Advanced Stats – Pitching: Tuesday, July 18th
A quick note to let everyone know that there will not be a pitching article tomorrow before getting to tonight’s full slate where lack of information is the prevailing theme. Eight of today’s starters have not appeared in a major league game in over two weeks and two additional ones have fewer than three major league starts with neither having any prospect allure. The good news is Kershaw. And maybe Robbie Ray. Dinelson Lamet is in Colorado.
That’s it. I may have just named all of today’s usable pitchers. Yeah, I’ll go with the three guys with a 30% strikeout rate on a crap board. If you believe that to be chalky, I’m even omitting one. Kershaw could set some kind of full slate ownership record today.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 4.1 | 4.53 | 5.22 | 39.0% | 0.94 | 5.06 | PHI | 72 | 81 | 82 | |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | -4.2 | 4.6 | 5.87 | 48.9% | 1.39 | 4.53 | 8.12 | SDG | 74 | 85 | 135 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 1.8 | 4.48 | 5.68 | 43.9% | 1.04 | 3.76 | NYY | 100 | 118 | 58 | |
| Blake Snell | TAM | -0.7 | 4.9 | 4.86 | 38.0% | 0.93 | 4.65 | 5.75 | OAK | 109 | 77 | 89 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | -5.8 | 4.11 | 5. | 40.2% | 0.94 | 3.89 | 5.33 | SEA | 99 | 107 | 118 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 7 | 4.85 | 5.02 | 35.4% | 1.13 | 4.28 | TOR | 93 | 94 | 76 | |
| Chris Smith | OAK | -12.2 | 3.76 | 6. | 45.5% | 0.93 | 3.91 | 4.32 | TAM | 100 | 114 | 94 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 3.8 | 2.48 | 7.11 | 47.8% | 0.98 | 2.59 | 1.96 | CHW | 95 | 113 | 69 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | -5.8 | 3.48 | 5.13 | 36.8% | 1.39 | 4.31 | 5.75 | COL | 83 | 77 | 108 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -4.6 | 4.53 | 5.6 | 33.8% | 1.02 | 4.7 | 5 | TEX | 81 | 97 | 44 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 0.1 | 5.15 | 5.62 | 38.5% | 0.91 | 6.03 | ANA | 98 | 91 | 84 | |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -3.2 | 4.15 | 5.95 | 50.6% | 0.97 | 3.88 | 4.82 | MIL | 99 | 96 | 75 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | -2.8 | 4.01 | 5.81 | 42.6% | 1.13 | 4.41 | 4.96 | BOS | 89 | 107 | 40 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 1.2 | 4.25 | 5.38 | 42.1% | 0.91 | 4.14 | 4.08 | WAS | 106 | 112 | 164 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 4.2 | 3.93 | 6.35 | 43.4% | 1 | 4.04 | 4.41 | ATL | 89 | 89 | 94 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -1.3 | 4.83 | 5.67 | 41.9% | 0.97 | 4.84 | 6.27 | PIT | 92 | 88 | 102 |
| Luis Cessa | NYY | 1.1 | 4.47 | 5.43 | 43.2% | 1.04 | 5.07 | 4.49 | MIN | 100 | 99 | 87 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 2.8 | 4.79 | 5.05 | 37.9% | 1.06 | 4.61 | KAN | 84 | 82 | 64 | |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -3.5 | 4.27 | 5.51 | 45.7% | 0.91 | 4.25 | 2.89 | NYM | 96 | 104 | 142 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.2 | 4.89 | 5.72 | 39.6% | 0.98 | 4.74 | LOS | 100 | 108 | 141 | |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0 | 4.55 | 4.77 | 38.4% | 0.93 | 4.53 | 4.9 | SFO | 74 | 79 | 88 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | -1.4 | 4.86 | 4.17 | 43.2% | 0.91 | 5 | 3.94 | STL | 89 | 98 | 92 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -5.3 | 3.73 | 5.59 | 44.9% | 1.02 | 3.33 | 2.72 | CIN | 99 | 93 | 52 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 7.4 | 5.12 | 4. | 45.5% | 1.02 | 10.97 | 2.54 | ARI | 77 | 102 | 62 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 6.6 | 4.88 | 5.41 | 0.503 | 0.94 | 4.57 | 4.7 | HOU | 123 | 132 | 124 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | -2.5 | 4.52 | 5.2 | 0.457 | 1 | 4.71 | 5.17 | CHC | 94 | 110 | 160 |
| Travis Wood | KAN | 5.8 | 4.18 | 3.07 | 0.386 | 1.06 | 5.02 | DET | 86 | 120 | 148 | |
| Ty Blach | SFO | -0.9 | 5.07 | 6.07 | 0.483 | 0.93 | 4.72 | 5.28 | CLE | 101 | 101 | 44 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 3.5 | 3.66 | 5.81 | 0.542 | 1.02 | 6.3 | 5.54 | BAL | 91 | 93 | 75 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 4.1 | 3.71 | 5.34 | 0.369 | 0.94 | 4.19 | MIA | 89 | 95 | 83 |
Clayton Kershaw is fourth in the majors with a 27.1 K-BB% and we could call that a down year, but he’s struck out 36 of his last 84 batters. Although he’s now allowed a career high 18 HRs, he’s allowed just one over his last four starts and still has just an 84.9 mph aEV and 3.7 Hard-Soft% that’s on par with career rates. The White Sox have been a quality offense against LHP, but have been slipping and also, who cares?
Dinelson Lamet was spanked by Cleveland, lasting just four innings, allowing another two HRs (10 in 41 IP), striking out five, but with walk issues that have not plagued him much in the majors showing up for just the second time in eight starts. An 88.6 mph aEV and 15.1% Barrels/BBE with now the risk of his control blowing up is certainly risky enough in Colorado that I may consider omitting him on most boards. Colorado is still the worst offense in the majors despite their outburst last night though (14.9 K-BB%). The numbers may not look that awful, but consider the Coors boost they get in half their games.
Michael Wacha has struck out 18 of his last 48 batters with a 12.8 SwStr%. The odd thing is that batters are only chasing 25% of the time with a 75 Z-Contact% over this span. We might consider running with this in a negative run environment even though the Mets are one of the hottest offenses out of the break and strike out at a below average rate because he’s also offered solid contact management this year (85.4 mph aEV, 28.7% 95+ mph EV).
Mike Clevinger has a 12.9 BB% that often detracts from his 27.5 K% and has failed to allow him to surpass six innings in nine of 11 starts, but he’s lasted exactly that many innings in each of his last three. Strikeouts have not been consistent (exactly four in three of his last five), but there is upside here against an offense that does not strike out a lot, though is a great overall matchup in a great park. The Giants have just a 25 Hard% and 6.1 HR/FB at home with a 9.0 HR/FB and 28.4 Hard% vs RHP.
Rafael Montero has a career 13.1 BB% in 112.1 IP, but just a league average 8.8 BB% and 20.0 K-BB% (12.5 SwStr%) since his most recent call up a month ago (19.1 IP). While it’s an incredibly small sample size, he was once a prospect of some note and has carried a 26 Hard% over this span with a board low 82.8 mph aEV for the season. The Cardinals are a somewhat average offense, but a favorable matchup in this park.
Robbie Ray has walked at least four in five straight starts with a 38.2 Hard% over that span. He’s a well-known terrible contact manager (42.4% 95+ mph EV) in a terrible park. How much the park has to do with it is debatable and he does get an upgrade tonight even if Cincinnati might be more power friendly. It’s more neutral in overall run environment. The Reds do have some power, so his standard four walks could turn into a disaster, but an enormous strikeout rate does bail him out more often than not and he’s only failed to go at least six innings once in his last nine starts.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Ivan Nova (.267 – 79.1% – 13.4) is almost interesting today despite the low strikeout rate, when considering the circumstances. Milwaukee is a dangerous offense facing an occasionally HR prone pitcher (10 over his last seven starts). However, eight of those 10 have been on the road and while the Brewers have power (18.5 HR/FB on the road, 19.9 HR/FB vs RHP), they do strike out a quarter of the time and Pittsburgh is a park that punishes RH power (0.8 three year park factor). This is not the type of arm I’m usually comfortable paying $8K for because it’s difficult for him to make up for a long ball or two, but a potential increase in strikeouts on this board could allow him to pay off often enough here.
Brad Peacock (.304 – 79.4% – 1.4) has been one of the top contact managers in the league (2.9% Barrels/BBE, 25.9% 95+ mph EV) on top of all the strikeouts, except that he’s only been striking out batters at a very good rate, rather than an elite one over the last month. A rate much below 30% makes his 14.1 BB% more difficult to deal with. We’re now being asked to pay $9-$10K where the risk may be too much considering the reward in neutral or worse spots.
Dylan Bundy (.271 – 75.8% – 12.3) has a decent profile and gets a lot of popups (21 already), so perhaps I’m being a bit harsh, but the defense has been poor and even his ERA is above four at this point. On this board, players may look at his improved strikeout rate and reconsider, but he failed to allow a HR for the first time in 12 starts last time out. There are just so many fly balls in a tough park without much of an ability to stifle the hard contact (88.1 mph aEV, 8.4% Barrels/BBE, 34.9 Hard%). Those aren’t the worst contact authority numbers on the slate, but they don’t need to be with a 31.5 GB% in Baltimore. The Rangers have a 26.7 K% on the road and 23.8% vs RHP, but also a 17.1 HR/FB vs RHP.
Sam Gaviglio (.258 – 75.7% – 23.2)
Junior Guerra (.246 – 81.5% – 20.6) has walked at least three in nine straight starts, striking out more than that just twice over his last seven.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
J.A. Happ has not been bad, but strikeouts are down over the last month and he has allowed four HRs over his last two starts (three to Houston though). He enters a difficult environment against an offense with just a 15.9 K% vs LHP and 35.5 Hard% at home this year. That’s really the biggest issue here. Also, in his last start, he was charged with just two ERs despite allowing three HRs, if you’re wondering about the low ERA over the last 30 days. The rules regarding unearned runs can be a bit misleading. Sure, he should have been out of an inning, but he still allowed the HRs.
Matt Boyd was demoted at the end of May with a 5.1 K-BB% and 42.1 Hard% through 11 starts. In eight AAA starts, he had a dominant 20.1 K-BB%, but we’ve seen this before and he also allowed a HR in six of seven starts. The one where he didn’t lasted just 14 batters. Kansas City is a favorable spot, if not a high strikeout one, because they don’t have much power. If you believe he can sustain his minor league peripherals this time around, then he could be worth a shot at a low cost, but why would this be different?
Chris Smith has carried league average K-BB rates in AAA over the last couple of seasons. One wonders why the 36 year-old only made his first major league start two weeks ago. He wasn’t terrible in Seattle (6 IP – 3 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 4 K – 25 BF) and is in a decent spot for strikeouts (Rays 24.3 K% vs RHP). Maybe you want to slot him in next to Kershaw for $4.8K on DraftKings and see what happens, but there must be a reason he’d never started a major league game prior to this month.
John Lackey has 14 strikeouts, nine walks and eight HRs allowed over his last five starts. Twice, he has more HRs allowed than strikeouts in that span.
Adam Conley was optioned out with a 5.2 K-BB% through six starts this year. He returns to the top matchup on the board with a 5.8 K-BB% through 12 AAA starts.
Sal Romano showed poorly in a start in April against the Brewers and was given another shot in Colorado two weeks ago where he shined (5 IP – 2 ER – 1 BB – 6 K – 20 BF), but struck out just 15.1% of AAA batters in 49.1 innings this year and has only had a strikeout rate above 20% in 156 AA innings last year in his professional career. That said, he does throw in the upper 90’s with an above average slider, but the changeup appears to be lacking.
Brian Johnson has allowed a .376 wOBA to RHBs (79 BF) this year and will face a lineup full of them in a tough park tonight.
Vince Velasquez threw his most recent major league pitch in May and has missed a month and a half with an elbow issue. He has faced 37 minor league batters over three rehab starts. Seventeen of those were in his most recent outing in high A. His 89.7 mph aEV and 44.4% 95+ mph EV prior to injury are worst on today’s board.
Jesse Chavez has completed six innings just twice in his last 10 starts. Forty percent of his contact has left the bat at 95+ mph this year.
Blake Snell has allowed six unearned runs. His ERA might be over five. He’s no longer missing bats at even a league average rate this year while still walking a ton.
Sean Newcomb can miss bats, but has also had a double digit walk rate as nearly every stop of his professional career and that is one thing that will certainly get him in trouble against the Cubs (12.7 BB% vs LHP), who have been strong against LHP this year (18.4 HR/FB) despite all their faults.
Bartolo Colon allowed four of 17 batters to score in a AAA tune up for Minnesota last week, but did strike out five.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 20.9% | 10.0% | Home | 19.3% | 11.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.6% | 7.8% | Home | 15.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Bartolo Colon | Twins | L2 Years | 15.3% | 4.5% | Home | 20.0% | 4.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 22.5% | 13.4% | Road | 20.9% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 18.2% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 28.8% | 13.1% | Home | 33.3% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 13.0% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | L2 Years | 18.0% | 8.1% | Home | 18.5% | 1.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.4% | 11.2% | Home | 25.0% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 4.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 32.6% | 3.3% | Road | 29.9% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 41.4% | 3.5% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 30.9% | 8.4% | Road | 33.3% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 18.2% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.5% | 8.4% | Home | 20.2% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Edwin Jackson | Nationals | L2 Years | 16.1% | 10.9% | Road | 13.2% | 12.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.6% | 4.7% | Home | 16.7% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 4.1% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.9% | 6.9% | Road | 19.9% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 10.9% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 20.0% | 7.7% | Home | 20.9% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.5% | 6.8% | Road | 22.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.4% | 10.3% | Road | 19.3% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| Luis Cessa | Yankees | L2 Years | 16.3% | 5.4% | Road | 14.9% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.5% | 8.1% | Road | 18.2% | 7.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.6% | 8.5% | Road | 18.9% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 7.7% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 15.5% | 7.1% | Home | 16.5% | 5.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 24.5% | 12.7% | Road | 24.7% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Rafael Montero | Mets | L2 Years | 22.4% | 14.2% | Home | 20.8% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 28.2% | 10.2% | Road | 31.7% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 15.4% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 21.1% | 13.2% | Home | 11.1% | 22.2% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 5.0% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.9% | 8.2% | Road | 14.1% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 12.0% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 21.4% | 10.0% | Home | 15.8% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 14.3% |
| Travis Wood | Royals | L2 Years | 21.6% | 10.3% | Home | 16.4% | 8.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 11.8% | 5.8% | Home | 12.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 4.2% |
| Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 24.2% | 8.9% | Road | 18.2% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 26.7% | 8.4% | Road | 21.9% | 9.0% | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Road | 23.8% | 7.6% | LH | 21.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.3% | 12.7% |
| Padres | Road | 27.2% | 7.0% | RH | 26.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 25.0% | 6.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.4% | 9.4% | RH | 22.6% | 9.9% | L7Days | 26.4% | 6.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 25.3% | 9.4% | LH | 26.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 28.1% | 9.6% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.2% | 7.4% | RH | 21.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 16.7% | 6.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.1% | 9.1% | LH | 22.0% | 10.7% | L7Days | 22.2% | 11.4% |
| Rays | Road | 25.3% | 8.6% | RH | 24.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.3% | 5.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.3% | 7.8% | LH | 20.9% | 7.3% | L7Days | 27.7% | 4.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.0% | 7.5% | RH | 22.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.3% | 9.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.7% | 8.1% | RH | 23.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 17.6% | 6.6% |
| Angels | Home | 18.6% | 7.7% | RH | 20.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.8% | 9.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.0% | 9.0% | RH | 25.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 27.0% | 8.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.8% | 9.5% | LH | 15.9% | 10.7% | L7Days | 23.3% | 9.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.3% | 9.0% | RH | 19.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.7% | 9.9% |
| Braves | Home | 19.7% | 7.1% | RH | 19.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.1% | 4.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.3% | 9.3% | RH | 18.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 14.6% | 7.9% |
| Twins | Home | 21.5% | 10.1% | RH | 22.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 28.1% | 11.1% |
| Royals | Home | 19.1% | 6.6% | LH | 19.2% | 6.5% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.3% |
| Mets | Home | 19.4% | 9.0% | RH | 18.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.6% | 9.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.4% | 10.8% | RH | 23.0% | 10.8% | L7Days | 19.5% | 11.9% |
| Giants | Home | 19.5% | 6.5% | RH | 19.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.0% | 6.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.3% | 8.5% | RH | 21.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.0% | 6.7% |
| Reds | Home | 22.3% | 9.0% | LH | 21.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 28.3% | 9.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.3% | 8.1% | RH | 22.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.9% | 10.4% |
| Astros | Home | 16.7% | 8.0% | RH | 17.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 15.8% | 11.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.9% | 9.6% | LH | 20.7% | 12.7% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.1% | 9.4% | LH | 19.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 17.0% | 13.6% |
| Indians | Road | 18.7% | 9.4% | LH | 16.8% | 10.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 6.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.3% | 7.2% | RH | 22.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 21.0% | 9.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.7% | 7.9% | RH | 20.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 26.8% | 8.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.8% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 2017 | 34.4% | 10.3% | 16.1% | Home | 33.6% | 6.8% | 11.9% | L14 Days | |||
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 28.5% | 18.1% | 10.9% | 2017 | 28.5% | 18.1% | 10.9% | Home | 29.4% | 23.1% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | -33.3% |
| Bartolo Colon | Twins | L2 Years | 32.9% | 11.9% | 15.5% | 2017 | 32.6% | 14.3% | 10.6% | Home | 33.0% | 12.4% | 11.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 33.3% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 2017 | 36.5% | 12.1% | 17.3% | Road | 33.3% | 7.4% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 28.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 2017 | 28.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | Home | 26.2% | 5.9% | 1.2% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 0.0% | -2.8% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | L2 Years | 34.2% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 2017 | 35.7% | 15.6% | 11.4% | Home | 34.9% | 11.1% | 11.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 28.2% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 2017 | 35.0% | 20.0% | 15.0% | Home | 31.0% | 6.3% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 20.0% | 15.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.1% | 10.3% | 5.5% | 2017 | 28.3% | 16.1% | 3.7% | Road | 27.6% | 13.3% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 7.7% | 3.1% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 39.6% | 18.9% | 24.5% | 2017 | 39.6% | 18.9% | 24.5% | Road | 38.6% | 26.1% | 18.1% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 33.3% | 23.1% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.4% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 2017 | 34.9% | 12.3% | 15.3% | Home | 30.1% | 12.5% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| Edwin Jackson | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.9% | 14.0% | 18.6% | 2017 | 26.1% | 20.0% | 4.4% | Road | 40.3% | 17.0% | 25.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.1% | 15.0% | 14.4% | 2017 | 31.8% | 13.4% | 13.6% | Home | 31.2% | 12.3% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 26.7% | 15.4% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 32.5% | 12.3% | 14.8% | 2017 | 32.5% | 18.5% | 14.4% | Road | 29.5% | 12.3% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 30.8% | 9.4% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 34.0% | 16.8% | 16.8% | 2017 | 35.7% | 17.1% | 19.8% | Home | 27.8% | 16.2% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 62.5% | 25.0% | 56.2% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 33.7% | 15.7% | 18.2% | 2017 | 37.1% | 21.2% | 22.7% | Road | 36.6% | 18.3% | 22.7% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 0.0% | 31.5% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.8% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 2017 | 33.8% | 20.6% | 13.3% | Road | 32.9% | 13.6% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 33.3% | 27.3% |
| Luis Cessa | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.2% | 17.6% | 14.1% | 2017 | 27.6% | 11.5% | 3.9% | Road | 25.7% | 12.7% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 0.0% | 4.2% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 34.2% | 12.8% | 16.4% | 2017 | 41.8% | 10.9% | 25.0% | Road | 34.0% | 11.2% | 17.2% | L14 Days | |||
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.1% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2017 | 28.7% | 10.8% | 8.9% | Road | 28.0% | 13.2% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 0.0% | -7.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.2% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 2017 | 33.1% | 11.6% | 17.3% | Home | 27.8% | 7.3% | 10.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 31.9% | 13.0% | 15.6% | 2017 | 32.6% | 13.0% | 18.4% | Road | 31.5% | 13.3% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Rafael Montero | Mets | L2 Years | 28.8% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 2017 | 27.5% | 5.4% | 10.8% | Home | 25.0% | 2.9% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 37.1% | 14.4% | 20.1% | 2017 | 41.6% | 14.0% | 22.3% | Road | 35.6% | 13.2% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 33.3% | 22.2% | 8.3% | 2017 | 33.3% | 22.2% | 8.3% | Home | 36.4% | 28.6% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.8% | 23.2% | 17.0% | 2017 | 31.8% | 23.2% | 17.0% | Road | 23.8% | 29.6% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 28.6% | 18.8% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 27.4% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 2017 | 27.4% | 7.4% | 8.4% | Home | 22.9% | 10.5% | 1.5% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 16.7% | 15.4% |
| Travis Wood | Royals | L2 Years | 31.9% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 2017 | 27.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | Home | 32.9% | 11.9% | 10.7% | L14 Days | |||
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 30.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 2017 | 30.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | Home | 26.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 47.6% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 25.6% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 2017 | 26.0% | 10.0% | 12.3% | Road | 14.3% | 6.7% | -3.6% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.2% | 15.7% | 16.2% | 2017 | 38.2% | 21.6% | 25.0% | Road | 34.0% | 15.4% | 16.1% | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Road | 30.0% | 10.3% | 8.7% | LH | 29.5% | 15.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 38.6% | 8.1% | 17.8% |
| Padres | Road | 29.9% | 14.5% | 7.7% | RH | 28.5% | 14.0% | 6.1% | L7Days | 31.4% | 18.9% | 13.7% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.4% | 12.0% | 13.0% | RH | 31.7% | 17.0% | 12.9% | L7Days | 28.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 31.5% | 15.6% | 16.5% | LH | 31.7% | 9.5% | 14.5% | L7Days | 31.0% | 17.5% | 10.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 32.3% | 11.9% | 14.9% | RH | 30.8% | 12.9% | 13.1% | L7Days | 32.2% | 21.3% | 17.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.5% | 15.1% | 13.7% | LH | 30.6% | 12.8% | 13.7% | L7Days | 33.7% | 17.1% | 14.5% |
| Rays | Road | 33.9% | 17.0% | 14.7% | RH | 36.4% | 18.2% | 18.9% | L7Days | 28.2% | 14.6% | 7.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.7% | 13.1% | 7.2% | LH | 29.7% | 14.6% | 10.3% | L7Days | 31.1% | 15.4% | 8.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 30.9% | 15.9% | 11.7% | RH | 29.4% | 12.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 32.1% | 13.5% | 12.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.8% | 15.9% | 9.3% | RH | 34.0% | 17.1% | 14.4% | L7Days | 27.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% |
| Angels | Home | 28.4% | 13.0% | 9.9% | RH | 30.6% | 13.0% | 11.2% | L7Days | 27.3% | 14.3% | 7.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.5% | 18.5% | 11.7% | RH | 34.1% | 19.9% | 14.9% | L7Days | 40.0% | 13.9% | 21.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 35.5% | 8.5% | 17.5% | LH | 32.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | L7Days | 21.5% | 4.3% | -2.2% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.4% | 16.1% | 13.0% | RH | 31.8% | 15.0% | 14.8% | L7Days | 38.3% | 27.7% | 19.2% |
| Braves | Home | 28.6% | 11.8% | 8.8% | RH | 30.5% | 11.5% | 11.7% | L7Days | 23.3% | 18.5% | 1.0% |
| Pirates | Home | 30.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | RH | 30.5% | 10.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 33.6% | 7.1% | 12.0% |
| Twins | Home | 33.9% | 11.6% | 17.3% | RH | 33.0% | 13.2% | 16.2% | L7Days | 30.4% | 16.0% | 7.6% |
| Royals | Home | 31.4% | 9.3% | 12.0% | LH | 30.3% | 11.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 29.9% | 5.0% | 9.3% |
| Mets | Home | 33.6% | 11.3% | 14.6% | RH | 35.1% | 13.4% | 17.8% | L7Days | 33.3% | 20.9% | 9.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 34.0% | 14.2% | 18.0% | RH | 35.5% | 15.4% | 20.1% | L7Days | 46.9% | 14.6% | 32.1% |
| Giants | Home | 25.2% | 6.1% | 3.7% | RH | 28.4% | 9.0% | 6.5% | L7Days | 29.0% | 7.1% | 9.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.7% | 13.9% | 15.1% | RH | 32.0% | 14.1% | 13.1% | L7Days | 32.7% | 12.9% | 14.0% |
| Reds | Home | 27.9% | 15.3% | 6.2% | LH | 28.0% | 15.7% | 7.3% | L7Days | 16.3% | 5.7% | -8.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.9% | 13.1% | 10.0% | RH | 35.8% | 14.8% | 18.5% | L7Days | 24.4% | 5.0% | -3.8% |
| Astros | Home | 30.5% | 15.5% | 12.7% | RH | 33.2% | 16.0% | 15.9% | L7Days | 25.6% | 11.9% | 11.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.7% | 14.6% | 10.0% | LH | 29.2% | 18.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 40.0% | 25.6% | 28.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.8% | 12.2% | 18.2% | LH | 41.6% | 18.0% | 25.9% | L7Days | 36.1% | 17.9% | 25.4% |
| Indians | Road | 35.5% | 12.0% | 18.7% | LH | 32.5% | 12.1% | 14.2% | L7Days | 27.0% | 9.4% | 10.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 29.1% | 15.6% | 8.2% | RH | 30.6% | 15.3% | 9.8% | L7Days | 25.5% | 12.1% | 7.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.4% | 15.2% | 9.6% | RH | 31.4% | 14.6% | 11.3% | L7Days | 30.6% | 11.1% | 9.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 17.2% | 10.6% | 1.62 | |||
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 17.6% | 7.0% | 2.51 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 1.75 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 14.1% | 4.9% | 2.88 | 8.7% | 5.0% | 1.74 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 19.2% | 8.8% | 2.18 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 2.75 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 32.1% | 13.0% | 2.47 | 26.3% | 12.1% | 2.17 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 18.5% | 8.2% | 2.26 | |||
| Chris Smith | OAK | 16.0% | 11.3% | 1.42 | 16.0% | 11.3% | 1.42 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 31.4% | 13.7% | 2.29 | 40.9% | 16.4% | 2.49 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 30.9% | 13.5% | 2.29 | 32.3% | 15.6% | 2.07 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.87 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 2.53 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 6.9% | 8.3% | 0.83 | |||
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 13.9% | 7.5% | 1.85 | 14.4% | 8.8% | 1.64 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 22.9% | 9.7% | 2.36 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 2.10 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 18.2% | 7.9% | 2.30 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 2.82 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.03 | 13.4% | 7.0% | 1.91 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 17.3% | 10.2% | 1.70 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 2.08 |
| Luis Cessa | NYY | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.96 | 18.0% | 9.0% | 2.00 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 14.4% | 8.2% | 1.76 | |||
| Michael Wacha | STL | 23.5% | 9.9% | 2.37 | 28.0% | 10.5% | 2.67 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 12.9% | 6.8% | 1.90 | |||
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 27.5% | 13.4% | 2.05 | 26.2% | 13.0% | 2.02 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 22.9% | 9.9% | 2.31 | 28.2% | 12.2% | 2.31 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 32.1% | 13.5% | 2.38 | 31.2% | 12.5% | 2.50 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 21.1% | 7.2% | 2.93 | 30.0% | 13.1% | 2.29 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 15.9% | 6.4% | 2.48 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 2.26 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 21.4% | 11.6% | 1.84 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 1.94 |
| Travis Wood | KAN | 15.7% | 6.6% | 2.38 | 20.6% | 6.6% | 3.12 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 11.1% | 6.9% | 1.61 | 12.9% | 8.9% | 1.45 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 16.8% | 6.8% | 2.47 | 15.3% | 7.2% | 2.13 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 24.1% | 10.5% | 2.30 |
There are several outliers today, but with a lot of small sample sizes for pitchers there is little to no interest in.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 7.53 | 5.48 | -2.05 | 5.85 | -1.68 | 5.24 | -2.29 | 6.94 | -0.59 | |||||||
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 4.63 | 4.6 | -0.03 | 4.37 | -0.26 | 4.87 | 0.24 | 5.99 | 1.36 | 9 | 4.98 | -4.02 | 4.59 | -4.41 | 5.94 | -3.06 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 8.14 | 5.04 | -3.1 | 4.99 | -3.15 | 5.08 | -3.06 | 7.43 | -0.71 | 13.5 | 6.11 | -7.39 | 6.18 | -7.32 | 4.39 | -9.11 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 4.85 | 5.56 | 0.71 | 5.36 | 0.51 | 5.12 | 0.27 | 4.98 | 0.13 | 5.4 | 5.88 | 0.48 | 5.78 | 0.38 | 4.94 | -0.46 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 2.63 | 3.95 | 1.32 | 3.88 | 1.25 | 2.53 | -0.1 | 4.12 | 1.49 | 1.99 | 4.89 | 2.9 | 4.88 | 2.89 | 2.83 | 0.84 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 4.29 | 4.6 | 0.31 | 4.96 | 0.67 | 5.33 | 1.04 | 4.60 | 0.31 | |||||||
| Chris Smith | OAK | 4.5 | 4.32 | -0.18 | 3.8 | -0.7 | 4.48 | -0.02 | 4.53 | 0.03 | 4.5 | 4.32 | -0.18 | 3.8 | -0.7 | 4.48 | -0.02 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.18 | 2.88 | 0.7 | 2.75 | 0.57 | 3.01 | 0.83 | 2.52 | 0.34 | 2.04 | 2.09 | 0.05 | 2.11 | 0.07 | 2.44 | 0.4 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 5.93 | 3.48 | -2.45 | 4.01 | -1.92 | 4.87 | -1.06 | 4.22 | -1.71 | 3.91 | 3.07 | -0.84 | 3.26 | -0.65 | 3.58 | -0.33 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 4.33 | 4.87 | 0.54 | 5.11 | 0.78 | 4.86 | 0.53 | 5.25 | 0.92 | 8.85 | 4.57 | -4.28 | 4.98 | -3.87 | 6.54 | -2.31 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 7.2 | 7.06 | -0.14 | 8.31 | 1.11 | 9.94 | 2.74 | 7.65 | 0.45 | |||||||
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 3.21 | 4.52 | 1.31 | 4.16 | 0.95 | 4.12 | 0.91 | 4.63 | 1.42 | 4.26 | 4.9 | 0.64 | 4.58 | 0.32 | 5.76 | 1.5 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 3.54 | 3.86 | 0.32 | 3.77 | 0.23 | 4.42 | 0.88 | 4.18 | 0.64 | 2.73 | 4.27 | 1.54 | 4.09 | 1.36 | 3.92 | 1.19 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 4.99 | 4.78 | -0.21 | 4.74 | -0.25 | 5.24 | 0.25 | 5.20 | 0.21 | 5.59 | 5.12 | -0.47 | 4.97 | -0.62 | 4.28 | -1.31 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 5.2 | 4.42 | -0.78 | 4.54 | -0.66 | 5.66 | 0.46 | 6.38 | 1.18 | 5.01 | 5.26 | 0.25 | 5.17 | 0.16 | 5.97 | 0.96 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 4.78 | 5.76 | 0.98 | 5.99 | 1.21 | 7.14 | 2.36 | 8.49 | 3.71 | 8.31 | 5.69 | -2.62 | 6 | -2.31 | 9.09 | 0.78 |
| Luis Cessa | NYY | 4.18 | 4.61 | 0.43 | 4.81 | 0.63 | 4.49 | 0.31 | 5.37 | 1.19 | 3.98 | 4.52 | 0.54 | 4.86 | 0.88 | 4.03 | 0.05 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 5.69 | 5.34 | -0.35 | 5.17 | -0.52 | 4.75 | -0.94 | 6.57 | 0.88 | |||||||
| Michael Wacha | STL | 4.1 | 4.1 | 0 | 3.83 | -0.27 | 3.5 | -0.6 | 4.56 | 0.46 | 2.08 | 3.14 | 1.06 | 2.81 | 0.73 | 1.57 | -0.51 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 5.15 | 5.48 | 0.33 | 5.57 | 0.42 | 5.18 | 0.03 | 6.63 | 1.48 | |||||||
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 3 | 4.36 | 1.36 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 4.11 | 1.11 | 3.31 | 0.31 | 1.67 | 4.54 | 2.87 | 4.43 | 2.76 | 3.81 | 2.14 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 5.77 | 4.59 | -1.18 | 4.55 | -1.22 | 3.53 | -2.24 | 5.24 | -0.53 | 3.86 | 3.68 | -0.18 | 3.18 | -0.68 | 1.98 | -1.88 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 2.97 | 3.73 | 0.76 | 3.72 | 0.75 | 3.76 | 0.79 | 3.20 | 0.23 | 4.18 | 4.36 | 0.18 | 4.66 | 0.48 | 5.85 | 1.67 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 4.5 | 5.12 | 0.62 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 6.64 | 2.14 | 7.28 | 2.78 | 3.6 | 2.54 | -1.06 | 2.06 | -1.54 | 1.34 | -2.26 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 4.31 | 4.88 | 0.57 | 4.67 | 0.36 | 5.89 | 1.58 | 5.73 | 1.42 | 5.73 | 5.76 | 0.03 | 5.49 | -0.24 | 5.82 | 0.09 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 4.26 | 4.51 | 0.25 | 4.19 | -0.07 | 3.49 | -0.77 | 5.40 | 1.14 | 5.59 | 4.33 | -1.26 | 4.13 | -1.46 | 3.14 | -2.45 |
| Travis Wood | KAN | 6.06 | 5.39 | -0.67 | 5.86 | -0.2 | 4.7 | -1.36 | 7.69 | 1.63 | 2.25 | 3.45 | 1.2 | 3.93 | 1.68 | 2.14 | -0.11 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 4.6 | 5.18 | 0.58 | 4.87 | 0.27 | 4.06 | -0.54 | 6.37 | 1.77 | 5.73 | 5.34 | -0.39 | 5.11 | -0.62 | 4.69 | -1.04 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 5.33 | 5.54 | 0.21 | 5.73 | 0.4 | 5.16 | -0.17 | 4.88 | -0.45 | 5.95 | 5.72 | -0.23 | 6.07 | 0.12 | 5.79 | -0.16 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 5.58 | 4.27 | -1.31 | 4.22 | -1.36 | 5.26 | -0.32 | 4.40 | -1.18 |
Clayton Kershaw has a career low .248 BABIP, but not by much and with a strong profile. His career rate is only 21 points higher and the defense is solid. His 89.2 LOB% is more than 10 points above his career rate, which is actually the greatest of all time with many of the career leaders currently being active, but with many fewer innings.
Dinelson Lamet has an 18.9 HR/FB, but has allowed a ton of hard contact. The 56.4 LOB% should significantly improve, especially with that strikeout rate.
Mike Clevinger has a .231 BABIP and 83.3 LOB%.
Rafael Montero has a .407 BABIP and 67.9 LOB% with a 5.4 HR/FB. Over the 19.1 innings since returning, he hasn’t allowed a HR with a 70.8 LOB% and .340 BABIP. He’s actually been a strong contact manager with control being his biggest issue. If he can get ahead of batters more often, that BABIP should come down and they’ll be forced to swing at his pitches more often.
Robbie Ray has stranded 85.4% of runners and although the enormous strikeout rate gives him more leeway, we can see from the link above that no starting pitcher (500 IP min.) has ever held an 80% strand rate for their career. More of those walks will eventually come around to score.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 0.290 | 0.281 | -0.009 | 37.8% | 0.189 | 15.4% | 83.8% | 85.7 | 7.50% | 33.30% | 93 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.299 | 0.264 | -0.035 | 48.9% | 0.214 | 6.0% | 88.9% | 87 | 6.30% | 34.20% | 284 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 0.295 | 0.360 | 0.065 | 45.6% | 0.206 | 11.7% | 93.2% | 87.4 | 7.20% | 39.40% | 236 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.286 | 0.295 | 0.009 | 40.4% | 0.212 | 15.5% | 84.6% | 86.4 | 4.50% | 32.70% | 156 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 0.294 | 0.304 | 0.01 | 39.6% | 0.216 | 11.1% | 80.5% | 86.5 | 2.90% | 25.90% | 139 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 0.306 | 0.292 | -0.014 | 35.7% | 0.186 | 6.3% | 92.2% | 87.6 | 14.30% | 34.30% | 70 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 0.292 | 0.263 | -0.029 | 45.0% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 84.6% | ||||
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.281 | 0.248 | -0.033 | 45.3% | 0.197 | 11.6% | 82.5% | 84.9 | 6.80% | 28.30% | 325 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 0.303 | 0.271 | -0.032 | 36.8% | 0.132 | 3.8% | 82.2% | 88.6 | 15.10% | 39.60% | 106 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.314 | 0.271 | -0.043 | 31.5% | 0.224 | 14.4% | 85.8% | 88.1 | 8.40% | 36.80% | 321 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 0.295 | 0.429 | 0.134 | 27.3% | 0.273 | 0.0% | 89.2% | ||||
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.304 | 0.267 | -0.037 | 47.9% | 0.228 | 8.0% | 91.8% | 87.9 | 6.30% | 35.80% | 397 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.305 | 0.284 | -0.021 | 44.9% | 0.203 | 6.2% | 86.6% | 87.8 | 6.90% | 35.60% | 188 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 0.286 | 0.286 | 0 | 39.8% | 0.229 | 6.0% | 87.4% | 88.7 | 8.90% | 40.10% | 314 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.285 | 0.274 | -0.011 | 43.1% | 0.189 | 8.0% | 86.8% | 87.2 | 7.90% | 36.70% | 305 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.299 | 0.246 | -0.053 | 34.2% | 0.235 | 9.5% | 86.2% | 87.6 | 8.60% | 35.80% | 151 |
| Luis Cessa | NYY | 0.290 | 0.301 | 0.011 | 43.4% | 0.224 | 7.7% | 90.6% | 88 | 7.90% | 36.80% | 76 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.304 | 0.354 | 0.05 | 43.8% | 0.232 | 12.5% | 87.1% | 87.9 | 7.10% | 32.10% | 196 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.296 | 0.347 | 0.051 | 46.7% | 0.227 | 4.1% | 83.1% | 85.4 | 5.30% | 28.70% | 247 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.286 | 0.298 | 0.012 | 37.2% | 0.219 | 8.9% | 91.1% | 88.1 | 6.80% | 37.10% | 278 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.304 | 0.231 | -0.073 | 38.6% | 0.229 | 9.3% | 79.3% | 88.1 | 7.80% | 31.90% | 141 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 0.319 | 0.407 | 0.088 | 46.9% | 0.204 | 8.1% | 84.9% | 82.8 | 5.00% | 25.80% | 120 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.292 | 0.275 | -0.017 | 39.2% | 0.186 | 11.0% | 80.0% | 88.3 | 7.00% | 42.40% | 243 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 0.293 | 0.318 | 0.025 | 45.5% | 0.136 | 11.1% | 93.3% | ||||
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 0.277 | 0.258 | -0.019 | 50.3% | 0.173 | 8.9% | 92.2% | 86.9 | 8.00% | 34.70% | 176 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 0.292 | 0.323 | 0.031 | 45.7% | 0.255 | 11.1% | 86.3% | 87.6 | 2.10% | 35.80% | 95 |
| Travis Wood | KAN | 0.297 | 0.349 | 0.052 | 39.4% | 0.211 | 9.3% | 87.3% | 88.2 | 2.80% | 33.90% | 109 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.317 | 0.298 | -0.019 | 47.0% | 0.211 | 8.0% | 88.7% | 85 | 4.60% | 29.70% | 323 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 0.287 | 0.229 | -0.058 | 38.9% | 0.194 | 6.7% | 91.0% | 84.3 | 5.50% | 21.90% | 73 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 0.298 | 0.308 | 0.01 | 41.3% | 0.231 | 9.8% | 84.8% | 89.7 | 8.30% | 44.40% | 144 |
Michael Wacha has a .347 BABIP. Despite the low Z-Contact%, he allows a lot of line drives with few popups with a career .302 BABIP. He should be in line for some regression, but perhaps not that much.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Clayton Kershaw (1) – What? You can look at this board and need some sort of justification?
Value Tier Two
Robbie Ray (2) is flawed just as every pitcher not named Kershaw is today, but he’s just more likely to compensate for them than the pitchers below.
Value Tier Three
Dinelson Lamet is a bit terrifying at Coors. In fact, any player utilizing him should probably have at least one hedge against him too, but a 30% strikeout rate is impossible to ignore on this slate.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Mike Clevinger has his flaws and you’ll be tearing your hair out if he walks four in five innings, but does have some upside and is in one of the top run prevention spots on the board in San Francisco.
Michael Wacha combines an average to above average strikeout rate with solid contact management. The spot is about neutral in a negative run environment, while the cost is still a bit higher than you’d like (especially on DraftKings), but he has a decent ceiling with a high enough floor to be considered today.
Rafael Montero is a highly speculative arm with a decent amount of risk, but perhaps because I’ve witnessed some sort of transformation in watching some of these outings, I’m a bit more aggressive on him today. There’s also the fact that we’re latching onto any upside we can find behind Kershaw and Ray. If he can throw strikes at anything close to a league average rate, he can miss more than enough bats to be useful for $6K on either site.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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