Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, July 20th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-07-21 01:55:05

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Harrell	ATL	CIN	17.1	3.63	4.43	1.15		19.4%	8.3%	0.00	1.35
DeSclafani	CIN	ATL	227	3.77	4.05	1.33	20.0%	19.6%	6.7%	0.83	1.30
Santana	MIN	DET	206.1	4.06	4.47	1.30	38.9%	17.9%	7.4%	1.00	1.12
Verlander	DET	MIN	257.2	3.63	3.83	1.10	35.0%	23.3%	6.4%	1.01	0.77
Carrasco	CLE	KCR	263.1	3.28	3.01	1.07		27.8%	6.1%	1.03	1.69
Kennedy	KCR	CLE	273.1	4.12	3.77	1.25	47.6%	24.4%	7.6%	1.75	0.87
Colon	NYM	CHC	299	3.79	4.13	1.23	42.1%	16.5%	3.5%	1.14	1.23
Hendricks	CHC	NYM	284.2	3.38	3.57	1.11		22.1%	6.2%	0.79	1.83
De La Rosa	COL	TBR	217.2	4.59	4.27	1.42	40.0%	20.6%	10.3%	1.20	1.77
Fister	HOU	OAK	214.1	3.91	4.68	1.32	58.3%	14.5%	6.8%	1.22	1.39
Mengden	OAK	HOU	39	5.54	4.38	1.49		22.2%	10.2%	0.92	1.37
Gonzalez	CWS	SEA	220.1	4.74	4.58	1.38	40.0%	17.6%	8.4%	1.27	1.17
Hernandez	SEA	CWS	264.2	3.37	3.62	1.19	81.0%	22.3%	7.7%	0.99	2.06
Stroman	TOR	ARI	147.2	4.51	3.77	1.29	66.7%	17.2%	6.5%	0.98	3.04
Corbin	ARI	TOR	194.2	4.53	4.08	1.41		19.0%	7.2%	1.29	1.82
Gallardo	BAL	NYY	232.2	3.91	4.85	1.49	50.0%	15.1%	9.4%	0.81	1.53
Pineda	NYY	BAL	261	4.83	3.19	1.28	75.0%	24.9%	4.3%	1.34	1.51
Norris	LAD	WAS	169.1	5.42	4.12	1.45	26.7%	20.0%	8.3%	1.17	1.45
Gonzalez	WAS	LAD	279	4.13	3.88	1.42	46.7%	22.5%	8.9%	0.68	1.81
Chen	MIA	PHI	296	3.89	4.07	1.23	31.6%	19.2%	5.2%	1.43	1.00
Hellickson	PHI	MIA	257.2	4.37	4.07	1.27		20.0%	6.4%	1.40	1.18
Anderson	MIL	PIT	238.2	4.71	4.49	1.34	40.0%	17.5%	7.2%	1.36	1.07
Locke	PIT	MIL	269.1	4.78	4.54	1.42	66.7%	15.6%	7.9%	0.97	1.74
Cain	SFG	BOS	118	5.57	4.81	1.51	40.0%	15.6%	7.2%	1.53	0.89
Pomeranz	BOS	SFG	188	3.02	3.72	1.12	25.0%	25.7%	9.4%	0.77	1.23
Cashner	SDP	STL	252.1	4.53	4.20	1.45	75.0%	19.7%	8.4%	1.07	1.53
Garcia	STL	SDP	237	3.19	3.68	1.19	28.6%	19.2%	7.0%	0.61	2.68
Perez	TEX	LAA	192	4.22	4.82	1.42	37.5%	12.2%	8.7%	0.66	2.32
Santiago	LAA	TEX	286	3.84	4.52	1.26	16.7%	20.9%	9.4%	1.45	0.65

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Carlos Carrasco CLE (at KC) – Carrasco is a class above the other pitchers on today’s slate and his non-intimidating opponent provides a clear path to a big day for the right-hander. Expectations should be tempered with respect to his K-count, considering that he had just 12 strikeouts in his last three starts (16.1 innings) heading into the break. Prior to his strikeout shortage, Carrasco spiked a 14-K game that seemingly announced his presence among the top tier of AL pitchers (an admittedly battered tier), but aside from that outing he has failed to top eight strikeouts in any of his other 12 starts this season. The Royals are not a high-strikeout team but they don’t walk much, either, with the lowest count of free passes of any team in baseball. The innings could start churning if their balls in play don’t find open pasture.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Justin Verlander DET (vs. MIN) – Verlander was on a nice little roll prior to the break, tossing a combined 19.2 innings of 1.83-ERA baseball that included 23 strikeouts against seven walks. Of course, the start prior he had coughed up eight earned runs (including four homers) in just 4.2 innings against the Indians. And that’s the thing: Verlander is prone to blow-up starts. He has given up seven or more earned runs three times in 19 starts this season, and those starts have been interspersed like landmines on his game log. He is the top raise option on today’s slate, but there’s about a 15-percent chance that he coughs up a hairball today against the Twins.

Felix Hernandez SEA (vs. CHW) – We typically expect an abbreviated start from a pitcher coming back from injury, but Felix is not a typical pitcher, and he claims “there are no restrictions” for his first start since late May. The King’s performance will likely dictate the duration of his outing, but there is less to be concerned about here in terms of expected pitch count. The bigger worry surrounds the warning flags from before the injury, as Hernandez had seen his peripheral stats go in the wrong directions with pitch velocity that had lost multiple ticks when compared to the previous several seasons. He gets a soft landing in his first game back to shake off the rust.

Carlos Martinez STL (vs. SD) – CarMart’s game got rained out last night so he’ll start the first game of today’s doubleheader. As a result, he may not be available for many (if any) DFS leagues, but just for posterity here’s what I said about Martinez yesterday: “… Martinez whiffed 11 Brewers over just 5.0 frames in his last turn before the break, giving up just one run in the process, but he also tacked on four hits and four walks (his most of the season), as he threw 103 pitches in the quintet of innings. The Brewers have a tendency of granting high-strikeout starts to opposing pitchers, so a similar K count is not to be expected, though facing the Padres will theoretically help to soften the fall. From a pure run-prevention standpoint, Martinez has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball for the past month and a half, with a 1.49 ERA and 49:16 K:BB ratio over his last eight starts and 54.1 innings pitched.”

Drew Pomeranz BOS (vs. SF) – Pomeranz earns the Raise clearance if only because he is the best pitcher on the board from the afternoon slate. There are only seven games starting after 7:00 EST today, and the mounds will be manned by the flotsam and jetsam within the major league pitcher pool. Pomeranz was having a breakout year with the Padres and now we’ll get to see if Petco gets a chunk of the credit, but I suspect that he’ll hold most of his gains. The addition of a cutter this season – which he employs against all batters in every situation and count – has made all the difference in the world despite representing just a 10-percent slice of his overall pitch count. Interleague play can be unpredictable, but Pomeranz carries the advantage of having faced the Giants three times already this season as a member of the Padres. In fact, Pomeranz has pitched more innings versus the Giants this season (17.1) than any other team in baseball, including a 2.60 ERA and 15:9 K:BB ratio over that stretch. Different venue, same results? Stay tuned.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Harrell					0.245	0.699	0.280	2.92	0.219	0.06	19.4%
DeSclafani	0.345	4.60	0.293	2.84	0.250	0.673	0.321	3.64	0.269	0.01	19.6%
Santana	0.319	4.31	0.310	3.79	0.268	0.743	0.292	4.08	0.256	0.01	17.9%
Verlander	0.273	2.91	0.298	4.37	0.244	0.703	0.271	3.61	0.225	0.01	23.3%
Carrasco	0.283	3.00	0.284	3.52	0.267	0.728	0.287	3.22	0.224	0.01	27.8%
Kennedy	0.342	4.41	0.328	3.84	0.255	0.742	0.284	4.72	0.244	0.01	24.4%
Colon	0.319	3.67	0.305	3.92	0.247	0.739	0.300	3.90	0.271	0.00	16.5%
Hendricks	0.320	2.98	0.251	3.68	0.241	0.713	0.276	3.39	0.227	0.00	22.1%
Archer	0.288	3.85	0.300	3.63	0.271	0.780	0.303	3.41	0.231	0.01	28.1%
De La Rosa	0.316	5.34	0.345	4.55	0.263	0.771	0.299	4.52	0.254	0.01	20.6%
Fister	0.347	4.51	0.305	3.27	0.250	0.703	0.284	4.67	0.264	0.00	14.5%
Mengden	0.354	6.75	0.293	4.57	0.250	0.750	0.321	4.10	0.258	0.00	22.2%
Gonzalez	0.343	4.21	0.326	5.21	0.250	0.742	0.296	4.69	0.264	0.00	17.6%
Hernandez	0.303	3.91	0.290	2.79	0.250	0.701	0.280	3.82	0.232	0.01	22.3%
Stroman	0.327	4.96	0.303	4.00	0.265	0.741	0.298	4.02	0.262	0.01	17.2%
Corbin	0.328	3.63	0.345	4.80	0.270	0.795	0.315	4.39	0.274	0.01	19.0%
Gallardo	0.349	5.00	0.313	2.90	0.248	0.729	0.309	4.23	0.273	0.00	15.1%
Pineda	0.328	4.54	0.335	5.07	0.263	0.775	0.336	3.61	0.272	0.00	24.9%
Norris	0.380	5.90	0.310	5.00	0.246	0.720	0.321	4.30	0.273	0.00	20.0%
Gonzalez	0.278	3.43	0.328	4.33	0.250	0.724	0.333	3.44	0.262	0.00	22.5%
Chen	0.271	2.73	0.343	4.23	0.250	0.672	0.290	4.32	0.259	0.00	19.2%
Hellickson	0.345	4.35	0.319	4.38	0.262	0.703	0.287	4.39	0.253	0.00	20.0%
Anderson	0.310	4.21	0.361	5.17	0.262	0.730	0.293	4.67	0.265	0.00	17.5%
Locke	0.325	5.29	0.330	4.60	0.238	0.693	0.304	4.30	0.271	0.00	15.6%
Cain	0.398	6.49	0.345	4.86	0.273	0.772	0.317	5.08	0.291	0.00	15.6%
Pomeranz	0.231	1.85	0.280	3.54	0.264	0.719	0.255	3.37	0.199	0.00	25.7%
Cashner	0.368	5.11	0.318	4.02	0.264	0.763	0.322	4.19	0.272	0.00	19.7%
Garcia	0.281	2.92	0.281	3.26	0.255	0.726	0.285	3.40	0.239	0.01	19.2%
Perez	0.247	1.91	0.338	4.87	0.246	0.703	0.295	4.23	0.268	0.00	12.2%
Santiago	0.287	2.83	0.322	4.17	0.263	0.747	0.253	4.80	0.226	0.00	20.9%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Anthony DeSclafani CIN (vs. ATL) – He has earned the quality start in six of his seven turns this season, but the one rough game came against these Braves in Atlanta, as DeSclafani lasted just 2.2 innings in giving up four runs (only one was earned) and nine baserunners. The right-hander handled the Cubs on July 6, so in theory this outing should be a cakewalk, but the Reds will likely give him a longer leash to enact his revenge on the Braves.

Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. NYM) – At first glance, Hendricks’ rate of 7.7 K/9 is respectable, but he has struggled to miss bats recently and has one outlier game that is boosting his numbers. He has combined for just six strikeouts in 13.1 innings over his last three starts, and outside of one 12-K performance in mid-June, Hendricks hasn’t punched out more than a half-dozen hitters since May. The hit rate is absurdly low, and in those same three low-K starts he gave up a combined zero earned runs, so there’s something here – I just can’t see it yet.

Ian Kennedy KC (vs. CLE) – If it weren’t for homers, Kennedy would be considered a stud. He strikes out a batter per inning and keeps the walks within a hair of league average, but Kennedy has given up an astounding 22 home runs in his 18 starts this season – 19 of those homers have come in the last dozen turns. He has also had a pair of games with double-digit strikeouts over that stretch, including a 10-K, two-run outing against the Blue Jays.

Jaime Garcia STL (vs. SD) – There’s a big gap between Hendricks and Garcia, with the homer-prone Kennedy serving as an ideal bridge between the two low-K options this season. The Padres have a wOBA that is 15 points higher against left-handers, and the Friars have been raking over the last seven days to the tune of a .346 wOBA and .827 OPS. Game two of the doubleheader could get ugly.

Marcus Stroman TOR (at ARI) – Stroman has the Verlander disease, but the blowup starts are even more frequent and Stroman’s baseline is far less impressive. He has given up six or more runs five different times this season, each with nine or more hits allowed, including his last start before the All-Star break. Strikeouts are not part of his game, topping a half-dozen Ks just twice in 19 starts, with both of those games occurring in the first week of May. I’m rooting for Stroman to turn it around, but from a DFS standpoint I’m not willing to invest resources in a low-K pitcher with a penchant for blowup starts.

Michael Pineda NYY (vs. BAL) – Pineda is the ultimate sabermetric tease. He consistently posts an excellent K:BB ratio (119:27 in 100.1 innings this season), fueling projection systems to tab him as a breakout candidate, yet time and time against the right-hander gets lit up like a Christmas tree. It looked for second there like he had found a groove, with a 2.75 ERA and rattling off 49 strikeouts in 36 innings of June, but then he started July with a pair of five-run outings. Given the strength of his opponent, Pineda could be in for another rough ride as he faces the Orioles for the first time this season.

Wei-Yin Chen MIA (at PHI)

Bartolo Colon NYM (at CHC)

Chris Archer TB (at COL) – Archer has given up three or more earned runs in eight of his last nine starts (the outlier was 5.2 scoreless against Detroit), and it’s safe to say that the thin air of the Rockies will extend that streak to nine of ten. He has been collecting innings along the way, as Archer seems to get roughed up in the first frame (combined 9.45 ERA in the first inning of his 20 starts) before settling down and getting to work. If the trend continues in Denver then the Rox might have three runs before the start of the second inning. Watch from afar.

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. MIA)

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. LAD)

Hector Santiago LAA (vs. TEX)

Doug Fister HOU (at OAK)

Martin Perez TEX (at LAA)

Ervin Santana MIN (at DET)

Daniel Mengden OAK (vs. HOU)

Lucas Harrell ATL (at CIN)

Bud Norris LAD (at WAS)

Yovani Gallardo BAL (at NYY)

Miguel Gonzalez CHW (at SEA)