MLB DFS Slate Preview: Monday, July 31
Taylor Smith previews the Monday, July 31st slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’ve got 9 MLB games on the board to start the new week. This is yet another slate with a little bit of everything. We’ve got what should be a very popular Padres team taking the field in Coors, though that’s hardly the only appealing offensive spot out there tonight. There is also a decent amount of pitching across several different price tiers, while weather could play a role in the proceedings, as well.
There’s a lot to get to, so let’s dive right in with some MLB DFS picks on a Monday night.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Right off the bat, the Coors game looks a bit dicey with a straight ORANGE as of this morning. Kevin Roth says there’s a flood watch in Denver tonight with storms expected to roll in during game hours. Since this is a later game, we may not have clarity on how to approach this one until after the first games lock. A postponement is a real possibility.
- MIL-WAS and TB-NYY are both GREEN/YELLOW with even a delay looking unlikely in either game.
- CIN-CHC is GREEN with light winds blowing in from right field.
- None of the games on tonight’s slate feature extremely hot conditions with temps north of 90 by game time, though Atlanta looks like the best non-Coors hitting environment on the slate from a weather standpoint with temperatures in the upper-80s to begin play.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The Yankees scratched Domingo German from his scheduled start tonight at home against the Rays. Jhony Brito is likely to draw a spot start in his place.
- Nick Pivetta was a candidate to pitch long relief yesterday in San Francisco, but he didn’t wind up getting into the game. As a result, he’ll start for the Sox tonight in Seattle. The right-hander has been in terrific form since moving to a bullpen role, and he projects as a stellar value this evening at just $6,600 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel.
- Noah Syndergaard will make his Guardians debut tonight in Houston after coming over in the Amed Rosario trade from LA last week. Thor really struggled in a Dodger uniform earlier in the year, and he hasn’t pitched in a big-league game since June 7. A matchup with a suddenly-healthy version of the Astros is a brutal one.
- The Angels traded for CJ Cron and Randal Grichuk last night, so we’ll see if either newbie is in the lineup tonight when the Halos face Charlie Morton and the Braves in Atlanta. The Angels are also expected to be without Taylor Ward for the rest of the season after he was hit in the face by a pitch over the weekend. As of now, we have Trey Cabbage projected to start at first base for LAA tonight with Chad Wallach getting the nod behind the plate. Zach Neto missed another game yesterday with his lingering back soreness, so we’ll see if he returns tonight.
- Losing Cron and Grichuk will make the Rockies’ lineup considerably less potent the rest of the way. Michael Toglia figures to take over for Cron as the everyday first baseman, while Brenton Doyle and Nolan Jones should see more consistent time in the outfield. Jones left yesterday’s game due to cramping, but he’s in the projected lineup tonight.
- Colorado also activated Brendan Rodgers from the 60-day IL, while Coco Montes was recalled from the minors. Rodgers is set to make his 2023 debut after missing several months with a shoulder injury.
- Ha-Seong Kim left yesterday’s game with a jammed shoulder, and Bob Melvin said afterward he’s likely to miss tonight’s game in Denver. Matthew Batten is a candidate to start at second in Kim’s spot tonight.
- Jonathan India landed on the IL yesterday with plantar fasciitis in his left foot. The Reds already have a glut of infielders, so this relieves the logjam for the time being. Christian Encarnacion-Strand should see regular playing time with India on the shelf.
- LaMonte Wade hasn’t started a game since last Wednesday as a result of back spasms, though he did make an appearance as a pinch-hitter yesterday. If he’s good to go tonight, he should hit leadoff for the Giants at home against Ryne Nelson. Mike Yastrzemski left yesterday’s game with a tight hamstring, which puts his status for tonight into question.
- The D-Backs put Evan Longoria on the injured list over the weekend with a strained back. Josh Rojas was recalled to take his place on the roster.
- Dylan Moore has been unavailable for the past couple of games because of a wrist injury. Kolten Wong is projected to start at second for the M’s tonight against Pivetta.
- If the weather holds, the Padres at Coors should emerge as an extremely popular source of offense against hittable lefty Austin Gomber. San Diego has an implied run total pushing 7 runs, so it’s hard to argue. The likely absence of Kim slightly weakens the stack overall, but it will make them a bit more affordable. This newfangled, watered-down version of the Rockies figures to garner significantly less ownership on the other side of the same game against Seth Lugo, but any offense is stackable in this ballpark.
- The Padres project miles better than any other stack on the slate, but it’s baseball. There are plenty of other quality stacks from which to choose, with the Astros against Syndergaard looking like a fun place to start. The Braves don’t have as easy a matchup against Griffin Canning, but stacking the Braves is generally a wise approach these days. The Rays are also very much on my radar against the power-prone Domingo German at Yankee Stadium.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Andrew Abbott ($10,800) is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel in a matchup against the suddenly-hot Cubs on the road. I’d expect the cheaper Tyler Glasnow ($10,600) and Corbin Burnes ($10,400) to be more popular given their more impressive track records, but saving money on the pitching side is a viable path, too. George Kirby ($9,800 vs. BOS) and Charlie Morton ($9,400 vs. LAA) project a bit better than the aforementioned aces. Pivetta ($8,000 at SEA) is probably the cheapest pitcher I’d target in any format on FD.
- Gomber has already allowed 22 home runs this year, and his numbers against lefties are arguably even worse than his numbers against righties to this point. I’d still expect Fernando Tatis ($4,500) and Manny Machado ($4,000) to be chalkier targets than Juan Soto ($4,100), but these guys all look terrific. Batten ($2,500) is the obvious cheapie to target assuming he cracks the lineup in Kim’s place, but guys like Xander Bogaerts ($3,400), Gary Sanchez ($3,300), and Jake Cronenworth ($3,200) aren’t overly pricey to begin with.
- The Braves also have an implied run total north of 6 because they’re the Braves. They’re more expensive than the Padres, though Ronald Acuna (11%) is the only guy in this lineup projected for decent ownership. Canning has an extreme reverse split from the right side, which is enough for me to vault Austin Riley ($3,800) slightly ahead of Matt Olson ($4,100), and Ozzie Albies ($3,900) in terms of priority in a Braves stack. Marcell Ozuna ($3,300) is a nice value on the right side of Canning’s split, too.
- The Astros boast tons of upside against Syndergaard, who has always struggled to hold runners. Syndergaard isn’t anything close to a strikeout pitcher anymore, and the groundball stuff he flashed last season has dipped in 2023. Kyle Tucker, Corey Julks, Chas McCormick, and Jeremy Pena have all stolen at least 10 bases this season, while Jose Altuve, Jake Meyers, and Mauricio Dubon are candidates to run in this matchup, too. Tucker’s $3,600 FD salary is particularly egregious, while even Yordan Alvarez ($4,000) is underpriced. Houston is pretty clearly the best value stack on the slate.
- Altuve has several paths to success tonight, which makes his Underdog squares look quite attackable. Our projections say taking Altuve to total more than 9.5 fantasy points is a particularly amazing value considering he’s projected for nearly 15 in this spot. New UD users should be sure to use our Underdog promo code for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit, up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Milwaukee is another affordable stack to consider against middling right-hander Jake Irvin. Irvin’s been torched by left-handed hitters this season (.365 wOBA), and most of the Brewers’ stack comes in at $3,000 or less on FD. Christian Yelich ($3,500) is quietly having a resurgent season, while Sal Frelick ($3,000) has given the lineup a nice jolt since he was called up. Abraham Toro (20%, tiny sample) and Willy Adames (11.8%) are the only other batters in the projected lineup with double-digit barrel rates vs. right-handed pitching this season. The addition of Carlos Santana ($3,300) gives the Brewers another lefty with some pop, which bodes well in this matchup.
- Glasnow ($10,500), Burnes ($10,200), and Abbott ($10,000) are also the most expensive pitcher on DK, though none of them are in perfect spots. Burnes’ matchup at Washington is the best for run prevention, but the Nats are an extremely low-strikeout lineup (17.8%) vs. right-handed pitching.
- Kirby ($8,600) and Pivetta ($6,600) are simply way too cheap on DK, which should make them relatively popular targets given the multi-pitcher format. As of now, Morton ($9,300) looks like the SP1 at home against the Angels. There are obviously some big names in this offense, but LA’s projected lineup has struck out nearly 29% of the time this season against righties. Chris Bassitt ($7,500) and Alex Cobb ($8,000) are two more names to keep in your GPP player pool against the Orioles and Diamondbacks, respectively.
- You’ll never believe this, but the Padres look good on DK, too. Tatis ($6,400), Soto ($6,100), and Machado ($5,600) will cost you, but there’s enough viable cheap pitching to make it work. SD having two catchers in the projected lineup – Gary Sanchez and Luis Campusano – makes stacking a little more complicated, but I’d expect Gary to be the trendier play given his long track record of hitting for power. Cronenworth is the only hitter in this lineup with a barrel rate of under 10% this season.
- The Guardians are in an interesting spot as a lefty-heavy lineup going up against JP France, a right-hander with a pronounced reverse split. They’ll be making plenty of contact given France’s struggles to miss bats, and these hitters stand out from a value standpoint. Josh Bell ($3,000), Gabriel Arias ($2,200), Bo Naylor ($2,900), and Will Brennan ($2,600) grade out as useful point-per-dollar plays, which puts Cleveland in play as a secondary stack next to your more expensive Padres, Braves, or Astros.
- We don’t have the greatest hitting weather at Wrigley tonight, but Abbott is an extreme flyball lefty that will yield some power. Christopher Morel (21.2% barrels), Dansby Swanson (14.5%), and Yan Gomes (12.2%) have impressive batted ball numbers vs. southpaws on the year, while even Cody Bellinger (10.1%) lefty-lefty is intriguing for GPPs. Seiya Suzuki, as usual, is awfully cheap over here, too ($3,100). I don’t mind a Cubs stack at all in multi-entry tournaments.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck!