FantasyDraft MLB Expert Survey: Tuesday, August 13th
Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in MLB DFS today? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy baseball analysts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for tonight’s contests. NOTE: Surveys for early slates will be posted when there are four or more early games.
Tuesday, August 13th
Who is your favorite hitter for cash games?
Notorious: Aaron Judge
CheeseIsGood: Nolan Arenado
meansy53: Gleyber Torres
boggslite: Charlie Blackmon
Who is your favorite hitter for tournaments?
Notorious: Anthony Rendon
CheeseIsGood: Anthony Rendon
meansy53: Cody Bellinger
boggslite: Ketel Marte
Who is your favorite pitcher for cash games?
Notorious: Matt Boyd
CheeseIsGood: Matt Boyd
meansy53: Matt Boyd
boggslite: Matt Boyd
Who is your favorite pitcher for tournaments?
Notorious: Jack Flaherty
CheeseIsGood: Lance Lynn
meansy53: Lance Lynn
boggslite: Chris Sale
Who is your favorite cheap pitcher for cash games?
Notorious: Dustin May
CheeseIsGood: Dustin May
meansy53: Dustin May
boggslite: Dustin May
Who is your favorite cheap pitcher for tournaments?
Notorious: Max Fried
CheeseIsGood: Thomas Pannone
meansy53: Thomas Pannone
boggslite: Thomas Pannone
Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?
Notorious: Josh VanMeter
CheeseIsGood: Brian Dozier
meansy53: Victor Robles
boggslite: Justin Smoak
Who is your top contrarian play on the board?
Notorious: Mike Trout
CheeseIsGood: Pete Alonso
meansy53: Domingo Santana
boggslite: Danny Santana
Which player are you most afraid of having little to no exposure to?
Notorious: Chris Sale
CheeseIsGood: Christian Walker
meansy53: Christian Yelich
boggslite: Pete Alonso
Which high-priced pitcher will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Notorious: Zack Wheeler
CheeseIsGood: Zack Wheeler
meansy53: Zack Wheeler
boggslite: Zack Wheeler
Which high-priced hitter will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Notorious: Ronald Acuna
CheeseIsGood: Andrew Benintendi
meansy53: Christian Yelich
boggslite: Eric Sogard
What’s your sneaky home run call of the day?
Notorious: Nick Castellanos
CheeseIsGood: Ronny Rodriguez
meansy53: Renato Nunez
boggslite: Tom Murphy
What’s your favorite overall team stack?
Notorious: NYY
CheeseIsGood: NYY
meansy53: ARI
boggslite: COL
What’s your favorite sneaky team stack?
Notorious: CIN
CheeseIsGood: STL
meansy53: LAD
boggslite: COL
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Notorious: The Tigers are basically free across the industry, they have an implied team total over five runs, and they are getting little to no ownership. Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a .230+ ISO to batters from both sides of the plate and has given up 31 home runs in only 24 starts. If you want to spend up on pitching, the Tigers are a great source of cap relief.
CheeseIsGood: Not only do we have 13 pitchers with a strikeout rate above 25% this season, seven of them are over 30% since the All-Star Break. That’s a lot of upside and it will be tough to win without a big score at pitcher tonight.
meansy53: Of the 32 pitchers taking the mound today, 21 of them have a 2019 K% of at least 20%. A notable one below that threshold is John Means, who was an All Star this year.
boggslite: Current active MIA hitters have combined for a 6.5% walk rate, a 24% strikeout rate, and a slate-low 82 wRC+ against RHP this season.
What is your hot take of the day?
Notorious: The Tigers and Reds both score at least eight runs.
CheeseIsGood: No team scores 10 runs on this slate, and winning GPP teams contain no 4-5 man stacks.
meansy53: The Dodgers score at least 15 runs against Jordan Yamamoto and the terrible Marlins bullpen.
boggslite: AZ/COL combine for 15+ runs at lower than expected ownership.
Who is your top overall pitcher (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Matt Boyd – I would have put Gerrit Cole here, but he’s not featured on the main slates across the industry. I’ll gladly pivot to Boyd, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. In 24 starts, he owns a 3.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a walk rate of 6%. After a string of difficult matchups, he finally draws a favorable one against the Mariners at home. Seattle’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .312 with an average k-rate of 24% against southpaws.
CheeseIsGood: Matt Boyd – This is a great pitching slate, and the gap is small between all the aces. With so many upside aces, I’m going to let salary and matchup dictate the decisions. Matt Boyd and Chris Sale are both at very likeable salaries and have very similar overall skills. But Sale is facing a strong Indians lineup while Boyd faces a Mariners team with the highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitching. Boyd had his worst start of the season last week, but prior to that, had 8+ strikeouts in seven consecutive starts. His strikeout ability plus the strikeouts in the Mariners lineup give him a high floor and ceiling at a fair salary.
meansy53: Matt Boyd – While Boyd may fall a tick behind a few other names on this slate in terms of 2019 overall K% (31.9% for the record), the fact that he is the cheapest of the bunch with such an elite matchup shoots him to the top of the list for me. This Seattle team strikes out a ton against LHP, coming in with the highest K% in the league in this split at 26.3%. I am treating his last start as a huge outlier. In fact, the last time he recorded below 10 DK / 20 FD points prior to that start was on May 13th. The two biggest power threats here for Seattle (Santana, Murphy) also just so happen to be their biggest strikeout bats. Sure, he probably gives up a bomb or two; it is rare he has a start when he doesn’t. However, the strikeouts should be plentiful against this Seattle team, and I see him recording at least 10 of them with upside for more. He is $1,600 cheaper than the most expensive pitcher on FD (Kershaw) and $2,400 cheaper on DK (Cole).
boggslite: Dustin May – He may look like a clown, but May is a talented prospect who is coming off a strong start. He draws a great matchup against a weak MIA offense that struggles against RHP, notably their lack of plate discipline. This bodes well for May, who should have no problems cruising to an easy victory at a very attractive price tag.
Who is your top overall hitter (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Anthony Rendon – If you want to load up on Coors Field tonight, I certainly won’t talk you out of it. However, we have two above-average pitchers on the mound in Colorado and two below-average pitchers on the mound in Washington. Alex Wood has a k-rate of only 18% this season and has allowed a .399 xwOBA and a .268 ISO to batters from the right side of the plate. Meanwhile, Rendon is one of the best hitters in baseball against southpaws. On the season, he boasts a .427 xwOBA and a 159 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
CheeseIsGood: Nolan Arenado – Overall, the Coors Field game is not a high priority or any sort of must play tonight. But we don’t have much in the way of must-plays anywhere with the bats tonight, and if I only have one spend available in cash games, this is where I would go. It’s a limited sample size on Zac Gallen, but he has looked very reverse splitsy, with a 34.5% K rate to lefties and just 23.8% to righties, along with 42% hard hits and fly balls to righties. Arenado is the best pure hitter in the Rockies lineup to begin with, and adding on the fact that the masses will still usually gravitate towards lefty vs righty matchups, I also like the possibility of low ownership for Arenado and Trevor Story in tournaments.
meansy53: Kris Bryant – According to our Ballpark Factors, this is the best park in the league for right-handed home runs. So right away, this big park shift for Bryant stands out to me. And with his numbers against LHP this season (.483 wOBA, .365 ISO, 45.3% FB%, 40.6% Hard%, 18.4% K%, 17.5% BB%), I am loving his floor/ceiling combination against Vargas. Vargas is probably better than most people give him credit for (except for Grant, who has him as this year’s Cy Young winner), but this is still nothing more than an average pitcher who has been able to pitch in one of the best pitchers parks in the league the past two seasons before recently getting traded to Philly. Bryant is flat out too cheap across the industry considering he is absolutely hitting at least one dong tonight.
boggslite: Charlie Blackmon – A matchup against a talented young righty in Gallen may seem risky, but Blackmon has crushed righties at Coors Field this season to the tune of a .518 wOBA and a .417 ISO. He won’t be cheap, but as a result it may lower his ownership, making a solid all around play that I won’t hesitate to pay up for.
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