Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, May 13th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-05-14 03:34:39

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Liriano	PIT	CHC	221.2	3.41	3.48	1.23	12.5%	26.3%	9.6%	0.81	1.93
Hammel	CHC	PIT	204.2	3.43	3.60	1.16	47.4%	23.6%	6.4%	1.06	1.06
Finnegan	CIN	PHI	87	3.83	4.31	1.25		19.7%	10.5%	1.66	1.52
Hellickson	PHI	CIN	182.2	4.68	4.05	1.34		19.9%	6.8%	1.53	1.14
Sale	CWS	NYY	259	3.09	2.66	1.03	64.3%	30.8%	5.0%	0.90	1.19
Severino	NYY	CWS	94.2	3.99	3.79	1.30		20.5%	7.1%	1.52	1.80
Verlander	DET	BAL	175	3.86	3.94	1.14	35.0%	21.8%	6.6%	1.03	0.76
Tillman	BAL	DET	211.1	4.64	4.55	1.35	42.9%	17.9%	8.9%	0.89	1.17
Koehler	MIA	WAS	216.2	4.32	4.72	1.40	52.6%	17.2%	9.9%	1.04	1.24
Gonzalez	WAS	MIA	212.2	3.51	3.85	1.36	46.7%	21.7%	8.7%	0.42	1.81
McCullers	HOU	BOS	125.2	3.22	3.57	1.19		24.8%	8.3%	0.72	1.46
Wright	BOS	HOU	114	3.16	4.40	1.18		19.0%	9.1%	1.11	1.04
Nolasco	MIN	CLE	75.2	5.71	3.76	1.43	16.7%	21.0%	5.8%	0.95	1.27
Tomlin	CLE	MIN	94.2	3.23	3.64	0.92	23.1%	20.7%	2.7%	1.62	0.87
Hill	OAK	TBR	66.2	2.03	2.94	0.95		30.9%	7.9%	0.54	1.38
Odorizzi	TBR	OAK	210	3.30	3.88	1.15	36.8%	21.4%	6.3%	0.90	0.91
Dickey	TOR	TEX	254.1	4.10	4.74	1.24	47.6%	14.5%	7.2%	1.06	1.18
Perez	TEX	TOR	119.2	4.14	4.46	1.40	37.5%	14.4%	9.3%	0.45	2.50
Friedrich	SDP	MIL	58.1	5.25	4.20	1.71		16.7%	9.3%	0.77	1.61
Guerra	MIL	SDP	16	6.19	4.12	1.38		18.5%	6.2%	1.13	1.00
Teheran	ATL	KCR	242	3.94	4.19	1.29	70.0%	20.6%	8.6%	1.19	1.07
Volquez	KCR	ATL	242	3.61	4.30	1.33	50.0%	18.5%	8.4%	0.74	1.43
Harvey	NYM	COL	229.1	3.02	3.39	1.10		24.0%	5.4%	0.86	1.24
Gray	COL	NYM	62.1	5.49	3.46	1.49		24.7%	7.3%	0.87	1.52
Samardzija	SFG	ARI	262.1	4.63	4.07	1.27	60.0%	18.8%	5.6%	1.13	1.08
Miller	ARI	SFG	234.2	3.57	4.40	1.31	21.1%	19.1%	9.4%	0.77	1.32
Tropeano	LAA	SEA	69.1	3.76	3.87	1.47		24.3%	8.9%	1.04	0.78
Karns	SEA	LAA	181.2	3.62	3.88	1.29		23.9%	9.3%	1.19	1.16
Wacha	STL	LAD	224.2	3.32	4.00	1.22	53.3%	20.3%	7.7%	0.92	1.44
Stripling	LAD	STL	33	3.82	4.10	1.18		20.4%	8.8%	0.27	1.63

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Chris Sale CHW (at NYY) – Sale’s new, pitch-efficient approach is working out quite nicely thus far. Sure, his strikeouts are off-pace from the ridiculous strikeout rate of 10.3 K/9 over the past six seasons, but his 1.79 ERA and 0.78 WHIP are a testament to his ability to stifle bats through weak contact. For his troubles, Sale is still strong in the K department, with 47 punchouts in 50.1 innings so far in 2016. Still a workhorse, Sale has gone at least 100 pitches in all seven of his turns, pitching at least seven full frames in six of them. He has allowed fewer than three runs in each starts this season, and he didn’t even allowed as many as two runs in a game during the five start stretch from April 15 to May 1. He has earned at least 18 points on DraftKings in each of his starts, and that strong run is unlikely to be disrupted in today’s matchup with the Yankees.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Rich Hill OAK (at TB) – Hill was a mess in spring training and it took him a little while to get going in 2016, and things looked so bad that it appeared Hill was a lost cause who was parlaying one good month from September ’15 into a lucrative payday, But the 36-year-old southpaw has tossed six straight games with less than four runs allowed in each turn, and if we excuse his 4.1-inning, three-run stont against the Royals then we’re talking about a pitcher who hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his turns this season. The strikeout rate obviously stands out, with a penchant for 10-K ballgames and DK scores near 30 points for a contest. Hill will have his hands full today against a Rays offense that ruins southpaws, but Hill might still be worth the gamble considering the massive gap between the no.‘s 1 and 2 starting pitchers on today’s slate.

Michael Wacha STL (at LAD) – From the standpoint of peripheral stats, Wacha has been exceptionally consistent over the past three seasons. His K rates read 7.9-7.6-7.9 K/9 and his walk rate has registered at 2.9-2.9-2.8 BB/9 over the past three seasons, and during that stretch his ERA tally for each campaign has stood between this year’s 3.12 mark and the 3.38 ERA of last season. He threw five quality starts in a row, book-ended by four-run outings that were disappointing though not disastrous, and he has thrown 6.0 or more innings in each of his last six turns. Wacha is a high-floor, low-ceiling type of pitcher who is best rostered as a secure tandem to a more volatile hurler in two-pitcher formats.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. MIA) – A complete lack of strikeouts in his last two turns has soured Gio’s stock, but keep in mind that he had a K-per-inning over 25.1 April frames and has logged 5.2 innings or more in every start. Gonzalez had a run of five consecutive quality starts to open the campaign, but his last turn saw five opposing runners cross the plate on his watch. Most striking about the early returns on Gio’s 2016 season is the reduction in walks, as the pitcher who posted a career rate of 3.9 BB/9 prior to this season has limited the free passes this year to the tune of just 10 walks in 37.0 innings (2.4 BB/9).

Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. OAK) – The performance has been inconsistent, particularly early in the season when he alternated23-point gems on DraftKings with clunkers that earned less than three points apiece. He punched out 10 hitters in his opening salvo for 2016 after not turning the double-digit K trick in any of his 28 starts last season, and Odorizzi has struck out six batters or fewer in the six starts since he whiffed 10 Blue Jays, so keep in mind that strikeouts aren’t really Odorizzi’s game. What he does is generally keep runs off the scoreboard, as evidenced by his 3.10 ERA this season and three-game run with just four total runs allowed through 18.0 innings (an ERA of 2.00), and the run prevention earns is extra impressive that he has already faced Toronto and Baltimore twice apiece, as well as the juggernaut offense of the Boston Red Sox.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Liriano	0.258	2.96	0.294	3.54	0.238	0.699	0.289	3.40	0.221	0.01	26.3%
Hammel	0.306	2.62	0.297	4.06	0.265	0.737	0.283	3.60	0.233	0.01	23.6%
Finnegan	0.344	4.15	0.303	3.72	0.251	0.680	0.226	5.27	0.213	0.01	19.7%
Hellickson	0.353	4.44	0.333	4.85	0.246	0.703	0.293	4.60	0.26	0.01	19.9%
Sale	0.262	2.59	0.273	3.19	0.255	0.738	0.299	2.74	0.219	0.01	30.8%
Severino	0.310	2.82	0.350	5.36	0.252	0.702	0.294	4.55	0.26	0.01	20.5%
Verlander	0.269	2.99	0.315	4.85	0.259	0.766	0.274	3.71	0.232	0.01	21.8%
Tillman	0.310	3.31	0.336	5.98	0.267	0.734	0.295	4.14	0.255	0.00	17.9%
Koehler	0.340	4.53	0.314	4.11	0.245	0.712	0.289	4.53	0.255	0.00	17.2%
Gonzalez	0.276	3.10	0.309	3.64	0.275	0.738	0.323	3.07	0.254	0.01	21.7%
McCullers	0.260	3.08	0.317	3.38	0.269	0.755	0.288	3.26	0.225	0.01	24.8%
Wright	0.282	3.35	0.294	3.00	0.245	0.744	0.241	4.37	0.215	0.01	19.0%
Nolasco	0.330	5.97	0.345	5.49	0.252	0.721	0.349	3.45	0.288	0.00	21.0%
Tomlin	0.228	1.94	0.338	4.47	0.241	0.694	0.229	4.26	0.217	0.01	20.7%
Hill	0.231	2.45	0.247	1.90	0.258	0.760	0.253	2.73	0.178	0.03	30.9%
Odorizzi	0.265	2.77	0.327	3.90	0.250	0.702	0.278	3.49	0.234	0.01	21.4%
Dickey	0.304	3.86	0.324	4.32	0.258	0.737	0.266	4.47	0.247	0.00	14.5%
Perez	0.243	2.05	0.333	4.73	0.271	0.799	0.302	3.83	0.263	0.01	14.4%
Friedrich	0.292	3.07	0.409	7.45	0.235	0.683	0.361	4.04	0.307	0.00	16.7%
Guerra			0.343	6.35	0.241	0.680	0.340	3.97	0.295	0.00	18.5%
Teheran	0.383	5.50	0.253	2.69	0.265	0.730	0.284	4.31	0.244	0.01	20.6%
Volquez	0.299	3.12	0.310	4.10	0.255	0.676	0.295	3.80	0.25	0.00	18.5%
Harvey	0.314	3.56	0.244	2.52	0.269	0.771	0.287	3.16	0.231	0.01	24.0%
Gray	0.319	3.86	0.364	7.03	0.244	0.718	0.374	3.24	0.289	0.00	24.7%
Samardzija	0.344	5.43	0.298	3.88	0.266	0.744	0.300	4.03	0.262	0.00	18.8%
Miller	0.323	3.48	0.280	3.64	0.265	0.742	0.282	3.90	0.238	0.00	19.1%
Tropeano	0.343	2.57	0.324	4.98	0.242	0.720	0.344	3.64	0.271	0.02	24.3%
Karns	0.303	2.77	0.313	4.59	0.248	0.703	0.287	4.08	0.236	0.01	23.9%
Wacha	0.279	3.30	0.310	3.34	0.244	0.722	0.278	3.81	0.236	0.01	20.3%
Stripling	0.229	1.56	0.315	6.32	0.264	0.755	0.271	2.87	0.216	0.03	20.4%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Julio Teheran ATL (at KC) – Teheran had a disaster start to the 2016 season, as an inability to keep his own delivery under control resulted in copious amounts of missed targets and wild pitches that flew to the backstop. His ERA stood at 6.35 after three turns, but since Teheran has done his best to resurrect his pitching line and re-establish himself as a force to be reckoned with in the Atlanta rotation. Teheran has a 1.46 ERA over his last four starts, with 25 strikeouts against six walks and just one homer allowed despite facing a list of high-powered offenses that included the Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Given the recent track record, his facing the Royals shouldn’t be seen as too of a strike against Teheran today.

Jeff Samardzija SF (at ARI) – The velocity that disappeared last season is still missing in action, but Samardzija is doing a better job of using his secondaries to keep hitters off-balance while using his new, pitcher-friendly home ballpark to take advantage of balls in play. He leaves the cozy confines of ATT Park for today’s matchup at Chase Field, facing an Arizona offense that hits just as well on the road as it does at home, where Samardzija hope to continue his string of pitching 7.2 or more innings yet allowing less than three runs in four of his last six starts.

Lance McCullers HOU (at BOS) – The right-hander draws an exceedingly difficult assignment in his first start of 2016. He was a chic sleeper pick prior to the seasonas a rookie season with more than a K-per-inning and three strikeouts for every walk raised expectations. But a shoulder ailment cropped up in spring, took the air out of his hype balloon and now managers are left with their fingers crossed hoping that the issue won’t be a long-term problem. A pitcher’s shoulder can be slow to heal, and it shouldn’t be surprising if we see a reduction in velocity or an abbreviated outing as the Astros ease McCullers back into action.

Nate Karns SEA (vs. LAA) – Strikeouts have never been the problem with Karns, who owns a career rate of 9.1 K/9 and has punched out 38 batters in 34.2 innings this season, but his struggles with containing the free pass only seem to get worse. He has now given away 15 walks this year, but there could be a light at the end of the tunnel with just three walks given up over his last two starts and 12.1 innings pitched. He has spun three quality starts in a row, and the recent struggles of the Angels – a .230 wOBA and meager .502 OPS over the last seven games – ups the ante on Karns’ likely performance in today’s contest.

Steven Wright BOS (vs. HOU) – Knuckleball pitchers are completely unpredictable, and Wright is no exception. His 2016 campaign has been an unquestioned success, with six consecutive starts of six or more innings pitched yet two or fewer runs allowed, but his train could get derailed at any moment. His lack of control over the wayward knuckler is exemplified by his walking three or more batters in four of his six starts, and though his K rate – 38 Ks in 41.1 innings – is high for a pitcher with an 85-mph fastball, and he is facing an Astros team that will likely help that rate to climb, there is no telling when the butterfly will stop dancing and Wright will be left with a sore neck from watching rockets tattoo the Green Monster.

Edinson Volquez KC (vs. ATL) – Volquez was surprisingly effective through his first four starts, carrying a 1.09 ERA into his game against the Angels, but an eight-spot tarnished his stat record and Volquez was giving up five runs and 11 baserunners (including four walks) over 4.1 innings in his last start. He gets a soft landing today against the Braves, but Volquez is at risk of self-inflicted implosion every time that he takes the mound.

Matt Harvey NYM (at COL) – Just when it looked like Harvey might be getting back on track, he shuttled to the Mile High city, where ERA’s soar and pitcher hot streaks go to die. We’ll give him a mulligan for this start when breaking Harvey down next week.

Luis Severino NYY (vs. CHW)

Josh Tomlin CLE (vs. MIN)

Ross Stripling LAD (vs. STL)

Nick Tropeano LAA (at SEA)

Justin Verlander DET (at BAL)

Shelby Miller ARI (vs. SF)

Chris Tillman BAL (vs. DET)

Martin Perez TEX (vs. TOR)

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. CIN)

Brandon Finnegan CIN (at PHI)

Junior Guerra MIL (vs. SD)

Ricky Nolasco MIN (at CLE)