Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, May 31st
Today, only one pitcher makes his first major league start (as opposed to three yesterday), while another makes his second. Maybe we’re not taking the element of surprise seriously enough. Yesterday, the three first time starters allowed a total of three runs in 17.2 innings (and maybe still counting as the west coast games are still going on) with five walks and 13 strikeouts. While the peripherals aren’t exceptional, they’re certainly acceptable at a low cost.
It seems like we so often see these debuting pitchers make good in their first start. Teams now have more access to all kinds of information about minor league pitchers, so they shouldn’t be taken by surprise, but perhaps there’s just something about pitching to major league hitters for the first time. Maybe our default should be to recommend every single debuting pitcher or first time starter unless there’s a significant reason outside of talent projection to do so.
Barring that concept, I’m sorry to say it’s all top priced arms tonight. There are some great arms on the mound tonight in great spots and that’s not a bad thing, but the deep analysis may not even be very necessary today because it’s Scherzer, deGrom and Archer and there doesn’t seem to be much worth the effort on the bottom half of the board. I don’t think I’ve ever written an article before where the only pitchers recommended were the top priced ones. That changes today.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 11.1 | 3.52 | 5.72 | 52.2% | 0.94 | 3.46 | 4.22 | MIA | 92 | 91 | 118 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 2.6 | 4.76 | 6.2 | 46.6% | 0.89 | 4.5 | 4.53 | SEA | 109 | 108 | 115 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 0.7 | 4.17 | 30.3% | 1.11 | 7.45 | 4.17 | TAM | 104 | 115 | 127 | |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -10.2 | 3.7 | 6.27 | 55.0% | 0.98 | 3.62 | 3.44 | LOS | 95 | 113 | 113 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -5.8 | 4.61 | 4.79 | 41.3% | 0.97 | 5.69 | 4.44 | ARI | 73 | 106 | 69 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | -0.1 | 3.37 | 6.23 | 45.3% | 1.11 | 3.82 | 1.89 | TEX | 105 | 99 | 91 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 4.8 | 4.59 | 5.73 | 33.3% | 0.94 | 5.15 | 3.83 | PHI | 74 | 87 | 51 |
| David Paulino | HOU | -3.5 | 6.29 | 3. | 43.5% | 1.04 | 6.67 | MIN | 99 | 108 | 88 | |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.4 | 3.59 | 5.38 | 44.8% | 0.98 | 3.92 | 2.19 | CHW | 107 | 130 | 127 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 11 | 4.91 | 5.42 | 32.4% | 1.04 | 5.35 | 5.43 | HOU | 121 | 102 | 153 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | -1.3 | 4.19 | 5.03 | 47.8% | 0.98 | 4.64 | 4.04 | STL | 95 | 80 | 81 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 8.5 | 4.04 | 5.83 | 35.3% | 1.06 | 4.72 | 6.12 | DET | 83 | 94 | 88 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -4.1 | 3.26 | 6.3 | 45.0% | 0.91 | 3.24 | 2.88 | MIL | 96 | 97 | 72 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 5.4 | 3.87 | 5.92 | 57.7% | 0.91 | 4.42 | 3.53 | ANA | 109 | 96 | 83 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 3.4 | 3.4 | 6.53 | 52.8% | 0.91 | 3.85 | 2.76 | SDG | 75 | 82 | 76 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 5.3 | 3.53 | 5.76 | 46.4% | 0.89 | 3.45 | COL | 91 | 91 | 81 | |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | -4.1 | 3.99 | 5.59 | 44.2% | 0.91 | 3.95 | 4.7 | ATL | 91 | 94 | 70 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -5.8 | 4.35 | 5.91 | 45.8% | 0.91 | 4.29 | 4.87 | NYM | 86 | 101 | 118 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -3.4 | 3.99 | 5.76 | 44.0% | 1.02 | 4.04 | 4.64 | NYY | 108 | 120 | 95 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -9.1 | 3.85 | 5.72 | 60.5% | 0.91 | 4.1 | 4.19 | CHC | 85 | 87 | 76 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0 | 3.65 | 6.33 | 48.3% | 1.02 | 3.94 | 2.55 | BAL | 85 | 91 | 59 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 4.3 | 4.67 | 5. | 38.0% | 1.06 | 4.45 | 4.92 | KAN | 79 | 67 | 82 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 2.1 | 4.84 | 5.16 | 38.5% | 0.93 | 4.45 | 5.42 | WAS | 102 | 111 | 88 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -6 | 2.86 | 6.76 | 34.3% | 0.93 | 3.71 | 2.82 | SFO | 74 | 74 | 69 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | -2.4 | 4.49 | 4.85 | 0.492 | 1.03 | 5.09 | 6.01 | CIN | 101 | 102 | 95 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | -8.8 | 4.59 | 4.5 | 0.389 | 1.09 | 4.83 | 2.96 | OAK | 84 | 104 | 92 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | -2.7 | 4.97 | 5.2 | 0.498 | 0.98 | 4.64 | 3.06 | BOS | 115 | 100 | 122 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -7.8 | 3.98 | 5.66 | 0.461 | 1.09 | 3.67 | 3.35 | CLE | 111 | 93 | 138 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 20.7 | 4.66 | 5.26 | 0.384 | 1.03 | 4.81 | 5.03 | TOR | 100 | 96 | 159 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -5 | 4.08 | 5.46 | 0.543 | 0.97 | 3.68 | 4.05 | PIT | 92 | 89 | 106 |
Carlos Martinez has gone at least six innings with three runs or less in six straight starts, striking out at least seven in four of those starts and nine last time out in Colorado. His walk issues appear to be ironed out as well with two or fewer in four of his last five starts. That’s good because the Dodgers are not only an offense that hits RHP hard, but they are patient with a 10.2 BB% against RHP too. He still has some issues with LHBs. They have a just a .307 wOBA with a 50 GB% against him, but also a 10.4 K-BB% and 38.8 Hard%.
Chris Archer has struck out at least 11 in four of his last five starts. He’s maintained his season 38% hard hit rate over that span and has an 89.3 mph aEV on the season, but that’s less of a concern when you’re striking out so many batters. Texas is an average offense, magnified by the park (34.3 Hard%, 15.6 HR/FB at home).
Drew Pomeranz struck out a season high 11 Rangers in his last start, the first time he’d gone more than four innings in four starts. His 20.3 K-BB% now tops last season when he started strong before taking a step back after the transition from San Diego to Boston. He threw nearly twice as many cutters (11.5%) in his last start as he had in any other. His 35.3 Hard% almost matches his 38.5 GB%, which could be a bit toubling against the top offense in baseball against LHP (17.9 K%). The White Sox even got to Chris Sale a bit last night.
Jacob deGrom has a 32.2 K% and 15.3 SwStr%, both marks just the second on the slate. He pitched into the ninth, striking out 10 Pirates last time out and with the Mets playing 12 innings last night, he may be asked to do some work again after showing he can handle it. He has at least nine Ks in six of his last eight and faces the Brewers (24 K% vs RHP). He has had occasional issues with walks (9.0%) and HRs (eight) that he hasn’t had in the past, which is where Milwaukee could cause some trouble (18 HR/FB vs RHP), but it’s not nearly enough to be very concerned about.
Masahiro Tanaka was considered a risk prior to his last start, as he’d really been struggling through May with a 10.50 ERA and 10 HRs through four starts. Then he strikes out 13 of 27 A’s with a 22.3 SwStr% and everything seems fine. That finally moved his strikeout rate above 20% for the season with a 13.9 SwStr% that still suggests quite a bit more. It feels strange to type this, but he has a really favorable matchup in Baltimore against a struggling offense, who have not performed as expected against RHP at home. They have a 30.8 K% and 23.5 Hard% over the last week.
Max Scherzer is one of the easiest pitchers to evaluate. I sometimes can’t find enough words to say about him because it’s so easy. He finished one out from a complete game with 13 Ks last time out, the third time he’s gone at least eight innings this year. Sure, 10 HRs over his last seven starts, but still an ERA and SIERA below three with a 33.3 K%. The Giants don’t strike out a lot, but facing them in San Francisco may provide the top run prevention spot. He might get that complete game tonight. His 108 pitches last time out was only his fourth highest pitch total of the season.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Jaime Garcia (.242 – 73.5% – 12.5) is still generating ground balls at a 54.2 GB%, but the sub-four ERA masks the career low 6.0 K-BB%. The Angels may actually reduce strikeouts without Trout.
Mike Pelfrey (.234 – 64.9% – 12.8)
Antonio Senzatela (.249 – 79.8% – 11.7)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jesse Chavez is in a nice spot at home against Atlanta, but has allowed five HRs over his last two starts (13 for the year) and has struck out just 17% of batters in May. He’s one of a few arms that could serve as an SP2 in a pinch though.
Junior Guerra has a $2.2K cost differential between sites. He returned from a nearly two month layoff with 5.2 innings against the Diamondbacks with five strikeouts and three walks. The Mets don’t strike out a lot, but he’s probably another guy that can be plugged in as a cheap SP2 on DraftKings if necessary. He surprised with a league average 11.6 K-BB% last year, though the .250 BABIP and 8.3 HR/FB made his ERA look a bit better than his estimators.
Hyun-Jin Ryu is still missing bats reasonable well, but has only twice completed six innings this season with mixed results. Three times he’s failed to even go five innings. While he’s struck out at least seven twice, he also allowed three HRs in one of those starts, while going just 5.1 innings in the other. Something always seems to be holding him back. He’s gotten through more than 90 pitches four times, so it’s not as much about the team limiting his work load, though he did throw just 79 and 51 pitches in his last two outings (the last in long relief). He does have a nice matchup tonight against an offense that really struggles with LHP (5.9 HR/FB) and may be reasonable for those in need of a cheap SP2.
James Paxton returns in a nice spot at home against Colorado for his first start in nearly a month, but forearm injuries are concerning and he saw just 16 batters in his lone AA rehab start.
Austin Bibens-Dirkx is a 32 year-old rookie with 11.1 innings out of the bullpen for Texas with an average 13.1 K-BB%, but 30.3 GB% and 36.4 Hard% that may not fly well in that park against an offense with some power. Three of his four outings have been on the road and two of them lasted at least four innings. He threw 84 pitches in his last start, so he may be able to get through five or six innings tonight. I know what I said in the open, but still have a hard time pulling the trigger here. Two of his outings have been like starts already, but if you want to plug him into an SP2 spot, who can argue?
Ian Kennedy has almost as many HRs allowed (five) as strikeouts (eight) in three May starts interrupted for a few weeks by injury. He’s also walked six of 53 batters.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.2% | 6.3% | Road | 21.7% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 7.6% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 14.7% | 7.2% | Road | 16.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 8.0% |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | L2 Years | 19.6% | 6.5% | Home | 20.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 6.5% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.2% | 8.3% | Home | 21.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 24.6% | 5.3% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.7% | 7.4% | Home | 14.6% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 4.8% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 28.1% | 7.9% | Road | 24.8% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 41.1% | 5.4% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.1% | 9.7% | Home | 20.6% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 10.4% |
| David Paulino | Astros | L2 Years | 6.9% | 10.3% | Road | 6.9% | 10.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 27.3% | 9.1% | Road | 25.4% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 7.1% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 18.7% | 9.5% | Home | 18.7% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 20.9% | 9.0% | Road | 18.3% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 5.4% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.3% | 8.1% | Home | 22.7% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 15.6% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 27.1% | 6.2% | Home | 30.5% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 6.7% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.4% | Road | 18.1% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 7.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.6% | 7.6% | Road | 21.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 4.1% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 24.5% | 5.9% | Home | 24.7% | 5.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.0% | Home | 22.5% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 4.6% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 20.6% | 8.6% | Road | 21.5% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 12.5% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.1% | 6.5% | Home | 20.4% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 1.8% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 17.2% | 6.9% | Home | 15.2% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 6.1% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.2% | 4.5% | Road | 17.7% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 35.4% | 6.3% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.9% | 8.0% | Road | 18.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 6.0% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 16.4% | 8.4% | Home | 18.4% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.5% | 5.5% | Road | 30.1% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 36.5% | 9.6% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.7% | 10.5% | Home | 15.6% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 17.7% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 23.3% | 12.7% | Home | 22.4% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 6.1% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 11.3% | 7.3% | Home | 13.4% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 2.4% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 22.0% | 7.2% | Road | 23.1% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 2.2% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 17.9% | 7.5% | Road | 14.4% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 12.0% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.8% | 8.8% | Road | 18.3% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 4.1% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Home | 19.5% | 8.4% | RH | 20.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 19.4% | 9.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.3% | 10.5% | RH | 20.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.4% |
| Rays | Road | 28.0% | 10.0% | RH | 26.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.4% | 10.4% | RH | 22.6% | 10.2% | L7Days | 26.7% | 10.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.2% | 8.2% | RH | 23.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.6% | 5.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 21.3% | 9.6% | RH | 22.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 28.4% | 7.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.7% | 7.5% | RH | 22.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 24.0% | 8.7% |
| Twins | Home | 21.8% | 11.8% | RH | 21.9% | 10.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 10.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.9% | 8.4% | LH | 17.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 25.0% | 6.9% |
| Astros | Road | 18.9% | 9.2% | LH | 18.0% | 9.9% | L7Days | 14.3% | 7.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.4% | 9.9% | LH | 22.6% | 10.2% | L7Days | 18.3% | 9.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 25.5% | 10.1% | RH | 23.7% | 10.4% | L7Days | 26.1% | 10.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 22.8% | 8.3% | RH | 24.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.1% | 9.0% |
| Angels | Home | 18.0% | 8.3% | LH | 19.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.8% |
| Padres | Home | 22.7% | 9.0% | RH | 25.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 29.1% | 7.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.3% | 7.5% | LH | 23.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 18.1% | 7.5% |
| Braves | Road | 20.4% | 7.7% | RH | 20.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.0% | 6.2% |
| Mets | Home | 19.5% | 9.5% | RH | 19.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.3% | 9.0% | RH | 22.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 23.0% | 10.4% | RH | 22.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 25.8% | 10.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.2% | 8.2% | RH | 22.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 30.8% | 5.6% |
| Royals | Home | 19.2% | 7.6% | LH | 18.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.5% | 6.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.8% | 8.9% | RH | 19.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.6% | 7.6% |
| Giants | Home | 19.1% | 6.9% | RH | 19.7% | 7.1% | L7Days | 17.1% | 9.6% |
| Reds | Road | 18.8% | 7.6% | RH | 20.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.7% | 7.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.1% | 8.8% | RH | 24.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 32.1% | 6.4% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.2% | 9.6% | RH | 18.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.1% | 10.9% |
| Indians | Home | 19.3% | 10.1% | LH | 17.3% | 10.5% | L7Days | 16.5% | 9.5% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.5% | 8.5% | RH | 19.8% | 7.5% | L7Days | 14.9% | 9.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.3% | 9.4% | RH | 18.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.0% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.2% | 13.6% | 5.9% | 2017 | 24.4% | 12.0% | -2.3% | Road | 27.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 16.7% | -13.1% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 28.1% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 2017 | 28.1% | 11.7% | 13.5% | Road | 25.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 12.5% | 27.0% |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | L2 Years | 36.4% | 11.8% | 18.2% | 2017 | 36.4% | 11.8% | 18.2% | Home | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 11.8% | 18.2% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 2017 | 32.8% | 15.1% | 11.2% | Home | 27.3% | 13.5% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 6.7% | 12.5% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.7% | 8.7% | 15.9% | 2017 | 34.7% | 8.5% | 19.7% | Home | 36.1% | 13.3% | 23.1% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 15.0% | 12.5% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 33.5% | 13.0% | 16.5% | 2017 | 38.3% | 8.8% | 23.0% | Road | 35.1% | 18.3% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 46.7% | 12.5% | 30.0% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.8% | 11.5% | 16.3% | 2017 | 36.7% | 10.1% | 14.4% | Home | 34.4% | 8.4% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 41.4% | 12.5% | 24.2% |
| David Paulino | Astros | L2 Years | 26.1% | 0.0% | 4.4% | 2017 | Road | 26.1% | 0.0% | 4.4% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.7% | 14.0% | 10.0% | 2017 | 35.3% | 17.8% | 13.4% | Road | 31.2% | 11.3% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 12.5% | 22.8% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 36.7% | 11.8% | 20.7% | 2017 | 37.6% | 11.8% | 23.0% | Home | 39.0% | 13.7% | 22.4% | L14 Days | 42.5% | 17.4% | 30.0% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 34.3% | 23.1% | 13.1% | 2017 | 32.8% | 24.2% | 9.3% | Road | 31.3% | 17.6% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 41.4% | 25.0% | 13.8% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 36.6% | 13.2% | 20.2% | 2017 | 36.8% | 13.8% | 20.6% | Home | 39.5% | 10.7% | 22.8% | L14 Days | 40.9% | 27.3% | 31.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 30.5% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 2017 | 35.3% | 16.0% | 13.5% | Home | 29.3% | 11.4% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 10.0% | 5.6% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 28.8% | 14.2% | 7.7% | 2017 | 28.1% | 12.5% | 2.4% | Road | 29.8% | 13.5% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 14.3% | -3.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.2% | 10.4% | 2.5% | 2017 | 33.1% | 16.1% | 10.4% | Road | 30.2% | 15.5% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 16.7% | 19.3% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.2% | 6.6% | 17.7% | 2017 | 29.8% | 0.0% | 14.9% | Home | 31.3% | 5.3% | 18.4% | L14 Days | |||
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 32.6% | 16.5% | 15.7% | 2017 | 36.3% | 20.0% | 21.2% | Home | 29.7% | 18.1% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 45.7% | 41.7% | 34.3% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.7% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 2017 | 22.7% | 22.2% | -4.6% | Road | 30.3% | 9.8% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 14.3% | 6.2% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.3% | 14.7% | 10.3% | 2017 | 32.6% | 14.5% | 12.9% | Home | 29.1% | 12.7% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 31.9% | 16.7% | 14.9% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 33.1% | 21.4% | 16.9% | 2017 | 29.6% | 20.0% | 15.2% | Home | 33.8% | 20.0% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 46.0% | 30.0% | 35.2% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.8% | 15.9% | 13.2% | 2017 | 32.4% | 22.8% | 13.6% | Road | 30.4% | 12.4% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 30.0% | 21.5% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 34.0% | 14.4% | 16.7% | 2017 | 40.8% | 12.3% | 24.6% | Road | 32.7% | 12.1% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 48.2% | 25.0% | 37.5% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 32.8% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 2017 | 31.1% | 7.8% | 13.9% | Home | 30.8% | 10.8% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 31.9% | 8.3% | 12.7% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.2% | 12.8% | 8.0% | 2017 | 25.6% | 13.2% | 5.1% | Road | 31.4% | 13.4% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 23.1% | 11.1% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.0% | 16.0% | 14.2% | 2017 | 23.5% | 10.5% | 8.8% | Home | 33.3% | 11.1% | 20.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 20.0% | 17.2% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 31.1% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 2017 | 30.8% | 11.1% | 15.4% | Home | 32.0% | 10.5% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 18.2% | 25.8% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.0% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 2017 | 28.5% | 12.8% | 3.5% | Home | 33.7% | 19.3% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 11.1% | 3.2% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.3% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 2017 | 32.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | Road | 34.9% | 16.7% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 33.5% | 14.1% | 18.7% | 2017 | 30.2% | 14.9% | 13.8% | Road | 34.4% | 11.9% | 19.7% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | -14.3% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.8% | 17.0% | 14.1% | 2017 | 27.4% | 13.3% | 10.7% | Road | 21.0% | 12.9% | -4.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.1% | 7.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Home | 32.5% | 15.1% | 11.1% | RH | 31.2% | 13.3% | 11.0% | L7Days | 31.2% | 17.3% | 7.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 28.7% | 10.7% | 7.9% | RH | 30.1% | 11.5% | 11.7% | L7Days | 35.4% | 7.8% | 18.7% |
| Rays | Road | 36.3% | 18.2% | 17.9% | RH | 36.6% | 17.7% | 19.1% | L7Days | 37.2% | 17.9% | 22.1% |
| Dodgers | Road | 32.8% | 9.9% | 16.8% | RH | 34.9% | 14.0% | 20.4% | L7Days | 35.9% | 18.3% | 22.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 29.0% | 12.8% | 9.0% | RH | 36.8% | 16.1% | 20.6% | L7Days | 27.3% | 9.4% | 4.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 34.3% | 15.6% | 15.2% | RH | 33.1% | 14.7% | 12.7% | L7Days | 30.0% | 15.0% | 7.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 28.9% | 10.9% | 6.4% | RH | 29.0% | 11.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 23.8% | 14.0% | 0.7% |
| Twins | Home | 33.2% | 10.6% | 16.8% | RH | 33.8% | 13.3% | 18.4% | L7Days | 34.3% | 8.1% | 16.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 27.3% | 12.2% | 6.4% | LH | 30.7% | 13.7% | 12.6% | L7Days | 27.6% | 20.0% | 7.5% |
| Astros | Road | 31.0% | 12.4% | 13.5% | LH | 25.0% | 14.7% | 5.4% | L7Days | 30.9% | 17.8% | 16.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 29.9% | 9.9% | 9.6% | LH | 33.1% | 5.9% | 16.2% | L7Days | 29.9% | 10.3% | 9.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.5% | 12.1% | 18.3% | RH | 41.4% | 11.9% | 25.8% | L7Days | 33.3% | 10.8% | 17.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 28.9% | 16.8% | 10.0% | RH | 33.2% | 18.0% | 14.0% | L7Days | 31.8% | 10.3% | 9.8% |
| Angels | Home | 28.8% | 13.8% | 9.4% | LH | 31.7% | 8.3% | 16.0% | L7Days | 35.0% | 12.9% | 18.9% |
| Padres | Home | 26.4% | 10.7% | 3.1% | RH | 28.6% | 14.0% | 6.2% | L7Days | 27.0% | 9.4% | 4.9% |
| Rockies | Road | 31.2% | 13.0% | 10.9% | LH | 32.2% | 17.2% | 12.8% | L7Days | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.0% |
| Braves | Road | 31.4% | 11.3% | 13.7% | RH | 31.3% | 10.9% | 13.8% | L7Days | 32.6% | 4.1% | 21.0% |
| Mets | Home | 32.3% | 8.4% | 12.6% | RH | 35.0% | 11.8% | 17.3% | L7Days | 42.9% | 10.1% | 25.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 30.1% | 12.8% | 11.5% | RH | 31.2% | 17.3% | 11.4% | L7Days | 29.9% | 10.8% | 7.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 28.1% | 11.8% | 8.4% | RH | 29.7% | 12.1% | 12.9% | L7Days | 24.5% | 13.4% | 4.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 26.5% | 12.2% | 5.4% | RH | 29.6% | 14.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 23.5% | 11.6% | 0.7% |
| Royals | Home | 30.2% | 9.3% | 10.7% | LH | 28.6% | 9.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 29.9% | 10.9% | 11.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.2% | 13.7% | 11.5% | RH | 31.4% | 14.2% | 14.1% | L7Days | 28.9% | 10.6% | 9.6% |
| Giants | Home | 24.3% | 7.6% | 3.0% | RH | 29.2% | 9.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 30.6% | 6.6% | 10.9% |
| Reds | Road | 28.6% | 14.2% | 8.0% | RH | 28.7% | 13.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 28.5% | 25.0% | 11.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 36.0% | 11.7% | 17.9% | RH | 35.9% | 16.1% | 19.9% | L7Days | 33.3% | 15.9% | 18.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 34.1% | 12.9% | 15.6% | RH | 36.3% | 9.7% | 19.3% | L7Days | 34.1% | 16.1% | 17.6% |
| Indians | Home | 32.0% | 14.5% | 16.4% | LH | 32.0% | 12.0% | 14.1% | L7Days | 33.3% | 17.3% | 19.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 30.6% | 13.2% | 11.0% | RH | 31.2% | 15.1% | 10.9% | L7Days | 36.4% | 24.6% | 19.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 30.5% | 9.9% | 9.1% | RH | 30.0% | 9.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 34.2% | 13.0% | 11.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 20.5% | 11.1% | 1.85 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 2.20 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 14.7% | 6.1% | 2.41 | 15.2% | 6.7% | 2.27 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 19.6% | 8.9% | 2.20 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 2.20 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 26.5% | 11.2% | 2.37 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 2.44 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 17.8% | 11.3% | 1.58 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 1.79 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 29.5% | 12.9% | 2.29 | 34.8% | 13.7% | 2.54 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 24.6% | 12.0% | 2.05 | 21.9% | 12.8% | 1.71 |
| David Paulino | HOU | ||||||
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 29.2% | 10.1% | 2.89 | 29.0% | 11.2% | 2.59 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 16.5% | 8.1% | 2.04 | 14.2% | 6.8% | 2.09 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 21.5% | 10.9% | 1.97 | 20.9% | 10.8% | 1.94 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 20.7% | 8.8% | 2.35 | 15.1% | 6.6% | 2.29 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 32.2% | 15.3% | 2.10 | 30.2% | 13.0% | 2.32 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 16.2% | 10.1% | 1.60 | 19.4% | 10.9% | 1.78 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 26.1% | 10.8% | 2.42 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 2.37 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 30.0% | 13.8% | 2.17 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 2.43 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 18.8% | 8.5% | 2.21 | 17.0% | 7.2% | 2.36 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 25.7% | 15.3% | 1.68 | 20.8% | 15.3% | 1.36 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 14.9% | 9.0% | 1.66 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 1.92 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.10 | 24.2% | 10.6% | 2.28 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 21.1% | 13.9% | 1.52 | 25.2% | 15.5% | 1.63 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 15.1% | 8.3% | 1.82 | 13.4% | 7.4% | 1.81 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 15.0% | 5.6% | 2.68 | 11.0% | 4.1% | 2.68 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 33.3% | 15.7% | 2.12 | 36.3% | 16.3% | 2.23 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | 14.0% | 7.2% | 1.94 | 14.0% | 7.2% | 1.94 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 28.1% | 13.3% | 2.11 | 28.1% | 13.3% | 2.11 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 12.2% | 6.2% | 1.97 | 14.4% | 5.7% | 2.53 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 26.0% | 13.6% | 1.91 | 26.5% | 13.3% | 1.99 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 20.5% | 11.0% | 1.86 | 18.3% | 10.4% | 1.76 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 21.5% | 13.5% | 1.59 | 20.2% | 13.7% | 1.47 |
Drew Pomeranz has had a 15+ SwStr% in two of his last three starts and has been in double digits in four of six, but his SwStr% probably does not support a strikeout rate close to 30%.
Masahiro Tanaka generally runs on the low end of K/SwStr, but not this low and we saw what he’s capable of last time out.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 4.34 | 4.06 | -0.28 | 3.92 | -0.42 | 3.79 | -0.55 | 3.05 | -1.29 | 4.15 | 4.22 | 0.07 | 4.22 | 0.07 | 4.64 | 0.49 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 3.19 | 4.76 | 1.57 | 4.55 | 1.36 | 4.37 | 1.18 | 6.42 | 3.23 | 3.6 | 4.92 | 1.32 | 4.56 | 0.96 | 4.69 | 1.09 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 3.97 | 4.17 | 0.2 | 5.06 | 1.09 | 4.79 | 0.82 | 5.03 | 1.06 | 3.97 | 4.17 | 0.2 | 5.06 | 1.09 | 4.79 | 0.82 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.32 | 3.61 | 0.29 | 3.44 | 0.12 | 3.64 | 0.32 | 2.44 | -0.88 | 2.23 | 3.66 | 1.43 | 3.5 | 1.27 | 3.52 | 1.29 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 6.29 | 4.74 | -1.55 | 4.97 | -1.32 | 4.16 | -2.13 | 4.38 | -1.91 | 6.04 | 4.25 | -1.79 | 4.11 | -1.93 | 4.13 | -1.91 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 3.61 | 3.34 | -0.27 | 3.32 | -0.29 | 2.79 | -0.82 | 1.83 | -1.78 | 3.35 | 2.7 | -0.65 | 2.57 | -0.78 | 2.18 | -1.17 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 3.83 | 4.31 | 0.48 | 4.71 | 0.88 | 4.21 | 0.38 | 3.10 | -0.73 | 3.54 | 4.65 | 1.11 | 5.12 | 1.58 | 4.6 | 1.06 |
| David Paulino | HOU | ||||||||||||||||
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 4.7 | 3.45 | -1.25 | 3.39 | -1.31 | 4 | -0.7 | 3.79 | -0.91 | 5.24 | 3.6 | -1.64 | 3.54 | -1.7 | 3.52 | -1.72 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 4.31 | 5.14 | 0.83 | 5.52 | 1.21 | 5.25 | 0.94 | 6.14 | 1.83 | 6.41 | 5.86 | -0.55 | 6.09 | -0.32 | 7.23 | 0.82 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 4.28 | 4.11 | -0.17 | 4.04 | -0.24 | 5.23 | 0.95 | 5.74 | 1.46 | 3.86 | 4.68 | 0.82 | 4.65 | 0.79 | 4.58 | 0.72 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 4.43 | 4.83 | 0.4 | 5.14 | 0.71 | 5.25 | 0.82 | 5.15 | 0.72 | 10.32 | 5.66 | -4.66 | 6.49 | -3.83 | 9.2 | -1.12 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.23 | 3.12 | -0.11 | 2.85 | -0.38 | 3.14 | -0.09 | 2.02 | -1.21 | 3.62 | 3.34 | -0.28 | 3 | -0.62 | 3.34 | -0.28 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 3.58 | 4.8 | 1.22 | 4.49 | 0.91 | 4.42 | 0.84 | 5.69 | 2.11 | 3.12 | 3.98 | 0.86 | 3.73 | 0.61 | 3.68 | 0.56 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.92 | 3.45 | -1.47 | 3.59 | -1.33 | 4.02 | -0.9 | 3.85 | -1.07 | 5.2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | 3.94 | -1.26 | 3.71 | -1.49 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 1.43 | 3.18 | 1.75 | 3.1 | 1.67 | 1.51 | 0.08 | 1.87 | 0.44 | 1.69 | 5.57 | 3.88 | 4.87 | 3.18 | 3.59 | 1.9 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 5.09 | 4.38 | -0.71 | 4.39 | -0.7 | 5.38 | 0.29 | 4.66 | -0.43 | 5.72 | 4.43 | -1.29 | 4.5 | -1.22 | 6.24 | 0.52 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 3.12 | 3.75 | 0.63 | 4.11 | 0.99 | 5.34 | 2.22 | 3.16 | 0.04 | 1.59 | 4.87 | 3.28 | 4.96 | 3.37 | 5.15 | 3.56 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 6.17 | 5.05 | -1.12 | 5.14 | -1.03 | 5.36 | -0.81 | 7.12 | 0.95 | 4.5 | 4.38 | -0.12 | 4.42 | -0.08 | 4.44 | -0.06 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 5.61 | 3.22 | -2.39 | 3.25 | -2.36 | 3.77 | -1.84 | 4.94 | -0.67 | 6 | 3.18 | -2.82 | 3.23 | -2.77 | 4.14 | -1.86 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 5.86 | 3.87 | -1.99 | 3.89 | -1.97 | 5.18 | -0.68 | 4.11 | -1.75 | 7.82 | 3.34 | -4.48 | 3.33 | -4.49 | 6.5 | -1.32 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 5.4 | 5.08 | -0.32 | 4.86 | -0.54 | 4.73 | -0.67 | 6.83 | 1.43 | 6.92 | 4.86 | -2.06 | 4.52 | -2.4 | 4.87 | -2.05 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 4.45 | 5.2 | 0.75 | 5.03 | 0.58 | 4.22 | -0.23 | 6.88 | 2.43 | 6.59 | 5.94 | -0.65 | 5.65 | -0.94 | 4.6 | -1.99 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.77 | 2.85 | 0.08 | 3.29 | 0.52 | 3.29 | 0.52 | 1.95 | -0.82 | 2.6 | 2.51 | -0.09 | 2.87 | 0.27 | 3.49 | 0.89 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | 5.75 | 5.75 | 0 | 5.9 | 0.15 | 5.58 | -0.17 | 7.83 | 2.08 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 0 | 5.9 | 0.15 | 5.58 | -0.17 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 2.82 | 4.15 | 1.33 | 3.78 | 0.96 | 3.56 | 0.74 | 2.66 | -0.16 | 2.82 | 4.15 | 1.33 | 3.78 | 0.96 | 3.56 | 0.74 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 4.41 | 5.17 | 0.76 | 5.04 | 0.63 | 4.99 | 0.58 | 3.78 | -0.63 | 4.21 | 4.6 | 0.39 | 4.41 | 0.2 | 4.7 | 0.49 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 4.35 | 3.84 | -0.51 | 3.85 | -0.5 | 3.39 | -0.96 | 2.48 | -1.87 | 3.18 | 3.75 | 0.57 | 3.78 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 0.32 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 4.95 | 4.34 | -0.61 | 4.54 | -0.41 | 4.8 | -0.15 | 5.71 | 0.76 | 5.11 | 4.86 | -0.25 | 4.75 | -0.36 | 4 | -1.11 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 1.99 | 3.67 | 1.68 | 3.24 | 1.25 | 3.25 | 1.26 | 3.27 | 1.28 | 1.69 | 3.49 | 1.8 | 3.07 | 1.38 | 2.91 | 1.22 |
Drew Pomeranz has a BABIP more than 40 points above his career .280 rate. Defense and home park aren’t doing him many favors (though he’s not home tonight). His line drive rate is a bit elevated as well. His 17.8 HR/FB is a career high outside of a few starts for Colorado in 2013.
Masahiro Tanaka has a career high .331 BABIP more than 50 points above his career rate with a 22.8 HR/FB. His BABIP profile actually looks strong, while he does have a 15.1 career HR/FB.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.291 | 0.325 | 0.034 | 53.5% | 0.174 | 8.0% | 82.5% | 86 | 4.70% | 3.30% | 86 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.288 | 0.249 | -0.039 | 46.6% | 0.217 | 6.7% | 90.4% | 86.8 | 6.80% | 5.20% | 192 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 0.286 | 0.194 | -0.092 | 30.3% | 0.182 | 5.9% | 91.8% | 86.2 | 12.10% | 8.70% | 33 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.290 | 0.258 | -0.032 | 51.2% | 0.176 | 11.3% | 86.0% | 87.2 | 5.80% | 3.70% | 171 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.308 | 0.352 | 0.044 | 36.8% | 0.222 | 5.1% | 85.1% | 87.7 | 6.10% | 4.50% | 147 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.276 | 0.305 | 0.029 | 42.0% | 0.204 | 13.2% | 80.9% | 89.3 | 6.00% | 3.70% | 183 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 0.275 | 0.205 | -0.07 | 35.0% | 0.146 | 20.3% | 83.6% | 86 | 7.20% | 4.50% | 139 |
| David Paulino | HOU | 0.282 | ||||||||||
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.311 | 0.324 | 0.013 | 38.5% | 0.231 | 8.9% | 86.2% | 89.3 | 10.10% | 6.30% | 119 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 0.272 | 0.262 | -0.01 | 32.4% | 0.193 | 11.8% | 86.5% | 90.6 | 10.30% | 7.60% | 174 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 0.290 | 0.324 | 0.034 | 48.7% | 0.231 | 12.1% | 84.5% | 86.4 | 9.20% | 6.20% | 119 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.300 | 0.193 | -0.107 | 38.5% | 0.12 | 6.9% | 83.9% | 90 | 12.80% | 8.60% | 117 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.317 | 0.324 | 0.007 | 43.5% | 0.24 | 10.0% | 74.8% | 86.9 | 5.10% | 3.00% | 156 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.282 | 0.242 | -0.04 | 54.2% | 0.173 | 8.3% | 88.2% | 85.6 | 4.70% | 3.40% | 171 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.297 | 0.340 | 0.043 | 41.1% | 0.209 | 11.3% | 81.1% | 86.1 | 8.00% | 5.30% | 163 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.286 | 0.277 | -0.009 | 39.8% | 0.226 | 11.4% | 77.3% | 85.6 | 2.10% | 1.30% | 94 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 0.280 | 0.277 | -0.003 | 44.1% | 0.196 | 4.6% | 85.7% | 89.2 | 9.50% | 6.90% | 179 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.313 | 0.100 | -0.213 | 47.6% | 0.095 | 0.0% | 81.6% | ||||
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.306 | 0.350 | 0.044 | 42.4% | 0.215 | 11.6% | 85.6% | 89.1 | 9.80% | 7.50% | 193 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.299 | 0.362 | 0.063 | 65.9% | 0.152 | 8.0% | 93.1% | 88.1 | 6.10% | 4.20% | 132 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.284 | 0.331 | 0.047 | 48.0% | 0.194 | 15.8% | 85.2% | 89.6 | 10.80% | 7.70% | 176 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.302 | 0.349 | 0.047 | 44.1% | 0.237 | 12.3% | 86.3% | 88.2 | 7.80% | 5.90% | 179 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.305 | 0.303 | -0.002 | 43.3% | 0.208 | 9.4% | 89.7% | 87.6 | 3.90% | 2.90% | 180 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.299 | 0.247 | -0.052 | 34.6% | 0.157 | 7.9% | 77.7% | 86.4 | 6.40% | 3.70% | 156 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | 0.300 | 0.318 | 0.018 | 57.4% | 0.147 | 10.5% | 90.8% | 89.2 | 5.90% | 4.00% | 68 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.303 | 0.240 | -0.063 | 41.2% | 0.235 | 11.1% | 84.7% | 85.8 | 7.70% | 4.50% | 52 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.267 | 0.234 | -0.033 | 45.2% | 0.209 | 7.7% | 88.3% | 86.8 | 6.00% | 4.80% | 116 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.284 | 0.243 | -0.041 | 53.8% | 0.135 | 2.9% | 86.5% | 87.6 | 5.70% | 3.50% | 105 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.275 | 0.266 | -0.009 | 42.1% | 0.167 | 4.3% | 84.3% | 86.6 | 6.10% | 4.20% | 115 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.287 | 0.244 | -0.043 | 66.2% | 0.143 | 6.7% | 88.4% | 83.1 | 6.00% | 4.10% | 84 |
Carlos Martinez has a decent profile, but a hard hit rate above 30% with his 50% ground ball rate. With a .304 career BABIP and not a quality defense behind him, expect that number to rise, but perhaps the career high 15.1 HR/FB will decrease as well.
Chris Archer has a nice BABIP profile and a career .289 rate, so there may be some room for a bit of improvement there.
Max Scherzer has a strong BABIP profile even with the lower popup rate so far. He’s generated more than 30 each of the last few years and because he’s such an extreme fly ball pitcher (49.7%), he’s still on pace for around 20 this season. While it’s never been this low, his BABIP has been below .270 in three of the previous four seasons, so the upward regression may not be by that much.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
As mentioned above, these are all the top priced guys. There are a few cheaper SP2 options on DraftKings that might seem reasonable if necessary, but they’re generally low upside with some risk and I’m not looking to force something that’s not there.
Value Tier One
Max Scherzer (1) has some competition in deGrom and Archer in terms of projected strikeout rate, but I’d almost be surprised if he didn’t go at least eight innings, which may still give him the highest overall strikeout total.
Jacob deGrom (2) has some HR problems, but may project for the top strikeout rate on the board in this matchup and that’s with the guy above him on the same slate.
Value Tier Two
Masahiro Tanaka (4) is one of the most dangerous, but also least expensive pitchers in consideration tonight in a spot that few people may trust him in, but the numbers tell us has been much less of concern this year. He seems to have fixed whatever issues he had last time out. He just stopped throwing fastballs altogether (16.2%) with 65% sliders and split-fingers.
Value Tier Three
Chris Archer (3) is just the third highest priced pitcher with 11 strikeouts in four of his last five. He could run into some trouble in that park, but may still be able to pay off even with some hard contact with his 21.1 K-BB%. Texas has a 79 sOPS+ (third worst) with a 35.6 K% vs power pitchers.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Carlos Martinez (5) has been pitching very well and has the upside to cover a $10K price tag, but has a tough matchup against an offense with quite a bit of LH power.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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