Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, May 2nd
I’m more of a Fangraphs guy than a Baseball-Reference guy with the particular preference being that the former just seems easier to navigate. BR just always seemed too cluttered and I could rarely find what I wanted in a relatively easy manner, while I’ve always felt that FG leaned more progressive as well. The unfortunate part of my own narrow-mindedness is that I just recently found something that BR has that I’ve been looking to understand more for a while now.
It appears BR has filters for how teams perform against GB, FB, and neutral pitchers and also Power, Finesse, and neutral pitchers. Considering recent trends in velocity increases and the fly ball rates, I really believe this might be something worth exploring and eventually even adding to the stats here. For now, I’ll attempt to mention whenever something seems really relevant, though I may lean more towards the extremes in identifying these situations than BR, which just seems to split everything neatly in thirds.
One question I do have, and perhaps somebody more familiar with BR can answer either on the comments or on Twitter, concerns where I might be able to find individual batter lists. They’re available upon popup by each individual team, but that would necessitate downloading 30 separate files. I’m wondering if I could find league-wide batter leaderboards for the entire league for each of the splits.
We’re tackling the standard Tuesday slate, loaded with the full 15 games, followed by another full 15 tomorrow night too, which is a bit less standard. It’s going to be a busy two days.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | -11.1 | 5.15 | 4.85 | 35.6% | 1.13 | 5.4 | 7.08 | BOS | 99 | 98 | 74 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 5.9 | 4.24 | 5.1 | 50.6% | 0.94 | 4.58 | 3.41 | MIA | 86 | 87 | 70 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | -11.6 | 3.9 | 5.78 | 51.1% | 0.89 | 3.14 | 2.7 | SFO | 81 | 70 | 57 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -18.8 | 3.69 | 6.12 | 55.1% | 0.98 | 3.56 | 3.2 | MIL | 118 | 95 | 123 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 1.6 | 2.87 | 7.05 | 41.5% | 1.13 | 3.1 | 1.62 | BAL | 106 | 87 | 84 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | -2.4 | 3.8 | 6.47 | 48.1% | 0.94 | 3.82 | 5.87 | HOU | 112 | 104 | 120 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -13.7 | 3.28 | 6.83 | 42.5% | 0.98 | 3.4 | 3.18 | DET | 118 | 121 | 129 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 14.6 | 4.04 | 5.86 | 37.4% | 1.06 | 4.04 | 5.46 | CHW | 78 | 125 | 123 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 4.8 | 4.63 | 5.64 | 48.3% | 0.94 | 4.38 | 7 | TAM | 87 | 111 | 88 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 16.2 | 4.33 | 6.23 | 41.9% | 1.04 | 4.13 | 4.41 | OAK | 78 | 100 | 70 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 3.5 | 3.7 | 5.85 | 46.3% | 0.89 | 3.33 | 2.3 | ANA | 69 | 104 | 96 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 12.2 | 4.19 | 5.7 | 40.4% | 0.96 | 4.56 | 4.79 | CHC | 87 | 91 | 79 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 12.7 | 3.45 | 6.39 | 48.9% | 0.96 | 3.42 | 4 | PHI | 88 | 101 | 117 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 1.1 | 3.84 | 6.48 | 44.0% | 1.06 | 4.6 | 3.16 | KAN | 89 | 45 | 114 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 1.6 | 3.66 | 6.61 | 33.8% | 0.98 | 3.78 | 5.04 | CLE | 103 | 125 | 107 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 4.2 | 3.66 | 6.45 | 48.9% | 1.01 | 3.48 | 3.43 | TOR | 92 | 81 | 96 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | -1.6 | 4.51 | 5.54 | 45.4% | 1.01 | 6.16 | 6.47 | NYY | 141 | 120 | 128 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.4 | 3.8 | 6.06 | 44.8% | 1 | 4.01 | 6.66 | ATL | 93 | 96 | 129 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 1.3 | 4.43 | 5.82 | 39.4% | 0.89 | 4.86 | 3.6 | LOS | 122 | 74 | 93 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | -2.9 | 3.92 | 5.77 | 41.0% | 0.89 | 4.55 | 3.51 | SEA | 131 | 112 | 129 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | -5.6 | 4.1 | 5.67 | 40.8% | 0.94 | 3.77 | 4.35 | TEX | 75 | 99 | 102 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.9 | 4.75 | 6.17 | 42.5% | 1 | 4.83 | 5.03 | NYM | 112 | 80 | 105 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 22.6 | 4.37 | 5.61 | 46.4% | 1.02 | 4.29 | 4.69 | PIT | 83 | 85 | 114 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -10.6 | 4.01 | 6. | 53.9% | 1.04 | 4.2 | MIN | 95 | 108 | 133 | |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -11.2 | 3.77 | 5.71 | 0.415 | 1.01 | 4.47 | 2.2 | WAS | 136 | 119 | 187 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | -8.2 | 4.22 | 6.04 | 0.483 | 1.01 | 4.14 | 5.27 | ARI | 59 | 105 | 106 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 5.1 | 3.42 | 5.8 | 0.595 | 0.91 | 3.93 | 2.99 | COL | 74 | 78 | 84 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 1.3 | 4.56 | 5.91 | 0.568 | 0.91 | 4.23 | 5.7 | SDG | 77 | 84 | 94 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 6 | 4.77 | 3.88 | 0.47 | 1.02 | 4.01 | 4.93 | CIN | 77 | 95 | 104 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -7.7 | 4.63 | 5.39 | 0.501 | 0.98 | 4.45 | 4.97 | STL | 99 | 103 | 141 |
Alex Wood gets his first home start of the season after his first three occurred on the road. In his most recent, he was fantastic against these Giants, allowing just a hit and a walk through six innings with a 25 K%, 71.4 GB% and 14.3 Hard%. He’s one of seven starters with at least three starts and a GB rate above 60%. Only four of them have an above-average strikeout rate. On top of that, the Giants may represent the top matchup on the board at this current point in time. Dodger Stadium is one of the most pitcher-friendly run environments in baseball and the Giants have a 19.7 Hard% as a team over the last week. They’re also striking out at a more average pace against LHP and on the road this season. While better against GB pitchers this season, they still have just a 90 sOPS+ (reads on the same scale as wRC+) against worm-killing pitchers this year. While he won’t maintain a BABIP below .200, the 10% walk rate is not a concern as five of his eight walks came in his first start.
Carlos Martinez has done a lot of good things this year, but let’s get the red flags out of the way first. He’s retained a near double-digit walk rate in two starts since he walked eight Yankees and his 46.7 GB% is well below his 54.1% career average, while hard contact (31.4% – around league average) is above 30% for the first time in his career. Four HRs allowed is already more than a quarter of the way to the 15 he allowed last year (a career high). He also has a top five SwStr% on the board with a career high 29.8 K% so far. He’s gotten at least seven in four of five starts. The Brewers are a formidable offense (23.8 HR/FB on the road, 21.8 HR/FB vs RHP) but represent one of the top strikeout spots on the board (25.9% vs RHP).
Chris Sale has double-digit strikeouts in four straight games. He hasn’t gone fewer than seven innings or allowed more than two ERs in any start, while pitching into the eighth inning and allowing one run or less each three times. His 17.0 SwStr% is second in the majors, while his 37.4 K% is best. Although he doesn’t necessarily limit hard contact, his 2.5% Barrels/BBE is a top-three mark on tonight’s board. The Orioles have a 25.4 K% on the road and continue to struggle against LHP (26.2%).
James Paxton has probably been the second most dominant pitcher in the American League next to the guy directly above. He’s struck out either eight or nine batters in four straight games, completing seven innings in three of them. He has the sixth best strikeout rate and eighth best SwStr% among major league qualifiers. The issue is that the Angels, a predominantly RH lineup, has retained an exceptionally low strikeout rate against LHP (16.7%). However, they have just a 4.4 HR/FB vs LHP, just a 75 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers (which he’s been this year), and a 68 sOPS+ vs power pitchers (second worst in majors), while he’s actually been much better against RHBs. Just ask the Tigers (7 IP – 0 R – 9 K last time out).
Masahiro Tanaka only struck out three of 29 Boston batters in his shutout last time out, but located nearly perfectly, generating 17 ground balls with a 30.8 Soft% (34.6 Hard%). His ground ball rate is up to a career high 55.4% with a career low 6.5 Hard-Soft%. Toronto scored a few runs last night, but continue to be a shell of their formerly potent selves due to some combination of injuries, departures and aging. They additionally have just an 87 sOPS+ against GB pitchers.
Trevor Cahill has gone exactly 5.2 innings in three of his four starts (seven in the other) with at least six strikeouts in every one. He’s walked too many batters (10.7%) and allows too much hard contact (37.7%), but most of it’s been on the ground (60.7%). As mentioned earlier, only four starters have exceeded both a 60% ground ball rate and 20% strikeout rate so far this season (three start min.). He’s not just exceeding the league average strikeout rate, he’s obliterating it. His SwStr% is 10th in the majors, while his K% is 13th. The Rockies represent one of the top matchups on the board in San Diego.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Ervin Santana (.129 – 99% – 5.6) is probably the most obvious pitcher placed in this section. None of what he’s doing is even remotely sustainable. That said, if he’s a league-average arm (probably), he can be of use here against an Oakland lineup that’s been striking out a ton (24.7% both on the road and vs RHP, 29.3% over the last week. There just isn’t as much comfort in his cost as there is with other pitchers listed above (or at the bottom too, I guess). He’s a perfectly reasonable fourth tier pitcher on most days and one of two pitchers to just miss the cut.
Scott Feldman (.288 – 82.3% – 11.1) is missing bats at a surprisingly high rate and does face a now below-average Pittsburgh offense in a park that is more frightening for power enhancement than it is for true run environment, but with Kevin projecting another strong outward-bound wind tonight, that power potential turns into a bigger concern for a pitcher facing a predominantly RH lineup with a small career reverse split (RHBs .330 wOBA). Also, the Pirates don’t strike out and have been better overall recently.
Jeremy Hellickson (.196 – 88.2% – 4.4) is mind-boggling in how he can be so fortunate in every area seemingly besides his strikeout rate. The Cubs are better than this…aren’t they?
Danny Duffy (.281 – 81.2% – 5.1) was thumped for six runs by these White Sox last time out, not even making it out of the fifth inning, striking out just two. While foreseeing better days in his future, especially with a 13.0 SwStr%, this team not only hits LHP very well, but have a 113 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers (30% above their overall mark – largest increase in the majors), though they have 63 sOPS+ against power pitchers (worst in baseball).
Cole Hamels (.219 – 79.1% – 12.5) has just a 2.3 K-BB%. He’s still walking batters at a 9% clip and allowing harder contact (22.0 Hard-Soft%) with several fewer strikeouts. Nine of his 15 Ks came in his first two starts to make matters even worse. I’d have difficulty accepting that strand rate at this strikeout rate, despite his 77.1% career rate.
R.A. Dickey (.274 – 70.4% – 19.0) and everything about the non-conformity of knuckle ball pitchers to their estimators, but the thing is, he is pretty much conforming this year except for 28.6% of his runs being unearned.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jon Lester will likely be just fine against the Phillies tonight, though this offense appears improved. You’re essentially paying $10K for defense though. The strikeout rate is only average with the SwStr% a bit below this year. The 55.7 GB% would be a career high though. A ground ball generator with a potential above-average strikeout rate is something we’re often willing to pay some money for and he’d often make the cut in this spot, but just misses tonight.
Taijuan Walker dominated the Padres for 11 strikeouts in his last start. Appearing to be healthier than last season, this is a pitcher I intend to use frequently on the road this season, but perhaps not in Washington tonight. They’re still hitting like they never left Coors. It might be the worst spot on the board tonight. That I’m still nearly tempted speaks well towards his performance this year.
Justin Verlander has a greatly reduced SwStr% and K% from last year with a double-digit walk rate and an absurd 27.7 Hard-Soft% mostly in the air. His starts have fluctuated quite a bit in all of those capacities though. He’s struck out exactly four three times with at least eight in each of the other two. More than half of his runs were allowed in one start as nearly half of his walks were in another. He certainly represents a pitcher with a ton of upside, but we currently have to consider him as a bit of a risk too, especially for $10K. That start where he allowed nine runs? Against the Indians, who have been punishing RHP this year.
Corey Kluber has completely turned it around over his last two starts, striking out 19 of 61 batters, while allowing three runs in 16 innings. In fact, he’s struck out at least eight in each of his last three, though in that third start back, this Detroit team tagged him for a season high six runs with a 57.3 Hard%. Going back to last year, he’s a virtual lock for six IP and six strikeouts every time out, but for the second highest cost on the board, you need more than that and he may not get it against this offense. The difference between their hard and soft contact rates is higher than a lot of teams’ hard contact rates in total.
Tyler Chatwood makes it difficult to see if there’s something much different there or not due to Coors. He’s struck out just 10 of his 81 batters and allowed at least four ERs in four of five starts, walking three on three occasions. Is he just a ground ball guy again (54.8%) or was his 21.3 K% in the second half of 2016 for real? I don’t think we have an answer yet. A more positive outlook on his strikeout potential would make him a stronger play at his current cost in San Diego (26.3 K% vs RHP), but the below-average strikeout rate fits the below-average SwStr% to this point, which basically makes him a cheaper Tanner Roark, which is why he slots in just ahead of him here.
Tanner Roark is fairly well in line with his non-FIP estimators so far. If you want to pay $8K for a generally low-upside weak contact generator, go for it. Arizona has traditionally been a poor offense away from home and may even add a few strikeouts to his line tonight. He’s just the type of pitcher that has to be nearly flawless to generate any fantasy value.
Mike Fiers may have a few more strikeouts in his arm. A reasonable matchup at a low price gets him this high, but the upside is limited and he’s rarely an arm you want to trust on a full slate. He may occasionally be a tier four guy on some of the less desirable shorter ones though.
Jose Quintana dominated the Royals for 10 Ks and a 15.2 SwStr% last time out, but that’s no great feat, especially for a LHP these days. He’s otherwise had a below-average SwStr% in every other start with a career high 33.3 Hard% and career low 38.6 GB%. The fact that he’s facing these Royals again (23.3 K%, 0.0 Hard-Soft% vs LHP) would be an extreme positive, but maybe not one worth paying $9K with his potentially declining skill set.
Matt Shoemaker does not seem to be following the pattern of stark home/road splits from last year and has allowed exactly two runs in four of five starts with an above-average strikeout rate despite the ERA with estimators well above four. He’s also pitching in a favorable run environment in Seattle, but against a potent offense. He’s also pitched more than 5.1 innings just once, while HRs, which have occasionally been an issue for him have once against become so. He’s allowed six already.
Sonny Gray appeared to look good and held previous velocity in a couple of minor league rehab starts, but he didn’t lose velocity last year when he wasn’t very good, perhaps due to injuries. I’ll admit to having absolutely no clue what to expect from him this year, much less this start. He’s previously beaten his estimators fairly soundly with the thought being a lean towards weak ground balls and a great park benefiting his results.
Matt Harvey blames a drop in velocity and poor performance in his last start on a heavy workout the night before he was called upon to replace Noah Syndergaard three hours before the start of a day game. Maybe, though I’m not sure the skill set was there before. Velocity was down in his previous start against the Nationals too and he’s had a sub-8% swinging strike rate in all but one start. Of all his plate discipline metrics, only his 47.7 Zone% is on par with career rates.
Edinson Volquez stands a decent chance of generating a few strikeouts here, but there are no other positives here.
Matt Moore is allowing the most concerning contact on the board according to his Statcast metrics.
Tyler Glasnow seems bound either for the bullpen or the minors in the not too distant future.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | Orioles | L2 Years | 12.4% | 6.0% | Road | 9.0% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 16.1% | 5.7% | Road | 11.6% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 6.0% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 20.1% | 7.5% | Home | 25.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 4.8% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.4% | 8.6% | Home | 21.8% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 9.8% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.9% | 4.9% | Home | 29.1% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 38.3% | 1.7% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 23.0% | 7.8% | Road | 22.8% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 8.9% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.1% | 6.1% | Road | 26.2% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 31.2% | 9.8% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 21.9% | 7.4% | Home | 22.4% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 9.6% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 17.3% | 9.2% | Home | 18.2% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 19.5% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.5% | Home | 19.5% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 10.4% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 22.9% | 6.3% | Home | 24.8% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 34.7% | 4.1% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 19.0% | 5.9% | Road | 15.7% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.6% | 6.2% | Home | 25.0% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 7.3% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.5% | 6.0% | Road | 19.7% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 10.2% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.4% | 6.5% | Home | 29.3% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 16.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 20.8% | 4.6% | Home | 22.9% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 3.5% |
| Mat Latos | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 17.2% | 8.0% | Road | 11.1% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 14.6% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 21.4% | 5.9% | Road | 19.8% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 5.9% | 13.7% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 20.0% | 8.3% | Road | 19.2% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 8.5% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 21.2% | 5.6% | Road | 18.2% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 8.2% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.8% | 7.2% | Home | 19.7% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 9.8% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 15.7% | 7.6% | Home | 16.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 8.7% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 16.1% | 7.0% | Home | 16.7% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 10.6% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.6% | 7.8% | Road | 18.5% | 9.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.2% | 5.6% | Road | 19.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 1.9% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 18.9% | 7.5% | Home | 21.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 13.7% |
| Trevor Cahill | Padres | L2 Years | 25.4% | 10.8% | Home | 24.0% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 9.3% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.4% | 10.2% | Road | 18.8% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 11.8% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.7% | 13.8% | Road | 25.6% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 13.6% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.5% | 8.2% | Road | 15.0% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 6.5% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Home | 17.4% | 8.3% | RH | 17.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 22.7% | 7.7% | RH | 20.9% | 5.8% | L7Days | 17.4% | 5.5% |
| Giants | Road | 19.9% | 7.3% | LH | 20.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 22.3% | 5.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 22.2% | 8.0% | RH | 25.9% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.4% | 6.6% | LH | 26.2% | 7.3% | L7Days | 24.2% | 9.0% |
| Astros | Home | 18.6% | 6.6% | LH | 18.6% | 10.6% | L7Days | 21.7% | 5.2% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.2% | 10.0% | RH | 21.4% | 11.1% | L7Days | 17.1% | 10.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.9% | 6.0% | LH | 16.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.9% | 7.7% |
| Rays | Road | 28.1% | 10.7% | RH | 25.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 23.2% | 13.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 24.7% | 8.0% | RH | 24.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 29.3% | 7.6% |
| Angels | Road | 22.9% | 8.4% | LH | 16.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 23.5% | 9.6% | RH | 22.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.7% | 9.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.8% | 7.8% | LH | 22.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.9% | 8.9% |
| Royals | Home | 18.2% | 7.3% | LH | 23.3% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.9% | 6.3% |
| Indians | Road | 19.1% | 9.7% | RH | 21.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 24.4% | 9.6% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.8% | 8.9% | RH | 22.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.1% | 7.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.1% | 11.5% | RH | 20.8% | 10.0% | L7Days | 23.9% | 11.2% |
| Braves | Home | 19.5% | 8.0% | RH | 20.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.7% | 7.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.8% | 9.5% | LH | 21.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 17.6% | 10.4% | RH | 20.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 21.4% | 8.1% | RH | 22.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 27.4% | 9.3% |
| Mets | Road | 21.1% | 9.7% | RH | 21.1% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.7% | 8.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 17.7% | 8.6% | RH | 16.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.2% | 12.1% |
| Twins | Home | 21.4% | 12.7% | RH | 21.2% | 11.8% | L7Days | 16.0% | 10.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.8% | 8.8% | RH | 19.2% | 10.0% | L7Days | 17.8% | 10.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 27.0% | 7.8% | RH | 24.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 26.0% | 8.1% | RH | 21.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.0% | 8.9% |
| Padres | Home | 22.9% | 8.2% | RH | 26.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 26.8% | 5.0% |
| Reds | Home | 22.3% | 7.2% | RH | 20.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 22.2% | 8.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.0% | 10.5% | RH | 19.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.4% | 10.7% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.8% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 2017 | 23.8% | 0.0% | 4.7% | Road | 28.1% | 0.0% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | -20.0% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 38.3% | 19.6% | 25.5% | 2017 | 45.5% | 17.9% | 36.4% | Road | 33.1% | 20.6% | 20.7% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 14.3% | 35.1% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.6% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 2017 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | Home | 25.9% | 10.0% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 14.3% | 10.3% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 2017 | 31.6% | 17.4% | 5.3% | Home | 26.9% | 15.4% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 42.9% | 6.5% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.6% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 2017 | 32.5% | 3.4% | 15.0% | Home | 33.9% | 18.3% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.5% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 2017 | 36.0% | 12.5% | 22.0% | Road | 30.3% | 12.4% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 45.7% | 7.1% | 32.7% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 28.1% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 2017 | 42.4% | 17.1% | 21.7% | Road | 30.2% | 10.8% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 9.1% | -2.7% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 33.2% | 11.2% | 15.2% | 2017 | 27.5% | 5.1% | 14.3% | Home | 37.8% | 11.5% | 21.5% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 0.0% | 12.8% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.1% | 10.8% | 14.4% | 2017 | 42.5% | 12.5% | 26.1% | Home | 31.0% | 9.8% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 46.4% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.5% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 2017 | 25.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | Home | 27.1% | 9.1% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 6.7% | 3.2% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.1% | 7.0% | 16.7% | 2017 | 29.1% | 0.0% | 12.6% | Home | 31.2% | 5.6% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 0.0% | 23.4% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.7% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 2017 | 25.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | Road | 30.1% | 11.2% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 5.3% | -16.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 28.2% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 2017 | 28.1% | 10.3% | 12.4% | Home | 27.6% | 9.4% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 25.0% | 7.1% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.9% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 2017 | 33.3% | 14.3% | 16.6% | Road | 30.5% | 6.3% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 10.0% | 3.6% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 27.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 2017 | 36.1% | 7.9% | 27.7% | Home | 31.6% | 10.8% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.4% | 14.3% | 12.6% | 2017 | 28.0% | 10.7% | 6.5% | Home | 34.0% | 13.6% | 18.0% | L14 Days | 32.6% | 0.0% | 10.9% |
| Mat Latos | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.1% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 2017 | 31.4% | 6.3% | 17.1% | Road | 30.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 6.3% | 17.1% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 28.6% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 2017 | 34.8% | 21.4% | 10.9% | Road | 32.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 25.0% | 15.0% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 32.0% | 11.3% | 15.4% | 2017 | 40.2% | 17.1% | 26.8% | Road | 30.6% | 12.7% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 44.4% | 22.6% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 30.5% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 2017 | 35.1% | 19.4% | 20.2% | Road | 32.1% | 11.7% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 40.6% | 15.4% | 31.2% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 33.1% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 2017 | 30.7% | 38.1% | 9.7% | Home | 35.7% | 14.3% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 50.0% | 10.4% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 26.8% | 12.1% | 6.0% | 2017 | 31.2% | 19.0% | 11.7% | Home | 31.2% | 16.7% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 16.7% | 5.6% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 25.1% | 12.1% | 5.2% | 2017 | 30.3% | 11.1% | 10.6% | Home | 26.5% | 10.9% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 10.0% | 12.1% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.9% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 2017 | Road | 35.7% | 20.0% | 21.1% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.7% | 15.3% | 11.2% | 2017 | 34.9% | 9.7% | 20.4% | Road | 29.3% | 16.2% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 18.2% | 23.5% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 25.3% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 2017 | 26.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | Home | 25.8% | 6.1% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 18.2% | 5.8% |
| Trevor Cahill | Padres | L2 Years | 32.3% | 17.9% | 9.6% | 2017 | 37.7% | 14.3% | 16.4% | Home | 17.9% | 17.4% | -3.2% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 14.3% | 8.9% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.5% | 15.3% | 10.4% | 2017 | 29.5% | 30.4% | 9.5% | Road | 24.2% | 8.0% | -1.2% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 27.3% | 20.5% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.4% | 8.6% | -1.7% | 2017 | 13.5% | 6.7% | -11.5% | Road | 34.7% | 21.4% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 0.0% | -14.3% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.2% | 16.6% | 16.0% | 2017 | 37.0% | 18.8% | 19.7% | Road | 28.5% | 12.5% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 29.4% | 30.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Home | 39.3% | 7.4% | 21.1% | RH | 38.1% | 7.0% | 19.6% | L7Days | 38.9% | 10.5% | 21.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 32.1% | 14.6% | 11.1% | RH | 30.9% | 14.3% | 11.2% | L7Days | 27.1% | 6.5% | 8.4% |
| Giants | Road | 31.4% | 11.9% | 13.5% | LH | 26.1% | 10.6% | 4.8% | L7Days | 19.7% | 8.6% | -2.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 29.6% | 23.9% | 9.7% | RH | 33.4% | 21.8% | 13.0% | L7Days | 32.5% | 21.3% | 12.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 35.8% | 16.0% | 17.9% | LH | 34.0% | 12.0% | 18.9% | L7Days | 31.6% | 9.4% | 16.7% |
| Astros | Home | 28.0% | 14.6% | 7.1% | LH | 24.2% | 14.1% | 2.8% | L7Days | 27.6% | 9.8% | 4.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 49.2% | 11.0% | 34.2% | RH | 44.8% | 12.1% | 28.2% | L7Days | 46.0% | 8.3% | 27.7% |
| White Sox | Road | 24.9% | 12.0% | 8.6% | LH | 28.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | L7Days | 29.2% | 13.6% | 5.8% |
| Rays | Road | 31.7% | 14.0% | 8.2% | RH | 34.1% | 16.2% | 13.8% | L7Days | 30.8% | 11.8% | 3.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 37.1% | 10.3% | 17.7% | RH | 35.0% | 14.5% | 18.6% | L7Days | 32.1% | 12.3% | 15.7% |
| Angels | Road | 29.2% | 9.4% | 7.8% | LH | 29.1% | 4.4% | 15.2% | L7Days | 27.2% | 10.0% | 4.1% |
| Cubs | Home | 26.1% | 11.1% | 7.3% | RH | 28.8% | 9.5% | 12.1% | L7Days | 31.2% | 15.7% | 13.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 32.8% | 14.6% | 11.3% | LH | 30.6% | 14.3% | 5.9% | L7Days | 38.2% | 19.1% | 20.4% |
| Royals | Home | 30.5% | 10.3% | 9.3% | LH | 25.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% | L7Days | 36.9% | 13.6% | 17.0% |
| Indians | Road | 38.2% | 10.3% | 20.2% | RH | 34.9% | 13.7% | 17.8% | L7Days | 29.7% | 12.7% | 15.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.3% | 12.1% | 12.6% | RH | 30.7% | 11.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 29.9% | 10.8% | 11.3% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.0% | 20.3% | 8.0% | RH | 29.7% | 14.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 28.1% | 19.3% | 7.5% |
| Braves | Home | 30.9% | 15.1% | 14.0% | RH | 31.0% | 12.4% | 13.5% | L7Days | 33.2% | 17.0% | 14.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 37.5% | 15.3% | 25.9% | LH | 32.2% | 8.6% | 17.6% | L7Days | 36.3% | 13.6% | 25.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 30.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | RH | 30.0% | 11.7% | 11.9% | L7Days | 37.3% | 15.2% | 26.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.5% | 10.1% | 5.9% | RH | 34.0% | 15.4% | 15.3% | L7Days | 35.1% | 15.2% | 14.2% |
| Mets | Road | 34.5% | 16.8% | 15.6% | RH | 29.9% | 11.8% | 10.2% | L7Days | 34.9% | 13.3% | 11.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 29.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | RH | 28.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 31.7% | 13.1% | 13.1% |
| Twins | Home | 32.2% | 7.1% | 13.3% | RH | 34.0% | 11.3% | 18.2% | L7Days | 32.8% | 15.2% | 18.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.9% | 18.0% | 17.8% | RH | 30.7% | 14.9% | 15.3% | L7Days | 33.7% | 27.7% | 23.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 29.7% | 7.8% | 11.7% | RH | 35.3% | 14.8% | 20.0% | L7Days | 39.1% | 17.6% | 25.9% |
| Rockies | Road | 33.9% | 11.5% | 12.2% | RH | 31.7% | 12.8% | 10.6% | L7Days | 35.7% | 13.8% | 19.0% |
| Padres | Home | 26.6% | 14.1% | 4.1% | RH | 29.6% | 17.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 31.3% | 16.1% | 10.7% |
| Reds | Home | 29.5% | 13.8% | 8.0% | RH | 29.4% | 11.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 33.3% | 15.4% | 10.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 27.6% | 12.0% | 8.0% | RH | 29.6% | 13.4% | 10.3% | L7Days | 32.0% | 15.9% | 12.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | 18.2% | 8.3% | 2.19 | 18.2% | 8.3% | 2.19 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.96 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.96 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 23.8% | 10.5% | 2.27 | 23.8% | 10.5% | 2.27 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 29.8% | 12.7% | 2.35 | 29.8% | 12.7% | 2.35 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 37.4% | 17.0% | 2.20 | 37.4% | 17.0% | 2.20 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 11.5% | 7.5% | 1.53 | 11.5% | 7.5% | 1.53 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 26.2% | 11.3% | 2.32 | 26.2% | 11.3% | 2.32 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 18.6% | 13.0% | 1.43 | 18.6% | 13.0% | 1.43 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 20.9% | 8.6% | 2.43 | 20.9% | 8.6% | 2.43 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 21.1% | 8.4% | 2.51 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 2.51 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 31.5% | 14.7% | 2.14 | 31.5% | 14.7% | 2.14 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 9.6% | 8.1% | 1.19 | 9.6% | 8.1% | 1.19 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 20.8% | 8.5% | 2.45 | 20.8% | 8.5% | 2.45 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 23.3% | 8.3% | 2.81 | 23.3% | 8.3% | 2.81 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 23.8% | 8.2% | 2.90 | 23.8% | 8.2% | 2.90 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 17.3% | 12.3% | 1.41 | 17.3% | 12.3% | 1.41 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | 10.4% | 7.3% | 1.42 | 10.4% | 7.3% | 1.42 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 14.9% | 7.5% | 1.99 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 1.99 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 18.9% | 8.9% | 2.12 | 18.9% | 8.9% | 2.12 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 22.1% | 11.3% | 1.96 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 1.96 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 18.4% | 10.8% | 1.70 | 18.4% | 10.8% | 1.70 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 15.5% | 8.0% | 1.94 | 15.5% | 8.0% | 1.94 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 21.2% | 10.0% | 2.12 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 2.12 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | ||||||
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 26.4% | 11.5% | 2.30 | 26.4% | 11.5% | 2.30 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.19 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.19 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 29.1% | 14.1% | 2.06 | 29.1% | 14.1% | 2.06 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 17.2% | 8.5% | 2.02 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 2.02 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 20.2% | 7.1% | 2.85 | 20.2% | 7.1% | 2.85 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 17.7% | 6.4% | 2.77 | 17.7% | 6.4% | 2.77 |
Masahiro Tanaka has a 1.89 K/SwStr for his career now, so he may be a bit of an outlier, but we should still expect a pickup in pace here. Danny Duffy is the arm with perhaps greater potential here.
Current strikeout rates for Jose Quintana and Justin Verlander should be viewed with some caution, though both, or at least the latter, should have some capacity for improving their SwStr%, one would hope.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | 2.16 | 4.59 | 2.43 | 5.33 | 3.17 | 3.74 | 1.58 | 3.55 | 1.39 | 2.16 | 4.6 | 2.44 | 5.33 | 3.17 | 3.74 | 1.58 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 4.66 | 4.04 | -0.62 | 3.8 | -0.86 | 4.44 | -0.22 | 6.73 | 2.07 | 4.66 | 4.04 | -0.62 | 3.8 | -0.86 | 4.44 | -0.22 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2.29 | 3.64 | 1.35 | 3.57 | 1.28 | 2.97 | 0.68 | 3.04 | 0.75 | 2.29 | 3.65 | 1.36 | 3.57 | 1.28 | 2.97 | 0.68 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 4.71 | 3.45 | -1.26 | 3.31 | -1.4 | 3.79 | -0.92 | 1.56 | -3.15 | 4.71 | 3.46 | -1.25 | 3.31 | -1.4 | 3.79 | -0.92 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 1.19 | 2.07 | 0.88 | 2.09 | 0.9 | 1.16 | -0.03 | 1.04 | -0.15 | 1.19 | 2.07 | 0.88 | 2.09 | 0.9 | 1.16 | -0.03 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.03 | 5.36 | 2.33 | 5.2 | 2.17 | 5.16 | 2.13 | 4.61 | 1.58 | 3.03 | 5.36 | 2.33 | 5.2 | 2.17 | 5.16 | 2.13 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 4.19 | 3.63 | -0.56 | 3.61 | -0.58 | 4.19 | 0 | 4.37 | 0.18 | 4.19 | 3.64 | -0.55 | 3.61 | -0.58 | 4.19 | 0 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 2.81 | 4.66 | 1.85 | 4.86 | 2.05 | 3.65 | 0.84 | 3.54 | 0.73 | 2.81 | 4.66 | 1.85 | 4.86 | 2.05 | 3.65 | 0.84 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 4.44 | 4.76 | 0.32 | 4.49 | 0.05 | 4.46 | 0.02 | 4.24 | -0.20 | 4.44 | 4.77 | 0.33 | 4.49 | 0.05 | 4.46 | 0.02 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.77 | 4.19 | 3.42 | 4.1 | 3.33 | 3.14 | 2.37 | 1.96 | 1.19 | 0.77 | 4.19 | 3.42 | 4.1 | 3.33 | 3.14 | 2.37 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 1.39 | 2.69 | 1.3 | 2.76 | 1.37 | 1.17 | -0.22 | 1.89 | 0.50 | 1.39 | 2.69 | 1.3 | 2.76 | 1.37 | 1.17 | -0.22 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 1.8 | 5.36 | 3.56 | 5.28 | 3.48 | 3.65 | 1.85 | 4.18 | 2.38 | 1.8 | 5.36 | 3.56 | 5.28 | 3.48 | 3.65 | 1.85 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.68 | 3.84 | 0.16 | 3.91 | 0.23 | 3.6 | -0.08 | 4.46 | 0.78 | 3.68 | 3.84 | 0.16 | 3.91 | 0.23 | 3.6 | -0.08 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 5.22 | 4.28 | -0.94 | 4.49 | -0.73 | 4.73 | -0.49 | 6.71 | 1.49 | 5.22 | 4.29 | -0.93 | 4.49 | -0.73 | 4.73 | -0.49 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.6 | 4.23 | -0.37 | 4.45 | -0.15 | 3.64 | -0.96 | 2.36 | -2.24 | 4.6 | 4.24 | -0.36 | 4.45 | -0.15 | 3.64 | -0.96 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 4.2 | 4.27 | 0.07 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 4.05 | -0.15 | 2.37 | -1.83 | 4.2 | 4.27 | 0.07 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 4.05 | -0.15 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | 3.27 | 6.47 | 3.2 | 6.71 | 3.44 | 5.48 | 2.21 | 7.47 | 4.20 | 3.27 | 6.47 | 3.2 | 6.71 | 3.44 | 5.48 | 2.21 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 4.25 | 4.74 | 0.49 | 4.49 | 0.24 | 5.55 | 1.3 | 5.32 | 1.07 | 4.25 | 4.74 | 0.49 | 4.49 | 0.24 | 5.55 | 1.3 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 4.8 | 4.19 | -0.61 | 4.29 | -0.51 | 4.95 | 0.15 | 8.90 | 4.10 | 4.8 | 4.19 | -0.61 | 4.29 | -0.51 | 4.95 | 0.15 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.73 | 4.23 | -0.5 | 4.54 | -0.19 | 5.53 | 0.8 | 4.82 | 0.09 | 4.73 | 4.24 | -0.49 | 4.54 | -0.19 | 5.53 | 0.8 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 5.12 | 4.47 | -0.65 | 4.41 | -0.71 | 7.99 | 2.87 | 6.29 | 1.17 | 5.12 | 4.47 | -0.65 | 4.41 | -0.71 | 7.99 | 2.87 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 3.8 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 4.41 | 0.61 | 5.13 | 1.33 | 7.86 | 4.06 | 3.8 | 4.61 | 0.81 | 4.41 | 0.61 | 5.13 | 1.33 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 3.25 | 4.6 | 1.35 | 4.31 | 1.06 | 4.11 | 0.86 | 3.16 | -0.09 | 3.25 | 4.6 | 1.35 | 4.31 | 1.06 | 4.11 | 0.86 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | ||||||||||||||||
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 3.94 | 3.25 | -0.69 | 3.44 | -0.5 | 3.02 | -0.92 | 2.31 | -1.63 | 3.94 | 3.26 | -0.68 | 3.44 | -0.5 | 3.02 | -0.92 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 3.64 | 4.35 | 0.71 | 4.23 | 0.59 | 3.59 | -0.05 | 3.74 | 0.10 | 3.64 | 4.35 | 0.71 | 4.23 | 0.59 | 3.59 | -0.05 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 4.5 | 3.28 | -1.22 | 2.99 | -1.51 | 3.1 | -1.4 | 2.80 | -1.70 | 4.5 | 3.28 | -1.22 | 2.99 | -1.51 | 3.1 | -1.4 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 4.88 | 4.26 | -0.62 | 3.89 | -0.99 | 5.57 | 0.69 | 4.13 | -0.75 | 4.88 | 4.26 | -0.62 | 3.89 | -0.99 | 5.57 | 0.69 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 7.98 | 5.17 | -2.81 | 5.47 | -2.51 | 4.66 | -3.32 | 9.56 | 1.58 | 7.98 | 5.19 | -2.79 | 5.47 | -2.51 | 4.66 | -3.32 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 5.19 | 4.79 | -0.4 | 4.91 | -0.28 | 5.87 | 0.68 | 7.02 | 1.83 | 5.19 | 4.79 | -0.4 | 4.91 | -0.28 | 5.87 | 0.68 |
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | 0.294 | 0.190 | -0.104 | 35.0% | 0.25 | 37.5% | 96.7% | ||||
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.268 | 0.351 | 0.083 | 49.0% | 0.224 | 3.6% | 92.0% | 91 | 7.10% | 7.10% | 99 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.286 | 0.192 | -0.094 | 60.4% | 0.113 | 26.7% | 88.6% | 86.5 | 3.80% | 3.80% | 53 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.316 | 0.333 | 0.017 | 46.7% | 0.227 | 17.4% | 84.7% | 86.7 | 6.60% | 6.60% | 76 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.284 | 0.278 | -0.006 | 41.8% | 0.215 | 10.3% | 73.6% | 87.2 | 2.50% | 2.50% | 80 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.272 | 0.219 | -0.053 | 46.5% | 0.212 | 12.5% | 88.7% | 87.2 | 4.00% | 4.00% | 100 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.319 | 0.291 | -0.028 | 38.0% | 0.239 | 11.4% | 85.1% | 88.9 | 8.70% | 8.70% | 92 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.285 | 0.281 | -0.004 | 39.6% | 0.176 | 10.3% | 84.5% | 88.9 | 5.50% | 5.50% | 91 |
| Edinson Volquez | FLA | 0.271 | 0.343 | 0.072 | 40.8% | 0.254 | 4.2% | 86.1% | 88.4 | 8.20% | 8.20% | 73 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.265 | 0.129 | -0.136 | 41.2% | 0.165 | 16.7% | 90.8% | 82.5 | 2.30% | 2.30% | 86 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.304 | 0.266 | -0.038 | 38.5% | 0.218 | 12.9% | 76.0% | 84.5 | 2.50% | 2.50% | 79 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.272 | 0.196 | -0.076 | 32.3% | 0.208 | 13.3% | 84.1% | 85.8 | 5.10% | 5.10% | 99 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.284 | 0.349 | 0.065 | 55.7% | 0.114 | 0.0% | 86.9% | 88 | 3.40% | 3.40% | 89 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.261 | 0.304 | 0.043 | 38.6% | 0.193 | 11.4% | 91.4% | 88.8 | 7.10% | 7.10% | 84 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.312 | 0.313 | 0.001 | 31.3% | 0.229 | 2.6% | 86.8% | 88.9 | 9.60% | 9.60% | 83 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.280 | 0.278 | -0.002 | 55.4% | 0.141 | 14.3% | 88.1% | 88.3 | 8.60% | 8.60% | 93 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | 0.296 | 0.235 | -0.061 | 45.7% | 0.086 | 6.3% | 84.9% | 89.4 | 8.60% | 8.60% | 35 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.314 | 0.209 | -0.105 | 48.9% | 0.2 | 3.6% | 89.0% | 84.4 | 6.50% | 6.50% | 92 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.290 | 0.286 | -0.004 | 46.9% | 0.167 | 2.9% | 87.6% | 91.3 | 12.40% | 12.40% | 97 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.276 | 0.261 | -0.015 | 45.9% | 0.122 | 6.5% | 86.7% | 89.6 | 9.50% | 9.50% | 74 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.274 | 0.273 | -0.001 | 50.8% | 0.148 | 9.5% | 82.4% | 85.3 | 11.30% | 11.30% | 62 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.276 | 0.274 | -0.002 | 52.0% | 0.2 | 19.0% | 88.0% | 85.4 | 3.90% | 3.90% | 77 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 0.273 | 0.288 | 0.015 | 35.1% | 0.284 | 11.1% | 82.5% | 85.5 | 7.90% | 7.90% | 76 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.273 | ||||||||||
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.297 | 0.300 | 0.003 | 43.9% | 0.183 | 9.7% | 83.1% | 88.6 | 6.00% | 6.00% | 83 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.285 | 0.267 | -0.018 | 49.4% | 0.202 | 7.4% | 91.0% | 85.7 | 5.40% | 5.40% | 92 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 0.277 | 0.322 | 0.045 | 60.7% | 0.164 | 0.0% | 82.9% | 88.2 | 4.90% | 4.90% | 61 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.291 | 0.273 | -0.018 | 54.8% | 0.204 | 4.3% | 93.4% | 84.4 | 5.30% | 5.30% | 95 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 0.301 | 0.431 | 0.13 | 46.2% | 0.25 | 20.0% | 90.7% | 86 | 5.80% | 5.80% | 52 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.315 | 0.293 | -0.022 | 41.8% | 0.177 | 6.3% | 92.7% | 86.7 | 12.30% | 12.30% | 81 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Trevor Cahill is facing the Rockies at home, yet he is priced as if he’s facing them in Colorado. Judge him by runs allowed and there’s nothing to see here, but he’s been both one of the top ground ball and strikeout generators in the league. Give him an atrocious road offense in a great park and his $5K price tag might be one of the greater gifts DraftKings gives us this season, though I’d call him the top value play on FanDuel as well for $6.9K. Additional incentive is that the Rockies have just a 76 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers as well.
Value Tier Two
Alex Wood still costs less than $8K on either site. He was fairly dominant in his last start against this floundering offense. Weak ground balls and strikeouts are our favorite things and what he’s been fairly adept at generating so far this year. With perhaps tonight’s top matchup, the largest concern would be workload, but 77 pitches got him through six strong in San Francisco previously with an increase expected in this start.
James Paxton (2) has everything going for him aside from opponent strikeout rate. That’s admittedly a pretty big deal, but his strikeout rate has a few points to spare while still giving you plenty of value for just over $9K.
Value Tier Three
Chris Sale (1) has been flat out dominant. The strikes against him tonight are a difficult park and an extremely high price tag. He’s easily the top overall arm on the slate and nobody comes close to his strikeout potential tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Masahiro Tanaka started poorly, but has basically shown improvement in each start if you look at his game log. While the strikeouts haven’t been there, the SwStr% is a bit above his 11.8% career rate and the contact represents an improvement. A matchup with the Blue Jays is squarely in his favor at this point.
Carlos Martinez is a fairly high priced pitcher, who showed tremendous upside, but also some great flaws in April. The Brewers play to both that upside and those flaws. This should be interesting because it has the potential to go a number of different ways. While the Brew Crew have a 109 sOPS+ against power pitchers, the performance actually suffers 22% from their overall mark otherwise. If Braun is once again absent from the lineup, it may not be enough to bump him up as he’s generally dominated RHBs and struggled with LHBs anyway.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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