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NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-01-11 03:44:08

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

Toronto Raptors Washington Wizards
torontonba Vegas Total 202.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 102.0 Team Proj. 100.0
Team Pace 95.60 Team Pace 100.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 6 28 30 7 11 Opp. Season 3 16 5 15 18
Opp. Last 7 7 21 27 4 29 Opp. Last 7 14 9 8 21 17

Toronto Raptors

Record: 22-15 — Road: 11-9 — Last 10: 6-4

The Raptors have won six of their last ten games and are now 22-15 on the season. They head to Washington to take on the Wizards in a favorable matchup for fantasy production. The Raptors have an implied team total of 102 points, which is the sixth highest on the board.

The Wizards are one of a handful of teams that is ranked 20th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Raptors should see a small fantasy boost as a whole. DeMarre Carroll will be out for the foreseeable future after having surgery. James Johnson is expected to draw another start in his place.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry

Lowry has been solid over his last five games, averaging 39.5 fantasy points. He could see minutes in the high-30’s tonight against the Wizards in what is a favorable matchup as a whole. Lowry is more of a secondary play at point guard though, as John Wall is an excellent defender.

FD — $9,000 — PG
DK — $8,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.3 | Last Five Games: 22.2
Min/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 37.2
FP/Game — Season: 38.8 | Last Five Games: 39.5

DeMar DeRozan

DeRozan seems a bit overpriced tonight, but given the lack of other shooting guard options, he deserves consideration. He draws a favorable matchup against the Wizards, who have allowed the third most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.

FD — $8,000 — SG
DK — $8,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.8 | Last Five Games: 25.1
Min/Game — Season: 36.5 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 33.1

James Johnson

If you need a punt play at small forward with decent upside, Johnson is worth a look. In his eight starts this season, he has averaged 8 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks/steals. He could see close to 30 minutes tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked dead last against small forwards this season.

FD — $3,500 — SF
DK — $3,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.7 | Last Five Games: 9.7
Min/Game — Season: 14.5 | Last Five Games: 18.0
FP/Game — Season: 10.3 | Last Five Games: 7.7

Washington Wizards

Record: 15-18 — Home: 8-10 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards have won five of their last ten games, as they continue their climb towards .500 on the season. They are listed as 2-point underdogs tonight against the Raptors at home. The Wizards have an implied team total of 100 points, which is slightly less than their average points per game.

The Raptors have been terrific defensively this season, ranking tenth of better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Wizards’ injury report continues to be busy, but they are slowly getting healthy. Bradley Beal has been ruled out, Kris Humphries is listed as questionable, and both Drew Gooden and Nene Hilario will play, but both are on minutes restrictions.

Elite Plays

Otto Porter

Porter is a multi-dimensional player that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He doesn’t draw the best matchup on the board, but he comes into tonight’s game in good form. Over his last five games, he has averaged 32.4 fantasy points in 34.5 minutes per contest.

FD — $6,000 — SF
DK — $5,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.7 | Last Five Games: 15.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 34.5
FP/Game — Season: 25.0 | Last Five Games: 32.4

Secondary Plays

John Wall

Wall’s price has come down a bit across the industry, but he is still a bit expensive for his matchup against Kyle Lowry. Wall has averaged over 40 fantasy points per game in his last five, but he is more of a secondary play at the stacked point guard position.

FD — $9,800 — PG
DK — $9,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.4 | Last Five Games: 26.5
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 38.1
FP/Game — Season: 40.5 | Last Five Games: 41.8

Marcin Gortat

Gortat is an intriguing tournament play tonight. There are slightly better plays for cash games (Nikola Vucevic and Marc Gasol), but Gortat could go under-owned in tournaments. He has really played well over the last month or so and the Wizards are still short-handed in the front-court.

FD — $6,900 — C
DK — $6,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.9 | Last Five Games: 14.8
Min/Game — Season: 31.2 | Last Five Games: 32.8
FP/Game — Season: 29.5 | Last Five Games: 30.5

Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM

Orlando Magic Brooklyn Nets
orlandonba Vegas Total 194.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 194.0
Vegas Sprd -5.5 Vegas Sprd 5.5
Team Proj. 99.8 Team Proj. 94.3
Team Pace 96.70 Team Pace 97.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Shane Larkin Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 27 24 20 10 26 Opp. Season 18 10 17 14 10
Opp. Last 7 20 15 16 23 23 Opp. Last 7 16 18 19 18 7

Orlando Magic

Record: 19-17 — Road: 7-10 — Last 10: 4-6

The Magic have lost six of their last ten games, but they are still two games above .500 on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nets in Brooklyn. The Magic are projected to score 99.8 points, which is slightly higher than their average points per game.

The Nets have struggled on the defensive end of the floor this season. They are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Elfrid Payton has missed the last two games with an ankle injury. He is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game.

Elite Plays

Victor Oladipo

Oladipo is expected to remain in the starting lineup tonight, even if Elfrid Payton returns. Oladipo would obviously be a better play if Payton (doubtful) is ruled out though. In his last two starts, Oladipo has averaged 33 fantasy points in 38 minutes of action. He also draws a favorable matchup against Shane Larkin and the Nets.

FD — $6,000 — SG
DK — $6,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 20.4
Min/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 29.9
FP/Game — Season: 25.9 | Last Five Games: 26.8

Secondary Plays

Nikola Vucevic

Vucevic has only averaged 27.3 minutes per game in his last five, but the Magic have been involved in a number of blowouts during that stretch. He should see minutes in the low-30’s tonight against the Nets, who have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to centers this season.

FD — $7,400 — C
DK — $7,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 21.7
Min/Game — Season: 30.3 | Last Five Games: 27.3
FP/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 23.6

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 10-25 — Home: 6-12 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games and are now a paltry 10-25 on the season. They have been competitive at home though, which is why the spread for tonight’s game is set at only 5.5 points. The Nets are only projected to score 94.3 points against the Magic, which is the third lowest team total on the board.

The Magic have been a slightly better than average team defensively this season. They are ranked at or above the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. With Jarrett Jack out for the season, Shane Larkin will continue to start at point guard.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez

Lopez is one of those players (a lot like Pau Gasol before his recent stretch) that always gets overlooked in daily fantasy. Despite averaging over 35 fantasy points per game this season, he is rarely a popular target in DFS. He is worth a look tonight on DraftKings.

FD — $8,700 — C
DK — $7,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.4 | Last Five Games: 25.4
Min/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 38.0
FP/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 44.7

Thaddeus Young

Young continues to play well for the Nets. He seems a bit overpriced across the industry though and he draws a mediocre matchup against the Magic. Young deserves consideration at power forward, but he’s not a player that I am going to start my lineups with.

FD — $7,100 — PF
DK — $7,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 17.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 30.3

Shane Larkin

Everyone was on Larkin in his first start after Jarrett Jack got hurt. He ended up struggling against the Celtics. The next game, he scored 26 fantasy points in 29 minutes of action. This could be a nice time to buy low on a starting point guard.

FD — $4,400 — PG
DK — $4,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.2 | Last Five Games: 12.0
Min/Game — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 24.6
FP/Game — Season: 16.3 | Last Five Games: 15.8

Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM

Denver Nuggets Memphis Grizzlies
denvernba Vegas Total 194.0 memphisnba Vegas Total 194.0
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 94.5 Team Proj. 99.5
Team Pace 97.10 Team Pace 96.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jameer Nelson Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Darrell Arthur Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Matt Barnes Jeff Green Marc Gasol
Opp. Season 11 6 25 12 4 Opp. Season 28 30 14 20 20
Opp. Last 7 2 1 25 2 2 Opp. Last 7 23 25 22 16 1

Denver Nuggets

Record: 13-23 — Road: 8-12 — Last 10: 2-8

The Nuggets have lost eight of their last ten games. They have surprisingly been competitive on the road though, sporting an 8-12 record away from home. Tonight they head to Memphis to take on the slow-paced Grizzlies. The Nuggets are only projected to score 94.5 points, which is the fourth lowest team total on the board.

The Grizzlies have not been an elite defensive team this season, but they have been better in recent weeks. They are now ranked seventh in points allowed per game and tenth in fantasy points allowed per game. Kenneth Faried will not play tonight, Darrell Arthur is expected to start in his absence. Emmanuel Mudiay is questionable for tonight’s game. When he does return, he will come off the bench behind Jameer Nelson.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 19-18 — Home: 11-6 — Last 10: 5-5

The Grizzlies have won five of their last ten games and have slowly climbed their way above .500 on the season. Tonight they host the Nuggets in what is actually expected to be a close game. The Grizzlies are projected to score 99.5 points, which is 3.5 points higher than their average points per game.

The Nuggets have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Mike Conley and Courtney Lee are both listed as doubtful, which opens the door for a number of fantasy options on the Grizzlies tonight.

Elite Plays

Mario Chalmers

I typically list the players in each section by price, but Chalmers is such a good play that he had to be listed first. With Mike Conley and Courtney Lee both expected to miss this game, Chalmers should draw the start and see minutes in the mid-30’s. Not only is the opportunity there, but so is the matchup.

FD — $4,900 — PG
DK — $4,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.5 | Last Five Games: 22.9
Min/Game — Season: 20.1 | Last Five Games: 24.8
FP/Game — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 26.7

Marc Gasol

Gasol’s production has been down a bit recently, but it should shoot right back up tonight against the Nuggets. With Mike Conley and Courtney Lee out, the Grizzlies will run their offense through Mario Chalmers and Gasol. He provides a high floor and a high ceiling in this favorable matchup. He is my top target at center tonight.

FD — $7,500 — C
DK — $6,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.4 | Last Five Games: 21.3
Min/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 33.5
FP/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 29.1

Tony Allen

It’s been a while since I’ve listed Allen as an elite play. However, with Mike Conley and Courtney Lee both expected to miss this game, Allen will likely draw a start and see 30+ minutes. He is an elite play on FanDuel and close to a must-play on DraftKings (where he is listed as a small forward).

FD — $4,000 — SG
DK — $3,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.0 | Last Five Games: 11.4
Min/Game — Season: 22.6 | Last Five Games: 29.6
FP/Game — Season: 14.5 | Last Five Games: 18.7

Secondary Plays

Matt Barnes

Barnes’ minutes have been down recently, but with the injuries to the Grizzlies’ starting backcourt, he should see minutes in the mid-30’s tonight. He will likely be the lowest owned of the Grizzlies’ starters, making him an excellent tournament play.

FD — $4,900 — SF
DK — $5,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.0 | Last Five Games: 11.1
Min/Game — Season: 25.9 | Last Five Games: 27.6
FP/Game — Season: 19.3 | Last Five Games: 16.6

Jeff Green

Green is a little too expensive on DraftKings, but is a borderline elite play on FanDuel. As I mentioned with Barnes, there will be plenty of minutes to go around tonight and Green could end up spending some time at the two and the three. As crazy as it sounds, I don’t mind targeting 3-4 Grizzlies’ players tonight.

FD — $4,800 — SF
DK — $5,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.1 | Last Five Games: 17.9
Min/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 32.1
FP/Game — Season: 19.6 | Last Five Games: 23.0

Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM

Indiana Pacers New Orleans Pelicans
indiananba Vegas Total 205.0 neworleansnba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 103.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 99.00 Team Pace 98.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Lavoy Allen Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter Tyreke Evans Eric Gordon Alonzo Gee Anthony Davis Omer Asik
Opp. Season 21 27 12 22 29 Opp. Season 4 23 4 18 16
Opp. Last 7 1 30 6 26 25 Opp. Last 7 18 10 5 17 15

Indiana Pacers

Record: 20-15 — Road: 8-10 — Last 10: 4-6

The Pacers have lost six of their last ten games, but are still 20-15 on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pelicans in New Orleans. The Pacers are projected to score 103.5 points, which is the fourth highest team total on the board.

The Pelicans continue to be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked 24th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Pacers see a nice boost as a whole, although there are really only two players on my radar tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul George

George has picked up his play recently, averaging 41.3 fantasy points in his last five games. I’m still not 100% confident that he is back to producing at the level that he was at the first of the season, but he is my favorite play if you are spending up at small forward. The Pelicans have been awful defensively this season.

FD — $8,800 — SF
DK — $9,100 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.6 | Last Five Games: 24.7
Min/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 37.1
FP/Game — Season: 39.7 | Last Five Games: 41.3

Rodney Stuckey

Stuckey is a sneaky play tonight for tournaments. He has played at least 25 minutes in each of his last six games and he is fairly priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Plus, he draws a favorable matchup against the Pelicans, who are ranked 21st against point guards and 27th against shooting guards.

FD — $4,400 — SG
DK — $4,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.5 | Last Five Games: 15.6
Min/Game — Season: 25.4 | Last Five Games: 27.8
FP/Game — Season: 18.7 | Last Five Games: 17.0

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 11-23 — Home: 7-8 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pelicans have won five of their last ten games. While they are not a playoff contender this season, they have been playing much better basketball in recent weeks. The Pelicans are listed as 2-point underdogs with their team total set at 101.5 points.

The Pacers have been stout defensively this season, ranking seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Vegas doesn’t seem to mind the matchup though, as the Pelicans’ team total is nearly identical to their average points per game. Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday are both intriguing tournament plays, but there are better (and safer) options in cash games.

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis

Davis has been tough to predict this season, but he is coming off of a terrific game against the Mavericks. Davis hasn’t been hurt in more than a month, which helps take some of the risk away from playing him. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Pacers and we always like targeting him at home.

FD — $10,400 — PF
DK — $10,600 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.7 | Last Five Games: 23.3
Min/Game — Season: 36.6 | Last Five Games: 37.9
FP/Game — Season: 44.7 | Last Five Games: 44.4

Secondary Plays

NONE

Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM

Dallas Mavericks Milwaukee Bucks
dallasnba Vegas Total 201.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 100.3 Team Proj. 101.3
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 96.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 15 19 28 25 13 Opp. Season 17 5 10 26 7
Opp. Last 7 17 27 27 28 24 Opp. Last 7 12 4 11 20 9

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 21-15 — Road: 10-9 — Last 10: 7-3

The Mavericks have won seven of their last ten games and are now 21-15 on the season. They are coming off of an impressive victory against the Pelicans in which they were without four of their starters. The Mavericks are projected to score 100.3 tonight against the Bucks, which is right around the average of the 20 teams in action tonight.

Even though the Bucks are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this season, they have managed to be one of the worst defensive teams as well. They are ranked 23rd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Given the fact that the Mavericks are completely healthy and that they are one of the more well-balanced offenses in the NBA, I will be avoiding them tonight for fantasy purposes.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 14-23 — Home: 9-7 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bucks have lost six of their last ten games, but at least they have played well at home this season (9-7). Tonight they host the Mavericks in what is expected to be a close game. The Bucks have an implied team total of 101.3 points, which is 3.3 points higher than their average points per game.

The Mavericks are a mediocre matchup. On the season, they are ranked between 14th and 21st in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Jerryd Bayless missed Tuesday’s game against the Bulls. He is listed as questionable, but given the nature of his injury, he is probably closer to doubtful.

Elite Plays

Michael Carter-Williams

This pick hinges on the status of Jerryd Bayless. If he is out again tonight, MCW becomes an elite play in all league formats. Over his last five games, he has averaged 38.7 fantasy points per contest.

FD — $7,100 — PG
DK — $7,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.7 | Last Five Games: 18.2
Min/Game — Season: 30.4 | Last Five Games: 34.7
FP/Game — Season: 27.5 | Last Five Games: 38.7

Secondary Plays

Greg Monroe

Monroe is a bit too expensive to use on FanDuel, but he is priced at a discount on DraftKings. His minutes have been down recently, but he is still producing at a high level. When it comes to tournaments, he could be a nice pivot from some of the more popular targets at center.

FD — $7,400 — C
DK — $6,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 22.4
Min/Game — Season: 30.3 | Last Five Games: 26.6
FP/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 29.6

Khris Middleton

Middleton has been on a tear over his last five games, averaging 36.7 fantasy points. His price has come up across the industry, but he is a decent play if you need a SG/SF at his price point to round out your lineup.

FD — $6,900 — SF
DK — $6,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.2 | Last Five Games: 23.1
Min/Game — Season: 35.2 | Last Five Games: 36.3
FP/Game — Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 36.7

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious