Advanced Stats – Pitching: Wednesday, August 23rd
Only two afternoon games gives us a 13 game night slate that’s a bit large for a Wednesday. We’re at a point in the season where most team stats are pretty well set and won’t tend to budge much from day to day or even week to week anymore (with the exception being rolling weekly stats of course). Sometimes these numbers are even reflective of a somewhat different team when you consider injuries, trades and role changes that occur throughout the season. The numbers are what they are and what we have at our disposal at this point, however, we should also consider using the PlateIQ tool, which shows the wOBA and ISO (among other things) for each projected and then confirmed lineup throughout the day. I happen to like wRC+ more than wOBA, but it’s still certainly a better measure than what we have here sometimes, key case in point an Arizona lineup last night that was much better against LHP than their season team totals would suggest.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.8 | 4.96 | 5.37 | 47.7% | 0.91 | 5.19 | 5.78 | ANA | 101 | 98 | 130 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 4.1 | 4.33 | 5.32 | 35.3% | 0.91 | 2.76 | 3.84 | TEX | 81 | 86 | 142 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | -3 | 4.55 | 5.67 | 48.3% | 1.06 | 3.94 | 3.4 | KAN | 90 | 92 | 102 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 6.2 | 3.79 | 4.46 | 27.5% | 1.02 | 4.05 | 3.68 | CHC | 95 | 96 | 133 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 2.1 | 4.28 | 5.52 | 47.9% | 0.96 | 4.48 | 4.91 | TOR | 91 | 90 | 71 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 1.7 | 6.47 | 4.4 | 39.7% | 0.91 | 7.01 | 6.42 | ARI | 80 | 97 | 73 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 1.1 | 3.14 | 6.7 | 44.6% | 1.09 | 3.02 | 2.97 | BOS | 93 | 92 | 108 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 5.3 | 3.87 | 5.56 | 44.6% | 1.09 | 3.97 | 4.32 | CLE | 102 | 101 | 88 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -6 | 4.45 | 5.73 | 33.9% | 1.02 | 4.81 | 3.24 | OAK | 88 | 104 | 107 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 2 | 5.04 | 5.79 | 39.1% | 0.94 | 5.22 | 4.5 | HOU | 121 | 126 | 86 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 7 | 4.05 | 5.33 | 48.8% | 1 | 4.46 | 5.65 | ATL | 90 | 88 | 130 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -0.3 | 4.38 | 6.29 | 41.9% | 0.98 | 4.5 | 4.49 | CHW | 91 | 87 | 104 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 3 | 4.26 | 5.69 | 35.1% | 1.06 | 5 | 4.77 | COL | 78 | 81 | 118 |
| James Shields | CHW | -0.1 | 5.04 | 5.54 | 39.8% | 0.98 | 5.19 | 3.47 | MIN | 93 | 101 | 155 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -3.9 | 4.47 | 5.51 | 49.4% | 0.98 | 4.44 | 6.02 | STL | 104 | 100 | 127 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 1 | 4.77 | 5.68 | 38.5% | 0.98 | 5.3 | 6 | NYY | 100 | 111 | 115 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 1.8 | 5.35 | 5.4 | 45.5% | 0.96 | 4.56 | 6.21 | PHI | 96 | 81 | 92 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.9 | 3.65 | 5.65 | 49.7% | 0.98 | 3.37 | 3.93 | DET | 112 | 94 | 116 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | -0.3 | 3.74 | 4.7 | 36.4% | 0.98 | 3.48 | 8.52 | SDG | 81 | 87 | 61 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -0.7 | 3.68 | 6.4 | 61.3% | 0.96 | 3.5 | 3.42 | TAM | 101 | 103 | 101 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 0.8 | 4.42 | 5.28 | 47.0% | 0.96 | 4.05 | 4.54 | MIA | 100 | 97 | 113 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -2 | 4.97 | 5.25 | 47.9% | 0.93 | 4.81 | 6.57 | SFO | 83 | 84 | 111 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | -4.1 | 4.51 | 5.89 | 38.2% | 0.93 | 4.57 | 4.23 | MIL | 95 | 91 | 108 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | -4.6 | 4.29 | 5.57 | 41.4% | 0.94 | 3.99 | 5.42 | WAS | 95 | 103 | 48 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 4 | 4.07 | 4.82 | 0.573 | 1.02 | 4.14 | 5.46 | CIN | 101 | 94 | 140 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | -1 | 4.81 | 6.05 | 0.447 | 1 | 4.78 | 3.81 | SEA | 93 | 103 | 117 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 3.4 | 3.44 | 5.55 | 0.426 | 0.97 | 3.38 | 4.14 | PIT | 94 | 93 | 122 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -9.8 | 4.22 | 5.64 | 0.437 | 1.02 | 4.21 | 6.44 | BAL | 103 | 98 | 109 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | -1.6 | 4.57 | 5.35 | 0.486 | 0.97 | 4.5 | 5.03 | LOS | 101 | 107 | 93 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -5.2 | 3.9 | 5.71 | 0.531 | 0.91 | 3.2 | 3.58 | NYM | 89 | 100 | 78 |
NOTE – It looks like the A’s have moved from Sean Manaea to Daniel Gossett at some point overnight for this afternoon.
Asher Wojciechowski has a top five strikeout rate tonight (24.8%) and a 20.6 K-BB%, though 50 innings, a little over half of them coming while starting. He also has a massive fly ball rate (53.5%) and has allowed a HR every 17.8 batters, including five over his last 11.1 innings. The Cubs have power, but will strike out too. They’ve been below average for the season, but hot this year, so we won’t call this a favorable spot.
Corey Kluber left his last game early due to an ankle injury, but is said to be good to go with no restriction tonight. That’s good enough for me on this slate. His 35.1% strikeout rate leads the slate by a touchdown and his 16.3 SwStr% is a two point conversion better than anyone else. (If you don’t speak in football terms this time of year, nobody pays attention to you.) He failed to strike out at least eight for the first time since early May last time out, another game he left with an injury. If you remove those two starts, he’s struck out at least eight in 17 straight non-injured starts. The Red Sox strike out a bit less than average, but with little power (11.2 HR/FB vs RHP, 3.1 Hard-Soft% last seven days).
Drew Pomeranz also left his last start early due to a back issue the same day as Kluber. He’s also been pronounced fit to return, though back issues seem a bit trickier and we might want to be more cautious here. He’s been good, taking a 15.8 K-BB% as far as it will go in Fenway. He’s in Cleveland tonight, which is actually one of the worst spots on the board, which says more about a slate with few dangerous environments than it says about the difficulty presented here. The Tribe does have just a 7.5 K-BB% vs LHP.
Luis Severino bounced back from his worst start of the season to strike out nine of 27 Mets in 6.1 shutout innings. His 21.7 K-BB% is seventh best in the majors with nobody above him having a higher ground ball rate than his 50.8%. Just five of his 15 HRs have come on the road where he has a hard hit rate five points lower (26.2%) than at home (31.5%), which is ironically also his split against RH and LH batters. He’ll face a lot of those RHBs tonight in Detroit, though there’s not much of a split with his peripherals. The Tigers are another team I’d use confirmed lineup PlateIQ numbers for, considering the firepower they’ve traded away. They continue to hit the ball hard though (26.2 Hard-Soft%). Considering they allow a lot of hard contact too, I wonder if there’s a park calibration issue. Detroit is also a top offense against ground ball pitchers (115 sOPS+) and while they’ve traded away two of the top three bats against ground ballers, there are still a lot of above average ones available to them.
Luke Weaver has struck out 13 of 48 batters in two starts for the Cardinals, but allowed a HR in each. He allowed seven of those bad boys in 36.1 innings last year too, which led to his downfall despite a 19.8 K-BB%. He continued the great peripherals without the contact issues in AAA this season and to his credit, he has just an 85.5 mph aEV and 25 Hard% in his 16.1 innings this year. He also has a 38.6% 95+ mph EV, which leads one to believe it’s either all or nothing with him. What you have here though, is someone with some strikeout upside in potentially the top spot on the board, hosting the Padres (25 K% on the road and vs RHP, 28.9 K% over the last week).
Marcus Stroman leads all qualified pitchers in ground ball rate (62.6%) by nearly a full four points. He does so with a league average strikeout rate and while a five start stretch without a hard hit rate above 30% in July drew additional encouragement, he’s been above 30% in four of his last five starts and that’s been his largest issue. Ground balls will never leave the yard, but hit hard enough, they will cause problem, which, in his case, has been a BABIP consistently above .300. Tampa Bay is not an overall great spot because they do have some power (16.8 HR/FB vs RHP), but they offer great strikeout upside (25% at home and vs RHP). He has allowed just one HR over his last 10 starts, but still has a 15.1 HR/FB on the season.
R.A. Dickey allowed three HRs in his last start, the seventh time he’s allowed multiple HRs this year, but struck out a season high nine and has just a 26.1 Hard% for the season with his highest ground ball rate (49.2%) since 2011. His 28% 95+ mph EV is second best on the board. He also has a 15.3 K-BB% and 10.7 SwStr% over his last 13 starts. Seattle is a fairly neutral matchup here, but they lose their DH again. They have just a 16.5 K% over the last week, but only a 7.6 HR/FB too.
Rich Hill has allowed six of his 13 HRs this year over his last four starts over which he has a 42.9 Hard% and just a 35.2 GB% with his walk rate hitting 10%. The good news is that he’s lost nothing off his third best strikeout rate on the board (28.4%) over this span and even increased his SwStr rate (12.7%). The good news is his 84.2 mph aEV is still second lowest on the board and while Pittsburgh is a great park for LH pitchers with HR issues. The Pirates have just a 10.4 HR/FB there with a predominantly RH lineup and a 91 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers. While the Pirates don’t strike out much, their 19.8% against LHP is nearly league average.
Zack Godley has been turning his elite SwStr rate (14.2%) into strikeouts more often lately (27.6 K% over the last month), while maintaining his 54.9 GB%. Well, not really. His ground ball rate has been below 40% in four of his last seven starts, as he seems to have sacrificed some of those for strikeouts. While a dangerous proposition in Arizona, it’s one daily fantasy players will certainly accept, especially considering that his 29% hard hit rate for the season hasn’t budged. Even better, he gets an incredible park transition tonight to one of the most negative run environments in baseball at Citi Field.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Ervin Santana (.237 – 80.5% – 13.2) has a league average strikeout and swinging strike rate (even better over the last month) with an 85.7 mph aEV. He’s not a terrible pitcher in a decent spot against what appears to be a below average offense. However, he has allowed 24 HRs over his last 20 starts and use PlateIQ to take a look at the actual lineup when confirmed. The White Sox actually have a potent top half of the order now most nights. This matchup may be tougher than the numbers make it appear.
Edwin Jackson (.276 – 76% – 15.3) has a 30.4% unearned run rate. That said, he has a double digit SwStr% and just 30.9% 95+ mph EV despite 8.8% Barrels/BBE. He’s also in Houston. It’s the worst spot on the board even with their recent struggles.
Andrew Cashner (.274 – 77.1% – 8.3) has the second lowest barrels rate on the board, but just a 2.6 K-BB%. Who knows how he’s doing it? Contact authority seems a bit better than average with a 50% ground ball rate, but there’s still something untrustworthy going on here.
Justin Nicolino (.330 – 74.5 – 16.7) has a 26.3% unearned run rate through seven starts. He does not allow a ton of hard contact, but just so much of it (5.5 SwStr%).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Austin Pruitt is in a pretty strong spot at a low price. The Blue Jays have been a below average offense and have a 26.5 K% over the last week. He’s been a bit below average in a starting role, but has been able to keep the ball in the yard more often than expected. The 9.4 HR/FB is counterbalanced by a .350 BABIP and 62.1 LOB%. I can see him in an SP2 role on DraftKings, but would prefer the upside of Wojciechowski in GPPs for a bit less.
Andrew Heaney generated 12 swinging strikes in 82 pitches in his season debut. He also generated a bomb every 20.5 pitches.
Erasmo Ramirez has a 22.0 Hard-Soft% and 14.5 K% in four starts for the Mariners, but he does have a 10.1 SwStr% and a reasonable matchup with a low powered offense in Atlanta (11.3 HR/FB vs RHP) at a low cost. Probably not low enough though.
Mark Leiter struck out 16 of 34 batters over 9.1 innings of long relief outings in the two outings most recent before his last start. He then generated just two swings and misses with one strikeout in five innings against the Padres (26 batters faced).
Mike Fiers has a 21.0 HR/FB, but 81.2 LOB%. He’s now allowed 30 HRs on the season, 12 over his last eight starts, and multiple bombs in four straight.
Antonio Senzatela has been spot starting recently and hasn’t gone more than five innings in over two months.
Ian Kennedy is in a pretty strong spot against the Rockies (16.8 K-BB%, 7.6 Hard-Soft% on the road), but allows the hardest contact on the board (89.5 mph aEV, 10.7% Barrels/BBE) and has been missing bats at a well below average rate over the last month.
Mike Montgomery has not started since mid-July, but did throw 61 pitches in his last relief outing. That still likely puts him in line for only around 75 to 80 and he could run through that rather quickly with his double digit walk rate. His 3.2% Barrels/BBE is lowest on the board.
Trevor Williams has been a weak contact generator (28.7% 95+ mph EV), but that’s unlikely to be enough against the Dodgers.
Jhoulys Chacin has allowed the lowest rate of batted balls above a 95 mph exit velocity on today’s board (27.8%), but that’s about all there is to see here.
James Shields has a league average SwStr%, but 19 HRs in 14 starts.
Jordan Zimmermann has allowed 26 HRs, but just four over his last seven starts despite allowing 14 runs over his last 8.2 innings. In those seven starts since the break, he has a 30.6 GB% with a hard hit rate above 40% in five of them.
Chris Flexen has a -1.9 K-BB%, but his 83.3 mph aEV through five starts is the lowest mark on the board.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 16.9% | 10.2% | Road | 14.8% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 9.4% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Years | 19.7% | 7.7% | Home | 28.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 0.0% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.5% | 8.1% | Road | 23.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 8.8% |
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 24.8% | 4.2% | Home | 28.8% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 0.0% |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | L2 Years | 16.9% | 5.4% | Home | 15.8% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 12.4% | 4.9% |
| Chris Flexen | Mets | L2 Years | 13.2% | 15.1% | Home | 10.4% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 15.3% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 29.8% | 6.3% | Home | 31.4% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 3.9% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.5% | 8.7% | Road | 24.4% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 6.8% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.1% | 8.1% | Home | 19.7% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 10.7% |
| Edwin Jackson | Nationals | L2 Years | 16.5% | 9.7% | Road | 15.5% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 5.6% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | L2 Years | 18.1% | 5.7% | Road | 15.7% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 6.8% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.6% | Road | 20.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 9.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 22.9% | 8.5% | Home | 21.8% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 7.3% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 17.8% | 10.5% | Home | 18.4% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 8.3% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 19.2% | 9.0% | Road | 18.2% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 17.4% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 16.2% | 6.3% | Home | 14.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 6.4% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 10.1% | 6.6% | Road | 12.2% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 6.5% | 8.7% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 25.0% | 7.5% | Road | 26.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 9.8% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Years | 26.1% | 8.1% | Home | 26.1% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 28.6% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.5% | 6.8% | Road | 20.1% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 6.9% |
| Mark Leiter | Phillies | L2 Years | 20.5% | 9.8% | Home | 23.5% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 6.7% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.3% | 8.6% | Road | 14.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 12.9% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 20.3% | 8.4% | Home | 20.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 7.6% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.7% | 7.4% | Home | 21.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 14.0% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 20.3% | 10.1% | Road | 20.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 10.8% | 10.8% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 16.5% | 8.0% | Home | 17.2% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 5.5% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.5% | 8.3% | Road | 31.4% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 12.5% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.0% | 7.1% | Road | 20.3% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.5% | 7.6% | Home | 17.5% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 13.3% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.7% | 8.3% | Road | 24.3% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 29.1% | 8.9% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Home | 18.2% | 8.0% | RH | 19.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 15.3% | 12.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.3% | 8.0% | LH | 25.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.2% | 13.5% |
| Royals | Home | 19.0% | 6.7% | RH | 20.2% | 6.6% | L7Days | 18.2% | 7.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.3% | 9.6% | RH | 22.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 24.0% | 11.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.4% | 9.4% | RH | 20.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 26.5% | 7.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.1% | 8.5% | RH | 23.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.8% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.1% | 8.8% | RH | 19.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.2% | 11.2% |
| Indians | Home | 19.2% | 10.0% | LH | 17.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 19.8% | 7.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 24.7% | 9.2% | RH | 24.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.9% | 8.5% |
| Astros | Home | 16.7% | 7.8% | RH | 17.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 16.1% | 6.6% |
| Braves | Home | 19.3% | 7.1% | RH | 19.5% | 7.0% | L7Days | 17.1% | 8.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.3% | 7.3% | RH | 22.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 17.4% | 8.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.4% | 7.6% | RH | 22.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 18.4% | 13.5% |
| Twins | Road | 21.6% | 9.2% | RH | 22.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 22.5% | 10.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.5% | 9.8% | RH | 21.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 24.3% | 7.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.3% | 9.1% | RH | 22.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.2% | 9.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.8% | 8.4% | LH | 20.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.7% | 6.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.7% | 8.8% | RH | 22.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.5% |
| Padres | Road | 25.8% | 7.2% | RH | 25.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 28.9% | 7.1% |
| Rays | Home | 25.7% | 9.4% | RH | 24.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.6% | 10.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.5% | 6.8% | RH | 20.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.7% |
| Giants | Home | 19.0% | 7.3% | RH | 19.3% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.9% | 9.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.9% | 8.6% | LH | 26.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.2% | 8.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.2% | 8.7% | RH | 20.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 26.4% | 10.9% |
| Reds | Home | 21.4% | 9.5% | LH | 20.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.2% | 12.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.7% | 7.4% | RH | 20.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 16.5% | 8.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.0% | 9.0% | LH | 19.8% | 9.7% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.5% | 7.1% | LH | 23.7% | 6.7% | L7Days | 16.9% | 6.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.2% | 10.8% | RH | 22.2% | 10.3% | L7Days | 17.9% | 11.3% |
| Mets | Home | 20.4% | 8.3% | RH | 19.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.9% | 11.5% | 16.9% | 2017 | 29.3% | 8.3% | 11.4% | Road | 33.5% | 10.6% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 14.3% | 15.0% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Years | 33.7% | 14.5% | 17.7% | 2017 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.9% | Home | 27.8% | 28.6% | 22.2% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.9% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.8% | 17.1% | 12.3% | 2017 | 29.8% | 17.1% | 12.3% | Road | 30.1% | 12.8% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 38.1% | 20.0% | 28.6% |
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 33.1% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 2017 | 33.1% | 15.8% | 16.9% | Home | 23.5% | 11.6% | 1.3% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 25.0% | 28.6% |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | L2 Years | 34.9% | 9.4% | 18.9% | 2017 | 34.9% | 9.4% | 18.9% | Home | 36.3% | 2.9% | 23.9% | L14 Days | 40.9% | 4.5% | 27.3% |
| Chris Flexen | Mets | L2 Years | 31.1% | 16.7% | 2.7% | 2017 | 31.1% | 16.7% | 2.7% | Home | 34.3% | 18.8% | -2.8% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 13.6% | -4.0% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 29.0% | 12.4% | 8.3% | 2017 | 30.8% | 14.5% | 8.2% | Home | 26.7% | 11.6% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 15.0% | 10.0% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.0% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 2017 | 32.4% | 12.3% | 10.0% | Road | 30.7% | 10.7% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 9.1% | 6.3% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.4% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 2017 | 35.9% | 12.7% | 18.1% | Home | 30.7% | 12.1% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 28.6% | 33.3% |
| Edwin Jackson | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.4% | 14.1% | 15.4% | 2017 | 32.4% | 15.3% | 5.2% | Road | 38.9% | 15.9% | 19.5% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 7.1% | 9.5% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | L2 Years | 33.5% | 15.2% | 16.1% | 2017 | 39.9% | 15.0% | 24.4% | Road | 35.6% | 21.4% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 29.7% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 2017 | 29.7% | 13.2% | 8.4% | Road | 30.1% | 9.9% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 7.7% | 13.9% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 37.4% | 13.4% | 21.5% | 2017 | 39.0% | 14.5% | 26.6% | Home | 41.2% | 12.7% | 26.5% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 30.8% | 20.7% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 33.9% | 17.9% | 18.1% | 2017 | 34.8% | 17.8% | 18.3% | Home | 33.9% | 18.1% | 19.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 33.3% | 23.3% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 31.0% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 2017 | 28.7% | 13.3% | 8.1% | Road | 32.5% | 18.6% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 0.0% | 18.5% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 33.0% | 13.2% | 16.2% | 2017 | 38.7% | 13.5% | 24.8% | Home | 38.0% | 12.9% | 23.2% | L14 Days | 44.7% | 10.0% | 34.2% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.5% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 2017 | 30.7% | 16.7% | 18.4% | Road | 33.5% | 15.2% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 0.0% | 23.1% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.7% | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2017 | 28.6% | 12.9% | 10.4% | Road | 26.7% | 7.5% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 28.6% | 15.2% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.3% | 19.6% | 13.8% | 2017 | 25.0% | 15.4% | 11.4% | Home | 19.6% | 20.0% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.3% | 15.8% | 10.2% | 2017 | 29.8% | 15.1% | 8.0% | Road | 29.9% | 19.6% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Mark Leiter | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.5% | 20.8% | 7.3% | 2017 | 28.5% | 20.8% | 7.3% | Home | 29.4% | 15.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 40.6% | 30.0% | 28.1% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 35.0% | 13.0% | 17.3% | 2017 | 34.6% | 14.2% | 18.0% | Road | 32.7% | 13.5% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 45.3% | 44.4% | 35.9% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 31.7% | 11.0% | 15.3% | 2017 | 34.3% | 11.5% | 18.0% | Home | 30.9% | 10.2% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 10.5% | 2.8% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 32.7% | 17.6% | 14.0% | 2017 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 10.7% | Home | 34.0% | 16.5% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 28.6% | 11.1% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 29.0% | 13.7% | 9.5% | 2017 | 31.7% | 11.6% | 10.5% | Road | 29.4% | 14.3% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 11.1% | -10.7% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 27.8% | 13.6% | 6.0% | 2017 | 26.1% | 14.8% | 2.4% | Home | 27.7% | 16.8% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 25.0% | 2.5% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.9% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 2017 | 31.5% | 12.9% | 9.4% | Road | 27.2% | 8.9% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 18.2% | 32.2% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 34.0% | 12.8% | 17.0% | 2017 | 34.6% | 11.8% | 19.2% | Road | 34.8% | 15.2% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 46.4% | 18.2% | 35.7% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 29.5% | 13.0% | 5.9% | 2017 | 29.3% | 10.9% | 5.0% | Home | 32.1% | 8.7% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 30.0% | 7.4% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.6% | 16.1% | 12.3% | 2017 | 29.5% | 14.1% | 9.7% | Road | 26.3% | 14.5% | 1.5% | L14 Days | 35.4% | 26.7% | 20.8% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Home | 29.2% | 12.7% | 9.9% | RH | 31.4% | 13.9% | 11.7% | L7Days | 32.3% | 24.2% | 9.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.7% | 16.0% | 10.2% | LH | 31.0% | 14.3% | 10.2% | L7Days | 41.3% | 20.6% | 23.9% |
| Royals | Home | 30.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | RH | 31.3% | 12.2% | 11.7% | L7Days | 27.5% | 7.9% | 2.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.6% | 14.8% | 10.4% | RH | 31.2% | 15.4% | 13.4% | L7Days | 31.8% | 17.0% | 14.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.1% | 14.4% | 11.5% | RH | 30.7% | 14.7% | 10.9% | L7Days | 31.9% | 14.9% | 13.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.6% | 13.9% | 10.6% | RH | 34.6% | 14.9% | 17.2% | L7Days | 28.3% | 17.9% | 8.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 32.2% | 11.7% | 11.9% | RH | 33.9% | 11.2% | 16.0% | L7Days | 28.7% | 15.4% | 3.1% |
| Indians | Home | 30.8% | 12.5% | 12.4% | LH | 31.6% | 12.5% | 13.4% | L7Days | 34.4% | 14.9% | 17.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 34.2% | 12.8% | 15.9% | RH | 33.5% | 14.9% | 17.4% | L7Days | 25.8% | 23.7% | 8.6% |
| Astros | Home | 30.7% | 15.2% | 13.1% | RH | 33.1% | 15.4% | 15.9% | L7Days | 28.2% | 10.9% | 10.4% |
| Braves | Home | 29.2% | 12.1% | 9.5% | RH | 30.9% | 11.3% | 12.5% | L7Days | 31.7% | 16.9% | 11.7% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.6% | 13.2% | 7.5% | RH | 30.2% | 13.4% | 10.9% | L7Days | 28.3% | 16.0% | 8.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 28.9% | 11.4% | 7.6% | RH | 30.6% | 13.1% | 10.5% | L7Days | 36.6% | 16.4% | 17.1% |
| Twins | Road | 31.0% | 12.7% | 13.8% | RH | 33.4% | 13.8% | 17.3% | L7Days | 34.6% | 27.1% | 23.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 32.1% | 13.1% | 12.9% | RH | 31.9% | 13.1% | 13.4% | L7Days | 45.7% | 23.9% | 30.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 30.9% | 12.5% | 12.2% | RH | 31.0% | 16.6% | 12.0% | L7Days | 30.0% | 17.9% | 11.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 29.4% | 15.5% | 8.6% | LH | 29.4% | 13.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 35.0% | 23.3% | 16.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 44.8% | 13.4% | 31.1% | RH | 39.8% | 11.6% | 24.3% | L7Days | 41.3% | 14.8% | 26.2% |
| Padres | Road | 31.1% | 15.1% | 9.4% | RH | 30.0% | 14.1% | 7.5% | L7Days | 30.5% | 10.3% | 9.9% |
| Rays | Home | 36.5% | 15.0% | 18.7% | RH | 34.8% | 16.8% | 16.7% | L7Days | 30.9% | 12.1% | 11.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.6% | 14.9% | 9.1% | RH | 31.6% | 15.2% | 11.6% | L7Days | 29.2% | 17.4% | 5.0% |
| Giants | Home | 25.3% | 6.2% | 4.3% | RH | 28.0% | 8.8% | 6.7% | L7Days | 23.7% | 7.7% | -1.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.8% | 17.1% | 11.9% | LH | 35.4% | 15.5% | 17.2% | L7Days | 31.8% | 22.2% | 6.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.2% | 15.0% | 13.1% | RH | 31.7% | 15.0% | 14.8% | L7Days | 33.1% | 8.7% | 19.1% |
| Reds | Home | 28.5% | 16.0% | 7.5% | LH | 28.7% | 15.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.7% | 20.3% | 5.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.6% | 11.1% | 13.4% | RH | 30.5% | 12.2% | 12.2% | L7Days | 31.6% | 7.6% | 9.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 30.2% | 10.4% | 8.8% | LH | 31.1% | 13.2% | 10.9% | L7Days | 37.3% | 19.7% | 16.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 31.3% | 16.8% | 11.4% | LH | 34.5% | 13.8% | 16.1% | L7Days | 34.1% | 21.4% | 15.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 34.8% | 14.8% | 18.5% | RH | 36.0% | 15.0% | 20.2% | L7Days | 36.9% | 9.8% | 16.1% |
| Mets | Home | 33.3% | 11.8% | 14.1% | RH | 34.7% | 13.7% | 17.2% | L7Days | 31.1% | 14.0% | 11.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 12.2% | 5.7% | 2.14 | 13.5% | 3.9% | 3.46 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 21.7% | 14.6% | 1.49 | 21.7% | 14.6% | 1.49 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 18.5% | 7.2% | 2.57 | 26.0% | 8.4% | 3.10 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 24.8% | 11.0% | 2.25 | 25.9% | 11.5% | 2.25 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 16.9% | 9.1% | 1.86 | 15.9% | 7.9% | 2.01 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 13.2% | 7.9% | 1.67 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 1.67 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 35.1% | 16.3% | 2.15 | 36.5% | 17.4% | 2.10 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.31 | 23.1% | 11.9% | 1.94 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 20.3% | 10.7% | 1.90 | 26.9% | 13.4% | 2.01 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 17.3% | 10.5% | 1.65 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 1.90 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 18.4% | 10.3% | 1.79 | 14.9% | 11.2% | 1.33 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 19.6% | 10.0% | 1.96 | 24.5% | 12.9% | 1.90 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 20.4% | 8.8% | 2.32 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.31 |
| James Shields | CHW | 18.9% | 9.6% | 1.97 | 24.6% | 11.2% | 2.20 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 19.7% | 8.0% | 2.46 | 18.3% | 6.3% | 2.90 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 15.2% | 8.4% | 1.81 | 12.3% | 8.6% | 1.43 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 11.8% | 5.5% | 2.15 | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.76 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 28.4% | 12.2% | 2.33 | 31.2% | 12.4% | 2.52 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | 23.9% | 9.8% | 2.44 | 25.5% | 11.2% | 2.28 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 19.9% | 10.3% | 1.93 | 18.1% | 10.7% | 1.69 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 20.5% | 7.4% | 2.77 | 26.9% | 11.7% | 2.30 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 15.4% | 8.0% | 1.93 | 12.0% | 6.9% | 1.74 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.19 | 23.1% | 8.3% | 2.78 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 22.8% | 9.3% | 2.45 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 2.44 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 18.9% | 8.2% | 2.30 | 17.7% | 6.4% | 2.77 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 16.6% | 8.7% | 1.91 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 2.34 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 28.4% | 11.1% | 2.56 | 27.8% | 12.7% | 2.19 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 21.1% | 11.8% | 1.79 | 11.3% | 7.3% | 1.55 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 17.5% | 8.2% | 2.13 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 2.44 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 26.6% | 14.2% | 1.87 | 27.6% | 13.4% | 2.06 |
Today’s outliers are all around 50 innings or less.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 3.31 | 5.53 | 2.22 | 5.26 | 1.95 | 4.55 | 1.24 | 5.41 | 2.10 | 2.1 | 5.18 | 3.08 | 5.42 | 3.32 | 4.85 | 2.75 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 9 | 3.84 | -5.16 | 4 | -5 | 11.53 | 2.53 | 0.00 | -9.00 | 9 | 3.84 | -5.16 | 4 | -5 | 11.53 | 2.53 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 4.56 | 4.55 | -0.01 | 4.33 | -0.23 | 4.72 | 0.16 | 5.55 | 0.99 | 4 | 3.69 | -0.31 | 3.61 | -0.39 | 3.47 | -0.53 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 5.36 | 3.78 | -1.58 | 4.51 | -0.85 | 4.9 | -0.46 | 4.22 | -1.14 | 6.16 | 3.49 | -2.67 | 4.09 | -2.07 | 4.87 | -1.29 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 5.37 | 4.27 | -1.1 | 4.39 | -0.98 | 3.79 | -1.58 | 4.56 | -0.81 | 4.45 | 4.66 | 0.21 | 4.73 | 0.28 | 4.32 | -0.13 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 6.55 | 6.47 | -0.08 | 6.76 | 0.21 | 7.27 | 0.72 | 9.11 | 2.56 | 6.55 | 6.47 | -0.08 | 6.76 | 0.21 | 7.27 | 0.72 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 2.67 | 2.66 | -0.01 | 2.49 | -0.18 | 2.57 | -0.1 | 2.24 | -0.43 | 2.23 | 2.42 | 0.19 | 2.32 | 0.09 | 2.75 | 0.52 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 3.31 | 4.09 | 0.78 | 3.85 | 0.54 | 3.67 | 0.36 | 3.86 | 0.55 | 2.57 | 4.02 | 1.45 | 3.74 | 1.17 | 3.6 | 1.03 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 4.17 | 4.64 | 0.47 | 4.93 | 0.76 | 4.74 | 0.57 | 4.77 | 0.60 | 4.1 | 3.72 | -0.38 | 4.04 | -0.06 | 4.2 | 0.1 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 3.43 | 4.77 | 1.34 | 5.03 | 1.6 | 5.3 | 1.87 | 6.19 | 2.76 | 3 | 4.34 | 1.34 | 4.59 | 1.59 | 4.37 | 1.37 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 4.52 | 4.25 | -0.27 | 4.31 | -0.21 | 4.48 | -0.04 | 4.13 | -0.39 | 3.38 | 4.93 | 1.55 | 5.08 | 1.7 | 5.52 | 2.14 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 3.33 | 4.66 | 1.33 | 4.8 | 1.47 | 4.71 | 1.38 | 3.89 | 0.56 | 3.58 | 3.88 | 0.3 | 4.35 | 0.77 | 3.87 | 0.29 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 5.06 | 4.8 | -0.26 | 5.13 | 0.07 | 5.26 | 0.2 | 5.20 | 0.14 | 6.84 | 5.18 | -1.66 | 5.49 | -1.35 | 5.65 | -1.19 |
| James Shields | CHW | 5.72 | 5.1 | -0.62 | 5.53 | -0.19 | 6.28 | 0.56 | 6.73 | 1.01 | 5.6 | 4.12 | -1.48 | 4.33 | -1.27 | 5.36 | -0.24 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 3.98 | 4.6 | 0.62 | 4.43 | 0.45 | 4.38 | 0.4 | 4.57 | 0.59 | 2.86 | 5.51 | 2.65 | 5.51 | 2.65 | 4.4 | 1.54 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 5.87 | 5.17 | -0.7 | 5.39 | -0.48 | 5.33 | -0.54 | 6.07 | 0.20 | 6.07 | 5.48 | -0.59 | 5.76 | -0.31 | 4.62 | -1.45 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 4.11 | 5.38 | 1.27 | 5.05 | 0.94 | 5.41 | 1.3 | 8.30 | 4.19 | 1.74 | 6.21 | 4.47 | 5.62 | 3.88 | 3.71 | 1.97 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3.18 | 3.33 | 0.15 | 3.1 | -0.08 | 3.02 | -0.16 | 2.98 | -0.20 | 3.07 | 3.35 | 0.28 | 2.98 | -0.09 | 3.03 | -0.04 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | 3.31 | 4.18 | 0.87 | 3.89 | 0.58 | 4.05 | 0.74 | 5.64 | 2.33 | 4.05 | 4.09 | 0.04 | 3.73 | -0.32 | 4.33 | 0.28 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 2.99 | 3.83 | 0.84 | 3.59 | 0.6 | 3.68 | 0.69 | 3.60 | 0.61 | 3.03 | 4.07 | 1.04 | 3.8 | 0.77 | 3.32 | 0.29 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 4.38 | 4.42 | 0.04 | 4.59 | 0.21 | 5.45 | 1.07 | 4.49 | 0.11 | 4.7 | 3.05 | -1.65 | 3.24 | -1.46 | 5.35 | 0.65 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 4.81 | 5.18 | 0.37 | 5.03 | 0.22 | 5.09 | 0.28 | 5.39 | 0.58 | 9.16 | 6.26 | -2.9 | 6.47 | -2.69 | 9.45 | 0.29 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 5.54 | 4.78 | -0.76 | 5.02 | -0.52 | 4.61 | -0.93 | 6.83 | 1.29 | 4.55 | 4.44 | -0.11 | 4.62 | 0.07 | 4.52 | -0.03 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 4.32 | 4.38 | 0.06 | 4.55 | 0.23 | 5.55 | 1.23 | 5.22 | 0.90 | 7.36 | 5.27 | -2.09 | 6.23 | -1.13 | 8.27 | 0.91 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 3.64 | 4.5 | 0.86 | 4.44 | 0.8 | 4.23 | 0.59 | 4.63 | 0.99 | 2.76 | 4.5 | 1.74 | 4.67 | 1.91 | 4.72 | 1.96 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 3.98 | 4.94 | 0.96 | 4.87 | 0.89 | 5 | 1.02 | 5.17 | 1.19 | 3.64 | 4.35 | 0.71 | 4.08 | 0.44 | 4.82 | 1.18 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 3.54 | 3.92 | 0.38 | 4.18 | 0.64 | 4.05 | 0.51 | 5.24 | 1.70 | 3.74 | 3.99 | 0.25 | 4.06 | 0.32 | 5.67 | 1.93 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 4.58 | 4.41 | -0.17 | 4.43 | -0.15 | 4.14 | -0.44 | 4.63 | 0.05 | 8.69 | 5.53 | -3.16 | 5.78 | -2.91 | 7.4 | -1.29 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 4.71 | 4.6 | -0.11 | 4.48 | -0.23 | 4.12 | -0.59 | 4.15 | -0.56 | 4.61 | 4.77 | 0.16 | 4.54 | -0.07 | 4.52 | -0.09 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 3.13 | 3.59 | 0.46 | 3.24 | 0.11 | 3.27 | 0.14 | 2.91 | -0.22 | 2.64 | 3.64 | 1 | 3.37 | 0.73 | 3.72 | 1.08 |
Asher Wojciechowski has a SIERA and DRA over a run below his ERA because he allows so many damn HRs. His 15.8 HR/FB isn’t even that far above league average, but his 27.5 GB% is so low that it’s generated so many additional HRs anyway.
Drew Pomeranz has a 79.5 LOB% that he probably doesn’t strike out enough batters to sustain in a park that elevates his BABIP (.317).
Marcus Stroman has a .312 BABIP, which is not that high and likely less the issue in his ERA gap than his 15.9% unearned run rate.
R.A. Dickey has an 11% unearned run rate. There are a lot of unearned runs on this board.
Rich Hill has an 81.1 LOB% that’s not overly obnoxious giving his high strikeout rate.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.289 | 0.274 | -0.015 | 50.0% | 0.186 | 6.7% | 92.7% | 86.3 | 3.40% | 32.40% | 386 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 0.285 | 0.214 | -0.071 | 27.8% | 0.278 | 12.5% | 74.1% | ||||
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.302 | 0.263 | -0.039 | 48.3% | 0.212 | 5.7% | 89.7% | 87.2 | 6.00% | 34.40% | 349 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 0.293 | 0.309 | 0.016 | 27.5% | 0.19 | 18.4% | 85.9% | 86.6 | 8.80% | 34.50% | 148 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 0.284 | 0.350 | 0.066 | 47.9% | 0.218 | 12.5% | 90.9% | 87.6 | 7.10% | 32.50% | 212 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 0.320 | 0.333 | 0.013 | 39.7% | 0.192 | 3.3% | 88.8% | 83.3 | 5.40% | 31.10% | 74 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.303 | 0.279 | -0.024 | 46.8% | 0.194 | 12.7% | 80.6% | 86.2 | 6.10% | 31.40% | 328 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.305 | 0.317 | 0.012 | 42.9% | 0.236 | 11.5% | 84.8% | 86.6 | 6.70% | 32.30% | 371 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.315 | 0.267 | -0.048 | 32.3% | 0.21 | 13.2% | 85.5% | 88.3 | 8.00% | 36.30% | 410 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 0.293 | 0.276 | -0.017 | 40.9% | 0.144 | 15.3% | 86.3% | 86 | 8.80% | 30.90% | 136 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 0.279 | 0.262 | -0.017 | 46.0% | 0.178 | 5.0% | 84.8% | 88 | 9.00% | 36.00% | 278 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.298 | 0.237 | -0.061 | 41.2% | 0.17 | 13.7% | 88.7% | 85.7 | 5.90% | 31.20% | 478 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.299 | 0.250 | -0.049 | 37.5% | 0.161 | 6.7% | 84.3% | 89.5 | 10.70% | 35.70% | 356 |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.288 | 0.286 | -0.002 | 36.6% | 0.179 | 5.6% | 84.9% | 88.2 | 9.30% | 36.90% | 236 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.307 | 0.272 | -0.035 | 50.9% | 0.18 | 14.1% | 89.9% | 85.8 | 6.50% | 27.80% | 418 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.309 | 0.320 | 0.011 | 32.4% | 0.251 | 13.0% | 90.5% | 89 | 7.60% | 36.10% | 460 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 0.293 | 0.330 | 0.037 | 46.8% | 0.261 | 3.3% | 89.5% | 86.4 | 4.40% | 30.70% | 114 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.290 | 0.289 | -0.001 | 50.8% | 0.195 | 10.3% | 83.9% | 87.4 | 6.10% | 34.20% | 395 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | 0.294 | 0.286 | -0.008 | 50.0% | 0.19 | 7.7% | 85.7% | 85.5 | 6.80% | 38.60% | 44 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.307 | 0.312 | 0.005 | 62.6% | 0.177 | 5.4% | 88.7% | 88.2 | 5.10% | 37.80% | 473 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 0.297 | 0.248 | -0.049 | 47.0% | 0.208 | 4.2% | 88.5% | 85.1 | 7.30% | 31.80% | 151 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.300 | 0.279 | -0.021 | 41.3% | 0.213 | 11.7% | 90.6% | 85.3 | 5.40% | 32.20% | 332 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.317 | 0.323 | 0.006 | 37.2% | 0.204 | 8.3% | 87.8% | 89 | 9.80% | 41.60% | 461 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.295 | 0.276 | -0.019 | 43.3% | 0.183 | 7.7% | 85.3% | 86.2 | 8.20% | 33.20% | 377 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 0.283 | 0.267 | -0.016 | 57.5% | 0.172 | 2.9% | 89.5% | 85.4 | 3.20% | 29.10% | 278 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.292 | 0.279 | -0.013 | 49.2% | 0.176 | 11.4% | 84.1% | 85.1 | 5.20% | 28.00% | 460 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.280 | 0.284 | 0.004 | 37.9% | 0.176 | 10.9% | 81.4% | 84.2 | 7.20% | 29.80% | 235 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.292 | 0.310 | 0.018 | 43.2% | 0.204 | 5.9% | 86.5% | 89.2 | 6.40% | 42.00% | 376 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 0.308 | 0.291 | -0.017 | 49.0% | 0.198 | 12.7% | 90.2% | 84.9 | 5.20% | 28.70% | 362 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.294 | 0.273 | -0.021 | 54.9% | 0.193 | 7.0% | 88.7% | 85.3 | 6.30% | 35.10% | 288 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Corey Kluber (1) is tonight’s top pitcher and probably projects for the top strikeout rate even against the Red Sox. He’s just so far ahead of the rest of the board.
Zack Godley (2) has been less ground balls and more strikeout recently, which is a great tradeoff for daily fantasy purposes, especially considering the park upgrade and lack of increase in hard contact.
Value Tier Two
Luis Severino (3) bounced back magnificently from his worst start of the season. His 28.4 K% is tied for second best on the board, though he has a slight SwStr% edge. His cost difference between sites is over $2K in a somewhat neutral spot.
Marcus Stroman (4) hasn’t really kept up the whole weak contact thing that was going on last month, but he’s still generating tons of ground balls with enough strikeouts. The Rays should make that more than enough strikeouts.
Rich Hill (5) has had some HR issues recently, but the good news is that it hasn’t taken away from his strikeout rate at all and he’s in a great park in Pittsburgh for exactly that type of issue. The double digit walk rate over the last month would concern me more (Pirates 9.7 BB% vs LHP).
Value Tier Three
Luke Weaver has some HR issues that are justified by the amount of contact he’s allowed above a 95 mph exit velocity, but not as much by his actual average exit velocity this season. This comes with some ability to miss bats in a great spot too at a reasonable cost, though not an exceptionally low one.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Asher Wojciechowski has a fly ball problem in a power haven. The Cubs can hit the ball out of the yard (15.4 HR/FB), but the strikeouts play. He doesn’t have to do much at less than $6K. He doesn’t walk anyone either, which will help when the ball leaves the yard once or twice.
Drew Pomeranz has two concerns tonight: his back and the Cleveland Indians. It’s not a great spot if he’s entirely healthy, but he has the talent and skills to surpass $8K in this spot if he is.
R.A. Dickey has been really good over the last few months, going back to June now and still costs less than $7.5K. He’ll still occasionally lose feel for the knuckler, which might result in a few long balls, but he’s usually out there missing bats and generating a good amount of weak grounders these days.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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