First Look at DraftKings' NFL Week 1 Prices
DraftKings announced two massive opening week NFL GPPs yesterday, including a $20 entry fee $5.55M Millionaire Maker that will award a cool million dollars to the winner and a $3 20-max $2M Play-Action that will award $200K to the person with the top score.
With contest releases come player salaries and we’ve got a lot to look at in anticipation of those huge contests. As is always the case when salaries come out this far in advance things can change, but that doesn’t mean we can’t look for some potential pricing errors that we can find value in and take advantage of when constructing our lineups.
— Google Doc with DraftKings Prices Sorted by Position —
Quarterback
QB pricing is tight at the top meaning ownership should be spread out pretty evenly for this group. DK has priced up Ben Roethlisberger in his matchup against the Browns (29th in 2016 Pass DVOA) and made him the top priced QB at $7,300 which is a relatively low number for QB1 (Aaron Rodgers was $8,500 last year facing Jacksonville). There are 10 other QBs priced within $1K of Big Ben and I like Kirk Cousins best of this tier at just $6,400. There’s going to be some merit to fading him due to expected high ownership but I’d rather get my exposure to the Redskins through Cousins and fade his receivers if I’m going to play the fade game with them in Week 1. Cam Newton is QB2 here so DK must be expecting a bounce back after a disappointing 2016 campaign – he does get a soft matchup against the 49ers (28th in 2016 Pass DVOA) so he’s certainly worth consideration at the elevated price tag and he’ll likely be much lower owned than the other QBs in this top tier due to his price and last season’s performance.
Carson Palmer headlines the $6K and under group (at exactly $6K) with a nice matchup against a Detroit team that struggled mightily against the pass last season (32nd in Pass DVOA). Reports are in that he looks better than last season (where he struggled to get the ball downfield) but I’ll believe it when I see it. Carson Wentz at $5,300 in a game projected to be close and with a total approaching 50 is appealing as a value QB. I like him better than other value options in this area that include Jared Goff ($4,800), Blake Bortles ($4,800), and whomever is starting for the Texans (Tom Savage and Deshaun Watson are both $4,800).
Running Back
It’s going to be hard to jam in Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson in the same lineup this season on DK (it was possible for most of the first half of last season) with their price tags starting off at $9,800 and $9,400 respectively (for comparison purposes, Johnson’s Week 1 price last year was just $7,500). LeSean McCoy provides a nice savings at RB3 at $8,200 and has the best possible matchup against the Jets defense that people will likely fade due to their #1 Rush DVOA ranking last season (this should drop dramatically in 2017) . I like him much better then Zeke at $8,100. After those four there is a big drop in price (rightfully so), and Darren McFadden finds himself at RB9 at $6,100 on the assumption that Elliott might miss some time. I’ll pass on that price facing the Giants (2nd in Rush DVOA) with the likes of Jordan Howard and Ty Montgomery comparably priced.
Three rookies are all priced in the mid-tier between $5,700 for Leonard Fournette, $5,500 for Joe Mixon, and $5,400 for Christian McCaffrey. I won’t touch Mixon with a 10-foot pole in Week 1 and Fournette has a tough matchup against the Texans that makes him a player to have light exposure to. McCaffrey, however, is very appealing facing the 49ers (31st in Rush DVOA), especially in a PPR format like DraftKings. The one concern is Carolina has never thrown to their RBs – but they’ve also never had a back like McCaffrey to catch the ball. Two other backs stand out in the over $5K group and they are Isaiah Crowell at $5,300 and Danny Woodhead at $5,200.
Value will be tricky at RB opening week but there are a few spots we can look. Jacquizz Rodgers at $4,900 should get the bulk of the work the first few weeks for the Bucs and he averaged over 18 DK fpts per game in a three-game stretch last season in a similar spot. Carlos Hyde seems under priced at $4,600 at RB30 – his ADP in season long drafts is about 10 spots higher (the Panthers are a tough team to run on though as they were 9th in Rush DVOA). The same can be said for Paul Perkins at RB39 at $4,300 (his ADP is also about 10 spots higher) as he is in line for the bulk of the Giants RB work. There’s no one under $4K really worth considering at this time unless you want to take a PPR flyer on receiving backs like Charles Sims ($3.9K), Darren Sproles ($3.9K), or Shane Vereen ($3.8K).
Wide Receiver
There are no glaring pricing mismatches at the top of the WR pricing on DK as the usual suspects Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham have the top three prices. All three are viable options opening week given their matchups. I like the three at the bottom end of the top 10 more though in terms of cost savings and matchup. Amari Cooper checks in at $7,200 facing a Titans defense that was vulnerable to the pass last season (27th in Pass DVOA). T.Y. Hilton at $6,900 facing the Rams (20th in Pass DVOA) and Doug Baldwin at $6,700 facing the Packers (23rd in Pass DVOA) also have plus matchups. That said, all three of those defenses should be improved but not sure they are going to make the leap from terrible to good so they are still worth attacking. I like Terrelle Pryor at $6,100 but he’s much cheaper at FanDuel and I’m going to try and get most of my exposure to him there.
In the middle tier, it appears DeVante Parker is being priced based on pre-season hype. With a new QB at the helm, I’m going to pass on his WR22 price tag. Others that appear to be a bit too high include Golden Tate at WR11, Kelvin Benjamin at WR17, and Randall Cobb at WR24. Players in this range that I like and think are priced fairly include DeAndre Hopkins (who used to be a top 5ish type and now comes in at WR16 at $5,900), Jamison Crowder ($5,600), Allen Robinson ($5,200), and Donte Moncrief ($5,000).
I love the players at the price group just under $5K with DeSean Jackson and John Brown both checking in at $4,900. Under $4K there are some value options in Robby Anderson ($3.8K), Kenny Golladay ($3.6K), and Josh Doctson ($3.5K). Depending on how John Ross looks in pre-season he could be a steal at $3,300. If it looks like he is going to have a significant role right out of the gate opposite A.J. Green then fire him up. A minimum priced punt to keep an eye on is Chris Harper of the Jets who could emerge as a viable receiving option with Quincy Enunwa out for the year. The Jets are a team that is probably going to have to throw the ball a lot (since they will be trailing most likely)
Tight End
Tight end is always a spot where you can find value on DraftKings as outside of three players (Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, and Jimmy Graham) they are all priced under $5K. The group between $3K and $4K is particularly attractive and you can make an argument for throwing TE in your flex on Week 1 (especially if you are trying to jam in a two high priced RBs/WRs). Jack Doyle at $3,700 headlines this group as he should be a focal point of the Colts passing attack with Dwayne Allen off to the Patriots. I also like Zach Ertz at $3,500 facing the Redskins (24th in Pass DVOA in 2016), Charles Clay at $3,200 facing the Jets (31st in Pass DVOA in 2016), and Cameron Brate at $3,100 facing the Dolphins. You can even make an argument for a couple players under that $3K price tag in Julius Thomas ($2,900), Evan Engram ($2,900), David Njoku ($2,700), and Jermaine Gresham ($2,700). So many choices – digging in and finding out who has the best matchup against opposing LB’s and safeties could make the big difference and that’s where I’ll be focusing my research on as we head towards opening week.
Defense
DK always has a big gap in the pricing of their top defenses and those at the bottom rung. Week 1 sees the Bills (facing the Jets) at the high end at $3,900 with the Browns at the low end at $2,000. There aren’t many options under $3K worth utilizing but you could take a flyer on the Packers ($2,500 hosting Seattle), the Raiders ($2,500 at the Titans), the Giants ($2,600 at the Cowboys), the Colts ($2,700 at the Rams), and the Cardinals ($2,800 at the Lions). The Bills are the obvious top option but the Texans at $3,800 hosting Blake Bortles and the Jaguars are a excellent alternative. The Steelers are priced a bit high for my tastes at $3,600 but considering they are facing the Browns you can’t ignore them. I really like the Panthers at $3,500 facing the 49ers and the Falcons at $3,300 facing the Bears and their unproven QB.