Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, May 10th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2017-05-10 16:45:07

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	Team	Opp	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	GB%
Yovani Gallardo	SEA	PHI	152.1	5.2	5.13	1.56	21.74%	16.4%	10.8%	1.06	44.0%
Matt Cain	SFG	NYM	120	5.4	4.73	1.53	23.53%	18.0%	8.8%	1.43	38.6%
Jaime Garcia	ATL	HOU	201	4.57	4.13	1.37	30.00%	19.3%	8.1%	1.34	54.7%
Kyle Hendricks	CHC	COL	223.1	2.34	3.8	1.02	63.33%	22.3%	6.6%	0.81	48.6%
Jesse Chavez	LAA	OAK	103.1	4.44	3.84	1.34		21.5%	7.2%	1.57	42.8%
Wade Miley	BAL	WAS	197.2	4.87	4.17	1.41	30.00%	20.8%	8.1%	1.27	47.3%
Danny Salazar	CLE	TOR	171	3.95	3.73	1.37	40.00%	28.7%	10.8%	1.05	45.9%
Jason Hammel	KCR	TBR	194.1	4.08	4.36	1.28	53.33%	20.6%	8.3%	1.25	41.5%
Lance Lynn	STL	MIA	35.1	2.04	4.04	1.08		21.4%	8.3%	1.02	48.4%
Luis Perdomo	SDP	TEX	169	5.49	3.93	1.54	30.00%	16.3%	6.9%	1.28	60.2%
Phil Hughes	MIN	CHW	92.1	5.36	4.94	1.46	18.18%	13.6%	4.7%	1.56	34.4%
Kyle Kendrick	BOS	MIL	4	13.5	6.53	2.5		4.6%	9.1%	2.25	38.9%
Matt Boyd	DET	ARI	130.2	4.34	4.57	1.32	27.78%	19.0%	8.1%	1.38	38.6%
Chad Kuhl	PIT	LAD	96.2	4.56	4.6	1.4	57.14%	17.6%	7.6%	0.74	43.5%
Zach Eflin	PHI	SEA	89.1	4.63	5.2	1.19	36.36%	11.5%	5.4%	1.51	39.5%
Tommy Milone	NYM	SFG	90.1	5.88	4.46	1.52	16.67%	16.1%	5.9%	2.09	43.5%
Joe Musgrove	HOU	ATL	93.2	4.52	4.16	1.28	40.00%	20.0%	6.6%	1.44	42.4%
German Marquez	COL	CHC	36.2	6.14	4.35	1.66	33.33%	16.2%	7.5%	0.98	50.8%
Andrew Triggs	OAK	LAA	91	3.56	3.42	1.15	14.29%	21.5%	5.3%	0.59	52.6%
Stephen Strasburg	WAS	BAL	188.1	3.39	3.3	1.1	58.33%	28.8%	7.2%	0.81	42.6%
Francisco Liriano	TOR	CLE	189.1	4.66	4.43	1.52	41.38%	23.1%	12.3%	1.38	51.5%
Chris Archer	TBR	KCR	246.2	3.94	3.55	1.24	33.33%	27.1%	8.0%	1.24	45.8%
Tom Koehler	MIA	STL	206.2	4.49	4.86	1.47	39.39%	18.9%	10.6%	1.35	41.5%
Yu Darvish	TEX	SDP	146	3.21	3.37	1.12	47.06%	29.9%	8.7%	1.05	39.5%
Derek Holland	CHW	MIN	143	4.22	4.91	1.31	45.00%	15.9%	7.7%	1.13	37.9%
Chase Anderson	MIL	BOS	186.1	4.11	4.59	1.34	16.67%	19.0%	8.2%	1.40	36.9%
Zack Godley	ARI	DET	79.2	6.21	4.15	1.48	22.22%	18.5%	7.8%	1.58	54.0%
Kenta Maeda	LAD	PIT	206.2	3.83	3.66	1.17	43.75%	25.2%	7.0%	1.18	42.1%

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Yu Darvish TEX (vs. SD, $10700) – Tonight might be a split-slate, but there is no shortage of top-level arms at our DFS disposal. Darvish is not only the most talented of the bunch (with arguably the highest upside), but he is also facing the weakest opponent, a strikeout-laden Padres team that puts the over/under on Yu’s K-count at 9.5 strikeouts for tonight. Darvish is having a fine year, including a 2.76 ERA that would qualify as a career-low, but the strikeout rate has been uncharacteristically mild in 2017. Darvish has just barely struck out more than a batter per inning in 2017 (46 Ks in 45.2 IP, 25.6 percent of batters faced), after posting a rate of 11.3 K/9 (and 30.0 percent) or higher in each of the past three seasons that he pitched. He does already have two games of double-digit strikeouts on his ‘17 resume, but both outings barely cleared the arbitrary threshold with exactly 10 strikeouts, and in four of his other five starts Darvish has struck out five or fewer batters. Given his opponent, this ranking reflects the expectation that tonight he’ll have his best performance of the early season.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Chris Archer TB (vs. KC, $10800) – Archer was in very close contention for the top spot, and his strikeout-heavy performance to date might merit a flip-flop with Darvish. Both players are facing easy opponents, and though the Royals are still a contact-heavy team that is unlikely to contribute to a huge strikeout total, they have also scored the fewest runs in baseball. The cost of either Archer or Darvish is far from overwhelming, with cozy enough price tags that an arms-crazy gamer might opt to roster both elite pitchers and sacrifice a hitter slot in the lineup (but little else). On the whole of the season, Archer is up to his usual bat-missing ways, registering 48 strikeouts in 45.1 innings (25.7 percent), but his per-game output has been a roll of the dice. Three out of seven of his starts have featured eight or more strikeouts, but the other four outings bore just five strikeouts apiece.

Danny Salazar CLE (at TOR, $9700) – Strikeouts are the name of the pitching game in DFS, so it’s no coincidence that the four most expensive pitchers earn a Raise designation due to their profit potential, formed on the backbone of high strikeout rates. The most glaring example might be Danny Salazar, a pitcher whose 4.13 pitches per plate appearance ranks as the ninth-highest mark in the AL, limiting him to a season-high of 6.1 innings in any one outing despite throwing 97 or more pitches in every start. Salazar lasted less than five innings in his last start, but the right-hander struck out seven batters and still posted a respectable line of 14.5 points on DraftKings. It was his lowest mark of the season, representing a surprisingly high floor for a pitcher whose volatility can drive a sane man mad.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (vs. BAL, $10400) – On merit alone, Stras is right there with the top two names on today’s breakdown, but in this case his opponent makes all the difference. Whereas Darvish and Archer have soft assignments tonight, Strasburg is tasked with slowing down the powerful lineup of the O’s, a team that is notoriously weak against southpaws (not that it stopped them from hanging a six-spot on Gio Gonzalez two days ago) but frighteningly strong against right-handers. That said, we’re now more than a month into the season and the Orioles’ team The big right-handed bats in the lineup have heavily-backwards platoon splits, particularly in the power department, adding to the fear factor when Stras is facing Manny Machado, Adam Jones or Jonathan Schoop.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	Team	Opp	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	SIERA	BABIP	FIP
Yovani Gallardo	SEA	PHI	0.336	5.93	0.345	4.61	0.273	5.13	0.309	4.65
Matt Cain	SFG	NYM	0.383	5.03	0.335	5.65	0.283	4.73	0.32	4.89
Jaime Garcia	ATL	HOU	0.29	2.81	0.342	5.03	0.26	4.13	0.296	4.57
Kyle Hendricks	CHC	COL	0.275	1.97	0.253	2.62	0.209	3.8	0.251	3.42
Jesse Chavez	LAA	OAK	0.332	5.48	0.33	3.71	0.268	3.84	0.308	4.52
Wade Miley	BAL	WAS	0.286	3.32	0.351	5.31	0.273	4.17	0.322	4.33
Danny Salazar	CLE	TOR	0.297	4.12	0.321	3.8	0.238	3.73	0.321	3.64
Jason Hammel	KCR	TBR	0.336	3.9	0.303	4.21	0.242	4.36	0.28	4.41
Lance Lynn	STL	MIA	0.388	4.05	0.192	0.82	0.202	4.04	0.234	4.07
Luis Perdomo	SDP	TEX	0.372	6.57	0.333	4.64	0.301	3.93	0.338	4.6
Phil Hughes	MIN	CHW	0.382	5.4	0.338	5.34	0.302	4.94	0.319	4.8
Kyle Kendrick	BOS	MIL	0.574	27	0.384	9	0.4	6.53	0.389	7.25
Matt Boyd	DET	ARI	0.26	3.18	0.336	4.58	0.251	4.57	0.282	4.62
Chad Kuhl	PIT	LAD	0.401	5.98	0.272	3.54	0.27	4.6	0.317	3.83
Zach Eflin	PHI	SEA	0.333	5.8	0.311	3.45	0.246	5.2	0.243	5.13
Tommy Milone	NYM	SFG	0.336	3.92	0.375	6.46	0.298	4.46	0.314	5.53
Joe Musgrove	HOU	ATL	0.336	4.87	0.33	4.25	0.258	4.16	0.292	4.45
German Marquez	COL	CHC	0.369	6.62	0.4	5.68	0.306	4.35	0.352	4.28
Andrew Triggs	OAK	LAA	0.287	4.02	0.276	3.2	0.239	3.42	0.296	3
Stephen Strasburg	WAS	BAL	0.257	3.28	0.29	3.51	0.216	3.3	0.288	2.87
Francisco Liriano	TOR	CLE	0.308	3.77	0.347	4.92	0.247	4.43	0.3	4.86
Chris Archer	TBR	KCR	0.307	4.35	0.298	3.59	0.234	3.55	0.296	3.69
Tom Koehler	MIA	STL	0.353	4.49	0.322	4.49	0.26	4.86	0.295	4.91
Yu Darvish	TEX	SDP	0.273	3.22	0.277	3.19	0.205	3.37	0.272	3.31
Derek Holland	CHW	MIN	0.245	1.8	0.332	4.73	0.253	4.91	0.278	4.48
Chase Anderson	MIL	BOS	0.298	3.83	0.369	4.33	0.257	4.59	0.288	4.66
Zack Godley	ARI	DET	0.385	6.56	0.333	5.93	0.277	4.15	0.31	4.97
Kenta Maeda	LAD	PIT	0.329	3.97	0.257	3.72	0.233	3.66	0.287	3.72

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Lance Lynn STL (at MIA, $8400) – Something tells me that his .239 BABiP is unsustainable, given that his previous season-low was a .293 mark and his other three full seasons were each above .320. Inflate the hit rate back to something approaching normal and we get a replica of vintage Lance Lynn, an effective pitcher who fits right into the mold of a no.3 starter. Pessimism aside, Lynn is on an incredible run, with a 0.72 ERA over his last four starts, including a 23:7 K:BB and just 16 hits allowed in 25.0 innings. The price tag isn’t bad in a vacuum, but his light is dimmed by the relative affordability of the top options.

Kenta Maeda LAD (vs. PIT, $9200) – Maeda was a mess for his first four starts of the season, carrying an 8.05 ERA after coughing up four homers to the Diamondbacks on April 22. He went no more than 5.0 innings, gave up at least three runs (including one homer) and struck out five or less batters in each of those first four starts, but he has come back over his last two turns, giving up a total of three earned runs with a K:BB of 16:4 in 12.0 innings. He’s only been allowed to go past 87 pitches once this season, which is likely denting his ownership rate even further; Maeda is stuck in limbo at this price and he is likely to be lightly owned as a result.

Francisco Liriano TOR (vs. CLE, $7700) – Inefficient. Volatile. Combustible. All of these adjectives describe Liriano, so pick your favorite. He’s gone deeper than 5.1 innings in just one of his six starts this season, has a 13:13 K:BB over his last three appearances (with at least four walks in each) and has yet to clear 100 pitches in any ballgame. He does have 30 strikeouts in 26.1 innings, offering a silver lining to complement his dark cloud of performance, but facing the Rays and their MLB-leading strikeout total in three of his six starts is likely skewing his K numbers. Only roster Liriano if you’re a fan of headaches.

Chase Anderson MIL (vs. BOS, $6200) – I have tempered my enthusiasm a bit for Anderson, following a pair of starts in which he gave up four earned runs in each start, with his last turn being his shortest of the season at 4.2 innings pitched. Anderson got the quick hook despite the Brewers leaving him for 10 more pitches than any other start this season, as he was held under 90 throws in each of his first five starts. He is also facing a Boston offense that is starting to hit its stride, with 35 runs scored during a three-game set against the Brewers. The price is so low that he might just be worth a flyer in large tournaments, just to stack up the lineup and see if he can dodge a few bullets to turn a profit, but Anderson is not a cash play on tonight’s slate.

Derek Holland CHW (vs. MIN, $8100) – I get it, Holland has had a nice little run to start the year, with a 2.02 ERA over his first six starts of the campaign, but the price is too high for a pitcher that is playing way over his own head and above his peripherals. The K:BB is just 30:12 in 35.2 innings this season, numbers that are slightly swollen but otherwise in line with his career peripherals, and the real outliers are a slightly reduced homer rate and a greatly reduced hit rate, the latter of which is largely out of his control while the former is one bad outing away from getting back to his career norms.

Wade Miley BAL (at WAS, $6500) – Miley successfully walked between the raindrops to keep runs off the scoreboard for his first five starts of the season, compiling a 2.32 ERA over that stretch despite walking five or more batters in three of his first five starts, and now he faces a Washington offense that is steamrolling the National League. He was ousted in the first inning of his last start, literally knocked off the mound by a pair of line drive comebackers, but Miley is making his return five days later. The price is low enough that Miley makes for an interesting contrarian play in large-scale tournaments, throwing a few shekels at the low percentage play, but he’s not to be trusted in cash games for obvious reasons.

Tom Koehler MIA (vs. STL, $6300)

Luis Perdomo SD (at TEX, $6000)

Matt Boyd DET (at ARI, $5900)

Phil Hughes MIN (at CHW, $6000)

Jason Hammel KC (at TB, $7600) – It’s not that I think Hammel is that much worse than the names above him, but rather the extra $1500 or so that it takes to secure his services. The Rays were raking through the season’s first month, but their offense has settled into a middle-tier attack that is known more for their strikeouts (team total of 360 Ks leads the majors by 46) than their run-scoring. Even with that being the case, it’s hard to recommend Hammel at his current price point.

Chad Kuhl PIT (at LAD, $5800)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Zack Godley ARI (vs. DET, $4800)

Kyle Kendrick BOS (at MIL, $5200)