MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 20 - Page Three

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-06-20 15:00:09

Boston at Kansas City – 7:15 PM EST

Boston					Kansas City
			Rick Porcello					Edinson Volquez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KCR (-114)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.27	0.745	0.325	0.155	SP vs. Left	0.221	0.671	0.299	0.19
SP vs. Right	0.262	0.69	0.304	0.174	SP vs. Right	0.229	0.638	0.288	0.168
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello

Kansas City Royals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 16.0% (Rank: 1)

Although Porcello has some solid advanced stats (3.95 xFIP), he is just not a pitcher that I could recommend at this point in the season. He has allowed 24 earned runs over his last five starts combined and now has to face a Royals squad that continues to be patient at the plate as they have a ridiculously low strikeout rate of 16%. There are much better options tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7,400 FD, $6,600 DK

Edinson Volquez

Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 16.4% (Rank: 2)

Voltrain has been a good starter for the Royals this year. He has a SIERA of 4.17 on the year and an xFIP of 4.11. His 19% K rate is serviceable for DFS purposes, but he does have a tough matchup against the Red Sox who have the second lowest strikeout rate (16.4%). This game features a high total and I would only recommend Volquez for tournament play. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $8,400 FD, $7,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Boston

David Ortiz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.243 — OBP: 0.395

Analysis: The salary over at FD ($2,800) is very tough to ignore. Sure, he is not hitting for average this year, but he does have 29 runs batted in, has a wOBA of .388 against righties and has a hit in nine of his last ten games. I think he makes a solid cap saver tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Hanley Ramirez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.174 — OBP: 0.293

Pablo Sandoval
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.192 — OBP: 0.386

Kansas City

Eric Hosmer
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.191 — OBP: 0.382

Analysis: Another guy that is on a bit of a discount is Eric Hosmer. Over at FanDuel, he is sitting at a $3,000 price tag and he matches up well against Porcello who has allowed a wOBA of .339 to left-handed bats. Hosmer is coming off a game where he went yard and continues to hit .300 on the year.

Secondary Plays:

Alex Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.176 — OBP: 0.385

Mike Moustakas
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.399

Detroit at NY Yankees – 7:15 PM EST

Detroit					NY Yankees
			Alfredo Simon					Nathan Eovaldi
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (-117)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.248	0.711	0.312	0.159	SP vs. Left	0.318	0.826	0.361	0.16
SP vs. Right	0.224	0.642	0.285	0.165	SP vs. Right	0.26	0.687	0.303	0.168
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Alfredo Simon

New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 11)

Simon has pitched very well for the Tigers, who are getting a lot more from him than they expected. He has a 2.58 ERA on the year and a 7-3 record. His advanced stats show a bit of regression is due (4.06 xFIP) and an average 18.0% strikeout rate that does not add much to his value. The matchup is tough as well as is having to pitch in Yankee Stadium. This brings his rating down enough for me to avoid him tonight. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $7,800 FD, $6,800 DK

Nathan Eovaldi

Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 9)

Eovaldi’s transition to the AL has not gone as planned. He has a 5+ ERA (3.91 xFIP) and is coming off a 39 pitch, two out, eight earned run performance against the Marlins. He now has to take on a solid Tigers squad with a number of big bats. He is an easy avoid tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $6,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.429 — ISO: 0.245 — OBP: 0.433

Analysis: If you can fit Miggy in, he is always in play. His numbers are elite again this year as he is hitting .345, with 15 home runs and 51 RBIs. He has a solid matchup tonight against Eovaldi who has given up his share of home runs and I can see one leaving the park tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Victor Martinez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.171 — ISO: 0.011 — OBP: 0.243

Yoenis Cespedes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.188 — OBP: 0.352

NY Yankees

Brett Gardner
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.136 — OBP: 0.353

Analysis: Gardner is always one of my favorite cash game plays as he scores points in so many different ways. If you do not usually play him, now might be the time as he has six hits and two home runs in his last two games. He is not stealing as many bases recently, but as he throws a few of those in here and there, he can rack up the points quickly.

Secondary Plays:

Mark Teixeira
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.346 — OBP: 0.355

Brian McCann
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.233 — OBP: 0.349

San Francisco at LA Dodgers – 7:15 PM EST

San Francisco					LA Dodgers
			Tim Hudson					Carlos Frias
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD (-142)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.281	0.755	0.332	0.107	SP vs. Left	0.344	0.85	0.375	0.119
SP vs. Right	0.264	0.693	0.304	0.177	SP vs. Right	0.230	0.61	0.269	0.200
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs R		Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Tim Hudson

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.343 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 13)

Hudson is a decent real life pitcher, but his style at this point in his career does not translate well to daily fantasy purposes. He has a far below-average K rate of 11.9%, which really keeps his possible ceiling down. Combined this with the fact that he has to take on one of the best teams against right-handed pitching right now and you can safely avoid Hudson. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $5,900 DK

Carlos Frias

San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 3)

Frias has been a decent starter for the Dodgers. Yet, he does not offer a ton of upside for fantasy purposes. Frias’ 3.85 xFIP (4.14 ERA) shows some pretty good stuff so far in 2015 after nine starts, but the ceiling is very limited as he has only a 5.30 K/9. He has to take on a lefty-heavy Giants squad, which could be troublesome for Frias as he has allowed a wOBA of .391 to lefties this year. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $4,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Brandon Belt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.238 — OBP: 0.376

Analysis: I have enjoyed using Belt in these spots as he mashed average, right-handed pitching. He has a wOBA close to .400 against righties, which matches up well for tonight as Frias has allowed lefties a wOBA of .391 this year.

Secondary Plays:

Joe Panik
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.162 — OBP: 0.360

Brandon Crawford
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.172 — OBP: 0.322

Buster Posey
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.165 — OBP: 0.382

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.241 — OBP: 0.391

Analysis: After being underpriced over at FD yesterday, they dropped his price down another $100 to $3,000 for tonight’s game. You are getting a guy that has had a solid year for a big discount over there and makes for a great cash game play against Hudson.

Secondary Plays:

Joc Pederson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.297 — OBP: 0.391

Yasiel Puig
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.176 — OBP: 0.377

Houston at Seattle – 10:10 PM EST

Houston					Seattle
			Dallas Keuchel					Taijuan Walker
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU (-116)					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.205	0.516	0.233	0.258	SP vs. Left	0.264	0.739	0.327	0.215
SP vs. Right	0.238	0.628	0.281	0.165	SP vs. Right	0.239	0.695	0.309	0.200
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Dallas Keuchel

Seattle Mariners vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 13)

Keuchel has had some elite stuff so far this year. He holds a sub 3.00 ERA as well as xFIP, a respectable 19.5% strikeout rate and has stayed away from any big blowups by only allowing four home runs in his 14 starts. He now gets a solid matchup against the Mariners who are a middle of the road team against lefties so far this year. Keuchel makes a great option on a night that has some solid aces taking the mound. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9,800 FD, $9,900 DK

Taijuan Walker

Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 25.5% (Rank: 30)

Walker has seen some major improvements over the last few starts. He has dropped his ERA down over two runs since the end of May and has allowed only five earned runs, while striking out 27 batters in his last 29 innings. With that said, prior to this run, he was not a viable fantasy starter and should only be used as a contrarian, cheap, GPP play. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $7,800 FD, $7,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Houston

George Springer
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.183 — OBP: 0.362

Analysis: Springer is making it a bit difficult not to jump on the train as he has crushed the ball recently. He is currently riding a 12-game hit streak and during that span has 23 hits, four doubles and three home runs. Sometimes you need to ride the hot hand and Springer has it.

Secondary Plays:

Luis Valbuena
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.265 — OBP: 0.289

Preston Tucker
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: 0.286 — OBP: 0.321

Carlos Correa
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.182 — OBP: 0.348

Seattle

None

Secondary Plays:

None

San Diego at Arizona – 10:10 PM EST

San Diego					Arizona
			Tyson Ross					Robbie Ray
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ARI (-105)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.699	0.314	0.233	SP vs. Left	0.298	0.801	0.346	0.153
SP vs. Right	0.231	0.625	0.283	0.252	SP vs. Right	0.277	0.814	0.358	0.151
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SD vs L		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyson Ross

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 16)

Ross has yet to put together a full, complete start this season. He has allowed two to four runs in each of his 14 starts this season. Ross always has big upside as he is a high strikeout pitcher (24.7%), but today he may be looked at as a tournament play only due to the fact that he has to pitch in hitter friendly Chase Field tonight. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8,800 FD, $8,600 DK

Robbie Ray

San Diego Padres vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 23.7% (Rank: 25)

Ray has now made four starts for the Diamondbacks this year and he has been solid so far. He has a 1.09 ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP. Looking at his advanced stats show an xFIP of 4.37 and a below average 5.84 K/9. This shows some regression as well as a limited upside for Ray today even in a decent matchup against the Padres. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $5,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Derek Norris
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.136 — OBP: 0.396

Analysis: Norris makes for a great option at the catcher position tonight as he should be hitting in the two hole and has had a great year against lefties. He has a .382 wOBA on the year and gets to face off against a lefty who has pitched well this year, but had a .448 wOBA against righties in limited 2014 experience.

Secondary Plays:

Yonder Alonso
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.413 — ISO: 0.103 — OBP: 0.457

Justin Upton
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.105 — OBP: 0.341

Arizona

None

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.472 — ISO: 0.307 — OBP: 0.484

David Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.197 — OBP: 0.340

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