Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, May 9th
As promised yesterday, league average totals have been updated for the current season. I want to point out that these are league average totals for starting pitchers only as relievers are a different animal. There were some differences that were expecting and some that were expected that haven’t occurred. We’ll start with the latter and point out a few of the more interesting observations, perhaps going more into reasons why in future articles.
The HR rate has remained entirely stable from last season so far (13.3 HR/FB). This is not a surprise, but remember that last season was, by far, the highest HR rate in the Pitchf/x era (since HR/FB began being recorded in 2002).
There have been more fly balls, but the increase from last year for starting pitchers is just 0.6 percentage points on fly ball rate and the really surprising aspect for me is that it’s come entirely from line drives. Starting pitchers have the exact same 44.3 GB% they had last year. That, along with a 0.3 point increase in K%, means you’re essentially seeing the same amount of HRs.
ERA is down two-tenths of a run, which I was not aware of with estimators down about half that. The big change that has happened, which was expected is a ten point drop in BABIP. I do have in mind a couple of reasons that might be and it’s not just about shifts, though it does include better positioning. As the open is already long enough for a nearly full slate, I’ll reserve those comments for a future time.
We’re listing all 15 games today omitting the lone afternoon affair in the notes.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | -1.6 | 4.44 | 5.15 | 29.4% | 0.91 | 4.84 | 2.73 | SDG | 78 | 85 | 76 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -16.6 | 4.25 | 5.85 | 44.0% | 0.94 | 4.15 | 4.65 | MIA | 83 | 87 | 116 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | -0.9 | 5.09 | 4. | 41.3% | 0.93 | 5.69 | 4.99 | OAK | 114 | 101 | 113 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 5.5 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 36.2% | 0.96 | 5.62 | 3.57 | PHI | 109 | 99 | 87 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 5.1 | 4.32 | 5.86 | 42.7% | 0.94 | 4.71 | 5.48 | HOU | 123 | 125 | 144 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -10.8 | 3.09 | 6.22 | 49.3% | 1.03 | 2.97 | 3.2 | TOR | 73 | 78 | 92 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 7.3 | 4.31 | 5.8 | 47.6% | 1.02 | 4.69 | 4.39 | CIN | 100 | 114 | 144 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | -2.4 | 3.73 | 5.46 | 56.3% | 0.94 | 3.04 | 1.79 | ATL | 94 | 93 | 84 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 7.6 | 4.83 | 5. | 29.6% | 0.96 | 5.08 | 4.49 | TAM | 116 | 103 | 95 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 7 | 4.63 | 5.73 | 33.4% | 0.94 | 5.2 | 6.19 | STL | 103 | 107 | 115 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0 | 3.64 | 5.5 | 45.7% | 1.02 | 3.87 | 3.2 | MIL | 94 | 117 | 64 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 12.2 | 4.78 | 5.53 | 32.2% | 0.98 | 5.59 | 5.82 | CHW | 100 | 126 | 79 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -7.2 | 3.98 | 5.8 | 51.7% | 0.89 | 3.39 | 2.59 | LOS | 123 | 114 | 134 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 3.5 | 4.05 | 6.52 | 43.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 | 2.46 | NYM | 70 | 91 | 124 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 13 | 3.98 | 6.04 | 39.8% | 0.96 | 4.09 | 5.23 | SEA | 91 | 117 | 138 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 1.3 | 5.16 | 5.88 | 31.5% | 0.91 | 5.25 | 5.62 | TEX | 77 | 94 | 79 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | -6.5 | 4.39 | 5.65 | 37.0% | 0.93 | 5.04 | 3.6 | ANA | 74 | 88 | 94 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 2.2 | 3.82 | 6.48 | 43.9% | 1.39 | 3.59 | 3.54 | COL | 87 | 75 | 89 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | -3.4 | 4.2 | 4.71 | 42.1% | 0.89 | 3.93 | 6.96 | PIT | 80 | 91 | 77 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 6.6 | 3.69 | 6.62 | 33.4% | 1.13 | 3.96 | 4.94 | ARI | 118 | 98 | 65 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | -1.3 | 4.42 | 5.67 | 64.2% | 1.39 | 3.9 | 4.61 | CHC | 104 | 110 | 87 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 7.7 | 3.94 | 5.42 | 44.6% | 0.96 | 3.9 | 4.3 | KAN | 62 | 72 | 57 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -8.9 | 2.85 | 6.79 | 34.1% | 1.02 | 3.71 | 2.74 | BAL | 92 | 101 | 109 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | -3.1 | 4.15 | 5.04 | 48.7% | 1.03 | 4.32 | CLE | 91 | 117 | 64 | |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.5 | 4.97 | 5.28 | 0.503 | 0.98 | 4.95 | 6.27 | MIN | 104 | 118 | 131 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -8.1 | 3.74 | 5.54 | 0.446 | 1.13 | 3.48 | 2.43 | DET | 103 | 88 | 87 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 13.6 | 4.58 | 5.44 | 0.359 | 1.02 | 5.04 | 4.31 | NYY | 109 | 133 | 160 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -4.3 | 4.45 | 5.48 | 0.477 | 1.02 | 4.61 | 6.66 | WAS | 117 | 114 | 93 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -11.5 | 4.68 | 5.31 | 0.499 | 1.02 | 4.24 | 3.3 | BOS | 118 | 108 | 150 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | -4.7 | 3.89 | 5.22 | 0.507 | 0.91 | 3.97 | 4.73 | SFO | 74 | 68 | 67 |
Carlos Carrasco has gone at least 6.2 innings in four of six starts with five of his eight walks in one start, so his control has been excellent, while his strikeout rate remains on par. The ground ball rate is down, but so is the hard hit rate. We could look for more, but this is essentially the same quality pitcher he’s been the last several years. The Blue Jays remain a favorably below average opponent.
Charlie Morton has been playing earned run bingo. He’s had six starts and has allowed every number of ERs from zero to five. He’s also struck out 20 of his last 51 batters with a 13.0 SwStr% over his last two starts (A’s & Rangers). The ground ball rate is down, but still above average (48.9%) and he’s allowing harder contact (40%), but in the individual starts, he’s been above 47% on his hard contact three times, but below 30% in his other three. Regardless, the increased velocity and shift to missing bats over ground balls has made him a much better daily fantasy option. The Braves don’t strike out a lot, but don’t make enough contact to the point where you’d consider avoiding pitchers against them, especially since they’re an overall favorable matchup from a run prevention standpoint.
Drew Pomeranz hasn’t really had a poor start this season. He did allow five runs once, which accounts for the four ERA, but also struck out 10 of 20 batters in that game and hasn’t otherwise allowed more than two runs. The downside is that he hasn’t gone more than six innings once and a SwStr% decreased by two points does not support his improved strikeout rate, however, he’s been in double digits in each of his last two starts. His 39.6 GB% is a career low, leading to a 9.6% Barrels/BBE that’s a bit too high. This may all be a bit of an issue in Milwaukee (39 Hard%, 21.7 HR/FB at home, 37.6 Hard%, 22.4 HR/FB vs LHP), but there is quite a bit of upside here too (26.2 K% vs LHP, 19.7 K-BB% over the last seven days).
Jeff Samardzija has been missing bats at a quality rate all season, but has only begun preventing runs over his last two starts. He’s gone at least seven innings in three of his last four starts, striking out 11 Dodgers in his last one. Take out his Colorado and Arizona starts though and he hasn’t allowed a total of nine ERs over his other four starts. He’s in another favorable park against an up and down offense, whom it’s surprising to see has not struck out at a higher than average rate against RHP.
Matt Andriese struck out a season high eight Marlins in seven shutout innings last time out. While his ERA may be a bit deceiving, he now owns a double digit SwStr% and league average K% on the season. Although he’s kept the ball on the ground 49% of the time, hard contact (40.8%) has been the issue, leading to six HRs already, despite a low rate of actual barrels allowed. Although the contact issues could remain a problem, he does seem to have league average upside and probably more than that against the worst offense in baseball this season.
Max Scherzer doesn’t need much of an endorsement, but does seem to be going through one of those HR prone periods he often has for a month or two at a time. The Orioles are not performing up to par and lean mostly right-handed, while he has some pretty extreme splits, but does allow his HRs pretty evenly. The park will not play in his favor tonight either, but the enormous strikeout rate is generally unaffected by the HR issue.
Robbie Ray has struck out at least six in every start and eight or more in four, but continues to have massive hard contact issues (50.6 Hard%, 90 mph aEV), which you would think might be a disaster at home against a predominantly RH Detroit lineup. However, despite a 38.2 Hard% against LHP, the Tigers have generally been better against RHP in recent seasons (16.0 K-BB% vs LHP) and add just an 83 sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference) against power pitchers. That’s not to say that all of this doesn’t pose a potentially significant issue in a difficult park, just that it might be manageable with tremendous upside.
Zack Wheeler had major control issues, walking four Nationals in his last official start. That’s been the book on him throughout his career. He’d previous shown improved command of his secondary stuff, which could make him the star he was always supposed to be according to the prospect hype prior to Tommy John surgery. Before the rain washed away his last attempt, he did look better for three innings against Atlanta and does have a slightly above average 13.5 K-BB% for the season. Good Wheeler should be able give you a quality outing against one of the worst offenses in baseball this year. The Giants have just a 6.8 HR/FB vs RHP this year, while striking out more often than usual. We think they’re supposed to be better than this, but aside from Belt and Posey, where can we really expect that that offensive upside to come from?
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Ivan Nova (.266 – 73.9% – 6.1¬) is generates ground balls on about half his balls in play and has walked just one batter this season, while increasing his strikeout rate from below 5% in his first two starts to above 8% in his next two to above 10% in each of his last two. The issue with him is a cost above $8K against a quality offense against RHP. The Dodgers are also one of the top home offenses in baseball, which may not appear so due to Dodger Stadium being such a negative run environment. The Dodgers also have a 116 sOPS+ vs ground ball pitchers.
Kyle Freeland (.278 – 81.1% – 4.5)
Hector Santiago (.257 – 82.9% – 5.8) has just a career .267 BABIP. That’s never been the issue as a fairly extreme fly ball pitcher. He’s allowed 62 HRs over the past two seasons and is allowing contact just as hard this year with the highest aEV on the board and lots of Barrels. The White Sox have just a 16.1 K% vs LHP.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
John Lackey doesn’t miss by much at such a reduced price. The Rockies need the park enhancement just to appear competent. His ERA is inflated by the eight HRs allowed. Contact has been harder than average, but not much harder than last season and he’s even increased his ground ball rate by six points.
Justin Verlander has some red flags in his performance that wasn’t were not apparent last season. He’s become even more of an extreme fly ball pitcher (27.2 GB%), which, in itself is not a problem, but it might be in Arizona tonight. He’s also increased his hard hit rate by seven points, which makes him fairly lucky in his 5.9 HR/FB, as he allowed 30 last year. Over his last three starts, he’s walked 12 without a swinging strike rate exceeding 7%.
Jerad Eickhoff hasn’t allowed a HR in three starts, but hasn’t completed six innings with barely a 2.0 K/BB rate as well. A quality Seattle offense comes to town tonight.
Ariel Miranda is a tricky one. He’s generating more ground balls and strikeouts this season, but generally at home. He’s been terrible on the road since last season (7.3 K-BB%) and the strange thing is, even this year, his GB rate is 16.7 points less in his three road starts with five of his six HRs allowed on the road with six fewer innings. The Phillies actually lean more RH in the power department this year, after years of being predominantly LH and they’re really not that bad offensively. This is a bad spot for a HR prone lefty.
Jharel Cotton struck out more than four batters for just the second time this season last time out. He’s shown some positive signs, but has been very inconsistent and not missed bats at nearly the same elite rate he did in the minors, while walking too many. Pitchf/x surprisingly grades both his slider and well-regarded changeup as below average this year.
Julio Urias is still likely in line to be a future stud, but has walked four in each of his first two starts, while not striking out any more than that. He’s thrown fewer than 50% first pitch strikes with just an 8.2 SwStr% over his first two starts. The strength of the Pittsburgh offense is making pitchers throw strikes.
Dan Straily has started six games. In one in San Diego, he struck out 14 without a walk. Over the other five, he’s walked 17 and struck out 18.
Tim Adleman has a surprisingly, nearly elite SwStr% through just a few starts though and has already allowed five HRs. A low GB% with a 40% hard hit rate is not ideal in that park, especially with possibly the top offense in baseball visiting. I would rate the Yankees as a more difficult assignment in Cincinnati tonight than the Rockies are at home currently.
C.C. Sabathia is allowing harder contact this year and the Reds have been walloping LHP.
Mike Bolsinger is currently not even listed on either DraftKings or FanDuel.
Chris Young
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 22.0% | 8.6% | Road | 23.3% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 4.4% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.0% | Road | 18.8% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 7.3% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 22.7% | 15.7% | Road | 22.7% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 13.0% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.7% | 7.0% | Road | 16.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 6.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 15.9% | 4.0% | Road | 12.7% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 8.9% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.2% | 5.7% | Road | 28.0% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 2.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.3% | Road | 18.1% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 11.8% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 19.7% | 7.5% | Home | 27.2% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 39.2% | 3.9% |
| Chris Young | Royals | L2 Years | 18.7% | 9.5% | Road | 20.7% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 20.8% | 9.8% | Home | 20.6% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 26.5% | 9.1% | Road | 25.8% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 8.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 19.3% | 9.2% | Road | 17.1% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 14.6% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.3% | 4.9% | Road | 19.0% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 20.1% | 6.1% | Road | 21.0% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 1.9% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.4% | 5.8% | Home | 22.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 9.4% |
| Jered Weaver | Padres | L2 Years | 13.6% | 6.0% | Home | 14.8% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 6.1% | 4.1% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.7% | 7.3% | Home | 16.7% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 8.2% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.2% | 6.5% | Road | 24.8% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 2.0% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 23.4% | 10.3% | Home | 23.9% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 18.2% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.2% | 6.7% | Road | 25.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 10.7% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 13.8% | 9.7% | Home | 14.7% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 8.2% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 20.3% | 5.8% | Home | 21.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 10.9% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.4% | 5.4% | Road | 29.8% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 5.7% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.9% | 9.2% | Home | 19.4% | 8.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 10.8% | 7.2% | Home | 10.9% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 6.8% | 11.4% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 26.3% | 9.5% | Home | 26.3% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 37.3% | 7.8% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 17.9% | 6.4% | Home | 20.2% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 4.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.9% | 10.2% | Home | 20.0% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 22.9% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.5% | 8.5% | Home | 18.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 8.2% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 22.5% | 9.0% | Home | 25.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 18.2% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Home | 23.3% | 9.5% | RH | 25.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.8% | 11.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 22.1% | 7.6% | RH | 20.5% | 5.9% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.0% | 7.9% | RH | 24.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.2% | 9.2% | LH | 22.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.3% | 10.1% |
| Astros | Home | 17.7% | 7.7% | RH | 18.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 14.8% | 9.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 24.2% | 7.6% | RH | 22.8% | 7.5% | L7Days | 25.0% | 8.0% |
| Reds | Home | 21.4% | 8.1% | LH | 19.8% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.6% | 9.8% |
| Braves | Road | 20.1% | 6.8% | RH | 19.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.2% | 10.1% |
| Rays | Home | 24.9% | 9.8% | RH | 26.3% | 9.5% | L7Days | 28.4% | 12.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.3% | 7.8% | RH | 20.4% | 9.6% | L7Days | 21.4% | 10.2% |
| Brewers | Home | 27.6% | 9.5% | LH | 26.2% | 9.8% | L7Days | 24.1% | 6.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.3% | 8.2% | LH | 16.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.4% | 5.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.8% | 9.7% | RH | 20.6% | 9.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 12.0% |
| Mets | Home | 19.1% | 9.6% | RH | 19.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 12.7% | 10.6% |
| Mariners | Road | 21.2% | 8.7% | RH | 20.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.0% | 11.0% |
| Rangers | Road | 25.0% | 8.4% | RH | 23.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 29.9% | 8.9% |
| Angels | Road | 22.2% | 8.0% | RH | 21.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.7% | 7.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 19.9% | 6.5% | RH | 21.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.6% | 4.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.2% | 9.4% | LH | 22.9% | 11.7% | L7Days | 23.8% | 10.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.2% | 8.2% | RH | 24.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 28.7% | 10.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.3% | 10.1% | LH | 21.8% | 14.2% | L7Days | 19.9% | 11.4% |
| Royals | Road | 23.1% | 6.5% | RH | 20.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.4% |
| Orioles | Home | 18.2% | 8.0% | RH | 20.3% | 6.9% | L7Days | 19.1% | 6.7% |
| Indians | Road | 19.2% | 9.5% | RH | 21.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.4% | 8.8% |
| Twins | Road | 19.2% | 10.5% | RH | 21.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 23.7% | 9.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.3% | 10.4% | LH | 23.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 26.4% | 9.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.8% | 9.9% | RH | 21.0% | 10.2% | L7Days | 22.0% | 11.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.6% | 10.4% | RH | 20.0% | 10.2% | L7Days | 24.6% | 10.4% |
| Red Sox | Road | 15.7% | 9.5% | RH | 16.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 11.4% | 10.2% |
| Giants | Road | 21.3% | 7.8% | RH | 20.8% | 7.0% | L7Days | 24.1% | 8.8% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 39.2% | 16.5% | 20.8% | 2017 | 46.3% | 14.3% | 25.9% | Road | 39.0% | 15.0% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 14.3% | 20.0% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.6% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 2017 | 35.2% | 13.8% | 20.0% | Road | 33.0% | 18.3% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 18.2% | 13.9% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 33.3% | 11.6% | 14.2% | 2017 | 16.0% | 0.0% | -12.0% | Road | 31.8% | 5.3% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 0.0% | 6.7% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 34.3% | 14.3% | 16.2% | 2017 | 29.7% | 15.4% | 10.9% | Road | 31.5% | 14.8% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 6.7% | 17.2% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 33.3% | 11.2% | 16.1% | 2017 | 40.2% | 11.9% | 17.8% | Road | 37.6% | 11.6% | 23.2% | L14 Days | 48.6% | 18.2% | 37.2% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 30.8% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 2017 | 27.2% | 15.6% | 8.7% | Road | 32.2% | 11.5% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 15.4% | 29.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.2% | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2017 | 34.9% | 18.8% | 14.1% | Road | 25.9% | 10.3% | 1.8% | L14 Days | 42.4% | 33.3% | 27.2% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 31.8% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 2017 | 40.0% | 12.0% | 26.3% | Home | 31.9% | 14.3% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 40.7% | 28.6% | 37.0% |
| Chris Young | Royals | L2 Years | 36.4% | 13.5% | 18.7% | 2017 | 22.0% | 7.1% | 0.0% | Road | 41.8% | 27.1% | 26.7% | L14 Days | 5.3% | 0.0% | -10.5% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.3% | 12.0% | 16.1% | 2017 | 35.0% | 12.8% | 11.2% | Home | 33.4% | 9.0% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 11.1% | 12.9% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.4% | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2017 | 32.9% | 18.5% | 8.2% | Road | 30.1% | 10.3% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 20.0% | 6.3% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 35.6% | 10.8% | 19.3% | 2017 | 36.1% | 5.8% | 21.3% | Road | 35.5% | 8.6% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 6.3% | 24.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.1% | 14.1% | 15.0% | 2017 | 30.0% | 6.1% | 14.6% | Road | 34.9% | 15.4% | 20.5% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 0.0% | 14.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 29.5% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 2017 | 28.4% | 20.0% | 0.9% | Road | 29.7% | 15.7% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 7.7% | -15.1% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.5% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 2017 | 29.3% | 6.1% | 16.1% | Home | 28.9% | 13.7% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Jered Weaver | Padres | L2 Years | 32.6% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 2017 | 33.3% | 28.6% | 14.5% | Home | 33.2% | 13.8% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 38.6% | 33.3% | 29.5% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 2017 | 30.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | Home | 27.9% | 8.2% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 13.3% | 23.3% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.2% | 12.8% | 15.6% | 2017 | 35.8% | 21.6% | 21.1% | Road | 37.7% | 16.1% | 25.8% | L14 Days | 43.6% | 23.1% | 33.3% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2017 | 25.8% | 0.0% | 3.2% | Home | 35.0% | 0.0% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 0.0% | 3.2% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 27.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 2017 | 35.9% | 5.9% | 25.2% | Road | 27.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 0.0% | 13.5% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 2017 | 31.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | Home | 29.3% | 8.3% | -1.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 10.2% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 34.5% | 12.3% | 16.7% | 2017 | 40.8% | 18.2% | 24.3% | Home | 36.3% | 11.7% | 19.9% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 7.7% | 16.2% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.2% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 2017 | 20.2% | 10.0% | 0.0% | Road | 29.8% | 12.4% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 15.8% | 16.2% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 32.4% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 2017 | Home | 46.7% | 20.0% | 33.4% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.3% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 2017 | 30.2% | 5.6% | 1.9% | Home | 34.2% | 18.9% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 37.4% | 12.4% | 22.3% | 2017 | 50.6% | 15.4% | 40.0% | Home | 39.9% | 15.9% | 25.3% | L14 Days | 60.7% | 10.0% | 50.0% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 36.8% | 14.4% | 24.2% | 2017 | 41.9% | 16.7% | 33.8% | Home | 34.3% | 15.3% | 21.3% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 13.3% | 33.4% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.7% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2017 | 33.3% | 20.0% | 14.2% | Home | 32.3% | 16.3% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 25.0% | 14.3% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.0% | 15.6% | 15.4% | 2017 | 33.7% | 16.7% | 11.6% | Home | 38.0% | 20.7% | 21.9% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 33.3% | -3.2% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 28.0% | 13.6% | 5.3% | 2017 | 28.0% | 13.6% | 5.3% | Home | 37.8% | 15.8% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 0.0% | -14.3% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Home | 25.5% | 14.3% | 1.9% | RH | 28.8% | 17.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 23.8% | 14.6% | -1.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.1% | 14.9% | 10.0% | RH | 30.0% | 13.2% | 10.0% | L7Days | 31.8% | 13.8% | 12.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 33.9% | 16.4% | 20.8% | RH | 36.4% | 14.1% | 21.3% | L7Days | 42.0% | 12.6% | 31.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 28.8% | 12.8% | 5.7% | LH | 31.4% | 14.9% | 6.6% | L7Days | 28.1% | 8.3% | 5.5% |
| Astros | Home | 28.4% | 16.2% | 8.1% | RH | 31.3% | 12.9% | 12.3% | L7Days | 29.2% | 15.4% | 14.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 28.3% | 9.2% | 7.6% | RH | 30.7% | 12.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 31.9% | 20.5% | 12.0% |
| Reds | Home | 28.1% | 14.4% | 7.6% | LH | 28.3% | 21.3% | 6.3% | L7Days | 26.0% | 15.6% | 7.2% |
| Braves | Road | 30.6% | 13.6% | 11.9% | RH | 30.8% | 11.3% | 12.6% | L7Days | 31.5% | 7.7% | 12.6% |
| Rays | Home | 34.5% | 14.4% | 13.9% | RH | 33.2% | 14.8% | 12.9% | L7Days | 31.2% | 14.5% | 9.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 33.3% | 12.2% | 16.5% | RH | 29.3% | 13.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 27.2% | 10.1% | 6.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 39.0% | 21.7% | 19.6% | LH | 37.6% | 22.4% | 19.4% | L7Days | 27.1% | 14.0% | 13.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | LH | 29.1% | 9.1% | 12.6% | L7Days | 26.0% | 9.3% | 6.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.2% | 15.1% | 23.4% | RH | 33.3% | 14.7% | 17.4% | L7Days | 33.1% | 15.8% | 16.2% |
| Mets | Home | 32.1% | 7.9% | 11.8% | RH | 32.9% | 11.4% | 13.6% | L7Days | 44.4% | 7.0% | 26.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 28.8% | 11.1% | 11.1% | RH | 30.4% | 12.0% | 12.8% | L7Days | 30.2% | 10.7% | 13.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 27.3% | 13.5% | 6.4% | RH | 32.8% | 16.5% | 13.5% | L7Days | 28.7% | 19.4% | 7.4% |
| Angels | Road | 30.5% | 9.6% | 11.1% | RH | 28.5% | 12.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 30.0% | 12.7% | 14.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 31.0% | 19.7% | 11.9% | RH | 30.7% | 13.6% | 10.0% | L7Days | 29.3% | 20.9% | 11.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 29.9% | 9.3% | 10.6% | LH | 27.6% | 15.3% | 7.6% | L7Days | 29.8% | 7.7% | 9.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 37.7% | 16.8% | 24.0% | RH | 34.3% | 16.2% | 17.9% | L7Days | 25.4% | 22.9% | 3.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 30.3% | 12.0% | 11.2% | LH | 25.6% | 15.9% | 0.5% | L7Days | 25.4% | 11.1% | 6.9% |
| Royals | Road | 29.0% | 12.2% | 6.4% | RH | 30.9% | 10.9% | 10.1% | L7Days | 32.8% | 3.2% | 15.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 26.6% | 10.6% | 6.7% | RH | 30.1% | 13.1% | 10.2% | L7Days | 30.5% | 11.0% | 6.1% |
| Indians | Road | 36.4% | 9.1% | 17.6% | RH | 34.9% | 13.2% | 18.0% | L7Days | 32.5% | 5.9% | 11.7% |
| Twins | Road | 35.7% | 11.4% | 22.1% | RH | 35.5% | 15.2% | 20.0% | L7Days | 35.8% | 18.8% | 20.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 34.6% | 12.7% | 15.8% | LH | 38.2% | 13.2% | 20.0% | L7Days | 39.8% | 5.3% | 25.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 29.0% | 12.0% | 10.1% | RH | 30.0% | 18.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 29.4% | 26.0% | 11.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.7% | 15.4% | 14.1% | RH | 31.5% | 14.5% | 15.9% | L7Days | 35.8% | 11.8% | 20.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 36.4% | 10.7% | 17.3% | RH | 38.4% | 10.2% | 20.5% | L7Days | 38.4% | 17.4% | 21.0% |
| Giants | Road | 30.5% | 9.6% | 11.4% | RH | 26.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | L7Days | 28.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 27.7% | 10.1% | 2.74 | 28.8% | 11.1% | 2.59 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 20.7% | 7.9% | 2.62 | 19.4% | 7.2% | 2.69 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 17.5% | 4.9% | 3.57 | 17.5% | 4.9% | 3.57 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 20.9% | 8.2% | 2.55 | 21.6% | 7.9% | 2.73 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.65 | 14.3% | 5.7% | 2.51 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 25.8% | 11.4% | 2.26 | 24.8% | 10.8% | 2.30 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 16.9% | 10.7% | 1.58 | 18.0% | 10.9% | 1.65 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 26.2% | 10.5% | 2.50 | 28.2% | 10.2% | 2.76 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 13.2% | 9.9% | 1.33 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 1.49 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 24.6% | 10.6% | 2.32 | 28.3% | 11.2% | 2.53 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 29.3% | 9.2% | 3.18 | 29.3% | 9.2% | 3.18 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 17.0% | 9.0% | 1.89 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 2.09 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 17.0% | 7.5% | 2.27 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.12 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 28.6% | 11.5% | 2.49 | 27.2% | 11.0% | 2.47 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 21.7% | 8.5% | 2.55 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 2.51 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 11.4% | 8.0% | 1.43 | 12.1% | 9.2% | 1.32 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 19.1% | 9.8% | 1.95 | 19.2% | 10.3% | 1.86 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 23.2% | 9.4% | 2.47 | 22.5% | 8.9% | 2.53 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 11.4% | 8.2% | 1.39 | 11.4% | 8.2% | 1.39 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 22.6% | 7.6% | 2.97 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 2.98 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 13.8% | 5.7% | 2.42 | 11.6% | 5.3% | 2.19 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 20.6% | 10.1% | 2.04 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 2.08 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 32.3% | 15.4% | 2.10 | 33.1% | 15.7% | 2.11 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | ||||||
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 6.3% | 6.7% | 0.94 | 6.3% | 6.7% | 0.94 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 32.2% | 13.2% | 2.44 | 33.1% | 13.4% | 2.47 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 23.0% | 12.4% | 1.85 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 1.85 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 15.0% | 5.9% | 2.54 | 13.0% | 5.3% | 2.45 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 19.9% | 6.8% | 2.93 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 2.78 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 22.5% | 10.2% | 2.21 | 22.8% | 11.0% | 2.07 |
Drew Pomeranz and more significantly, Justin Verlander, would be the concerns here.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 3.54 | 3.34 | -0.2 | 3.9 | 0.36 | 4.18 | 0.64 | 5.65 | 2.11 | 2.12 | 3.09 | 0.97 | 3.53 | 1.41 | 2.82 | 0.7 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 6.3 | 3.91 | -2.39 | 3.6 | -2.7 | 3.73 | -2.57 | 6.86 | 0.56 | 6.84 | 3.91 | -2.93 | 3.56 | -3.28 | 4.12 | -2.72 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 9.39 | 5.48 | -3.91 | 5.38 | -4.01 | 4.3 | -5.09 | 7.29 | -2.10 | 9.39 | 5.5 | -3.89 | 5.38 | -4.01 | 4.3 | -5.09 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 3.55 | 3.88 | 0.33 | 4.02 | 0.47 | 4.42 | 0.87 | 4.91 | 1.36 | 3.54 | 3.62 | 0.08 | 3.58 | 0.04 | 3.61 | 0.07 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 6.27 | 4.57 | -1.7 | 4.62 | -1.65 | 4.48 | -1.79 | 7.62 | 1.35 | 7.33 | 4.77 | -2.56 | 4.64 | -2.69 | 4.66 | -2.67 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 2.18 | 3.21 | 1.03 | 3.05 | 0.87 | 3.34 | 1.16 | 1.66 | -0.52 | 2.02 | 3.28 | 1.26 | 3.09 | 1.07 | 3.25 | 1.23 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 5.45 | 4.81 | -0.64 | 4.64 | -0.81 | 5.39 | -0.06 | 7.08 | 1.63 | 6.43 | 4.74 | -1.69 | 4.62 | -1.81 | 5.75 | -0.68 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 3.97 | 3.23 | -0.74 | 3.16 | -0.81 | 3.09 | -0.88 | 3.32 | -0.65 | 4.18 | 2.92 | -1.26 | 2.73 | -1.45 | 2.71 | -1.47 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 4.22 | 4.57 | 0.35 | 5.27 | 1.05 | 4.31 | 0.09 | 8.36 | 4.14 | 4.66 | 4.51 | -0.15 | 5.16 | 0.5 | 4.45 | -0.21 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 4.65 | 4.46 | -0.19 | 4.76 | 0.11 | 4.77 | 0.12 | 3.67 | -0.98 | 3.58 | 4.05 | 0.47 | 4.34 | 0.76 | 4.3 | 0.72 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 4 | 3.19 | -0.81 | 3.14 | -0.86 | 3.89 | -0.11 | 2.93 | -1.07 | 4 | 3.19 | -0.81 | 3.14 | -0.86 | 3.89 | -0.11 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 2.78 | 4.74 | 1.96 | 5.19 | 2.41 | 3.87 | 1.09 | 5.67 | 2.89 | 2.93 | 4.77 | 1.84 | 5.19 | 2.26 | 3.98 | 1.05 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 2.14 | 3.47 | 1.33 | 3.16 | 1.02 | 2.47 | 0.33 | 4.26 | 2.12 | 2.5 | 3.37 | 0.87 | 3 | 0.5 | 2.53 | 0.03 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 5.03 | 3.04 | -1.99 | 2.91 | -2.12 | 3.63 | -1.4 | 2.84 | -2.19 | 4.24 | 3.14 | -1.1 | 3.01 | -1.23 | 2.94 | -1.3 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4 | 4.22 | 0.22 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 3.33 | -0.67 | 4.82 | 0.82 | 4.3 | 4.42 | 0.12 | 4.76 | 0.46 | 3.27 | -1.03 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 5.51 | 4.87 | -0.64 | 4.79 | -0.72 | 7.44 | 1.93 | 12.05 | 6.54 | 5.2 | 4.57 | -0.63 | 4.41 | -0.79 | 7.01 | 1.81 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 4.64 | 4.73 | 0.09 | 4.92 | 0.28 | 3.94 | -0.7 | 5.96 | 1.32 | 3.77 | 4.75 | 0.98 | 5.04 | 1.27 | 4.15 | 0.38 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 5.14 | 3.55 | -1.59 | 3.55 | -1.59 | 4.77 | -0.37 | 5.80 | 0.66 | 5.28 | 3.61 | -1.67 | 3.65 | -1.63 | 5.41 | 0.13 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 0.84 | 6.94 | 6.1 | 6.02 | 5.18 | 4.31 | 3.47 | 3.75 | 2.91 | 0.84 | 6.96 | 6.12 | 6.02 | 5.18 | 4.31 | 3.47 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.21 | 4.55 | 0.34 | 4.8 | 0.59 | 3.55 | -0.66 | 2.68 | -1.53 | 4.5 | 5.12 | 0.62 | 5.37 | 0.87 | 4.13 | -0.37 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 2.65 | 4.42 | 1.77 | 4.31 | 1.66 | 3.62 | 0.97 | 4.33 | 1.68 | 2.89 | 4.74 | 1.85 | 4.68 | 1.79 | 3.96 | 1.07 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 3.09 | 4.16 | 1.07 | 3.96 | 0.87 | 4.63 | 1.54 | 4.28 | 1.19 | 2.32 | 4.15 | 1.83 | 3.93 | 1.61 | 4.58 | 2.26 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.66 | 2.92 | 0.26 | 3.49 | 0.83 | 3.05 | 0.39 | 1.78 | -0.88 | 2.65 | 2.8 | 0.15 | 3.38 | 0.73 | 3.29 | 0.64 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | ||||||||||||||||
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 5.02 | 6.25 | 1.23 | 5.99 | 0.97 | 4.81 | -0.21 | 4.17 | -0.85 | 5.02 | 6.25 | 1.23 | 5.99 | 0.97 | 4.81 | -0.21 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.47 | 3.37 | -0.1 | 2.97 | -0.5 | 3.22 | -0.25 | 2.37 | -1.10 | 3.23 | 3.24 | 0.01 | 2.8 | -0.43 | 2.93 | -0.3 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 4.22 | 3.63 | -0.59 | 4.16 | -0.06 | 4.87 | 0.65 | 6.09 | 1.87 | 4.22 | 3.63 | -0.59 | 4.16 | -0.06 | 4.87 | 0.65 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6.58 | 5.79 | -0.79 | 5.6 | -0.98 | 6.69 | 0.11 | 9.18 | 2.60 | 5.82 | 6.33 | 0.51 | 5.99 | 0.17 | 6.55 | 0.73 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 4.88 | 4.46 | -0.42 | 4.52 | -0.36 | 5.1 | 0.22 | 6.48 | 1.60 | 5.81 | 4.74 | -1.07 | 4.95 | -0.86 | 5.77 | -0.04 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 4.78 | 3.89 | -0.89 | 3.74 | -1.04 | 3.83 | -0.95 | 5.59 | 0.81 | 3.63 | 3.95 | 0.32 | 3.72 | 0.09 | 3.62 | -0.01 |
Carlos Carrasco has an unsustainably low BABIP and high LOB% (89.3).
Jeff Samardzija has a 60.6 LOB% and 20.0 HR/FB. Four of his six HRs have come in two starts in Arizona and Colorado.
Matt Andriese won’t likely sustain an 84.7 LOB%. How he’s pulled that off with so many HRs is the bigger surprise.
Zack Wheeler seems to only have a strand rate issue (63.8%). Contact has been a strong suit (50.7 GB%, 5.3 Hard-Soft%).
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 0.281 | 0.220 | -0.061 | 31.5% | 0.167 | 25.0% | 82.7% | 88.1 | 11.10% | 7.20% | 54 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.306 | 0.446 | 0.14 | 44.1% | 0.275 | 3.4% | 90.9% | 86.2 | 5.70% | 4.10% | 105 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 0.284 | 0.400 | 0.116 | 60.0% | 0.2 | 40.0% | 100.0% | 83.8 | 4.00% | 2.50% | 25 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.296 | 0.274 | -0.022 | 44.9% | 0.153 | 12.8% | 86.5% | 87.1 | 6.90% | 5.00% | 101 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 0.290 | 0.324 | 0.034 | 37.5% | 0.221 | 11.9% | 90.5% | 88.4 | 7.50% | 5.70% | 107 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.309 | 0.214 | -0.095 | 44.6% | 0.238 | 9.4% | 89.9% | 85.9 | 9.70% | 6.60% | 103 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.278 | 0.290 | 0.012 | 44.6% | 0.238 | 6.3% | 83.3% | 86.6 | 7.50% | 5.40% | 106 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 0.273 | 0.344 | 0.071 | 48.9% | 0.245 | 0.0% | 82.9% | 87.5 | 5.30% | 3.40% | 95 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 0.283 | 0.325 | 0.042 | 46.3% | 0.195 | 14.3% | 91.2% | 84.7 | 4.90% | 3.80% | 41 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 0.267 | 0.200 | -0.067 | 37.2% | 0.128 | 23.1% | 86.9% | 86.8 | 8.80% | 5.40% | 80 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.292 | 0.294 | 0.002 | 39.7% | 0.233 | 11.1% | 88.7% | 88.9 | 9.60% | 6.00% | 73 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 0.279 | 0.257 | -0.022 | 35.5% | 0.159 | 9.6% | 85.3% | 90.7 | 10.20% | 7.50% | 108 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.300 | 0.266 | -0.034 | 50.4% | 0.232 | 9.1% | 92.8% | 87.5 | 5.40% | 4.40% | 130 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.307 | 0.302 | -0.005 | 41.0% | 0.29 | 6.7% | 81.7% | 86.1 | 7.80% | 5.00% | 102 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.276 | 0.282 | 0.006 | 37.5% | 0.154 | 4.1% | 87.5% | 88.2 | 5.70% | 3.90% | 106 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 0.286 | 0.219 | -0.067 | 43.1% | 0.207 | 9.5% | 88.7% | 88 | 12.80% | 10.70% | 117 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 0.276 | 0.310 | 0.034 | 36.4% | 0.202 | 16.3% | 83.2% | 86.2 | 2.00% | 1.40% | 101 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.289 | 0.317 | 0.028 | 47.2% | 0.179 | 5.4% | 87.5% | 88.1 | 9.20% | 6.50% | 109 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 0.295 | 0.258 | -0.037 | 31.0% | 0.31 | 9.1% | 82.9% | 81.1 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 31 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.304 | 0.290 | -0.014 | 27.2% | 0.233 | 5.9% | 87.9% | 89 | 9.70% | 6.50% | 103 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.279 | 0.278 | -0.001 | 64.2% | 0.151 | 22.7% | 92.7% | 83.8 | 2.80% | 2.10% | 109 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.274 | 0.268 | -0.006 | 49.0% | 0.186 | 9.1% | 85.4% | 88.2 | 6.80% | 4.80% | 103 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.285 | 0.236 | -0.049 | 32.6% | 0.13 | 8.0% | 80.5% | 86.7 | 5.30% | 3.20% | 94 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | 0.300 | ||||||||||
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.268 | 0.269 | 0.001 | 38.5% | 0.269 | 11.1% | 85.7% | 87.1 | 3.80% | 3.10% | 53 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.304 | 0.296 | -0.008 | 45.1% | 0.232 | 11.5% | 81.9% | 90 | 8.20% | 4.60% | 85 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.266 | 0.263 | -0.003 | 34.4% | 0.164 | 3.3% | 80.8% | 89.5 | 8.20% | 5.70% | 61 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.292 | 0.256 | -0.036 | 43.9% | 0.195 | 13.3% | 89.0% | 87.3 | 6.00% | 4.20% | 84 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.316 | 0.303 | -0.013 | 43.0% | 0.183 | 5.6% | 92.6% | 86.3 | 11.60% | 8.10% | 95 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 0.319 | 0.278 | -0.041 | 50.7% | 0.2 | 4.5% | 85.4% | 88 | 8.00% | 5.40% | 75 |
Charlie Morton has a high rate of hard contact that’s showing up in his line drive rate plus he hasn’t generated a single popup. I’d expect some improvement, which should bring his ERA closer to his estimators.
Max Scherzer used to be a high BABIP guy, but his profile is generally so strong now that he’s been able to support a sub-.270 BABIP in three of the the previous four seasons. Now, with league wide BABIP down, I wouldn’t put up much of an argument against something in the .250 range.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Charlie Morton (3) is allowing some frustratingly hard contact, but is the only pitcher costing less than $8K with a strikeout rate above 25% on today’s slate. He’s also in a quality run prevention spot at home against the Braves.
Value Tier Two
Carlos Carrasco (1t) is pretty much who he’s been the last few years. He’s the second highest priced pitcher on the board, but should have some upside beyond that in a nice spot against the struggling and predominantly right-handed Blue Jays. He doesn’t have extreme splits, but has held RHBs to a wOBA below .300 in his career. Additionally, Toronto has a 90 sOPS+ vs power pitchers.
Value Tier Three
Drew Pomeranz (5t) is in a dangerous spot and probably can’t continue to support his current strikeout rate. The good news is that the SwStr% has increased over his last two starts and the Brewers provide an opponent that could allow him to continue to generate strikeouts at an elite rate tonight.
Jeff Samardzija (4) has his highest strikeout rate and second highest SwStr% since being converted into a starter. He’s in a decent spot, transitioning from one pitcher’s park to another at a reasonable cost. However, the Mets have been swinging the bats better and not striking out at all (12.7 K% over the last week).
Max Scherzer (1t) finds himself nearly a tier four guy for a couple of reasons, none of which have to do with any decreased ability to strike out batters. He’s in one of his HR prone phases (five over his last three starts) and in a potentially tough spot for that particular flaw in Baltimore at easily the highest price on the board. The other thing is that the pitchers ahead of him just project better for point per dollar potential through no fault of his own. While not as strong as last night on a PP$ basis, this is still a quality group listed here.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Matt Andriese allows too much hard contact, but misses bats at a league average rate and that should play in a great spot against the Royals at a cost below $8K.
Robbie Ray (5t) is a dangerous arm tonight, at home against the Tigers, but the upside is so tremendous with enough of a reason to think he may be able to manage the situation and you don’t often see strikeout rates above 30% for less than $10K.
Zack Wheeler is keeping the ball on the ground and missing bats at an above average rate, while managing contact sufficiently. The issue has always been with lapses in command, which have been less often present this year. He’s in a nice spot at home against a below average offense for less than $8K.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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