Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, June 27th
While Max Scherzer is always a pleasure to find on any slate, what the rest of this board lacks in high end arms, it may make up for in mid-tier value and overall usefulness. Nearly half of tonight’s arms could probably be considered on most nights, but on a board so deep we might even avoid some talented arms in difficult matchups.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 2.4 | 3.58 | 5.74 | 51.3% | 0.89 | 3.55 | 3.67 | SEA | 112 | 107 | 121 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.5 | 4.68 | 5.76 | 47.1% | 0.97 | 4.77 | 4.55 | PIT | 92 | 92 | 84 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -7.8 | 3.77 | 6.3 | 54.3% | 1.13 | 3.82 | 4.22 | ARI | 114 | 105 | 104 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 4.6 | 4.47 | 5.76 | 34.3% | 0.94 | 4.98 | 2.36 | NYM | 118 | 104 | 136 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 2.7 | 3.66 | 5.42 | 44.7% | 1.13 | 3.51 | 4.64 | MIN | 92 | 91 | 77 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 3.9 | 5.06 | 5.38 | 32.8% | 1.13 | 5.69 | BOS | 94 | 101 | 87 | |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.3 | 3.5 | 6.46 | 53.2% | 1.01 | 3.82 | 3.53 | WAS | 120 | 111 | 128 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 7.9 | 3.67 | 5.59 | 46.3% | 0.89 | 3.52 | 4.17 | PHI | 71 | 82 | 69 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 1.1 | 4.43 | 5.1 | 44.2% | 0.93 | 3.93 | 5.94 | SFO | 74 | 80 | 96 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | -1.5 | 4.24 | 5.45 | 42.8% | 0.89 | 4.94 | 4.92 | LOS | 124 | 109 | 152 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -9.1 | 4.35 | 5.42 | 49.9% | 0.91 | 3.9 | 4.2 | ATL | 97 | 93 | 83 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | -2.3 | 3.57 | 4.89 | 55.1% | 1.03 | 3.59 | 4.78 | BAL | 94 | 96 | 113 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -0.3 | 3.88 | 6.39 | 42.9% | 0.98 | 3.75 | 2.97 | NYY | 103 | 97 | 80 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -3.4 | 4.75 | 5.89 | 43.6% | 1.02 | 4.56 | 6.43 | CIN | 105 | 100 | 93 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 2.6 | 3.8 | 6.52 | 33.9% | 0.98 | 4.08 | 3.63 | KAN | 85 | 82 | 74 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 2 | 3.76 | 5.42 | 41.4% | 0.89 | 3.86 | 3.44 | ANA | 83 | 94 | 111 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -2.7 | 4.1 | 5.73 | 43.6% | 1.03 | 4.33 | 3.7 | TOR | 95 | 93 | 104 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 5.8 | 3.74 | 5.48 | 50.6% | 0.98 | 3.61 | 4.4 | CHW | 97 | 83 | 95 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.6 | 4.99 | 5.1 | 39.0% | 0.93 | 4.56 | 5.78 | COL | 82 | 79 | 29 |
| Matt Strahm | KAN | 7.8 | 4.02 | 4. | 41.0% | 0.98 | 4.99 | 4.46 | DET | 116 | 108 | 95 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0 | 2.86 | 6.8 | 35.5% | 1.01 | 2.92 | 2.54 | CHC | 91 | 89 | 102 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | -4.5 | 4.62 | 4.57 | 38.3% | 1.09 | 4.8 | 5.28 | TEX | 83 | 97 | 119 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | -1.9 | 4.24 | 5.73 | 42.7% | 0.94 | 3.87 | 4.25 | OAK | 86 | 104 | 121 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | -1.5 | 4.35 | 5.5 | 53.5% | 0.94 | 4.81 | 6.04 | MIA | 91 | 92 | 25 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -14.2 | 3.98 | 5.76 | 0.451 | 0.94 | 3.75 | 3.49 | HOU | 116 | 113 | 134 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | -0.6 | 4.81 | 6.03 | 0.491 | 0.91 | 5.58 | SDG | 85 | 70 | 68 | |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -7.4 | 3.98 | 5.65 | 0.43 | 1.13 | 3.98 | 3.77 | STL | 92 | 99 | 110 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 10.3 | 4.78 | 5.37 | 0.372 | 1.02 | 5.13 | 5.48 | MIL | 94 | 96 | 103 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | -6.8 | 4.68 | 5.02 | 0.429 | 0.97 | 5.33 | 4.45 | TAM | 102 | 117 | 159 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 4.5 | 3.39 | 5.72 | 0.585 | 1.09 | 5.07 | CLE | 102 | 106 | 110 |
Aaron Nola has had mixed results, showing well in his last effort (7.1 IP – 1 ER – 8 K) and now has a 49.1 GB%, 3.5 Hard-Soft% and 15.2 K-BB% on the season. That’s an above average pitcher. He’ll need to face a good offense with a DH tonight, but in a neutralizing park in Seattle.
Drew Pomeranz had been rolling and still hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in seven of his last eight starts, but has struck out just 11 of his last 71 batters. He did have an 11.8 SwStr% in his last start though and previously struggled to miss bats against Detroit and Houston, offenses a lot of LHPs have trouble dealing with. His 24.6 Soft% would be third in baseball with enough innings to qualify, behind only a knuckleballer and Kershaw, though it seems to be either extreme with him (37.2% 95+ mph aEV) with very little middling contact. The extremely positive run environment enhances a Minnesota offense that that has been dropping. Their elite walk rate (10.3%) has been higher than their HR rate (9.6 HR/FB) vs LHP.
James Paxton allowed at least three ERs for the fourth straight start last time out, but his eight strikeouts were his highest total in six starts. It was great news to see his velocity and SwStr% bounce back up after decline in the month of June had led to injury speculation (at least from me). He still hasn’t gone more than 5.1 innings since April, but did get over 100 pitches in his last start, so it’s more a performance limitation than a workload one. For the season, he’s been able to avoid barrels (3% per BBE) and kept 72% of his contact below 95 mph off the bat, which is a nice compliment to his 18.5 K-BB% when facing a poor Philadelphia offense in a great park. One might look at the 15.0 HR/FB and 12.4 K-BB% vs LHP and think the Phillies may be in line to improve on an 82 wRC+ vs LHP and while that may be true eventually, one must also consider this pitcher’s reverse platoon splits (RHBs .285 wOBA career).
Joe Biagini has struggled in recent starts (10 ER – 6.2 IP), though he did strike out five of 25 batters with a 55.6 GB% in his last start. All was not rosy beneath the results though with a 52.6 Hard%. Through nine starts, he retains a 58.2 GB% and 13.2 K-BB% (9.7 SwStr%), but those numbers have been declining with more exposure to the league, so our time with him may not be long if he falters again tonight. For now, we’ll continue to bet on that profile against an under-achieving Baltimore offense (18.0 K-BB% on the road, 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP, 19.2 K-BB% last seven days).
Jose Quintana is coming off back-to-back strong starts (13.2 IP – 2 ER – 2 BB – 14 K) in Toronto and Minnesota, though his SwStr rate has been below 9% in each of those starts. His ground ball rate has been above 50% in three of his last four starts. He faces a Yankee offense that has been just average on the road and against LHP.
Justin Verlander struck out 11 of 22 Mariners in his last start, but an 11.2 BB% keeps his K-BB at 11.2% for the season. Now we’ll get to some different numbers. His 37.8 Hard% is a concern with just a 34 GB%, as his Statcast numbers don’t paint an optimistic picture either. However, he might survive a more spacious park in Kansas City. The Royals do not accept walks and have limited power against RHP.
Kenta Maeda has made two of his four June appearances in relief. There’s a bit of uncertainty with his workload here, but he retains an elite SwStr% with a 3.4 Hard-Soft% on the year. His 83.4 mph aEV and 25.1% 95+ mph EV are both best on the board. He faces a below average offense without either Trout or a DH in an extremely negative run environment.
Luis Severino has been roughed up in two straight starts (12 IP – 10 R – 6 BB – 11 K – 53 BF) with a below average SwStr% for just the second and third times this season, though with some positive qualities as well (63.9 GB% and 0.0 Hard-Soft%). He’s still just one of nine pitchers with a 20 point gap in K and BB rates (20.1%), while his 56.1 GB% ranks second among that group and sixth overall. He has a quality matchup against the White Sox (16.6 K-BB% vs RHP) with a bit of a park upgrade.
Max Scherzer has double digit strikeouts in six straight starts. The Cubs are a favorable matchup on the road against RHP.
Sean Manaea has a 14.7 SwStr% behind only Scherzer on this board. He’s had a run of tough luck facing the Yankees and Houston in his last two starts and travels to face Houston again tonight. He’s allowed eight runs in 12 innings in those starts, but struck out 15 of 54 batters. His 40.7% 95+ mph EV is worst on the board, but his 4.8% Barrels/BBE is one of the better marks.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Taijuan Walker (.308 – 73.4% – 8.5) has struck out 14 of 49 batters (11 IP – 4 ER – 5 BB) in two starts returning from injury in Detroit and Colorado. It doesn’t get much easier in his home park, though the St Louis offense hasn’t been very potent this season. They do have a 23.3 HR/FB over the last week. If he continues being serviceable in these spots, I look forward to the first healthy decent spot he finds himself in.
Dan Straily (.259 – 75.6% – 10.2) should have trouble retaining both the low BABIP and HR rate with a 34.2 Hard%, although his 27% 95+ mph aEV suggests the contact issue isn’t that bad. His career BABIP is .255, so I’ll go with the HR rate climbing, but not necessarily in his nice new home park. He is at home tonight, but facing a quality offense on the road this season.
Carlos Martinez (.256 – 76.8% – 12.3) has a 19.0 K-BB% and is a matchup omission on a deep slate. He might be in the worst spot on the board in Arizona, who are third best against ground ball pitchers (122 sOPS+) and have a 17.2 HR/FB at home. There should also be a bit of skepticism towards his K% and SwStr% relationship over the last month.
Mike Fiers (.267 – 85.8% – 23.7) has a .262 BABIP and 80.6 LOB% over the last month, so mostly the same, right? He hasn’t allowed a HR though. That said, he also has a 62.2 GB%, -2.3 Hard-Soft%, 22.8 K% and 11.5 SwStr%, so there’s certainly some interesting stuff going on there and the A’s do strike out a lot. I don’t think anybody will be on him tonight either. The day I include him in the wish list is the day he gives up six runs though. I’m doing this for you.
Tim Adleman (.266 – 76.2% – 14.8) has a .223 BABIP and 90.2 LOB% over the last month. He has missed bats at a reasonable rate and is in a high strikeout spot against the Brewers (24.6 K% vs RHP), but also a dangerous one (18.8 HR/FB vs RHP).
Alex Cobb (.317 – 73.6% – 10.5) has a 26.1 Hard-Soft% with a below average 9.7 K-BB%.
Junior Guerra (.212 – 88% – 15.2)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jake Arrieta is one of a few perfect examples of those tier five omissions tonight. Despite only striking out three in his last start, he ironically had one of his best starts of the season by results in Miami (7 IP – 1 ER). His 17.8 K-BB% still suggests an above average pitcher with some value at least at his $7.5K DraftKings price, though FanDuel ($9.4K) could be a bit aggressive. He’s in one of the toughest spots on the board in Washington tonight, though this offense was handled by Eddie Butler last night.
Jeff Hoffman got blasted for the first time this year against the Diamondbacks at Coors. However, he’s now struck out just four of his last 46 batters (all at home). Perhaps he’ll return better results with a massive park upgrade in San Francisco. What the Giants lack in power, they sometimes make up by frustrating daily fantasy opposers with consistent contact.
Sean Newcomb struck out seven in his first start with just two walks. Walks plagued him in his second start. He walked just one in his last start, but only struck out three for the second straight outing. We know he can miss bats from his minor league track record, but walks were a huge problem. The Padres have a 24.9 K% vs LHP.
Matt Strahm has struck out seven of 35 batters in two starts, but lasted only three innings in his second one, allowing five ERs with one-third of his contact hit hard and only one-quarter of it on the ground. The lefty is barely above the minimum on DraftKings, but may have a difficult time with Detroit.
Jhoulys Chacin has extreme home/road splits this year with a 1.72 ERA, 14.3 K-BB%, and 6.4 Hard-Soft% at home. He also has a .177 BABIP and 90.6 LOB%. He may still be worth a shot here on most days against a below average opponent, but probably has less value beyond his price tag than a lot of other pitchers tonight.
Mike Clevinger misses enough bats to be worth a desperate dart through on a poor slate. His 12.8 BB% is what makes him not worth that on this one.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.4% | 6.3% | Road | 22.2% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 24.6% | 7.0% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 16.2% | 6.7% | Road | 14.0% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 6.6% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.4% | 8.2% | Road | 24.9% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 10.6% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.7% | 9.0% | Home | 21.7% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 2.4% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 26.8% | 8.6% | Home | 27.7% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 8.3% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 18.3% | 9.9% | Road | 17.3% | 11.5% | L14 Days | ||
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.2% | 7.7% | Road | 21.8% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 4.3% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 24.2% | 6.5% | Home | 24.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 10.9% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.3% | 8.5% | Road | 23.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 10.9% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.3% | Road | 17.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 4.1% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.6% | Home | 21.0% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 7.8% |
| Joe Biagini | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.7% | 5.9% | Home | 20.9% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 5.4% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.9% | 5.9% | Home | 23.7% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 4.1% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.4% | 9.9% | Road | 20.2% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.3% | 7.3% | Home | 27.7% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 11.5% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.0% | 7.0% | Home | 25.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 4.4% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.2% | 7.1% | Road | 20.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 9.8% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 23.6% | 7.7% | Road | 24.1% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 11.3% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 15.6% | 8.2% | Home | 17.4% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 4.2% |
| Matt Strahm | Royals | L2 Years | 29.0% | 14.3% | Road | 25.6% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.7% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.0% | 5.5% | Home | 34.2% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 36.2% | 5.2% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 23.7% | 12.6% | Home | 23.0% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 12.8% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.0% | 7.1% | Home | 19.9% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 9.8% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 18.1% | 7.8% | Road | 16.0% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 22.8% | 7.2% | Road | 23.6% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 7.4% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 17.8% | 9.6% | Road | L14 Days | 12.8% | 10.6% | ||
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 21.4% | 6.1% | Home | 22.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 10.2% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 18.8% | 8.3% | Home | 20.7% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 15.7% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.6% | 7.0% | Home | 14.3% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 8.7% |
| Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 25.4% | 9.3% | Road | L14 Days | 18.0% | 10.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Home | 20.6% | 9.6% | RH | 21.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 23.9% | 10.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.6% | 9.2% | RH | 18.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.7% | 8.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.8% | 9.2% | RH | 22.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.1% | 8.8% |
| Mets | Road | 20.2% | 9.3% | RH | 19.1% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.0% | 9.8% |
| Twins | Road | 22.0% | 8.8% | LH | 20.4% | 10.3% | L7Days | 26.2% | 8.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.3% | 9.4% | LH | 16.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.3% | 9.0% | RH | 19.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.7% | 10.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.5% | 7.1% | LH | 20.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.9% | 7.6% |
| Giants | Home | 19.4% | 6.6% | RH | 19.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 16.7% | 6.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.3% | 10.7% | RH | 23.3% | 10.7% | L7Days | 20.7% | 16.7% |
| Braves | Road | 19.3% | 7.7% | RH | 19.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.3% | 4.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.6% | 6.4% | RH | 22.8% | 6.7% | L7Days | 25.2% | 6.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.0% | 9.0% | LH | 23.3% | 10.6% | L7Days | 22.6% | 8.8% |
| Reds | Home | 21.7% | 8.6% | RH | 20.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.8% | 6.4% |
| Royals | Road | 21.5% | 6.4% | RH | 21.2% | 6.5% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.0% |
| Angels | Road | 21.7% | 9.2% | RH | 20.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.7% | 8.1% | RH | 20.3% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.4% | 9.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.5% | 7.7% | RH | 22.7% | 6.1% | L7Days | 22.0% | 4.9% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.8% | 7.6% | RH | 22.2% | 7.9% | L7Days | 27.3% | 6.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.0% | 9.2% | LH | 19.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.2% | 7.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.8% | 10.2% | RH | 22.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 21.6% | 10.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 27.1% | 8.1% | RH | 23.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 28.2% | 9.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.4% | 8.6% | RH | 24.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.8% | 10.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.0% | 8.0% | RH | 20.4% | 6.7% | L7Days | 24.1% | 4.2% |
| Astros | Home | 17.0% | 7.8% | LH | 17.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 16.6% | 9.3% |
| Padres | Home | 24.3% | 8.6% | LH | 24.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 27.3% | 11.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.4% | 8.4% | RH | 21.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.0% | 9.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.4% | 8.7% | RH | 24.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.2% | 7.6% |
| Rays | Road | 26.6% | 9.3% | RH | 25.0% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.9% | 12.8% |
| Indians | Home | 18.6% | 9.6% | RH | 19.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 14.9% | 10.8% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.7% | 13.9% | 6.4% | 2017 | 28.2% | 13.7% | 3.5% | Road | 29.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 37.2% | 12.7% | 23.1% | 2017 | 39.3% | 10.5% | 26.1% | Road | 35.0% | 12.9% | 21.2% | L14 Days | 44.7% | 0.0% | 29.8% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 2017 | 32.9% | 12.3% | 12.7% | Road | 34.1% | 10.2% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 16.7% | 30.0% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.5% | 11.4% | 15.7% | 2017 | 34.2% | 10.2% | 13.0% | Home | 34.0% | 8.4% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 12.5% | 3.7% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.1% | 13.9% | 9.8% | 2017 | 32.4% | 15.5% | 7.8% | Home | 34.5% | 17.9% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 9.1% | -8.6% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 36.3% | 11.9% | 19.6% | 2017 | 36.7% | 13.7% | 19.3% | Road | 35.4% | 10.2% | 16.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.2% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 2017 | 32.4% | 16.5% | 11.6% | Road | 30.5% | 16.5% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 28.6% | 8.9% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.4% | 8.1% | 17.5% | 2017 | 31.6% | 7.3% | 15.5% | Home | 30.7% | 7.8% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 48.3% | 28.6% | 31.1% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 34.0% | 13.9% | 14.9% | 2017 | 33.7% | 7.1% | 15.9% | Road | 32.1% | 16.2% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 0.0% | 16.2% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 33.1% | 17.1% | 15.3% | 2017 | 35.4% | 19.0% | 19.2% | Road | 40.0% | 17.7% | 25.6% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 14.3% | 5.0% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 32.0% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 2017 | 30.6% | 17.6% | 10.8% | Home | 28.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 33.3% | 2.9% |
| Joe Biagini | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 25.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 2017 | 28.7% | 9.6% | 9.9% | Home | 27.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 22.2% | 33.3% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 32.1% | 9.9% | 14.4% | 2017 | 31.4% | 12.9% | 13.5% | Home | 35.2% | 16.3% | 18.3% | L14 Days | 42.4% | 25.0% | 39.4% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.6% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 2017 | 28.8% | 15.2% | 7.2% | Road | 31.6% | 9.2% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 18.8% | 5.9% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.9% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 2017 | 37.8% | 8.9% | 23.2% | Home | 32.9% | 10.1% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 0.0% | 24.2% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.1% | 12.4% | 7.5% | 2017 | 25.7% | 13.9% | 3.4% | Home | 26.8% | 10.5% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 0.0% | -6.6% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.1% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 2017 | 34.4% | 14.6% | 17.5% | Road | 33.3% | 17.2% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 14.3% | 30.0% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.0% | 16.4% | 5.6% | 2017 | 28.0% | 15.6% | 7.3% | Road | 27.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 33.4% | 14.2% | 15.0% | 2017 | 33.2% | 12.9% | 17.5% | Home | 31.5% | 12.9% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 20.0% | 16.7% |
| Matt Strahm | Royals | L2 Years | 28.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 2017 | 28.0% | 13.3% | 8.0% | Road | 33.3% | 12.0% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.0% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 2017 | 25.6% | 11.3% | 5.9% | Home | 25.9% | 10.8% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 8.3% | -3.3% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 30.9% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 2017 | 30.4% | 14.6% | 14.7% | Home | 32.5% | 12.8% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 9.1% | 16.7% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 31.4% | 15.8% | 12.8% | 2017 | 27.9% | 23.7% | 8.6% | Home | 33.3% | 15.6% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 0.0% | -2.9% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 32.0% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 2017 | 33.9% | 18.8% | 14.8% | Road | 35.0% | 15.6% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 37.5% | 32.6% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 34.6% | 12.9% | 16.8% | 2017 | 37.0% | 10.9% | 20.6% | Road | 36.0% | 16.1% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 20.0% | 37.2% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 22.6% | 6.7% | 1.8% | 2017 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 1.8% | Road | L14 Days | 30.6% | 10.0% | 11.2% | |||
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.6% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 2017 | 34.8% | 8.5% | 18.8% | Home | 30.3% | 16.1% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 11.1% | 30.0% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 33.5% | 14.2% | 18.4% | 2017 | 31.5% | 14.8% | 15.3% | Home | 33.7% | 15.3% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 48.4% | 16.7% | 29.0% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.2% | 13.9% | 6.4% | 2017 | 30.0% | 10.6% | 4.7% | Home | 33.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 0.0% | 9.4% |
| Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 25.4% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 2017 | 39.3% | 11.1% | 35.7% | Road | L14 Days | 39.3% | 11.1% | 35.7% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Home | 29.7% | 12.2% | 10.1% | RH | 31.4% | 12.1% | 13.3% | L7Days | 33.3% | 14.8% | 14.9% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.4% | 9.8% | 8.1% | RH | 30.2% | 10.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 28.4% | 16.7% | 5.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 39.0% | 17.2% | 25.9% | RH | 36.3% | 16.0% | 19.4% | L7Days | 33.7% | 12.3% | 16.3% |
| Mets | Road | 37.4% | 16.8% | 19.6% | RH | 35.6% | 13.7% | 18.3% | L7Days | 36.3% | 13.3% | 16.1% |
| Twins | Road | 31.7% | 13.6% | 14.5% | LH | 30.9% | 9.6% | 12.6% | L7Days | 33.9% | 14.5% | 14.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 38.2% | 8.7% | 20.8% | LH | 33.7% | 10.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 37.2% | 14.8% | 19.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.7% | 15.6% | 16.3% | RH | 31.6% | 14.8% | 14.3% | L7Days | 36.6% | 16.7% | 20.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 28.7% | 10.1% | 7.0% | LH | 29.4% | 15.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 29.4% | 9.6% | 7.1% |
| Giants | Home | 25.1% | 6.0% | 3.3% | RH | 28.1% | 9.2% | 5.7% | L7Days | 30.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.2% | 18.3% | 21.3% | RH | 35.1% | 15.6% | 20.3% | L7Days | 38.4% | 23.5% | 21.0% |
| Braves | Road | 32.2% | 12.9% | 14.3% | RH | 31.0% | 11.9% | 12.2% | L7Days | 23.7% | 16.7% | -6.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 35.0% | 14.1% | 16.0% | RH | 31.0% | 15.7% | 10.5% | L7Days | 40.0% | 19.6% | 19.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.0% | 13.3% | 12.9% | LH | 29.4% | 13.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 26.6% | 15.6% | 5.1% |
| Reds | Home | 29.1% | 15.9% | 7.8% | RH | 29.3% | 13.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 33.1% | 7.9% | 17.7% |
| Royals | Road | 32.4% | 15.4% | 13.2% | RH | 32.7% | 12.4% | 13.6% | L7Days | 30.4% | 9.1% | 8.0% |
| Angels | Road | 32.4% | 10.8% | 12.9% | RH | 30.7% | 13.3% | 10.9% | L7Days | 30.8% | 11.3% | 11.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.9% | 14.4% | 11.0% | RH | 31.3% | 15.2% | 11.6% | L7Days | 29.9% | 7.3% | 12.7% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.1% | 12.7% | 8.3% | RH | 31.4% | 13.2% | 12.8% | L7Days | 32.1% | 16.7% | 14.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.1% | 11.7% | 8.7% | RH | 29.0% | 12.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.5% | 6.8% | -1.2% |
| Tigers | Home | 49.0% | 13.8% | 35.7% | LH | 42.0% | 16.4% | 25.4% | L7Days | 41.7% | 13.8% | 19.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.0% | 13.1% | 8.3% | RH | 30.0% | 13.6% | 12.1% | L7Days | 28.4% | 12.7% | 6.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.9% | 16.0% | 10.8% | RH | 34.0% | 16.9% | 13.9% | L7Days | 44.8% | 28.1% | 27.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 35.8% | 11.9% | 17.2% | RH | 34.3% | 14.8% | 17.7% | L7Days | 31.9% | 16.7% | 12.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.8% | 16.3% | 10.0% | RH | 31.2% | 14.4% | 11.0% | L7Days | 26.5% | 14.7% | 0.0% |
| Astros | Home | 29.8% | 16.2% | 11.7% | LH | 28.2% | 15.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 41.3% | 16.4% | 21.7% |
| Padres | Home | 27.9% | 13.2% | 5.5% | LH | 30.2% | 12.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.6% | 12.5% | -6.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.8% | 14.8% | 15.3% | RH | 31.4% | 14.4% | 12.0% | L7Days | 33.7% | 23.3% | 10.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.5% | 16.6% | 11.2% | RH | 33.4% | 18.8% | 14.1% | L7Days | 31.3% | 14.0% | 13.3% |
| Rays | Road | 35.2% | 18.1% | 16.3% | RH | 37.2% | 19.2% | 20.3% | L7Days | 46.9% | 22.2% | 32.8% |
| Indians | Home | 31.2% | 13.0% | 14.8% | RH | 34.0% | 12.8% | 18.2% | L7Days | 30.5% | 5.3% | 15.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 22.5% | 9.5% | 2.37 | 24.6% | 8.0% | 3.08 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 16.5% | 7.5% | 2.20 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 2.21 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 27.8% | 10.7% | 2.60 | 30.3% | 9.7% | 3.12 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 25.4% | 12.2% | 2.08 | 26.9% | 12.6% | 2.13 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 26.1% | 10.5% | 2.49 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 1.92 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 16.5% | 7.4% | 2.23 | 16.7% | 3.7% | 4.51 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 24.7% | 10.2% | 2.42 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 2.38 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 26.9% | 12.6% | 2.13 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 2.06 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 25.7% | 10.8% | 2.38 | 22.1% | 9.0% | 2.46 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 17.6% | 7.9% | 2.23 | 15.3% | 6.7% | 2.28 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 20.2% | 8.7% | 2.32 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 2.02 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 20.3% | 9.2% | 2.21 | 19.5% | 9.4% | 2.07 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 23.5% | 8.3% | 2.83 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 2.86 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 16.7% | 10.4% | 1.61 | 14.2% | 8.9% | 1.60 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.42 | 23.7% | 9.7% | 2.44 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 24.9% | 14.4% | 1.73 | 28.0% | 14.3% | 1.96 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 16.5% | 8.7% | 1.90 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 2.41 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 26.9% | 11.4% | 2.36 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.13 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 13.1% | 4.8% | 2.73 | 9.2% | 3.3% | 2.79 |
| Matt Strahm | KAN | 25.6% | 11.3% | 2.27 | 23.8% | 12.3% | 1.93 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 35.3% | 16.0% | 2.21 | 38.9% | 16.6% | 2.34 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 26.7% | 13.4% | 1.99 | 25.3% | 13.5% | 1.87 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 20.1% | 10.0% | 2.01 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 1.98 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 15.5% | 7.5% | 2.07 | 15.2% | 8.4% | 1.81 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 26.6% | 14.7% | 1.81 | 27.5% | 16.2% | 1.70 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 17.8% | 10.3% | 1.73 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 1.73 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 22.1% | 10.0% | 2.21 | 28.6% | 12.2% | 2.34 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 21.1% | 10.8% | 1.95 | 22.0% | 10.6% | 2.08 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 16.3% | 8.8% | 1.85 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 1.67 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 18.0% | 5.3% | 3.40 | 18.0% | 5.3% | 3.40 |
Aaron Nola hasn’t had a double digit SwStr% in a start since April (seven starts), but has been between 8% and 10% in three of his last four. It could be enough to retain a slightly better than average K%.
Jose Quintana has a 2.37 K/SwStr for his career, only running highly above that since last season. I’m not ready to concede yet.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 4.32 | 4.03 | -0.29 | 3.8 | -0.52 | 3.79 | -0.53 | 3.16 | -1.16 | 4.3 | 3.79 | -0.51 | 3.5 | -0.8 | 3.68 | -0.62 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 4.05 | 4.72 | 0.67 | 4.58 | 0.53 | 4.14 | 0.09 | 4.94 | 0.89 | 4.55 | 4.83 | 0.28 | 4.8 | 0.25 | 3.68 | -0.87 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 2.87 | 3.68 | 0.81 | 3.48 | 0.61 | 3.33 | 0.46 | 2.42 | -0.45 | 2.04 | 3.4 | 1.36 | 3.23 | 1.19 | 2.54 | 0.5 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 3.43 | 4 | 0.57 | 4.29 | 0.86 | 3.74 | 0.31 | 3.11 | -0.32 | 2.7 | 3.19 | 0.49 | 3.14 | 0.44 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 4.07 | 3.84 | -0.23 | 3.67 | -0.4 | 3.88 | -0.19 | 3.38 | -0.69 | 3.1 | 4.09 | 0.99 | 3.78 | 0.68 | 3.52 | 0.42 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 5.26 | 5.47 | 0.21 | 5.94 | 0.68 | 5.92 | 0.66 | 7.75 | 2.49 | 12.1 | 6.31 | -5.79 | 7.38 | -4.72 | 11.72 | -0.38 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.36 | 3.84 | -0.52 | 3.78 | -0.58 | 4.09 | -0.27 | 3.96 | -0.40 | 3.21 | 4.14 | 0.93 | 3.73 | 0.52 | 4.03 | 0.82 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 3.39 | 3.8 | 0.41 | 3.55 | 0.16 | 2.78 | -0.61 | 2.67 | -0.72 | 6.56 | 4.35 | -2.21 | 3.95 | -2.61 | 4.64 | -1.92 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 4.29 | 3.66 | -0.63 | 3.88 | -0.41 | 2.86 | -1.43 | 3.68 | -0.61 | 4.91 | 4.08 | -0.83 | 4.14 | -0.77 | 2.77 | -2.14 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 5.15 | 4.74 | -0.41 | 4.72 | -0.43 | 5.51 | 0.36 | 5.45 | 0.30 | 5.27 | 5.06 | -0.21 | 5 | -0.27 | 5.55 | 0.28 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 4.95 | 4.31 | -0.64 | 4.19 | -0.76 | 4.62 | -0.33 | 4.95 | 0.00 | 3.56 | 4.11 | 0.55 | 3.93 | 0.37 | 4.65 | 1.09 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 4.45 | 3.69 | -0.76 | 3.7 | -0.75 | 3.25 | -1.2 | 3.22 | -1.23 | 5.4 | 3.99 | -1.41 | 3.98 | -1.42 | 3.55 | -1.85 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 4.69 | 4.22 | -0.47 | 4.19 | -0.5 | 4.06 | -0.63 | 4.06 | -0.63 | 4.39 | 3.69 | -0.7 | 3.29 | -1.1 | 4.37 | -0.02 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 3.11 | 5.78 | 2.67 | 5.81 | 2.7 | 6.03 | 2.92 | 6.71 | 3.60 | 3.1 | 6.35 | 3.25 | 6.26 | 3.16 | 6.21 | 3.11 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.52 | 4.78 | 0.26 | 5.01 | 0.49 | 4.2 | -0.32 | 3.50 | -1.02 | 3.71 | 4.54 | 0.83 | 4.1 | 0.39 | 3.1 | -0.61 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 4.62 | 3.92 | -0.7 | 4.14 | -0.48 | 4.15 | -0.47 | 4.20 | -0.42 | 3.5 | 3.79 | 0.29 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 3.75 | 0.25 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 6.47 | 5.26 | -1.21 | 5.24 | -1.23 | 5.36 | -1.11 | 6.93 | 0.46 | 7.09 | 5.31 | -1.78 | 5 | -2.09 | 5.12 | -1.97 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3.3 | 3.39 | 0.09 | 3.17 | -0.13 | 3.34 | 0.04 | 2.79 | -0.51 | 3.62 | 3.41 | -0.21 | 3.28 | -0.34 | 3.26 | -0.36 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 5.54 | 5.48 | -0.06 | 5.31 | -0.23 | 5.16 | -0.38 | 8.46 | 2.92 | 8.1 | 5.64 | -2.46 | 5.46 | -2.64 | 7.12 | -0.98 |
| Matt Strahm | KAN | 4.8 | 4.7 | -0.1 | 4.84 | 0.04 | 4.77 | -0.03 | 3.65 | -1.15 | 3.52 | 4.35 | 0.83 | 4.39 | 0.87 | 3.59 | 0.07 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.09 | 2.73 | 0.64 | 3.11 | 1.02 | 2.78 | 0.69 | 1.70 | -0.39 | 0.92 | 2.22 | 1.3 | 2.42 | 1.5 | 1.71 | 0.79 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 3.86 | 4.43 | 0.57 | 4.42 | 0.56 | 4.52 | 0.66 | 3.47 | -0.39 | 5.03 | 4.54 | -0.49 | 4.94 | -0.09 | 5.48 | 0.45 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 3.81 | 4.46 | 0.65 | 4.4 | 0.59 | 5.65 | 1.84 | 5.58 | 1.77 | 1.72 | 3.82 | 2.1 | 3.66 | 1.94 | 2.63 | 0.91 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 6.04 | 4.69 | -1.35 | 4.66 | -1.38 | 5.27 | -0.77 | 6.91 | 0.87 | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 | 5.03 | -0.37 | 6.67 | 1.27 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 4.05 | 3.9 | -0.15 | 3.85 | -0.2 | 3.52 | -0.53 | 2.82 | -1.23 | 3.66 | 3.69 | 0.03 | 3.6 | -0.06 | 3.54 | -0.12 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 1.96 | 4.81 | 2.85 | 4.34 | 2.38 | 3.57 | 1.61 | 6.19 | 4.23 | 1.96 | 4.81 | 2.85 | 4.34 | 2.38 | 3.57 | 1.61 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 3.43 | 4.24 | 0.81 | 4.11 | 0.68 | 3.45 | 0.02 | 4.15 | 0.72 | 3.27 | 3.77 | 0.5 | 3.43 | 0.16 | 3.14 | -0.13 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 4.3 | 4.7 | 0.4 | 5.01 | 0.71 | 5.17 | 0.87 | 6.47 | 2.17 | 3.41 | 4.94 | 1.53 | 5.37 | 1.96 | 5.52 | 2.11 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 5.09 | 4.77 | -0.32 | 4.85 | -0.24 | 4.37 | -0.72 | 4.62 | -0.47 | 4.18 | 4.67 | 0.49 | 4.61 | 0.43 | 3.67 | -0.51 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 9.35 | 5.05 | -4.3 | 4.77 | -4.58 | 4.41 | -4.94 | 4.46 | -4.89 | 9.35 | 5.07 | -4.28 | 4.77 | -4.58 | 4.41 | -4.94 |
Aaron Nola has estimators that like him more than his ERA increasingly going from left to right on the chart above. It’s not immediately clear where he’s lacking, but I’m going to take a run at the .307 BABIP, which is in line with his career rate and the team defense this year. However, he’s generating so much weak contact that it seems either a launch angle issue or defensive efficiency issue. Considering the average line drive rate, I’ll hold the defense accountable here.
Joe Biagini has just a 53.6 LOB% as a starter.
Max Scherzer has a .230 BABIP. He has an incredibly elite profile, but that may be too low. His 81.8 LOB% is not really disputable with a 35.3 K%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.306 | 0.307 | 0.001 | 49.1% | 0.207 | 5.9% | 85.1% | 86.1 | 4.10% | 2.90% | 170 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.296 | 0.317 | 0.021 | 45.7% | 0.227 | 7.4% | 91.1% | 88.3 | 5.30% | 4.00% | 303 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.291 | 0.256 | -0.035 | 50.8% | 0.168 | 12.3% | 86.3% | 87.1 | 5.20% | 3.30% | 252 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 0.291 | 0.259 | -0.032 | 38.1% | 0.17 | 15.3% | 84.0% | 86 | 6.30% | 4.10% | 222 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.314 | 0.327 | 0.013 | 42.4% | 0.227 | 11.3% | 86.4% | 87.8 | 7.70% | 5.10% | 207 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 0.290 | 0.264 | -0.026 | 31.7% | 0.185 | 14.7% | 87.8% | 90.5 | 11.60% | 8.40% | 207 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.283 | 0.311 | 0.028 | 44.0% | 0.232 | 8.9% | 82.5% | 87.1 | 6.20% | 4.20% | 241 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.283 | 0.329 | 0.046 | 42.5% | 0.246 | 10.9% | 80.8% | 86.2 | 3.00% | 1.90% | 168 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 0.297 | 0.296 | -0.001 | 38.0% | 0.2 | 9.5% | 86.6% | 87.8 | 6.90% | 4.70% | 101 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 0.288 | 0.286 | -0.002 | 41.7% | 0.214 | 6.0% | 87.2% | 88.7 | 9.20% | 6.90% | 271 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.298 | 0.293 | -0.005 | 53.4% | 0.169 | 12.2% | 88.5% | 86.8 | 6.30% | 4.50% | 252 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 0.301 | 0.294 | -0.007 | 58.2% | 0.143 | 3.8% | 90.2% | 85.3 | 3.60% | 2.70% | 192 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.283 | 0.304 | 0.021 | 41.9% | 0.206 | 15.1% | 89.3% | 87.4 | 6.00% | 4.00% | 252 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.300 | 0.212 | -0.088 | 38.5% | 0.193 | 13.0% | 84.9% | 86.7 | 6.30% | 4.30% | 111 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.309 | 0.303 | -0.006 | 34.0% | 0.217 | 8.0% | 85.3% | 88.7 | 8.70% | 5.70% | 254 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.279 | 0.279 | 0 | 34.5% | 0.226 | 8.3% | 79.3% | 83.4 | 4.00% | 2.70% | 175 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.316 | 0.374 | 0.058 | 41.2% | 0.242 | 10.4% | 86.5% | 89.1 | 9.70% | 7.00% | 279 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.285 | 0.275 | -0.01 | 56.1% | 0.158 | 9.4% | 85.7% | 87.1 | 6.90% | 4.50% | 232 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.321 | 0.340 | 0.019 | 43.1% | 0.232 | 7.5% | 91.8% | 87.8 | 5.40% | 4.20% | 280 |
| Matt Strahm | KAN | 0.302 | 0.268 | -0.034 | 37.5% | 0.208 | 6.7% | 80.0% | 84.4 | 8.00% | 4.70% | 75 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.299 | 0.230 | -0.069 | 38.7% | 0.152 | 12.3% | 78.2% | 85.7 | 6.00% | 3.40% | 234 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.307 | 0.260 | -0.047 | 38.6% | 0.208 | 7.3% | 82.4% | 87.9 | 10.80% | 6.40% | 102 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.292 | 0.267 | -0.025 | 50.4% | 0.165 | 6.6% | 85.3% | 85.9 | 7.70% | 5.40% | 234 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.316 | 0.324 | 0.008 | 53.2% | 0.194 | 8.7% | 88.5% | 86.6 | 6.20% | 4.70% | 257 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.292 | 0.268 | -0.024 | 47.3% | 0.183 | 3.1% | 82.9% | 88.8 | 4.80% | 3.00% | 189 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 0.283 | 0.212 | -0.071 | 49.1% | 0.226 | 6.7% | 86.3% | 87.3 | 1.90% | 1.40% | 53 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.290 | 0.308 | 0.018 | 50.0% | 0.179 | 10.2% | 83.8% | 87.9 | 5.90% | 4.00% | 187 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.291 | 0.266 | -0.025 | 38.1% | 0.165 | 6.8% | 83.5% | 86.6 | 5.10% | 3.50% | 197 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 0.306 | 0.290 | -0.016 | 42.2% | 0.225 | 16.7% | 88.2% | 85.8 | 5.80% | 4.40% | 190 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 0.290 | 0.296 | 0.006 | 39.3% | 0.286 | 0.0% | 92.9% |
James Paxton has a pretty enormous LD rate, which is a bit surprising considering his strong Statcast contact management numbers. Perhaps that foreshadows improvement. He’s compensated by keeping his HR rate down.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
James Paxton (2) looked better with velocity and SwStr readings suggesting health may not have been the issue. That gives him immense value potentially at a reasonable price at home against the Phillies.
Max Scherzer (1) is today’s Super Boss. He’s so far ahead of any other pitcher, but also costs a fortune. Good luck affording him.
Value Tier Two
Aaron Nola in parts looks better than the sum as we seem to be waiting for him to consistently put it all together, but at that point he’s going to cost a lot more than $7K to $8K. He may not give it you every start right now, but when he does, it far exceeds the cost.
Value Tier Three
Luis Severino (3) hasn’t been as sharp in his two most recent outings, but contact quality has remained strong and poor sequencing (48.2 LOB%). The most concerning aspect may be a drop in SwStr% despite continuing to strike out batters at a league average rate. He’s the third costliest pitcher on DraftKings, but less so on FanDuel in a quality spot against the White Sox tonight.
Joe Biagini grades out more highly by pure numbers, but there has to be some recognition that he doesn’t have a long track record and has been more hittable in recent starts. He remains a reasonable SP compliment on DraftKings at a low cost in a decent spot for now. He’s still generating ground balls and missing bats at a league average rate.
Drew Pomeranz struggled against Detroit in all aspects and followed up by struggling with peripherals against Houston, but seemed to bounce back in a better spot against Kansas City last time out. He’s an above average pitcher in what seems a neutral spot at an average or even slightly better cost.
Kenta Maeda generates swings and misses and weak contact with the best of them. These metrics suggest he’s a star. The surface results haven’t agreed and there’s always the question of workload. In a favorable spot he could cover an average cost in five innings, better if he lasts longer.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Justin Verlander is allowing hard contact with too many walks and too much hard contact, but that profile could match up well with the Royals in Kansas City at a reasonable cost.
Jose Quintana has been able to limit HRs throughout his career. He’s not doing that this year and in fact has a 25 HR/FB over the last month as he’s increased his ground ball rate significantly. However, all five of those HRs came in two starts. He’s allowed just six total runs in four June starts and been really good in his last two. At a cost around $8K, he’ll likely be a quick pass for most players against the Yankees, but they’re a bit banged up right now and have just been average on the road and against LHP.
Sean Manaea has been an elite swing and miss generator, who continues his run of dominant offenses, facing Houston for the second consecutive start after the Yankees. He’s been allowing some runs, but still missing bats and now costs just $6.2K on DraftKIngs. He may end up being the top guy next time he’s in a reasonable spot.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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