Advanced Stats – Pitching: Tuesday, August 22nd
Today, both sites have done the humane thing and omitted the late double-header between the Marlins and Phillies (pitchers for Game Two still listed), leaving us with a 14 game slate. It’s not a very top heavy one, but it’s pretty deep and fairly strong. While the top pitcher appears somewhat obvious from me, it’s tough to separate a good group of pitchers after that.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Stewart | LOS | 3.4 | 4.67 | 4.46 | 40.4% | 0.97 | 5.07 | 3.76 | PIT | 94 | 88 | 118 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 1.1 | 3.32 | 5.86 | 47.0% | 1.09 | 3.58 | 2.35 | BOS | 93 | 92 | 113 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | -4.6 | 3.89 | 5.45 | 53.1% | 0.94 | 3.56 | 3.94 | WAS | 96 | 104 | 59 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 2.1 | 3.54 | 6.12 | 45.0% | 0.96 | 3.12 | 2.53 | TOR | 91 | 90 | 71 |
| Chris Rowley | TOR | -0.7 | 6.15 | 5.05 | 42.4% | 0.96 | 6.15 | TAM | 99 | 101 | 99 | |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -3.9 | 4.19 | 6.06 | 60.7% | 0.98 | 4.45 | 4.05 | STL | 104 | 100 | 125 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3 | 3.79 | 6.1 | 37.9% | 1.06 | 4.05 | 2.81 | COL | 79 | 96 | 129 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.57 | 45.7% | 1.09 | 4.98 | 5.79 | CLE | 104 | 103 | 117 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 6.2 | 4.84 | 4.48 | 44.1% | 1.02 | 5.53 | 5.21 | CHC | 94 | 96 | 118 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | -1.6 | 3.79 | 5.58 | 50.6% | 0.97 | 3.43 | 3.59 | LOS | 100 | 107 | 91 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | -4.1 | 3.91 | 6.38 | 43.2% | 0.93 | 3.68 | 4.01 | MIL | 95 | 93 | 108 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -2 | 4.27 | 5.69 | 49.9% | 0.93 | 4.3 | 4.23 | SFO | 82 | 83 | 118 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 4 | 3.98 | 6.18 | 43.2% | 1.02 | 4.13 | 4.33 | CIN | 100 | 99 | 125 |
| Jon Gray | COL | -3 | 3.83 | 5.45 | 45.5% | 1.06 | 3.92 | 3.88 | KAN | 90 | 92 | 116 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 1.8 | 4.96 | 5.38 | 43.8% | 0.96 | 5.05 | 5.26 | PHI | 95 | 87 | 77 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | -0.3 | 4.75 | 5.63 | 51.0% | 0.98 | 4.89 | 4.03 | CHW | 91 | 88 | 102 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -0.3 | 4.8 | 5.61 | 46.6% | 0.98 | 4.88 | 6.3 | SDG | 80 | 87 | 56 |
| Lucas Giolito | CHW | -0.1 | 5.97 | 4. | 40.5% | 0.98 | 5.77 | MIN | 93 | 101 | 141 | |
| Luke Sims | ATL | -1 | 5.53 | 5.53 | 37.3% | 1 | 5.53 | 5.73 | SEA | 94 | 103 | 122 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 7 | 5.14 | 3.64 | 43.6% | 1 | 3.18 | 6.12 | ATL | 89 | 98 | 118 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.9 | 3.68 | 6.2 | 48.6% | 0.98 | 3.93 | 8.94 | DET | 113 | 94 | 120 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 1 | 4.78 | 5.07 | 37.3% | 0.98 | 5.15 | 4.99 | NYY | 98 | 88 | 103 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.8 | 4.33 | 5.18 | 38.9% | 0.96 | 3.41 | 3.56 | MIA | 98 | 96 | 89 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -5.2 | 4.12 | 5.66 | 50.7% | 0.91 | 3.99 | 3.24 | NYM | 89 | 93 | 78 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | -9.8 | 5.23 | 6.02 | 0.549 | 1.02 | 4.94 | 4.99 | BAL | 103 | 99 | 107 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 4.1 | 4.46 | 5.86 | 0.427 | 0.91 | 4.41 | 4.59 | TEX | 82 | 101 | 156 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 2 | 4.47 | 6. | 0.482 | 0.94 | 4.42 | 6 | HOU | 122 | 127 | 107 |
| Tommy Milone | NYM | 1.7 | 4.47 | 4.85 | 0.43 | 0.91 | 4.39 | ARI | 80 | 74 | 69 | |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 0.8 | 4.48 | 5.41 | 0.506 | 0.91 | 6.2 | 7.79 | ANA | 98 | 97 | 97 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -6 | 4.65 | 5.36 | 0.478 | 1.02 | 4.66 | 3.31 | OAK | 87 | 103 | 109 |
Carlos Carrasco has struck out 19 of his last 48 batters and has had a double digit SwStr% in 19 of his last 21 starts. His ground ball rate is the lowest of his career, but right around league average, as is his hard hit rate, while his 8.9% Barrels/BBE is a bit high. The Red Sox are a below average offense, but one that does not strike out much (4.2 K-BB%, but a 0.6 Hard-Soft% last seven days) in a positive run environment.
Charlie Morton had a 47.4 Hard% without a single softly hit ball two starts back in Texas. Even with that start included, he has a -8.5 Hard-Soft%, while maintaining his 50% ground ball rate and 17.0 K-BB% since returning from a DL stint at the beginning of July (eight starts). While the Nationals have been an above average offense against RHP and ground ball pitchers (125 sOPS+), they’re missing their top LH bat, and well, nearly half of their Opening Day lineup at this point. They have a 26.4 K% and 11.4 HR/FB over the last week, but with an 11.4 BB% and 26.0 Hard-Soft%.
Chris Archer is actually third in the majors with 207 total strikeouts. His 29.7 K% is best on today’s board and that includes exactly one-third of batters faced over the last month. His 88.8 mph aEV is second highest on the board among those with more than 25 innings, though it hasn’t translated to an extraordinarily high rate of barrels or home runs, though he is up to 20 bombs on the season now. The Blue Jays have been a below average offense all year, with everyone except Smoak having down years. They’ve been particularly bad over the last week (16.0 K-BB%, 7.3 Hard-Soft%).
Danny Duffy has struck out exactly eight in three straight starts, doubling the number of times he’s reached that many this year. The problem is that he’s allowed 16 runs (12 earned) over 17 innings. While he’s allowed just 11 HRs all season, just three of them have come at home, all in the same start. The Rockies have one of the worst road offenses in baseball (16.8 K-BB%, 8.0 Hard-Soft%). They have been better against LHP and Kansas City is still a positive run environment, but a park and defense that fits this pitcher’s fly ball skillset.
Jameson Taillon allowed four runs through five innings to a hot St Louis team last time out, but has now struck out at least seven in three straight starts (22 of 74 total batters faced). While his SwStr% has struggled to support his strikeout rate, it’s been above 9% in two of those three starts, though hasn’t seen double digits in a month now. His ground ball rate has been below 45% in five straight starts now, dropping him below 50% for the season, while his hard hit rate has been above 40% in each of his last two starts. For the season, he has a 15.4 K-BB% with quality contact management (85.1 mph aEV, 30.8% 95+ mph EV). He’s in a dangerous spot against the Dodgers, but in a favorable park, while they’re missing their top LH power bat tonight (Bellinger).
Jeff Samardzija has experienced a drop in strikeout rate to league average over the last month and a drop in swinging strike rate even further than that, while he’s allowed at least three ERs in seven of his last eight starts, though has only gone fewer than six innings in one of those starts. His 21.2 K-BB% is still 10th among qualifiers and he’s in a high strikeout spot tonight against the Brewers (25.5 K% vs RHP), in a park that might help mute some of their power (17.5 HR/FB on the road, 19.2 HR/FB vs RHP, 27.7 HR/FB over the last week).
Jimmy Nelson had been dominating LHBs with tons of strikeouts and an above average ground ball rate since the beginning of May, though they were still making hard contact against him often when they did put it in play. RHBs had just been pounding the ball into the ground weakly. However, while he did strikeout seven in his last start with a -10.5 Hard-Soft%, he had just a 31.6 GB% and allowed five runs (three earned) after getting bombed by Cincinnati for 10 runs (nine earned) with four strikeouts, a 41.2 GB% and 41.2 Hard% the start before. He’s still one of just four pitchers with a strikeout rate above 25% today (26.8%) and that’s actually increased over the last month. His 49.6 GB% and 31.1 Hard% are right on his career rates now. He’s in a strong spot in San Francisco where run prevention and contact management should make up for a small loss in strikeout upside.
Jon Gray has a 14.7 K-BB% that is still a bit above average, though his strikeout rate (22.1%) has suffered a bit this year, while his 8.5 SwStr% is actually below average. He does have a career high 51.1 GB% though with an 84.6 mph aEV that’s lowest on the board among those with at least 25 IP. While the exit velocity has been creeping up recently, he’s still only allowed hard contact on more than one-third of batted balls in 25% of his starts this year, which says a lot for a Colorado pitcher. He gets a park upgrade, as every park that’s not Coors is, but it’s more of a neutral spot against a slightly below average offense in a positive run environment.
Patrick Corbin still has a bit of a contact problem, as Arizona pitchers often do, but he has a 49.3 GB% plus a 19.8 K-BB% over his last 10 starts now. He gets a massive park bump at Citi Field in a pretty great spot against a struggling Mets offense with a 17.7 K-BB% vs LHP this year.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Brock Stewart (.222 – 70.8% – 7.4) has missed most of the season. He’s run up a 20+ K-BB% at his last several stops at the minors, but has just a 9.8 K-BB% through 50 major league innings. He hasn’t gone past four innings in either of his two major league starts this year, walking three with just one strikeout in his most recent one.
Lance Lynn (.232 – 82% – 14.5) has a high of four strikeouts, done once, over his last four starts. He does have one of the top matchups on the board in a high strikeout spot against the Padres (25.3 K% vs RHP), but he’s not worth more than $7K at this point.
Paul Blackburn (.278 – 76.9% – 10.2) doesn’t have any strong outliers, but just a 9.8 K% a major league pitcher can’t possibly thrive on for very long.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Lucas Giolito is one of the more polarizing pitching prospects in the league. A velocity drop for a second straight season hasn’t helped things, nor has his 10.7 BB% at AAA this season. Some are pointing to a 1.71 ERA over the last month, in which he has a 22 K% with an 8.6 BB% as a sign that he might be ready, but that’s much closer to average than spectacular. Fangraphs did have him graded as the 19th best prospect in all of baseball in March, but that was prior to embarking on his second straight poor minor league campaign. In 21.1 major league innings last year, he walked one more than he struck out. He’s not debuting in a great spot for the White Sox. The Twins have been hammering, even without Sano over the last week (23.5 HR/FB). He’s not expensive though.
John Lackey has increased his strikeouts over the last month, but while his ERA is lower, the peripherals remain well above four. Only three pitchers have allowed more than his 29 HRs and it’s been 12 starts since he recorded a seventh inning out. It’s not exactly a favorable spot in Cincinnati either.
Mashiro Tanaka makes his return from the DL tonight. Shoulder issues are concerning, as is the workload potential for a pitcher who hasn’t pitched in nearly two weeks.
Ricky Nolasco can miss some bats, but his 31 HRs allowed is tied for the major league lead, while his 89.8 mph aEV is highest on the board among those with more than 25 innings.
Clayton Richard has been a bit better recently. His 58.5 GB% is second best in baseball among qualifiers, while his strikeout and swinging strike rates have been league average over the last month. The Cardinals have been really good though (29.0 Hard-Soft% last seven days) and are now even a league average offense against LHP (10.2 BB%).
Ubaldo Jimenez has some deceptively strong numbers over the last week. Look at the SwStr% and his game log.
Kyle Gibson has a ground ball rate above 50% with a league average SwStr%. I’d like to see him get traded this off-season.
Tanner Roark is in Houston.
Matt Boyd has been missing more bats, but has walked 10 of his last 76 batters too and hasn’t finished six innings since July.
Tommy Milone may have the top matchup on the board going by the numbers, but I still can’t fathom why the Diamondbacks are so bad vs LHP and he’s still Tommy Milone.
Luke Sims has failed to exceed three strikeouts in any of his four starts.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Stewart | Dodgers | L2 Years | 18.7% | 8.9% | Road | 18.1% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.9% | 6.5% | Home | 24.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 39.6% | 6.3% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 23.8% | 8.9% | Home | 25.9% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 11.5% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 27.9% | 8.1% | Home | 31.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 3.9% |
| Chris Rowley | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 13.0% | 13.0% | Road | L14 Days | 13.0% | 13.0% | ||
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 15.0% | 7.4% | Road | 13.6% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 8.1% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 24.3% | 6.3% | Home | 21.7% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 4.0% |
| Doug Fister | Red Sox | L2 Years | 15.8% | 8.6% | Road | 16.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 16.7% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 18.2% | 9.9% | Home | 14.7% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 19.6% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.6% | 5.8% | Home | 21.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 8.3% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 21.8% | 5.4% | Home | 21.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 3.7% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 21.0% | 8.9% | Road | 20.7% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 7.8% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.8% | 7.1% | Road | 22.6% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 13.0% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 24.4% | 8.0% | Road | 25.0% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 8.3% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.5% | 8.2% | Road | 16.7% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 4.2% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 16.2% | 9.0% | Road | 15.8% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 7.0% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 18.8% | 9.9% | Home | 18.0% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 15.1% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | L2 Years | 10.9% | 11.9% | Home | 8.9% | 10.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Luke Sims | Braves | L2 Years | 10.9% | 5.9% | Home | 12.0% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 7.8% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Years | 10.0% | 3.3% | Road | 25.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.2% | 4.8% | Road | 19.4% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 25.0% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.4% | 8.5% | Home | 17.4% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 10.9% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 24.3% | 9.8% | Home | 29.6% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 11.1% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.1% | 7.5% | Road | 19.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 3.5% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Years | 9.8% | 7.1% | Road | 5.1% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 10.4% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.3% | 6.2% | Home | 18.0% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 8.5% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.2% | 8.5% | Road | 18.2% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 13.2% |
| Tommy Milone | Mets | L2 Years | 16.7% | 6.4% | Home | 16.5% | 5.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 21.7% | 11.4% | Road | 20.0% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 22.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.0% | 10.6% | Home | 19.2% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 4.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 17.8% | 8.9% | RH | 18.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 17.5% | 7.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.2% | 8.9% | RH | 19.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 16.2% | 12.0% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.2% | 8.7% | RH | 20.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 26.4% | 11.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.2% | 9.5% | RH | 20.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.3% | 7.3% |
| Rays | Home | 26.0% | 9.4% | RH | 25.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.8% | 10.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.3% | 9.8% | LH | 20.7% | 10.2% | L7Days | 23.1% | 6.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.3% | 7.5% | LH | 23.6% | 8.0% | L7Days | 18.9% | 13.1% |
| Indians | Home | 19.2% | 10.0% | RH | 19.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.1% | 8.7% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.5% | 9.4% | RH | 22.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.9% | 9.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.4% | 10.7% | RH | 22.3% | 10.3% | L7Days | 18.6% | 11.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 25.0% | 8.6% | RH | 25.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.9% |
| Giants | Home | 18.8% | 7.2% | RH | 19.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.0% | 8.1% |
| Reds | Home | 21.5% | 9.5% | RH | 20.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.1% | 12.7% |
| Royals | Home | 18.9% | 6.7% | RH | 20.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 18.1% | 7.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.7% | 8.5% | RH | 23.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 22.1% | 5.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.2% | 7.4% | RH | 22.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 16.8% | 8.1% |
| Padres | Road | 25.9% | 7.2% | RH | 25.3% | 7.6% | L7Days | 28.4% | 7.8% |
| Twins | Road | 21.7% | 9.3% | RH | 22.3% | 9.7% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.7% | 7.4% | RH | 20.8% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.3% |
| Braves | Home | 19.3% | 7.0% | LH | 18.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.6% | 7.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.7% | 8.9% | RH | 22.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.8% | 9.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.4% | 9.1% | LH | 23.7% | 10.0% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.3% | 6.7% | RH | 20.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.9% | 9.5% |
| Mets | Home | 20.4% | 8.3% | LH | 24.4% | 6.7% | L7Days | 22.4% | 8.1% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.6% | 7.2% | RH | 21.5% | 6.6% | L7Days | 18.4% | 5.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.3% | 8.0% | RH | 23.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.5% | 14.2% |
| Astros | Home | 16.5% | 7.8% | RH | 17.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 15.2% | 6.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.2% | 8.5% | LH | 25.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 27.1% | 7.8% |
| Angels | Home | 18.3% | 7.9% | RH | 19.5% | 8.2% | L7Days | 16.8% | 12.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 24.9% | 9.2% | RH | 24.9% | 9.3% | L7Days | 24.7% | 8.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Stewart | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.6% | 13.4% | 3.9% | 2017 | 21.5% | 7.4% | -4.7% | Road | 26.4% | 22.5% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 33.3% | 20.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 33.4% | 15.7% | 16.9% | 2017 | 31.9% | 14.3% | 14.6% | Home | 36.6% | 20.7% | 21.7% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 11.1% | 23.1% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 27.0% | 14.3% | 7.4% | 2017 | 29.3% | 13.9% | 8.0% | Home | 26.6% | 16.1% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 0.0% | 29.0% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 36.6% | 14.2% | 20.8% | 2017 | 38.9% | 12.7% | 24.4% | Home | 36.7% | 10.7% | 21.1% | L14 Days | 45.2% | 16.7% | 35.5% |
| Chris Rowley | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 23.5% | 0.0% | 8.8% | 2017 | 23.5% | 0.0% | 8.8% | Road | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 8.8% | |||
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 30.3% | 14.7% | 10.6% | 2017 | 33.6% | 17.6% | 16.0% | Road | 29.8% | 19.2% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 38.6% | 0.0% | 15.9% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 33.0% | 11.0% | 15.6% | 2017 | 30.8% | 7.3% | 13.9% | Home | 36.2% | 10.1% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 9.1% | 15.6% |
| Doug Fister | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.1% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 2017 | 36.2% | 13.0% | 22.4% | Road | 32.3% | 15.2% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 46.7% | 14.3% | 46.7% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 30.4% | 15.9% | 14.0% | 2017 | 30.3% | 17.6% | 13.8% | Home | 34.4% | 26.7% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 22.2% | 38.5% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.9% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 2017 | 30.5% | 12.0% | 7.1% | Home | 32.5% | 12.8% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 46.7% | 20.0% | 36.7% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 30.7% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 2017 | 29.8% | 15.1% | 9.4% | Home | 30.6% | 10.2% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 11.8% | 20.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.9% | 13.9% | 10.2% | 2017 | 31.4% | 13.2% | 8.6% | Road | 33.1% | 14.9% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.9% | 16.1% | 17.2% | 2017 | 33.3% | 19.5% | 18.0% | Road | 34.7% | 18.6% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 16.7% | 3.7% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.6% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 2017 | 30.2% | 13.7% | 6.8% | Road | 32.9% | 13.7% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 14.3% | 5.9% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.4% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 2017 | 32.2% | 10.8% | 12.6% | Road | 33.2% | 12.3% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 14.3% | 2.6% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 32.1% | 14.5% | 14.4% | 2017 | 35.7% | 18.9% | 20.3% | Road | 33.3% | 14.4% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.8% | 13.5% | 11.1% | 2017 | 30.5% | 14.5% | 10.7% | Home | 23.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 0.0% | 12.8% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | L2 Years | 36.4% | 29.2% | 22.1% | 2017 | Home | 33.3% | 25.0% | 20.6% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Luke Sims | Braves | L2 Years | 33.8% | 14.8% | 12.5% | 2017 | 33.8% | 14.8% | 12.5% | Home | 35.0% | 18.8% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 9.1% | 10.0% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Years | 34.6% | 26.9% | 15.4% | 2017 | 32.8% | 27.3% | 12.5% | Road | 35.7% | 25.0% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 16.7% | 11.1% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.1% | 16.0% | 13.5% | 2017 | 31.4% | 21.5% | 12.4% | Road | 30.4% | 14.9% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 14.3% | -25.0% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 32.8% | 13.0% | 12.8% | 2017 | 36.3% | 10.4% | 15.6% | Home | 35.0% | 13.4% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 11.1% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 38.7% | 17.6% | 22.9% | 2017 | 38.7% | 17.6% | 22.9% | Home | 37.3% | 21.3% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 22.2% | 16.0% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.0% | 16.0% | 18.3% | 2017 | 32.4% | 16.1% | 14.0% | Road | 33.5% | 20.3% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 0.0% | -4.9% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Years | 25.4% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 2017 | 25.4% | 10.2% | 7.6% | Road | 21.4% | 8.3% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 33.3% | 23.6% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 35.4% | 14.7% | 21.2% | 2017 | 37.5% | 18.9% | 23.1% | Home | 31.8% | 11.5% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 33.3% | 25.7% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.1% | 11.4% | 5.9% | 2017 | 28.0% | 13.3% | 11.9% | Road | 24.3% | 11.7% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 20.0% | -5.1% |
| Tommy Milone | Mets | L2 Years | 31.5% | 18.4% | 12.5% | 2017 | 29.9% | 25.0% | 6.8% | Home | 33.3% | 26.4% | 14.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.7% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 2017 | 33.3% | 13.6% | 20.9% | Road | 29.4% | 13.0% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 16.7% | 27.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.1% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 2017 | 35.5% | 19.5% | 16.8% | Home | 34.8% | 17.5% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 16.7% | -3.4% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 30.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | RH | 30.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 37.5% | 18.3% | 16.8% |
| Red Sox | Road | 32.0% | 11.6% | 11.7% | RH | 33.7% | 11.1% | 15.8% | L7Days | 25.5% | 13.3% | 0.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.4% | 15.1% | 13.2% | RH | 31.8% | 15.1% | 14.9% | L7Days | 39.3% | 11.4% | 26.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 30.8% | 14.3% | 11.1% | RH | 30.4% | 14.5% | 10.5% | L7Days | 28.0% | 12.0% | 7.3% |
| Rays | Home | 36.8% | 15.1% | 18.8% | RH | 34.9% | 16.7% | 16.7% | L7Days | 32.1% | 12.5% | 11.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 32.0% | 12.6% | 12.6% | LH | 34.3% | 13.1% | 16.9% | L7Days | 44.2% | 16.7% | 29.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.2% | 11.4% | 8.0% | LH | 33.1% | 17.0% | 13.1% | L7Days | 39.6% | 20.8% | 21.3% |
| Indians | Home | 30.8% | 12.5% | 12.3% | RH | 33.8% | 12.4% | 16.9% | L7Days | 35.7% | 17.7% | 18.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.8% | 14.9% | 10.4% | RH | 31.4% | 15.5% | 13.6% | L7Days | 32.6% | 18.0% | 13.8% |
| Dodgers | Road | 34.9% | 14.7% | 18.7% | RH | 36.1% | 14.9% | 20.4% | L7Days | 36.8% | 7.6% | 16.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 31.0% | 17.5% | 12.2% | RH | 34.0% | 19.2% | 15.1% | L7Days | 33.3% | 27.7% | 8.6% |
| Giants | Home | 25.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | RH | 28.1% | 8.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 25.6% | 8.6% | 1.5% |
| Reds | Home | 28.6% | 15.8% | 7.6% | RH | 29.7% | 14.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 26.5% | 16.7% | 3.0% |
| Royals | Home | 30.2% | 10.8% | 9.4% | RH | 31.4% | 12.3% | 11.9% | L7Days | 34.8% | 15.4% | 13.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 29.3% | 14.3% | 8.6% | RH | 30.4% | 11.6% | 9.9% | L7Days | 34.0% | 14.0% | 17.0% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.6% | 13.3% | 7.4% | RH | 30.2% | 13.5% | 10.9% | L7Days | 27.6% | 17.1% | 5.0% |
| Padres | Road | 30.8% | 14.9% | 8.9% | RH | 29.8% | 14.1% | 7.2% | L7Days | 27.3% | 9.5% | 4.6% |
| Twins | Road | 31.1% | 12.4% | 13.7% | RH | 33.5% | 13.6% | 17.3% | L7Days | 34.5% | 23.5% | 22.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.8% | 11.3% | 13.6% | RH | 30.6% | 12.3% | 12.4% | L7Days | 32.3% | 8.5% | 11.0% |
| Braves | Home | 29.4% | 11.9% | 9.8% | LH | 29.1% | 15.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 33.5% | 15.5% | 13.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 44.9% | 13.3% | 31.0% | RH | 39.8% | 11.6% | 24.2% | L7Days | 38.3% | 12.3% | 21.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 30.6% | 12.2% | 11.8% | LH | 28.7% | 12.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 26.1% | 17.3% | 5.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.4% | 14.2% | 9.0% | RH | 31.4% | 14.8% | 11.3% | L7Days | 29.4% | 10.0% | 5.1% |
| Mets | Home | 33.6% | 11.7% | 14.4% | LH | 35.3% | 14.3% | 14.8% | L7Days | 33.0% | 15.5% | 11.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 31.2% | 16.7% | 11.2% | RH | 32.3% | 15.8% | 12.1% | L7Days | 32.5% | 19.0% | 14.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.6% | 16.2% | 10.2% | RH | 35.0% | 18.1% | 16.5% | L7Days | 43.7% | 25.4% | 29.3% |
| Astros | Home | 30.8% | 15.4% | 13.2% | RH | 33.2% | 15.5% | 15.9% | L7Days | 30.4% | 11.5% | 13.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.7% | 13.8% | 10.7% | LH | 32.7% | 15.0% | 15.6% | L7Days | 29.7% | 17.2% | 10.9% |
| Angels | Home | 29.0% | 12.7% | 9.8% | RH | 31.3% | 13.8% | 11.6% | L7Days | 30.5% | 25.5% | 7.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 34.1% | 12.3% | 15.9% | RH | 33.4% | 14.7% | 17.3% | L7Days | 24.1% | 21.1% | 6.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Stewart | LOS | 17.1% | 10.0% | 1.71 | 11.6% | 5.2% | 2.23 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 27.9% | 12.8% | 2.18 | 27.7% | 12.0% | 2.31 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 26.0% | 10.7% | 2.43 | 27.1% | 11.4% | 2.38 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 29.7% | 13.4% | 2.22 | 33.3% | 14.0% | 2.38 |
| Chris Rowley | TOR | 13.0% | 14.6% | 0.89 | 13.0% | 14.6% | 0.89 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 16.4% | 8.4% | 1.95 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 1.99 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 21.0% | 11.5% | 1.83 | 26.0% | 11.9% | 2.18 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 18.9% | 7.6% | 2.49 | 21.1% | 7.5% | 2.81 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 15.6% | 10.1% | 1.54 | 16.3% | 9.2% | 1.77 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 22.8% | 8.4% | 2.71 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 3.01 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 24.7% | 10.1% | 2.45 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 2.78 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 26.8% | 11.4% | 2.35 | 28.0% | 11.0% | 2.55 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 20.2% | 10.3% | 1.96 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.86 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 22.1% | 8.5% | 2.60 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 2.59 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 15.9% | 8.3% | 1.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 2.14 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 15.0% | 9.4% | 1.60 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 1.79 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 20.2% | 8.8% | 2.30 | 15.3% | 7.8% | 1.96 |
| Lucas Giolito | CHW | ||||||
| Luke Sims | ATL | 10.9% | 8.0% | 1.36 | 10.9% | 8.0% | 1.36 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 10.8% | 10.0% | 1.08 | 10.3% | 9.5% | 1.08 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 24.7% | 14.8% | 1.67 | 29.9% | 15.0% | 1.99 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.82 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.07 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 24.3% | 8.5% | 2.86 | 25.9% | 9.4% | 2.76 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 21.8% | 11.7% | 1.86 | 24.4% | 14.1% | 1.73 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 9.8% | 5.6% | 1.75 | 10.5% | 5.2% | 2.02 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.69 | 17.7% | 11.7% | 1.51 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 19.3% | 10.0% | 1.93 | 23.4% | 11.2% | 2.09 |
| Tommy Milone | NYM | 18.2% | 8.5% | 2.14 | |||
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 15.7% | 6.0% | 2.62 | 12.9% | 3.5% | 3.69 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 20.7% | 8.0% | 2.59 | 27.6% | 8.9% | 3.10 |
Jeff Samardzija has a 7.5% or lower SwStr rate in each of his last four starts. It’s a concern.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Stewart | LOS | 1.64 | 4.76 | 3.12 | 5.06 | 3.42 | 4.05 | 2.41 | 4.95 | 3.31 | 4 | 6.07 | 2.07 | 6.54 | 2.54 | 6.25 | 2.25 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.76 | 3.51 | -0.25 | 3.45 | -0.31 | 3.51 | -0.25 | 3.16 | -0.60 | 4.39 | 3.57 | -0.82 | 3.55 | -0.84 | 3.4 | -0.99 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 3.69 | 3.87 | 0.18 | 3.66 | -0.03 | 3.68 | -0.01 | 3.70 | 0.01 | 2.53 | 3.77 | 1.24 | 3.49 | 0.96 | 2.61 | 0.08 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 3.84 | 3.39 | -0.45 | 3.33 | -0.51 | 3.2 | -0.64 | 2.66 | -1.18 | 3.62 | 2.78 | -0.84 | 2.82 | -0.8 | 3.49 | -0.13 |
| Chris Rowley | TOR | 2.61 | 6.14 | 3.53 | 5.97 | 3.36 | 3.72 | 1.11 | 7.23 | 4.62 | 2.61 | 6.15 | 3.54 | 5.97 | 3.36 | 3.72 | 1.11 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 4.84 | 4.18 | -0.66 | 3.91 | -0.93 | 4.25 | -0.59 | 5.90 | 1.06 | 3.09 | 3.62 | 0.53 | 3.46 | 0.37 | 3.34 | 0.25 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.82 | 4.32 | 0.5 | 4.45 | 0.63 | 3.43 | -0.39 | 4.18 | 0.36 | 4.15 | 3.71 | -0.44 | 4.09 | -0.06 | 3.2 | -0.95 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 5.56 | 5.05 | -0.51 | 5 | -0.56 | 4.9 | -0.66 | 7.07 | 1.51 | 4.91 | 4.21 | -0.7 | 3.96 | -0.95 | 3.59 | -1.32 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 8.44 | 5.43 | -3.01 | 5.23 | -3.21 | 5.71 | -2.73 | 8.87 | 0.43 | 8.31 | 5.66 | -2.65 | 5.57 | -2.74 | 5.21 | -3.1 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 4.64 | 3.97 | -0.67 | 3.62 | -1.02 | 3.44 | -1.2 | 4.33 | -0.31 | 9.38 | 4.16 | -5.22 | 4.04 | -5.34 | 4.26 | -5.12 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.79 | 3.51 | -1.28 | 3.38 | -1.41 | 3.55 | -1.24 | 3.43 | -1.36 | 3.78 | 4.39 | 0.61 | 4.31 | 0.53 | 3.44 | -0.34 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.74 | 3.4 | -0.34 | 3.13 | -0.61 | 3.06 | -0.68 | 3.41 | -0.33 | 4.94 | 3.22 | -1.72 | 2.72 | -2.22 | 2.46 | -2.48 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 4.67 | 4.49 | -0.18 | 4.66 | -0.01 | 5.5 | 0.83 | 5.71 | 1.04 | 3.29 | 4.33 | 1.04 | 4.75 | 1.46 | 4.75 | 1.46 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 4.74 | 4 | -0.74 | 3.64 | -1.1 | 3.63 | -1.11 | 4.58 | -0.16 | 3.23 | 3.47 | 0.24 | 3.18 | -0.05 | 3.59 | 0.36 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 3.61 | 5.1 | 1.49 | 5.39 | 1.78 | 4.91 | 1.3 | 4.84 | 1.23 | 3.07 | 4.95 | 1.88 | 5 | 1.93 | 4.19 | 1.12 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 6.05 | 5.1 | -0.95 | 4.81 | -1.24 | 5.4 | -0.65 | 6.44 | 0.39 | 5.06 | 4.32 | -0.74 | 4.2 | -0.86 | 4.07 | -0.99 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 3.05 | 4.73 | 1.68 | 4.69 | 1.64 | 4.78 | 1.73 | 4.36 | 1.31 | 2.1 | 5.91 | 3.81 | 5.28 | 3.18 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Lucas Giolito | CHW | ||||||||||||||||
| Luke Sims | ATL | 5.24 | 5.53 | 0.29 | 5.66 | 0.42 | 5.82 | 0.58 | 7.79 | 2.55 | 5.24 | 5.53 | 0.29 | 5.66 | 0.42 | 5.82 | 0.58 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 8.44 | 5.01 | -3.43 | 4.98 | -3.46 | 7.39 | -1.05 | 7.55 | -0.89 | 7.11 | 5.14 | -1.97 | 4.93 | -2.18 | 5.74 | -1.37 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 4.92 | 3.68 | -1.24 | 3.67 | -1.25 | 4.65 | -0.27 | 3.63 | -1.29 | 3 | 3.28 | 0.28 | 3.39 | 0.39 | 3.76 | 0.76 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 5.7 | 5.09 | -0.61 | 5.18 | -0.52 | 4.63 | -1.07 | 6.39 | 0.69 | 5.97 | 4.59 | -1.38 | 5.06 | -0.91 | 4.71 | -1.26 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 6.25 | 4.33 | -1.92 | 4.47 | -1.78 | 5.04 | -1.21 | 5.49 | -0.76 | 8.14 | 3.82 | -4.32 | 3.71 | -4.43 | 3.55 | -4.59 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 4.25 | 3.99 | -0.26 | 3.79 | -0.46 | 4.07 | -0.18 | 5.31 | 1.06 | 3.56 | 3.86 | 0.3 | 3.72 | 0.16 | 3.66 | 0.1 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 3.46 | 5.23 | 1.77 | 4.87 | 1.41 | 4.45 | 0.99 | 5.40 | 1.94 | 3.94 | 4.96 | 1.02 | 4.56 | 0.62 | 4.05 | 0.11 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 5.16 | 4.58 | -0.58 | 4.57 | -0.59 | 5.36 | 0.2 | 6.25 | 1.09 | 5.27 | 4.78 | -0.49 | 4.44 | -0.83 | 5.11 | -0.16 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 4.7 | 4.65 | -0.05 | 4.48 | -0.22 | 4.43 | -0.27 | 4.43 | -0.27 | 3.73 | 4.57 | 0.84 | 4.43 | 0.7 | 4.73 | 1 |
| Tommy Milone | NYM | 7.91 | 4.52 | -3.39 | 4.65 | -3.26 | 6.59 | -1.32 | 6.43 | -1.48 | |||||||
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 7.02 | 6.15 | -0.87 | 6.16 | -0.86 | 6.14 | -0.88 | 6.41 | -0.61 | 6.59 | 7.16 | 0.57 | 6.82 | 0.23 | 6.72 | 0.13 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6.47 | 4.61 | -1.86 | 4.65 | -1.82 | 5.48 | -0.99 | 6.99 | 0.52 | 4.13 | 3.62 | -0.51 | 3.8 | -0.33 | 3.74 | -0.39 |
Chris Archer has a .321 BABIP and while his profile doesn’t look too bad, there’s a lot of hard contact on balls in play that doesn’t appear to be showing up entirely in his line drive rate.
Danny Duffy has a 7.3 HR/FB that is somewhat countered by a .320 BABIP, though there’s still some separation between his ERA and SIERA/xFIP.
Jameson Taillon has a .367 BABIP with a 25.3 LD%. Yeah, that’s bad, but remember that line drive rate is backward looking and not at all forward projecting, so there’s certainly still hope, especially considering that he doesn’t allow too much hard contact.
Jeff Samardzija has a .325 BABIP and 66.1 LOB%. The line drive rate is a bit high, but the overall contact profile isn’t bad. The defense has been though.
Jimmy Nelson has a .343 BABIP and now a 10% unearned run rate. Frankly, the BABIP profile is not that strong (nor is the defense), but it’s not terrible.
Jon Gray has a .357 BABIP and a large part of that is Coors and defense. He’s allowed a few line drives, but the rest of his profile is favorable.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Stewart | LOS | 0.280 | 0.222 | -0.058 | 38.1% | 0.19 | 3.7% | 85.8% | 80.7 | 1.50% | 20.00% | 65 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.303 | 0.298 | -0.005 | 44.1% | 0.214 | 9.5% | 85.3% | 87 | 8.90% | 34.60% | 370 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 0.295 | 0.289 | -0.006 | 50.7% | 0.215 | 10.1% | 83.1% | 85.5 | 4.50% | 31.70% | 287 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.284 | 0.321 | 0.037 | 41.3% | 0.221 | 9.6% | 81.5% | 88.8 | 6.20% | 39.20% | 434 |
| Chris Rowley | TOR | 0.307 | 0.265 | -0.042 | 42.4% | 0.182 | 15.4% | 81.0% | 82.5 | 0.00% | 20.60% | 34 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.307 | 0.350 | 0.043 | 58.5% | 0.212 | 5.9% | 89.3% | 86 | 4.30% | 32.60% | 512 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.299 | 0.320 | 0.021 | 38.2% | 0.203 | 9.9% | 86.0% | 86.3 | 5.30% | 32.10% | 374 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 0.305 | 0.326 | 0.021 | 44.0% | 0.216 | 6.5% | 88.4% | 87.3 | 5.80% | 40.60% | 138 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 0.293 | 0.391 | 0.098 | 43.7% | 0.284 | 5.9% | 87.5% | 86.4 | 5.90% | 34.60% | 188 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.308 | 0.367 | 0.059 | 48.6% | 0.253 | 10.7% | 89.8% | 85.1 | 5.10% | 30.80% | 295 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.317 | 0.325 | 0.008 | 42.3% | 0.238 | 8.8% | 84.9% | 86.6 | 5.90% | 32.10% | 476 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.300 | 0.343 | 0.043 | 49.6% | 0.226 | 7.0% | 85.0% | 85.2 | 4.10% | 31.90% | 417 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.283 | 0.272 | -0.011 | 42.7% | 0.192 | 10.1% | 87.0% | 87.4 | 7.00% | 36.00% | 400 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 0.302 | 0.357 | 0.055 | 51.1% | 0.221 | 11.8% | 91.9% | 84.6 | 5.20% | 31.80% | 192 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 0.293 | 0.245 | -0.048 | 40.3% | 0.184 | 10.2% | 89.3% | 85.3 | 9.30% | 30.60% | 389 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.298 | 0.335 | 0.037 | 52.0% | 0.221 | 4.2% | 88.8% | 88 | 7.60% | 36.20% | 370 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.294 | 0.232 | -0.062 | 44.3% | 0.181 | 11.2% | 82.4% | 86.5 | 6.10% | 29.50% | 410 |
| Lucas Giolito | CHW | 0.288 | ||||||||||
| Luke Sims | ATL | 0.292 | 0.303 | 0.011 | 37.3% | 0.267 | 7.4% | 87.6% | 83.8 | 5.00% | 31.30% | 80 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 0.279 | 0.345 | 0.066 | 45.3% | 0.203 | 4.5% | 90.1% | 89.8 | 12.50% | 48.40% | 64 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.290 | 0.304 | 0.014 | 48.4% | 0.179 | 12.3% | 84.8% | 88 | 9.30% | 36.00% | 389 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.309 | 0.354 | 0.045 | 39.0% | 0.216 | 14.8% | 84.5% | 85.7 | 6.00% | 29.70% | 300 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.297 | 0.320 | 0.023 | 38.9% | 0.198 | 9.3% | 87.3% | 88.1 | 8.30% | 37.60% | 266 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.294 | 0.342 | 0.048 | 49.3% | 0.204 | 10.9% | 87.6% | 87.5 | 7.00% | 35.20% | 458 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 0.292 | 0.278 | -0.014 | 54.9% | 0.185 | 4.1% | 91.1% | 86.5 | 2.70% | 35.10% | 185 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.285 | 0.311 | 0.026 | 42.2% | 0.203 | 7.9% | 84.6% | 89.8 | 9.70% | 40.70% | 445 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.293 | 0.290 | -0.003 | 47.8% | 0.196 | 7.4% | 84.5% | 86.3 | 5.90% | 32.70% | 422 |
| Tommy Milone | NYM | 0.320 | 0.349 | 0.029 | 36.2% | 0.259 | 18.2% | 88.4% | 86.4 | 11.10% | 35.00% | 117 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 0.289 | 0.266 | -0.023 | 44.9% | 0.205 | 6.8% | 91.8% | 85.5 | 6.20% | 29.50% | 129 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.315 | 0.315 | 0 | 44.6% | 0.195 | 8.3% | 88.7% | 88.3 | 8.00% | 39.20% | 375 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Chris Archer (1) is tonight’s top overall pitcher. He’s had some hard contact issues that are showing up more in his BABIP than HR rate, but those issues mean less when striking out 30% of batters faced without control issues. He’s also in a very favorable spot against a below average Toronto lineup.
Value Tier Two
Jeff Samardzija (3t) has been faltering of late, but gets to face a high power offense in a big park where he’ll hopefully be able to rejuvenate his strikeout rate due to their extreme swing and miss tendencies.
Carlos Carrasco (2) has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (27.9%), but does have some issues with contact occasionally. The Red Sox are lacking in power, but don’t strike out a lot in a difficult park for pitchers. He’s the second most expensive pitcher on either site.
Charlie Morton (3t) is one of just four pitchers with a strikeout rate above 25% tonight (26%). Over the last month and a half (eight starts), he has maintained both that and his 50% ground ball rate, while dominating contact authority (-8.5 Hard-Soft%). The Nationals still have a few potent bats, even with the All-Star and MVP quality ones they are missing.
Danny Duffy is striking out more batters and gets to host the Rockies, which is always a plus when you get them outside of Coors. They have been nearly league average against LHP and well above average against fly ball pitchers (113 sOPS+) but you’d have to wonder how much Coors adds to the latter.
Value Tier Three
Jameson Taillon has struggled a bit with contact management most recently and while the strikeout rate is up, you’re always skeptical when the best a guy can do is a league average SwStr% to go along with that. The Dodgers are a difficult matchup even without their Rookie of the Year and even MVP contender, but it looks a bit more favorable and he costs less than $7.5K.
Jon Gray costs just $7K on FanDuel. While his strikeouts are down, he’s still missing enough bats to be useful in conjunction with a high ground ball rate and limited hard contact. While he’s not in a great spot in Kansas City, every game pitched outside Coors is an upgrade.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jimmy Nelson got absolutely bombed two starts back and while the results weren’t there, he did at least have better underlying numbers in his last start, though still a below average ground ball rate in consecutive starts for the first time since May. He’s the third most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, though only tied for fourth on FanDuel in a favorable spot, but more for contact suppression than strikeouts.
Patrick Corbin has greatly increased his strikeouts and finds himself in a very favorable spot in New York. The price is getting up there though and he still does struggle with contact occasionally.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window