Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, May 20th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-05-21 02:48:18

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Wisler	ATL	PHI	157.2	4.22	4.85	1.31		15.5%	7.6%	1.20	0.77
Nola	PHI	ATL	130.2	3.31	3.22	1.06		24.2%	5.4%	0.96	1.72
Butler	COL	PIT	98.1	5.67	5.02	1.69		13.4%	10.1%	1.46	1.74
Cole	PIT	COL	249.1	2.67	3.32	1.10	28.6%	24.1%	5.6%	0.47	1.53
Andriese	TBR	DET	81.2	3.42	4.12	1.18		17.0%	6.3%	0.88	1.33
Sanchez	DET	TBR	199.2	5.18	4.19	1.35	41.2%	20.8%	8.6%	1.67	1.00
Kluber	CLE	BOS	274.1	3.64	3.06	1.07	57.1%	27.1%	5.3%	0.85	1.24
Buchholz	BOS	CLE	159	4.08	3.84	1.28	33.3%	20.8%	6.4%	0.79	1.34
Peralta	MIL	NYM	149.1	5.42	4.83	1.66	47.4%	12.6%	8.2%	1.27	1.76
Matz	NYM	MIL	70.1	2.56	3.35	1.21		23.6%	6.2%	0.77	1.81
Iwakuma	SEA	CIN	179	3.77	3.62	1.16	60.0%	20.5%	4.8%	1.16	1.49
Straily	CIN	SEA	58	3.72	4.58	1.28	14.3%	20.0%	11.2%	1.09	0.97
Roark	WAS	MIA	160.1	3.99	4.07	1.29	52.6%	17.1%	6.8%	1.07	1.68
Nicolino	MIA	WAS	98	3.95	5.82	1.27		6.7%	7.7%	0.83	1.25
Gee	KCR	CWS	65.2	4.80	4.35	1.54	50.0%	15.7%	7.5%	1.23	1.57
Quintana	CWS	KCR	259	2.99	3.61	1.21	50.0%	21.1%	5.2%	0.59	1.48
Lewis	TEX	HOU	256.2	4.35	4.40	1.22	11.8%	16.8%	5.1%	1.26	0.78
McCullers	HOU	TEX	130.1	3.45	3.62	1.22		24.5%	8.5%	0.69	1.50
Sanchez	TOR	MIN	144.1	3.24	4.19	1.26		17.8%	10.9%	0.81	2.87
Duffey	MIN	TOR	82.1	2.73	3.72	1.25		22.2%	7.3%	0.66	1.52
Corbin	ARI	STL	135	3.80	3.76	1.29		19.4%	5.3%	1.20	1.61
Martinez	STL	ARI	222.2	3.03	3.57	1.24		23.3%	8.3%	0.73	2.01
Sabathia	NYY	OAK	195.2	4.60	4.18	1.44	25.0%	18.6%	7.4%	1.33	1.42
Gray	OAK	NYY	252.2	3.28	3.90	1.16	60.0%	20.1%	7.7%	0.89	1.73
Wright	BAL	LAA	81	5.67	4.87	1.47		14.9%	8.1%	1.44	1.01
Santiago	LAA	BAL	230.2	3.55	4.45	1.24	16.7%	20.5%	8.9%	1.40	0.63
Arrieta	CHC	SFG	285	1.67	2.84	0.86	50.0%	27.0%	6.1%	0.38	2.45
Peavy	SFG	CHC	150.2	4.60	4.33	1.29	42.1%	17.9%	6.3%	1.13	0.88
Kazmir	LAD	SDP	229	3.46	4.05	1.22	63.2%	20.6%	7.5%	1.18	1.14
Friedrich	SDP	LAD	64.1	4.90	4.42	1.71		16.5%	10.4%	0.70	1.60

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jake Arrieta CHC (at SF) – His 1.29 ERA leads the majors, and since the start of 2015, Arrieta has posted a ridiculous 1.67 mark over 41 starts covering 285.0 innings pitched. He hasn’t given up more than three runs in any game since June of last season. The only knock against him this year was a modest K count that had yet to exceed eight strikeouts in a single game, but then he went ahead and whiffed 11 Pirates over 8.0 innings of work in his last turn. The walks have been a bit on the high side recently, with 16 walks over his last five games and four free passes in each of three of those contests; the issue is likely to continue in tonight’s ballgame versus a Giants lineup that has collected 166 walks as a team this season, fourth-highest total in the majors.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Gerrit Cole PIT (vs. COL) – Cole had a rough outing against the Cubs a couple starts ago, with five earned runs over 4.2 innings, but outside of that one outing he has been nearly unstoppable.. In his other six starts, Cole has a 2.21 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, including a quality start in the thin air of Colorado. He is priced very low on DraftKings today ($8700), providing a strong profit opportunity, considering that I have Cole as the no. 2 ranked pitcher on today’s sale but that his price tag is just the eight-highest salary on DK. Considering that Cole handled the Rockies at altitude, he should have no problem silencing their bats at sea level.

Jose Quintana CHW (vs. KC) – Quintana has been one the toughest pitchers to score against his season, as the lefty carries a 1.54 ERA that’s top in the American League to go with a 0.99 WHIP and 47 strikeouts in 52.2 innings of work. He has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start this season, but despite that consistency his upside is limited. Quintana struck out 10 Blue Jays a few starts ago and whiffed seven A’s in his first start of the year, but he has otherwise failed to top a half-dozen strikeouts and has actually been capped at 5 Ks in five of his eight starts. The other shoe will drop on his performance soon, and the contact-heavy offense of the Royals might be the ones to direct that regression.

Aaron Nola PHI (vs. ATL) – Nola has quietly been a revelation for the Phillies this season, with 2.89 ERA, 0.85 WHI, 58 strikeouts and just nine walks allowed in 53.0 innings this season. He’s only surrendered three home runs total and none since April 16, and over his last five starts Nola has compiled a tiny 1.32 ERA, 35 strikeouts and six walks over 34.0 frames, and his ability to go deep into ballgames is exemplified by the fact that Nola has pitched 7.0 innings in six of his eight starts this season and has never failed to complete five full frames. He gets the benefit today of facing the Braves, whose anemic offense has caused DFS gamers to roster just about any pitcher who opposes them, and on today’s slate Nola makes for an easy decision, that is except for the $11000 price tag that is attached to his services (DraftKings).

Steven Matz MYN (vs. MIL) – As a team, the Brewers have struck out 28.7-percent of the time over the last seven days, the highest rate in the major leagues over that span. The Milwaukee lineup loses a lot of its luster if Ryan Braun is on the bench once again, as nagging injuries to his wrist and back have kept him off the field. If that’s the case then Matz will have an easy time navigating through that lineup, but Braun wrecks southpaws and will require the largest chunk of Matz’s attention if the slugger is in his usual three-spot in the Brewers lineup today. Matz was torched for seven runs in just 1.2 innings in his first start of the season, but since he has compiled a 1.09 ERAand 34:6 K:BB ratio in 33.0 innings, having gone six or more innings in each turn.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Wisler	0.373	4.83	0.277	3.71	0.244	0.678	0.276	4.63	0.254	0.01	15.5%
Nola	0.296	3.91	0.255	2.93	0.255	0.675	0.274	3.26	0.224	0.01	24.2%
Butler	0.437	6.31	0.346	5.13	0.264	0.736	0.327	5.54	0.305	0.00	13.4%
Cole	0.271	2.27	0.279	3.06	0.269	0.773	0.303	2.68	0.234	0.01	24.1%
Andriese	0.306	4.23	0.273	2.70	0.267	0.737	0.271	3.88	0.24	0.01	17.0%
Sanchez	0.313	4.36	0.367	6.11	0.242	0.700	0.282	4.90	0.252	0.00	20.8%
Kluber	0.325	4.21	0.237	3.09	0.271	0.760	0.297	2.97	0.229	0.01	27.1%
Buchholz	0.303	3.78	0.316	4.40	0.252	0.720	0.316	3.46	0.261	0.01	20.8%
Peralta	0.380	5.15	0.389	5.68	0.244	0.718	0.340	5.03	0.315	0.00	12.6%
Matz	0.340	2.76	0.264	2.50	0.233	0.679	0.311	3.15	0.247	0.02	23.6%
Iwakuma	0.312	3.52	0.296	3.99	0.245	0.699	0.288	3.78	0.25	0.01	20.5%
Straily	0.281	3.56	0.323	3.90	0.242	0.721	0.242	4.59	0.211	0.02	20.0%
Roark	0.331	3.61	0.303	4.34	0.260	0.697	0.291	4.22	0.258	0.00	17.1%
Nicolino	0.284	3.54	0.323	4.06	0.266	0.770	0.253	4.80	0.253	0.00	6.7%
Gee	0.416	5.61	0.276	3.94	0.252	0.705	0.327	4.59	0.294	0.01	15.7%
Quintana	0.266	3.14	0.310	2.94	0.269	0.723	0.318	2.98	0.259	0.01	21.1%
Lewis	0.330	4.44	0.305	4.24	0.246	0.745	0.285	4.31	0.259	0.00	16.8%
McCullers	0.266	3.14	0.321	3.78	0.258	0.737	0.296	3.26	0.23	0.01	24.5%
Sanchez	0.350	3.68	0.228	2.79	0.241	0.696	0.256	4.25	0.222	0.00	17.8%
Duffey	0.314	2.35	0.286	3.07	0.260	0.777	0.306	3.17	0.246	0.02	22.2%
Corbin	0.266	2.03	0.346	4.33	0.232	0.671	0.310	3.95	0.27	0.01	19.4%
Martinez	0.332	3.77	0.257	2.34	0.266	0.742	0.298	3.41	0.237	0.01	23.3%
Sabathia	0.251	4.14	0.364	4.72	0.252	0.707	0.320	4.51	0.28	0.01	18.6%
Gray	0.268	2.62	0.297	3.97	0.246	0.733	0.265	3.75	0.226	0.01	20.1%
Wright	0.410	5.75	0.320	5.60	0.251	0.710	0.304	5.29	0.282	0.00	14.9%
Santiago	0.273	2.54	0.323	3.91	0.240	0.672	0.252	4.69	0.225	0.01	20.5%
Arrieta	0.215	1.40	0.227	1.90	0.264	0.741	0.238	2.40	0.178	0.01	27.0%
Peavy	0.325	4.00	0.336	5.15	0.250	0.741	0.293	4.10	0.26	0.01	17.9%
Kazmir	0.330	4.76	0.297	3.01	0.241	0.680	0.274	4.21	0.237	0.01	20.6%
Friedrich	0.292	3.00	0.391	6.55	0.259	0.748	0.351	4.11	0.298	0.00	16.5%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Corey Kluber CLE (at BOS) – When everything is clicking, Kluber is an all-in candidate who could spike a huge strikeout total no matter who he is facing, but his penchant for getting roughed up has carried over from last season and has infected his ERA in 2016.Kluber has a 4.30 ERA on the season and has given up four or more earned runs in four of his eight starts this season, including his last two games in a row. He has only cracked more than eight strikeouts once this season, and his two starts with 37-plus points on DraftKings are marginalized by the three starts in which he has failed to break seven points on DK. Today he faces the hottest offense on the planet, increasing the odds that Kluber adds to his stack of clunkers rather than his small pile of excellent starts.

Carlos Martinez STL (vs. ARI) – Martinez coasted through the first month of the season, but he has been slowed by health-related issues since the calendar flipped to May and he has just a 5.40 ERA and 12:6 K:BB ratio over three starts and 15.0 innings this month. He had an eight-day hiatus between his last two starts but apparently it wasn’t enough, as CarMart allowed four runs and eight baserunners over 5.0 innings against the Dodgers in his last turn, with just two punchouts and 0.65 points on DraftKings. He tossed six or more full frames in each of his first five starts but hasn’t lasted longer than 50. in either of the last two, with more walks (six) than strikeouts (four) over that stretch. He’s a good target for managers in season-long fantasy leagues, but for tonight’s contest Martinez represents one of the more volatile options of the upper end of the player pool.

Aaron Sanchez TOR (at MIN) – Sanchez has gone six or more innings in seven of his eight starts this season, clearing 7.0 frames in five of those turns, though he is coming off the one start in which he was left in too long, giving up six runs over 6.2 innings when the last four of those tallies came in the final frame. This was his last start, in which four of the five batters that he faced in the seventh inning got on base and eventually came around to score (one was surrendered by the bullpen). Sanchez has been a consistent, if limited, source of strikeouts this season, striking out between three and eight batters in every start this season and never amassing a K count that was more than two strikeouts off of his innings count for the day.

Lance McCullers HOU (vs. TEX) – In spring, I was very optimistic that McCullers would take another step forward this season, and even though he had a great 2015 campaign that largely went unnoticed, I thought that this was the year he would put himself on the map. Instead, McCullers’ start to the season was delayed six weeks due to a shoulder strain, and in his first game back it looked like the right-hander may have returned prematurely. He threw 89 pitches and couldn’t finish the fifth inning, giving up five runs and 10 baserunners over 4.2 innings, notching four Ks out of the 22 batters that he faced. McCullers was facing the Red Sox in Boston, a tough assignment for any pitcher, an the comination of his brutal opponent and his need to shake off some rust likely contributed to his subpar line. He’s a bigger wild card than the other pitchers on this list due to the lack of a recent track record, but that factor could keep his ownership rate down if looking for a sneaky GPP play.

Sonny Gray OAK (vs. NYY) – Gray fell off the fantasy radar in a hurry. His first four starts were vintage Sonny, with a 2.73 ERA that was a perfect match for his career mark at the time and 24 strikeouts in 26.1 innings, which represented a higher K rate than his typical 7.5 K/9. Then something went wrong. Gray lasted just 2.0 innings before getting the hook against the Tigers, having given up four runs of damage before he was pulled, and the right-hander has allowed six or more runs in each of his last three turns. All told, his last four starts have generated a 10.31 ERA, 14 strikeouts and nine walks with 27 hits allowed over 18.1 innings. He simply cannot be trusted right now, and fitting him into the roster is merely a speculative play to stand out from the crowd, though it carries a high risk of blow up.

Scott Kazmir LAD (at SD) – Kazmir has been awful this season and the Padres are stacked to abuse southpaws, but even when the context is favorable the Padres are one of the worst offenses in the game. Facing the Pads in Petco is exactly the type of scenario that could help Kazmir to get back on track, but as an analyst who tends to defer to baseline skills over contextual factors, Kazmir still maintains a modest ranking on this list due to the fact that he can’t get his own act together. He has turned it up a bit lately, with a 22:6 K:BB ratio over his last three starts and 21.0 innings though he has still struggled to keep runs off the scoreboard, with a 3.86 ERA even during his best stretch of the season.

Patrick Corbin ARI (at STL)

Matt Andriese TB (at DET)

Matt Wisler ATL (at PHI)

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at CIN)

Tyler Duffey MIN (vs. TOR)

Hector Santiago LAA (vs. BAL)

Colby Lewis TEX (at HOU)

Tanner Roark WAS (at MIA)

Eddie Butler COL (at PIT)

CC Sabathia NYY (at OAK)

Anibal Sanchez DET (vs. TB)

Justin Nicolino MIA (vs. WAS)