Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, August 2nd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-03 02:18:22

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Bumgarner	SFG	PHI	369	2.59	3.10	1.00	47.6%	27.5%	5.1%	0.88	1.08
Eflin	PHI	SFG	55.1	4.23	5.18	1.19		11.8%	5.2%	1.14	0.93
Darvish	TEX	BAL	32	3.09	2.89	1.13	55.6%	34.1%	8.3%	0.84	1.27
Bundy	BAL	TEX	52	3.46	3.94	1.42		21.8%	7.1%	1.38	0.71
Shields	CWS	DET	325.1	4.20	4.22	1.39	42.9%	21.7%	9.5%	1.47	1.25
Sanchez	DET	CWS	251.2	5.58	4.23	1.41	41.2%	20.6%	8.3%	1.68	1.00
Ventura	KCR	TBR	277.2	4.41	4.11	1.32	44.4%	20.4%	8.8%	1.00	1.72
Andriese	TBR	KCR	137.2	3.40	4.02	1.18		18.3%	6.2%	0.78	1.39
Carrasco	CLE	MIN	275.1	3.24	3.05	1.06		27.7%	6.3%	1.01	1.67
Tanaka	NYY	NYM	288	3.34	3.60	1.05	66.7%	21.4%	4.7%	1.16	1.50
Degrom	NYM	NYY	303.2	2.55	3.19	1.02	50.0%	26.1%	5.2%	0.77	1.35
Cole	PIT	ATL	295.1	2.65	3.48	1.14	28.6%	23.0%	5.6%	0.43	1.58
Foltynewicz	ATL	PIT	153.2	5.10	4.22	1.48		19.8%	6.9%	1.76	0.89
Wainwright	STL	CIN	160	3.71	4.04	1.24	84.2%	18.7%	5.5%	0.51	1.59
Straily	CIN	STL	138.2	4.02	4.78	1.18	14.3%	19.3%	10.1%	1.10	0.77
Fernandez	MIA	CHC	190.1	2.84	2.60	1.09	75.0%	34.4%	6.7%	0.66	1.31
Hammel	CHC	MIA	285	3.54	3.74	1.14	47.4%	23.0%	6.4%	1.23	1.06
Dickey	TOR	HOU	345.2	4.19	4.77	1.25	47.6%	15.4%	7.6%	1.33	1.17
McCullers	HOU	TOR	202	3.21	3.61	1.32		26.9%	10.2%	0.58	1.78
McCarthy	LAD	COL	49.1	4.01	2.84	1.01	35.0%	32.1%	6.7%	2.01	0.94
Gray	COL	LAD	150.1	4.37	3.72	1.28		24.3%	7.7%	1.02	1.42
Roark	WAS	ARI	247.2	3.60	4.08	1.23	52.6%	17.9%	6.6%	0.94	1.67
Ray	ARI	WAS	242.2	4.08	3.79	1.41	33.3%	24.7%	8.9%	0.89	1.35
Manaea	OAK	LAA	86.2	4.57	3.99	1.29		20.4%	5.5%	1.25	1.17
Shoemaker	LAA	OAK	254	4.32	3.84	1.26	44.4%	21.7%	5.5%	1.31	0.95
Price	BOS	SEA	364	3.16	3.31	1.15	52.4%	25.2%	5.2%	0.82	1.26
LeBlanc	SEA	BOS	25.1	4.26	4.31	1.14		17.3%	3.9%	2.13	0.86
Davies	MIL	SDP	139.1	3.62	4.17	1.18		19.2%	7.4%	0.90	1.62
Perdomo	SDP	MIL	82.1	6.89	4.02	1.81		16.3%	7.5%	1.31	2.70

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Madison Bumgarner SF (at PHI) – High floor? Check. Bumgarner has yet to allow more than four earned runs in a game this season and has pitched at least 6.0 innings in 19 straight starts. Vaulted ceiling? Check. Mad Bum has 170 strikeouts in 150 innings, has punched out eight or more hitters in half his starts and has cracked 30 or more points on DraftKings seven times, including his last start (31.00 points versus the Reds) and maxing out at 56.05 points three starts ago. Soft opponent? Check. The Phillies .677 OPS this season is the second-lowest figure in baseball, joining the Braves as the only two ballclubs with an OPS under .700 this season. Plug n’ play.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jose Fernandez MIA (at CHC) – It takes a hell of an opponent to unseat Fern from All-In status, but that’s exactly what the right-hander is facing tonight. The Cubs have the fourth-highest OPS in baseball, and though they have cooled off considerably from the juggernaut offense that dominated the first half, this is still an imposing lineup that has scored seven or more runs in three of their last six games. When it comes to rostering Fern, however, it’s all about the strikeouts, as he has punched out seven or more hitters in every game for the past two months and fanned five or more hitters in every start this season, in addition to rarely matched upside in the category with 11 or more strikeouts in a whopping seven different games this season; the Cubs will further support this cause, with the fourth-most batter strikeouts in the National League.

Jacob DeGrom NYM (vs. NYY) – DeGrom rebounded nicely from his five-run, 10-hit start against the Marlins, spinning seven scoreless frames against the Rockies with six strikeouts and one walk in the game. It looked like he was a run prior to the five-run start, as he was coming off a one-hit shutout when the disaster struck. He has not struck out more than seven batters in any of his last seven starts but he’s also walked two or fewer hitters for ten consecutive turns, and he has chalked a quality start in nine of his last eleven ballgames. DeGrom is more about the floor than the ceiling, as the shutout was his only game with 30 or points this season.

Yu Darvish TEX (at BAL) – We’re still waiting for the Rangers to let Darvish fully stretch his wings. He has exceeded 90 pitches in his last three starts, yet he hasn’t been extended past 93 throws in either of the three games, leaving one to wonder whether he will be capped under 100 pitches for a longer stretch that stretches deep into August. He doesn’t necessarily need a big pitch count in order to score some fantasy points, as his rate of 12.7 K/9 has helped to propel him to 19 or more points on DraftKings for five of his six starts this season despite his not exceeding 93 pitches or 6.0 innings. He has stayed in long enough to earn quality starts in arch of his last two turns, but the pitch-count limitations are restraining his scores by muting his counts for innings, strikeouts and possibly wins.

Carlos Carrasco CLE (vs. MIN) – After Carrasco struck out 14 Blue Jays on June 30, some in the fantasy community were ready to anoint him as the top right-harder in the American League, as the upside of 2015 and the anticipation that was generated by his DL stint this season fueled a bit of over excitement. Rather than rise up to the challenge of heightened expectations, Carrasco has gone the other direction and fallen short of his previously-established levels of performance, particular in the strikeout category. Carrasco has struck out a modest 23 batters in the 28.1 innings and five starts since his 14-K breakout, topping out at six strikeouts in a game over the past month. His opponent two starts ago was none other than the Twins, who struck out just three times but also scored only two runs in 6.2 innings against him.

David Price BOS (at SEA) – Perhaps no pitcher has been more frustrating to own this season than David Price. He can strike out 10 batters one start and not only one K in the next. He has thrown 8.0 scoreless innings in each of two of his last four starts, but those strong outing bookend a pair of forgettable games, each involving 11 hits allowed and combining for eight runs in 11.1 innings of work. Five times he has scored 30 or more fantasy points on DK, topping out at 41.20 points in one game, yet he has scored fewer than three points in five other starts, bottoming out with a battleship-sinking negative-11.95 points. I have no idea if today’s start will be vintage Price or yet another disaster, making him a dangerous play in cash games, but he earns Raise status for his upside.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Bumgarner	0.234	2.49	0.268	2.61	0.253	0.677	0.273	2.91	0.212	0.01	27.5%
Eflin	0.323	4.74	0.312	3.82	0.264	0.737	0.258	4.51	0.25	0.01	11.8%
Darvish	0.279	3.78	0.269	2.35	0.261	0.769	0.301	2.57	0.207	0.06	34.1%
Bundy	0.336	2.89	0.338	4.13	0.259	0.744	0.336	4.34	0.282	0.01	21.8%
Shields	0.365	4.23	0.313	4.18	0.269	0.748	0.297	4.71	0.255	0.00	21.7%
Sanchez	0.319	4.80	0.378	6.45	0.249	0.698	0.303	4.89	0.268	0.00	20.6%
Ventura	0.326	5.31	0.298	3.50	0.241	0.705	0.291	4.11	0.246	0.00	20.4%
Andriese	0.300	3.62	0.272	3.23	0.264	0.722	0.280	3.60	0.241	0.00	18.3%
Gibson	0.317	4.38	0.302	3.68	0.254	0.741	0.293	4.03	0.255	0.00	17.5%
Carrasco	0.278	2.95	0.281	3.47	0.244	0.704	0.280	3.23	0.219	0.01	27.7%
Tanaka	0.283	3.47	0.281	3.23	0.241	0.709	0.259	3.68	0.226	0.00	21.4%
Degrom	0.275	2.82	0.242	2.26	0.247	0.726	0.277	2.84	0.217	0.01	26.1%
Cole	0.281	2.26	0.278	3.03	0.252	0.678	0.308	2.72	0.241	0.00	23.0%
Foltynewicz	0.388	5.61	0.341	4.68	0.261	0.728	0.326	4.97	0.288	0.00	19.8%
Wainwright	0.314	4.05	0.294	3.47	0.247	0.705	0.316	3.08	0.263	0.01	18.7%
Straily	0.307	4.88	0.279	3.11	0.261	0.759	0.233	4.55	0.208	0.01	19.3%
Fernandez	0.318	3.22	0.218	2.52	0.247	0.739	0.329	2.22	0.22	0.01	34.4%
Hammel	0.317	3.50	0.290	3.56	0.262	0.704	0.271	3.94	0.23	0.00	23.0%
Dickey	0.317	3.92	0.326	4.41	0.250	0.749	0.260	4.87	0.245	0.00	15.4%
McCullers	0.287	3.10	0.313	3.32	0.259	0.783	0.320	3.07	0.236	0.01	26.9%
McCarthy	0.279	2.53	0.304	5.14	0.270	0.776	0.243	4.31	0.206	0.04	32.1%
Gray	0.307	3.77	0.325	4.92	0.248	0.736	0.313	3.75	0.249	0.01	24.3%
Roark	0.310	2.99	0.299	4.14	0.263	0.734	0.288	3.98	0.252	0.00	17.9%
Ray	0.310	3.41	0.334	4.33	0.265	0.779	0.335	3.60	0.26	0.01	24.7%
Manaea	0.245	2.37	0.342	5.19	0.248	0.706	0.310	3.96	0.267	0.01	20.4%
Shoemaker	0.305	4.50	0.334	4.12	0.249	0.703	0.303	3.98	0.259	0.00	21.7%
Price	0.301	2.80	0.285	3.28	0.258	0.735	0.309	2.97	0.243	0.00	25.2%
LeBlanc			0.349	5.09	0.277	0.774	0.250	5.26	0.25	0.03	17.3%
Davies	0.304	2.69	0.287	4.40	0.238	0.682	0.273	3.87	0.235	0.01	19.2%
Perdomo	0.363	6.92	0.392	6.85	0.252	0.710	0.373	4.69	0.327	0.00	16.3%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Gerrit Cole PIT (at ATL) – Cole is coming off his best game of the season, a complete game victory over the Mariners that included just one run, three hits and no walks in addition to six strikeouts in the game. It was his second strong effort in a row, following a six-inning, one-run performance against the Phillies, with seven strikeouts and just one walk. The impressive ratio of strikeouts to walks have been a sight for sore eyes, as Cole is otherwise having rough season in terms of both strikeout rate (career-low 20.0 percent) and walks (6.3 percent, up 1.0 from last season). Tonight he gets the treat of facing the Braves and their MLB-worst offense, a team that could help lower Cole’s 2.78 ERA and whose dearth of power could very well lower his minuscule homer rate of 0.8 percent.

Lance McCullers HOU (vs. TOR) – Over the last two seasons, McCullers now has more than 200 Inge pitched with a composite 3.21 ERA. He is currently on a dynamite run, with a 2.11 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 42.2 innings over his last seven starts, with exactly one run allowed in five of those turns. He has struck out 10 batters in each of his last two game. The issue is walks, as even during the recent stretch he has walked 21 batters in addition to giving up 39 hits, a combination of baserunners that would typically result in more runs in the scoreboard. The strikeout upside is enormous – he has double-digit Ks in three of his last five games – but the Blue Jays recently welcomed Jose Bautista back into the fold and could threaten McCullers’ exceptionally low homer rate of 0.4 HR/9.

Adam Wainwright STL (at CIN) – Waino was knocked for 11 hits and four runs over 6.2 innings against the Mets in his last start, a disappointing finish to an otherwise excellent month for a veteran trying to get back on track after a brutal start to the season. In the four starts leading up to his last turn, Wainwright had allowed just three combined runs with a 27:3 K:BB in 29.0 innings pitched. His last start against the Reds was something of a breakout for Wainwright, a game in which he struck nine batters over 6.0 innings after not topping six Ks in any of his first dozen starts of the season. The trade of Jay Bruce further weakens the Cincy offense, raising the likelihood of another strong start for Wainwright as he attempts to round back into form.

Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. OAK) – Three starts ago, Shoemaker struck out 13 White Sox en route to a six-hit shutout. In his other four starts of July, Shoemaker combined for 13 strikeouts in 22.1 innings, though he allowed just six walks and two homers over that stretch. He has an excellent 116:24 K:BB in 118.2 innings this season, but the potential for a low K count or a few too many runs – he gave up five runs over 6.0 frames in his last start – temper expectations even though he’s facing a tepid Oakland offense that was further weakened at the trade deadline.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at NYM) – Rostering Tanaka is supposed to be all about floor, and superficially his 3.16 ERA would seem to support that notion, but the right-hander has already had six starts (out of 21) with four or more runs allowed, hasn’t topped seven strikeouts in any game this season and being held under 95 pitches in each of his last four turns. He has avoided any complete disaster starts this season, but Tanaka offers limited upside with higher odds of implosion than is often implied. He might work as an SP2 in a two-pitcher format, but otherwise Tanaka’s performance is unlikely to justify his price tag.

Tanner Roark WAS (at ARI)

Jason Hammel CHC (vs. MIA)

James Shields CHW (at DET)

Sean Manaea OAK (at LAA)

R.A. Dickey TOR (at HOU)

Dan Straily CIN (vs. STL)

Jon Gray COL (vs. LAD)

Robbie Ray ARI (vs. WAS)

Mike Foltynewicz ATL (vs. PIT)

Yordano Ventura KC (at TB)

Zach Davies MIL (at SD)

Matt Andriese TB (vs. KC)