Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, May 26th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boyd | DET | CHW | 144.1 | 4.8 | 4.63 | 1.42 | 27.78% | 18.3% | 8.0% | 1.50 | 39.6% |
| Luis Perdomo | SDP | WAS | 184 | 5.72 | 3.84 | 1.57 | 30.00% | 17.1% | 6.9% | 1.27 | 60.9% |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | PHI | 101.2 | 4.69 | 4.69 | 1.29 | 30.77% | 18.0% | 7.5% | 1.77 | 36.2% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | PIT | 203.2 | 3.18 | 3.52 | 1.23 | 54.17% | 26.1% | 7.0% | 0.97 | 45.1% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | NYY | 233 | 4.06 | 4.55 | 1.3 | 38.71% | 14.3% | 6.2% | 1.08 | 51.8% |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | TOR | 156.2 | 5.06 | 4.59 | 1.32 | 21.74% | 21.0% | 8.4% | 2.24 | 29.1% |
| Ian Kennedy | KCR | CLE | 233.1 | 3.74 | 4.35 | 1.21 | 42.42% | 22.2% | 8.6% | 1.54 | 34.2% |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | BOS | 167.1 | 5.54 | 5.16 | 1.56 | 21.74% | 16.3% | 10.8% | 1.24 | 44.3% |
| Jesse Chavez | LAA | MIA | 121.2 | 4.51 | 3.89 | 1.28 | 21.2% | 6.7% | 1.70 | 43.8% | |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | HOU | 227 | 4.24 | 4.08 | 1.4 | 50.00% | 21.4% | 7.0% | 1.43 | 43.9% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | CHW | 144.1 | 4.8 | 4.63 | 1.42 | 27.78% | 18.3% | 8.0% | 1.50 | 39.6% |
| Zack Godley | ARI | MIL | 100.1 | 5.38 | 4.14 | 1.38 | 22.22% | 18.4% | 8.1% | 1.35 | 56.1% |
| Chris Archer | TBR | MIN | 266 | 3.96 | 3.51 | 1.24 | 33.33% | 27.7% | 8.1% | 1.22 | 46.1% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | COL | 253 | 3.09 | 3.91 | 1.21 | 51.61% | 22.5% | 8.8% | 0.78 | 55.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | LAD | 248 | 3.45 | 3.88 | 1.15 | 48.39% | 24.1% | 8.9% | 0.87 | 50.1% |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | SFG | 220.1 | 4.53 | 4.14 | 1.36 | 30.00% | 19.3% | 8.3% | 1.31 | 55.7% |
| David Holmberg | CHW | DET | 10.1 | 0.87 | 4.04 | 0.48 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 0.00 | 48.1% | |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | SDP | 288 | 2.97 | 3.03 | 0.97 | 67.65% | 31.6% | 6.3% | 1.25 | 33.0% |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | CIN | 134 | 4.57 | 3.4 | 1.32 | 50.00% | 24.4% | 6.4% | 0.74 | 55.0% |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | NYM | 110.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 1.42 | 57.14% | 17.9% | 7.7% | 0.81 | 42.7% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | OAK | 247.2 | 3.74 | 3.9 | 1.18 | 58.06% | 19.9% | 5.0% | 1.27 | 48.5% |
| Michael Bolsinger | TOR | TEX | |||||||||
| Michael Clevinger | CLE | KCR | |||||||||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | SEA | 156.1 | 4.2 | 4.21 | 1.23 | 35.00% | 23.6% | 8.8% | 1.21 | 31.7% |
| Dan Straily | MIA | LAA | 240 | 3.75 | 4.6 | 1.15 | 45.16% | 21.3% | 9.6% | 1.39 | 32.8% |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | BAL | 108.1 | 4.74 | 4.25 | 1.36 | 40.00% | 20.0% | 7.2% | 1.50 | 43.7% |
| David Holmberg | CHW | DET | 10.1 | 0.87 | 4.04 | 0.48 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 0.00 | 48.1% | |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | ARI | 124.2 | 2.89 | 4.35 | 1.11 | 45.00% | 20.7% | 8.6% | 0.79 | 45.5% |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | TBR | 232 | 4.54 | 5.1 | 1.36 | 36.36% | 17.7% | 9.8% | 1.55 | 34.0% |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | STL | 54 | 3.67 | 4.87 | 1.22 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 1.17 | 46.1% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Max Scherzer WAS (vs. SD, $12700) – Scherzer would be the best pitcher on the slate no matter who he was facing, and the $12700 price tag is a bargain regardless of opponent. Enter the Padres, a team that struggles to score runs but which piles up the offensive strikeouts, and Scherzer becomes one of the best values of the season. At 25.0 FPPG, he has scored more than four points per game better than the next highest total among pitchers who are toeing the mound for today, and that’s before adjusting for his opponent. He does give up homers, including a rate of 1.4 HR/9 this season that would qualify as a career-worst for Scherzer if over a full season, and the fact that he has coughed up nine home runs over his last six outings adds a wrinkle of doubt to his profile, and the Padres have a 15th-ranked total of 57 bombs this season, but one gets the feeling that any homers hit off Scherzer today will be of the solo variety. Expect a very high ownership rate for Scherzer tonight.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jacob DeGrom NYM (at PIT, $12100) – He was originally slated to start yesterday’s ballgame, but the Mets opted to hold deGrom back a day in order to avoid any weather-related concerns, a decision that cost the right-hander a meeting with the Padres and therefore an opportunity to greatly pad his stats. The Pirates might be even worse from the standpoint of generating runs, considering that two-thirds of their outfield is on the shelf and the one mainstay has been Andrew McCutchen, a player that seems to have lost his mojo and who was held out of the starting lineup for the past two days and whose triple-slash of .203/.274/.360 represents a three-category disappointment from the former MVP. deGrom should be able to cruise through this outing, and the only question is whether he will score enough points on DraftKings to merit the $600 difference between him and Scherzer.
Chris Archer TB (at MIN, $11400) – Archer is on a strikeout binge, having cracked double digits in Ks in three of his last four starts, compiling a 34:3 K:BB in 20.1 innings over those three games, but the fourth was a disappointment in every direction. He gave up more runs in that one game (seven) than in his other three May starts combined (six), managed a modest six strikeouts and lost control of the strike zone with six walks over 5.0 innings. It could be just a fluke, but his K-rate is a different animal when pitching on the road versus at home: 56 strikeouts in 40.0 innings at home (12.6 K/9), with eight or more Ks in five of six starts; but 21 strikeouts in 24.2 innings (7.7 K/9) on the road, topping out at six strikeouts in one of those four turns. If I thought that were more than just a fluke, then he would rank lower.
Alex Wood LAD (vs. CHC, $9600) – Don’t look now, but Wood has strung together two months of Cy-worthy performance for the Dodgers. He has a 1.88 ERA this season to go with a 52:13 K:BB and a perfect 5-0 record in 43.0 innings over nine games (seven starts). He has yet to throw more than 96 pitches in a game, with pitch counts limiting him 18.1 total innings over his last three games combined despite his not allowing a single run over that stretch. The limited frames haven’t stopped Wood from clearing some impressive K-counts, though, including 29 strikeouts over 16.0 innings across his first three starts of the month. The cherry on the sundae? His second-best point total of the season (33.90 points on DraftKings) came just two starts ago in friggin’ Colorado. The Tazmanian Devil will be back in LA tonight, trying to confuse the Cubs with his whirling dervish style of pitching.
Aaron Nola PHI (vs. CIN, $7700) – Nola returned from the disabled last weekend and shut down the Pirates with just one run allowed in 7.0 innings, cruising through the game with just 89 pitches and seven baserunners on the day. The Reds will pose a greater challenge than the walking wounded squad of the Bucs, as Cincy has forged an imposing offense this season that ranks fifth in baseball in slugging percentage and which has scored the eighth-most runs in the game. Don’t expect Nola to be intimidated by the assignment, as his first two starts of the year came against the league-best lineup of the Nats, and he emerged from those two turns with a 3.27 ERA and 13:2 K:BB in 11.0 innings of work. The [itch count will likely stay below the century mark, as it has for all of Nola’s starts so far this season, but the side-winding right-hander has shown that he can chew through a half-dozen innings with those restrictions, though the odds of a long outing are low. He’s the only player that rises from the middle pricing tier into the Raise group, and Nola makes for a great pairing with one of the elite/expensive pitchers on the board if playing in a two-pitcher format such as DraftKings.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boyd | DET | CHW | 0.266 | 3.2 | 0.355 | 5.14 | 0.271 | 4.63 | 0.302 | 4.8 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDP | WAS | 0.383 | 6.81 | 0.334 | 4.9 | 0.306 | 3.84 | 0.349 | 4.54 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | PHI | 0.349 | 4.91 | 0.337 | 4.53 | 0.254 | 4.69 | 0.271 | 5.28 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | PIT | 0.272 | 2.75 | 0.326 | 3.64 | 0.247 | 3.52 | 0.318 | 3.3 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | NYY | 0.326 | 3.98 | 0.309 | 4.14 | 0.266 | 4.55 | 0.288 | 4.39 |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | TOR | 0.398 | 5.91 | 0.307 | 4.36 | 0.25 | 4.59 | 0.264 | 5.79 |
| Ian Kennedy | KCR | CLE | 0.303 | 3.72 | 0.317 | 3.77 | 0.228 | 4.35 | 0.257 | 4.77 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | BOS | 0.33 | 5.8 | 0.358 | 5.32 | 0.273 | 5.16 | 0.305 | 4.92 |
| Jesse Chavez | LAA | MIA | 0.336 | 5.4 | 0.323 | 3.89 | 0.26 | 3.89 | 0.292 | 4.71 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | HOU | 0.293 | 3.68 | 0.37 | 4.75 | 0.275 | 4.08 | 0.322 | 4.34 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | CHW | 0.266 | 3.2 | 0.355 | 5.14 | 0.271 | 4.63 | 0.302 | 4.8 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | MIL | 0.347 | 5.32 | 0.323 | 5.43 | 0.261 | 4.14 | 0.293 | 4.63 |
| Chris Archer | TBR | MIN | 0.313 | 4.54 | 0.291 | 3.46 | 0.233 | 3.51 | 0.298 | 3.63 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | COL | 0.312 | 3.76 | 0.251 | 2.4 | 0.226 | 3.91 | 0.278 | 3.63 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | LAD | 0.297 | 3.5 | 0.263 | 3.41 | 0.212 | 3.88 | 0.263 | 3.6 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | SFG | 0.292 | 2.82 | 0.339 | 4.97 | 0.256 | 4.14 | 0.292 | 4.53 |
| David Holmberg | CHW | DET | 0.063 | 2.08 | 0.167 | 0 | 0.091 | 4.04 | 0.111 | 2.45 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | SDP | 0.323 | 3.46 | 0.208 | 2.51 | 0.197 | 3.03 | 0.256 | 3.27 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | CIN | 0.313 | 4.34 | 0.3 | 4.78 | 0.262 | 3.4 | 0.337 | 3.08 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | NYM | 0.386 | 6.24 | 0.295 | 3.65 | 0.274 | 4.6 | 0.322 | 3.89 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | OAK | 0.294 | 3.48 | 0.313 | 4 | 0.249 | 3.9 | 0.283 | 4 |
| Michael Bolsinger | TOR | TEX | ||||||||
| Michael Clevinger | CLE | KCR | ||||||||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | SEA | 0.324 | 3.03 | 0.299 | 4.48 | 0.228 | 4.21 | 0.273 | 4.08 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | LAA | 0.283 | 3.81 | 0.314 | 3.7 | 0.207 | 4.6 | 0.229 | 4.74 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | BAL | 0.351 | 4.81 | 0.341 | 4.68 | 0.269 | 4.25 | 0.306 | 4.58 |
| David Holmberg | CHW | DET | 0.063 | 2.08 | 0.167 | 0 | 0.091 | 4.04 | 0.111 | 2.45 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | ARI | 0.265 | 2.59 | 0.285 | 3.13 | 0.208 | 4.35 | 0.246 | 3.75 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | TBR | 0.375 | 5.53 | 0.315 | 4.32 | 0.243 | 0.261 | 5.21 | |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | STL | 4.28 | 0.295 | 3.04 | 0.235 | 0.252 | 4.68 |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jake Arrieta CHC (at LAD, $9200) – Seeing Arrieta with such a low price is bound to be enticing, but be warned that this is not the same Jake Arrieta of the past two seasons. His fastball velocity – which had been above 94.4 mph on average for five straight seasons, has dropped nearly two full ticks to a weighted average (two-seam and four-seam) of 92.6 mph. The drop has impacted not just his heat, but the whole arsenal, as every pitch in his bag has lost at least 1.4 mph from last season, the net result of which is that opposing batters have more time to identify the incoming pitch (velo, location and spin) on everything that Arrieta throws. He is facing a deep Dodger lineup and is supported by an offense that has sputtered a bit out of the gate this season. Arrieta has given up three or more earned runs in seven consecutive starts going into his last turn, but he spun 6.0 innings with just one unearned run allowed, with six strikeouts and one walk. The fact that he tossed the gem against a legit offense like the Brewers’ is encouraging, and crafty tournament players might try to grab the front end of a hot streak before the ownership rates skyrocket.
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (vs. OAK, $8100) – His results have been brutal at times this season, beginning with the seven earned runs that he gave up in his first start of the year and extending to the 14 earnies that Tanaka has allowed over his last two starts combined. The upshot of rostering Tanaka tonight against Oakland is that he might be able to pile up a decent score against a weak offense and do so for pennies on the dollar, but he would be bucking trends to do so, leaving him as an option best left to large/cheap tournaments rather than being a cash-game play. His K-rate has declined for the third straight season if looking at K/9, his walk rate has launched from being an asset at 1.5 BB/9 to the near-league-average 2.8 BB/9 of this season; meanwhile, a home run rate that was already his key vulnerability (career 1.1 HR/9 heading into this season) has become horrifically unstable, as Tanaka has surrendered a whopping 13 homers in 48.0 innings (2.4 HR/9). He has given up the most runs of any pitcher in the AL and has turned off potential DFS owners, making him an interesting zig play in tonight’s slate of games.
Dan Straily MIA (vs. LAA, $7500) – It may not be sexy, but Straily has quietly put together a solid campaign thus far. He’s walking too many batters (4.1 BB/9), but his 5.2 H/9 is the lowest mark in the National League among qualifying pitchers and he has put up a strikeout per inning. The tenets of regression put Straily in a precarious position in terms of his longer-term outlook, but for tonight’s outing he can flex his muscles against an Angels club that ranks 26th of 30 teams in slugging percentage. However, the Angels are breaking a bit with their tradition, ranking 10th in the game in walks drawn, and a continuation of that patience could provide a lot of opportunities with free baserunners against a walk machine like Straily. The right-hander is on a nice little run, including a 2.02 ERA and 16:5 K:BB over 17.2 innings over his last three starts, but be careful with a pitcher whose game-to-game variation in performance is obscuring his overall numbers; he struck out eight batters in his last turn and whiffed 14 Padres when he faced San Diego, but outside of those outliers he hasn’t struck out more than five batters in any of his other seven starts, so expect another low K-count in tonight’s outing.
Carlos Martinez STL (at COL, $8900) – CarMart has had a very uneven campaign, complete with high totals of walks and strikeouts, but he will need to exemplify extreme levels of true outcomes in order to avoid the pitfalls of hitters making contact in Coors Field. Martinez has tossed at least 6.0 innings in five consecutive starts, including his complete game shutout against the GIants in his last turn, but he will have to weather the elements in order to get through the sixth frame in tonight’s game. Any pitcher in COlorado becomes an automatic zig play, and CarMart’s penchant for true outcomes makes him an especially intriguing one, but cash game lineups should stay away from Coors Field at all costs. The Tsunami can’t reach the mile-high peaks of Denver, where bats are safe from rising tides.
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS (vs. SEA, $8800)
Ian Kennedy KC (at CLE, $7200)
Jaime Garcia ATL (at SF, $7000)
Joe Musgrove HOU (vs. BAL, $7600)
Mike Clevinger CLE (vs. KC, $8000)
Hector Santiago MIN (vs. TB, $6000)
Jesse Chavez LAA (at MIA, $7100)
Kevin Gausman BAL (at HOU, $6500)
Matt Cain SF (vs. ATL, $6400)
Zack Godley PHI (at MIL, $6300)
A.J. Griffin TEX (at TOR, $6700)
Antonio Senzatela COL (vs. STL, $5900)
Chad Kuhl PIT (vs. NYM, $6600)
Tim Adleman CIN (at PHI, $6900)
Kendall Graveman OAK (at NYY, $5500)
Mike Bolsinger TOR (vs. TEX, $4500)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Junior Guerra MIL (vs. ARI, $4800)
Yovani Gallardo SEA (at BOS, $4700)
Luis Perdomo SD (at WAS, $5200)