Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, August 26th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-27 03:08:29

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Gallardo	BAL	NYY	267.2	3.97	4.90	1.48	50.0%	15.5%	9.8%	0.87	1.48
Cessa	NYY	BAL	24.2	4.01	4.53	1.09		15.7%	6.9%	1.82	1.14
Hoffman	COL	WAS
Gonzalez	WAS	COL	312.1	4.01	3.93	1.38	46.7%	22.1%	8.6%	0.69	1.72
Dean	MIN	TOR	45	5.60	4.35	1.51		19.1%	7.7%	1.40	1.21
Liriano	TOR	MIN	318	4.13	3.92	1.36	12.5%	24.5%	10.6%	1.02	1.83
Nolasco	LAA	DET	185.2	5.53	4.33	1.42	16.7%	18.2%	5.9%	1.26	1.13
Verlander	DET	LAA	300.2	3.41	3.77	1.06	35.0%	23.9%	6.3%	1.05	0.77
Wright	BOS	KCR	219.1	3.36	4.47	1.23		19.0%	8.5%	0.82	1.14
Morgan	PHI	NYM	159.2	5.30	4.74	1.40		15.5%	5.2%	1.75	0.71
Colon	NYM	PHI	339.1	3.82	4.17	1.25	42.1%	16.4%	3.5%	1.14	1.22
Cosart	SDP	MIA	109.1	4.53	4.83	1.49	31.6%	15.7%	12.4%	0.91	2.72
Phelps	MIA	SDP	187	3.61	3.88	1.26	42.9%	22.0%	7.9%	0.82	1.21
Kluber	CLE	TEX	385	3.34	3.20	1.04	57.1%	26.7%	5.4%	0.84	1.27
Perez	TEX	CLE	230.2	4.21	4.80	1.41	37.5%	12.6%	8.6%	0.66	2.30
Vogelsong	PIT	MIL	174.1	4.34	4.58	1.43	52.6%	17.8%	9.6%	1.14	1.26
Garza	MIL	PIT	213.1	5.40	4.82	1.56	35.0%	14.6%	8.5%	1.27	1.51
Hernandez	SEA	CWS	312	3.43	3.72	1.20	81.0%	22.2%	8.1%	1.01	2.00
Sale	CWS	SEA	377.1	3.29	3.00	1.06	64.3%	28.8%	5.3%	0.98	1.12
Smyly	TBR	HOU	204	4.28	3.77	1.23	50.0%	24.8%	6.7%	1.54	0.70
Fiers	HOU	TBR	313	4.03	4.04	1.28		21.3%	7.2%	1.35	1.03
Detwiler	OAK	STL	79.2	6.89	5.32	1.92		13.3%	11.7%	1.47	1.44
Weaver	STL	OAK
Finnegan	CIN	ARI	189.2	4.13	4.87	1.33		18.8%	11.4%	1.61	1.16
Shipley	ARI	CIN	29.1	4.30	5.56	1.47		13.6%	10.4%	1.84	1.03
Montgomery	CHC	LAD	164.2	3.61	4.02	1.31		19.2%	8.8%	0.87	2.09
Norris	LAD	CHC	186	5.56	4.18	1.47	26.7%	20.3%	8.7%	1.31	1.39
De La Cruz	ATL	SFG	38.2	3.72	5.40	1.34		12.0%	8.4%	1.16	1.15
Samardzija	SFG	ATL	366.2	4.66	4.28	1.27	60.0%	17.9%	5.8%	1.23	1.12

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Corey Kluber CLE (at TEX) – The biggest knock on Kluber for the past two years has been his penchant for blow-up starts, such as the first two months of 2015, in which he gave up four or more runs five times in his first 11 starts. However, he has been nails since prior to the All-Star break, with eight consecutive quality starts, seven of which have included seven or eight strikeouts and five of which included 7.0 or more innings pitched. He’s played some soft opponents over that stretch as well as some tough ones, including a game at Baltimore and his last start versus the Blue Jays, games that helps take some of the sting out of his formidable opponent tonight. During the eight-game stretch, Kluber has a 1.78 ERA and 57:15 K:BB in 55.2 innings, including a 5-0 record and greater than 21 points on DraftKings in seven of the eight turns.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Chris Sale CHW (vs. SEA) – Sale is coming off a vintage start, with eight shutout innings against the A’s with eight strikeouts, three walks and three hits allowed over 8.0 frames. He had given up five tallies against the Marlins in his previous start, the third time in a seven game stretch that he surrendered that many runs. For all the talk about how Sale has become a pitcher that is more prone to contact at the expense of strikeouts, he still has an impressive 87 Ks over his last 12 starts covering 83.2 innings, with just 73 hits allowed over that stretch. The contact against Sale has been punishing, however, including 11 homers allowed and a 3.76 ERA over those dozen games. With the diminished chance of a dominant start and the increased odds of a clunker, rostering Sale has suddenly become a test in whether he can avoid a beating rather than rolling the dice that he puts up the most fantasy point on the day. It’s too bad, because his odds of the latter are still higher than anybody pitching today not named Kluber.

Justin Verlander DET (vs. LAA) – Verlander has been on a hell of a run since the start of July, with a composite ERA of 1.97 over a 10-game stretch that includes a 74:17 K:BB over 68.2 innings pitched. He has allowed two or fewer runs in nine of those ten outings, and the outlier also earned a quality start given that only three of the five runs were earned against KC two starts ago and he went 7.0 frames in the game. The strikeouts have been modest recently, not topping six Ks in any of his last three starts, but he also hasn’t struck out fewer than five batters in a game since his first turn of May. The relatively light K-counts figure to continue against the Angels, but rostering Verlander tonight is all about the floor, not the ceiling.

Felix Hernandez SEA (at CHW) – The walks are way too high and the velo is down, but King Felix just keeps getting it done. It took a few turns after returning from the disabled list for Hernandez to shake off the rust, but over his last three starts the King has a composite ERA of 2.08 with two or fewer runs, 6.2 or more innings and exactly eight strikeouts in each outing. The fact that he has walked nine batters over that same stretch has done little to harm the results, especially with just 14 hits (including only one home run) allowed over those 21.2 frames. He is 4-0 over his last six starts, and with the return of his strikeouts and a low enough hit rate to cancel the extra walks, Hernandez has the potential for a big fantasy score, especially against a suspect offense like that of the White Sox.

David Phelps MIA (vs. SD) – Phelps stands out in the cohort of Raise-worthy pitchers tonight, particularly following a pair of pitchers with overstuffed trophy cabinets in Felix and Verlander, but Phelps has shown enough in his past couple starts to warrant optimism. Mainly a starter last season, Phelps put up disappointing numbers in nearly every category, including a 4.50 ERA and a meager 6.2 K/9. He spent most of this year in the bullpen, but Phelps was handed the keys to the starting rotation at the start of August and has been sharp in all four of hit outings while bringing his pitch-count up to 96 throws in his last game. In the four starts, Phelps has compiled a 1.31 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 20.2 innings, and the only real knock against him has been a lax innings count as the Marlins built up his stamina. Phelps has 17 strikeouts in 11.1 innings over his last two games, and his free-swinging opponent tonight will likely contribute to another fan-filled evening, even if the crowd is light on a Friday night in Miami.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Gallardo	0.340	4.67	0.321	3.31	0.249	0.731	0.303	4.36	0.268	96.14	15.5%
Cessa	0.283	3.48	0.323	4.40	0.262	0.775	0.208	5.58	0.215	42.22	15.7%
Hoffman					0.250	0.730
Gonzalez	0.274	3.18	0.324	4.25	0.262	0.727	0.323	3.45	0.258	96.53	22.1%
Dean	0.278	7.84	0.389	4.93	0.269	0.794	0.341	4.53	0.296	0.00	19.1%
Liriano	0.296	3.68	0.317	4.26	0.259	0.743	0.300	3.99	0.238	95.73	24.5%
Nolasco	0.315	4.30	0.367	6.73	0.267	0.743	0.328	4.22	0.287	0.00	18.2%
Verlander	0.275	3.01	0.281	3.82	0.255	0.717	0.262	3.59	0.217	107.56	23.9%
Kennedy	0.335	4.21	0.320	3.71	0.273	0.774	0.278	4.65	0.24	99.04	24.1%
Wright	0.266	3.19	0.306	3.51	0.263	0.719	0.268	3.92	0.229	91.97	19.0%
Morgan	0.309	3.86	0.373	5.74	0.247	0.731	0.306	5.12	0.288	0.00	15.5%
Colon	0.321	3.67	0.313	3.98	0.243	0.689	0.304	3.91	0.274	82.75	16.4%
Cosart	0.300	4.11	0.356	4.99	0.262	0.705	0.282	4.75	0.25	88.00	15.7%
Phelps	0.326	4.16	0.270	3.20	0.238	0.684	0.297	3.56	0.242	40.62	22.0%
Kluber	0.305	3.63	0.245	3.07	0.260	0.745	0.285	2.99	0.222	100.68	26.7%
Perez	0.242	1.88	0.338	4.83	0.270	0.744	0.297	4.18	0.269	91.95	12.6%
Vogelsong	0.384	6.93	0.295	2.36	0.251	0.711	0.293	4.54	0.258	61.21	17.8%
Garza	0.374	5.54	0.334	5.27	0.259	0.725	0.313	4.86	0.287	0.00	14.6%
Hernandez	0.308	3.79	0.290	3.08	0.251	0.702	0.276	3.93	0.23	99.44	22.2%
Sale	0.267	3.30	0.281	3.29	0.259	0.740	0.296	3.05	0.225	107.33	28.8%
Smyly	0.288	4.53	0.324	4.21	0.248	0.756	0.292	4.19	0.245	95.89	24.8%
Fiers	0.298	3.90	0.341	4.13	0.245	0.719	0.292	4.32	0.252	94.44	21.3%
Detwiler	0.291	2.83	0.454	9.18	0.237	0.688	0.353	5.94	0.324	0.00	13.3%
Weaver					0.250	0.706
Finnegan	0.299	2.45	0.335	4.69	0.267	0.774	0.244	5.40	0.228	69.27	18.8%
Shipley	0.364	3.50	0.361	5.56	0.250	0.711	0.270	5.98	0.268	95.20	13.6%
Montgomery	0.312	4.69	0.309	3.16	0.247	0.715	0.286	4.11	0.243	45.73	19.2%
Norris	0.384	6.28	0.313	4.95	0.250	0.744	0.319	4.50	0.273	0.00	20.3%
De La Cruz	0.326	3.93	0.325	3.54	0.264	0.739	0.260	4.96	0.25	46.77	12.0%
Samardzija	0.352	5.78	0.296	3.69	0.252	0.683	0.293	4.25	0.261	102.45	17.9%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Jeff Samardzija SF (vs. ATL) – The Shark is on a solid three-game run, with a 2.41 ERA and 15:5 K:BB over 18.2 innings, though his case has been aided by facing disappointing offenses in New York, Miami and Pittsburgh, taking some of the shine off his performance. That said, it’s a vast improvement over the previous two months, as in his previous eight games Samardzija coughed up four or more runs seven times despite facing a string of ho-hum lineups. His lofty ranking tonight once again has to do more with his opponent than any belief that Samardzija has turned a corner, and if he weren’t facing the Braves then the right-hander would be further down the list.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. COL) – Gio rebounded from a horrific month of June to have a strong July, coming within one out of posting five straight quality starts, though his strikeouts were lacking – just 18 Ks in 30.0 innings – and he walked multiple batters in each turn.Things have reverted back over the last three starts, with a pair of four-run outings sandwiched around a rain-shortened effort in Colorado, in which Mother Nature probably saved Gonzalez from a further bloated ERA. Having a rough day in Coors would be understandable, but Gio followed that up with four runs and nine baserunners allowed to the Braves in just 5.2 innings, despite the fact that Atlanta struggles against southpaws. He’s a wild card with limited upside but a downside that can sink a DFS battleship.

Steven Wright BOS (vs. KC) – Wright is returning from the DL after a jammed shoulder that he suffered on the basepaths knocked him out of action for a few weeks. He threw a shutout against the Dodgers in his last start, back on August 5, with nine strikeouts and just four baserunners, but prior to that outing Wright had spent the month of July essentially unraveling what had been a terrific start to the season. In the seven starts preceding the shutout, Wright had pitched to a 6.18 ERA that would have been worse if not for seven unearned runs. The injury, suffered while pinch-running, was to Wright’s throwing shoulder, and though knuckleballers put less stress on their joints and can seemingly pitch forever, the Red Sox might be cautious with Wright in his first start back in action to ensure that his right shoulder is sound.

Francisco Liriano TOR (vs. MIN) – His season has been horrific, but Liriano hasn’t been half bad since coming over to Toronto at the trade deadline, with only one rough start in his three turns with the Canadian club. He has also kept the walks within reasonable means, giving away two free pases in each of his last three games, which for Liriano is a major improvement. He’s probably biding his time before the next blowup, which come today in Toronto.

Jeff Hoffman COL (at WAS) – This is Hoffman’s first real start, at least from an evaluation standpoint, because getting bombed for seven runs in 4.0 innings – as Hoffman did in his debut last weekend – is pretty much par for the course when playing at Coors Field. He brings a four-pitch repertoire to the hill, including a 94-96 mph fastball, a changeups and a pair of breaking pitches, and the secondaries will hopefully have more life at sea level.

Drew Smyly TB (at HOU)

Mike Montgomery CHC (at LAD)

Ryan Vogelsong PIT (at MIL)

Ian Kennedy KC (at BOS)

Mike Fiers HOU (vs. TB)

Braden Shipley ARI (vs. CIN)

Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. PHI)

Brandon Finnegan CIN (at ARI)

Martin Perez TEX (vs. CLE)

Yovani Gallardo BAL (at NYY)

Jarred Cosart SD (at MIA)

Joel De La Cruz ATL (at SF)