Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, April 27th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-04-28 02:49:59

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Cashner	SDP	SFG	199.2	4.42	3.98	1.44	75.0%	20.7%	8.2%	0.90	1.55
Samardzija	SFG	SDP	233.1	4.86	4.21	1.31	60.0%	17.8%	5.8%	1.20	1.03
Hellickson	PHI	WAS	160.2	4.59	4.07	1.30		19.4%	6.5%	1.34	1.14
Gonzalez	WAS	PHI	188.2	3.58	3.77	1.38	46.7%	22.4%	8.9%	0.43	1.89
Quintana	CWS	TOR	224	3.29	3.57	1.26	50.0%	20.9%	5.0%	0.64	1.59
Estrada	TOR	CWS	194	3.11	4.58	1.06	27.8%	18.3%	7.5%	1.16	0.63
Gray	OAK	DET	227.1	2.69	3.81	1.10	60.0%	20.4%	7.4%	0.71	1.75
Verlander	DET	OAK	149.2	3.79	3.98	1.14	35.0%	21.1%	6.3%	0.96	0.76
Norris	ATL	BOS	100.1	6.64	4.26	1.59	26.7%	18.4%	8.3%	1.61	1.28
Wright	BOS	ATL	85.1	3.80	4.47	1.28		17.4%	8.3%	1.37	1.03
Tillman	BAL	TBR	185.1	5.00	4.63	1.38	42.9%	16.6%	8.5%	1.02	1.20
Moore	TBR	BAL	81.1	4.87	4.24	1.41		19.0%	7.4%	1.22	1.04
Moscot	CIN	NYM	17.1	4.67	5.35	1.33		10.5%	7.9%	2.08	1.13
Harvey	NYM	CIN	206.2	2.96	3.38	1.06		23.7%	5.3%	0.83	1.32
Jungmann	MIL	CHC	132.1	4.28	4.13	1.31		20.8%	9.1%	0.88	1.44
Arrieta	CHC	MIL	251	1.72	2.73	0.86	50.0%	27.0%	5.3%	0.43	2.46
Sabathia	NYY	TEX	178	4.75	4.11	1.43	25.0%	18.8%	7.1%	1.47	1.43
Perez	TEX	NYY	97	4.27	4.30	1.42	37.5%	13.8%	8.5%	0.46	2.72
Tomlin	CLE	MIN	70.2	2.93	3.36	0.83	23.1%	23.3%	3.0%	1.78	0.82
Berrios	MIN	CLE
Niese	PIT	COL	194.2	4.07	4.23	1.36	41.2%	15.2%	7.1%	1.06	2.14
Gray	COL	PIT	40.2	5.53	3.89	1.62		21.6%	7.6%	0.89	1.29
Wainwright	STL	ARI	44.1	4.06	4.52	1.35	84.2%	14.3%	6.9%	0.20	1.61
Corbin	ARI	STL	104.2	3.44	3.53	1.26		21.1%	4.8%	1.03	1.57
Young	KCR	LAA	137	3.55	5.14	1.18	47.4%	16.4%	8.8%	1.25	0.48
Tropeano	LAA	KCR	48.1	3.17	3.81	1.34		22.7%	6.8%	0.37	0.76
McHugh	HOU	SEA	216.1	4.04	3.94	1.31	42.9%	19.7%	6.1%	0.83	1.25
Iwakuma	SEA	HOU	147.2	3.66	3.48	1.12	60.0%	21.1%	4.5%	1.16	1.56
Nicolino	MIA	LAD	74	4.01	5.59	1.24		7.6%	6.6%	0.97	1.18
Kazmir	LAD	MIA	197	3.34	4.11	1.22	63.2%	20.2%	7.8%	1.05	1.14

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jake Arrieta CHC (vs. MIL) – On today’s slate, there’s Arrieta and then there’s everyone else. Fresh off a no-hitter in his last start, a performance that might have actually been his least dominant of the season, the right-handed Cy Young winner will be tasked with corralling a Brewers offense that has consisted of Ryan Braun and Chris Carter while on one of his random stretches where he can carry an offense. Overall, Milwaukee’s offense in the worst quarter of the league in strikeout rate, OPS and wOBA so far this season, so don’t be surprised when Arrieta fires another seven-plus innings of shutout baseball, as he has done in three of his four starts in 2016. We have yet to see a big-strikeout game from Arrieta, so maybe Arrieta’s due for a spike in the K department.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. PHI) – Gonzalez has been on a tear to start the season, with a 1.42 ERA, 20 strikeouts and just four walks through his first three starts and 19.0 innings of work. Gonzalez was once known as one of the most consistent pitchers in the game when looking at his stats from season-to-season, but 2015 was a nightmare that he would like to soon forget. Perhaps most impressive this season has been his pitch efficiency, as Gonzalez has tossed 6.0 or more innings in every start while keeping the count at 90-100 pitches. The one caveat (and it’s a big one) is that Gio has faced some of the softest offenses in baseball over his three starts, including the Braves, Twins, and Phillies. Luckily, he’s facing the anemic Philly offense once again, a lineup that would easily be confused for a Triple-A ballclub if not for Maikel Franco, so Gio is in a great position to continue his effective string of run starts.

Sonny Gray OAK (at DET) – Gray’s been remarkably consistent over the last few years, whether looking at ERA (2.73-2.73-3.08) or his FIP (3.50-3.45-3.46), but the half-run discrepancy between the two measures underscores his strategy of generating weak contact in deference to piling up strikeouts. The cap on his Ks lowers his fantasy ceiling, and I’ve been cautioning against using starters versus the Tigers, but the combination of Detroit’s offensive struggles, Gray’s track record of run prevention and a weak overall slate vault him up the rankings. The walk rate is a bit concerning, but this season Gray has already defeated the World Series champion Royals, the 15-6 White Sox and the almighty Blue Jays (in Rogers Centre). Suddenly the Tigers don’t seem all that imposing.

Jose Berrios MIN (vs. CLE) – This might appear to be an over-zealous ranking, and indeed it might be, but to be honest, I had to resist the temptation to rank Berrios even higher. I’ve been riding shotgun on the Berrios bandwagon since he was drafted in 2012, as he had my favorite delivery of that draft class, and after 457.1 innings in the minors his numbers stand at a 2.91 ERA, 9.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, with one home run allowed every 18 innings. Forget the size, as pitchers such as Marcus Stroman and Yordano Ventura are leading a pack of regular-sized humans who excel at throwing baseballs for a living. Berrios gets a soft landing with his debut coming against the Indians, and there’s a non-zero chance that he pops the best pitcher score of the day. There’s also a non-zero chance that he gets bounced before the third inning is finished, because greenhorns can be unpredictable, but this will be a game worth watching whether or not you decide to roll the dice.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Cashner	0.374	5.18	0.303	3.81	0.266	0.745	0.332	3.79	0.274	0.01	20.7%
Samardzija	0.356	5.75	0.300	4.01	0.242	0.681	0.303	4.23	0.269	0.01	17.8%
Hellickson	0.321	4.39	0.337	4.74	0.247	0.713	0.288	4.35	0.254	0.01	19.4%
Gonzalez	0.270	3.00	0.316	3.76	0.249	0.679	0.331	3.04	0.257	0.01	22.4%
Quintana	0.276	3.66	0.320	3.19	0.273	0.805	0.329	3.06	0.268	0.01	20.9%
Estrada	0.279	3.09	0.277	3.13	0.250	0.693	0.223	4.32	0.206	0.01	18.3%
Gray	0.258	1.96	0.269	3.45	0.268	0.735	0.257	3.44	0.216	0.01	20.4%
Verlander	0.269	2.87	0.313	4.79	0.247	0.699	0.278	3.63	0.235	0.01	21.1%
Norris	0.388	6.79	0.369	6.47	0.262	0.735	0.332	5.04	0.294	0.00	18.4%
Wright	0.301	4.03	0.322	3.61	0.256	0.682	0.260	4.79	0.239	0.01	17.4%
Tillman	0.309	3.41	0.354	6.58	0.246	0.699	0.296	4.36	0.263	0.00	16.6%
Moore	0.326	6.08	0.349	4.37	0.241	0.674	0.322	4.42	0.278	0.01	19.0%
Moscot					0.243	0.707	0.228	6.41	0.246	0.03	10.5%
Harvey	0.296	3.45	0.247	2.49	0.248	0.702	0.278	3.13	0.225	0.01	23.7%
Jungmann	0.318	3.39	0.329	5.05	0.247	0.732	0.297	4.02	0.246	0.01	20.8%
Arrieta	0.213	1.47	0.237	1.94	0.256	0.708	0.245	2.38	0.185	0.01	27.0%
Sabathia	0.244	4.42	0.366	4.84	0.255	0.735	0.316	4.65	0.279	0.01	18.8%
Perez	0.240	2.53	0.343	4.76	0.255	0.743	0.313	3.83	0.275	0.01	13.8%
Tomlin	0.206	1.64	0.347	4.45	0.242	0.696	0.202	4.35	0.196	0.02	23.3%
Berrios					0.253	0.724
Niese	0.337	2.88	0.327	4.38	0.255	0.686	0.293	4.43	0.265	0.00	15.2%
Gray	0.326	3.20	0.398	7.71	0.266	0.736	0.384	3.63	0.308	0.00	21.6%
Wainwright	0.321	3.50	0.319	4.44	0.265	0.739	0.313	3.15	0.269	0.01	14.3%
Corbin	0.241	1.54	0.343	3.98	0.231	0.668	0.320	3.52	0.269	0.01	21.1%
Young	0.340	4.21	0.246	2.93	0.247	0.702	0.227	4.67	0.214	0.00	16.4%
Tropeano	0.320	1.88	0.289	4.44	0.264	0.729	0.340	2.59	0.264	0.02	22.7%
McHugh	0.300	4.19	0.327	3.89	0.240	0.714	0.318	3.55	0.266	0.01	19.7%
Iwakuma	0.306	3.22	0.290	4.08	0.249	0.751	0.284	3.71	0.245	0.01	21.1%
Nicolino	0.319	4.20	0.327	3.97	0.263	0.751	0.259	4.85	0.259	0.01	7.6%
Kazmir	0.336	4.86	0.289	2.82	0.277	0.743	0.274	4.08	0.235	0.01	20.2%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Matt Harvey NYM (vs. CIN) – Harvey made some superficial progress in his last start, walking just one batter and allowing two runs, both his lowest single-game outputs for the season, but the fact that he was facing the Braves effectively tosses any optimism out the window. It was also his shortest outing of the year in terms of innings, lasting a season-low 5.0 frames despite throwing a season-high 101 pitches. His season-high on DraftKings is 12.25 points, and in three of his four turns Harvey has posted a score under seven. He gets another light opponent today against the Reds, especially with Joey Votto being uncharacteristically off his game (.603 OPS so far), but Harvey’s biggest nemesis appears to be himself at this point, and he can’t really be trusted until we see a semblance of the Harvey of old.

Jeff Samardzija SF (vs. SD) – Where have all the strikeouts gone? Samardzija posted a K rate at or above 22.9 percent in every season from 2011-14, but the K frequency cratered to 17.9 percent last season. It’s even lower in 2016, checking in with a K rate of 17.1 percent; his numbers fall short for those hoping for a performance rebound by the Shark. The context favors a strong performance for him this afternoon, in the only day game on the slate, facing the run-starved Padres in the run-suppressing confines of ATT Park. He apparently needs all the context that he can get.

Andrew Cashner SD (at SF) – The two pitchers who fell the furthest short of my expectations last season are facing off for the afternoon tilt at ATT Park. I was big on both Samardzija and Cashner, and in particular I thought that 2015 would be a breakout for Cashner. Instead, his performance cratered. The K rate that everyone was expecting to climb followed suit, but Cashner’s walks and runs allowed followed the same escalator upward.

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. HOU) – Well, if his current innings climb (5.0-6.0-7.0-8.0) follows suit, then Iwakuma will be earning extra fantasy points for going the distance in today’s game against Houston. That would seem like a longshot, until realizing that he breezed through the eight innings of his last start in a measly 89 pitches, averaging just 11 tosses per frame. The Astros add a chunk to everyone’s K rate, but the all-or-nothing offense has the capacity to put up crooked numbers in a hurry.

Jose Quintana CHW (at TOR) – The Jays have yet to hit their stride as a team, but as a general rule it’s good to avoid that lineup, particularly when the opposing starter is a southpaw. Quintana has been lights out so farm carrying an ERA of 1.82 through his first four starts and a 22:5 K:BB ratio in 24.2 innings. He’s faced some pretty easy opponents along the way, save for the Rangers in his last start (whom he blanked for seven innings), and the Blue Jays will surely be his harshest test of the season to date. The Blue Jays are gonna bust out soon, and the explosion probably starts against a lefty.

Adam Wainwright STL (at ARI) – Waino’s earned bench status until he proves that he even belongs in the conversation. Even when at his best, the K rate was modest, so there is limited upside here but considerable downside. Pass.

Justin Verlander DET (vs. OAK)

Patrick Corbin ARI (vs. STL)

Matt Moore TB (vs. BAL)

Scott Kazmir LAD (vs. MIA)

Marco Estrada TOR (vs. CHW)

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (at WAS)

Chris Tillman BAL (at TB)

Josh Tomlin CLE (at MIN)

Collin McHugh HOU (at SEA)

Chris Young KC (at LAA)

Martin Perez TEX (vs. NYY)

Nick Tropeano LAA (vs. KC)