MLB Grind Down: Friday, October 9th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Texas at Toronto – 12:45 PM EST
| Texas | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Cole Hamels |  | Marcus Stroman | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-180) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.641 | 0.291 | 20.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.618 | 0.276 | 20.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.659 | 0.290 | 25.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.623 | 0.278 | 20.40% |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Cole Hamels : FD: $10,600 — DK: $10,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 408.0 — SIERA: 3.37 — ERA: 3.09 — K%: 24.2% — BB%: 7.1% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 40.0 — SIERA: 3.44 — ERA: 3.83 — K%: 21.9% — BB%: 4.7% — HR/9: 0.9
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.367 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 7)
Pitches per PA: 3.86 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: The Rangers took a one-game lead over the Blue Jays with a huge win in Toronto yesterday. They could almost put the series out of reach if they can find a way to go home 2-0. Hamels comes into this start in relatively good form, posting a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.9% and a walk rate of 4.7% over the last month of play. His biggest issue today is his opponent. On the season, the Blue Jays are ranked first in team wOBA and third in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Hamels is listed as a huge underdog on the road and given the fact that the Blue Jays’ lineup is stacked top to bottom, I will be avoiding Hamels in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating: 67.6
Marcus Stroman : FD: $8,300 — DK: $8,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 157.2 — SIERA: 3.21 — ERA: 3.31 — K%: 20.3% — BB%: 5.3% — HR/9: 0.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 27.0 — SIERA: 3.29 — ERA: 1.67 — K%: 17.5% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 0.7
Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 8)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.350 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 17.9% (Rank: 4)
Pitches per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 14)
Analysis: Stroman doesn’t have a ton of innings under his belt this season, but that could be taken in a good way. There isn’t as much tread on his tires. He comes into this start in excellent form, posting a 3.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.5% over the last month of play. Much like Cole Hamels, the issue here is the opponent. The Rangers were tearing the cover off the ball in the last few weeks of the regular season and they put up five runs on David Price yesterday. Stroman does catch a little break though, as Adrian Beltre is not in the lineup. Stroman could be a cheap source for a win here, but if the game is close, the Blue Jays may be quick to turn to their bullpen.
Pitcher Rating: 75.4
Batter Grind Down
Texas
The Rangers’ offense continued to swing their bats well in yesterday’s win in Game 1. While they did lose Adrian Beltre (for at least one game), they still draw a decent matchup in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Marcus Stroman has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters, but the Rangers are projected to score 3.41 runs, which is the fourth-highest team total on the board.
Elite Plays:
Prince Fielder : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 517 — wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 135
Last 30 Days: PA: 131 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.159 — wRC+: 108
Secondary Plays:
Shin-Soo Choo : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 765 — wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.176 — wRC+: 126
Last 30 Days: PA: 134 — wOBA: 0.463 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 194
Rougned Odor : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 590 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.187 — wRC+: 101
Last 30 Days: PA: 115 — wOBA: 0.303 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 84
Mitch Moreland : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 494 — wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 101 — wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.233 — wRC+: 104
Toronto
The Blue Jays have the highest team total on the board on Friday and after putting up a dud offensively in Game 1, most people may look elsewhere for hitters. Don’t get too caught up in the one-game sample size. They are the best hitting team in baseball against left-handed pitching and they are playing at home in the American League’s version of Coors Field. The right-handed hitters in this lineup are all in play, as is the left-handed bat of Ben Revere.
Elite Plays:
Edwin Encarnacion : FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 226 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 140
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.448 — ISO: 0.337 — wRC+: 189
Troy Tulowitzki : FD: $3,600 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 207 — wOBA: 0.476 — ISO: 0.301 — wRC+: 194
Last 30 Days: PA: 35 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 88
Secondary Plays:
Josh Donaldson : FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 313 — wOBA: 0.434 — ISO: 0.350 — wRC+: 183
Last 30 Days: PA: 120 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.210 — wRC+: 138
Jose Bautista : FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 266 — wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.255 — wRC+: 164
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.359 — wRC+: 191
Chris Colabello : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 172 — wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.177 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.216 — wRC+: 126
Ben Revere : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 350 — wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.055 — wRC+: 96
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 111
Houston at Kansas City – 3:45 PM EST
| Houston | Kansas City | ||||||||
 | Scott Kazmir |  | Johnny Cueto | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| KCR (-136) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.272 | 0.728 | 0.320 | 17.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.203 | 0.579 | 0.260 | 23.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.222 | 0.641 | 0.285 | 21.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.660 | 0.290 | 22.10% |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Scott Kazmir : FD: $9,700 — DK: $7,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 373.1 — SIERA: 3.86 — ERA: 3.33 — K%: 20.7% — BB%: 7.1% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.0 — SIERA: 5.24 — ERA: 6.52 — K%: 12.9% — BB%: 7.9% — HR/9: 2.5
Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 15.1% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 18)
Pitches per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 30)
Analysis: Kazmir will draw the start for Game 2, after the Astros picked up a major win yesterday against Yordano Ventura. This young ball club wants to do what their opponent – the Royals – did last season and so far, they are off to a great start. They may have a tough time picking up a win in this one though, as Kazmir has been in awful form recently. Over the last month of play, he has a 5.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12.9%. I never like to target pitchers in bad form, especially when they are facing a team that strikes at as seldom as the Royals. There is more risk than potential reward here.
Pitcher Rating: 54.7
Johnny Cueto : FD: $10,500 — DK: $8,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 450.2 — SIERA: 3.43 — ERA: 2.82 — K%: 23.0% — BB%: 5.9% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.1 — SIERA: 4.55 — ERA: 6.14 — K%: 13.7% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 1.5
Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.375 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 8)
Pitches per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Speaking of subpar form, Cueto has a 4.55 SIERA (6.14 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 13.7% over the last month of play. He has not been the same pitcher since coming over from the Reds. The worst part is that his recent performance hasn’t been accompanied by a big price drop. He is still $10,500 on FanDuel and $8,900 on DraftKings. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup against the Astros, who are ranked fourth in team wOBA and 29th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. With seven other pitchers available, I will be looking elsewhere in both cash games and tournaments.
Pitcher Rating: 68.7
Batter Grind Down
Houston
The Astros have done what they do best in their first two playoff games this season. They have hit home runs and they have stolen bases. Even though Kaufmann Stadium is not a home run-friendly ballpark, Johnny Cueto has struggled to keep the ball in the park since coming to the American League. Colby Rasmus remains an elite play, as he has a .424 wOBA over the last month of play.
Elite Plays:
Colby Rasmus : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 613 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 102
Last 30 Days: PA: 85 — wOBA: 0.424 — ISO: 0.324 — wRC+: 173
Secondary Plays:
George Springer : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 526 — wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 119
Last 30 Days: PA: 123 — wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 135
Jose Altuve : FD: $3,400 — DK: $5,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1012 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.113 — wRC+: 109
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.291 — wRC+: 146
Luis Valbuena : FD: $3,000 — DK: $2,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 806 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 121
Last 30 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.457 — ISO: 0.289 — wRC+: 196
Kansas City
The Royals are small favorites in this game and looking at their team total, it is the second-highest on the board today. They draw a favorable matchup against Scott Kazmir, who has not been sharp in his recent outings. Kazmir hasn’t been particularly effective against left or right-handed hitters, so Royals’ bats from both sides of the plate are in play at home. Don’t give up on the 2014 playoff darlings just yet.
Elite Plays:
Lorenzo Cain : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 342 — wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 145
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.115 — wRC+: 92
Secondary Plays:
Kendrys Morales : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 408 — wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.124 — wRC+: 102
Last 30 Days: PA: 96 — wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.272 — wRC+: 159
Ben Zobrist : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 339 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.160 — wRC+: 154
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 80
Alex Gordon : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 334 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.179 — wRC+: 127
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.299 — ISO: 0.110 — wRC+: 86
Alcides Escobar : FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 347 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 97
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.240 — ISO: 0.073 — wRC+: 46
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 6:45 PM EST
| Chicago Cubs | St. Louis | ||||||||
 | Jon Lester |  | John Lackey | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL (-106) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.678 | 0.298 | 26.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.262 | 0.734 | 0.321 | 16.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.638 | 0.282 | 24.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.677 | 0.296 | 22.80% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jon Lester : FD: $10,700 — DK: $10,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 424.2 — SIERA: 3.15 — ERA: 2.88 — K%: 24.9% — BB%: 5.6% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 42.0 — SIERA: 2.97 — ERA: 2.36 — K%: 26.6% — BB%: 4.6% — HR/9: 0.4
“(player-popup)St. Louis”:/players/francis-st-louis-18881 Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.340 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 14)
Pitches per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 15)
Analysis: Lester ended the season on a good note, posting a 2.97 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.6% over the last month of play. Even though he is not pitching at home, he draws a favorable matchup against the Cardinals, who are ranked 27th in team wOBA and 28th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Lester does not do a good job of holding runners, but when he is striking hitters out left and right, it’s usually not a problem. He will likely get overlooked in this slate because he is pitching on the road, but I have him ranked as the second-best pitching option.
Pitcher Rating: 93.4
John Lackey : FD: $9,000 — DK: $9,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 412.0 — SIERA: 3.79 — ERA: 3.23 — K%: 19.6% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 35.1 — SIERA: 3.15 — ERA: 1.78 — K%: 25.2% — BB%: 6.3% — HR/9: 1.0
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 24.2% (Rank: 28)
Pitches per PA: 3.97 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Lackey has been dominant over the second half of the season. His SIERA has come down, while his strikeout rate has increased dramatically. He draws a favorable strikeout matchup against the Cubs, who have the highest strikeout rate of any team in baseball against right-handed pitching this season. The Cubs do have a lot of power in their lineup though, so Lackey has the same sort of boom or bust matchup as Johnny Cueto. Lackey’s price is more than reasonable though, and he has a nice track record at Busch Stadium. He is in play as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.
Pitcher Rating: 79.9
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs made quick work of Gerrit Cole and the Pirates in the Wildcard game. I quickly learned that I should NEVER sleep on Jake Arrieta. I already knew that of course, but I let his hefty price tag talk me off of him. Anyway, the Cubs draw a mediocre matchup against John Lackey, but he has allowed a .321 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Dexter Fowler remains an elite play, as he is cheap and will be batting leadoff for the Cubs.
Elite Plays:
Dexter Fowler : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 909 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 106
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 89
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Rizzo : FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 935 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.254 — wRC+: 147
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 110
Kyle Schwarber : FD: $3,400 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: C/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 205 — wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.287 — wRC+: 162
Last 30 Days: PA: 84 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 92
Tommy La Stella : FD: $2,200 — DK: $2,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 357 — wOBA: 0.284 — ISO: 0.069 — wRC+: 78
Last 30 Days: PA: 45 — wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.128 — wRC+: 133
St. Louis
The Cardinals draw a difficult matchup against Jon Lester, but there are two things working in their favor. They get to face Lester at home in front of their crowd and Lester does not hold runners well. The top plays here are the hitters that have the ability to steal bases, as the Cardinals will look to be very aggressive on the base paths against Lester and David Ross. Matt Holliday also deserves a look, as he has been here, done that. Experience never hurts in the postseason.
Elite Plays:
Matt Carpenter : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 428 — wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 111 — wOBA: 0.467 — ISO: 0.386 — wRC+: 204
Secondary Plays:
Matt Holliday : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 243 — wOBA: 0.408 — ISO: 0.227 — wRC+: 164
Last 30 Days: PA: 23 — wOBA: 0.233 — ISO: 0.136 — wRC+: 44
Jhonny Peralta : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,200
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 320 — wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.206 — wRC+: 121
Last 30 Days: PA: 88 — wOBA: 0.278 — ISO: 0.064 — wRC+: 74
NY Mets at LA Dodgers – 9:45 PM EST
| NY Mets | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
 | Jacob Degrom |  | Clayton Kershaw | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD (-199) | 5.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.655 | 0.289 | 25.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.196 | 0.523 | 0.231 | 35.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.198 | 0.532 | 0.235 | 27.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.193 | 0.520 | 0.232 | 32.30% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs L | Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jacob deGrom : FD: $10,600 — DK: $11,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 327.1 — SIERA: 3.10 — ERA: 2.64 — K%: 26.3% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.0 — SIERA: 2.68 — ERA: 4.50 — K%: 27.3% — BB%: 2.0% — HR/9: 0.4
Los Angeles Dodgers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 17)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 5)
Pitches per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 7)
Analysis: DeGrom will take the mound for the Mets in the series that I am looking forward to watching the most. Even though these games are going to be low scoring, by golly, they are going to be entertaining. DeGrom has been in good form over the last month of play, posting a 2.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.3%. While I do like the high upside/low ownership combination that he offers, I would not consider him in a cash game. He is a large underdog on the road and Clayton Kershaw is pitching opposite him.
Pitcher Rating: 86.9
Clayton Kershaw : FD: $12,700 — DK: $15,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 427.1 — SIERA: 2.19 — ERA: 1.98 — K%: 32.8% — BB%: 4.5% — HR/9: 0.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 44.0 — SIERA: 2.28 — ERA: 1.84 — K%: 35.4% — BB%: 5.5% — HR/9: 0.4
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 23)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 6)
Analysis: If you read or listen to any analysis of this game, you will almost certainly hear about Kershaw’s career 5.12 ERA in the postseason. “He can’t get it done in the postseason,” they say. While I certainly can’t argue the fact that his ERA is over 5.00, he has largely been undone by a few bad innings. He typically dominates in his usual Kershaw fashion and then he’ll give up a big inning, usually to the Cardinals. Buy into the narrative all you’d like, I will be using Kershaw as my main pitcher in this slate. He has been dominant over the last month of play and he has been dominant at home in his career. It only takes a few good starts to quiet the critics, so let’s get the first one out of the way tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 99.8
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
Since the start of the 2014 season, Clayton Kershaw has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .235 wOBA. The only pitcher to have splits that even resemble Kershaw’s is Jake Arrieta. Good company, I’d say. I want no part of this Mets’ offense in Dodger Stadium.
Elite Plays / Secondary:
NONE
LA Dodgers
The Dodgers may be large favorites here, but they only have the fifth-highest team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Jacob deGrom, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA over the last two seasons. The left-handed bats of Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, and Carl Crawford are worth a look, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Adrian Gonzalez : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 944 — wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.234 — wRC+: 142
Last 30 Days: PA: 98 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.108 — wRC+: 96
Andre Ethier : FD: $2,700 — DK: $2,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 722 — wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.176 — wRC+: 129
Last 30 Days: PA: 68 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.197 — wRC+: 133
Carl Crawford : FD: $2,200 — DK: $2,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 465 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 59 — wOBA: 0.300 — ISO: 0.127 — wRC+: 92