Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, July 30th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-07-31 03:10:55

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Gallardo	BAL	TOR	246.1	3.91	4.86	1.47	50.0%	15.4%	9.5%	0.84	1.47
Happ	TOR	BAL	296	3.47	4.02	1.23	30.8%	20.6%	6.7%	0.91	1.20
Miley	SEA	CHC	298.2	4.73	4.39	1.39	33.3%	17.2%	7.6%	1.05	1.52
Arrieta	CHC	SEA	356.1	2.12	3.05	0.94	50.0%	26.8%	6.8%	0.45	2.28
Lopez	WAS	SFG
Peavy	SFG	WAS	215.1	4.47	4.48	1.25	42.1%	17.9%	6.3%	1.13	0.81
Eovaldi	NYY	TBR	265	4.45	4.11	1.42	50.0%	18.3%	7.4%	0.98	1.86
Smyly	TBR	NYY	178	4.55	3.68	1.28	50.0%	25.1%	6.7%	1.62	0.74
Verlander	DET	HOU	271.2	3.51	3.81	1.09	35.0%	23.5%	6.5%	0.99	0.79
De La Rosa	COL	NYM	228	4.70	4.34	1.45	40.0%	20.0%	10.2%	1.14	1.74
Colon	NYM	COL	310.1	3.86	4.13	1.22	42.1%	16.6%	3.5%	1.19	1.21
Gonzalez	CWS	MIN	233	4.67	4.54	1.37	40.0%	17.9%	8.3%	1.27	1.15
Milone	MIN	CWS	183	4.23	4.47	1.34	43.8%	16.2%	6.6%	1.33	1.29
Overton	OAK	CLE	15	8.40	5.76	1.93		13.7%	6.9%	3.60	0.41
Tomlin	CLE	OAK	179.1	3.31	3.91	1.01	23.1%	19.1%	2.8%	1.86	0.99
Hellickson	PHI	ATL	271.2	4.17	4.07	1.23		19.9%	6.2%	1.36	1.15
Teheran	ATL	PHI	330.1	3.51	4.08	1.17	70.0%	21.1%	7.5%	1.17	1.04
Taillon	PIT	MIL	40	3.83	3.51	1.20		19.3%	3.1%	1.35	2.21
Anderson	MIL	PIT	247.2	4.72	4.49	1.36	40.0%	17.5%	7.2%	1.31	1.08
Garcia	STL	MIA	247.2	3.16	3.70	1.19	28.6%	19.1%	6.9%	0.62	2.59
Rea	MIA	STL	131	4.81	4.71	1.41		17.7%	9.6%	0.96	1.44
Kennedy	KCR	TEX	282.2	4.33	3.78	1.27	47.6%	24.3%	7.6%	1.81	0.86
Perez	TEX	KCR	204	4.41	4.87	1.45	37.5%	12.1%	8.6%	0.71	2.23
Desclafani	CIN	SDP	240	3.83	4.07	1.33	20.0%	19.5%	6.5%	0.90	1.27
Friedrich	SDP	CIN	126.2	5.12	4.60	1.65		17.5%	10.1%	0.92	1.42
Pomeranz	BOS	LAA	197	3.20	3.72	1.15	25.0%	25.7%	9.4%	0.87	1.22
Santiago	LAA	BOS	296.1	3.86	4.57	1.28	16.7%	20.8%	9.6%	1.46	0.65
Shipley	ARI	LAD
Kazmir	LAD	ARI	292.2	3.57	4.01	1.23	63.2%	22.1%	8.0%	1.14	1.12

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

The top end of today’s pitcher pool is very shallow, and though there is one player available who has been a mainstay in the All-in category this season, a recent string of difficult outings has knocked him from that perch. There are only a handful of Raise-worthy options today as well, forcing some managers to go dumpster-diving in order to fill out a full DFS lineup.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Julio Teheran ATL (vs. PHI) – Teheran pulled up lame halfway through his last start, departing in the fifth inning against the Rockies in Colorado, where he had blanked the Rox at altitude for the first four frames of the game. Teheran suffered a strained oat that prematurely ended his day, but the right-hander silenced the Rockies for 11.0 combined innings in back-to-back games as part of a home-and-home series, striking out eight batters and allowing just three walks over the stretch. Teheran has only topped eight strikeouts in a game twice this season and they both took place in May, while July has been a low-K month with just 16 punchouts in 23.2 innings pitched this month,

Jake Arrieta CHC (vs. SEA) – Perhaps I was too hasty in proclaiming that Jake Arrieta was back after one strong start against the Mets, as the right-harder turned around and posted a line that fit right in with his other sketch outings recently. Four of his last five starts have been on the road, and in each of those four starts he has given up four or more runs and thrown 6.0 or fewer innings. He has also allowed at least one home run in each of those four road games, a high total for a pitcher that allowed only three total homers in his first 15 starts of the season. Arrieta has yet to allow a home run at home this season, and continuing that streak would go a long way toward his getting back on track.

Justin Verlander DET (vs. HOU) – Verlander has been pitching like an ace for the month of July, with just six earned runs allowed across five starts (1.60 ERA), including a K:BB of 37:11 in 33.2 innings. He came one out shy of making it a five-game string of quality starts, while three of the games featured at least 7.0 innings pitched. His last start was most impressive due to his opponent, as Verlander limited the juggernaut Red Sox to just one run on five hits in 6.0 frames, and today’s opponent can be a doubled-edged sword that is just as likely to elevate his K rate as inflate his ERA. Verlander has gone deep into ballgames throughout the season, giving him a higher DFS ceiling due to the extra counting stats, as Verlander has tossed 7.0 or more innings in 12 of his 21 starts this season.

Drew Pomeranz BOS (at LAA) – Pomeranz had a much better experience in his second start for Boston than he did in the first, limiting the Tigers to two runs over six innings at Fenway Park after getting chased after 3.0 innings and five runs allowed in Fenway the first time around. He struck out seven batters, the seventh time in his last eight starts that Pomeranz has struck out six or seven hitters in the game, with only his abbreviated outing two starts ago standing out as the exception. He has spiked a couple of high-strikeout efforts this season but has never fallen below a four-count in a game, and over the last six weeks Pomeranz has abided by a pretty strict K-per-inning regimen from game to game.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Gallardo	0.348	4.98	0.312	2.91	0.260	0.783	0.306	4.27	0.27	0.00	15.4%
Happ	0.297	3.29	0.303	3.52	0.240	0.680	0.296	3.65	0.249	0.00	20.6%
Miley	0.298	4.26	0.342	4.87	0.250	0.746	0.307	4.23	0.27	0.00	17.2%
Arrieta	0.230	1.71	0.241	2.48	0.251	0.744	0.251	2.58	0.189	0.01	26.8%
Lopez					0.265	0.739
Peavy	0.329	4.37	0.317	4.57	0.246	0.721	0.285	4.12	0.253	0.00	17.9%
Eovaldi	0.356	4.54	0.299	4.38	0.241	0.702	0.319	3.99	0.275	0.00	18.3%
Smyly	0.289	4.38	0.337	4.60	0.257	0.729	0.305	4.24	0.255	0.01	25.1%
Fiers	0.301	3.82	0.343	4.27	0.268	0.746	0.294	4.30	0.254	0.00	20.8%
Verlander	0.273	2.90	0.290	4.12	0.250	0.753	0.266	3.57	0.221	0.01	23.5%
De La Rosa	0.318	5.21	0.346	4.73	0.243	0.723	0.303	4.50	0.258	0.00	20.0%
Colon	0.319	3.74	0.309	3.98	0.271	0.780	0.298	3.97	0.27	0.00	16.6%
Gonzalez	0.341	4.07	0.324	5.24	0.244	0.702	0.295	4.65	0.262	0.00	17.9%
Milone	0.290	3.77	0.337	4.37	0.249	0.682	0.289	4.55	0.265	0.00	16.2%
Overton			0.465	6.17	0.264	0.726	0.346	8.01	0.353	0.00	13.7%
Tomlin	0.256	2.64	0.336	3.87	0.250	0.703	0.239	4.71	0.233	0.01	19.1%
Hellickson	0.339	4.22	0.310	4.15	0.249	0.674	0.280	4.31	0.248	0.00	19.9%
Teheran	0.351	4.56	0.248	2.65	0.243	0.684	0.267	4.15	0.23	0.00	21.1%
Taillon	0.346	4.44	0.301	2.87	0.253	0.710	0.314	3.99	0.277	0.03	19.3%
Anderson	0.306	4.10	0.367	5.28	0.262	0.731	0.298	4.59	0.267	0.00	17.5%
Garcia	0.277	2.75	0.284	3.27	0.274	0.737	0.286	3.41	0.24	0.00	19.1%
Rea	0.314	4.22	0.346	5.49	0.262	0.760	0.293	4.44	0.254	0.00	17.7%
Kennedy	0.350	4.68	0.329	4.01	0.259	0.743	0.285	4.84	0.246	0.00	24.3%
Perez	0.242	1.84	0.348	5.12	0.273	0.736	0.301	4.29	0.275	0.00	12.1%
Desclafani	0.351	4.65	0.289	2.88	0.238	0.683	0.318	3.73	0.269	0.00	19.5%
Friedrich	0.304	4.57	0.364	5.42	0.247	0.715	0.337	4.33	0.288	0.00	17.5%
Pomeranz	0.240	1.82	0.287	3.79	0.247	0.707	0.260	3.50	0.205	0.00	25.7%
Santiago	0.293	2.86	0.323	4.18	0.278	0.777	0.254	4.84	0.227	0.00	20.8%
Shipley					0.248	0.734
Kazmir	0.304	4.03	0.304	3.39	0.267	0.769	0.278	4.09	0.234	0.00	22.1%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Anthony DeSclafani CIN (at SD) – The right-hander is coming off the worst start of his injury-shortened season, having allowed five runs to the Giants over 5.0 innings with a a pair of homers igniting the explosion. Prior to that, DeSclafani was on a six-game run of quality starts, with just three walks allowed over that span (41.2 innings) – he gave away more home runs (4) than free passes. He struck out six batters against a Giants lineup that has the third-fewest Ks in baseball this season and now he gets to take on a lineup that lies on the opposite end of the strikeout spectrum, as the Padres have the second-most batter Ks in the majors.

J.A. Happ TOR (vs. BAL) – Through is first 16 starts of 2016, Happ only struck out more than five batters in two different outings, with a total of just 69 punchouts in 99.2 innings pitched; but something has been lit under him in July, as the left-hander has cranked out five or more strikeouts in every start, including season-high counts of 11 and nine strikeouts, respectively, in his first two starts of the month. All told, he already has 31 strikeouts in 24.1 July innings to go along with tidy 1.48 ERA for the month. The Orioles form a more imposing hurdle than any of the four team that Happ had faced so far this month, but. He catches them at a good time when most of the household names in that lineup (Machado, Davis, Trumbo) are struggling.

Josh Tomlin CLE (vs. OAK) – Tomlin leads the American League in K/BB ratio with a 6.67 mark, an impressive number in its own right, though pitchers with extremely low walk rates tend to put up some goofy-looking K/BB figures that can look ridiculous when viewed on a leaderboard (see Phil Hughes, 2014). Tomlin’s 2.6-percent walk rate is the lowest in the American League and only trails Clayton Kershaw when zooming out to cover all of the bigs. Meanwhile, the A’s are doing their best to shuck the Moneyball perceptions of old, taking the third-fewest walks in baseball. The over/under for Tomlin’s walk total in this game is set at 0.5.

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (at ATL) – Hellickson’s changeup has been one of the deadliest pitches in the major leagues this season, with a 55-percent rate of whiffs-per-swing that tops all other pitch types by all other pitchers. The Braves, meanwhile, carry the lowest OPS and fewest runs-per-game in the majors giving him a chance to further lower his 3.65 ERA. Helix has drastically cut into his hits and walks allowed in 2016 but the homer issues that have plagued the right-hander throughout his career are as bad as ever (1.4 HR/9); fortunately, he is facing the lineup that has by far the fewest home runs in all of baseball, potentially allowing him to escape unscathed and emerge with an excellent fantasy line.

Jameson Taillon PIT (at MIL) – Taillon has been very efficient with his pitch counts in the two starts since returning from the disabled list, particularly in the first game back, as he needed just 65 pitches to get through six full innings. In his last turn, Taillon needed only 85 pitches to complete his six full frames, and over the two games he has allowed four runs (3.00 ERA) and 12 hits while striking out 10, but most impressive are the zero walks that he has allowed across the two games. The seven strikeouts from his last start were a temporary career high, but Taillon has a good shot at a big K count against the majors’ most strikeout-prone offense.

Scott Kazmir LAD (vs. ARI) – With a strikeout rate of more than a K-per-frame, Kazmir has select stats that will catch the eye of the fantasy gamer, but his DFS-specific value takes a big hit due to the southpaw’s prevalence toward short outings, a factor which limits his access to strikeouts, innings and wins. He has gone more than six innings in just three of his 20 starts this season, and though he only needs a half-dozen frames to notch double-digit strikeouts – a feat he’s accomplished twice this season – the fact that he hasn’t thrown over 100 pitches in any of his last 11 starts indicates that he has a quick hook.

Jaime Garcia STL (at MIA)

Ian Kennedy KC (at TEX)

Reynaldo Lopez WAS (at SF)

Jake Peavy SF (vs. WAS)

Drew Smyly TB (vs. NYY)

Nate Eovaldi NYY (at TB)

Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. COL)

Braden Shipley ARI (at LAD)

Mike Fiers HOU (at DET)

Martin Perez TEX (vs. KC)

Miguel Gonzalez CHW (at MIN)

Chase Anderson MIL (vs. PIT)