NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 13th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.0 |  | Vegas Total | 210.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.5 | Implied Team Total | 110.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | George Hill | Garrett Temple | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Zach Randolph | Willie Cauley-Stein | Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 16 | 6 | 30 | 11 | 3 | DvP | 17 | 13 | 5 | 22 | 30 | |
| DRPM | -0.83 | -0.94 | 0.03 | 1.54 | 1.33 | DRPM | 0.60 | -0.33 | N/A | -1.06 | 1.06 | |
Sacramento Kings
Notable Injuries
Vince Carter (Out)
Hello Grinders. We have a nice 9-game slate this Monday with some really juicy games. I know you’re all wondering – where’s Noto? Noto is traveling and will be back tomorrow, so I will be covering for him today. Derek is the GOAT and one of the best in the industry and I know I have large shoes to fill. So before you bring your pitchforks and tear me apart Walking Dead style, have some mercy on me. With that said, let’s dive in!
From a fantasy perspective, the Sacramento Kings are not very exciting. Their leading scoring is Zach Randolph, who isn’t even averaging 13 real life points a game. Their starting point guard is George Hill, whose numbers are down across the board compared to his career averages. There just isn’t a whole lot to love here. The team is mainly made of secondary pieces for DFS purposes, led by rookie De’Aaron Fox. Fox is fresh off a game-winning shot and actually leads the team in assists (5.2) and minutes (26.8) per game despite coming off the bench. Fox is only shooting 40% on the year but does have a 25% usage rate, and should this game blow out, it would work in his favor in gaining some extra minutes.
Outside of Fox, Zach Randolph is serviceable and is averaging a fantasy point per minute. The only downside is that he doesn’t play heavy minutes, and he’s only reached 30 minutes twice all season. Vince Carter has also been out due to kidney stones and he has been ruled out for Monday’s game. That should open up a few more minutes for guys like Justin Jackson, Garrett Temple and Buddy Hield. Hield is the most attractive out of that bunch as he owns the highest usage rate of the three and has had solid outings in his last five games.
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 94.8 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (17 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 4.7 (4 of 18)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.9 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hill | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 15.7 | -3.0 | 25.7 | -4.2 | 0.61 | 16.5% | 47.8% | 16 | -0.83 |
| Garrett Temple | $3,800 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 16.6 | -2.3 | 24.2 | 1.9 | 0.69 | 14.3% | 55.1% | 6 | -0.94 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 19.4 | -0.8 | 23.7 | -2.2 | 0.82 | 18.5% | 54.4% | 30 | 0.03 |
| Zach Randolph | $4,900 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 23.2 | 2.4 | 24.6 | 0.6 | 0.94 | 23.4% | 51.5% | 11 | 1.54 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $4,300 | $4,600 | $10,200 | 22.8 | -2.2 | 24.2 | -3.5 | 0.94 | 15.7% | 54.2% | 3 | 1.33 |
| Buddy Hield | $4,500 | $5,200 | $9,300 | 22.8 | 5.9 | 24.0 | 1.1 | 0.95 | 22.6% | 51.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Zach Randolph, De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield
Washington Wizards
Notable Injuries
None
The Wizards enter Monday’s game with the Kings as heavy favorites, and the risk of a blowout is real. Additionally, the Kings are ranked near the bottom of the league in pace. With that said, there are still some pieces we can attack the Kings with on the Washington side. John Wall only played 24 minutes in his last outing due to him battling an illness and the game was in-hand by the 4th quarter, which explains his lower-than-normal fantasy output. Given the game environment and his salary, there are other guards I’d rather target on this slate.
If you need a piece of this game, I’d much rather have Bradley Beal than John Wall. Both are averaging 34 minutes per game and have similar usage rates, but Beal is significantly cheaper across the industry. However, the Kings have played solid defense against shooting guards this season so this isn’t a spot I really want to attack them with.
My favorite plays on the Kings are Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat. Morris is still making his way back from an injury so he won’t log heavy minutes, but he did reach 20 minutes in Saturday’s game against the Hawks and scored a season high 18 real life points off 10 shots. The Kings have been bad against power forwards this year and Morris’ price is low enough still where you could consider him for cash games if you absolutely need some savings, with the caveat that he probably will only see minutes in the low-to-mid 20s unless we hear otherwise. As for Gortat, this is mainly a recommendation based on the matchup. The Kings are allowing opposing centers to grab 24.1 rebounds per game, which is most in the NBA. The minutes have been there for Gortat (he’s averaging 30.2 minutes per game this season), but he’s put up three consecutive stinkers lately where he didn’t even reach double-digit points or rebounds against the Mavericks, Lakers and Hawks. That’s a bit concerning, but this is a perfect bounceback spot for Gortat if he’s ever going to have one.
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 111.5 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (6 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.0 (14 of 18)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.8 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $9,700 | $9,300 | $16,700 | 44.1 | 1.1 | 34.3 | -3.3 | 1.29 | 28.7% | 52.0% | 17 | 0.60 |
| Bradley Beal | $7,700 | $7,300 | $12,900 | 37.4 | -4.3 | 34.2 | 0.0 | 1.09 | 26.0% | 60.2% | 13 | -0.33 |
| Otto Porter | $6,700 | $6,300 | $13,000 | 34.7 | -6.8 | 33.1 | 0.2 | 1.05 | 16.2% | 67.4% | 5 | N/A |
| Markieff Morris | $5,400 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 18.6 | 2.4 | 19.3 | 2.2 | 0.96 | 19.6% | 60.8% | 22 | -1.06 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,900 | $5,200 | $9,500 | 25.1 | -11.1 | 30.3 | -3.6 | 0.83 | 12.7% | 61.3% | 30 | 1.06 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,400 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 23.4 | -1.9 | 30.4 | -5.8 | 0.77 | 13.7% | 57.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Markieff Morris (Cash), Marcin Gortat (GPP)
Secondary Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter
Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET
| Cleveland Cavaliers | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.0 |  | Vegas Total | 219.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -4.5 | Vegas Spread | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 111.8 | Implied Team Total | 107.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | LeBron James | J.R. Smith | Iman Shumpert | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 15 | DvP | 26 | 28 | 20 | 14 | 18 | |
| DRPM | 0.01 | -1.34 | -1.35 | 1.66 | -0.91 | DRPM | 1.57 | -0.77 | -0.44 | 1.37 | 1.93 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Notable Injuries
Derrick Rose (Out)
If I told you this Cavs-Knicks game featured the 5th place and 9th place teams in the Eastern Conference, I don’t think any of us would’ve guessed that it’s actually the Cavs who are currently out of the playoff picture. The Cavs have been #bad this season on the defensive end. Opponents are averaging over 113 points and 26 assists per game on them, which are among the league’s worst. The Knicks even destroyed the Cavs back on October 29 in a 114-95 game where LeBron James was just held to 16 points and superstar Courtney Lee posted a double-double of 15 points and 10 rebounds.
It’s hard not to love LeBron James in this potential Angry LeBron game in Madison Square Garden. Derrick Rose missed the last game with an injury and Rose has been confirmed out for Monday, so we’ll see more Point LeBron. Given the narrative, game environment and the fact the Knicks are awful defensively as well, this sets up as an elite spot for James.
Kevin Love has exploded in two of his last three games and is still relatively cheap across the sites. Love did post a double-double of 22 points and 11 rebounds in their first meeting. I don’t hate him in this spot again, but it’s worth noting that the Knicks are allowing the fewest rebounds per game to opponents. With Rose confirmed out, I like Love here as CourtIQ shows he sees a usage bump when Rose is off the court.
Outside of his game against Atlanta, Dwyane Wade has been fairly average and is only averaging 21.5 minutes per game. Maybe he wakes up for this game in New York but he’s nothing but a GPP dart throw. The same can be said of J.R. Smith. Smith has actually played six consecutive games of 30+ minutes so the minutes will be there, and he’s actually attempted double-digit shot attempts in his last three games which has boosted his DFS relevance. I’d still only consider him in GPPs but it’s worth noting that he’s heated up. The last guy I’ll mention is Jeff Green. Full disclosure, I am not the Jeff Green whisperer – you’ll have to @ TheSeige for this one. But if Rose is out, Green sees a huge usage bump per CourtIQ and he should at least be on your tournament radar.
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.2 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.8 (5 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 1.6 (9 of 18)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.7 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | $11,200 | $10,700 | $19,200 | 52.8 | -5.5 | 38.3 | 1.2 | 1.38 | 28.9% | 66.3% | 27 | 0.01 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,100 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 15.3 | 8.6 | 29.3 | 6.4 | 0.52 | 13.2% | 46.8% | 8 | -1.34 |
| Iman Shumpert | $3,200 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 13.4 | 4.7 | 22.0 | 7.8 | 0.61 | 10.8% | 57.0% | 12 | -1.35 |
| Jae Crowder | $4,200 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 16.0 | -0.6 | 26.6 | 1.5 | 0.60 | 13.1% | 51.7% | 2 | 1.66 |
| Kevin Love | $7,500 | $7,500 | $12,900 | 36.0 | 12.5 | 29.7 | 3.4 | 1.21 | 22.1% | 60.9% | 15 | -0.91 |
| Dwyane Wade | $4,400 | $4,600 | $8,400 | 20.1 | -3.1 | 21.8 | -1.3 | 0.92 | 21.5% | 45.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love
Secondary Plays – Dwyane Wade (GPP), J.R. Smith (GPP), Jeff Green (GPP)
New York Knicks
Notable Injuries
Joakim Noah (Activated)
The Knicks waived Mindaugas Kuzminskas on Sunday to make room for Joakim Noah, who will be in uniform on Monday against the Cavs. Its unclear how much Noah will play, if at all, but this muddles an already crowded frontcourt with Enes Kanter, Kyle O’Quinn and Willy Hernangomez. Knowing Jeff Hornacek, we could see Noah play 0 minutes or 48 minutes on Monday.
Sorry for burying the lede – this is a prime spot for all the Knicks players against a woeful Cavs defense. The prime target is Kristaps “My First Name Is Plural” Porzingis, who has an insane 32.2% true usage. The only problem is that Porzingis’ price has been rising and rising to the point where you’re going to have to make some tough decisions on a slate filled with some big names. I consider him an elite play given the floor he provides with his sky-high usage and prime matchup, but his price is reaching a point where it makes me pause.
The Cavs have been awful against point guards, shooting guards, and small forwards. This puts superstar Courtney Lee and Tim Hardaway Jr. firmly in play, although I consider them more tournament plays. Regarding the point guard position, Jarrett Jack is still getting 25 minutes a game but I just can’t get myself to click on his name. I suppose he’s dirt cheap enough where you could maybe consider him in cash games, but it would feel wrong of me to recommend him. I’m going to list him as a secondary play only because you play point guards against Cleveland. I’d much rather play his backup Frank Ntilikina, who is getting the other half of those point guard minutes. The two are essentially sharing point guard duties but Ntilikina has a much higher usage rate and has more upside.
Lastly, Enes Kanter is certainly fine against a poor Cavs defense. I’d reserve him for GPPs only given the return of Joakim Noah and Jeff Hornacek’s tendency to morph into the spirit of ex-coach Scott Skiles and just randomly bench people whenever he wants.
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 106.4 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (10 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (10 of 18)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 113.4 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 112.0 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 17.5 | -4.2 | 25.5 | -1.4 | 0.69 | 15.8% | 43.4% | 26 | 1.57 |
| Courtney Lee | $4,700 | $4,100 | $8,100 | 22.1 | 2.1 | 31.7 | 0.0 | 0.70 | 14.4% | 56.8% | 28 | -0.77 |
| Tim Hardaway | $6,000 | $6,200 | $11,400 | 26.9 | 0.2 | 33.0 | -1.5 | 0.82 | 22.1% | 51.0% | 20 | -0.44 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $9,600 | $9,600 | $16,500 | 46.6 | -2.4 | 32.4 | -4.7 | 1.44 | 32.2% | 61.4% | 14 | 1.37 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,600 | $6,500 | $12,000 | 29.2 | -2.3 | 25.1 | -1.3 | 1.16 | 18.1% | 66.4% | 18 | 1.93 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $4,400 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 20.7 | 2.9 | 16.6 | 0.3 | 1.25 | 16.2% | 61.8% | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Ntilikina | $4,400 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 17.2 | 3.0 | 20.2 | 3.7 | 0.85 | 15.8% | 39.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis
Secondary Plays – Enes Kanter (GPP), Tim Hardaway Jr. (GPP), Courtney Lee (GPP), Frank Ntilikina (GPP), Jarrett Jack (only because you play point guards against Cleveland but I don’t love him)
Memphis Grizzlies at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET
| Memphis Grizzlies | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.0 | Vegas Spread | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.5 | Implied Team Total | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Mike Conley | Dillon Brooks | James Ennis | Jarell Martin | Marc Gasol | Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Khris Middleton | Tony Snell | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 23 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 20 | DvP | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 10 | |
| DRPM | -0.53 | 0.54 | -0.79 | 1.49 | 2.02 | DRPM | -0.50 | N/A | 1.40 | 1.38 | 0.84 | |
Memphis Grizzlies
Notable Injuries
JaMychal Green (Doubtful); Jarell Martin (Questionable)
The Grizzlies enter Monday’s matchup against the Bucks tied for the lowest implied team total. To make matters worse, JaMychal Green remains doubtful and Jarell Martin popped up on the injury report as questionable. The good news is that the Grizzlies got Ben McLemore and Wayne Selden back over the weekend.
On paper this game feels like an ugly slugfest, but Marc Gasol stands out as the best play on the Grizzlies side. The Bucks haven’t been great about defending opposing centers and Gasol has the ability to explode for huge games from time to time.
Mike Conley hasn’t been great this season, and I typically don’t play point guards against the Bucks, but Conley’s price is starting to creep down to the lowest it’s been all season and Eric Bledsoe will now be on the other end instead of Malcolm Brogdon. As tempting as it is, Conley is strictly a GPP play for me.
The Jarell Martin news is somewhat big, so make sure to monitor it throughout the day. If Martin is out, we could see Brandan Wright or Deyonta Davis move into the starting lineup. Wright would make for an interesting GPP punt play if he could secure enough minutes. Martin being out could also lead to more small-ball lineups for the Grizzlies, which would be benefit Tyreke Evans. Evans is second on the team with a 25.2% true usage and would make for a great DFS option.
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 101.0 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (17 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 (15 of 18)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.7 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Conley | $6,900 | $6,500 | $13,200 | 29.8 | 0.9 | 30.9 | -0.9 | 0.96 | 26.6% | 53.8% | 23 | -0.53 |
| Dillon Brooks | $4,100 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 19.2 | 4.3 | 29.5 | 1.0 | 0.65 | 12.9% | 51.1% | 1 | 0.54 |
| James Ennis | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 19.0 | -3.0 | 30.2 | 2.7 | 0.63 | 10.0% | 67.6% | 7 | -0.79 |
| Jarell Martin | $3,300 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 15.6 | -2.0 | 21.5 | -1.9 | 0.73 | 11.4% | 47.5% | 20 | 1.49 |
| Marc Gasol | $7,600 | $7,200 | $12,900 | 38.4 | -3.2 | 33.9 | -1.0 | 1.13 | 23.9% | 55.2% | 20 | 2.02 |
| Tyreke Evans | $6,800 | $6,500 | $12,100 | 30.3 | 7.5 | 27.3 | 3.9 | 1.11 | 25.2% | 61.8% | N/A | N/A |
| Mario Chalmers | $3,300 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 18.1 | -4.7 | 22.7 | -2.9 | 0.80 | 18.5% | 43.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Marc Gasol, Tyreke Evans (especially if Jarell Martin is out)
Secondary Plays – Mike Conley, Brandan Wright (GPP only if Jarell Martin is out)
Milwaukee Bucks
Notable Injuries
Update 1:45pm EST – Eric Bledsoe has been added to the injury list as a Game Time Decision with a knee injury but did go through shootaround and appears more Probable.
Mirza Teletovic (Doubtful); Eric Bledsoe (Game Time Decision)
The big question you’ll have to ask yourself about this game is whether you want to play Giannis Antetokounmpo against an elite Memphis defense who plays at a snail’s pace. The Grizzlies have a top 11 ranked DvP at every position, although they could be without Jarell Martin. From a game theory perspective, I’d expect ownership to gravitate towards LeBron James in a juicy matchup against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. If that’s the case (and I would confirm with Gimino’s ownership projections), that would make Giannis an elite tournament pivot. We just saw James Harden torch this Memphis defense, so it’s not like they can’t be beat.
Mirza Teletovic’s injury has opened the door for Malcolm Brogdon to play more minutes off the bench. But to be honest, Brogdon, Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton are nothing more than secondary plays for me. I’m not a fan of targeting the Grizzlies, especially on a large nine-game slate.
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.8 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (15 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 (13 of 18)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.6 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.9 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $6,400 | $6,100 | $13,400 | 25.1 | -0.8 | 28.5 | 1.5 | 0.88 | 26.0% | 46.5% | 11 | -0.50 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,000 | $6,600 | $11,100 | 34.7 | -0.2 | 37.1 | 2.1 | 0.94 | 23.1% | 49.9% | 10 | N/A |
| Tony Snell | $3,400 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 17.1 | -2.1 | 32.2 | -1.8 | 0.53 | 9.1% | 68.9% | 1 | 1.40 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $12,000 | $10,800 | $19,200 | 57.4 | 2.4 | 37.3 | 1.4 | 1.54 | 30.1% | 64.6% | 10 | 1.38 |
| John Henson | $5,100 | $4,500 | $9,900 | 20.3 | 3.6 | 21.7 | 3.6 | 0.93 | 10.7% | 53.3% | 10 | 0.84 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $6,100 | $5,400 | $9,900 | 28.0 | 2.6 | 33.5 | 1.2 | 0.84 | 18.3% | 61.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo
Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon, Khris Middleton
Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET
| Atlanta Hawks | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 218.0 |  | Vegas Total | 218.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 9.0 | Vegas Spread | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.5 | Implied Team Total | 113.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Luke Babbitt | Dewayne Dedmon | Projected Starters | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 4 | 22 | 26 | 19 | 5 | DvP | 21 | 30 | 16 | 24 | 22 | |
| DRPM | 1.40 | -1.63 | -0.47 | 3.65 | 0.57 | DRPM | -2.53 | -1.09 | 2.66 | 1.27 | 4.86 | |
Atlanta Hawks
Notable Injuries
Ersan Ilyasova (Out); Mike Muscala (Doubtful); Marco Belinelli (Probable); Malcolm Delaney (Probable)
The Hawks are an interesting team because their prices are low enough where they can be considered in both cash and tournaments, but you’re never really excited about playing them. Dennis Schroder continues to be under-priced despite have a 29.2% true usage. The matchup against Jrue Holiday isn’t ideal, but he’s basically their main source of offense. He’s the only player on the Hawks that I would go out of my way to roster in this game.
Kent Bazemore has also been sneakily good at times this season and gets an exploitable matchup against E’Twaun Moore. The same could be said for Taurean Prince. Both of these guys are priced down enough to provide some salary relief while providing a decent level of upside.
There is nothing more tilting than playing a H2H and watching Luke Babbitt take over a game when your opponent has him. COME ON MAN, LUKE BABBITT?!! But in all honesty, Babbitt is dirt cheap and the minutes have been there with Ilyasova out, so if you want to roll him out there in cash games I suppose it’s viable. He has to deal with Anthony Davis but Babbitt could still find a way to hit value in a tough matchup.
The last guy I’ll mention is John Collins. He’s always in play in tournaments, but the guy is a walking foul machine. He’s currently averaging 6.6 fouls per 36 minutes. In other words, he can’t even get to 36 minutes if he wanted to. He’s accumulated 5 fouls in each of the last three games, and that has limited his minutes. I imagine they’ll need him in there if Babbitt or Dedmon get into foul trouble, but I’m not optimistic he’ll be able to stay out of foul trouble himself. Speaking of which, that makes Dewayne Dedmon somewhat interesting. Let me first caveat that I’m not recommending Dewayne Dedmon as even a secondary play against Boogie, but with Ersan out and Muscala doubtful, if Collins gets himself into foul trouble the Hawks will have no choice but to play Dedmon heavy minutes like they did a few nights ago versus Boston. Again, this is not an endorsement for Dedmon, but I don’t hate him as a punt on a few teams if you’re rolling out 150 lineups.
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.5 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (13 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 2.0 (8 of 18)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.9 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,000 | $7,100 | $12,500 | 35.2 | -2.5 | 32.6 | 1.8 | 1.08 | 29.2% | 52.9% | 4 | 1.40 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,200 | $5,000 | $10,600 | 28.5 | -0.3 | 29.1 | -1.5 | 0.98 | 21.1% | 50.0% | 22 | -1.63 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,800 | $5,300 | $10,500 | 26.0 | -0.7 | 31.5 | 0.5 | 0.83 | 18.1% | 51.6% | 26 | -0.47 |
| Luke Babbitt | $3,400 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 20.0 | 7.8 | 0.65 | 12.2% | 64.4% | 19 | 3.65 |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $5,400 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 22.9 | 7.1 | 24.9 | 3.5 | 0.92 | 13.9% | 62.1% | 5 | 0.57 |
| John Collins | $4,800 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 23.5 | -8.2 | 20.9 | 0.8 | 1.12 | 19.0% | 54.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder
Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, Luke Babbitt (Cash)
New Orleans Pelicans
Notable Injuries
Tony Allen (Out)
The Pelicans have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate and are sneakily a great source of fantasy goodness. The Hawks are allowing the second most rebounds to opponents this season, so this is a potential smash spot for both Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Both should be considered elite plays.
It’s been a DFS rule to play point guards against Dennis Schroder, and this season is no different. Atlanta allows the second most fantasy points to opposing point guards. If you can’t afford to pay up for Davis or Cousins, a pivot to Jrue Holiday is an interesting way to ensure you get a piece of this offense. I also don’t even mind E’Twaun Moore in tournaments as the Hawks have the 30th ranked DvP against shooting guards this season.
One thing to note is that Tony Allen is expected out. In their last game, it was actually Cheick Diallo (Cheick Please!) rather than Ian Clark who saw the bump in minutes. Neither are necessarily DFS relevant in this spot, but I just wanted to point this out.
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 107.5 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.5 (3 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 6.0 (3 of 18)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.8 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.3 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday | $7,000 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 31.0 | 0.5 | 37.2 | -1.5 | 0.83 | 19.0% | 51.1% | 21 | -2.53 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,400 | $4,000 | $7,400 | 20.7 | 4.4 | 31.3 | -1.4 | 0.66 | 13.9% | 57.2% | 30 | -1.09 |
| Dante Cunningham | $3,400 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 13.6 | -1.8 | 25.6 | -2.9 | 0.53 | 9.4% | 44.5% | 16 | 2.66 |
| Anthony Davis | $11,400 | $11,000 | $20,100 | 54.1 | 0.6 | 37.1 | 2.5 | 1.46 | 24.0% | 64.8% | 24 | 1.27 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $11,700 | $11,300 | $19,600 | 58.5 | -5.3 | 38.2 | -0.1 | 1.53 | 29.0% | 58.4% | 22 | 4.86 |
| Jameer Nelson | $4,200 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 18.7 | 0.9 | 27.4 | 0.9 | 0.68 | 13.6% | 52.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, Jrue Holiday
Secondary Plays – E’Twaun Moore
Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz – 9:00 PM ET
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Utah Jazz | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.5 | Vegas Spread | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.0 | Implied Team Total | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Thabo Sefolosha | Derrick Favors | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 5 | 7 | 15 | 5 | 4 | DvP | 29 | 20 | 27 | 4 | 14 | |
| DRPM | 0.67 | N/A | 0.04 | 2.34 | 2.41 | DRPM | -0.24 | 1.86 | -2.73 | 2.10 | -1.71 | |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Notable Injuries
Gorgui Dieng (Questionable); Cole Aldrich (Questionable)
On paper, this is an extremely difficult matchup for the Timberwolves. The Jazz rank in the top 15 in DvP for every position. But with the news that Rudy Gobert will miss the next several weeks, that shifts Thabo Sefolosha into the power forward spot and moves Derrick Favors to center. I’m curious how much of this DvP Rudy Gobert accounted for. Having an elite defensive center should cover up the mistakes of others, and I’m wondering how much (if any) this defense slips with Rudy out. The Jazz just gave up 106 points to the Nets on Saturday without him.
With all that said, I still feel this team is solid defensively, especially with Thabo in the starting lineup. Taj Gibson has been on a tear and if Dieng and Aldrich remain out, they’ll have no choice but to run him out there for extended minutes. I don’t love the matchup against Thabo, but his minutes would be secure if he stayed out of foul trouble. Karl-Anthony Towns has a really tempting price over on DraftKings and FantasyDraft specifically. He makes for a fine tournament play as I expect his ownership to be lower than normal given the mindset we have to avoid playing centers against the Jazz, except this is a Gobert-less Jazz team now. Jimmy Butler finally had his breakout game on Saturday but that was against the uptempo Suns. The Jazz rank 26th in pace and this has the makings of a bore-fest. I don’t hate the idea of using him in tournaments and hoping he’s turned a corner.
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 108.8 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (11 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (17 of 18)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.2 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $6,500 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 32.1 | 1.4 | 32.9 | 0.1 | 0.97 | 20.8% | 51.7% | 5 | 0.67 |
| Jimmy Butler | $7,100 | $6,700 | $12,000 | 30.9 | -0.2 | 36.0 | -1.9 | 0.86 | 19.5% | 52.7% | 7 | N/A |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,100 | $6,700 | $13,000 | 30.6 | 2.8 | 35.6 | -0.3 | 0.86 | 22.6% | 53.6% | 15 | 0.04 |
| Taj Gibson | $4,600 | $4,700 | $8,900 | 24.9 | 1.3 | 29.8 | 1.0 | 0.83 | 12.6% | 58.2% | 5 | 2.34 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,400 | $8,600 | $16,900 | 41.1 | -4.8 | 32.8 | -1.3 | 1.25 | 21.5% | 62.1% | 4 | 2.41 |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,000 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 15.4 | -6.0 | 19.2 | -3.2 | 0.80 | 21.3% | 53.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns
Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague, Taj Gibson, Andrew Wiggins
Utah Jazz
Notable Injuries
Rudy Gobert (Out)
With Rudy Gobert out, Thabo Sefolosha enters the starting lineup and Derrick Favors shifts to the center spot. It’s a huge blow to the team, but the Jazz offer a sneaky source of value on this huge slate filled with studs. Derrick Favors exploded for 24 points and 12 rebounds against the woeful Nets on Saturday. Karl-Anthony Towns will offer a little more resistance, but this is not a matchup I’m scared of. I love targeting centers versus KAT and given Favors’ price is still very favorable (pun intended), I’m going back to the well here.
I also don’t mind Thabo Sefolosha as a punt play. His five steals on Saturday aren’t sustainable and are a bit of an outlier, but he is averaging 1.4 steals per game and offers upside at his price. Joe Ingles should also see an uptick in minutes with Gobert out, but his price is getting on the high end where I’m not too comfortable paying it.
Donovan Mitchell has moved into the starting lineup and had a fantastic last game. His price is starting to skyrocket and he’s no longer that value punt play we’ve been attacking. Additionally, he’s shooting a Lonzo Ball-esque 38.4% from the field this season, which is a concern for me. Rodney Hood costs significantly less and feels like the better value of the two.
I have to at least mention Ricky Rubio. His price across the industry is kind of in this no-man’s land area. He gets a great matchup against Jeff Teague, who has the 29th ranked DvP and the Timberwolves are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing point guards. Rubio has been inconsistent this season so I’m still not sure I can use him in cash games, but he makes for a fantastic tournament play given the matchup.
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 98.3 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (16 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 4.2 (5 of 18)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.8 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.9 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $7,500 | $7,100 | $13,400 | 30.8 | -3.0 | 31.6 | -2.5 | 0.98 | 23.0% | 52.7% | 29 | -0.24 |
| Donovan Mitchell | $5,800 | $5,800 | $10,900 | 23.0 | 1.2 | 26.1 | 4.7 | 0.88 | 25.8% | 46.3% | 20 | 1.86 |
| Joe Ingles | $5,700 | $5,800 | $9,900 | 25.7 | 0.7 | 30.3 | 2.6 | 0.85 | 16.6% | 57.6% | 27 | -2.73 |
| Thabo Sefolosha | $4,100 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 18.8 | 5.2 | 21.6 | 2.4 | 0.87 | 13.3% | 59.0% | 4 | 2.10 |
| Derrick Favors | $5,400 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 21.9 | 2.2 | 27.1 | -0.5 | 0.81 | 16.5% | 56.7% | 14 | -1.71 |
| Rodney Hood | $4,900 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 20.8 | 4.6 | 28.0 | 2.8 | 0.74 | 23.3% | 52.3% | N/A | N/A |