NBA Grind Down: Monday, April 9th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| Toronto Raptors | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.0 |  | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -4.0 | Vegas Spread | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.0 | Implied Team Total | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Luke Kennard | Stanley Johnson | Anthony Tolliver | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 12 | 8 | 24 | 19 | 9 | DvP | 9 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 14 | 6 | 23 | 11 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 24 | 5 | 13 | 18 | |
Toronto Raptors
Notable Injuries
Lucas Nogueira (Questionable), Fred VanVleet (Questionable), Watch out for potential rest candidates
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (11 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -5.7 (18 of 18)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $7,500 | $7,500 | 34.6 | -6.3 | 32.2 | -0.9 | 1.08 | 21.8% | 20 | 12 | 18 | |
| DeMar DeRozan | $7,400 | $8,100 | 37.6 | -0.8 | 33.9 | -2.9 | 1.11 | 28.4% | 2 | 8 | 14 | |
| OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,200 | 11.9 | -2.4 | 19.8 | -2.3 | 0.60 | 10.8% | 24 | 24 | 6 | |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,400 | $6,000 | 25.5 | 8.6 | 27.5 | 1.0 | 0.93 | 17.0% | 12 | 19 | 23 | |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $5,600 | $5,700 | 27.0 | -1.9 | 22.4 | -1.3 | 1.20 | 19.2% | 16 | 9 | 11 | |
| Jakob Poeltl | $4,100 | $3,400 | 17.2 | -2.9 | 18.3 | -0.2 | 0.94 | 12.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Fred VanVleet | $4,800 | $4,500 | 19.0 | 1.0 | 20.2 | 0.4 | 0.94 | 19.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Pascal Siakam | $4,700 | $3,400 | 18.5 | -1.6 | 20.5 | -0.6 | 0.90 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Hello Grinders. We’re down to our final week of NBA regular season basketball. Let’s finish this season out strong. We start with the Toronto Raptors, who are playing the backend of a back-to-back and have nothing left to play for. Their priority right now is to stay healthy, as they lost both Lucas Nogueira and Fred VanVleet to injuries yesterday. Neither returned to the game, so we’ll need to monitor the news if they’re out.
DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas both rested last game, and I’m expecting both to return today. It should be a rest day for Kyle Lowry and maybe someone like Serge Ibaka, but maybe we see them at least dress if Nogueira and VanVleet get ruled out. Either way, you should just keep an eye out. Even with DeRozan and JoVal back, I’m going to call them secondary plays in case the Raptors play it safe and scale back their minutes a bit. I do still like JoVal in tournaments as he can put up big numbers in limited time.
OG Anunoby had a career game yesterday scoring 34.5 DraftKings points, but that was without DeRozan and JoVal on the court, and the team had lost two other players to injuries. I don’t want to chase it with DeRozan likely back. I do have interest in Delon Wright if Lowry is rested and VanVleet gets ruled out. He should get as many minutes as he can handle to help out a thin back court. Keep in mind chalk Delon Wright days could also turn out bad, but I think you take the chance here. That could also help out someone like C.J. Miles, so just keep him in mind for GPPs.
If we hear Serge Ibaka is rested and Lucas Nogueira is out, Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl are interesting punt plays, especially since JoVal never plays heavy minutes. I’m not going to call them elite plays just yet without knowing more about the front court situation, but keep them in mind as we get closer to lock and news should make it clear how the Raptors are handling this situation. If Serge plays I like them less, but I still think they are viable GPP punts.
Elite Plays – Delon Wright (assuming Lowry is rested and/or VanVleet is out)
Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Pascal Siakam (GPP, prefer if Ibaka or Nogueira is out), Jakob Poeltl (GPP, prefer if Ibaka or Nogueira is out), Jonas Valanciunas
Update 5:20pm EST – Andre Drummond is OUT. Moving Eric Moreland to an elite punt play as I assume he’ll see an uptick in minutes. Also listing Henry Ellenson as an elite play. It’s unclear who will start and who will get more minutes, so monitor that situation. I’d side with the one who starts.
Detroit Pistons
Notable Injuries
Reggie Bullock (Out), Blake Griffin (Doubtful/Out)
Reggie Bullock is out for the season with Luke Kennard starting in his place. Blake Griffin has also missed six straight games and since the Pistons are out of playoff contention, I would expect him to miss the rest of the season as I see no reason why they would rush him back. I’m assuming he’s out once again and Anthony Tolliver gets the start.
The Pistons lost on Sunday to the lowly Grizzlies, which is pretty sad. This is a backend game of a back-to-back for the Pistons so we should monitor the news if anyone gets ruled out to rest. Someone like Reggie Jackson might make some sense as a rest candidate given his injury history, although he only played 20 minutes on Sunday. Despite being out of the playoff picture, the Pistons continue to give their starters heavy minutes. On Sunday, we saw Andre Drummond play 41 minutes, Luke Kennard play 32, Stanley Johnson play 32 and Anthony Tolliver play 30. Ish Smith led the bench with 28 minutes, posting 35.25 DraftKings points and a double-double. I would like him a lot if Jackson gets ruled out for rest, and even if Jackson starts, I think Smith is a viable GPP punt. Given the circumstances, I’m probably off Reggie Jackson but I’ll list him as a secondary play just in case he gets his normal minutes tonight after seeing fewer on Sunday.
Because the Pistons starters continue to see such heavy minutes, I’m going to assume they keep playing it the same unless we hear otherwise. Drummond has the best matchup of the starters. And while I like the minutes both Kennard and Johnson are seeing, they have some tough matchups on paper.
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (15 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 (15 of 18)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | $6,000 | $5,800 | 25.6 | 3.9 | 26.6 | 1.4 | 0.96 | 26.8% | 6 | 9 | 3 | |
| Luke Kennard | $4,200 | $4,000 | 13.8 | 0.4 | 19.5 | 3.2 | 0.71 | 15.5% | 7 | 2 | 24 | |
| Stanley Johnson | $5,200 | $5,600 | 19.2 | 11.8 | 27.5 | 6.0 | 0.70 | 14.9% | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Anthony Tolliver | $4,500 | $5,800 | 15.3 | 12.7 | 21.8 | 11.6 | 0.70 | 13.4% | 8 | 8 | 13 | |
| Andre Drummond | $10,900 | $9,700 | 45.5 | -0.4 | 33.6 | 2.4 | 1.35 | 18.5% | 13 | 20 | 18 | |
| James Ennis | $3,500 | $3,200 | 14.3 | -9.8 | 22.5 | -9.1 | 0.64 | 12.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Ish Smith | $4,600 | $4,700 | 22.8 | 1.1 | 25.1 | -3.9 | 0.91 | 21.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Andre Drummond, Henry Ellenson, Eric Moreland
Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson, Stanley Johnson, Luke Kennard, Ish Smith (GPP), Anthony Tolliver
Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.0 |  | Vegas Total | 219.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.8 | Implied Team Total | 113.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Cameron Payne | Justin Holiday | David Nwaba | Lauri Markkanen | Cristiano Felicio | Projected Starters | D’Angelo Russell | Allen Crabbe | Joe Harris | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Jarrett Allen | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 28 | 9 | 17 | 28 | 30 | DvP | 21 | 28 | 22 | 22 | 28 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 29 | 21 | 27 | 14 | 26 | DRPM Rat. | 10 | 4 | 20 | 26 | 30 | |
Chicago Bulls
Notable Injuries
Paul Zipser (Doubtful), Noah Vonleh (Out)
The two teams just played over the weekend, with the Nets destroying the Bulls 124-96. Lauri Markkanen missed that game for rest and I’d expect him back today. That should push Bobby Portis back to the bench.
Factoring in price, matchups and a revenge narrative, the main two plays I have interest in are Cristiano Felicio and Sean Kilpatrick. Felicio has been playing well and is a viable punt on sites where you can play multiple centers. Noah Vonleh being out and Robin Lopez being a healthy scratch lately also helps his situation, although Omer Asik has joined the rotation. As for Kilpatrick he’s my favorite guard of the Bulls as he actually has upside. While Cameron Payne continues to start, he generally only sees minutes in the mid-20s and that’s capping his upside. You could also make a case for David Nwaba considering he gets minutes in the 30s, but you’re hoping he racks up a lot of peripheral stats since he’s not a prolific scorer.
You could certainly consider Markkanen or Portis. Portis is definitely a GPP only play with Lauri back. I much prefer Lauri’s $5,700 price on FanDuel over his $6,600 price on DraftKings.
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 103.2 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (12 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 2.6 (7 of 18)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.6 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.8 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Payne | $5,400 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 21.1 | -1.9 | 22.7 | 1.9 | 0.93 | 20.3% | 30 | 28 | 29 |
| Justin Holiday | $4,500 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 23.4 | -2.3 | 31.6 | -9.2 | 0.74 | 16.4% | 5 | 9 | 21 |
| David Nwaba | $5,200 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 18.5 | 4.6 | 23.2 | 3.5 | 0.80 | 13.8% | 8 | 17 | 27 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $5,700 | $6,600 | $11,900 | 28.1 | 2.7 | 29.9 | -5.6 | 0.94 | 19.4% | 29 | 28 | 14 |
| Cristiano Felicio | $5,200 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 12.3 | 10.6 | 17.0 | 8.7 | 0.72 | 11.6% | 29 | 30 | 26 |
| Bobby Portis | $6,500 | $6,500 | $12,800 | 25.6 | -0.6 | 22.4 | -1.4 | 1.14 | 23.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Sean Kilpatrick
Secondary Plays – Cristiano Felicio, Lauri Markkanen (FD), David Nwaba, Bobby Portis (GPP)
Brooklyn Nets
Update 3:56pm EST – Joe Harris has been downgraded to questionable so watch that situation. His absence might mean more playing time for Spencer Dinwiddie, who I’m not adding as a secondary play.
Notable Injuries
DeMarre Carroll (Out), Caris LeVert (Doubtful)
With DeMarre Carroll out, Joe Harris has joined the starting lineup and has been quietly crushing it. Caris LeVert is also looking doubtful today, which should help Harris’ situation even more. He’s scored double-digit points in seven straight games now and while his price increased, he’s still an option on this slate. As strange as it sounds, he’s probably my favorite option on the Nets.
While the matchup against the lowly Bulls is great, the Nets have a tendency to yank around people’s minutes so it’s hard to identify where the production will come from. This is an elite matchup for D’Angelo Russell, but he also only played 23 minutes on Saturday and has been benched randomly. The loss of Caris LeVert should stabilized his minutes a bit more today, as well as for Spencer Dinwiddie and Allen Crabbe. All three are viable today.
Rondae-Hollis Jefferson and Jarrett Allen are also in-play against a weak Bulls front court. I do worry a bit that Quincy Acy and Dante Cunningham have been getting minutes too.
It’s weird that even though I like the matchup, I just can’t advocate any elite plays here because I don’t know who will get the minutes.
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.4 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.3 (4 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 6.8 (1 of 18)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.6 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.8 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D’Angelo Russell | $7,100 | $6,600 | $11,900 | 28.3 | -1.4 | 25.6 | -3.1 | 1.10 | 28.7% | 21 | 21 | 10 |
| Allen Crabbe | $5,300 | $5,500 | $10,700 | 22.3 | -1.4 | 29.4 | -0.5 | 0.76 | 17.1% | 30 | 28 | 4 |
| Joe Harris | $5,200 | $5,200 | $9,900 | 17.8 | 3.3 | 25.3 | 1.4 | 0.70 | 15.1% | 25 | 22 | 20 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,500 | $7,000 | $13,400 | 29.3 | 4.6 | 28.4 | 3.0 | 1.03 | 20.4% | 27 | 22 | 26 |
| Jarrett Allen | $5,700 | $5,300 | $10,300 | 18.9 | 6.8 | 19.9 | 5.8 | 0.95 | 13.6% | 26 | 28 | 30 |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $5,000 | $5,100 | $10,900 | 28.0 | -8.3 | 28.7 | -3.9 | 0.98 | 22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jarrett Allen, Allen Crabbe, Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris (Questionable), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, D’Angelo Russell
Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.0 |  | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.0 | Vegas Spread | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.5 | Implied Team Total | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Corey Brewer | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 3 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | DvP | 8 | 22 | 8 | 10 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 19 | 9 | 12 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 7 | 20 | 7 | 26 | 17 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Notable Injuries
None
The point of the first two games on this slate is to gather as many values plays as possible, because we’re going to want to pay up for someone like Russell Westbrook. The Thunder are sitting in 7th in the West, so they need to win. They play the lowly Grizzlies in their season finale, so this is going to be an all-hands-on-deck type of situation. The problem with Westbrook and any Thunder player is the matchup. The Heat allow the 4th fewest points and are 3rd in DvP against point guards. The biggest debate on this slate is whether to pay up for LeBron James or Anthony Davis in much easier matchups but with potential blowout, or Russell Westbrook in a tougher matchup that should stay closer. This is just my early-morning thought process that’s subject to change, but my preference right now is Westbrook of the three studs and then getting exposure to Lebron next, and then someone like Nikola Mirotic from the Pelicans so that I’m not fading the Pelicans. But we’ll need to see how the slate shapes up and how much value opens.
The Thunder are simple for me – focus on their big four and move on. My priorities are Westbrook, Paul George, Steven Adams and Carmelo Anthony, in that order. I’m not going to mess with any of the bench in a game where the Thunder must win.
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (8 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 1.1 (12 of 18)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $12,500 | $11,900 | $22,000 | 53.8 | 7.1 | 36.4 | 2.6 | 1.48 | 34.2% | 5 | 3 | 22 |
| Corey Brewer | $4,400 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 16.2 | 12.4 | 0.75 | 13.2% | 10 | 14 | 19 |
| Paul George | $8,100 | $7,800 | $14,000 | 38.6 | -1.0 | 36.6 | 1.9 | 1.06 | 23.4% | 11 | 1 | 9 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $5,700 | $5,700 | $11,100 | 27.5 | -1.8 | 32.2 | -0.4 | 0.85 | 21.1% | 14 | 7 | 12 |
| Steven Adams | $6,900 | $6,300 | $12,800 | 31.8 | -3.0 | 32.7 | 2.6 | 0.97 | 14.7% | 8 | 6 | 2 |
Elite Plays – Paul George, Russell Westbrook
Secondary Plays – Steven Adams, Carmelo Anthony
Miami Heat
Notable Injuries
None
We’ll need to see if the Heat rest anyone here. They are currently 6th in the East but could slide down as far as 8th if they lose. Either way, they are locked into their playoff spot so they could use this time to rest a player or two.
If everyone is healthy, I honestly don’t have much interest in this team against a motivated Thunder team. The prices on Goran Dragic and Josh Richardson are a bit too high for my liking if the full team is playing. Kelly Olynyk is also priced too high if Hassan Whiteside, James Johnson and Bam Adebayo are playing. Whiteside would be my main play on the Heat, but it’d be limited to just GPPs since his minutes are unpredictable. This is just not one of my favorite teams on the slate because there’s no value to target or matchup to exploit.
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 103.4 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (14 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 2.1 (8 of 18)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.8 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,600 | $7,000 | $14,400 | 30.7 | 0.7 | 31.7 | -0.7 | 0.97 | 24.9% | 11 | 8 | 7 |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,700 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 22.0 | -6.4 | 28.4 | -4.1 | 0.78 | 17.5% | 22 | 22 | 20 |
| Josh Richardson | $6,100 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 26.8 | 3.3 | 33.2 | -2.1 | 0.81 | 16.7% | 15 | 8 | 7 |
| James Johnson | $6,400 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 25.7 | 1.0 | 26.7 | 3.1 | 0.96 | 18.1% | 12 | 10 | 26 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $6,900 | $7,300 | $13,600 | 34.7 | -4.7 | 25.4 | -4.2 | 1.37 | 20.5% | 1 | 2 | 17 |
| Dwyane Wade | $5,100 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 23.9 | 0.8 | 23.0 | -0.6 | 1.04 | 24.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kelly Olynyk | $6,200 | $6,400 | $12,500 | 24.4 | -3.2 | 23.5 | -4.2 | 1.04 | 19.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wayne Ellington | $3,900 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 17.8 | -4.8 | 26.5 | -1.8 | 0.67 | 15.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside (GPP)
Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET
| Cleveland Cavaliers | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 223.5 |  | Vegas Total | 223.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -12.0 | Vegas Spread | 12.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 117.8 | Implied Team Total | 105.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | George Hill | Rodney Hood | LeBron James | Jeff Green | Kevin Love | Projected Starters | Trey Burke | Frank Ntilikina | Tim Hardaway | Michael Beasley | Kyle O’Quinn | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 23 | 18 | 21 | 14 | 17 | DvP | 25 | 21 | 28 | 17 | 21 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 28 | 19 | 20 | 25 | 5 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 29 | 25 | 16 | 19 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Notable Injuries
Jose Calderon (Questionable), George Hill (Questionable), Rodney Hood (Probable)
Jose Calderon, George Hill and Rodney Hood all wen through shootaround on Monday so we’ll need to keep an eye out on who plays. To be honest it doesn’t impact my outlook too much on this team. The return of Hood maybe lessens LeBron’s workload a bit, and a return of Hill or Calderon would shift Dr. Cedi Osman back to the bench. But this team is just LeBron James and Kevin Love for my DFS purposes. The Cavs can still overtake the 76ers for the 3rd spot in the East so I think they play hard.
The argument with using LeBron James is that he’s facing a bad Knicks team and there are blowout concerns. The argument for using LeBron James is he’s still playing for something and nobody on the Knicks can stop him (I mean, maybe Michael Beasley is a LeBron stopper, but we’ll see). LeBron is an elite play in my eyes, and Love is a secondary play given his price tag.
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.9 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 117.8 (1 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 6.8 (1 of 18)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.9 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hill | $4,200 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 20.1 | -14.1 | 27.4 | -5.0 | 0.74 | 15.5% | 18 | 23 | 28 |
| Rodney Hood | $4,100 | $4,900 | $10,900 | 22.3 | -3.2 | 26.9 | -2.6 | 0.83 | 21.4% | 12 | 18 | 19 |
| LeBron James | $12,200 | $12,100 | $22,300 | 54.5 | 1.5 | 37.2 | 2.1 | 1.47 | 30.0% | 28 | 21 | 20 |
| Jeff Green | $4,500 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 18.5 | 4.1 | 23.5 | 4.5 | 0.79 | 17.0% | 10 | 14 | 25 |
| Kevin Love | $8,100 | $7,900 | $14,400 | 33.1 | -1.4 | 27.9 | 2.7 | 1.18 | 21.8% | 19 | 17 | 5 |
| Jordan Clarkson | $4,300 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 22.1 | -3.6 | 23.5 | -0.8 | 0.94 | 24.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Larry Nance | $4,600 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 24.1 | -7.8 | 21.7 | -6.3 | 1.11 | 14.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James
Secondary Plays – Kevin Love
New York Knicks
Notable Injuries
Emmanuel Mudiay (Out), Enes Kanter (Doubtful), Tim Hardaway Jr. (Doubtful)
The good news is we have some clarity on the Knicks’ injury situation, and I’m going to assume Kanter and Hardaway Jr. are out. Mudiay’s absence would give Trey Burke more time and push Jarrett Jack back into the rotation after seeing 26 minutes on Saturday, while Kanter’s absence should mean Kyle O’ Quinn gets to start with Luke “The Uni” Kornet gets to play some backup center minutes. Tim Hardaway Jr. being out should give Frank Ntilikina, Courtney Lee and Damyean Dotson more playing time. Dotson was a chalky play over the weekend after he exploded in his previous game, but that was likely because THJ was out and Michael Beasley left injured after a few seconds into the game, and Dotson was unusually aggressive. I don’t hate Dotson as a punt play here again in case this game blows out or the Knicks want to continue getting an extended look at him, but I think it should be limited to tournaments.
My favorite play on the Knicks is Kyle O’Quinn, but his price has reached a point where he’s no longer a set-it-and-forget-it play. And as for my man Michael Beasley, he’s a GPP only play without knowing how many minutes he’ll actually see.
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.4 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (12 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (10 of 18)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.9 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Burke | $6,400 | $6,800 | $12,700 | 22.7 | 15.9 | 20.5 | 13.2 | 1.11 | 26.8% | 22 | 25 | 26 |
| Frank Ntilikina | $4,000 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 14.3 | 1.9 | 21.3 | 4.3 | 0.67 | 16.1% | 17 | 21 | 29 |
| Tim Hardaway | $6,000 | $6,700 | $12,600 | 28.5 | -2.5 | 33.1 | 0.7 | 0.86 | 22.0% | 29 | 28 | 25 |
| Michael Beasley | $6,500 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 23.6 | 6.9 | 22.3 | 2.4 | 1.06 | 23.1% | 27 | 17 | 16 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $7,500 | $6,700 | $12,300 | 21.0 | 18.0 | 17.7 | 10.0 | 1.19 | 15.5% | 9 | 21 | 19 |
Elite Plays – Damyean Dotson (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Michael Beasley (GPP), Trey Burke, Frank Ntilikina, Kyle O’Quinn
Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET
| Orlando Magic | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 98.8 | Implied Team Total | 109.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | D.J. Augustin | Wes Iwundu | Mario Hezonja | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Jabari Parker | John Henson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 4 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 27 | DvP | 29 | 26 | 16 | 25 | 25 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 12 | 26 | 26 | 28 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 16 | 29 | 21 | 9 | |
Orlando Magic
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Out), Terrence Ross (Out), Jonathon Simmons (Out)
With Jonathan Isaac, Terrence Ross and Jonathon Simmons out, we should once against see Mario Hezonja in the starting lineup, while Wesley Iwundu and Jamel Artis see some extended run (neither are on my radar right now). I’m surprised they aren’t listing Aaron Gordon or Nikola Vucevic out since this is the backend of a back-to-back as well. We’ll need to monitor the Magic news as it wouldn’t surprise me if one or both were a late rest candidate. For now, I’m assuming both are in.
If both are in, Vucevic and Gordon would profile as secondary plays in GPPs only because of their uncertain minutes and role. The Magic are trying to tank and recently held out Gordon in the 4th quarter of a game they could’ve won. My main interest would be Hezonja and possibly Bismack Biyombo or Khem Birch. Birch is in play regardless as he’s affordable, playing a weak Bucks front court and has posted 31 or more DraftKings points in three of his last four games. I would love him even more if Vucevic got ruled out.
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 103.7 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.8 (17 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -5.0 (16 of 18)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Augustin | $4,400 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 19.1 | 4.9 | 23.6 | 1.5 | 0.81 | 18.9% | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| Wes Iwundu | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 15.9 | 14.1 | 0.57 | 10.9% | 15 | 11 | 26 |
| Mario Hezonja | $5,700 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 19.3 | 8.7 | 21.8 | 7.7 | 0.88 | 17.3% | 15 | 5 | 26 |
| Aaron Gordon | $6,500 | $6,800 | $13,900 | 34.8 | -6.6 | 33.4 | -1.5 | 1.04 | 21.9% | 2 | 12 | 28 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $8,500 | $7,700 | $14,400 | 37.3 | 1.9 | 30.0 | -2.5 | 1.24 | 23.4% | 30 | 27 | 7 |
| Shelvin Mack | $5,200 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 17.3 | 7.1 | 19.8 | 5.3 | 0.87 | 18.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Khem Birch (would be an elite play if Vucevic got ruled out), Aaron Gordon (GPP), Mario Hezonja, Nikola Vucevic (GPP)
Milwaukee Bucks
Notable Injuries
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Questionable), Malcolm Brogdon (Expected to play), Sterling Brown (Not on injury report), Matthew Dellavedova (Out), John Henson (Probable), Shabazz Muhammad (Questionable)
Giannis Antetokounmpo missed Saturday’s game with an ankle ailment, but it was unclear if it was a day or rest or if it’s really bothering him. The Bucks have him listed as questionable and they’ve clinched their playoff spot, but could move anywhere from 6th to 8th (they’re currently 7th and given the current state of the Celtics, maybe they want to stay there).
If Giannis plays I’d consider him an elite play. His return would make me like guys like Jabari Parker, Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton and John Henson a lot less, although they would still be secondary plays. If Giannis is out, those four guys would be elite plays assuming the Bucks play this game to try and win it. Malcolm Brogdon is expected to play today after a lengthy absence so just keep that in mind as that might cit into the minutes of Tony Snell, Jason Terry and Brandon Jennings.
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 106.6 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (6 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 3.2 (6 of 18)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $8,600 | $8,700 | $16,000 | 34.6 | 9.2 | 31.6 | 4.4 | 1.10 | 23.6% | 25 | 29 | 22 |
| Tony Snell | $4,000 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 13.1 | -6.1 | 27.4 | -3.0 | 0.48 | 9.5% | 24 | 26 | 16 |
| Khris Middleton | $8,100 | $8,300 | $15,300 | 35.6 | 6.8 | 36.6 | 1.8 | 0.97 | 22.2% | 23 | 16 | 29 |
| Jabari Parker | $6,400 | $6,300 | $12,500 | 22.6 | 7.9 | 23.3 | 7.0 | 0.97 | 21.5% | 19 | 25 | 21 |
| John Henson | $5,800 | $5,500 | $11,600 | 23.9 | 2.3 | 26.0 | 0.8 | 0.92 | 12.8% | 25 | 25 | 9 |
| Jabari Parker | $6,400 | $6,300 | $12,500 | 22.6 | 7.9 | 23.3 | 7.0 | 0.97 | 21.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |