Daily Pitcher Breakdown: September 17th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-18 01:25:22

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Mitchell	NYY	BOS	37	5.59	4.05	1.81		18.5%	10.1%	0.97	2.41
Price	BOS	NYY	426	3.11	3.38	1.12	52.4%	25.1%	5.3%	0.87	1.23
Gonzalez	WAS	ATL	340	4.02	3.89	1.35	46.7%	22.3%	8.4%	0.71	1.75
Collmenter	ATL	WAS	143.1	3.96	4.68	1.29	29.4%	13.4%	5.9%	1.38	0.94
Davies	MIL	CHC	187.1	3.84	4.15	1.23		19.4%	6.7%	0.96	1.51
Arrieta	CHC	MIL	408.1	2.27	3.28	0.95	50.0%	25.6%	7.4%	0.53	2.20
Verlander	DET	CLE	333.1	3.35	3.70	1.05	35.0%	24.7%	6.1%	1.11	0.72
Carrasco	CLE	DET	330	3.49	3.05	1.10		27.6%	5.8%	1.06	1.63
Finnegan	CIN	PIT	212.2	3.94	4.68	1.31		20.7%	11.4%	1.57	1.13
Urena	MIA	PHI	135.1	5.05	4.91	1.43		13.2%	8.3%	0.80	1.54
Hellickson	PHI	MIA	318.1	4.16	4.14	1.25		19.7%	6.3%	1.30	1.14
Andriese	TBR	BAL	176.2	4.33	3.95	1.27		19.4%	5.5%	1.17	1.26
Tillman	BAL	TBR	332	4.36	4.63	1.32	42.9%	17.9%	8.8%	1.03	1.18
Santana	MIN	NYM	271.1	3.71	4.38	1.26	38.9%	18.7%	7.3%	1.00	1.16
Lugo	NYM	MIN	48.2	2.40	4.17	0.99		19.2%	6.2%	0.55	1.17
Gonzalez	CWS	KCR	260	4.43	4.55	1.35	40.0%	17.6%	7.8%	1.18	1.12
Vargas	KCR	CWS	43	3.98	4.70	1.35	68.4%	14.8%	6.6%	1.05	1.02
Alcantara	OAK	TEX
Darvish	TEX	OAK	82.1	3.28	3.23	1.14	55.6%	30.1%	7.3%	1.09	1.05
Norris	LAD	ARI	195.1	5.76	4.29	1.51	26.7%	19.9%	9.2%	1.29	1.43
Miller	ARI	LAD	290	4.22	4.45	1.40	21.1%	18.5%	8.7%	0.81	1.35
Jackson	SDP	COL	123.1	4.31	4.82	1.37	15.0%	16.6%	10.1%	0.95	1.08
Gray	COL	SDP	190.1	4.87	3.87	1.35		23.9%	8.2%	0.95	1.41
Leake	STL	SFG	354.1	4.11	4.05	1.22	45.0%	15.9%	5.1%	1.07	2.02
Samardzija	SFG	STL	397.2	4.55	4.24	1.26	60.0%	18.4%	5.9%	1.18	1.13
Liriano	TOR	LAA	331.1	4.16	3.90	1.35	12.5%	24.7%	10.5%	1.09	1.80
Nolasco	LAA	TOR	214	5.26	4.37	1.36	16.7%	17.9%	5.8%	1.22	1.15
Fiers	HOU	SEA	331.2	4.12	4.10	1.31		20.9%	7.2%	1.33	1.05
Paxton	SEA	HOU	169	3.94	4.01	1.40	50.0%	20.3%	6.9%	0.85	1.54

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Yu Darvish TEX (vs. OAK) – Darvish is coming off a strong start against the Angels, with just one run given up on three hits, a walk and an HBP, with Darvish piling up nine strikeouts in the game, It was a welcome performance from a pitcher who had given up multiple runs in five consecutive games, including four or more tallies in three of those contests, though Darvish was able to hang around to complete the sixth inning in four of those five outings. His K-counts have been interesting over the last six starts, alternating nine-strikeout performance with those of five Ks or less, and the discrepancies have been dictated more by Darvish himself than by his opponents – he managed nine strikeouts against the whiff-avoidant Angels, but then just four punchouts against the trigger-happy Astros in his previous start. The reigns are now off in terms of workload, as Darvish has thrown as many as 110 pitches in one game recently, and the soft Oakland lineup will likely crumble against Darvish, just as it did back on August 17 when he held the A’s to two runs over 7.0 frames, with nine strikeouts in the game. He did give up two homers that day, but since he has only coughed up one home run in four games, covering 23.1 innings.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

The morning slate is absolutely loaded with arms, as five pitchers who would qualify under the Raise tier today will be pitching in the afternoon rather than the evening, including Jake Arrieta, Justin Verlander, David Price, Carlos Carrasco and even Gio Gonzalez against Atlanta. What’s left for the evening is Yu Darvish and a bunch of question marks, none of which qualifies as a Raise candidate. This is the first time this season that we had an All-In option while the Raise category was left barren, a perfect example of how the shape of each day’s pitching slate dictates the flow of DFS roster construction.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Mitchell	0.345	5.17	0.373	5.91	0.275	0.779	0.372	4.38	0.31	0.00	18.5%
Price	0.296	2.84	0.280	3.19	0.254	0.727	0.298	3.06	0.236	0.00	25.1%
Gonzalez	0.270	3.46	0.322	4.19	0.238	0.648	0.320	3.44	0.255	96.40	22.3%
Collmenter	0.326	3.56	0.344	4.32	0.251	0.729	0.281	4.81	0.269	39.08	13.4%
Davies	0.311	2.84	0.294	4.74	0.247	0.738	0.287	3.83	0.247	92.69	19.4%
Arrieta	0.230	2.04	0.244	2.48	0.250	0.712	0.238	2.85	0.184	0.00	25.6%
Verlander	0.273	3.00	0.284	3.70	0.257	0.746	0.261	3.58	0.216	107.64	24.7%
Carrasco	0.293	3.05	0.287	3.86	0.267	0.746	0.296	3.23	0.231	93.00	27.6%
Williams					0.252	0.716
Finnegan	0.294	2.44	0.329	4.42	0.257	0.725	0.247	5.17	0.224	71.39	20.7%
Urena	0.349	5.85	0.308	4.33	0.241	0.684	0.299	4.42	0.271	0.00	13.2%
Hellickson	0.339	4.04	0.308	4.24	0.261	0.702	0.285	4.25	0.251	92.16	19.7%
Andriese	0.316	4.32	0.306	4.34	0.261	0.776	0.301	3.95	0.262	55.63	19.4%
Tillman	0.310	3.62	0.333	5.06	0.245	0.720	0.286	4.32	0.251	96.76	17.9%
Santana	0.318	3.91	0.296	3.53	0.242	0.712	0.286	4.01	0.249	98.32	18.7%
Lugo	0.273	2.89	0.251	2.10	0.248	0.719	0.241	3.41	0.203	0.01	19.2%
Gonzalez	0.333	3.74	0.321	5.10	0.262	0.718	0.296	4.47	0.263	90.53	17.6%
Vargas	0.349	6.35	0.313	3.13	0.254	0.698	0.297	4.30	0.271	76.33	14.8%
Alcantara					0.260	0.750
Darvish	0.276	3.13	0.291	3.40	0.249	0.703	0.294	3.24	0.22	92.64	30.1%
Norris	0.388	6.50	0.312	5.13	0.262	0.734	0.321	4.57	0.274	0.00	19.9%
Miller	0.350	4.63	0.287	3.82	0.253	0.750	0.308	3.92	0.261	94.66	18.5%
Jackson	0.313	3.54	0.316	4.89	0.272	0.787	0.278	4.44	0.247	30.54	16.6%
Gray	0.310	4.48	0.332	5.23	0.237	0.682	0.324	3.71	0.257	0.00	23.9%
Leake	0.317	4.22	0.301	4.01	0.262	0.736	0.285	4.08	0.259	90.63	15.9%
Samardzija	0.345	5.43	0.293	3.71	0.259	0.758	0.293	4.14	0.259	102.08	18.4%
Liriano	0.300	3.79	0.315	4.26	0.246	0.700	0.295	4.06	0.235	92.85	24.7%
Nolasco	0.314	4.28	0.350	6.16	0.257	0.776	0.314	4.19	0.277	0.00	17.9%
Fiers	0.304	3.78	0.344	4.42	0.252	0.742	0.298	4.31	0.257	93.69	20.9%
Paxton	0.380	4.80	0.297	3.76	0.246	0.749	0.328	3.53	0.272	92.87	20.3%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Chris Tillman BAL (vs. TB) – Tillman might rank second, but his expected value is closer to that of the tenth-ranked pitcher on this list than it is to Darvish. Tillman came off the DL and was right back to his old tricks with no restrictions to his workload, as the right-hander threw 105 pitches over six innings in beating the Tigers in his last start, with one run allowed on four hits and a walk. The K counts are typically low with Tillman, but his first start back from injury was encouraging from both a fantasy perspective and that of O’s fans as the club pushes for the postseason. Tonight he gets a Tampa Bay ballclub that he beat in mid-July, giving up one run over 7.0 innings on four hits allowed, a game that sounds an awful lot like his last start. He only had three strikeouts but still accounted for 19.55 points on DraftKings, a number which seems like a decent proxy for his expected performance tonight.

Jeff Samardzija SF (vs. STL) – Samardzija’s scoring-savvy opponent only adds to the question marks surrounding the Shark today, though the fact that he’s pitching at helps to mitigate some of the threat, as Samardzija’s ERA is more than a half-run better when pitching at home this season, with just six of the 23 home runs that he has allowed coming at ATT Park. He entered Raise territory for the first time all season prior to his last start, but giving up four runs to the Padres over 6.0 innings was enough to knock him from that perch for the rest of 2016. That said, he is on a decent run, as the four tallies are the most that he has given up in a game since August 5th, a seven-game stretch that includes a 2.95 ERA and 39:13 K:BB in 42.2 innings, with just two home runs surrendered.

Ervin Santana MIN (at NYM) – Santana’s performance has been on a rollercoaster recently, though his fantasy scores don’t show it, as the right-hander has scores between 13.5-to-15.5 points on DraftKings in each of his past three games. He’s just done it in different ways. The past two games have each included just three hits allowed with a couple walks and an HBP, but the first start of September saw 11 hits in the game. Prior to the calendar flipping to September, Santana had finished August with a 10-K start (a season high) against the Royals followed immediately by a six-run, five-walk disaster versus Toronto. He routinely went seven innings or more over the summer, but Santana has tossed just 16.0 innings in his three September starts.

Francisco Liriano TOR (at LAA) – Liriano has been a far better pitcher with the Blue Jays than he was with the Pirates this season. He’s chopped a run-and-a-half from his ERA, taken five percentage points off his obscene walk rate – now 8.3-percent with the Jays – while simultaneously upping the K rate. He’ll never be mistaken for a control artists, but the difference between Liriano walking 5.5 batters per nine and the 3.3 BB/9 he has compiled with the Jays draws the line between useful and catastrophic. The Jays used Liriano in the bullpen for start the month and he needed just 72 pitches to dispose of the Rays in 6.1 innings of his last start (two runs allowed, three hits, six strikeouts, only one walk), so his pitch count might be somewhat limited in this turn as well. This is a 95-105-pitch starter who can get in his own way to quickly pile up the pitch count, but the high-contact Angels will help him to carve through the lineup.

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. MIA) – Helix has given up some crooked numbers to weak opponents recently, coughing up four or more runs in each of three consecutive games against the Mets, Braves and Marlins leading into his last start. He is coming off 6.1 solid frames against the Pirates, though, with just one run given up (zero earned) on three hits and three walks with six strikeouts in the game. When he faced the Marlins in Miami two turns ago, the Fish racked up nine hits over six innings with just one strikeout, limiting Hellickson to just 4.10 points on DraftKings. The Marlins have an ailing offense that Helix might be able to exploit, but the final results will likely come down to how he fares with runners on base.

Mike Leake STL (at SF) – Leake has been the king of the baseline quality start recently, hitting the minimum thresholds of 6.0 innings pitched and three earned runs allowed a total of three times in his last five starts. These games are sandwiched around a gem in Philly, where he tossed 7.0 scoreless frames and struck out eight batters, the first time that he had whiffed more than five in game wince the outlandish 21 strikeouts that he recorded over two games against the Brewers and Padres around the All-Star break. Prior to his quality-start run – during which he has a 3.68 ERA and 19:8 K:BB in 29.1 innings- Leake was crushed to the tune of 20 runs and 27 hits over a three-start stretch of 16.0 innings pitched. Don’t expect him to be revisited by the clown of double-digit strikeouts, and there’s considerable downside to employing Leake’s services. But if there’s one thing that today’s pitchers have in common, it’s downside.

Jon Gray COL (vs. SD) – Gray has been known to be lights out at home and on the road; he has also been known to be a punching bag both at home and on the road. The upside is palpable, particularly against a Padres club that will likely be swinging early and often, while the threat of thin air should keep his ownership very low, even in massive tournaments. If there was a time to start Gray at home, then this is it, but beware that his fantasy score could go into the negatives in a hurry if things start to unravel. He gave up six runs (five earned) against these Padres under the protection of a marine layer in San Diego, his second straight start with at least five runs tacked to his statline, but his last start of August featured 6.0 scoreless frames against the Dodgers at Coors. We don’t know which version of Gray will show up tonight, but it might be worth a roll of the dice to find out. Not for use in cash games. Break only in need for GPP.

James Paxton SEA (vs. HOU) – His K:BB is impressive, checking in at 93:22 in 102.0 innings this season, but the runs have been pouring in since Paxton came back from the disabled list at the end of August. In four starts, he has rung up a 5.75 ERA despite a 20:4 K:BB in 20.1 innings pitched, including 29 hits allowed over that stretch. The Astros have a tendency to hang crooked numbers on opposing pitchers and they have seen Paxton’s reach-for-the-sky act already this season, pasting the southpaw for six runs and nine hits – with just one strikeout – in 5.0 innings back in mid-July.

Mike Fiers HOU (at SEA)

Miguel Gonzalez CHW (at KC)

Jose Urena MIA (at PHI)

Seth Lugo NYM (vs. MIN) – I know that his 2.40 looks attractive, but this is the same pitcher that posted a 7.73 ERA in Triple-A this season over 73.1 innings. The low walks rate is legit but so is the modest strikeout rate; what’s not legit are the 6.7 H/9 and .250 BABiP that he has allowed thus far in the majors, numbers that are sure to rise. He is fortunate to have a soft opponent, facing a Twins lineup that is lacking one Miguel Sano, but Brian Dozier has to be licking his chops at the opportunity for the leadoff hitter to face Lugo three times in this game.

Raul Alcantara OAK (at TEX)

Trevor Williams PIT (at CIN)

Brock Stewart LAD (at ARI)