Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, June 29th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | BOS | TBR | 322.1 | 3.16 | 3.31 | 1.12 | 52.4% | 25.5% | 5.4% | 0.87 | 1.18 |
| Moore | TBR | BOS | 152.1 | 5.20 | 4.30 | 1.44 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 1.48 | 0.99 | |
| Hendricks | CHC | CIN | 264.2 | 3.57 | 3.47 | 1.11 | 22.7% | 6.1% | 0.82 | 1.88 | |
| Reed | CIN | CHC | 12 | 6.75 | 3.46 | 1.67 | 28.3% | 9.4% | 2.25 | 1.89 | |
| Koehler | MIA | DET | 271.1 | 4.08 | 4.77 | 1.41 | 52.6% | 17.8% | 10.5% | 0.93 | 1.31 |
| Norris | DET | MIA | 66 | 3.82 | 4.42 | 1.20 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 1.64 | 0.87 | |
| Sanchez | TOR | COL | 189.2 | 3.27 | 3.94 | 1.27 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 0.85 | 2.85 | |
| Anderson | COL | TOR | 17.2 | 2.55 | 2.74 | 1.19 | 24.7% | 4.1% | 0.00 | 3.44 | |
| Weaver | LAA | HOU | 248.1 | 4.86 | 5.01 | 1.31 | 52.4% | 13.4% | 5.2% | 1.56 | 0.71 |
| Gallardo | BAL | SDP | 212.2 | 3.77 | 4.74 | 1.45 | 50.0% | 15.0% | 8.8% | 0.76 | 1.57 |
| Friedrich | SDP | BAL | 103.1 | 4.53 | 4.58 | 1.65 | 17.1% | 10.6% | 0.78 | 1.58 | |
| Eflin | PHI | ARI | 14.1 | 6.28 | 5.66 | 1.53 | 8.7% | 5.8% | 1.88 | 0.95 | |
| Bradley | ARI | PHI | 81.2 | 5.07 | 4.76 | 1.48 | 20.0% | 12.8% | 1.10 | 1.69 | |
| Verrett | NYM | WAS | 89 | 3.84 | 4.31 | 1.22 | 19.0% | 9.0% | 1.31 | 1.13 | |
| Scherzer | WAS | NYM | 336 | 3.03 | 2.71 | 0.94 | 60.0% | 31.3% | 4.7% | 1.26 | 0.77 |
| Martinez | TEX | NYY | 138 | 4.11 | 5.02 | 1.48 | 27.3% | 13.2% | 8.5% | 1.17 | 1.32 |
| Tanaka | NYY | TEX | 252.2 | 3.31 | 3.53 | 1.01 | 66.7% | 21.3% | 4.5% | 1.18 | 1.57 |
| Salazar | CLE | ATL | 271.1 | 3.12 | 3.56 | 1.14 | 12.5% | 26.6% | 8.7% | 0.96 | 1.21 |
| De La Cruz | ATL | CLE | |||||||||
| Stewart | LAD | MIL | |||||||||
| Guerra | MIL | LAD | 65.1 | 3.86 | 4.15 | 1.19 | 21.1% | 7.5% | 1.10 | 1.15 | |
| Nolasco | MIN | CWS | 128.1 | 5.47 | 4.08 | 1.46 | 16.7% | 19.5% | 5.7% | 0.98 | 1.19 |
| Shields | CWS | MIN | 283.1 | 4.57 | 4.08 | 1.44 | 42.9% | 22.9% | 9.9% | 1.49 | 1.33 |
| Volquez | KCR | STL | 293 | 4.05 | 4.40 | 1.35 | 50.0% | 18.1% | 8.6% | 0.80 | 1.52 |
| Martinez | STL | KCR | 269 | 3.01 | 3.64 | 1.22 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 0.64 | 2.15 | |
| Peavy | SFG | OAK | 190 | 4.26 | 4.42 | 1.25 | 42.1% | 17.8% | 6.2% | 0.95 | 0.86 |
| Manaea | OAK | SFG | 49.1 | 6.02 | 4.51 | 1.44 | 18.4% | 7.4% | 1.46 | 1.05 | |
| Taillon | PIT | SEA | 22 | 4.50 | 4.06 | 1.32 | 16.5% | 5.5% | 1.64 | 2.33 | |
| Miley | SEA | PIT | 270.1 | 4.69 | 4.32 | 1.37 | 33.3% | 17.8% | 7.6% | 1.00 | 1.49 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Max Scherzer WAS (vs. NYM) – We have two pitchers worthy of All-In status today, and though neither brings the Kershaw-level confidence that is sometimes associated with such a lofty ranking, both Scherzer and Salazar possess an intriguing combination of high floor, high upside and an exceptionally weak opponent. Scherzer is coming off a disappointing, five-run outing against the Brewers, but optimism is fueled by the 10 strikeouts that he compiled in the game. Scherzer has broken double-digit Ks in four of his five June starts, going at least 6.0 frames in each, and in the previous four turns he had allowed a total of four earned runs over 28.0 innings pitched. He struck out 10 Mets with two runs allowed when he faced them in mid-May, but Scherzer faced a lineup that was a bit more imposing compared to the injury-riddled one that he will battle tonight.
Danny Salazar CLE (at ATL) – So when do too many walks become a real problem? For a pitcher like Salazar, the answer’s not so simple. In three of his last four games, he has walked four or more batters, yet he has earned the win in all three of those contests due to an exceptionally low hit count; in those three games, Salazar has given up 14 walks and just 10 hits over 18.1 innings. He has cracked eight or more strikeouts in half of his starts this year, and his low hit rate has been persistent all season long – Salazar has held opponents to four hits or fewer in 10 of his 14 turns. The total innings might be a bit limited due to working deep counts, as his 4.16 pitches/plate appearance is the fourth-highest mark in the major leagues, but there are few pitchers in baseball who can top Salazar on a per-inning basis.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
David Price BOS (at TB) – Oof. Just when Price had started to regain the trust of the DFS community, he gets trounced for six runs and is bounced in the third inning against the Rangers. Prior to that disaster, Price had an eight-game run of 6.1 or more innings and three or fewer runs allowed in each start. He even had a three-game run of completing the eighth inning, totaling 25 strikeouts in 24.0 frames. Price’s fantasy value has been a rollercoaster this season when evaluating his performance start-by-start, largely due to a K-count that occasionally spikes into the double-digits (four times this season), but which had stayed under eight strikeouts in eight of his previous ten starts. In May, he only topped six strikeouts in one of his six starts, but that exception was a 12-K handling of the Astros. That game followed a disaster start (6 R over 4.2 IP), as did his 14-strikeout squashing of the Braves in April (followed start of 8 R over 3.2 IP), so there might be an opportunity here if much of the fantasy community is fading Price following the Texas massacre. Or it’s just noise. (PS That eight-run start in April was against the Rays).
Carlos Martinez STL (vs. KC) – Martinez is on a great run since his mid-May crisis. His won-loss record says it all^: he won his first four starts in a row, then went on a five-loss string, then righted the ship with three consecutive wins. He has been excellent in his last two turns, with 14.0 innings and just one run allowed, so it follows that they were first two no-decisions of the year. Bottom line is that he has a 1.24 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 36.1 innings over his last five starts, and even his worst start during that stretch garnered more than 17 points on DraftKings.
^never thought I’d type that sentence
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (vs. TEX) – Tanaka has an iron ceiling for strikeouts this season – his 7 Ks from the last game tied a season-high – making him boring from a DFS context, but his mastery of the other 7’s is mighty impressive. He has given up seven or fewer hits in 14 of 15 starts this year, and has thrown 7.0 or more innings in 8 of those 15 turns. He doesn’t walk anyone (just 18 BB in 98.2 IP) and generally keeps the ball in the yard, including homerless games in six of his last seven outings. He is one of the more reliable pitchers available in terms of floor, making him a much more attractive commodity in cash games than in large tournaments.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 0.291 | 2.85 | 0.281 | 3.25 | 0.264 | 0.773 | 0.298 | 3.04 | 0.235 | 0.01 | 25.5% |
| Moore | 0.329 | 6.18 | 0.354 | 4.80 | 0.273 | 0.763 | 0.322 | 4.68 | 0.281 | 0.00 | 19.6% |
| Hendricks | 0.324 | 3.20 | 0.253 | 3.85 | 0.244 | 0.701 | 0.280 | 3.36 | 0.229 | 0.00 | 22.7% |
| Reed | 0.245 | 0.728 | 0.400 | 5.13 | 0.313 | 0.00 | 28.3% | ||||
| Koehler | 0.342 | 4.39 | 0.303 | 3.78 | 0.269 | 0.743 | 0.289 | 4.41 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 17.8% |
| Norris | 0.383 | 4.41 | 0.301 | 3.62 | 0.271 | 0.736 | 0.245 | 4.98 | 0.232 | 0.01 | 18.1% |
| Sanchez | 0.347 | 3.60 | 0.240 | 2.95 | 0.272 | 0.786 | 0.275 | 4.01 | 0.233 | 0.00 | 19.6% |
| Anderson | 0.289 | 2.19 | 0.265 | 0.785 | 0.346 | 1.60 | 0.257 | 0.08 | 24.7% | ||
| Keuchel | 0.229 | 2.96 | 0.297 | 3.47 | 0.241 | 0.691 | 0.290 | 3.25 | 0.237 | 0.00 | 22.7% |
| Weaver | 0.346 | 4.62 | 0.341 | 5.08 | 0.250 | 0.750 | 0.284 | 5.09 | 0.274 | 0.00 | 13.4% |
| Gallardo | 0.344 | 4.67 | 0.312 | 2.90 | 0.239 | 0.677 | 0.308 | 4.09 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 15.0% |
| Friedrich | 0.298 | 3.67 | 0.361 | 5.11 | 0.242 | 0.687 | 0.334 | 4.18 | 0.284 | 0.00 | 17.1% |
| Eflin | 0.264 | 0.739 | 0.268 | 5.85 | 0.277 | 0.00 | 8.7% | ||||
| Bradley | 0.328 | 3.95 | 0.329 | 6.20 | 0.241 | 0.679 | 0.283 | 4.72 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 20.0% |
| Verrett | 0.285 | 2.96 | 0.334 | 4.78 | 0.246 | 0.718 | 0.253 | 4.67 | 0.229 | 0.01 | 19.0% |
| Scherzer | 0.303 | 3.25 | 0.228 | 2.81 | 0.241 | 0.710 | 0.263 | 3.10 | 0.204 | 0.01 | 31.3% |
| Martinez | 0.306 | 3.38 | 0.387 | 4.79 | 0.247 | 0.728 | 0.295 | 5.16 | 0.274 | 0.00 | 13.2% |
| Tanaka | 0.270 | 3.38 | 0.285 | 3.25 | 0.258 | 0.739 | 0.250 | 3.71 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 21.3% |
| Salazar | 0.282 | 3.35 | 0.282 | 2.92 | 0.253 | 0.676 | 0.269 | 3.51 | 0.211 | 0.01 | 26.6% |
| De La Cruz | 0.253 | 0.737 | |||||||||
| Stewart | 0.255 | 0.714 | |||||||||
| Guerra | 0.294 | 3.45 | 0.312 | 4.24 | 0.243 | 0.722 | 0.276 | 3.97 | 0.237 | 0.02 | 21.1% |
| Nolasco | 0.334 | 4.72 | 0.352 | 6.15 | 0.250 | 0.703 | 0.351 | 3.65 | 0.295 | 0.00 | 19.5% |
| Shields | 0.384 | 4.75 | 0.311 | 4.42 | 0.243 | 0.699 | 0.313 | 4.69 | 0.262 | 0.00 | 22.9% |
| Volquez | 0.300 | 3.51 | 0.321 | 4.61 | 0.264 | 0.761 | 0.297 | 3.95 | 0.254 | 0.00 | 18.1% |
| Martinez | 0.323 | 3.76 | 0.251 | 2.27 | 0.269 | 0.734 | 0.294 | 3.34 | 0.233 | 0.01 | 22.8% |
| Peavy | 0.316 | 3.66 | 0.321 | 4.82 | 0.250 | 0.699 | 0.291 | 3.85 | 0.255 | 0.01 | 17.8% |
| Manaea | 0.217 | 3.00 | 0.376 | 6.99 | 0.265 | 0.713 | 0.311 | 4.71 | 0.276 | 0.00 | 18.4% |
| Taillon | 0.358 | 4.50 | 0.249 | 0.736 | 0.303 | 4.95 | 0.282 | 0.04 | 16.5% | ||
| Miley | 0.308 | 4.50 | 0.334 | 4.75 | 0.255 | 0.712 | 0.306 | 4.10 | 0.267 | 0.00 | 17.8% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Kyle Hendricks CHC (at CIN) – Hendriks is the call before the storm, at least according to this list of rankings. He is a safe, secure option that lies beneath the priciest tier of pitchers but above the volatile young guns. His 2.71 ERA this season sharpens the illusion of safety, and a 12-strikeout outlier (his second-highest total on the season is 8 Ks) has buffered a strikeout rate that suddenly looks palatable – that one start vaulted his 2016 K-rate from 7.5 K/9 to 8.3 K/9. There are a lot of holes in his value proposition, however, starting with the K rate and continuing with his price ($9500 on DK). His offense supposedly gives Hendriks an advantage in earning wins, but his record is just 5-6 and his propensity to get bounced from the game before the seventh inning hurts his cause.
Jameson Taillon PIT (at SEA) – I have to admit that this lofty ranking is heavily influenced by his stuff, his minor league performance and his perceived upside, perhaps at the expense of what he has shown so far at the highest level. Taillon has had lackluster performances in three of his four major league starts, but his 8.0 innings of scoreless baseball against the Mets (with just four baserunners) has kept his value afloat. He has gone just 4.0 innings in each of his last two starts, giving up exactly eight hits and four runs in each game. Facing the Cubs (as he did on June 19) is a tough assignment for any pitcher, but he repeated the feat against the Dodgers. The missing component has been the strikeouts, with just 15 Ks through his first 22.0 innings and no more than five strikeouts in any one of his four starts. The Pirates have also limited Taillon to 91 or fewer pitches in each of his first four turns, so he may not have a long enough leash to make a big impact in DFS.
Brock Stewart LAD (at MIL) – There are two pitchers making their MLB debuts today, but their profiles are extremely different. Stewart is the fast-rising arm who was drafted in 2014, has jumped up three levels this season and has posted an incredible K:BB ratio of 99:14 in 86.0 innings along the way. He has been nothing short of dominant in his two years since being a sixth round draft pick, with 10.0 K/9 in the minors but a walk rate of just 2.2 BB/9, and the fact that he is facing the free-swinging Brewers opens up the possibility that he racks up a solid K count in his big league debut. At a bargain basement price ($5200 on DraftKings), one can pair Brock with one of the All-In arms and still have cap room for a thick lineup. He won’t throw a ton of pitches, having stayed in the 85-95 pitch range throughout his minor-league ascension this season, but if he is half as hard to hit in the majors than he was in the minors then it won’t matter.
Archie Bradley ARI (vs. PHI)
Jake Peavy SF (at OAK)
Dallas Keuchel HOU (at LAA)
Edinson Volquez KC (vs. STL)
Matt Moore TB (vs. BOS)
Tom Koehler MIA (at DET)
Logan Verrett NYM (at WAS)
Bud Norris DET (vs. MIA)
Jered Weaver LAA (vs. HOU)
Junior Guerra MIL (vs. LAD)
Sean Manaea OAK (vs. SF)
Ricky Nolasco MIN (at CHW)
Wade Miley SEA (vs. PIT)
Nick Martinez TEX (at NYY)
Cody Reed CIN (vs. CHC)
Yovani Gallardo BAL (at SD)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
James Shields CHW (vs. MIN) – Shields was not lit in his last start, a fact that has been viewed as an accomplishment given the formidable offense of the Red Sox and the utter implosion that characterized his previous month of work. It was still a bad start by just about any other barometer, with four walks and three runs allowed against just three strikeouts over 5.0 innings, so optimism should be muted. Perhaps Shields is starting to crawl from the muck, but the residue is so thick that he will need to show some semblance of his prior level of effectiveness before he is to be trusted again.
Zach Eflin PHI (at ARI)
Aaron Sanchez TOR (at COL) – Sanchez was up all night researching the baseball rules to see if he can get an asterisk or a mulligan for today’s start in Colorado. Nope.
Christian Friedrich SD (vs. BAL)
Joel De La Cruz ATL (vs. CLE) – The 27-year-old De La Cruz makes his major league debut tonight, but his minor-league numbers tell us all we need to know about his prospects for tonight: a 4.68 ERA at Triple-A Gwinnett, with a 44:24 K:BB ratio in 57.2 innings. He’s the type of high-contact punching bag that makes the stack-savvy DFS gamer salivate like a Pavlovian dog.
Tyler Anderson COL (vs. TOR) – There are a lot of stack-worthy pitchers on today’s slate, and despite Anderson’s 2.17 ERA, he gets my nod for the bottom spot. A lefty facing Toronto in Coors? That’s just too sweet.
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