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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 5th

by Chirag Hira (INSPYR) Last Updated 2016-11-06 01:30:53

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder – 6:00 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves Oklahoma City Thunder
minnesotanba Vegas Total 206.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 100.0 Team Total 106.0
Pace +/- 6.4 Pace +/- -4.0
Proj. Starter Kris Dunn Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 19 4 13 16 2 2016-17 1 6 26 5 16

Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota begins a three-game road trip tonight in Oklahoma City against a Thunder team that is looking to bounce back after a blowout loss to the Thunder. This game is not available on the slate for DraftKings, but it available on FanDuel. Karl-Anthony Towns was dominant against the Nuggets on Thursday and saw his salary rise $300. Among centers, he’s only cheaper than DeMarcus Cousins on tonight’s slate, but both players have about the same ceiling as road underdogs. Andrew Wiggins has been steady but does not provide any other stats outside of scoring, making him a low-ceiling GPP play. Dieng finally came back down to earth after three consecutive 35 FDFP outings. He’s an elite option against the Thunder and should have slightly lower ownership after his terrible game.

Kris Dunn has already taken a strangle hold on the starting PG position in Minnesota, and it’ll be really interesting to see how the T-Wolves decide to use him once Rubio returns. His salary has not moved, and he is a cash game option for tonight’s game but still has some possible GPP upside. Zach LaVine looks like a viable option, but there are better SG options available on this slate. The Timberwolves bench is filled with minimum-priced guys and should only be used if absolutely necessary.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Kris Dunn PG $4,900 23.5 20.4 0.87 16.0% 19
Zach LaVine SG $6,000 33.8 30.3 0.90 22.9% 34.1% 4
Andrew Wiggins SF $6,300 33.8 29.5 0.87 23.0% 32.7% 13
Gorgui Dieng PF $6,100 32.5 29.4 0.90 12.3% 22.6% 16
Karl-Anthony Towns C $8,900 35.3 39.0 1.10 23.0% 31.0% 2

Elite Plays – Kris Dunn, Gorgui Dieng, Karl-Anthony Towns (cash)

Secondary Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns (GPP), Zach LaVine

Oklahoma City Thunder

Russell Westbrook is ready to unleash on the T-Wolves. Billy Donovan did try to limit Westbrook’s minutes on the back-to-back road game set, but expect Beastbrook to feed off the energy of the home crowd and have a great game. His salary came down a little, and he makes for an elite cash game option who will always have tournament upside. With eight games on the slate, there should be enough viable punt options to make a team with Westbrook work.

Victor Oladipo’s salary continues to drop, making him a viable tournament option against the Timberwolves. Steven Adams should see plenty of minutes against KAT and is a solid option, but he could have a tough time scoring. Jerami Grant is still working to get into a rhythm with his new team and is a risky GPP option without a ton of upside. Kanter only saw three minutes against the Warriors on Thursday, but he should see 22-24 minutes tonight. His salary also continues to drop, but he is not a viable option for cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Russell Westbrook PG $11,800 37 63.1 1.71 39.3% 55.2% 1
Victor Oladipo SG $5,800 35.2 23.1 0.66 19.0% 32.7% 6
Andre Roberson SF $3,800 31.3 21.6 0.69 8.1% 12.4% 26
Domantas Sabonis PF $3,800 14.4 9.6 0.66 10.3% 5
Steven Adams C $5,100 34 25.0 0.74 9.2% 15.3% 16

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo

Secondary Plays – Steven Adams

Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Philadelphia 76ers
clevelandnba Vegas Total 207.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Spread -13.5 Vegas Spread 13.5
Team Total 110.5 Team Total 97.0
Pace +/- 0.5 Pace +/- -0.7
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Sergio Rodriguez Gerald Henderson Robert Covington Dario Saric Joel Embiid
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 27 11 11 21 18 2016-17 2 29 5 5 7

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland travels to Philadephia tonight for a quick one-game road trip. While Vegas think this game will be a blowout, that doesn’t mean there aren’t some great plays available. The Cavs don’t play again until Tuesday, so they should not have their minutes limited. LeBron James has been his dominant self and is averaging a shade over 36 minutes a game. He’s an elite option every time he takes the floor, and his ownership could be low if other users see the blowout potential and avoid him. He also hampers your ability to get Westbrook and Harden on a team.

Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are both under $8k and should see their salaries rise. While they are great options against the Sixers, both players should only be used in tournaments. Channing Frye has been consistent and is a minimum-priced option on DraftKings and $200 over the minimum on FanDuel. He does not have to do much to exceed value and could be a nice option to get in other high-priced options on this slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Kyrie Irving PG $7,800 PG $7,600 PG $11,900 34.8 35.7 1.03 27.6% 43.0% 27
J.R. Smith SG $4,300 SG $4,300 SG $8,500 31.4 19.1 0.61 15.1% 22.6% 11
LeBron James SF $9,700 SF/PF $9,700 SF $14,600 36.5 46.4 1.27 28.8% 48.7% 11
Kevin Love PF $7,500 PF/C $7,400 PF $11,300 31.4 36.1 1.15 24.3% 30.1% 21
Tristan Thompson C $4,700 C $4,900 PF $8,300 28.7 23.5 0.82 7.4% 14.0% 18

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love

Secondary Plays – Channing Frye (GPP)

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have been feeding off their home crowd and will likely rely heavily on “The Process” anytime he is on the floor. He’s been a monster in limited minutes, but tonight, he gets a tough matchup with the Cavs and Tristan Thompson. While he could still dominate, it’s tough to expect him to exceed value with Jahlil Okafor also expected to play 20-24 minutes tonight. We might have to pump the brakes on the hype train for one game and look at some players expected to be on the floor longer than Embiid.

Sergio Rodriguez has been masterful guiding the Sixers and is a tournament option again tonight. He gets the players the ball in the right places and is a threat to hit an open shot. His salary has spiked considerably, making it a little bit tougher for him to exceed value in this game. Dario Saric has been playing well the last couple games, but we need to see how they continue to expand Ersan Ilyasova before we can lock in Saric. DraftKings was quick to adjust Ilyasova’s salary, so he is really only an option for tournaments on FanDuel.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Sergio Rodriguez PG $5,100 PG $5,300 PG $8,200 29.7 26.4 0.89 21.6% 2
Gerald Henderson SG $4,000 SG $3,500 SG $9,000 24.7 14.9 0.60 15.2% 24.9% 29
Robert Covington SF $4,400 SF $4,500 SF $9,500 27.1 14.6 0.54 9.5% 26.6% 5
Dario Saric PF $4,100 SF/PF $4,700 PF $9,200 28.6 19.1 0.67 17.6% 5
Joel Embiid C $4,800 C $5,600 C $9,100 20.9 29.2 1.40 25.1% 7

Elite Plays – N/A

Secondary Plays – Sergio Rodriguez, Gerald Henderson

Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Orlando Magic
washingtonnba Vegas Total 200.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 200.5
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 97.8 Team Total 102.8
Pace +/- -1.5 Pace +/- -1.6
Proj. Starter Trey Burke Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Nikola Vucevic
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 23 10 21 17 30 2016-17 18 26 16 13 18

Washington Wizards

The Wizards travel to Orlando for a game on the second night of a back-to-back. John Wall has already been ruled out, and Tomas Satoransky is expected to start in his place. Trey Burke only saw seven minutes in their last game and six in the game prior to that; he will likely be used as his backup. With Trey Burke not seeing the court much, Marcus Thornton deserves a look. He’s min-priced on both site, but keep in mind that he is very scoring dependent.

Bradley Beal and Markieff Morris were able to break out last and both are in play as the main options with Wall out. Beal displayed an ability to be a strong ball-handler and should see his usage spike due to Wall being out. He’s played 39 or more minutes in three consecutive games, meaning we should expect him to play at least 32 tonight. Coach Scott Brooks mentioned that Morris would play with the second unit, and he did just that last night. Morris was one rebound away from a double-double and his multi-position eligibility along with cheap salary that was not able to account for his outburst, make him a viable tournament option again tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Trey Burke PG $3,500 PG $3,100 PG $7,400 13.3 5.5 0.42 10.7% 36.6% 23
Bradley Beal SG $5,300 SG $5,300 SG $10,300 34 20.6 0.61 19.6% 33.9% 10
Otto Porter SF $5,100 SF $5,000 SF $8,400 33.5 26.9 0.80 14.5% 20.7% 21
Markieff Morris PF $5,500 SF/PF $5,500 PF $9,100 33.1 23.9 0.72 14.1% 31.4% 17
Marcin Gortat C $5,800 C $6,000 C $9,300 37.7 28.2 0.75 9.0% 23.0% 30

Elite Plays – Tomas Satoransky, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris

Secondary Plays – Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat

Orlando Magic

Orlando will look to continue their winning streak against the Wizards tonight. Evan Fournier led the Magic with 29 points and is locked into his scoring role. He did not provide much else in the box score outside of scoring, but he gets an elite matchup against Bradley Beal tonight and should stuff the stat sheet against tonight. Elfrid Payton has been playing really consistently, dishing out 10 and 11 assists in his last two games. While he can’t hit a jumper to save his life, he does have his floater working. The minutes are also there, but his salary has continued to spike. Payton is still playable in all formats, but there are a lot of good to great options in this price range tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Elfrid Payton PG $6,100 PG $6,200 PG $9,800 34.2 29.5 0.86 24.1% 39.7% 18
Evan Fournier SG $6,000 SG $6,100 SG $9,200 35.5 27.7 0.78 22.3% 28.8% 26
Aaron Gordon SF $5,900 SF/PF $5,800 SF $9,200 30.4 26.3 0.87 16.2% 22.5% 16
Serge Ibaka PF $5,500 PF/C $5,600 PF $10,300 30.2 22.7 0.75 18.0% 20.1% 13
Nikola Vucevic C $7,500 C $6,300 C $10,500 29.4 33.5 1.14 20.3% 36.2% 18

Elite Plays – Evan Fournier, Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton

Secondary Plays – Serge Ibaka

Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls Indiana Pacers
chicagonba Vegas Total 212.0 indiananba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 107.5
Pace +/- 2.7 Pace +/- -1.5
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Monta Ellis Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 25 20 24 18 14 2016-17 13 8 17 23 9

Chicago Bulls

The Chicago Bulls travel to Indiana after losing to the Bulls at home last night. Dwyane Wade found the fountain of youth last night, putting up 35 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. We can’t expect that kind of performance from him on the second night of a back-to-back. Furthermore, there is a risk that he could sit this game out since this is the third game in four nights for the Bulls. Nothing official has been mentioned at this time, but it is something to consider. Jimmy Butler has been extremely consistent this season and has been a solid cash game piece. His salary is accounting for his consistency, and he would need Wade to sit to really break out.

Rajon Rondo struggled last night but could also benefit if Wade sits. Rondo’s upside is capped due to his inept offensive game, but he could pay dividends in an uptempo game. Nikola Mirotic, Isaiah Canaan, and Doug McDerrmot should all a slight bump in minutes tonight in the second night of a back-to-back, with Canaan being the cheapest and Mirotic having the highest ceiling. Mirotic only played 21 minutes last night, while Canaan only played 14 and McDermott saw 26.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Rajon Rondo PG $6,600 PG $6,400 PG $10,900 29.4 27.5 0.93 18.5% 46.8% 25
Dwyane Wade SG $6,700 SG $6,300 SG $10,600 29.4 28.8 0.98 23.2% 45.5% 20
Jimmy Butler SF $7,700 SG/SF $7,800 SG $12,400 31.4 34.0 1.08 25.5% 36.8% 24
Taj Gibson PF $5,700 PF/C $5,800 PF $8,700 25.8 27.7 1.07 17.6% 19.8% 18
Robin Lopez C $4,700 C $4,000 C $9,400 19.9 19.4 0.97 17.0% 23.3% 14

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic

Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo, Isaiah Canaan, Doug McDermott

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers got blown out on the second half of a back-to-back in Chicago last Saturday and will look to return the favor tonight. Jeff Teague salary has fallen to a season-low on both DraftKings and FanDuel. This is an elite spot to fire him up, and he has been averaging over 31 minutes a contest this season. His shot has not been falling (shooting 25% to start the season), but he could really exceed value if it falls tonight.

Monta Ellis and Paul George are tied team lead in MPG at 35:24. George will likely have to deal with Jimmy Butler and has not had that huge fantasy outing he has been known for. He did put up 43.9 DKFP against the Lakers on Tuesday, but that number was artificially inflated by 12 free throws. He’s been averaging 3.75 free throws in the other four games he played this season. Still, he has been extremely consistent, scoring 20 or more actual points in every game while averaging 16.8 FGA.

Ellis has been too inconsistent to be considered a cash game play, but in a projected high-scoring game, Ellis deserves tournament consideration due to his heavy minutes. C.J. Miles has been extremely consistent to start the season and should continue to be their best player off the bench. His salary has continued to spike, and he has always been known as a streaky player, making him too risky to trust for cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Jeff Teague PG $6,000 PG $5,800 PG $10,400 31.2 26.3 0.84 23.2% 46.7% 13
Monta Ellis SG $5,900 SG $5,500 SG $10,400 35.2 24.9 0.71 15.3% 35.2% 8
Paul George SF $8,800 SF $8,200 SF $13,200 35.4 36.1 1.02 20.7% 40.7% 17
Thaddeus Young PF $5,900 PF $5,800 PF $9,900 30.5 25.8 0.85 14.8% 26.9% 23
Myles Turner C $6,700 PF/C $7,100 C $10,900 28.3 33.6 1.19 18.6% 24.0% 9

Elite Plays – Paul George, Jeff Teague

Secondary Plays – Myles Turner, Thaddeus Young

Denver Nuggets at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET

Denver Nuggets Detroit Pistons
denvernba Vegas Total 202.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 99.0 Team Total 103.5
Pace +/- -2.4 Pace +/- 4.0
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Jamal Murray Danilo Gallinari Nikola Jokic Jusuf Nurkic Proj. Starter Ish Smith Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 7 14 8 2 21 2016-17 30 27 1 29 1

Denver Nuggets

Denver had an impressive win over the Timberwolves on Thursday and continue their four-game road trip tonight in Detroit. Jameer Nelson played 32 minutes in the victory and could see extended minutes again if Jamal Murray struggles. Nelson has put together two consecutive strong outings and is still a viable punt play on DraftKings. He’s still under $4k there, while his price is back over $4k on FanDuel. Gary Harris is expected to play, so we should temper our expectations with Nelson and Murray.

Darrell Arthur is now back in the mix for the Nuggets, which severely limits Nikola Jokic and Kenneth Faried. Jokic only played 14 minutes on Thursday and is way too risky to trust right now. Faried is not really a viable option either. Jusuf Nurkic is the best big man play for the Nuggets, but he could get into foul trouble against Andre Drummond. Addtionaly, Nurkic has only played 30+ minutes once this season. It might just be better to wait to fire him up tomorrow against Boston. Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler played well on Thursday, but don’t have a ton of upside in this game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Emmanuel Mudiay PG $5,900 PG $6,000 PG $8,600 33.1 28.7 0.87 20.1% 41.8% 7
Jamal Murray PG $3,500 PG/SG $3,500 SG $6,800 16.6 6.8 0.41 13.9% 7
Danilo Gallinari SF $6,500 SF $5,900 SF $11,200 38.3 25.3 0.66 16.0% 29.4% 8
Nikola Jokic PF $5,700 PF/C $6,100 PF $9,600 23 25.3 1.10 17.2% 29.2% 2
Jusuf Nurkic C $6,000 C $6,500 C $9,900 28.4 36.1 1.27 20.8% 35.3% 21

Elite Plays – N/A

Secondary Plays – Jusuf Nurkic

Detroit Pistons

Andre Drummond was benched for the final 16 minutes of Wednesday’s loss to the Nets. Expect a fire to be lit under the Pistons big man. Denver has been crushed by Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Davis so far in this young season. While Drummond’s offensive game is not there like those two, he should still have his way inside. He will be low-owned coming off a poor game and a poor DvP ranking. He’s far from safe for cash but has the tournament upside we need.

Ish Smith has been extremely consistent this season but has only broken out over 30 fantasy points once. He gets a great matchup tonight with the Nuggets and should continue to see over 30 minutes. He’s cash game safe and has some tournament upside, since his salary has gone down a little. Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris are also viable tournament options since both have been really playing well as of late. They both are affordable but could cut into each other’s production. KCP also deserves consideration because he is the cheapest starter.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Ish Smith PG $5,800 PG $5,200 PG $8,800 30.6 23.3 0.76 24.7% 44.7% 30
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG $4,800 SG $4,900 SG $8,000 33.4 23.4 0.70 15.9% 22.7% 27
Marcus Morris SF $6,100 SF $5,700 SF $8,600 32.1 29.5 0.92 22.9% 24.4% 1
Tobias Harris PF $6,400 SF/PF $6,200 SF $9,300 33.3 30.8 0.93 18.1% 26.0% 29
Andre Drummond C $8,000 C $7,700 C $12,700 29.8 34.9 1.17 20.0% 25.8% 1

Elite Plays – Andre Drummond, Ish Smith, Tobias Harris (GPP), Marcus Morris (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

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About the Author

INSPYR
Chirag Hira (INSPYR)

Chirag Hira, DFS alias “INSPYR”, has been playing fantasy basketball since 2001. He picked up DFS during the 2015 playoffs and has never looked back. In charge of DFS Alerts for the NBA, Chirag takes it as a daily challenge to break news before anyone else in the industry. He graduated with a degree in sports journalism and his career highlights include interviewing Kobe Bryant and Joe Torre. You can find Chirag on Twitter at C_Hira24.