MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 26 - Page Two

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-07-26 13:48:54

NY Yankees at Minnesota – 2:10 PM EST

NY Yankees					Minnesota
			Nathan Eovaldi					Kyle Gibson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (-113)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.307	0.795	0.348	0.161	SP vs. Left	0.251	0.682	0.304	0.119
SP vs. Right	0.262	0.678	0.299	0.171	SP vs. Right	0.254	0.683	0.302	0.189
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi has been consistently average for most of the season. He has long been considered an upside arm with his big fastball, but the number show an innings eater who is tough to play on or against. He is getting more ground balls this season, at a 51% clip, which makes his 16.5% strikeout rate a little more workable. He hasn’t allowed a home run in his last six starts, and only has two disaster starts all season. For DFS purposes, he has only struck out more than six batters in one game all year, leaving him with very little upside. Pitcher Rating = 5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 103 – SIERA: 3.91 – ERA: 4.43 – K%: 16.5% – BB%: 6.4% – HR/9: 0.69

Salaries: $7,000 FD, $5,700 DK

Kyle Gibson – Gibson was in the midst of a great streak prior to his last start in Anaheim, where he allowed six runs in five innings. Even in that rough start, however, he had a 6:1 K:BB ratio and didn’t give up any extra base hits. He has brought his strikeout rate up over 23% over the last two months, and at that rate, with his 55% ground ball rate, he is going to be effective more often than not. Though he’s a quality pitcher, you can’t use him today against this powerful left-handed heavy Yankees lineup. Pitcher Rating = 5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 118 – SIERA: 3.85 – ERA: 3.19 – K%: 17.1% – BB%: 7.5% – HR/9: 0.83

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $7,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – The lefties at the top of the Yankees lineup are the best way to attack Kyle Gibson. Ellsbury’s speed and strong on-base skills will make it tough for Gibson today.

2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .357 – OBP: .393 – ISO: .086 – wRC+: 127

Brett Gardner – Similar to Ellsbury, Gardner’s skills set should play well against Gibson as they will look to wear him down and get into the Twins bullpen.

2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .368 – OBP: .377 – ISO: .168 – wRC+: 135

Secondary Plays:

Brian McCann – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .331 – ISO: .213 – wRC+: 118

Mark Teixeira – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .402 – OBP: .352 – ISO: .333 – wRC+: 159

Minnesota

Twins batters are better individual plays against left-handed pitching, but Brian Dozier is a top play with his current form.

Brian Dozier – Dozier just keeps hitting. He needs to be considered a top second base play nearly every day. He is tied with Mike Trout for the league lead in runs scored.

2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .350 – OBP: .312 – ISO: .259 – wRC+: 125

Secondary Plays:

None.

Houston at Kansas City – 2:10 PM EST

Houston					Kansas City
			Dallas Keuchel					Yordano Ventura
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU (-111)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.197	0.505	0.227	0.259	SP vs. Left	0.242	0.69	0.306	0.191
SP vs. Right	0.24	0.635	0.283	0.182	SP vs. Right	0.251	0.697	0.311	0.219
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Dallas Keuchel – – At his best, Keuchel is as good as nearly any pitcher in the league, and at his worst, he is still very good. He faced this tough Royals team a month ago and shut them out over eight innings with seven strikeouts. He has 44 strikeouts to just four walks over his past five starts and a 2.61 SIERA for the year. His extreme 64% ground ball rate limits any downside. The only mark against him today is that Kansas City is the toughest team in the league to strike out. I would still put him alongside Wacha and Cole as a very strong play today. Pitcher Rating = 8

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 144 – SIERA: 2.61 – ERA: 2.12 – K%: 22.8% – BB%: 6.1% – HR/9: 0.44

Salaries: $10,900 FD, $11,300 DK

Yordano Ventura – Ventura was saved from getting stuck in the minors by an injury to Jason Vargas. His rough season continued in his last start, allowing six runs in four innings to the Pirates. While he has some very longshot tournament upside against a strikeout-prone Astros team, he is a very difficult pitcher to trust right now. Pitcher Rating = 4.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 76 – SIERA: 3.71 – ERA: 5.19 – K%: 20.2% – BB%: 7.8% – HR/9: 0.83

Salaries: $8,200 FD, $5,800 DK

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Preston Tucker – Tucker needs to be considered an elite play with his current form and overall numbers against right-handed pitching in his rookie year. He has four home runs in his last five games and a HR every 15.7 for the season against righties.

2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .404 – OBP: .361 – ISO: .285 – wRC+: 164

Secondary Plays:

Jose Altuve – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .309 – OBP: .315 – ISO: .115 – wRC+: 97

Carlos Correa – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .321 – ISO: .196 – wRC+: 121

Evan Gattis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .330 – OBP: .286 – ISO: .224 – wRC+: 112

Colby Rasmus – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .332 – OBP: .286 – ISO: .250 – wRC+: 113

Kansas City

Though the Royals will find a way to get a few hits here and there, Keuchel is not a good pitcher to play against.

Secondary Plays:

None.

Atlanta at St. Louis – 2:15 PM EST

Atlanta					St. Louis
			Matt Wisler					Michael Wacha
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-215)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.212	0.587	0.265	0.2
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.245	0.672	0.296	0.214
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Wisler – Wisler has had some nice outings in his rookie season, but I’m not really buying in at this point. While he is not walking a lot of guys, his 15.5% strikeout rate leaves a lot to be desired. He comes in with a 4.52 SIERA and some very ugly numbers against left-handed batters. Pitcher Rating = 4

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 35 – SIERA: 4.52 – ERA: 3.60 – K%: 15.5% – BB%: 6.1% – HR/9: 1.03

Salaries: $6,100 FD, $7,200 DK

Michael Wacha – We have seen Wacha improve his strikeout rate as the season wears on, making him more likeable for DFS. There is some concern after he has given up five runs in back-to-back starts, but I don’t see anything to suggest that will continue. The Braves are a good team to turn things around against. His overall numbers don’t match that of Zack Greinke or Jacob deGrom, but the Cardinals are a very big favorite today, boosting Wacha’s value. He is a very strong investment in both cash games and tournaments. Pitcher Rating = 8.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 112 – SIERA: 3.55 – ERA: 3.20 – K%: 20.4% – BB%: 5.6% – HR/9: 0.72

Salaries: $8,500 FD, $9,700 DK

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

There is no reason to play any Atlanta batters today against Wacha.

Secondary Plays:

None.

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter – His excellent plate discipline and on base skills against righties makes him a great cash game play.

2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .373 – OBP: .394 – ISO: .184 – wRC+: 140

Kolten Wong – Wong is in a good run scoring spot at the top of the Cardinals order facing Wisler with his low strikeout and high walk rate to left-handed batters.

2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .354 – OBP: .350 – ISO: .184 – wRC+: 128

Secondary Plays:

Jason Heyward – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .316 – ISO: .162 – wRC+: 108

Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM EST

Philadelphia					Chicago Cubs
			Aaron Nola					Jason Hammel
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.222	0.555	0.239	0	SP vs. Left	0.232	0.674	0.296	0.204
SP vs. Right	0.214	0.696	0.303	0.4	SP vs. Right	0.216	0.638	0.279	0.256
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits			CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Nola – Nola is a top prospect in the Phillies system as the seventh overall pick in last year’s MLB draft. He looked solid in his first start against Tampa last week with one run allowed in six innings with six strikeouts and one walk. Rookie pitchers are tough to project, but there is certainly some upside here today against a strikeout-prone Cubs team. Pitcher Rating = 6

Salaries: $4,800 FD, $5,600 DK

Jason Hammel – Hammel doesn’t get talked about as an ace level pitcher, but that’s what he is. He hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any game all season and is a strong play today as the second highest favorite on the board in a home game with the wind blowing in. The Phillies don’t strike out a ton against right-handed pitching, so he may not have the huge tournament upside of some other pitchers, but he looks very safe. Pitcher Rating = 8.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 108 – SIERA: 3.11 – ERA: 2.82 – K%: 25.2% – BB%: 4.9% – HR/9: 0.91

Salaries: $8,500 FD, $8,700 DK

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

There are no Phillies batters worth targeting against Hammel.

Secondary Plays:

None.

Chicago Cubs

I’m not going to target any Cubs players in this game with the wind blowing in and a high upside young arm, though the Cubs’ big bats are always tournament options.

Secondary Plays:

Anthony Rizzo – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .382 – OBP: .376 – ISO: .251 – wRC+: 143

Kris Bryant – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .351 – OBP: .363 – ISO: .178 – wRC+: 122

Texas at LA Angels – 3:35 PM EST

Texas					LA Angels
			Nick Martinez					Andrew Heaney
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA (-195)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.255	0.765	0.337	0.129	SP vs. Left	0.225	0.578	0.255	0.241
SP vs. Right	0.285	0.822	0.357	0.129	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.72	0.315	0.158
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Martinez – Martinez had a magical start to the 2015 season where he outperformed every underlying metric for two months with all the luck falling his way. Regression has hit him hard the past couple months, and should continue as his ERA is still nearly a full run under his 4.80 SIERA. He has bad peripherals against both right and left-handed batters with low strikeout numbers across the board. He is in the mix for most attackable pitcher outside of Coors Field today. Pitcher Rating = 2.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 101 – SIERA: 4.80 – ERA: 3.92 – K%: 13.2% – BB%: 8.1% – HR/9: 0.98

Andrew Heaney – Heaney has been a popular option for pitching savings with five great starts for the Angels. He has been a top prospect so it’s not surprising to see him pitching well, but keep your expectations in check as he is being aided by a .223 BABIP and 8.1% HR/FB rate. He’s in a good spot to pick up a win at home against Nick Martinez, and he makes for a decent second starter on multi-pitcher sites, so long as you aren’t counting on ace quality stats. Pitcher Rating = 7

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 34 – SIERA: 3.40 – ERA: 1.57 – K%: 21.1% – BB%: 3.1% – HR/9: 0.79

Salaries: $7,000 FD, $8,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Texas batters are not core plays today, though I do expect a few runs against Heaney.

Secondary Plays:

Adrian Beltre -2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .311 – OBP: .313 – ISO: .157 – wRC+: 92

Prince Fielder – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .364 – OBP: .358 – ISO: .197 – wRC+: 129

LA Angels

Mike Trout – Coors Field, Goldschmidt, Trout. You can’t go wrong with any of these elite plays, Trout is as strong a play as you will find.

2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .418 – OBP: .397 – ISO: .295 – wRC+: 179

Albert Pujols – Pujols power resurgence is just adding to his Hall of Fame resume. He has significant reverse splits this year, he is absolutely crushing right-handed pitching.

2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .388 – OBP: .341 – ISO: .296 – wRC+: 157

Kole Calhoun – Calhoun has come to life with a .417 wOBA in July. He benefits from hitting in front of Trout and Pujols and should continue to roll today.

2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .327 – OBP: .323 – ISO: .154 – wRC+: 115

Secondary Plays:

Erick Aybar – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .293 – OBP: .320 – ISO: .071 – wRC+: 90

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