Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, April 23rd
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hughes | MIN | WAS | 167.2 | 4.40 | 4.28 | 1.27 | 45.0% | 15.0% | 2.3% | 1.66 | 0.90 |
| Roark | WAS | MIN | 122 | 4.20 | 4.26 | 1.34 | 52.6% | 14.9% | 6.2% | 1.25 | 1.57 |
| Snell | TBR | NYY | |||||||||
| Tanaka | NYY | TBR | 171.2 | 3.46 | 3.34 | 1.00 | 66.7% | 22.8% | 4.7% | 1.36 | 1.51 |
| Bassitt | OAK | TOR | 105.1 | 3.42 | 4.47 | 1.26 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 0.60 | 1.38 | |
| Happ | TOR | OAK | 184 | 3.52 | 3.89 | 1.28 | 30.8% | 20.7% | 6.4% | 0.83 | 1.18 |
| Kluber | CLE | DET | 241 | 3.70 | 3.03 | 1.08 | 57.1% | 27.2% | 5.2% | 0.90 | 1.19 |
| Sanchez | DET | CLE | 172.2 | 4.95 | 4.06 | 1.30 | 41.2% | 21.0% | 7.8% | 1.67 | 1.02 |
| Lewis | TEX | CWS | 222.2 | 4.61 | 4.39 | 1.25 | 11.8% | 17.0% | 5.1% | 1.25 | 0.76 |
| Rodon | CWS | TEX | 152.1 | 3.54 | 4.19 | 1.42 | 22.8% | 11.6% | 0.71 | 1.61 | |
| Buchholz | BOS | HOU | 122.1 | 3.75 | 3.49 | 1.26 | 33.3% | 22.6% | 5.6% | 0.66 | 1.47 |
| Fiers | HOU | BOS | 197 | 3.93 | 3.85 | 1.26 | 23.0% | 7.8% | 1.37 | 0.92 | |
| Lackey | CHC | CIN | 230.2 | 2.93 | 3.91 | 1.22 | 57.9% | 19.6% | 6.0% | 0.90 | 1.36 |
| Straily | CIN | CHC | 25 | 4.68 | 4.46 | 1.24 | 14.3% | 20.0% | 10.9% | 1.08 | 0.87 |
| Matz | NYM | ATL | 44.1 | 3.25 | 3.62 | 1.29 | 23.5% | 7.5% | 1.02 | 1.39 | |
| Chacin | ATL | NYM | 38 | 3.08 | 3.50 | 1.13 | 18.2% | 22.9% | 6.5% | 0.95 | 1.55 |
| Morton | PHI | MIL | 145.1 | 4.71 | 3.86 | 1.36 | 50.0% | 17.8% | 7.8% | 0.87 | 2.73 |
| Anderson | MIL | PHI | 163.2 | 4.01 | 4.23 | 1.27 | 40.0% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 0.99 | 1.20 |
| Worley | BAL | KCR | 82.1 | 4.15 | 4.17 | 1.41 | 40.0% | 16.8% | 6.7% | 0.87 | 1.42 |
| Medlen | KCR | BAL | 69.2 | 3.75 | 4.34 | 1.29 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 0.78 | 1.54 | |
| Maeda | LAD | COL | 19 | 0.47 | 3.64 | 0.95 | 20.6% | 5.5% | 0.47 | 1.53 | |
| Chatwood | COL | LAD | 19.1 | 2.79 | 3.75 | 1.14 | 25.0% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 0.93 | 1.89 |
| Nicasio | PIT | ARI | 73.1 | 4.05 | 3.78 | 1.51 | 35.7% | 25.4% | 12.1% | 0.37 | 1.26 |
| De La Rosa | ARI | PIT | 198.1 | 4.90 | 4.17 | 1.38 | 57.1% | 18.6% | 7.8% | 1.54 | 1.53 |
| Wacha | STL | SDP | 197.2 | 3.32 | 3.96 | 1.23 | 53.3% | 20.2% | 7.3% | 0.87 | 1.49 |
| Vargas | SDP | STL | |||||||||
| Fernandez | MIA | SFG | 75.1 | 3.23 | 2.67 | 1.15 | 75.0% | 31.5% | 5.8% | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Peavy | SFG | MIA | 119.2 | 4.06 | 4.30 | 1.22 | 42.1% | 17.4% | 5.3% | 0.98 | 0.84 |
| Hernandez | SEA | LAA | 219.2 | 3.32 | 3.46 | 1.18 | 81.0% | 23.3% | 7.9% | 0.94 | 2.11 |
| Santiago | LAA | SEA | 194.1 | 3.61 | 4.46 | 1.24 | 16.7% | 20.7% | 8.9% | 1.48 | 0.59 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jose Fernandez MIA (at SF) – One of the most critical aspects to Fern’s development this season is that he becomes more economical with his pitches. He has the ability to strike out every batter that he sees, but his fantasy managers would like to see him get past the sixth inning before the 100-pitch hook comes out to rob the electric Fern from the main stage. The pitcher-friendly venue of AT&T Park will provide some of the defense, but Fernandez will need to trim his 4.33 pitches per plate appearance – the second-highest mark in the National League among qualifying starting pitchers – if he is to transcend to the elite level of greatness of which we know he is capable.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Felix Hernandez SEA (at LAA) – King Felix had his start pushed back a day due to illness. Here’s what I said yesterday: “The run prevention stats would lead us to believe that King Felix is back to claim his throne atop the heap of American League pitchers, but a look beneath the surface raises more questions that it answers. Hernandez has been uncharacteristically wild, walking five or more batters in two of his three starts and giving away 13 total free passes in the 18.1 innings that he has pitched this season. He had a truly dominant start against the A’s – he gets one of those every April – in which he struck out 10 and allowed five baserunners across 7.0 blank frames. He was less than stellar in his other two turns, and tonight he faces an Angels club that is led by Mike Trout, whose career slash of .354/.389/.646 is more impressive when considering that Trout has faced Felix 30 more times than any other pitcher in his career.”
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (vs. TB) – Tanaka has been a marvel over the past couple of seasons. He has a known tear in his UCL, a factor which seemingly creates a ticking time-bomb scenario with an indeterminable value on the clock before the Tommy John scalpel comes calling. Perhaps more concerning is that, while remarkable that he has stayed this effective for this long, Tanaka has not shown the type of dominance that was regularly on display during his rookie season, such that one wonders whether the injury is compromising his current performance while threatening his mound-status for the future.
Corey Kluber CLE (at DET) – Kluber is one of my favorite pitchers in the game, with A-grade mechanics and a two-headed monster of a slider that can trace a two-plane trajectory or a more vertical shape based on Kluber’s will (and his pitch command). The slydra is a truly devastating pitch that can be responsible for silly-looking strikeout numbers, and even in his darkest times the hard-breaking pitch has proven to be an effective weapon of choice; this year, batters have just two hits but 13 strikeouts in at-bats that end on the slydra. That said, this is a tentative raise for a pitcher who frequently deserves all-in status, as his performance to date has left him with a 6.16 ERA on the back of his baseball card, and the Tigers pose an intimidating obstacle for Kluber to clear – though the recent struggles of Miguel Cabrera will lower those hurdles slightly.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hughes | 0.323 | 4.12 | 0.361 | 4.71 | 0.247 | 0.713 | 0.304 | 4.61 | 0.289 | 0.01 | 15.0% |
| Roark | 0.348 | 3.92 | 0.323 | 4.64 | 0.242 | 0.696 | 0.298 | 4.62 | 0.275 | 0.00 | 14.9% |
| Snell | 0.255 | 0.743 | |||||||||
| Tanaka | 0.282 | 3.86 | 0.287 | 3.08 | 0.246 | 0.699 | 0.243 | 3.89 | 0.215 | 0.01 | 22.8% |
| Bassitt | 0.283 | 3.03 | 0.328 | 3.98 | 0.263 | 0.782 | 0.278 | 3.90 | 0.237 | 0.01 | 17.3% |
| Happ | 0.298 | 2.36 | 0.306 | 3.78 | 0.252 | 0.703 | 0.314 | 3.45 | 0.261 | 0.01 | 20.7% |
| Kluber | 0.325 | 4.05 | 0.245 | 3.34 | 0.268 | 0.735 | 0.302 | 3.01 | 0.233 | 0.01 | 27.2% |
| Sanchez | 0.301 | 4.12 | 0.370 | 5.86 | 0.253 | 0.724 | 0.280 | 4.79 | 0.251 | 0.01 | 21.0% |
| Lewis | 0.329 | 4.60 | 0.314 | 4.62 | 0.250 | 0.693 | 0.291 | 4.31 | 0.263 | 0.00 | 17.0% |
| Rodon | 0.240 | 3.45 | 0.353 | 3.99 | 0.255 | 0.735 | 0.309 | 3.85 | 0.243 | 0.01 | 22.8% |
| Buchholz | 0.287 | 3.04 | 0.320 | 4.13 | 0.249 | 0.751 | 0.328 | 3.05 | 0.261 | 0.01 | 22.6% |
| Fiers | 0.297 | 3.45 | 0.332 | 4.37 | 0.262 | 0.735 | 0.285 | 4.25 | 0.242 | 0.01 | 23.0% |
| Lackey | 0.331 | 3.10 | 0.268 | 2.65 | 0.248 | 0.702 | 0.297 | 3.61 | 0.253 | 0.01 | 19.6% |
| Straily | 0.286 | 5.06 | 0.288 | 3.21 | 0.247 | 0.732 | 0.229 | 4.73 | 0.2 | 0.03 | 20.0% |
| Matz | 0.288 | 3.38 | 0.226 | 0.625 | 0.309 | 3.63 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 23.5% | ||
| Chacin | 0.369 | 5.87 | 0.209 | 1.19 | 0.243 | 0.707 | 0.279 | 3.44 | 0.231 | 0.03 | 22.9% |
| Morton | 0.379 | 6.17 | 0.270 | 3.35 | 0.256 | 0.708 | 0.306 | 4.10 | 0.263 | 0.01 | 17.8% |
| Anderson | 0.319 | 3.60 | 0.336 | 4.52 | 0.244 | 0.678 | 0.300 | 3.99 | 0.263 | 0.01 | 17.6% |
| Worley | 0.344 | 3.60 | 0.317 | 4.47 | 0.264 | 0.729 | 0.321 | 3.92 | 0.279 | 0.01 | 16.8% |
| Medlen | 0.311 | 3.96 | 0.303 | 3.51 | 0.256 | 0.762 | 0.284 | 3.99 | 0.245 | 0.01 | 17.7% |
| Maeda | 0.200 | 0.269 | 0.777 | 0.250 | 3.00 | 0.206 | 0.07 | 20.6% | |||
| Chatwood | 0.222 | 0.00 | 0.246 | 0.731 | 0.286 | 3.68 | 0.26 | 0.05 | 15.0% | ||
| Nicasio | 0.395 | 6.23 | 0.274 | 3.14 | 0.265 | 0.739 | 0.348 | 3.06 | 0.254 | 0.00 | 25.4% |
| De La Rosa | 0.403 | 7.04 | 0.273 | 2.97 | 0.266 | 0.736 | 0.291 | 4.86 | 0.263 | 0.01 | 18.6% |
| Wacha | 0.267 | 3.12 | 0.318 | 3.49 | 0.242 | 0.681 | 0.284 | 3.70 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 20.2% |
| Vargas | 0.262 | 0.746 | |||||||||
| Fernandez | 0.361 | 4.50 | 0.209 | 2.19 | 0.266 | 0.745 | 0.344 | 2.21 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 31.5% |
| Peavy | 0.318 | 3.73 | 0.332 | 4.65 | 0.256 | 0.683 | 0.291 | 3.81 | 0.257 | 0.01 | 17.4% |
| Hernandez | 0.303 | 3.92 | 0.284 | 2.66 | 0.247 | 0.702 | 0.281 | 3.68 | 0.229 | 0.01 | 23.3% |
| Santiago | 0.276 | 2.19 | 0.316 | 3.91 | 0.259 | 0.725 | 0.249 | 4.80 | 0.224 | 0.01 | 20.7% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Carlos Rodon CHW (vs. TEX) – What a difference a half-hour can make. Rodon entered his last start with a low 1.38 ERA, seemingly ready to shed his volatility of youth and start establishing himself as a go-to rock near the top of the White Sox rotation. Forty-one pitches, eight baserunners, five runs and just one out later, and Rodon was being yanked from the contest with an ERA that had more than tripled over the span of nine batters. He was essentially dinked to death, as all six of the hits off of Rodon in the game were singles and the opposing Angels had a 1.000 BABiP against Rodon on the afternoon. I agree with the White Sox move to pull him in the first inning after 40 pitches, as an underappreciated aspect of fatigue and workloads is the impact of single innings with extremely high pitch counts, and the Rodon’s long-term future is much more important than any individual ballgame. Rodon may have exerted himself more in that one frame than he does in 100 pitches spread out over five-to-six innings, due to the compounding nature of fatigue within innings.
Blake Snell TB (at NYY) – “Hey kid, welcome to the league. Let’s see, your first start will be… at Yankee Stadium. Go get ‘em.” Snell received the call-up to make his first major-league start, where he’ll take on the division-rival Yankees in the Bronx. Some sites may not have Snell as an option because he is so new to the database, but for those who have the option of invest he makes for a volatile option whose minor-league track record is littered with strikeouts and walks. It’s a recipe for a short outing in his debut, particularly if his minor-league rates of 4.5 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 are further dented in the translation from the minors to the majors.
John Lackey CHC (at CIN) – Lackey was masterful in his last start, blanking his old club, the Cardinals, over 7.0 frames, striking out 11 batters and allowing just five baserunners in the ballgame. The K count was higher than in any one of his 33 starts last season (he had different two turns with 10 Ks apiece), and Lackey continued to be extremely economical with his pitches. He has now thrown more than six full frames in each of his three outings and has yet to exceed 91 pitches in any one of them, with the 91 count coming in the even-inning mastery of the Cards. He was even pitch-efficient when getting crushed, requiring just 84 pitches in his first start to go six full innings, face 26 batters and give up six runs.
Michael Wacha STL (at SD) – The Padres bats are starting to awaken from their early-season hibernation, such that pitchers don’t necessarily receive the massive rankings jump when facing the Padres that they enjoyed a week ago. He was roughed up a bit in his first start of the year, lasting just 4.1 innings as he gave up five runs and 10 hits to the Pirates, but his last two turns have been much more impressive: 6.0 innings in each game, with 12 strikeouts, two walks and one earned run allowed in the dozen total frames. In the last game, Wacha required just 80 pitches to face 24 batters and log his 18 outs against the Reds. Even with the Padres bats awake, Wacha’s opponents today more closely resemble the light fare of his last turn than the type of threat to be avoided.
Steven Matz NYM (at ATL) – Matz had a forgettable opening to the 2016 season, surrendering seven runs to the Marlins without escaping the second inning, but he rebounded in a big way against the Indians in start no. 2, including nine strikeouts and just five total base runners across 7.0 innings of shutout baseball. The results were so disparate that it completely opens up the range of possible outcomes for today’s outing, but Matz receives the benefit of the doubt due to his facing the light-hitting Braves, whose best hitter (by a healthy margin) is neutralized by platoon splits, as Freddie Freeman loses 113 points off of his career slugging percentage when facing southpaws like Matz – Freeman has a career slug of .499 against right-handed pitchers but just .386 when facing fellow lefties.
Hector Santiago LAA (vs. SEA) – The veteran’s velocity has spiked a bit in the first few weeks of the 2016 season, averaging 93.0 mph on his fastball after four straight seasons of declining velo that had seen his pitch-speed tumble to last year’s average of 90.9 mph. I tend to excuse small velo lapses in April due to the expectation that pitchers will increase velocity as the season progresses, but it captures my attention when a player kicks off the season with radar-gun readings that are higher than what we have seen over the past couple of seasons. Santiago has outperformed his peripherals throughout his career, such that his career FIP of 4.51 is exactly 1.00 higher than his ERA since day one. It might not be pretty, but it is pretty effective.
Anibal Sanchez DET (vs. CLE)
Charlie Morton PHI (at MIL)
J.A. Happ TOR (vs. OAK)
Clay Buchholz BOS (at HOU)
Jhoulys Chacin ATL (vs. NYM)
Mike Fiers HOU (vs. BOS)
Chase Anderson MIL (vs. PHI)
Tanner Roark WAS (vs. MIN)
Kris Medlen KC (vs. BAL)
Kenta Maeda LAD (at COL) – Can Maeda conquer altitude? The guess here is: No.
Rubby de la Rosa ARI (vs. PIT)
Phil Hughes MIN (at WAS)
Colby Lewis TEX (at CHW)
Jake Peavy SF (vs. MIA)
Juan Nicasio PIT (at ARI)
Cesar Vargas SD (vs. STL) – Vargas makes his major-league debut tonight against the Cardinals. His minor-league track record is pretty solid, particularly the 0.3 HR/9 over 469 innings in the bush leagues, but the strength of his opponent and his mdoest prospect status conspire against rostering Vargas in his first start in the majors.
Tyler Wilson BAL (at KC)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Chris Bassitt OAK (at TOR)
Dan Straily CIN (vs. CHC)
Tyler Chatwood COL (vs. LAD)
