Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, June 12th
The Bumgarner take was a whiff last night and when the similarly priced, higher owned guy goes off, it’s going to be a rough night. Other upper tier arms from Monday may have done well, but it always hurts when you miss your top pick. He was tossed from the game after disagreeing with what seemed to be a tight strikezone even if a few missed pitches wasn’t going to save the night. (Bat and Premium subscribers have access to Umpire Ratings, but I’m not sure if the assignment was available for that game before lock last night.)
Onto bigger things, which Tuesday’s slate certainly is, including all 15 games.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | -7.4 | 3.60 | 5.9 | 52.0% | 0.97 | 2.86 | 3.61 | Rockies | 80 | 75 | 96 |
| Adam Plutko | Indians | 7.1 | 5.24 | 6.0 | 29.4% | 0.98 | 5.66 | 6.04 | White Sox | 93 | 96 | 53 |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | -1.3 | 4.23 | 5.4 | 48.3% | 0.92 | 4.74 | 3.04 | Blue Jays | 94 | 101 | 118 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | -1.1 | 4.64 | 5.5 | 43.7% | 0.90 | 4.86 | 5.22 | Dodgers | 96 | 107 | 149 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 3.4 | 4.56 | 5.6 | 37.7% | 1.07 | 4.90 | 5.30 | Twins | 93 | 90 | 106 |
| Caleb Ferguson | Dodgers | -2.3 | 6.61 | 1.2 | 66.7% | 0.90 | 6.61 | Rangers | 82 | 99 | 121 | |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 4.8 | 4.37 | 5.6 | 49.3% | 1.03 | 3.99 | 4.26 | Nationals | 93 | 87 | 85 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 6.3 | 4.60 | 5.3 | 36.4% | 1.02 | 4.89 | 5.61 | Cubs | 108 | 105 | 67 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | -6.3 | 4.81 | 5.2 | 40.8% | 0.88 | 4.15 | 3.76 | Marlins | 83 | 79 | 103 |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 3.5 | 4.64 | 5.4 | 39.7% | 1.00 | 3.59 | 2.84 | Pirates | 88 | 97 | 85 |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | 3 | 4.45 | 5.7 | 39.7% | 0.96 | 4.30 | 5.13 | Astros | 119 | 105 | 137 |
| David Hess | Orioles | -8.7 | 5.18 | 5.8 | 38.3% | 0.99 | 5.49 | 5.41 | Red Sox | 98 | 118 | 80 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 5.6 | 3.97 | 5.5 | 35.3% | 0.99 | 4.26 | 3.29 | Orioles | 92 | 81 | 47 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | -3.7 | 0.88 | Giants | 92 | 105 | 114 | |||||
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 3.6 | 4.59 | 5.4 | 33.7% | 1.04 | 5.11 | 5.22 | Reds | 99 | 92 | 125 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 5.6 | 4.11 | 5.2 | 40.0% | 0.92 | 5.19 | 3.28 | Mariners | 100 | 102 | 113 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | -4.9 | 4.37 | 5.5 | 53.0% | 0.92 | 4.76 | 4.04 | Rays | 106 | 99 | 90 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | -0.1 | 4.56 | 5.3 | 30.9% | 1.07 | 5.36 | 4.07 | Tigers | 99 | 85 | 49 |
| James Shields | White Sox | -5 | 5.16 | 5.7 | 37.1% | 0.98 | 5.02 | 4.34 | Indians | 88 | 103 | 88 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.9 | 3.73 | 5.6 | 45.3% | 0.97 | 3.51 | 4.80 | Phillies | 101 | 90 | 75 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Astros | 4.8 | 3.52 | 5.6 | 58.4% | 0.96 | 3.42 | 4.40 | Athletics | 82 | 105 | 104 |
| Matt Strahm | Padres | -6.8 | 4.46 | 3.2 | 38.2% | 0.92 | 6.29 | 4.16 | Cardinals | 94 | 103 | 114 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 4.7 | 4.24 | 5.5 | 40.7% | 0.99 | 3.80 | 2.45 | Mets | 100 | 100 | 37 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | -2.1 | 4.07 | 5.9 | 53.3% | 0.92 | 4.00 | 3.70 | Angels | 114 | 110 | 95 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.5 | 3.62 | 6.6 | 50.8% | 0.92 | 3.07 | 4.23 | Padres | 71 | 83 | 71 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | -3.4 | 4.84 | 5.2 | 47.8% | 1.04 | 4.58 | 3.75 | Royals | 91 | 86 | 26 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | -5.6 | 4.34 | 6.2 | 46.9% | 1.03 | 4.37 | 5.47 | Yankees | 120 | 115 | 78 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | -2.5 | 4.67 | 5.5 | 45.5% | 1.00 | 4.63 | 5.01 | Diamondbacks | 88 | 78 | 136 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 12.6 | 5.09 | 5.3 | 57.2% | 1.02 | 4.73 | 6.55 | Brewers | 91 | 98 | 111 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | -3.1 | 4.37 | 5.3 | 47.2% | 0.99 | 3.89 | 4.43 | Braves | 97 | 98 | 111 |
Aaron Nola allowed three runs in six innings with a season high four walks at Wrigley last time out. It was just the third time this season he’s allowed more than two runs (and never more than four). He’s completed six innings in 11 straight starts and he’s increased his strikeout rate over the last month (26.2%) to push his season rate near the quarter mark (24.8%) to go along with a 53.7 GB% and board leading .265 xwOBA and 4.1% Barrels/BBE. He’s been pretty damn good at home too. His 2.86 xFIP since last season is the top split on the board today by a decent margin. He’s also in one of the top spots on the board. The Rockies have a split low 75 wRC+ vs RHP with a 14.7 K-BB%.
Austin Pruitt has not started a game this season, but has gone beyond five innings in three of his last four outings. He totaled 93 pitches in seven innings last time out against the Mariners (his second consecutive effort against them), but it wasn’t all good news with five earned and two home runs allowed. Besides Seattle, he’s faced Baltimore and Boston in these four efforts, walking just three batters. He has a double digit SwStr% in each of his last two outings. The matchup against the Jays is winnable in negative run environment and they may pull up his strikeout rate (24% vs RHP) to a more useful number.
C.C. Sabathia tied his seven high with seven innings of three hit ball (two runs), striking out six in Toronto last time out. It was only the fourth time (and first in a month) that he’s completed six innings this season, but he also threw just 89 pitches, his fewest in four starts, though he’s not reached 100 this year. He’s allowed a HR in five straight starts (seven over that span), but still has just a 5.8 Hard-Soft% over that span, while he leads the board with an 84.4 mph aEV and 27.7% 95+ mph EV this year. His .293 xwOBA is a top four mark today. He’s in a surprisingly reasonable spot against a Washington offense that has not performed against LHP (87 wRC+), despite average looking peripherals.
Chris Stratton has allowed at least three runs in five innings or less in five of his last six starts. You’re not going to find anything exciting or even league average in his numbers. In fact, if you look at his Statcast table, it seems that a great park may be most responsible for even keeping him in a major league rotation. His signature pitch, the curveball, has seen the xwOBA rise nearly .200 points this year (.196 to .391). None of that is why there might be interest in him tonight. He might actually receive a park upgrade in a great matchup in Miami tonight (79 wRC+, 17.0 K-BB% vs RHP).
Eduardo Rodriguez has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (27.6%), though he’s only exceeded eight once this year and hasn’t exceeded seven in any of his last five starts. That’s generally because he doesn’t often go deep into games. He hasn’t completed seven innings a single time and has only gotten an out in the seventh twice. That said, he has an ERA and estimators in the mid-threes, while his .290 xwOBA and 4.5% Barrels/BBE are both second best on tonight’s board. He also has a top five park adjusted matchup. While the peripherals for the Orioles aren’t terrible against LHP, it’s still resulted in just an 81 wRC+, while his reverse split should be a bonus here. The Orioles additionally have a 47 wRC+, 6.8 HR/FB and -2.2 Hard-Soft% over the last week. In two starts against them this season, he’s struck out 15 of 51 batters, allowing a single run in 11.2 innings.
Jaime Barria has started seven games for the Angels. Over his last four (23.1 IP), he’s allowed just five runs with 24 strikeouts. Four of those runs came at Yankee Stadium, while he’s also faced Houston and pitched at Coors over that span. While the Mariners are a good offense, the park adjustment will make this one of the more favorable spots he’s been in. It’s just three starts, but his 14.2 SwStr% over the last month is highest on the board.
Jaime Garcia has alternated great starts with blowups over his last six. He’s allowed exactly one ER in every other start and four or more in each of the other three in that span. The strikeout rate is near league average and the .344 xwOBA is not great, but a middle of the board mark today. The appeal is in a floundering Rays’ offense that has a 16.2 K-BB% vs LHP and 3.6 BB% over the last week.
Jon Gray allowed three runs over five innings in Cincinnati with five strikeouts last time out and it was his best start in a month. It was the first time he’d surrendered fewer than four runs in five starts (three at home, one in San Francisco). He’s in another power friendly park tonight, but it’s also a high upside spot (Phillies split high 26.9 K% vs RHP, split low 7.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) in a more neutral, or even slightly negative run environment. His 25.7 K% is third best on the board. His 13.4 SwStr% over the last month is second best. His actual ERA exceeds his estimators by five runs over the last month. His 5.2% Barrels/BBE this season is third best on today’s slate.
Lance McCullers has struck out just 10 of his last 72 batters. He has faced the top of the AL (CLE, BOS, SEA) over those three starts though. His 55.3 GB% is tops on the board even if they’re not exactly soft ground balls (89.7 mph aEV). He’s gone seven innings in four of his 13 starts and at least six in eight. The A’s hit the ball hard (26.9 Hard-Soft% at home, 26.1% vs RHP, 35.3% last seven days) and aren’t even really striking out a lot against RHP (22.9%).
Mike Leake has struck out three or fewer in four of his last five starts and it probably won’t uptick much against the Angels (20.1 K% vs RHP), but he’s thrown 23 innings over his last three starts and at least 6.2 innings in five of his last six. His xwOBA is near league average over the last month (.324). There’s not a lot of upside here, but he’s a decent bet to go deep into this game and the LA offense is basically just Trout and Upton at this point. There’s really nobody to fear beyond those two.
Miles Mikolas has struck out more than five just three times this season, but has pitched into the seventh in eight of 12 starts with quality contact management (50.8 GB%, 28.4% 95+ mph EV). He misses enough bats (18.5 K%) to be useful with the heavy workload. His .292 xwOBA this season is third best on the board, his .273 mark over the last month is second best. He may also have the top park adjusted matchup and one of the highest upside ones on the board (Padres 71 wRC+, 21.2 K-BB% on the road, 83 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP, 71 wRC+, 26.7 K% over the last week).
Zack Wheeler has a 22.4 K% that’s just a bit above league average this year, but closer to the top of a full slate than you’d think today. He’s also been one of the best contact managers on the board (85.6 mph aEV is third best). He’s gone at least six innings in four straight and six of seven as well. While the matchup is not ideal in Atlanta, they’re really just an average offense in an average park with a strikeout rate (20.7%) that’s not too far below average against RHP.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Mike Foltynewicz (.278 – _80.5% – 7.9) has the highest strikeout rate on the board, but I’m still convinced it isn’t real, which also throw his estimators, already well above his ERA, off. I don’t think he’s bad. His .251 xwOBA over the last 30 days (which I don’t entirely believe in either because it includes strikeout rate) is best on the board. I don’t think he’s bad and he’s facing the coldest offense on the board (37 wRC+ and 30.5 K% last seven days), but he has a large platoon split and it’s a predominantly left-handed lineup. He doesn’t miss by much and is probably my most borderline pitcher tonight, but he’s still over-priced. I actually have him tied overall with McCullers and Rodriguez, who are a bit cheaper tonight.
Clay Buchholz (.215 – 94.9 – 8.8) is missing bats at a league average rate and hasn’t allowed five total runs over four starts. Even the estimators aren’t bad and the park could be a negative run environment now. That should help in run prevention against a Pittsburgh team with just a 10.0 Hard-Soft% vs RHP and 5.2 HR/FB over the last seven days, but the strikeouts may not be there (19.3 K% vs RHP). Decrease his cost by about $1K and you might have to think about it, but $8K+ still seems too much. His 11.8% Barrels/BBE is the highest number on the board.
Daniel Mengden (.242 – 68.2% – 11) has been a contact prone, fly ball pitcher in a really tough matchup, one of the two truly bad ones tonight, even in Oakland.
Tanner Roark (.245 – 75.3% – 11.8) just has a terrible matchup in Yankee Stadium. He’s failed to complete six inning in just one start this year though.
Blaine Hardy (.284 – 75.4% – 7.1) had his first poor start by results last time out, but has four walks against just five strikeouts over his last two and pitches in what may be the most difficult run environment in play tonight. The lack of power the Twins have shown against LHP (7.0 HR/FB), continues to stun though.
Chase Anderson (.230 – 76.7% – 15.3) remains a strong contact manager (85.6 mph aEV), but with just a 6.3 K-BB% and one of the worst Z-O-Contact rates on the board. Batters are sitting on strikes and not chasing those pitches out of the zone. He doesn’t even appear to be throwing his four-seamer above the zone as often this season and perhaps the mile per hour velocity loss is part of that. The matchup against the Cubs is not favorable. He’s allowed just three runs in 13 innings against them, but with just four strikeouts.
David Hess (.239 – 94% – 13.3) has a 13.6 K% and the Red Sox (split high 118 wRC+ vs RHP along with a 19.1 K% against them).
Adam Plutko (.180 – 91.7% – 15.2%) is an extreme fly ball pitcher, who has already allowed five HRs in three starts. He’s had very inconsistent minor league walk and strikeout numbers. In three different seasons of at least 50 innings at AAA, he’s had an 8.7%, 8.6% and 17.5 K-BB%. He would be in a high upside spot in Chicago (AL) tonight, but they took him deep twice in just five innings in his last start.
Tyler Chatwood (.290 – 78.8% – 7.0) now has a 20.7 BB% (26.2% over his last four starts).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Caleb Ferguson lasted 11 batters in his debut in Pittsburgh. He did strike out three of them, but also walked three and allowed four runs. He hasn’t gone beyond six innings in any AAA start this season and has faced just 28 total batters (walking seven of them) since May 26th. He has struck out more than 25% of batters at every stop since A+ to begin last season, but is not much of a prospect. The most recent Fangraphs offering on the organization suggests an above average curveball and difficult picking the ball up out of his hand, but not much more. The Rangers have been fairly competent against LHP (99 wRC+, 24.3 K%) and have been smoking the ball over the last week (18.5 HR/FB, 37.3 Hard-Soft%, 12.3 BB%). They do lose a DH tonight.
Trevor Richards is not Garrett Richards and you may have no idea why I’m saying that or why his stat lines are completely blank (except Statcast because I pull those once a week). That’s because I didn’t notice until I got to my second Angels’ pitcher that I had already mistakenly spent time writing up Garrett Richards today. But that’s why there are no stats for Trevor Richards, who has a 5.02 ERA and 4.64 FIP through 28.2 innings this year. Ten of his 28 strikeouts came in just 4.2 of those innings against the Dodgers. He has 17 strikeouts and 11 walks over his remaining 24 innings, but does have a 21.9 K-BB% at AAA this year after an 18.8 K-BB% at AA last year.
James Shields has gone at least six innings in nine straight. He hasn’t been exactly good over that span and has allowed three HRs in each of his last two starts, but he hasn’t been terrible either. He’s allowed more than three ERs just twice in his last eight starts. This will probably be a third.
Bartolo Colon has allowed 15 HRs over his last nine starts, has the lowest SwStr% (5.8) on the board, the highest xwOBA (.414) over the last 30 days and faces the hottest offense in the majors over the last week (149 wRC+, 23.3 HR/FB).
Jake Odorizzi has allowed 13 ERs over his last 14 IP. His 11.4% Barresl/BBE is second highest on the board. The matchup isn’t bad against an ice cold, lower powered offense, but it’s one that doesn’t strike out a lot (21.3% vs RHP) in what may be the most positive run environment in play today.
Ian Kennedy has a split high .394 xwOBA at home since last season. That’s how much that big park has saved his ass. Not so much this year, however. He’s allowed six HRs over his last six home starts, including three to the A’s in just 18 batters in his last home start.
Matt Strahm is just the first of many Padres who will likely face St Louis batters today.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.3% | 7.2% | 11.4% | 9.9% | Season | 24.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | Home | 29.6% | 6.3% | 13.1% | 3.2% | L14Days | 25.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 30.3% |
| Adam Plutko | Indians | L2 Yrs | 16.7% | 7.8% | 14.6% | 16.2% | Season | 16.7% | 6.9% | 15.2% | 25.4% | Road | 17.4% | 17.4% | 13.4% | L14Days | 9.5% | 4.8% | 18.2% | 22.2% | |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | L2 Yrs | 16.8% | 5.7% | 12.2% | 20.1% | Season | 14.8% | 5.1% | 11.8% | 18.6% | Home | 15.2% | 5.4% | 10.3% | 26.4% | L14Days | 18.0% | 2.0% | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 15.0% | 4.5% | 15.1% | 20.5% | Season | 15.6% | 3.5% | 21.9% | 31.5% | Road | 12.9% | 4.2% | 14.0% | 23.7% | L14Days | 12.2% | 7.3% | 30.0% | 63.6% |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 17.9% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 11.8% | Season | 16.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 14.3% | Home | 17.8% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 19.3% | L14Days | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 10.5% |
| Caleb Ferguson | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 27.3% | 27.3% | -33.3% | Season | 27.3% | 27.3% | -33.3% | Home | L14Days | 27.3% | 27.3% | -33.3% | |||||||
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 7.6% | 16.2% | 2.3% | Season | 18.0% | 6.1% | 14.1% | 2.7% | Home | 20.5% | 6.2% | 17.2% | 7.7% | L14Days | 20.0% | 6.0% | 17.6% | |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 20.2% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 15.2% | Season | 15.9% | 9.6% | 15.3% | 14.3% | Home | 20.1% | 7.2% | 15.5% | 15.4% | L14Days | 12.2% | 9.8% | 31.2% | |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | L2 Yrs | 19.2% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 18.8% | Season | 19.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 30.9% | Road | 24.0% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 17.6% | L14Days | 23.3% | 7.0% | 23.3% | |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 17.7% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 14.1% | Season | 22.8% | 3.3% | 8.8% | 17.6% | Home | 24.4% | 4.4% | 8.3% | 12.5% | L14Days | 29.6% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 19.5% |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 18.5% | 6.5% | 11.1% | 14.6% | Season | 16.1% | 3.5% | 11.0% | 22.0% | Home | 16.4% | 4.6% | 8.5% | 20.8% | L14Days | 16.0% | 10.0% | 26.7% | 24.3% |
| David Hess | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 13.6% | 6.8% | 13.3% | 16.0% | Season | 13.6% | 6.8% | 13.3% | 16.0% | Home | 10.6% | 2.1% | 9.1% | 19.5% | L14Days | 13.0% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 8.1% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 25.5% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 9.6% | Season | 27.6% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 10.1% | Road | 25.0% | 7.6% | 13.7% | 15.8% | L14Days | 25.5% | 4.3% | 9.1% | |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | L2 Yrs | Season | Home | L14Days | ||||||||||||||||
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 24.8% | Season | 20.5% | 8.3% | 14.1% | 21.8% | Home | 20.5% | 9.9% | 16.9% | 30.9% | L14Days | 18.6% | 11.6% | 23.1% | 30.0% |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 19.0% | Season | 20.4% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 19.0% | Road | 22.2% | 7.9% | 16.7% | -2.4% | L14Days | 26.1% | 4.4% | 37.5% | |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 8.9% | 17.4% | 14.3% | Season | 20.8% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 23.4% | Road | 17.0% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 16.1% | L14Days | 19.4% | 8.3% | 26.9% | |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 8.7% | 14.1% | 17.9% | Season | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 14.0% | Road | 20.7% | 11.0% | 13.7% | 13.0% | L14Days | 22.7% | 6.8% | 16.7% | 34.5% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.0% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 16.8% | Season | 16.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 18.5% | Home | 19.4% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 16.3% | L14Days | 21.4% | 5.4% | 27.3% | 29.3% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 25.0% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 10.8% | Season | 25.7% | 7.0% | 11.7% | 20.0% | Road | 24.8% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 13.8% | L14Days | 22.2% | 13.3% | 27.6% | |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Astros | L2 Yrs | 26.5% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 9.5% | Season | 24.7% | 9.4% | 14.5% | 16.0% | Road | 23.9% | 8.7% | 15.0% | 15.9% | L14Days | 16.0% | 8.0% | 22.2% | 29.0% |
| Matt Strahm | Padres | L2 Yrs | 24.7% | 13.8% | 11.1% | 6.6% | Season | 12.9% | 14.5% | 10.0% | 6.6% | Road | 19.6% | 16.1% | 15.2% | 12.9% | L14Days | 16.7% | 14.3% | 13.3% | |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Yrs | 22.7% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 12.0% | Season | 28.7% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 12.5% | Home | 25.2% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 14.6% | L14Days | 36.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 16.5% | 4.5% | 12.7% | 15.4% | Season | 14.9% | 5.1% | 13.3% | 22.6% | Home | 16.8% | 4.3% | 14.8% | 16.2% | L14Days | 19.6% | 1.8% | 20.0% | 20.4% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 18.5% | 2.9% | 9.4% | 17.3% | Season | 18.5% | 2.9% | 9.4% | 17.3% | Home | 18.7% | 1.8% | 20.8% | L14Days | 13.5% | 3.9% | 33.3% | ||
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Yrs | 17.8% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 12.6% | Season | 16.2% | 10.1% | 16.7% | 14.4% | Road | 16.8% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 7.1% | L14Days | 20.5% | 2.3% | 25.0% | 29.4% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 20.6% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 9.3% | Season | 20.6% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 8.1% | Road | 19.6% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 14.1% | L14Days | 12.1% | 10.3% | 15.4% | 15.9% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 17.8% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 6.5% | Season | 16.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 3.6% | Road | 17.7% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 4.1% | L14Days | 14.6% | 9.8% | 11.1% | -6.4% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 19.2% | 14.3% | 16.6% | 9.9% | Season | 19.6% | 20.7% | 7.0% | 14.5% | Road | 18.6% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 8.2% | L14Days | 18.8% | 22.9% | 16.7% | -3.7% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 9.4% | 15.4% | 10.9% | Season | 22.4% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 5.8% | Road | 22.5% | 7.9% | 14.5% | 11.8% | L14Days | 17.3% | 5.8% | -7.9% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Road | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.0% | 12.9% | RH | 23.3% | 8.6% | 14.4% | 10.7% | L7Days | 21.2% | 6.9% | 14.8% | 24.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 26.0% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 7.7% | RH | 24.4% | 7.0% | 11.7% | 12.7% | L7Days | 29.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 8.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 23.3% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 17.9% | RH | 24.0% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 16.8% | L7Days | 22.4% | 6.9% | 17.4% | 6.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.3% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 12.5% | RH | 21.9% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 15.8% | L7Days | 24.1% | 10.7% | 23.3% | 12.3% |
| Twins | Road | 22.9% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 18.8% | LH | 24.2% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 12.3% | L7Days | 21.1% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 20.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.2% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 14.9% | LH | 24.3% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 16.7% | L7Days | 23.4% | 12.3% | 18.5% | 37.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.8% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 17.1% | LH | 22.4% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 16.5% | L7Days | 19.3% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 12.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.9% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 15.5% | RH | 21.0% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 12.0% | L7Days | 23.2% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 10.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 13.2% | RH | 24.0% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 15.3% | L7Days | 22.6% | 10.7% | 15.4% | 32.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.0% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 15.0% | RH | 19.3% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.0% | L7Days | 17.7% | 10.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
| Astros | Road | 20.8% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 21.0% | RH | 21.9% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 16.4% | L7Days | 14.9% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 25.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 22.4% | 7.6% | 14.4% | 19.2% | RH | 19.1% | 8.2% | 14.9% | 19.3% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.3% | 12.7% | 14.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.1% | 7.8% | 13.3% | 11.6% | LH | 22.5% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 11.5% | L7Days | 23.2% | 8.9% | 6.8% | -2.2% |
| Giants | Road | 25.6% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 19.4% | RH | 25.1% | 7.0% | 11.6% | 21.1% | L7Days | 24.4% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 26.3% |
| Reds | Road | 19.5% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 18.0% | RH | 21.3% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 18.2% | L7Days | 22.4% | 12.9% | 7.7% | 32.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.1% | 6.4% | 12.5% | 9.2% | RH | 20.3% | 7.0% | 14.0% | 16.7% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.0% | 23.4% | 12.8% |
| Rays | Home | 21.7% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 17.7% | LH | 24.1% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 16.1% | L7Days | 22.6% | 3.6% | 10.9% | 14.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 25.5% | RH | 21.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 20.5% | L7Days | 24.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 13.6% |
| Indians | Road | 22.7% | 8.0% | 13.3% | 16.9% | RH | 22.6% | 8.4% | 15.4% | 24.4% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 23.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.3% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 9.2% | RH | 26.9% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 26.0% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 2.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 26.9% | RH | 22.9% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 26.1% | L7Days | 20.3% | 6.9% | 12.5% | 35.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.4% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 23.2% | LH | 22.8% | 11.3% | 19.1% | 20.4% | L7Days | 19.5% | 6.8% | 15.7% | 37.4% |
| Mets | Road | 21.8% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 20.7% | RH | 21.4% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 17.2% | L7Days | 30.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 14.7% |
| Angels | Road | 18.7% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 18.6% | RH | 20.1% | 8.5% | 13.2% | 20.8% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.4% | 14.8% | 26.6% |
| Padres | Road | 27.3% | 6.1% | 12.1% | 12.4% | RH | 25.8% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 14.8% | L7Days | 26.7% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 17.9% |
| Royals | Home | 18.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 24.4% | RH | 18.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 23.4% | L7Days | 21.2% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 21.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.0% | 12.3% | 17.0% | 19.4% | RH | 23.6% | 9.8% | 17.0% | 17.9% | L7Days | 24.9% | 8.5% | 17.3% | 8.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 24.1% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 23.2% | RH | 25.1% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 17.9% | L7Days | 23.2% | 9.1% | 20.0% | 28.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.3% | 9.8% | 15.2% | 24.8% | RH | 24.7% | 8.3% | 16.0% | 17.1% | L7Days | 27.4% | 4.6% | 20.9% | 16.0% |
| Braves | Home | 19.1% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 22.7% | RH | 20.7% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 18.9% | L7Days | 20.3% | 4.2% | 14.6% | 26.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 24.8% | 11.5% | 2.16 | 26.2% | 10.9% | 2.40 |
| Adam Plutko | Indians | 16.7% | 8.0% | 2.09 | 13.6% | 6.3% | 2.16 |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | 14.8% | 9.0% | 1.64 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 1.87 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 15.6% | 5.8% | 2.69 | 13.0% | 5.2% | 2.50 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 16.9% | 9.2% | 1.84 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.92 |
| Caleb Ferguson | Dodgers | 27.3% | 8.8% | 3.10 | 27.3% | 8.8% | 3.10 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 18.0% | 9.9% | 1.82 | 16.7% | 9.3% | 1.80 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 15.9% | 8.4% | 1.89 | 15.1% | 9.2% | 1.64 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 19.8% | 8.4% | 2.36 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 1.83 |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 22.8% | 10.2% | 2.24 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 2.24 |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | 16.1% | 8.0% | 2.01 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 2.03 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 13.6% | 8.9% | 1.53 | 13.6% | 8.9% | 1.53 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 27.6% | 11.7% | 2.36 | 24.8% | 10.3% | 2.41 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 20.5% | 8.1% | 2.53 | 19.2% | 7.9% | 2.43 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 20.4% | 12.4% | 1.65 | 24.6% | 14.2% | 1.73 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 20.8% | 8.9% | 2.34 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.01 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 23.4% | 11.3% | 2.07 | 26.6% | 12.0% | 2.22 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 16.4% | 10.0% | 1.64 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.83 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 25.7% | 12.8% | 2.01 | 26.5% | 13.4% | 1.98 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Astros | 24.7% | 12.1% | 2.04 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 2.07 |
| Matt Strahm | Padres | 12.9% | 10.9% | 1.18 | 12.5% | 10.5% | 1.19 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 28.7% | 9.8% | 2.93 | 32.5% | 10.6% | 3.07 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 14.9% | 7.7% | 1.94 | 13.2% | 6.3% | 2.10 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 18.5% | 9.4% | 1.97 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 1.78 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 16.2% | 6.0% | 2.70 | 19.1% | 8.2% | 2.33 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 20.6% | 9.6% | 2.15 | 17.7% | 8.6% | 2.06 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 16.7% | 7.2% | 2.32 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 2.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 19.6% | 7.8% | 2.51 | 14.4% | 7.4% | 1.95 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 22.4% | 9.9% | 2.26 | 24.6% | 10.1% | 2.44 |
Austin Pruitt had a 17.8 K% with a 9.6 SwStr% in 83 innings last year. Expectations should probably be somewhat similar this year. It’s not much, but it’s better.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 2.35 | 3.42 | 1.07 | 2.35 | 0.85 | 2.80 | 0.45 | 2.35 | 0.00 | 2.84 | 3.46 | 0.62 | 3.24 | 0.40 | 3.29 | 0.45 |
| Adam Plutko | Indians | 3.93 | 5.16 | 1.23 | 3.93 | 1.60 | 6.16 | 2.23 | 6.20 | 2.27 | 4.09 | 5.87 | 1.78 | 6.03 | 1.94 | 5.74 | 1.65 |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | 4.57 | 4.16 | -0.41 | 4.57 | -0.06 | 4.40 | -0.17 | 3.80 | -0.77 | 4.40 | 3.72 | -0.68 | 4.07 | -0.33 | 4.19 | -0.21 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 4.16 | 4.18 | 0.02 | 4.16 | -0.15 | 5.26 | 1.10 | 6.37 | 2.21 | 5.46 | 4.79 | -0.67 | 4.57 | -0.89 | 5.96 | 0.50 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 3.66 | 4.58 | 0.92 | 3.66 | 1.14 | 3.89 | 0.23 | 5.05 | 1.39 | 3.77 | 4.58 | 0.81 | 4.71 | 0.94 | 3.52 | -0.25 |
| Caleb Ferguson | Dodgers | 21.60 | 6.51 | -15.09 | 21.60 | -13.09 | 8.51 | -13.09 | 7.67 | -13.93 | 21.60 | 6.61 | -14.99 | 8.51 | -13.09 | 8.51 | -13.09 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 3.59 | 4.38 | 0.79 | 3.59 | 0.87 | 4.72 | 1.13 | 4.38 | 0.79 | 5.91 | 5.12 | -0.79 | 5.14 | -0.77 | 6.67 | 0.76 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 4.57 | 5.20 | 0.63 | 4.57 | 0.76 | 5.81 | 1.24 | 5.98 | 1.41 | 5.95 | 5.60 | -0.35 | 5.52 | -0.43 | 5.44 | -0.51 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 4.63 | 4.65 | 0.02 | 4.63 | -0.22 | 4.30 | -0.33 | 5.23 | 0.60 | 4.68 | 4.81 | 0.13 | 4.42 | -0.26 | 4.95 | 0.27 |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 1.88 | 3.75 | 1.87 | 1.88 | 2.15 | 3.36 | 1.48 | 2.92 | 1.04 | 1.88 | 3.75 | 1.87 | 4.03 | 2.15 | 3.36 | 1.48 |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | 3.45 | 4.33 | 0.88 | 3.45 | 0.66 | 3.88 | 0.43 | 4.18 | 0.73 | 2.65 | 4.71 | 2.06 | 4.39 | 1.74 | 4.49 | 1.84 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 3.07 | 5.18 | 2.11 | 3.07 | 2.25 | 5.49 | 2.42 | 7.09 | 4.02 | 3.07 | 5.18 | 2.11 | 5.32 | 2.25 | 5.49 | 2.42 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 3.68 | 3.45 | -0.23 | 3.68 | -0.05 | 3.44 | -0.24 | 2.93 | -0.75 | 2.51 | 3.38 | 0.87 | 3.34 | 0.83 | 2.55 | 0.04 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 5.76 | 4.44 | -1.32 | 5.76 | -1.30 | 4.73 | -1.03 | 5.25 | -0.51 | 7.66 | 4.89 | -2.77 | 5 | -2.66 | 5.33 | -2.33 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 2.48 | 4.11 | 1.63 | 2.48 | 1.84 | 3.88 | 1.40 | 4.19 | 1.71 | 2.50 | 3.37 | 0.87 | 3.79 | 1.29 | 3.88 | 1.38 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 5.57 | 4.52 | -1.05 | 5.57 | -0.81 | 4.94 | -0.63 | 5.75 | 0.18 | 5.89 | 4.48 | -1.41 | 4.57 | -1.32 | 3.16 | -2.73 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 4.24 | 4.40 | 0.16 | 4.24 | 0.53 | 5.11 | 0.87 | 5.62 | 1.38 | 4.91 | 3.67 | -1.24 | 4.21 | -0.70 | 4.47 | -0.44 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 4.92 | 5.06 | 0.14 | 4.92 | 0.16 | 4.57 | -0.35 | 4.25 | -0.67 | 4.69 | 4.54 | -0.15 | 4.72 | 0.03 | 4.84 | 0.15 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 5.66 | 3.47 | -2.19 | 5.66 | -2.45 | 3.12 | -2.54 | 2.67 | -2.99 | 8.49 | 3.67 | -4.82 | 3.36 | -5.13 | 3.02 | -5.47 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Astros | 3.94 | 3.73 | -0.21 | 3.94 | -0.39 | 3.74 | -0.20 | 3.48 | -0.46 | 4.30 | 4.27 | -0.03 | 3.98 | -0.32 | 4.71 | 0.41 |
| Matt Strahm | Padres | 3.07 | 6.06 | 2.99 | 3.07 | 3.00 | 5.63 | 2.56 | 7.01 | 3.94 | 1.54 | 5.75 | 4.21 | 5.86 | 4.32 | 4.48 | 2.94 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 2.31 | 3.70 | 1.39 | 2.31 | 1.18 | 2.98 | 0.67 | 3.03 | 0.72 | 1.13 | 3.32 | 2.19 | 2.97 | 1.84 | 2.26 | 1.13 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 4.46 | 4.44 | -0.02 | 4.46 | -0.18 | 4.38 | -0.08 | 4.26 | -0.20 | 2.83 | 3.82 | 0.99 | 3.68 | 0.85 | 3.82 | 0.99 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 2.27 | 3.62 | 1.35 | 2.27 | 1.13 | 3.08 | 0.81 | 3.56 | 1.29 | 1.93 | 4.06 | 2.13 | 3.92 | 1.99 | 2.43 | 0.50 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 6.23 | 5.01 | -1.22 | 6.23 | -1.37 | 5.46 | -0.77 | 6.68 | 0.45 | 10.72 | 4.84 | -5.88 | 4.6 | -6.12 | 5.75 | -4.97 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 3.56 | 4.20 | 0.64 | 3.56 | 0.61 | 4.09 | 0.53 | 4.34 | 0.78 | 4.00 | 4.41 | 0.41 | 4.35 | 0.35 | 3.81 | -0.19 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 4.18 | 4.80 | 0.62 | 4.18 | 0.50 | 4.25 | 0.07 | 5.38 | 1.20 | 6.12 | 4.09 | -2.03 | 4.25 | -1.87 | 3.67 | -2.45 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 3.86 | 6.19 | 2.33 | 3.86 | 1.66 | 4.99 | 1.13 | 8.22 | 4.36 | 4.79 | 7.18 | 2.39 | 6.54 | 1.75 | 6.54 | 1.75 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 4.57 | 4.00 | -0.57 | 4.57 | -0.54 | 3.77 | -0.80 | 3.61 | -0.96 | 4.03 | 3.65 | -0.38 | 3.9 | -0.13 | 3.35 | -0.68 |
Aaron Nola has a .251 BABIP, 80.2 LOB% and 8.2 HR/FB, all of which could regress slightly.
C.C. Sabathia has a .247 BABIP.
Jaime Barria has a .248 BABIP and 87.6 LOB%.
Jon Gray has a .379 BABIP and 64.2 LOB% this year. He has a .480 BABIP and 59.3 LOB% over the last month!!
Miles Mikolas has a .257 BABIP and 79.3 LOB%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.299 | 0.251 | -0.048 | 53.7% | 17.8% | 11.5% | 82.8% | 33.2% |
| Adam Plutko | Indians | 0.285 | 0.180 | -0.105 | 30.9% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 89.5% | 30.6% |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | 0.274 | 0.246 | -0.028 | 49.6% | 13.7% | 3.9% | 90.7% | 36.4% |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.302 | 0.231 | -0.071 | 46.6% | 22.0% | 11.0% | 93.1% | 34.9% |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 0.285 | 0.284 | -0.001 | 36.5% | 19.8% | 16.7% | 89.5% | 34.8% |
| Caleb Ferguson | Dodgers | 0.299 | 0.667 | 0.368 | 66.7% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 68.8% | 51.8% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.273 | 0.247 | -0.026 | 42.4% | 19.0% | 14.1% | 89.7% | 32.1% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.269 | 0.230 | -0.039 | 33.9% | 21.2% | 12.9% | 88.1% | 42.3% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 0.298 | 0.306 | 0.008 | 39.1% | 26.7% | 4.3% | 84.7% | 38.0% |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 0.277 | 0.215 | -0.062 | 32.4% | 17.6% | 8.8% | 88.7% | 44.7% |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | 0.270 | 0.242 | -0.028 | 40.2% | 23.3% | 11.0% | 88.1% | 35.7% |
| David Hess | Orioles | 0.327 | 0.239 | -0.088 | 38.3% | 13.8% | 8.9% | 89.9% | 41.5% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 0.290 | 0.294 | 0.004 | 41.6% | 18.0% | 4.2% | 84.6% | 38.7% |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 0.293 | 0.000 | -0.293 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 0.310 | 0.348 | 0.038 | 29.7% | 29.7% | 14.1% | 87.2% | 36.5% |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 0.293 | 0.248 | -0.045 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 14.3% | 83.7% | 34.5% |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 0.304 | 0.325 | 0.021 | 42.5% | 16.3% | 7.6% | 92.9% | 35.9% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.294 | 0.285 | -0.009 | 25.0% | 22.9% | 14.3% | 84.2% | 39.3% |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.291 | 0.257 | -0.034 | 36.7% | 21.1% | 9.4% | 86.2% | 37.2% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.308 | 0.379 | 0.071 | 45.6% | 25.2% | 13.3% | 84.2% | 37.2% |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Astros | 0.275 | 0.276 | 0.001 | 55.3% | 17.1% | 5.5% | 84.7% | 34.9% |
| Matt Strahm | Padres | 0.306 | 0.186 | -0.120 | 31.8% | 22.7% | 35.0% | 83.8% | 40.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.283 | 0.278 | -0.005 | 42.1% | 23.5% | 14.3% | 83.9% | 35.6% |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.295 | 0.294 | -0.001 | 47.5% | 21.1% | 6.0% | 91.3% | 31.4% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.285 | 0.257 | -0.028 | 50.8% | 22.5% | 9.4% | 89.0% | 31.2% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.303 | 0.298 | -0.005 | 44.7% | 21.9% | 15.3% | 93.6% | 35.8% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.278 | 0.245 | -0.033 | 45.9% | 19.5% | 9.2% | 87.8% | 38.3% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 0.297 | 0.265 | -0.032 | 40.3% | 20.4% | 10.8% | 90.1% | 35.8% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.261 | 0.290 | 0.029 | 54.2% | 17.6% | 11.6% | 87.9% | 37.1% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.307 | 0.317 | 0.010 | 46.7% | 17.4% | 13.6% | 84.7% | 38.0% |
Aaron Nola is a proficient weak ground ball and contact in general generator who misses a lot of bats in the strike zone and gets a decent percentage of infield flies. He’s probably in line for a small increase in BABIP, but he does have a quality profile.
Austin Pruitt doesn’t have much in his profile besides a likely unsustainably low line drive rate.
C.C. Sabathia generates a good amount of popups and weak contact, while the Yankee defense has been a strength (especially since Torres arrived). Considering what the defense has done, he may only have a few points of regression.
Jaime Barria has had a strong profile thus far. Let’s see if he keeps it up.
Jon Gray has a ridiculous BABIP that’s part Coors, but mostly just ridiculous. The one caveat is that he does have a 31.2 Hard-Soft% over the last month, but that’s still ridiculous. It’s ridiculous how many times I’ve said ridiculous here.
Miles Mikolas doesn’t really have anything outstanding in his profile, but a 31.2 Z-O-Swing% might be a clue as to how he generates so many weak ground balls.
Zack Wheeler has a .273 BABIP over his last three starts, which has brought his season rate down to a more reasonable number.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.265 | -0.028 | 0.256 | 0.002 | 0.276 | -0.018 | 0.100 | 86.6 | 4.1 | 32.300 | 220 |
| Adam Plutko | Indians | 0.349 | -0.025 | 0.356 | -0.144 | 0.393 | -0.081 | -1.100 | 91.9 | 9.1 | 52.700 | 55 |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | 0.318 | -0.022 | 0.319 | 0.010 | 0.293 | -0.003 | -1.700 | 87.6 | 5.7 | 30.000 | 140 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.370 | -0.060 | 0.363 | -0.005 | 0.414 | -0.066 | -2.000 | 90.3 | 7.3 | 44.000 | 232 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 0.317 | -0.012 | 0.354 | -0.010 | 0.332 | -0.021 | -0.400 | 88.7 | 7.1 | 34.700 | 98 |
| Caleb Ferguson | Dodgers | 0.411 | 0.101 | 0.411 | 0.101 | -0.800 | ||||||
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.293 | 0.007 | 0.309 | 0.000 | 0.323 | 0.024 | 0.600 | 84.4 | 6.0 | 27.700 | 184 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.354 | -0.029 | 0.321 | 0.001 | 0.376 | -0.047 | -1.600 | 85.6 | 7.7 | 28.600 | 196 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 0.383 | -0.048 | 0.331 | -0.022 | 0.398 | -0.023 | -0.200 | 90.7 | 8.8 | 41.200 | 204 |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 0.334 | -0.089 | 0.346 | 0.014 | 0.334 | -0.089 | -0.100 | 88.8 | 11.8 | 38.200 | 68 |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | 0.354 | -0.076 | 0.345 | -0.083 | 0.349 | -0.103 | -0.100 | 88.7 | 7.9 | 36.200 | 254 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 0.324 | -0.005 | 0.298 | -0.042 | 0.324 | -0.005 | -1.300 | 88.6 | 9.6 | 42.600 | 94 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 0.290 | -0.006 | 0.304 | -0.012 | 0.296 | -0.022 | -0.800 | 88.2 | 4.5 | 31.500 | 178 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 0.354 | -0.011 | 0.342 | -0.073 | 0.313 | 0.036 | -0.100 | 89.1 | 7.1 | 41.700 | 84 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 0.385 | -0.014 | 0.394 | -0.027 | 0.383 | 0.032 | 0.000 | 89.2 | 10.6 | 38.900 | 216 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 0.338 | -0.065 | 0.335 | -0.009 | 0.341 | -0.068 | -1.100 | 88.2 | 6.7 | 34.300 | 105 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 0.344 | 0.019 | 0.333 | 0.010 | 0.314 | 0.011 | -0.700 | 90 | 8.6 | 42.300 | 163 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.348 | -0.004 | 0.330 | -0.018 | 0.343 | 0.020 | -1.100 | 88.6 | 11.4 | 42.000 | 193 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.360 | -0.055 | 0.346 | -0.032 | 0.340 | -0.022 | 0.600 | 88 | 9.0 | 36.100 | 255 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.314 | 0.027 | 0.313 | 0.012 | 0.350 | 0.054 | 0.500 | 87.9 | 5.2 | 34.800 | 210 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Astros | 0.321 | -0.027 | 0.334 | -0.011 | 0.359 | -0.072 | -1.000 | 89.7 | 8.5 | 39.000 | 200 |
| Matt Strahm | Padres | 0.405 | -0.112 | 0.366 | 0.014 | 0.357 | -0.111 | -1.000 | 86.9 | 11.1 | 31.100 | 45 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.296 | -0.022 | 0.328 | -0.016 | 0.251 | -0.011 | -0.500 | 88 | 7.1 | 33.700 | 184 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.390 | -0.058 | 0.337 | -0.018 | 0.324 | -0.037 | -1.800 | 90.1 | 7.9 | 44.000 | 266 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.292 | -0.041 | 0.264 | -0.046 | 0.273 | -0.040 | -0.400 | 86.3 | 6.2 | 28.400 | 243 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.363 | -0.003 | 0.341 | 0.021 | 0.404 | 0.030 | -1.100 | 88.9 | 8.3 | 35.200 | 216 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.328 | -0.043 | 0.322 | -0.031 | 0.316 | -0.001 | -1.100 | 86.6 | 5.4 | 33.500 | 221 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 0.341 | -0.036 | 0.331 | -0.011 | 0.324 | 0.009 | 0.700 | 84.9 | 7.8 | 30.100 | 219 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.371 | -0.036 | 0.332 | -0.029 | 0.409 | -0.041 | -0.600 | 87.6 | 5.7 | 32.300 | 158 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.319 | -0.010 | 0.308 | 0.017 | 0.302 | -0.001 | 0.900 | 85.6 | 7.4 | 31.600 | 190 |
Aaron Nola has the top xwOBA on the board by 25 points.
I would not have guessed Eduardo Rodriguez for the second best xwOBA and rate of Barrels/BBE on this board. He has a reasonable 7.5 BB% with solid contact management and a high strikeout rate. He consistently passes the 100 pitch mark. I wonder why he can’t get deeper into games.
If we consider that the two pitchers who reach that mark have a total of three starts and seven innings in those starts this year, we really don’t have anyone above a .400 xwOBA on this board. It’s a number I wouldn’t expect to see many pitchers at after 100 innings or so.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
On a day where we don’t have a single trustable strikeout rate above 28% (nobody is above a 13 SwStr%), what are we to do? The other obvious things to look at are matchup, workload and contact management. You probably also have to realize you’re not giving up as much when considering lower strikeout guys tonight, which is why you’ll see some of them as reasonable fourth tier options today. They’re generally not going to be my go-to guys, but if you build a DK lineup and have that much left for your SP2, it might be okay to use a Leake, Sabathia or Garcia today.
Value Tier One
Jon Gray (3) didn’t exactly pay off his low price once he finally got outside Coors in his last start in Cincinnati and the contact authority is nothing to brag about over the last month, but this simply can’t keep up. He’s too good and he’s continued to miss bats at a strong rate over this span. He’s in a super high upside spot for $8K or less in Philly.
Value Tier Two
Aaron Nola (1) is the top pitcher on the board. It’s difficult to even question that today. He’s also the most expensive, reaching a price tag we’re not accustomed to ($12K) on DraftKings, but it makes some sense given the matchup. Ironically, I have the two pitchers facing each other in this game projected for the two best strikeout rates tonight. There may not be a lot of hard contact or contact at all in this one.
Value Tier Three
Miles Mikolas (2) generally doesn’t miss many bats, but he could combine some strikeouts with a deep run into tonight’s start against the Padres. That’s the hope at least, when paying up tonight.
Austin Pruitt is absolutely loved by the numbers today, purely due to cost. I’ll discount that a bit, but a good chunk of the battle is won just with the length he’s been giving them recently when you cost $4.3K on DraftKings.
Zack Wheeler hasn’t seen the results yet, but he’s consistently giving his team six innings of weak contact with a slightly above average strikeout rate. Shouldn’t that be worth more than $7K in a neutral spot?
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Eduardo Rodriguez (4t) costs $11.1K on DraftKings. Considering that Baltimore has better peripherals against LHP, I’m not sure I can pay that price for a guy rarely goes beyond six innings. Bump him up a tier for sure $2.6K less on FanDuel.
Lance McCullers (4t) costs less than $10K on either site and while the potential upside must still be recognized, it hasn’t been there recently and the spot, while not bad, isn’t even that great in Oakland.
Jaime Garcia is cheap (on both sites) in a favorable spot in Tampa Bay. That’s really the beginning and end of it. He’s been very hit or miss, but has pitched very well in two of his last three starts.
Jaime Barria has been a quality arm for the Angels, especially over his last four starts in some really tough spots. Tonight’s matchup in Seattle is not great, but reasonable. Wipe him off the board for an absurd $9.2K on DraftKings. He costs just $6.8K on FanDuel though.
Mike Leake is a reasonable SP2 on DraftKings for $6.7K. He’s not likely to miss a lot of bats, but he generally goes deep into games, pitches in a negative run environment and has improved contact management since the start of the season. There’s not a ton of value here, but there may be some. Likely not much at $8K on FanDuel though.
Chris Stratton is in Miami. That’s it. I mean, he has the fifth worst xwOBA on the board. This illustrates how low we’ll sink to get a great matchup. It seems as though the Marlins have been ruining a ton of these for us against better pitchers, but that must be confirmation bias because the numbers still say differently. I’m not sure I can pay $7.9K for him on DraftKings though.
C.C. Sabathia might be too cheap in a reasonable spot. Despite the HRs, he’s a strong contact manager (maybe the best on the board) with enough strikeouts at a cost around $6.5K. He probably won’t go deep or win anyone a GPP though.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.