MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 30th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Detroit at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST
| Detroit | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Alfredo Simon |  | Mark Buehrle | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-233) | 9.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.794 | 0.344 | 13.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.261 | 0.728 | 0.318 | 13.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.651 | 0.290 | 16.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.279 | 0.740 | 0.321 | 12.80% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Alfredo Simon – Simon had one great start out of nowhere two weeks ago with a complete game one-hitter against the Rangers. Outside of that start he has been absolutely brutal, allowing four or more runs in 10 if his last 12 starts, including eight runs in his last start. Toronto is one of the highest projected scoring teams, leaving Simon at the bottom of the barrel for pitching today. Pitcher Rating – 2
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 141 – SIERA: 4.75 – ERA: 4.89 – K%: 15.0% – BB%: 8.6% – HR/9: 0.95
Salaries: $7,500 FD, $5,500 DK
Mark Buehrle – Buehrle is the king of the “better in real life than in fantasy” club, as he somehow continues to be a useful major league pitcher for Toronto. But for our purposes, a pitcher with an 11.6% strikeout rate in a hitters park just cannot be considered in any format. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 165 – SIERA: 4.51 – ERA: 3.60 – K%: 11.6% – BB%: 3.7% – HR/9: 1.04
Salaries: $8,000 FD, $6,400 DK
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Mark Buehrle is an annoying pitcher to play against, as his underwhelming stuff seems like an easy target, but it rarely works out that way. The big right-handed bats certainly have some upside in a great hitters park, but don’t get carried away with them.
Elite Plays
Miguel Cabrera – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .479 – OBP: .506 – ISO: .279 – wRC+:213
J.D. Martinez – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .383 – OBP: .383 – ISO: .257 – wRC+:145
Secondary Plays:
Ian Kinsler – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .364 – OBP: .362 – ISO: .161 – wRC+:132
Nick Castellanos – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .424 – OBP: .411 – ISO: .229 – wRC+:174
Victor Martinez – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .377 – OBP: .4100 – ISO: .122 – wRC+:141
Toronto
While we typically look to play the Blue Jays against left-handed pitching, Alfredo Simon is an easy pitcher to pick on. He is much better against right-handed batters, but it’s difficult to imagine him shutting down this powerful offense. You’ll have to pick your spots with these high priced batters; the red-hot Edwin Encarnacion is the top play if you want to pay for one of the big boys.
Elite Plays
Edwin Encarnacion – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .381 – OBP: .352 – ISO: .287 – wRC+:144
Jose Bautista – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .384 – OBP: .364 – ISO: .297 – wRC+:146
Josh Donaldson –2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .382 – OBP: .356 – ISO: .253 – wRC+:145
Secondary Plays:
Troy Tulowitzki –2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .324 – OBP: .327 – ISO: .154 – wRC+:92
Chris Colabello – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .382 – OBP: .370 – ISO: .184 – wRC+:144
Ben Revere – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .331 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .078 – wRC+:109
Kansas City at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM EST
| Kansas City | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | Danny Duffy |  | Nate Karns | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-117) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.184 | 0.492 | 0.227 | 17.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.673 | 0.302 | 26.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.718 | 0.318 | 16.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.217 | 0.714 | 0.309 | 19.70% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Danny Duffy – Early in his career, Duffy was viewed as a high upside arm with big strikeout potential. Any way you look at it, he has just not turned out that way. He has an extremely low 14% strikeout rate a 5.02 SIERA that shows significant downside. In his last 10 starts totaling 59 innings, he has just 26 strikeouts. There is no upside here and he can safely be avoided against a Tampa team that hits better against left-handed pitching. Pitcher Rating – 3.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 109 – SIERA: 5.02 – ERA: 4.13 – K%: 14.0% – BB%: 8.9% – HR/9: 0.83
Salaries: $6,600 FD, $5,700 DK
Nate Karns – Karns had his worst start of the season in his last outing against the Twins, only making it through three innings with three strikeouts and four walks. Prior to that start, he had been consistently good at home, although not being asked to pitch deep into games. I don’t want to draw any conclusions from one bad start, but I will say that I am worried about him wearing down as we get later in the season. Coupled with the fact that he’s facing a very pesky Kansas City offense, he is off my radar for today. Pitcher Rating – 4.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 139 – SIERA: 3.90 – ERA: 3.69 – K%: 23.2% – BB%: 9.2% – HR/9: 1.17
Salaries: $8,200 FD, $7,700 DK
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Nate Karns is a bit of a reverse splits pitcher, but is fairly tough on both right and left-handed batters, having allowed a .309 wOBA to lefties and a .303 wOBA to righties. His numbers against right-handed bats are helped by a low .226 BABIP, and a 37.7% hard contact rate suggests some regression there. It’s hard to know which individual bats to target from this lineup, but they are likely to put up some runs today.
Elite Plays
Eric Hosmer – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .397 – OBP: .401 – ISO: .201 – wRC+:156
Lorenzo Cain – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .344 – OBP: .349 – ISO: .150 – wRC+:119
Secondary Plays:
Ben Zobrist – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .348 – OBP: .353 – ISO: .183 – wRC+:125
Kendrys Morales – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .376 – OBP: .365 – ISO: .225 – wRC+:141
Salvador Perez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .327 – OBP: .298 – ISO: .194 – wRC+:107
Tampa Bay
Tampa matches up well against left-handed pitching, putting much of their lineup in play today. Danny Duffy is allowing a .340 wOBA to righties with a 13.6% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate.
Elite Plays:
Evan Longoria – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .403 – OBP: .423 – ISO: .190 – wRC+: 165
Logan Forsythe – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .406 – OBP: .367 – ISO: .317 – wRC+: 167
Secondary Plays:
Brandon Guyer – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .353 – OBP: .382 – ISO: .147 – wRC+: 130
Asdrubal Cabrera – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .319 – OBP: .307 – ISO: .156 – wRC+: 106
LA Angels at Cleveland – 1:10 PM EST
| LA Angels | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Jered Weaver |  | Josh Tomlin | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-140) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.739 | 0.325 | 17.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.227 | 0.674 | 0.288 | 21.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.665 | 0.292 | 15.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.305 | 0.863 | 0.374 | 21.60% |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | ANA vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jered Weaver – Weaver continues to lose ground with his strikeout rate, and has transformed into a low walk, high contact fly ball pitcher. Every once in a while, that kind of pitching can work, but it leaves more downside than upside for DFS purposes. The left-handed heavy Cleveland lineup does not line up well for him, and I’m not considering him as an option today. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 119 – SIERA: 4.68 – ERA: 4.59 – K%: 13.0% – BB%: 3.6% – HR/9: 1.35
Salaries: $7,400 FD, $6,000 DK
Josh Tomlin – Tomlin has shown excellent command in his three starts this season, but has also allowed six home runs in his 19 innings. That is similar to what he showed earlier in his career. His main skill is a low walk rate, but he does not have elite stuff, and therefore can get hit hard at times. He has a decent chance for a win and maybe a quality start, but I don’t think there’s as much upside as his 25% strikeout rate suggests. His 8.2% swinging strike rate implies he’ll regress down closer to his career average 15.5% K rate. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 19 – SIERA: 3.21 – ERA: 3.26 – K%: 25.0% – BB%: 2.8% – HR/9: 2.79
Salaries: $5,900 FD, $5,600 DK
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
The Angels big bats are worth a look in tournaments with “(player-popup)Josh Tomlin”:/players/josh-tomlin-11005’s home run struggles, but I wouldn’t go overboard as his command will help him limit big innings.
Elite Plays
Mike Trout – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .403 – OBP: .388 – ISO: .280 – wRC+:166
Albert Pujols – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .356 – OBP: .321 – ISO: .258 – wRC+:133
Kole Calhoun –2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .332 – OBP: .320 – ISO: .181 – wRC+:117
Secondary Plays:
David Murphy – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .333 – OBP: .332 – ISO: .147 – wRC+:114
Cleveland
Cleveland is a team to target today as their left-handed bats will look to take advantage of Jered Weaver’s declining strikeout rate and fly ball tendencies.
Elite Plays
Jason Kipnis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .411 – OBP: .442 – ISO: .161 – wRC+:168
Michael Brantley – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .390 – OBP: .414 – ISO: .169 – wRC+:153
Carlos Santana – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .339 – OBP: .347 – ISO: .216 – wRC+:118
Secondary Plays:
Francisco Lindor –2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .337 – ISO: .152 – wRC+:120
Boston at NY Mets – 1:10 PM EST
| Boston | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Wade Miley |  | Noah Syndergaard | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-175) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.677 | 0.301 | 18.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.245 | 0.681 | 0.295 | 20.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.271 | 0.766 | 0.336 | 19.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.663 | 0.288 | 31.50% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Wade Miley – Miley continues to baffle me, as he has started to look like he’s turning a corner several times, but then goes right back to his very hittable ways. Given how well the Mets have been hitting recently, I just can’t see using Miley in any format today. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 153 – SIERA: 4.23 – ERA: 4.51 – K%: 17.4% – BB%: 8.0% – HR/9: 0.82
Salaries: $7,200 FD, $7,100 DK
Noah Syndergaard – Syndergaard has given up quite a few runs recently, but it more fluke than anything. He still pitching at a high level with a 28.5% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate over the past month. He has a high .319 BABIP and 25% HR/FB rate in August, that will both come back down, bringing his ERA with it. The Red Sox are pretty banged up right now and I see Syndergaard as a strong play in all formats, and in the discussion for top pitcher of the day. Pitcher Rating – 9
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 115 – SIERA: 3.12 – ERA: 3.19 – K%: 26.6% – BB%: 5.9% – HR/9: 1.09
Salaries: $10,900 FD, $10,600 DK
Batter Grind Down
Boston
If David Ortiz is back in the lineup today, his numbers against right-handed pitching are strong enough to put him in consideration, but outside of him, there are too many other good spots today to worry about playing against Syndergaard.
Secondary Plays:
David Ortiz – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .405 – OBP: .402 – ISO: .290 – wRC+:158
NY Mets
Wade Miley is allowing a .342 wOBA to right-handed batters, though that comes with a solid 50% ground ball rate. The Mets have been hot at the plate over the past few weeks, but they don’t have a lot of players that stand out against left-handed pitching. Catcher Travis d’Arnaud is my top play from this lineup, given his position, while everyone else is a secondary play.
Elite Plays
Travis d’Arnaud – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .502 – OBP: .467 – ISO: .346 – wRC+:231
Secondary Plays:
Yoenis Cespedes – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .274 – OBP: .262 – ISO: .186 – wRC+:72
Juan Lagares – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .353 – OBP: .349 – ISO: .168 – wRC+:129
Michael Cuddyer – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .309 – OBP: .348 – ISO: .074 – wRC+:99
San Diego at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM EST
| San Diego | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | James Shields |  | Alec Asher | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SDP (-149) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.768 | 0.335 | 19.7% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.698 | 0.305 | 23.9% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | SD vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
James Shields – Shields has been inconsistent, but when he’s good, he can be very good. While his strikeout rate is down a little from his early season dominance, he still has a strong 10.8% swinging strike rate over the past month with three games of seven or more K’s. The Phillies have been striking out at a much higher clip, while also scoring more runs than they did earlier in the year. Shields is an excellent tournament play, but not safe for cash games. Pitcher Rating – 8
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 164 – SIERA: 3.55 – ERA: 3.89 – K%: 25.2% – BB%: 8.6% – HR/9: 1.37
Salaries: $8,500 FD, $8,500 DK
Alec Asher – Asher will be called up from AAA to make his first career major league start. He is not someone that I am very familiar with, but his minor league numbers do not inspire a lot of confidence. If he is available at near minimum salary, you could take a long shot GPP flyer and hope that he is able to come out of the gates strong against the Padres, but I certainly won’t be investing until we get a look at him at the major league level. Pitcher Rating – 3.5
Salaries: $3,000 FD, $4,100 DK
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
It is reasonable to take a shot on some Padres bats against the rookie today and hope that struggles to adjust to major league hitting and leads to seeing the weaker pieces of the Phillies bullpen.
Elite Plays
Justin Upton – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .368 – OBP: .362 – ISO: .227 – wRC+:139
Secondary Plays:
Matt Kemp –2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .312 – OBP: .309 – ISO: .151 – wRC+:101
Yonder Alonso – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .358 – ISO: .107 – wRC+:11
Yangervis Solarte – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .324 – OBP: .152 – ISO: .152 – wRC+:109
Philadelphia
James Shields can be very good, but also allows a lot of hard contact and home runs to left-handed batters when he’s not on his game. The Phillies lefties can be considered in tournaments today.
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Howard –2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .357 – OBP: .321 – ISO: .245 – wRC+:127
Andres Blanco – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .348 – OBP: .330 – ISO: .222 – wRC+:121
Odubel Herrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .326 – ISO: .132 – wRC+:106
Cody Asche – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .302 – OBP: .293 – ISO: .150 – wRC+:89