Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, September 16th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-17 01:04:20

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Anderson	MIL	CHC	287.2	4.41	4.45	1.33	40.0%	18.1%	7.1%	1.35	1.05
Lackey	CHC	MIL	387.1	3.02	3.85	1.13	57.9%	21.7%	6.4%	0.95	1.27
Koehler	MIA	PHI	348.1	4.03	4.71	1.39	52.6%	17.9%	9.7%	1.03	1.26
Morgan	PHI	MIA	183.1	5.15	4.59	1.35		16.3%	5.1%	1.72	0.78
Archer	TBR	BAL	394.1	3.61	3.25	1.18	55.0%	28.7%	7.8%	1.03	1.37
Jimenez	BAL	TBR	307.1	4.86	4.35	1.47	27.8%	20.1%	9.8%	1.00	1.56
Fulmer	DET	CLE	143.2	2.76	4.00	1.05		20.3%	6.3%	0.94	1.62
Kluber	CLE	DET	419.2	3.28	3.21	1.05	57.1%	27.1%	5.7%	0.88	1.25
Colon	NYM	MIN	365.1	3.74	4.22	1.23	42.1%	16.2%	3.6%	1.13	1.22
Cessa	NYY	BOS	47.2	4.34	4.50	1.11		15.8%	5.6%	2.45	1.16
Buchholz	BOS	NYY	233.2	4.31	4.26	1.31	33.3%	19.1%	7.3%	1.04	1.22
Vogelsong	PIT	CIN	198.2	4.67	4.71	1.45	52.6%	17.3%	9.8%	1.18	1.23
Stephenson	CIN	PIT	20.1	4.43	5.00	1.33		17.4%	8.1%	2.21	0.62
Scherzer	WAS	ATL	432.1	2.79	2.81	0.92	60.0%	31.1%	4.8%	1.10	0.75
Gant	ATL	WAS	43	4.40	3.92	1.42		23.7%	8.4%	1.26	1.12
Graveman	OAK	TEX	283.2	4.09	4.57	1.36		14.2%	6.8%	1.14	1.83
Hamels	TEX	OAK	393	3.46	3.71	1.24	58.8%	24.0%	8.1%	0.98	1.59
Sale	CWS	KCR	410.1	3.22	2.98	1.05	64.3%	29.0%	5.1%	1.01	1.13
Kennedy	KCR	CWS	339.2	3.95	3.87	1.25	47.6%	23.8%	7.6%	1.64	0.84
Friedrich	SDP	COL	170	4.87	4.64	1.54		17.2%	9.3%	0.95	1.32
Chatwood	COL	SDP	139	3.82	4.76	1.39	25.0%	16.2%	10.5%	0.78	2.27
Maeda	LAD	ARI	159	3.28	3.67	1.09		24.8%	6.6%	1.02	1.22
Greinke	ARI	LAD	369.1	2.80	3.59	1.02	50.0%	22.1%	5.0%	0.88	1.42
Dickey	TOR	LAA	378.2	4.21	4.79	1.27	47.6%	15.6%	7.8%	1.26	1.16
Weaver	LAA	TOR	320	4.95	5.21	1.36	52.4%	13.2%	5.7%	1.66	0.65
McHugh	HOU	SEA	361	4.31	3.94	1.37	42.9%	21.1%	6.4%	1.07	1.25
Hernandez	SEA	HOU	335	3.55	3.86	1.22	81.0%	21.6%	8.3%	1.05	1.92
Weaver	STL	SFG	31	3.48	3.11	1.23		30.2%	6.2%	1.45	1.00
Moore	SFG	STL	239.2	4.43	4.52	1.35		19.8%	8.7%	1.24	0.92

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Chris Sale CHW (at KC) – You know the whole narrative about Chris Sale emphasizing pitch-to-contact this season, in lieu of an insane K count? I think that we can safely consider that approach to be abandoned, at least for the final month of the 2016 season. He didn’t have his first game of double-digit strikeouts until his first turn of August, but by the end of the month he was throwing a complete game with 14 punchouts over the nine innings. In his last turn, Sale struck out another dozen hitters, this time against the Royals and once again over 8.0 frames. He has gone at least 8.0 innings deep in five consecutive starts, and though the last four of those have each included multiple runs against – the last two games have involved two homers apiece by the opposition – the composite line over the five games is a 1.98 ERA with a 48:8 K:BB over 41.0 innings, though Sale has just a 1-2 record to show for his troubles. I expect this round against the Royals to go just as smoothly as his last time out.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Max Scherzer WAS (at ATL) – Scherzer versus the Braves is theoretically as automatic as they come, making him the ideal All-In candidate. I just can’t shake what the Braves have continued to do to ace-level pitchers over the past couple months, continuously putting up solid batting lines against only the top-shelf arms, the last being Jose Fernandez, against whom they scored four runs in the second inning and struck out just three times. Scherzer had a solid started against the Braves two turns ago, giving up two runs over 7.0 innings, but his five strikeouts were a disappointment after he had cleared double digits four times in his previous six outings. One of the two non K-filled starts was on the road versus the Braves (back on August 20), in which Scherzer coughed up four runs and struck out six batters in 6.1 innings. Atlanta puts the ball in play, especially against right-handers, and the team-wide tendency to swing early and often results in copious amounts of balls in play for strike-throwers like Scherzer.

Corey Kluber CLE (vs. DET) – Kluber cleared the All-In threshold for his past couple starts, but tonight he gets passed by a couple of fellow elite arms who are up against softer offenses. It’s not from lack of performance on Kluber’s end, as the right-hander has struck out 30 batters in 22.0 innings across his last three starts. He’s coming off a dominant outing against the Twins, with one run allowed (zero earned) on four hits and two walks with 10 strikeouts added to his statline. He also broke a string of six straight starts in which he had allowed a home run. He’s scored 21 or more points on DraftKings in six straight starts and 11 of his past 12, with the one outlier being worth 13.7 points and crossing 25 points in seven of those 12 turns. There are three pitchers on today’s slate who deserve consideration for All-In status, and though Kluber is ranked third among those hurlers, there’s nearly as good of a chance that he puts up the highest score of the day as either of the other two options.

Cole Hamels TEX (vs. OAK) – The Mariners took it to Hamels, rocking him for 13 runs over 6.0 innings across two starts as the calendar flipped to September. Prior to those two outings, he was on a streak of eight consecutive starts with three or fewer runs allowed, seven of which included two earned runs or fewer and six of which lasted 7.0 innings or more. Perhaps the Mariners just had Hamels’ number, as he bounced back in his last turn, allowing two tallies to the Angels across six innings of work, but the four walks that he allowed indicate that the southpaw might also be a bit off his game, as he had allowed seven free passes to the M’s between the two games. He has only faced division opponent Oakland once this season and that was back in May, but the A’s clubbed three homers in that contest and Hamels will need to limit both the walks and the homers tonight if he hopes to get back on track. The former, at least, should be relatively easy, given that the Funnyball A’s are second-to-last in the AL in walks drawn.

Felix Hernandez SEA (vs. HOU) – The Rangers were nearly as harsh on the King as his Mariners were on Cole Hamels, with 12 earned runs given up across 9.2 innings in his two starts that bookended the flip of the calendar. He actually got the win in the second outing, which was against Hamels and involved 14 runs of offensive support. He got another 14 runs of support in his last start, in which he threw six shutout innings with six hits and one walk allowed, though he struck just two hitters in the ballgame. The single walk was clutch – though his facing the walk-less offense of the A’s adds a caveat – as Hernandez had walked four batters in each of the games against the Rangers and had given away four or more free passes in five of his previous eight ballgames.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Anderson	0.310	4.01	0.357	4.75	0.247	0.738	0.295	4.57	0.264	87.91	18.1%
Lackey	0.315	3.10	0.263	2.96	0.250	0.712	0.277	3.63	0.233	0.00	21.7%
Koehler	0.330	4.06	0.314	4.00	0.241	0.684	0.290	4.44	0.254	93.89	17.9%
Morgan	0.288	3.53	0.368	5.66	0.270	0.729	0.298	4.99	0.28	0.00	16.3%
Archer	0.279	3.65	0.293	3.56	0.261	0.776	0.296	3.26	0.225	102.33	28.7%
Jimenez	0.340	5.47	0.323	4.29	0.245	0.720	0.317	4.24	0.265	0.00	20.1%
Fulmer	0.269	2.48	0.284	3.04	0.257	0.746	0.251	3.81	0.217	0.01	20.3%
Kluber	0.303	3.51	0.249	3.07	0.267	0.746	0.283	3.05	0.22	101.62	27.1%
Berrios	0.374	8.22	0.470	10.38	0.242	0.712	0.377	6.25	0.326	0.00	19.0%
Colon	0.323	3.69	0.305	3.80	0.248	0.719	0.299	3.93	0.271	83.59	16.2%
Cessa	0.321	4.58	0.323	4.18	0.275	0.779	0.209	6.21	0.23	56.38	15.8%
Buchholz	0.315	4.40	0.314	4.24	0.250	0.735	0.299	4.07	0.258	70.48	19.1%
Vogelsong	0.378	6.57	0.310	3.20	0.252	0.716	0.291	4.70	0.258	63.28	17.3%
Stephenson	0.309	4.63			0.259	0.725	0.259	6.04	0.256	88.50	17.4%
Scherzer	0.296	3.10	0.215	2.48	0.256	0.699	0.257	2.94	0.197	0.00	31.1%
Gant	0.334	3.80	0.350	5.12	0.251	0.729	0.322	4.12	0.262	53.13	23.7%
Graveman	0.330	3.64	0.319	4.58	0.260	0.750	0.294	4.56	0.271	91.10	14.2%
Hamels	0.282	2.55	0.303	3.71	0.249	0.700	0.295	3.71	0.237	103.02	24.0%
Sale	0.269	3.34	0.281	3.20	0.272	0.737	0.296	3.07	0.225	107.97	29.0%
Kennedy	0.325	3.98	0.331	3.92	0.253	0.707	0.282	4.62	0.242	99.20	23.8%
Friedrich	0.291	4.34	0.351	5.13	0.261	0.725	0.319	4.28	0.276	0.00	17.2%
Chatwood	0.318	4.30	0.310	3.34	0.237	0.682	0.283	4.29	0.248	93.54	16.2%
Maeda	0.299	3.17	0.252	3.38	0.262	0.734	0.275	3.54	0.223	93.61	24.8%
Greinke	0.280	3.13	0.253	2.50	0.253	0.750	0.261	3.29	0.219	0.00	22.1%
Dickey	0.314	3.98	0.327	4.39	0.256	0.722	0.265	4.76	0.247	97.10	15.6%
Weaver	0.348	4.55	0.355	5.31	0.257	0.776	0.289	5.29	0.281	0.00	13.2%
McHugh	0.317	4.32	0.339	4.31	0.252	0.742	0.331	3.81	0.276	98.18	21.1%
Hernandez	0.309	3.86	0.296	3.24	0.249	0.745	0.277	4.05	0.233	99.13	21.6%
Weaver	0.378	4.91	0.273	2.70	0.262	0.736	0.325	3.50	0.248	92.33	30.2%
Moore	0.315	5.76	0.322	3.99	0.239	0.700	0.293	4.46	0.254	97.49	19.8%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Chris Archer TB (at BAL) – Archer has pitched well enough for easy Raise consideration, and in a vacuum I would prefer him to Hamels or King Felix today, but his formidable opponent combined with Archer’s relative inconsistency act to knock him down a peg. He’s pitched 6.0 or more innings in 11 of his last 12 starts and has whiffed nine or more batters in four of his last six outings. The last three games have all been quality starts while facing legit lineups, including those of the Astros, Blue Jays and Yankees. The Rays give him a considerable leash, with pitch counts of 97 or more throws in 19 of his last 20 starts, exceeding 110 pitches in seven of those ballgames, so the potential is there for a massive K count against a free-swinging Orioles club, though the challenge will be for Archer to keep the ball within the confines of Camden Yards.

Kenta Maeda LAD (at ARI) – Maeda’s case is very much the opposite of Archer’s. The Dodger right-hander doesn’t have the strikeout chops of Archer – though he did strike out 13 Padres back on July 10 – but he specializes in run prevention and minimizing walks. He has allowed three or fewer runs in nine straight starts, but he has only pulled down a quality start in four of those games due to strict pitch counts that have kept him under 105 pitches in each of his last 14 starts, with eight of those turns involving fewer than 95 pitches. Despite the low run-counts, Maeda has not had a scoreless outing since May, and the combination of low innings and mediocre performance have kept him under 20 points on DraftKings in eight of his last ten starts.

Zack Greinke ARI (vs. LAD) – Greinke’s first summer in the desert has been forgettable, as the expensive right-hander has pitched to a 4.54 ERA that’s his worst mark since he was a 21-year-old back in 2005. The strikeout and walk rates are right there with previously-established levels, but Greinke is giving up far more hits and homers than he has seen since that ‘05 season, as he is on pace to give up more than a hit per inning for the first time since and his homer rate of 1.4 HR/9 is the highest mark since his rookie campaign. At least part of the obscene hit rate can be attributed to a home ballpark that inflates base hits, but his road ERA of 4.01 with 75 hits – including 12 homers – in 74.0 frames is nothing to write home about. He takes on his old teammates for the third time this season, and the first two matchups have not gone well for Greinke, who has posted a 7.71 ERA with 16 hits allowed – including a whopping six home runs – in just 11.2 innings versus the Dodgers this season.

Ian Kennedy KC (vs. CHW) – Kennedy faced the White Sox in his last outing, giving up just one hit across six scoreless frames in Chicago, though his total of four walks indicates his lack of pitch-count efficiency on the day, keeping him from going deeper into the ballgame. He has allowed one or zero runs over 6.0 innings or more in six of his last nine starts, through the three exceptions have all come in his last four games. In each of two of his last three games, Kennedy has surrendered four runs to mediocre offenses (the Twins and Yankees), as the home run ball that plagued him for much of the season came back to contribute to the crooked numbers. Kennedy gave up an astounding 26 home runs in his first 19 starts, but in his last 10 games Kennedy has given up just five longballs in 62.0 combined innings of work.

Michael Fulmer DET (at CLE)

Luke Weaver STL (at SF)

Matt Moore SF (vs. STL)

Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. MIN)

Robert Stephenson CIN (vs. PIT)

Collin McHugh HOU (at SEA)

Tom Koehler MIA (at PHI)

Kendall Graveman OAK (at TEX)

Ryan Vogelsong PIT (at CIN)

R.A. Dickey TOR (at LAA)

Clay Buchholz BOS (vs. NYY)

John Gant ATL (vs. WAS)

Adam Morgan PHI (vs. MIA)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Jose Berrios MIN (at NYM)

Jered Weaver LAA (vs. TOR)

Luis Cessa NYY (at BOS)

Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. TB)

Tyler Chatwood COL (vs. SD)

Christian Friedrich SD (at COL)

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window