5% | 11.1% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 25.0% | 12.1% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 30.5% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 2017 | 30.6% | 7.7% | 10.2% | Home | 28.0% | 4.1% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 8.3% | 13.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 29.5% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 2017 | 33.7% | 13.2% | 13.8% | Road | 30.4% | 10.8% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 14.3% | 17.6% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 32.2% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 2017 | 35.1% | 13.4% | 13.4% | Road | 27.5% | 14.6% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 10.0% | 16.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | Home | 33.6% | 11.3% | 17.0% | RH | 32.9% | 12.2% | 16.0% | L7Days | 28.5% | 8.2% | 13.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.5% | 16.3% | 9.7% | LH | 31.0% | 14.0% | 10.2% | L7Days | 43.9% | 24.5% | 25.9% |
| Braves | Home | 28.8% | 12.4% | 9.0% | LH | 29.0% | 16.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 29.1% | 12.1% | 10.3% |
| Astros | Home | 31.3% | 15.2% | 13.8% | LH | 28.2% | 14.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 34.8% | 11.7% | 17.1% |
| Reds | Road | 30.4% | 13.8% | 11.1% | RH | 29.7% | 14.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 31.5% | 14.5% | 10.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 34.9% | 12.0% | 17.6% | RH | 40.2% | 11.2% | 24.8% | L7Days | 35.5% | 15.0% | 18.4% |
| Rays | Road | 32.7% | 17.0% | 12.8% | RH | 35.5% | 18.0% | 17.6% | L7Days | 25.2% | 18.8% | -1.7% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.5% | 11.9% | 13.1% | RH | 31.4% | 16.6% | 12.6% | L7Days | 26.0% | 16.4% | 7.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.4% | 13.9% | 13.8% | LH | 28.0% | 14.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 25.0% | 14.7% | 0.0% |
| Mets | Road | 36.6% | 15.4% | 19.5% | RH | 35.0% | 13.0% | 17.9% | L7Days | 36.7% | 15.6% | 23.4% |
| Angels | Home | 29.2% | 13.7% | 10.4% | RH | 31.1% | 13.7% | 11.6% | L7Days | 31.3% | 12.1% | 12.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.5% | 13.3% | 10.5% | LH | 32.0% | 14.7% | 14.9% | L7Days | 24.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% |
| Giants | Home | 25.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | RH | 27.8% | 8.6% | 6.5% | L7Days | 27.9% | 11.3% | 12.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 30.9% | 15.6% | 10.1% | LH | 34.5% | 13.4% | 15.3% | L7Days | 34.1% | 11.1% | 9.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.7% | 13.4% | 13.6% | RH | 31.2% | 13.1% | 11.9% | L7Days | 25.4% | 7.7% | 1.6% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.2% | 18.4% | 17.9% | RH | 33.4% | 18.9% | 14.3% | L7Days | 29.6% | 10.4% | 14.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 35.3% | 9.0% | 16.7% | RH | 34.1% | 10.6% | 15.8% | L7Days | 36.0% | 10.0% | 14.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% | RH | 30.2% | 11.7% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.9% | 14.0% | 1.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 32.4% | 16.9% | 13.4% | RH | 30.1% | 13.3% | 10.2% | L7Days | 28.7% | 7.9% | 4.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | RH | 29.9% | 10.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 27.7% | 11.6% | 9.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.6% | 14.4% | 17.8% | LH | 34.7% | 18.1% | 18.7% | L7Days | 30.5% | 8.5% | 12.5% |
| Indians | Home | 31.3% | 12.8% | 13.5% | RH | 33.9% | 12.2% | 17.2% | L7Days | 29.7% | 16.1% | 12.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.9% | 11.2% | 14.0% | RH | 30.4% | 12.5% | 12.3% | L7Days | 36.6% | 7.3% | 21.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 34.1% | 12.4% | 15.1% | LH | 31.9% | 9.8% | 13.7% | L7Days | 33.7% | 9.2% | 18.8% |
| Royals | Home | 31.1% | 10.4% | 11.5% | RH | 32.0% | 11.8% | 12.8% | L7Days | 30.9% | 5.2% | 12.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.6% | 16.2% | 14.5% | RH | 31.0% | 14.6% | 13.2% | L7Days | 33.6% | 20.3% | 15.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 21.0% | 9.1% | 2.31 | |||
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 18.4% | 9.3% | 1.98 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 1.72 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 28.2% | 13.0% | 2.17 | 22.6% | 12.4% | 1.82 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 19.5% | 9.3% | 2.10 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.09 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 18.9% | 10.3% | 1.83 | 19.5% | 7.6% | 2.57 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 15.9% | 7.6% | 2.09 | 20.6% | 9.2% | 2.24 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.13 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.13 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 35.8% | 16.2% | 2.21 | 41.2% | 18.6% | 2.22 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 26.3% | 11.7% | 2.25 | 26.0% | 11.0% | 2.36 |
| German Marquez | COL | 23.0% | 9.5% | 2.42 | 30.8% | 12.5% | 2.46 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.37 | 25.8% | 10.6% | 2.43 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 26.0% | 8.6% | 3.02 | 36.8% | 10.2% | 3.61 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 16.5% | 7.4% | 2.23 | |||
| Matt Boyd | DET | 15.8% | 9.4% | 1.68 | 20.5% | 13.5% | 1.52 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 16.3% | 8.3% | 1.96 | 13.2% | 6.5% | 2.03 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 23.8% | 10.2% | 2.33 | 27.5% | 11.5% | 2.39 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 13.1% | 6.9% | 1.90 | 14.0% | 7.4% | 1.89 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 15.7% | 10.2% | 1.54 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 1.85 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 21.6% | 9.9% | 2.18 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 2.02 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 22.6% | 9.2% | 2.46 | 25.0% | 11.1% | 2.25 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 22.5% | 12.2% | 1.84 | 23.5% | 13.1% | 1.79 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 23.5% | 12.1% | 1.94 | 25.5% | 13.6% | 1.88 |
| Trevor Cahill | KAN | 26.2% | 12.2% | 2.15 | 20.9% | 9.7% | 2.15 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 11.8% | 6.9% | 1.71 | 13.6% | 7.1% | 1.92 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 16.9% | 8.0% | 2.11 | 18.2% | 9.2% | 1.98 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 27.9% | 13.2% | 2.11 | 24.3% | 12.5% | 1.94 |
Matt Boyd and Parker Bridwell may both have a few more strikeouts in their future and in fact, both increased their K% to league average in July.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 5.77 | 4.78 | -0.99 | 5.51 | -0.26 | 6.36 | 0.59 | 7.41 | 1.64 | |||||||
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 4.07 | 5.01 | 0.94 | 4.98 | 0.91 | 4.82 | 0.75 | 4.88 | 0.81 | 3.49 | 4.56 | 1.07 | 4.19 | 0.7 | 3.47 | -0.02 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2.38 | 3.11 | 0.73 | 2.84 | 0.46 | 2.52 | 0.14 | 2.96 | 0.58 | 4.01 | 3.99 | -0.02 | 3.59 | -0.42 | 3.72 | -0.29 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 4.87 | 5.36 | 0.49 | 5.27 | 0.4 | 5.09 | 0.22 | 4.65 | -0.22 | 3.8 | 4.92 | 1.12 | 5.12 | 1.32 | 4.61 | 0.81 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 4.84 | 4.88 | 0.04 | 4.68 | -0.16 | 4.06 | -0.78 | 4.68 | -0.16 | 3.67 | 5 | 1.33 | 4.29 | 0.62 | 3.3 | -0.37 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 7.65 | 5.36 | -2.29 | 5.39 | -2.26 | 6 | -1.65 | 8.03 | 0.38 | 6.89 | 4.63 | -2.26 | 4.64 | -2.25 | 5.2 | -1.69 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.22 | 4.18 | -0.04 | 4.72 | 0.5 | 4.66 | 0.44 | 5.09 | 0.87 | 4.22 | 4.19 | -0.03 | 4.72 | 0.5 | 4.66 | 0.44 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 2.9 | 2.64 | -0.26 | 2.43 | -0.47 | 2.47 | -0.43 | 2.18 | -0.72 | 2.62 | 2.13 | -0.49 | 1.79 | -0.83 | 2.11 | -0.51 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.16 | 4.08 | -0.08 | 4.29 | 0.13 | 4.31 | 0.15 | 3.37 | -0.79 | 6.75 | 4.48 | -2.27 | 4.67 | -2.08 | 5.27 | -1.48 |
| German Marquez | COL | 4.08 | 4.11 | 0.03 | 4.11 | 0.03 | 3.65 | -0.43 | 4.66 | 0.58 | 3.25 | 2.7 | -0.55 | 2.34 | -0.91 | 2.72 | -0.53 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.56 | 4.68 | 0.12 | 4.82 | 0.26 | 4.25 | -0.31 | 6.03 | 1.47 | 3.27 | 4.24 | 0.97 | 4.76 | 1.49 | 4.43 | 1.16 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 4.16 | 3.98 | -0.18 | 3.93 | -0.23 | 3.81 | -0.35 | 3.86 | -0.30 | 2.96 | 2.75 | -0.21 | 2.75 | -0.21 | 2.74 | -0.22 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 3.83 | 4.67 | 0.84 | 4.52 | 0.69 | 4.47 | 0.64 | 3.70 | -0.13 | |||||||
| Matt Boyd | DET | 5.3 | 5.11 | -0.19 | 5.05 | -0.25 | 4.47 | -0.83 | 5.74 | 0.44 | 4.19 | 4.31 | 0.12 | 4.67 | 0.48 | 3.62 | -0.57 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 3.83 | 4.91 | 1.08 | 4.72 | 0.89 | 4.13 | 0.3 | 4.36 | 0.53 | 1.65 | 6.16 | 4.51 | 6.14 | 4.49 | 4.32 | 2.67 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 3.71 | 3.96 | 0.25 | 3.69 | -0.02 | 3.39 | -0.32 | 3.96 | 0.25 | 2.36 | 3.15 | 0.79 | 2.95 | 0.59 | 2.59 | 0.23 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.59 | 5.55 | 0.96 | 5.6 | 1.01 | 4.94 | 0.35 | 5.81 | 1.22 | 2.33 | 5.81 | 3.48 | 5.68 | 3.35 | 3.93 | 1.6 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 2.83 | 4.87 | 2.04 | 4.84 | 2.01 | 4.9 | 2.07 | 5.16 | 2.33 | 1.69 | 4.39 | 2.7 | 4.27 | 2.58 | 3.31 | 1.62 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 5.56 | 4.71 | -0.85 | 4.84 | -0.72 | 4.27 | -1.29 | 5.76 | 0.20 | 5.4 | 4.88 | -0.52 | 5.31 | -0.09 | 5.72 | 0.32 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 4.57 | 5.47 | 0.9 | 5.33 | 0.76 | 5.32 | 0.75 | 6.40 | 1.83 | 4.34 | 4.93 | 0.59 | 4.43 | 0.09 | 3.69 | -0.65 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 4.5 | 4.73 | 0.23 | 4.58 | 0.08 | 4.26 | -0.24 | 5.72 | 1.22 | 7.61 | 5.11 | -2.5 | 5.22 | -2.39 | 5.61 | -2 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 3.43 | 3.7 | 0.27 | 3.3 | -0.13 | 3.25 | -0.18 | 3.05 | -0.38 | 1.48 | 3.41 | 1.93 | 3.06 | 1.58 | 2.5 | 1.02 |
| Trevor Cahill | KAN | 4.15 | 3.75 | -0.4 | 3.51 | -0.64 | 3.82 | -0.33 | 2.94 | -1.21 | 5.7 | 4.22 | -1.48 | 3.98 | -1.72 | 5.23 | -0.47 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 4.38 | 5.08 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 0.32 | 3.89 | -0.49 | 6.08 | 1.70 | 3.67 | 4.75 | 1.08 | 4.05 | 0.38 | 3.08 | -0.59 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 5.34 | 5.08 | -0.26 | 4.94 | -0.4 | 4.87 | -0.47 | 4.96 | -0.38 | 2.37 | 5.2 | 2.83 | 5.54 | 3.17 | 5.16 | 2.79 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 2.84 | 3.31 | 0.47 | 3.22 | 0.38 | 3.18 | 0.34 | 2.52 | -0.32 | 2 | 3.69 | 1.69 | 3.64 | 1.64 | 2.82 | 0.82 |
None of our choices today are very far out of line with their season estimators.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 0.289 | 0.243 | -0.046 | 29.4% | 0.126 | 20.3% | 84.3% | 87.6 | 11.80% | 33.60% | 119 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.298 | 0.298 | 0 | 42.9% | 0.219 | 12.6% | 86.0% | 87.2 | 6.80% | 32.90% | 249 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.280 | 0.266 | -0.014 | 60.6% | 0.175 | 14.8% | 84.2% | 84.2 | 3.20% | 24.50% | 249 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.284 | 0.289 | 0.005 | 39.9% | 0.197 | 15.0% | 85.6% | 85.2 | 5.40% | 31.90% | 204 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.308 | 0.327 | 0.019 | 43.9% | 0.23 | 6.9% | 85.7% | 87.5 | 5.10% | 37.50% | 312 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.315 | 0.378 | 0.063 | 39.1% | 0.261 | 12.5% | 90.6% | 89.6 | 6.50% | 40.30% | 231 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.295 | 0.231 | -0.064 | 21.4% | 0.25 | 0.0% | 87.5% | ||||
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.303 | 0.302 | -0.001 | 47.7% | 0.194 | 10.6% | 78.6% | 86.9 | 5.80% | 33.10% | 260 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.305 | 0.293 | -0.012 | 34.3% | 0.224 | 4.6% | 83.0% | 87.7 | 8.40% | 33.00% | 203 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.302 | 0.313 | 0.011 | 42.4% | 0.223 | 10.2% | 89.5% | 89 | 6.40% | 35.90% | 281 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.297 | 0.318 | 0.021 | 40.5% | 0.199 | 9.2% | 88.8% | 88.1 | 5.80% | 33.80% | 308 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 0.283 | 0.295 | 0.012 | 42.2% | 0.198 | 12.0% | 88.9% | 87.4 | 6.00% | 35.50% | 335 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.292 | 0.286 | -0.006 | 50.7% | 0.185 | 6.7% | 88.9% | 89 | 8.90% | 41.80% | 146 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.309 | 0.344 | 0.035 | 42.4% | 0.216 | 16.7% | 84.9% | 86.5 | 6.30% | 30.40% | 253 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.300 | 0.276 | -0.024 | 43.9% | 0.194 | 14.0% | 90.1% | 84.8 | 4.60% | 31.60% | 263 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.294 | 0.318 | 0.024 | 47.1% | 0.222 | 5.5% | 83.2% | 86.3 | 5.30% | 29.80% | 302 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.288 | 0.298 | 0.01 | 39.6% | 0.21 | 9.2% | 89.8% | 87.6 | 6.50% | 35.10% | 339 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 0.285 | 0.266 | -0.019 | 40.0% | 0.212 | 10.9% | 88.6% | 88.7 | 6.60% | 37.10% | 167 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 0.320 | 0.363 | 0.043 | 45.2% | 0.175 | 9.7% | 84.2% | 83.9 | 5.70% | 28.20% | 174 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 0.293 | 0.293 | 0 | 48.2% | 0.125 | 13.6% | 83.0% | 84 | 4.90% | 34.40% | 61 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 0.292 | 0.303 | 0.011 | 42.5% | 0.239 | 6.7% | 83.7% | 87.8 | 5.80% | 35.80% | 137 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 0.290 | 0.285 | -0.005 | 56.7% | 0.207 | 3.3% | 85.8% | 86.3 | 5.50% | 38.90% | 275 |
| Trevor Cahill | KAN | 0.299 | 0.337 | 0.038 | 56.7% | 0.169 | 6.4% | 87.5% | 85.1 | 6.10% | 27.20% | 180 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.317 | 0.303 | -0.014 | 46.2% | 0.23 | 8.5% | 88.9% | 85.1 | 4.60% | 31.10% | 392 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 0.279 | 0.295 | 0.016 | 45.0% | 0.205 | 17.9% | 88.0% | 87.4 | 6.10% | 34.30% | 312 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.294 | 0.272 | -0.022 | 47.3% | 0.167 | 10.2% | 85.6% | 85.7 | 7.00% | 27.30% | 359 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Corey Kluber (1) is having his most dominant season and deserves some kind of award. He’s in a tough spot, one of the worst on the slate, but he’s matchup proof and the big boy has been slumping since the break.
Value Tier Two
Trevor Cahill has faltered in each of his last two starts, the most concerning aspect that the strikeouts have cratered. It was just two starts though against contact prone teams. On a sketchy board with only one really trustable arm, we have to hope for more against a team that strikes out a bit more often in his first home start for the Royals. The good news is his cost is just $6.2K on DraftKings, making him a good pairing with Kluber. He could be our third tier guy on FanDuel.
Alex Wood does not appear to have the same stuff he had a month ago, but has remained a quality contact manager for the most part in July. I’m a bit concerned with the SwStr% dropping off every start in July, but not ready to write him off yet. He’s in a good spot to continue with strong contact management with the biggest RH Atlanta threat out. Cost is becoming an issue now. I’m not sure he should cost more than Kluber on DraftKings despite the matchup advantage and would drop him a further tier there.
Value Tier Three
We’re skipping the third tier today in order to illustrate the gap between pitchers today. Add Wood to this third tier on DraftKings or Cahill on FanDuel if you’d like.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Sonny Gray may be priced nearly perfectly if not a bit high at right around $9K in Cleveland. Today, that’s a pitcher we’re strongly considering.
Eduardo Rodriguez may be in a better spot than the numbers dictate against the White Sox and is still missing bats at the same rate as before the injury. Overall results have not been that strong, but we don’t really have the luxury of waiting on those on this board. Let’s just hope he can solve his new HR problem today.
Rick Porcello is probably a downgrade from ERod at a much higher DraftKings price, where I’d put him more in the McHugh camp (wavering). On FanDuel the trade off with less upside, but Chicago being worse vs RHP is probably a wash for nearly the same cost.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window