MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 5th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-09-07 00:08:18

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.

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Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM EST

Tampa Bay					NY Yankees
			Matt Moore					Nathan Eovaldi
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (-174)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.298	0.888	0.378	13.2%	SP vs. Left	0.301	0.775	0.340	16.30%
SP vs. Right	0.352	0.954	0.412	13.0%	SP vs. Right	0.258	0.673	0.297	17.80%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TB vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Moore

New York Yankees vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.339 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 13)

Moore had a tough go at it in his return earlier this year as he put up a 5.38 SIERA to go along with an extremely low strikeout rate (12.9%). His command was a major issue during his earlier run in the majors this year (9.9 BB%) and has a tough matchup today against the Yankees who are ranked third against left-handed pitching. Avoid him today. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6,100 FD, $4,200 DK

Nathan Eovaldi

Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 24)

Eovaldi is a high-risk, high-reward pitcher. He has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts, yet he has posted a strikeout rate of 21.3% since the month of August began. He has a decent matchup against the Rays today, but the risk factor is still there making him a tournament play only. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8,900 FD, $7,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays are always a decent source of value as they have a few minimum priced lefties that hit high in the order against right-handed pitching. Eovaldi has allowed a wOBA of .346 to lefties making Jaso, Sizemore, and Nava solid punt plays.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

John Jaso
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.158

Grady Sizemore
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.285 — ISO: 0.181

Daniel Nava
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.097

NY Yankees

The Yankees get a decent matchup today against Moore who has allowed a wOBA of .362+ from both sides of the plate. Young and Rodriguez are clear elite plays in this game while Ellsbury and Gardner are still cheap at some sites. Check the news on Ellsbury as he was pulled yesterday.

Elite Plays:

Alex Rodriguez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.442 — ISO: 0.309

Chris Young
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.419 — ISO: 0.272

Secondary Plays:

Brett Gardner
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.135

Jacoby Ellsbury
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.190

Baltimore at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST

Baltimore					Toronto
			Mike Wright					David Price
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR (0)					0.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.328	0.930	0.400	10.3%	SP vs. Left	0.261	0.663	0.292	23.00%
SP vs. Right	0.190	0.581	0.253	18.2%	SP vs. Right	0.227	0.635	0.278	26.90%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs L		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Wright

Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.333 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 7)

Mike Wright is pitching today and it has already been said he would be capped at around 60 pitches. He has the toughest matchup on the board and should be avoided in all formats. Rating = 1

Salaries: $6,400 FD, $4,000 DK

David Price

Baltimore Orioles vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 25)

Price’s start has been moved up a day and he has been solid since joining this Blue Jays squad. In the month he has been there, Price has a 2.28 ERA (2.80 SIERA) to go along with an elite 29.2% strikeout rate. He has a high upside matchup against the Orioles who strikeout at a high rate as well. He is battling Arrieta for the top spot on the early slate. Rating = 9

Salaries: $12,200 FD, $11,900 DK

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles have to face an elite pitcher today in Price, but get to do so in a hitter friendly park. With that said, they are not worth paying the price tag for this afternoon with other solid offenses going in much better spots.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

Toronto

This Toronto team is always in play at Rogers Centre when they are facing a non-elite pitcher. Today they have a solid matchup against Wright and what should be a number of relievers throughout the game.

Elite Plays:

Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.260

Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.288

Jose Bautista
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: 0.286

Secondary Plays:

Troy Tulowitzki (with Blue Jays)
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305— ISO: 0.140

Ben Revere
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.039

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM EST

Milwaukee					Cincinnati
			Matt Garza					John Lamb
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CIN (0)					0.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.263	0.753	0.331	16.3%	SP vs. Left	0.286	1.018	0.429	31.30%
SP vs. Right	0.253	0.719	0.314	18.1%	SP vs. Right	0.303	0.853	0.365	30.00%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs L		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Garza

Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 11)

The last time these two teams met with Garza on the mound, he allowed seven earned runs to the Reds. He will look to bounce back from that, but it will be tough for the struggling Brewer who has allowed 23 home runs on the season. This game features a total of nine runs and Garza and the Brewers are underdogs. There is no upside to Garza today. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,000 FD, $7,000 DK

John Lamb

Milwaukee Brewers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.286 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 16)

Lamb has been solid for the Reds in his first four starts. He has 13 earned runs during that span, but has struck out batters at an elite 30.2% rate. He gets a matchup today against the Brewers who he fared well against in his last start and are the 29th ranked team in terms of wOBA against left-handed pitching. View Lamb as a cheap, risk/reward play this afternoon and a great SP2 for tournaments. Rating = 7

Salaries: $5,400 FD, $7,900 DK

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers will look to fare better today against Lamb then they did in their first start against him. The Brewers do feature a 4.41 team total this afternoon and could be a contrarian stack with a lot of people using Lamb as a possible SP2 on the slate.

Elite Plays:

Ryan Braun
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.429 — ISO: 0.278

Secondary Plays:

Jean Segura
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.101

Khris Davis
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.255 — ISO: 0.176

Cincinnati

The majority of the season, Garza has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate. He has really struggled against lefties (.376 wOBA), putting Joey Votto and Jay Bruce into play as well as Frazier as he is very cheap at FD.

Elite Plays:

Joey Votto
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.438— ISO: 0.263

Todd Frazier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.208

Jay Bruce
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.225

Secondary Plays:

Brandon Phillips

Arizona at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM EST

Arizona					Chicago Cubs
			Robbie Ray					Jake Arrieta
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (0)					0.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.277	0.777	0.335	20.6%	SP vs. Left	0.176	0.508	0.232	29.50%
SP vs. Right	0.273	0.814	0.353	19.0%	SP vs. Right	0.215	0.569	0.251	24.80%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Robbie Ray

Chicago Cubs vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 25.9% (Rank: 30)

Ray comes into this matchup with the Cubs struggling a bit over the last month. During this time, Ray has posted a 6.00 ERA (4.54 SIERA), but has struck batters out at a 20.6% clip. Regardless, this Cubs team is hot and he is pitching against Arrieta. Avoid him today. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6,400 FD, $6,300 DK

Jake Arrieta

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 318)
Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 20)

Arrieta is arguably the best pitcher going in baseball recently. Over the last six starts, he has posted a 0.43 ERA (2.62 SIERA) along with an elite strikeout rate of 27%. He gets a decent matchup with the Diamondbacks who are a lot less potent away from Chase Field and is one of the biggest favorites on the slate. He is right there with Price for top option on the day slate. Rating = 9

Salaries: $11,700 FD, $13,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Arrieta has been way too good recently to give any of the Diamondbacks offense a go here as he is one of the top options on the entire day.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

Chicago Cubs

The wind is blowing out of Wrigley at about 10 mph, which puts this Cubs offense into contention as one of the top in the early slate. Today’s matchup against Ray is solid as he has allowed a .316+ wOBA against hitters from both sides of the plate and walks a ton of batters (3.26 BB/9).

Elite Plays:

Kris Bryant
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.222

Dexter Fowler
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.132

Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.194

Secondary Plays:

Austin Jackson

Pittsburgh at St. Louis – 4:05 PM EST

Pittsburgh					St. Louis
			Charlie Morton					Jaime Garcia
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-148)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.258	0.738	0.327	18.8%	SP vs. Left	0.282	0.726	0.323	23.50%
SP vs. Right	0.240	0.666	0.297	18.0%	SP vs. Right	0.197	0.547	0.244	18.00%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Charlie Morton

St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 10)

Morton is a serviceable real life starter as he has posted close to a career best 3.72 SIERA on the season. His problem, as it has always been, is his below average strikeout rate of just 17.5%. This limits his upside against the Cardinals who strikeout at a low 19.4% rate. Morton is still cheap, making him a decent SP2 in order to fit some bigger bats in your lineup. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $7,200 DK

Jaime Garcia

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 23)

Garcia has really been solid this year after starting the season on the DL. In 14 starts, Garcia has a 3.30 SIERA, yet a below average 18% strikeout rate. He has yet to face this Pirates squad this season, but is getting them at the top of their offensive game as they have been a top ten offense over the last month in terms of team wOBA (.339). Garcia is a decent option today, but paying up for Arrieta or Price is a much safer and higher upside option. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9,000 FD, $9,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Garcia has been solid this year allowed a wOBA under .287 from both sides of the plate after close to 100 innings pitched. The Pirates have some solid righties, but are a bit expensive for the matchup.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Andrew McCutchen
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.435 — ISO: 0.219

Jung-ho Kang
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331— ISO: 0.154

Josh Harrison
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.085

St. Louis

Morton has been crushed by lefty bats this year. He has allowed a wOBA of .376 to them on the season, which puts Mat Carpenter and Jason Heyward into the elite play category.

Elite Plays:

Matt Carpenter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.219

Jason Heyward
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.172

Secondary Plays:

Kolten Wong
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.165

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