Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, July 22nd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-07-23 03:01:15

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Bauer	CLE	BAL	283	4.10	4.17	1.28	38.5%	22.4%	9.8%	0.99	1.16
Bundy	BAL	CLE	41.1	3.70	4.36	1.60		19.5%	8.1%	1.31	0.63
Eflin	PHI	PIT	41.1	4.14	5.17	1.21		11.5%	4.6%	1.31	0.96
Cole	PIT	PHI	280.1	2.73	3.51	1.16	28.6%	23.0%	5.8%	0.45	1.56
Perdomo	SDP	WAS	69.2	7.36	4.01	1.95		16.8%	7.8%	1.42	2.79
Roark	WAS	SDP	235.2	3.55	4.01	1.23	52.6%	18.1%	6.4%	0.92	1.77
Bumgarner	SFG	NYY	354	2.62	3.08	1.00	47.6%	27.7%	5.1%	0.89	1.12
Tanaka	NYY	SFG	277	3.35	3.56	1.04	66.7%	21.6%	4.5%	1.17	1.52
Estrada	TOR	SEA	285.1	3.06	4.48	1.02	27.8%	20.3%	8.3%	1.20	0.64
Bradley	ARI	CIN	105.2	4.85	4.68	1.49		19.7%	11.8%	1.11	1.70
Straily	CIN	ARI	125	4.25	4.88	1.22	14.3%	18.7%	10.3%	1.08	0.82
Gibson	MIN	BOS	258	4.15	4.24	1.34	52.6%	17.2%	8.1%	0.87	2.00
Rodriguez	BOS	MIN	158	4.61	4.48	1.35		17.5%	7.5%	1.31	1.08
Verrett	NYM	MIA	109.2	3.94	4.57	1.29		17.4%	9.3%	1.31	1.30
Conley	MIA	NYM	171.2	3.67	4.17	1.29		22.2%	8.8%	0.89	0.95
Hammel	CHC	MIL	273	3.59	3.73	1.14	47.4%	23.0%	6.3%	1.22	1.09
Nelson	MIL	CHC	291.1	3.83	4.42	1.32		18.6%	9.3%	0.93	1.63
Fulmer	DET	CWS	84.2	2.13	3.99	1.07		22.5%	8.2%	0.64	1.59
Turner	CWS	DET
Shoemaker	LAA	HOU	241.1	4.29	3.79	1.26	44.4%	22.2%	5.6%	1.38	0.96
McCullers	HOU	LAA	188	3.35	3.69	1.34		26.2%	10.2%	0.57	1.70
McCarthy	LAD	STL	39	4.15	2.52	1.03	35.0%	33.6%	5.3%	2.31	1.03
Wacha	STL	LAD	290.2	3.78	4.10	1.29	53.3%	20.2%	7.8%	0.90	1.48
Darvish	TEX	KCR	20	3.15	3.42	1.20	55.6%	33.3%	11.9%	0.45	1.50
Duffy	KCR	TEX	224.2	3.77	4.02	1.26	57.1%	21.6%	7.6%	1.08	0.96
Teheran	ATL	COL	326.1	3.56	4.08	1.17	70.0%	21.2%	7.4%	1.19	1.04
Gray	COL	ATL	136.1	4.69	3.70	1.31		24.6%	7.9%	1.06	1.50
Odorizzi	TBR	OAK	280	3.76	3.98	1.20	36.8%	21.9%	7.0%	1.16	0.90
Manaea	OAK	TBR	72	5.13	4.34	1.33		19.1%	6.5%	1.38	1.03

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Madison Bumgarner SF (at NYY) – Bummer has given up four earned runs three different times this season (that’s the most for the southpaw), and two of those games have come in his last four outings, including his last start against the Padres. He has gone 6.0 or more innings in 17 straight starts, striking out eight or more batters in nine of those turns, and just two starts ago he came within two baserunners of perfection and within one batter of facing the minimum, striking out 14 Diamondbacks on his way to the dominant shutout. Despite the recent hiccups against the Padres and Athletics, two offenses that are less than formidable, Bummer earns the top spot on today’s rankings by a pretty comfortable margin. The floor is excessively high and he carries vaulted ceilings of potential performance. He has given up more than seven hits in a game just once, and that was back in April, and he hasn’t walked more than two batters since mid-May, so the odds of a disaster start are especially low.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Yu Darvish TEX (at KC) – Yup, I’m already prepared to anoint Darvish as the top Raise candidate on the board. I know that he only went 4.1 innings last game, his first since his re-return from the disabled list, but he was facing the powerful-yet-patient Cubs and threw 90 pitches in the contest. It was still a modest pitch count, to be sure, but it was higher than any of his first three starts and Darvish could be extended near the century mark for tonight’s outing. Nine of the 13 outs that he registered last game were via the strikeout and he talked on four walks, with deep counts that raised the pitch count against a selective offense. The Royals are the exact opposite – a low-strikeout team that rarely walks – and Darvish could go six-to-seven innings if the balls in play land his way. Maybe I’m optimistic, but I think that Darvish could be a second-half monster and tonight’s start could ignite the re-awakening.

Michael Fulmer DET (at CHW) – The rolling Tiger gathers no moss. Fulmer allowed two earned runs to the Royals over 8.0 innings in his last start, the most earnies that had been hung on Fulmer in the past ten starts, and he has a 0.83 ERA in 65.1 combined innings over that stretch. The strikeouts have been painfully inconsistent during his streak of ridiculous run prevention; he’s had three or fewer Ks in four of the ten starts yet more eight strikeouts in three others. The height of Fulmer’s ceiling is dependent on whether he has one of the good games or one of the bad ones in terms of strikeouts.

Danny Duffy KC (vs. TEX) – Duffy’s conversion from the bullpen to the rotation is complete, with four straight quality starts and five consecutive games with more than 100 pitches. He has also struck out seven or eight batters in each of his last five turns, and his upside in the K department is legitimately represented by a K rate that has shot up from the 6.8 K/9 of 2014-15 to his 10.3 K/9 of this season, meanwhile the walks have been trimmed from 3.3 BB/9 over the past two seasons to his 2016 walk rate of 1.8 BB/9. As a result, his K-to-walk ratio has nearly tripled, and his 80:13 K:BB over 70.0 innings as a starter this season indicates that his numbers are not a mirage of the bullpen.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (vs. SF) – Tanaka has traded implosions with quality starts over his last five turns, twice giving up at least six runs and only once surrendering less than three, knocking the shine off of some of his consistency. He is coming off a great start against Boston, allowing just one run and four baserunners while gathering seven strikeouts in 6.0 frames, with the only run coming on a solo homer to Dustin Pedroia in the first inning. The lack of strikeouts limits his upside, as Tanaka has yet to top seven Ks in any of his 19 starts, so he will have to maintain a clean scoreboard in order to have a big day on DFS.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Bauer	0.305	3.92	0.300	4.28	0.263	0.775	0.279	4.01	0.23	0.00	22.4%
Bundy	0.344	3.22	0.369	4.26	0.255	0.742	0.360	4.61	0.305	0.01	19.5%
Eflin	0.304	3.43	0.328	4.87	0.262	0.730	0.257	4.65	0.253	0.02	11.5%
Cole	0.287	2.37	0.279	3.05	0.244	0.686	0.313	2.75	0.245	0.01	23.0%
Perdomo	0.396	7.75	0.400	7.00	0.246	0.720	0.398	4.83	0.346	0.00	16.8%
Roark	0.312	3.09	0.298	3.96	0.239	0.683	0.293	3.90	0.255	0.00	18.1%
Bumgarner	0.228	2.45	0.271	2.65	0.257	0.733	0.273	2.93	0.212	0.01	27.7%
Tanaka	0.285	3.55	0.279	3.17	0.265	0.741	0.258	3.68	0.225	0.01	21.6%
Paxton	0.409	5.64	0.305	3.86	0.270	0.795	0.336	3.84	0.283	0.01	19.0%
Estrada	0.276	3.20	0.261	2.89	0.250	0.742	0.208	4.30	0.191	0.00	20.3%
Bradley	0.337	3.71	0.329	6.02	0.245	0.699	0.293	4.65	0.249	0.00	19.7%
Straily	0.311	5.16	0.282	3.22	0.265	0.741	0.238	4.61	0.212	0.01	18.7%
Gibson	0.322	4.60	0.302	3.69	0.273	0.772	0.295	4.07	0.257	0.00	17.2%
Rodriguez	0.363	5.05	0.315	4.49	0.257	0.742	0.287	4.56	0.259	0.01	17.5%
Verrett	0.307	3.74	0.329	4.14	0.262	0.703	0.258	4.87	0.237	0.00	17.4%
Conley	0.328	4.15	0.304	3.55	0.243	0.726	0.295	3.87	0.24	0.01	22.2%
Hammel	0.324	3.69	0.284	3.52	0.253	0.708	0.272	3.93	0.231	0.00	23.0%
Nelson	0.355	5.01	0.276	2.89	0.247	0.739	0.283	4.31	0.243	0.00	18.6%
Fulmer	0.257	1.36	0.266	2.80	0.250	0.701	0.251	3.39	0.203	0.02	22.5%
Turner					0.268	0.743
Shoemaker	0.305	4.47	0.337	4.09	0.250	0.750	0.304	4.05	0.259	0.01	22.2%
McCullers	0.289	3.26	0.319	3.45	0.256	0.719	0.322	3.12	0.239	0.01	26.2%
McCarthy	0.308	3.12	0.314	4.98	0.264	0.763	0.265	4.48	0.222	0.05	33.6%
Wacha	0.286	3.41	0.319	4.06	0.247	0.732	0.292	3.78	0.246	0.00	20.2%
Darvish					0.267	0.728	0.289	2.50	0.189	0.08	33.3%
Duffy	0.245	2.12	0.334	4.20	0.263	0.747	0.298	4.05	0.249	0.00	21.6%
Teheran	0.351	4.58	0.248	2.69	0.271	0.780	0.266	4.17	0.231	0.00	21.2%
Gray	0.300	3.93	0.337	5.40	0.250	0.673	0.317	3.81	0.251	0.01	24.6%
Odorizzi	0.277	3.03	0.332	4.52	0.250	0.703	0.278	3.89	0.237	0.00	21.9%
Manaea	0.250	2.81	0.350	5.79	0.263	0.771	0.3	4.42	0.265	0.00	19.1%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Gerrit Cole PIT (vs. PHI) – He’s one of the biggest question marks in baseball right now. Cole was already trudging through a down season in terms of just about every metric aside from ERA, but then he went on the disabled list for five weeks and his first start back was less than encouraging: five runs (four earned) and nine baserunners over 4.0 innings against the Nats. He gets an easier opponent this time around and will likely be allowed to go deeper than the 80 pitches of his last outing, while the cheap price tag ($7400 on DraftKings) and excellent track record will likely make him a popular selection. Keep in mind, however, that Cole hasn’t struck out more than five batters in any of his last six starts, kicked off by the zero-strikeout outing (over 7.0 innings) back on May 20. A player with Cole’s talent can shake out of a slump at any time, but the longer we go since his last strong outing and the lighter the confidence weighs in rostering the right-hander.

Trevor Bauer CLE (at BAL) – This is a hit-or-miss proposition on both sides. Bauer could do anything from give up five runs over six innings (which he did against the Yankees two starts ago) to bust a 10-K complete game (which he did against the Rays one month ago) and I wouldn’t be surprised. He faced the Orioles once earlier this season, giving up three runs on nine hits and two walks over 6.0 frames in one of the uglier “quality” starts you’ll see, though that game was nearly two months ago and the Baltimore offense is currently in a funk. I’m going to lean toward “hit” on the hit-or-miss spectrum.

Lance McCullers HOU (vs. LAA) – McCullers is all about the strikeout upside, with 80 Ks in just 62.1 innings this year (11.6 K/9, 28.9 percent), but his penchant for walks (5.5 BB/9, 13.7 percent) puts him in dangerous situations and shortens his expected innings count on a per-game basis. He’s similar to Bauer in terms of upside and is more likely to post the big K count, but the walks are getting out of hand – McCullers has given away three or more free passes in 10 of his 11 starts this season.

Matt Shoemaker LAA (at HOU) – I could use the same opening line for Shoemaker as I used for McCullers, but in this case the extremes might reach even further. Shoemaker is coming off a start in which he struck out 13 batters in a shutout of the White Sox, a game that earned him 51.65 points on DraftKings, but those 13 Ks matched the baker’s dozen that he had collected over the previous three games combined. The Astros lead the American League in batter strikeouts, adding fuel to the fire of Shoemaker having big games back-to-back.

Marco Estrada TOR (vs. SEA) – Pitchers with a .197 BABiP are supposed to regress toward the mean (league average is a .300 BABiP), but Estrada belongs in his own category; he might regress, but not toward the league average. Estrada had a .217 BABiP last year and has allowed a BABiP of .264 or lower in each of the last four seasons (including this one). He’s allowed five or fewer hits in 14 of his 16 starts this season, including the last 13 turns in a row – he allowed two hits over 5.0 innings to the Red Sox, limited the Orioles to four hits over 6.0 and even held the Rockies to five hits over six in Colorado. The projection systems don’t typically like him given the discrepancy between peripherals and ERA as well as the unpredictability of hit rate, but Estrada is an outlier that deserves consideration.

Michael Wacha STL (vs. LAD) – When looking at the component stats, the difference between Wacha this year and last – aside from the extra run on his ERA – is an escalated hit rate that has risen from 8.0 to 9.6 H/9. The strikeouts, walks and homers allowed are within expectation when compared to last season, but Wacha suffers from the dual-pronged attack of hit-based decline and unmet expectations that may have been unrealistic in the first place. Consider his FIP, which was higher last season at 3.87 than the 3.63 that it is in 2016.

Adam Conley MIA (vs. NYM)

Brandon McCarthy LAD (at STL)

Tanner Roark WAS (vs. SD)

Jake Odorizzi TB (at OAK)

Jason Hammel CHC (at MIL)

Julio Teheran ATL (at COL)

Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. CHC)

Archie Bradley ARI (at CIN)

Sean Manaea OAK (vs. TB)

James Paxton SEA (at TOR)

Dan Straily CIN (vs. ARI)

Dylan Bundy BAL (vs. CLE)