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NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-19 02:35:10

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers Orlando Magic
clevelandnba Vegas Total 209.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Sprd -8.5 Vegas Sprd 8.5
Team Proj. 109.0 Team Proj. 100.5
Team Pace 95.30 Team Pace 97.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Brandon Jennings Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Dewayne Dedmon
Opp. Season 21 6 18 21 15 Opp. Season 18 5 3 1 1
Last 3 Weeks 17 18 9 24 24 Last 3 Weeks 22 4 7 2 3

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 48-19 — Road: 20-13 — Last 10: 7-3

The Cavaliers have won seven of their last ten games, including a narrow victory over the Mavericks without LeBron James on Wednesday night. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on the Magic for the first game in this eight game slate. The Cavaliers are listed as 8.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 109 points. They also have the sixth highest projected point differential at +5.4.

The Magic are a slightly favorable matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked 15th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Mo Williams is not expected to play tonight. Tyronn Lue has also mentioned that he will try to rest one of the big three in games down the stretch of the regular season. Since LeBron James got the night off on Wednesday, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are the likely candidates to be rested tonight. If all three players are active tonight, ignore what is listed below and treat all three as secondary options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,800 Salary:$9,300
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.24 FP/Min:1.33
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.8 35.0 -0.8 34.7 -1.1
FPPG (FD) 44.3 45.4 1.1 41.7 -2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 27.7 0.2 26.8 -0.6

James should be well rested, as he hasn’t played in a game since Monday. Assuming either Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love is rested, that would give a sizable boost to James. He has a usage rate of 31 when Love is out and a usage rate of 34 when Irving is out this season. It also doesn’t hurt that James is currently priced at a discount. If the Cavaliers decide to play all of their stars tonight, I’d bump James down to a secondary play.

Secondary Plays

Kyrie Irving
kyrie-irving-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,400 Salary:$7,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.99 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.8 34.6 3.8 35.8 5.0
FPPG (FD) 30.5 35.4 4.9 35.4 4.8
TO-Adj. Usage 26.2 26.9 0.7 28.3 2.1

If Kevin Love is unable to suit up tonight, I would bump Irving up to an elite play. Using the Court IQ tool, we can see that Irving has a usage rate of 38, while averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute when Love is off of the floor. Irving also comes into this game in great form, averaging 35.4 fantasy points over his last five games.

Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$7,100
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.10
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 31.8 -0.3 31.8 -0.3
FPPG (FD) 32.5 29.0 -3.5 32.9 0.4
TO-Adj. Usage 19.7 19.7 0.0 21.0 1.3

Love is in the same boat as Kyrie Irving and LeBron James. His fantasy appeal goes way up when one of the other superstars is out. He put up 48 fantasy points against the Mavericks the other night when the Cavaliers were resting James. Using the Court IQ tool, we can see that Love has a usage rate of 23 when Irving is off of the floor. That’s considerably higher than his usage rate with him on the floor.

Orlando Magic

Record: 29-38 — Home: 18-16 — Last 10: 4-6

The Magic have lost six of their last ten games and are listed as sizable underdogs tonight at home against the Cavaliers. This is a difficult matchup for fantasy production, as evidenced by the fact that Orlando has the lowest team total on the board. They are only projected to score 100.5 points, which gives them the third lowest projected point differential.

The Cavaliers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. On the season, they are ranked eighth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Nikola Vucevic has already been ruled out of tonight’s contest. Elfrid Payton and Ersan Ilyasova are both questionable.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Victor Oladipo
victor-oladipo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,100 Salary:$7,400
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.5 35.8 3.3 36.0 3.5
FPPG (FD) 29.0 34.1 5.1 36.6 7.6
TO-Adj. Usage 19.7 20.1 0.5 21.0 1.4

When Elfrid Payton and Nikola Vucevic are both off the floor, Oladipo has a usage rate of 28 this season. He also averages 1.02 fantasy points per minute, which is markedly higher than his season average. The only concern that I have for Oladipo tonight is his matchup. The Cavaliers boast a top five defense and they are ranked fifth in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards this season.

Brandon Jennings
brandon-jennings-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.91
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.9 17.7 -0.2 17.3 -0.6
FPPG (FD) 14.8 17.1 2.3 19.0 4.2
TO-Adj. Usage 18.8 20.7 1.9 20.4 1.6

Jennings has made the most of his opportunity to start, scoring 33 and 30 fantasy points in his last two games. His fantasy appeal obviously hinges on the availability of Elfrid Payton though, as we don’t want him splitting minutes with two other point guards. If Jennings does draw the start, he would become a borderline elite play against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 18th against point guards this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder Philadelphia 76ers
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 219.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 219.5
Vegas Sprd -16.0 Vegas Sprd 16.0
Team Proj. 117.8 Team Proj. 101.8
Team Pace 99.50 Team Pace 100.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Isaiah Canaan Hollis Thompson Carl Landry Nerlens Noel
Opp. Season 26 17 28 28 30 Opp. Season 22 19 10 10 5
Last 3 Weeks 28 22 15 26 29 Last 3 Weeks 25 7 11 28 13

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 46-22 — Road: 19-13 — Last 10: 5-5

The Thunder have lost five of their last ten games, but still look like they are locked into the three seed in the West. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Sixers in Philadelphia in a game that features a spread of 16 points. The Thunder are projected to score 117.8 points, which is the highest team total on the board and 7.7 points above their scoring average.

The Sixers have one of the worst defenses in the NBA. On the season, they are ranked 24th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The issue here is the potential for a blowout. The Sixers have not been very competitive recently and they are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The Thunder are still in play, but the starters may see a few less minutes.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,600 Salary:$10,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.42 FP/Min:1.55
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.6 35.6 1.0 33.4 -1.2
FPPG (FD) 49.2 47.0 -2.2 47.1 -2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 28.4 26.3 -2.1 26.5 -1.9

Even though this game features the highest spread on the schedule tonight, we generally don’t have to worry as much about blowouts when it comes to the Thunder. It’s not that they don’t blow teams out, but when they do, it is almost always thanks to big outings from Westbrook and Kevin Durant. The few less minutes than Westbrook may see tonight is more than made up for by his matchup. The Sixers are ranked 26th against point guards this season.

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,400 Salary:$10,100
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.28 FP/Min:1.39
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 35.6 -0.4 33.4 -2.6
FPPG (FD) 46.1 49.9 3.8 43.4 -2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 28.2 2.1 29.0 3.0

Durant is the premier play at small forward tonight (unless Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love is ruled out from the Cavaliers). He has been in terrific form over his last ten games, averaging 49.9 fantasy points per contest. He also draws an elite matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 25th against small forwards and 30th in rebounding differential. I wouldn’t pair Durant with Russell Westbrook, but they are both in play individually for both cash games and tournaments.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 9-59 — Home: 6-28 — Last 10: 1-9

The Sixers have lost nine of their last ten games and are now 9-59 overall. They played well against the Wizards last night, but now have to face the Thunder in the tail end of a back-to-back. The Sixers are only projected to score 101.8 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board.

The Thunder have been a neutral matchup at best this season. They are ranked 17th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Robert Covington and Richaun Holmes are not expected to play tonight and as we know, Jahlil Okafor is out for the season. We always like targeting point guards against Oklahoma City, but there are too many other point guard options to consider using Ish Smith in cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nerlens Noel
nerlens-noel-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$6,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:1.00
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.1 29.6 0.5 33.4 4.3
FPPG (FD) 27.3 30.8 3.5 35.5 8.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 17.7 3.4 17.5 3.2

You couldn’t really go wrong if you paid up for a power forward last night. Noel, Thaddeus Young, and Paul Millsap all had monster fantasy outings. Despite the tough matchup against the Wizards, Noel finished with 48 fantasy points. The concern tonight is twofold. First, the Thunder are tough on opposing frontcourts. And second, Noel logged 35 minutes last night and could see limited minutes tonight if the game gets out of hand.

Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Boston Celtics Toronto Raptors
bostonnba Vegas Total 208.0 torontonba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 105.5
Team Pace 101.30 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Marcus Smart Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo
Opp. Season 3 13 7 3 13 Opp. Season 1 8 22 25 27
Last 3 Weeks 1 16 21 4 6 Last 3 Weeks 10 6 29 13 22

Boston Celtics

Record: 39-29 — Road: 16-17 — Last 10: 6-4

The Celtics have won six of their last ten games and are now ten games above .500 on the season. There are currently four teams in the East with 29 losses, so the Celtics could move up to third or drop all the way down to sixth in the standings. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Raptors in Toronto. The Celtics are only projected to score 102.5 points, which gives them the lowest projected point differential on the board tonight at -3.5.

The Raptors have become a top five defensive team. They are ranked 11th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above, which is why the Celtics have such a low team total tonight. Jae Crowder has already been ruled out, while Jonas Jerebko is listed as questionable. Marcus Smart should continue to start in Crowder’s absence.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas
isaiah-thomas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$7,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.17
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.4 32.4 0.0 33.0 0.6
FPPG (FD) 35.0 35.7 0.6 35.4 0.4
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 27.4 1.5 26.5 0.6

Thomas is priced fairly on FanDuel, but is still too cheap on DraftKings at only $7,300. To me, his fantasy appeal hinges on whether or not Kyle Lowry is in the lineup or not. Lowry is an excellent on-ball defender, so Thomas would see a nice boost if Lowry is ruled out. Thomas comes into tonight’s game in solid form, averaging 35.4 fantasy points over his last five games.

Jared Sullinger
jared-sullinger-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,400 Salary:$5,600
Position:PF Position:C
FP/Min:1.11 FP/Min:1.18
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.1 26.8 2.7 26.8 2.7
FPPG (FD) 26.7 31.9 5.1 33.6 6.9
TO-Adj. Usage 19.0 20.5 1.5 23.2 4.2

Right when we all started to believe in Sullinger again, he goes and puts up a dud against the Thunder. That can happen to players that rely on such high efficiency to reach value. I don’t mind going back to the well tonight though, especially in tournaments. Even with Kelly Olynyk back in the lineup, Sullinger should see minutes in the upper-20s against the Raptors.

Toronto Raptors

Record: 46-21 — Home: 26-8 — Last 10: 7-3

The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games, but seem content with the second seed in the East. They are valuing health over a possible shot at the top seed in the conference. Toronto is listed as a 3-point favorite tonight against the Celtics at home. They are projected to score 105.5 points, which gives them the fifth lowest projected point differential.

The Celtics are not a matchup that we should go out of our way to target players in. On the season, they are ranked 13th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. This would usually be a good spot to avoid the Raptors, but that all depends on the availability of Jonas Valanciunas and Kyle Lowry. Valanciunas has sat the last two games out with a hand injury, while the Raptors said that they would likely rest Lowry on either Thursday (yesterday) or Friday. He obviously played last night against the Pacers and the game went into overtime. For our purposes, let’s assume that they are both out tonight.

Elite Plays

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,400 Salary:$7,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.2 37.7 1.5 40.2 4.0
FPPG (FD) 35.5 39.5 3.9 43.3 7.7
TO-Adj. Usage 26.1 28.3 2.3 30.0 3.9

If Kyle Lowry is able to suit up, I would drop DeRozan down to a secondary play. However, if Lowry is out, he becomes one of my favorite shooting guards on the board tonight. When Lowry has been off of the floor this season, DeRozan has a ridiculous usage rate of 38. He also averages 1.19 fantasy points per minute, which is 0.21 higher than his season average.

Bismack Biyombo
bismack-biyombo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,200 Salary:$4,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.86
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.3 24.3 2.0 27.5 5.2
FPPG (FD) 18.2 21.6 3.5 27.9 9.7
TO-Adj. Usage 8.8 8.2 -0.5 9.3 0.6

As long as Jonas Valanciunas is out again, Biyombo will be one of the most popular plays at any position. He is coming off of a monster outing against the Pacers in which he had 16 points and 25 rebounds. We always like to target bigs against the Celtics and since salaries were released before last night’s games ended, his big outing is not reflected in his price.

Cory Joseph
cory-joseph-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,600 Salary:$3,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.68 FP/Min:0.71
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.7 26.1 0.4 28.0 2.3
FPPG (FD) 17.4 14.1 -3.3 13.6 -3.8
TO-Adj. Usage 14.9 13.0 -1.8 12.2 -2.6

Joseph didn’t play well in the one game that Kyle Lowry missed earlier this season, but we shouldn’t put too much stock into that. If Lowry is out tonight, Joseph would slide into the starting lineup and play 30+ minutes. When Lowry has been off of the court this season, Joseph has had a usage rate of 20, while averaging 0.74 fantasy points per minute.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Sacramento Kings at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

Sacramento Kings Detroit Pistons
sacramentonba Vegas Total 216.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 216.5
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 104.8 Team Proj. 111.8
Team Pace 102.40 Team Pace 97.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Darren Collison James Anderson Rudy Gay DeMarcus Cousins Willie Cauley-Stein Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Tobias Harris Marcus Morris Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 11 9 4 15 8 Opp. Season 24 29 23 30 12
Last 3 Weeks 9 14 25 12 11 Last 3 Weeks 24 13 22 30 1

Sacramento Kings

Record: 26-41 — Road: 12-21 — Last 10: 2-8

The Kings are coming off of an embarrassing loss against the Pelicans at home on Wednesday. They will look to bounce back tonight against the Pistons in what will be a pace down game for Sacramento. The Kings are only projected to score 104.8 points, which is the fourth lowest team total on the board and two points less than their scoring average.

The Pistons have been better defensively than most people realize. They are ranked 11th or better in points allowed perp game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The main injury to monitor here is Rajon Rondo. If he is unable to suit up, Darren Collison would become an elite play in all league formats, while Rudy Gay would also see a boost in usage.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

DeMarcus Cousins
demarcus-cousins-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$11,100 Salary:$10,200
Position:C Position:PF
FP/Min:1.38 FP/Min:1.50
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.7 35.8 1.1 35.3 0.6
FPPG (FD) 47.8 51.4 3.5 49.3 1.4
TO-Adj. Usage 29.1 29.4 0.3 27.7 -1.4

Cousins hasn’t been bad in his meetings against Andre Drummond, but he hasn’t quite reached value either. In his last four meetings against Andre, Cousins has scored 46, 40, 42, and 43 fantasy points. That’s not to say that Cousins can’t have a big game tonight, but we may want to temper our expectations a bit. With so many superstars playing tonight, I will be using Cousins strictly as a GPP play.

Darren Collison
darren-collison-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.83
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.4 33.5 4.1 35.3 5.9
FPPG (FD) 22.6 24.7 2.1 29.7 7.2
TO-Adj. Usage 16.9 15.9 -1.0 17.5 0.6

This pick hinges on the availability of Rajon Rondo. While Collison will start either way, he’s only a great fantasy option if Rondo is ruled out. When Rondo is off of the floor this season, Collison has a usage rate of 23, while averaging 0.95 fantasy points per minute. Even in a difficult matchup against the Pistons, Collison would be a borderline elite play if Rondo it out again.

Detroit Pistons

Record: 34-34 — Home: 19-12 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pistons have won five of their last ten games, but currently find themselves a half game behind the Bulls for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. Detroit is listed as a 7-point favorite tonight at home against the Kings. The Pistons are projected to score 111.8 points, which is the fourth highest team total on the board and 9.8 points above their scoring average.

Anytime we see the Kings on the schedule, we should give a major boost to their opponent. They play at the fastest pace of any team in the league and they are ranked dead last in points allowed per game. Reggie Jackson was originally listed as questionable for this game, but he has been upgraded to probable. That’s probably best, as no one wanted to have to seriously consider rostering Steve Blake. Jackson is an intriguing tournament play that should get overlooked, despite the favorable matchup.

Elite Plays

Tobias Harris
tobias-harris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$6,300
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.0 33.8 0.8 32.9 -0.1
FPPG (FD) 27.0 28.2 1.2 29.1 2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 16.4 17.6 1.1 17.8 1.4

Harris had that one bad outing against the Wizards, but has otherwise been in tremendous form. He has scored at least 28 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. We always want to try to get exposure to players facing the Kings and Harris is by far my favorite play on the Pistons tonight. On the season, the Kings are ranked 23rd against small forwards and 30th against power forwards.

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond
andre-drummond-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$8,100
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.20 FP/Min:1.29
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.2 30.7 -2.5 30.5 -2.7
FPPG (FD) 39.8 36.5 -3.3 33.0 -6.7
TO-Adj. Usage 20.4 19.8 -0.7 19.3 -1.1

Drummond is coming off of a decent outing against the Hawks, where he had 18 points and 18 rebounds. While the Pistons are in a great spot as a whole, the Kings have actually been pretty tough on centers this season. In his last four meetings against DeMarcus Cousins, Drummond has scored 38, 32, 37, and 33 fantasy points. That’s not bad production, but it doesn’t quite reach value at his price point.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
kentavious-caldwell-pope-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,300 Salary:$5,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.65 FP/Min:0.70
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.7 36.8 0.1 37.5 0.8
FPPG (FD) 23.9 25.7 1.7 29.4 5.5
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 17.2 1.1 20.4 4.3

KCP should play close to 40 minutes tonight against the Kings in what will be a pace up game for Detroit. He is a low-risk, medium reward play tonight at shooting guard. Given his recent form – 29.4 fantasy points per game in his last five – KCP can be considered a borderline elite play tonight at home.

Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM

Portland Trail Blazers New Orleans Pelicans
portlandnba Vegas Total 218.0 neworleansnba Vegas Total 218.0
Vegas Sprd -1.0 Vegas Sprd 1.0
Team Proj. 109.5 Team Proj. 108.5
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Tim Frazier Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Omer Asik
Opp. Season 16 26 17 16 29 Opp. Season 23 20 6 18 26
Last 3 Weeks 18 29 28 20 27 Last 3 Weeks 30 20 12 17 25

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 35-34 — Road: 14-22 — Last 10: 4-6

The Blazers have cooled off after their red-hot month of February. They have lost six of their last ten games and now only half a one game lead over the Jazz for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. The Blazers are listed as 1-point favorites tonight against the Pelicans with an implied team total of 109.5 points.

The Pelicans have not fared well defensively this season, ranking 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. We can give the Blazers’ offense a small boost as a whole tonight. Meyers Leonard is not expected to play. While the Blazers still have a number of players in their frontcourt, Leonard’s absence means more minutes for the likes of Mason Plumlee, Noah Vonleh, and Ed Davis.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$9,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.8 35.2 -0.6 35.1 -0.7
FPPG (FD) 40.3 39.4 -0.9 38.2 -2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 28.0 28.1 0.2 26.3 -1.7

Lillard may get overlooked tonight with all of the superstars playing in this slate. He has terrific upside though, as tonight’s game against the Pelicans should be close and high-scoring. On the season, New Orleans is ranked 16th against point guards. Lillard has been playing well coming into this game, averaging 39.4 fantasy points in his last ten outings.

Secondary Plays

Mason Plumlee
mason-plumlee-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,000
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:1.00
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.2 23.7 -1.5 23.8 -1.4
FPPG (FD) 23.3 20.4 -2.8 22.0 -1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 14.1 12.3 -1.8 14.9 0.8

Plumlee is a very interesting play tonight on DraftKings. While Bismack Biyombo is a better play for cash games, Plumlee is a nice pivot in tournaments. He is averaging 1.00 fantasy points per minutes on DraftKings this season and he could see minutes in the mid to high-20s tonight with Meyers Leonard out.

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 25-42 — Home: 17-15 — Last 10: 2-8

The Pelicans have lost eight of their last ten games, but they did pick up a win over the Kings on Wednesday night. Tonight’s game against the Blazers should be close and high-scoring, two attributes that we like to see in DFS. New Orleans is projected to score 108.5 points, which gives them the seventh highest team total and the sixth highest projected point differential tonight.

The Blazers are a slightly favorable matchup when it comes to fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked 15th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Norris Cole is questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to play, give a boost to Toney Douglas and newly-signed Tim Frazier. The Pelicans seem to be limiting Jrue Holiday minutes again. I will be avoiding him until he is back playing 32+ minutes a night.

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis
anthony-davis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,200 Salary:$10,000
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.24 FP/Min:1.32
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.8 36.4 0.6 35.9 0.1
FPPG (FD) 44.5 46.3 1.8 49.9 5.4
TO-Adj. Usage 24.7 26.6 1.9 29.1 4.4

At first glance, I wasn’t going to list Davis as an elite play, given the fact that there are so many superstars in tonight’s slate. However, the power forward position isn’t as stacked as it has been over the last few days. Davis has an elite turnover-adjusted usage rate of 29.1 over his last five games and he draws a nice matchup against the Blazers’ frontcourt. Davis has a decent track record against Portland this season, scoring 49.5 and 49.9 fantasy points in their last two meetings.

Secondary Plays

Toney Douglas
toney-douglas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$5,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.84
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.2 22.5 5.3 31.5 14.3
FPPG (FD) 13.2 17.5 4.2 27.7 14.4
TO-Adj. Usage 15.7 16.3 0.7 16.7 1.0

Douglas has really played well without Eric Gordon and Norris Cole in the lineup. Over his last five games, he is averaging 27.7 fantasy points in 31.5 minutes per contest. There is talk that Tim Frazier could draw the start over him tonight though, which would potentially cut into his minutes.

Tim Frazier
tim-frazier-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,500 Salary:$3,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.62 FP/Min:0.69
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 8.3 26.5 18.2 26.5 18.2
FPPG (FD) 5.1 33.1 28.0 33.1 28.0
TO-Adj. Usage 12.3 20.7 8.4 20.7 8.4

Frazier has been one of the best players in the D-League over the last couple of seasons. With all of the injuries to their backcourt, the Pelicans signed him to a 10-day contract. He played very well in his first game with the team, scoring 33 fantasy points in 27 minutes against the Kings. If he does end up drawing the start at point guard, he is worth a look in all league formats tonight against his former team.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious