Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, September 23rd
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leake | STL | CHC | 360.1 | 4.10 | 4.05 | 1.22 | 45.0% | 15.9% | 5.1% | 1.05 | 2.02 |
| Arrieta | CHC | STL | 414.1 | 2.30 | 3.31 | 0.95 | 50.0% | 25.5% | 7.5% | 0.54 | 2.17 |
| Miller | ARI | BAL | 295.1 | 4.27 | 4.48 | 1.40 | 21.1% | 18.3% | 8.7% | 0.82 | 1.34 |
| Gallardo | BAL | ARI | 290.1 | 4.28 | 4.89 | 1.49 | 50.0% | 15.6% | 9.7% | 0.96 | 1.48 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | PIT | 344.1 | 4.13 | 3.86 | 1.36 | 46.7% | 22.4% | 8.3% | 0.71 | 1.76 |
| Taillon | PIT | WAS | 93 | 3.39 | 3.59 | 1.14 | 19.8% | 3.7% | 1.06 | 2.07 | |
| Mitchell | NYY | TOR | 41.2 | 5.62 | 4.21 | 1.75 | 18.2% | 9.6% | 1.08 | 1.86 | |
| Liriano | TOR | NYY | 337.1 | 4.14 | 3.90 | 1.35 | 12.5% | 24.6% | 10.5% | 1.09 | 1.85 |
| Fulmer | DET | KCR | 148.2 | 3.03 | 4.09 | 1.08 | 20.0% | 6.5% | 0.97 | 1.53 | |
| Wisler | ATL | MIA | 255 | 4.84 | 4.80 | 1.38 | 16.3% | 7.6% | 1.38 | 0.91 | |
| Cashner | MIA | ATL | 307.2 | 4.71 | 4.29 | 1.47 | 75.0% | 19.8% | 9.0% | 1.05 | 1.53 |
| Pomeranz | BOS | TBR | 250.1 | 3.49 | 3.80 | 1.20 | 25.0% | 25.3% | 9.3% | 1.04 | 1.22 |
| Archer | TBR | BOS | 400.2 | 3.62 | 3.27 | 1.18 | 55.0% | 28.4% | 7.8% | 1.06 | 1.37 |
| Gonzalez | CWS | CLE | 267 | 4.42 | 4.57 | 1.34 | 40.0% | 17.3% | 7.6% | 1.15 | 1.10 |
| Bauer | CLE | CWS | 352.1 | 4.39 | 4.28 | 1.31 | 38.5% | 21.6% | 9.7% | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| Hellickson | PHI | NYM | 327.1 | 4.04 | 4.13 | 1.23 | 19.7% | 6.2% | 1.26 | 1.16 | |
| Ynoa | NYM | PHI | |||||||||
| Desclafani | CIN | MIL | 296 | 3.71 | 4.03 | 1.29 | 20.0% | 20.1% | 6.5% | 0.97 | 1.25 |
| Davies | MIL | CIN | 192.1 | 3.88 | 4.12 | 1.24 | 19.5% | 6.6% | 0.98 | 1.53 | |
| Meyer | LAA | HOU | 18.2 | 7.23 | 5.10 | 1.93 | 25.3% | 17.6% | 2.41 | 0.72 | |
| Fister | HOU | LAA | 277 | 4.35 | 4.81 | 1.40 | 58.3% | 14.4% | 7.0% | 1.20 | 1.29 |
| Paxton | SEA | MIN | 176 | 3.89 | 3.98 | 1.38 | 50.0% | 20.5% | 6.8% | 0.82 | 1.52 |
| Gibson | MIN | SEA | 330.2 | 4.35 | 4.38 | 1.40 | 52.6% | 16.8% | 8.1% | 1.03 | 1.87 |
| Hamels | TEX | OAK | 399 | 3.54 | 3.72 | 1.25 | 58.8% | 24.0% | 8.2% | 1.02 | 1.57 |
| Graveman | OAK | TEX | 289 | 4.14 | 4.56 | 1.37 | 14.2% | 6.8% | 1.12 | 1.83 | |
| Gray | COL | LAD | 199.1 | 4.65 | 3.73 | 1.31 | 24.9% | 7.9% | 0.90 | 1.37 | |
| Kazmir | LAD | COL | 318.1 | 3.73 | 4.14 | 1.27 | 63.2% | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.16 | 1.14 |
| Suarez | SFG | SDP | 80 | 4.16 | 4.59 | 1.30 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 1.13 | 1.56 | |
| Jackson | SDP | SFG | 127.2 | 4.72 | 4.82 | 1.42 | 15.0% | 16.6% | 10.0% | 1.13 | 1.09 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jake Arrieta CHC (vs. STL) – Everything gets ratcheted up a rung on the value latter today due to the shallow pool of top-tier pitchers. Arrieta might earn All-In status based on skills alone, but his recent performance has been nothing special, with a 4.15 ERA in three September starts and a 15:8 K:BB in 17.1 innings. His last start of August was even worse, as he yielded six runs over 6.1 innings against the Pirates. The walks have become a major problem, and one wonder what Arrieta’s line would look like if he were thrust in front of a lesser defense than the historic squad of the Cubs; even during his rough string of the last six games, in which Arieta carries a composite 4.58 ERA despite his giving up just 22 hits in 37.1 innings, including an absurdly-low .170 BABiP. His designation with All-In status is more ceremonial than anything, as there isn’t a pitcher on today’s slate who warrants the confidence or upside of a top-tier pitcher. Arrieta is playing the early game today so he will only be available for All-Day tournaments, with the rest of the non-Leake pitcher pool going at 7 pm ET or later.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Danny Duffy KC (at DET) – Duffy has given up exactly three runs in each of his last three starts, and at least that many runs in five consecutive games. He has given up eight homers over that stretch, but has maintained a stellar K:BB of 32:5 in 26.0 September innings. The southpaw has just been very hittable for a pitcher with his stuff, despite facing the weak offenses of the Twins, A’s and White Sox, but the net result has been 19.50 or more points on DraftKings in each of his last three turns. Duffy has faced the Tigers six times already this season, four as a starter, and he has been roughed up for a 5.06 ERA despite a solid 26:7 K:BB in 26.2 innings due to seven baseballs leaving the yard. The Tigers biggest hitters are lefty mashers, and even with Ian Kinsler likely out of the lineup he will need to stay away from the potent bats of Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez.
Jon Gray COL (at LAD) – Talk about confusing. Gray gave up six runs to the Padres under the marine layer of Petco Park two starts ago, then followed that up with the most dominant performance by any pitcher this season (according to Gave Score) – at altitude, no less – striking out 16 batters in a four-hit shutout of those same Friars, finishing what he started with just 113 pitches thrown and zero walks allowed. Interestingly, Gray’s ERA is higher on the road this season (4.56) than it is at home (4.30), supported by a far nicer K:BB ratio when pitching in front of the home crowd – his K:BB is 94:18 in 83.2 innings at Coors, but just 78:35 in 75.0 innings down the mountain. There’s a perilous downside to rostering Gray, who has allowed five or more runs in seven of his 27 starts this season, but he offers rare upside on a night with a lot of low-ceiling arms.
Cole Hamels TEX (at OAK) – This is a very tentative Raise suggestion, as Hamels has had the tar kicked out of him in three of his last four starts, an uncharacteristic run of vulnerability for the otherwise consistent southpaw. He gave up six runs over six innings to these A’s in his last start, including a pair of home runs and three walks allowed, marking the fourth consecutive game that Hamels had allowed at least that many walks. The southpaw actually leads the AL in walks this season at 75, thanks to rate of 3.6 BB/9 that is a full 1.0 BB/9 higher than anything that he has posted over a full season since his rookie year. Other than the extra walks, Hamels’ statline looks the same as it does every year, as one of the most consistent pitchers of our generation continues to be good for about 8.0 hits per nine innings, a K per frame and 1.0 homers per nine.
Chris Archer TB (vs. BOS) – Another bold play, rostering Archer has the likely upside of a low ownership percentage as most gamers typically fade any pitcher who is facing the Red Sox. The right-hander has tossed four consecutive quality starts, has allowed three or fewer runs in six straight turns and 10 of his last 11. Among those was a two-run game against these mighty Red Sox, though it was Archer’s lone outing of the past 13 that fell short of six full innings. Archer has been gradually draining an ERA that stood in the high 4.00s since June, and with a strong outing against the Red Sox the right-hander could pull his ERA south of 4.00 for the first time since his first start of the season.Perhaps the most impressive piece of Archer’s latest run has been his avoidance of walks, including just three free passes given away in 19.2 September innings.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leake | 0.317 | 4.19 | 0.300 | 4.00 | 0.248 | 0.739 | 0.286 | 4.05 | 0.259 | 90.50 | 15.9% |
| Arrieta | 0.232 | 2.08 | 0.245 | 2.50 | 0.258 | 0.755 | 0.237 | 2.89 | 0.184 | 0.00 | 25.5% |
| Miller | 0.355 | 4.70 | 0.285 | 3.83 | 0.260 | 0.773 | 0.308 | 3.96 | 0.262 | 94.43 | 18.3% |
| Gallardo | 0.342 | 4.81 | 0.327 | 3.81 | 0.263 | 0.737 | 0.306 | 4.45 | 0.272 | 95.04 | 15.6% |
| Gonzalez | 0.280 | 3.86 | 0.322 | 4.21 | 0.260 | 0.730 | 0.325 | 3.41 | 0.258 | 96.26 | 22.4% |
| Taillon | 0.301 | 2.53 | 0.306 | 4.24 | 0.251 | 0.729 | 0.298 | 3.63 | 0.258 | 85.81 | 19.8% |
| Mitchell | 0.327 | 4.42 | 0.384 | 6.56 | 0.257 | 0.774 | 0.360 | 4.48 | 0.305 | 0.00 | 18.2% |
| Liriano | 0.300 | 3.74 | 0.315 | 4.25 | 0.255 | 0.730 | 0.294 | 4.08 | 0.235 | 92.87 | 24.6% |
| Duffy | 0.235 | 2.16 | 0.325 | 3.92 | 0.270 | 0.775 | 0.293 | 3.93 | 0.245 | 69.60 | 22.3% |
| Fulmer | 0.271 | 2.57 | 0.294 | 3.52 | 0.261 | 0.716 | 0.255 | 3.89 | 0.221 | 0.01 | 20.0% |
| Wisler | 0.370 | 5.44 | 0.294 | 4.29 | 0.261 | 0.700 | 0.288 | 4.80 | 0.265 | 0.00 | 16.3% |
| Cashner | 0.383 | 5.43 | 0.309 | 4.12 | 0.257 | 0.699 | 0.324 | 4.22 | 0.273 | 0.00 | 19.8% |
| Pomeranz | 0.255 | 2.13 | 0.300 | 4.03 | 0.258 | 0.752 | 0.271 | 3.75 | 0.218 | 51.02 | 25.3% |
| Archer | 0.281 | 3.72 | 0.292 | 3.51 | 0.275 | 0.780 | 0.295 | 3.31 | 0.226 | 102.29 | 28.4% |
| Gonzalez | 0.330 | 3.78 | 0.320 | 5.03 | 0.256 | 0.743 | 0.295 | 4.43 | 0.262 | 90.60 | 17.3% |
| Bauer | 0.310 | 4.26 | 0.312 | 4.52 | 0.253 | 0.706 | 0.284 | 4.17 | 0.237 | 89.92 | 21.6% |
| Hellickson | 0.333 | 3.88 | 0.306 | 4.16 | 0.242 | 0.712 | 0.281 | 4.20 | 0.247 | 92.40 | 19.7% |
| Ynoa | 0.241 | 0.685 | |||||||||
| Desclafani | 0.349 | 4.47 | 0.280 | 2.87 | 0.250 | 0.714 | 0.310 | 3.76 | 0.262 | 95.84 | 20.1% |
| Davies | 0.314 | 2.97 | 0.298 | 4.71 | 0.253 | 0.718 | 0.291 | 3.86 | 0.25 | 92.48 | 19.5% |
| Meyer | 0.367 | 6.35 | 0.249 | 0.746 | 0.319 | 6.73 | 0.267 | 0.00 | 25.3% | ||
| Fister | 0.365 | 5.04 | 0.307 | 3.60 | 0.256 | 0.720 | 0.300 | 4.68 | 0.277 | 82.73 | 14.4% |
| Paxton | 0.380 | 4.80 | 0.292 | 3.70 | 0.259 | 0.744 | 0.325 | 3.45 | 0.268 | 93.06 | 20.5% |
| Gibson | 0.339 | 4.75 | 0.311 | 3.98 | 0.251 | 0.740 | 0.303 | 4.32 | 0.268 | 100.02 | 16.8% |
| Hamels | 0.279 | 2.50 | 0.306 | 3.83 | 0.249 | 0.703 | 0.295 | 3.75 | 0.238 | 102.90 | 24.0% |
| Graveman | 0.333 | 3.66 | 0.319 | 4.65 | 0.260 | 0.749 | 0.295 | 4.54 | 0.272 | 90.90 | 14.2% |
| Gray | 0.299 | 4.18 | 0.328 | 5.11 | 0.253 | 0.748 | 0.323 | 3.52 | 0.252 | 91.14 | 24.9% |
| Kazmir | 0.307 | 4.10 | 0.312 | 3.60 | 0.261 | 0.725 | 0.283 | 4.19 | 0.24 | 94.89 | 21.4% |
| Suarez | 0.321 | 3.69 | 0.351 | 4.61 | 0.237 | 0.682 | 0.282 | 4.53 | 0.256 | 62.10 | 15.7% |
| Jackson | 0.322 | 3.56 | 0.333 | 5.63 | 0.262 | 0.734 | 0.286 | 4.68 | 0.256 | 0.00 | 16.6% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Anthony DeSclafani CIN (at MIL) – DeSclafani is coming off what was arguably his roughest start of the season, with six runs (four earned) given up to the Pirates over 4.0 innings of work. It was an uncharacteristic lapse for a pitcher who had gone 6.0 or more innings in five straight starts, four of them earning the quality start label, including a four-hit shutout of the Diamondbacks that included nine strikeouts against one walk. DeSclafani punched out eight Brewers in six frames the one time that he faced them this season, with three runs allowed in the baseline quality start, a 23.90-point game on DraftKings which itself seems like a decent baseline for expectations in tonight’s start.
Jameson Taillon PIT (vs. WAS) – To invest in Taillon’s services is to entrust a truncated pitch count, as the rookie has been capped at 102 pitches in a ballgame and has been kept at 95 throws or under in all but three of his outings. Essentially, he’s a six-inning pitcher, though Taillon has spiked a pair of eight-inning starts this year that happen to be his only two games that stretched the sixth inning. He hasn’t punched out more than five batters in a game since his last eight-inning (and eight-strikeout) start back in August, tempering some enthusiasm, but the upside in the rearview mirror might appear be closer than it appears.
Drew Pomeranz BOS (at TB) – The southpaw has been off-kilter his last two starts, lasting a combined 5.2 innings while giving up nine runs on 11 hits (including three homers) and four walks. The good news is that he’s theoretically fresh in terms of workload, given that he has thrown just 63 and 64 pitches, respectively, over his past two starts, though it is ominous that Pomeranz’s medicals are at the center of the A.J. Preller investigation.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (at PIT) – Left-handers are supposed to dominate the Braves, but Gio has faced Atlanta in two of his last three starts and been blasted in both turns. The combined damage: 12 runs on 17 hits in 7.1 innings. He did get 11 strikeouts – granted, Gio faced a total of 39 batters – and hey he didn’t walk anybody. Sandwiched between the Braves games was a solid one-run start against the Nats and he had a pair of good outings to finish August; the Braves just have his number.
Jeremy Hellickson PHI (at NYM) – Helix is coming off his best game of the year, a three-hit shutout of the Marlins, which came on the heels of a strong start against the Pirates. He managed just 11 strikeouts across 15.1 innings in the two games, but Ks aren’t really his style, as Hellickson has staked his claim on relevance in Philadelphia on the strength of his run prevention.
Francisco Liriano TOR (vs. NYY) – Liriano threw his 1500th career inning in his last turn, a performance that earned a quality start thanks to a pair of runs that were unearned. He’s had a better run of things in Toronto than he did in Pittsburgh, but even that optimism is relative, but his 3.89 ERA and 36:13 K:BB looks even better if you take out his stints from the bullpen. He has ramped back up to a starter’s workload, tossing 94 pitches in his last start, , so he will go as far as his pitch-count efficiency can take him.
Michael Fulmer DET (vs. KC) – Cinderella has lost her glass slipper. Fulmer threw a four-hit, nine-K shutout on August 19th in Texas against the Rangers, but in his five game since Fulmer has been a punching bag: a 6.28 ERA with an insufficient 17:7 K:BB over 28.2 innings.
Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. CHW)
Zach Davies MIL (vs. CIN)
Scott Kazmir LAD (vs. COL) – Expect a short leash in Kazmir’s first game back from the disabled list, especially given how careful the Dodgers have been with all of their starters down the stretch.
Kendall Graveman OAK (vs. TEX)
Miguel Gonzalez CHW (at CLE)
James Paxton SEA (at MIN)
Albert Suarez SF (at SD)
Doug Fister HOU (vs. LAA)
Mike Leake STL (at CHC)
Matt Wisler ATL (at MIA)
Andrew Cashner MIA (vs. ATL)
Gabriel Ynoa NYM (vs. PHI)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Edwin Jackson SD (vs. SF)
Kyle Gibson MIN (vs, SEA)
Yovani Gallardo BAL (vs. ARI)
Alex Meyer LAA (at HOU)
Bryan Mitchell NYY (at TOR)
Shelby Miller ARI (at BAL) – Expect the Baltimore stack to be a popular play in both tournaments and cash games, as the Orioles look to push Miller’s ERA over 7.00 for the season.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window