NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 17
Week 16 was brutal. Easily my worst DFS week in tournaments ever. I had about $3,000 in play, mostly running out just one lineup on each site. While I went all-in on Dion Lewis on DraftKings, I had zero Larry Fitzgerald, Todd Gurley, and Antonio Gates despite highlighting all three in this column.
Week 17 is typically my favorite slate of the regular season, where a little extra research goes a long way. Based on early builds, I’m mostly paying up at quarterback and wide receiver and down at running back, and still have a ton of salary left over on a lot of my favorite lineups.
Note 1: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Note 2: All references to team fantasy points allowed over expectation are based on this chart.
Due to so much uncertainty, I’ll update Saturday going more in-depth on how I’m ranking these players, but as it stands, here are my favorite tournament plays this week:
Quarterbacks
DraftKings Quarterbacks
DraftKings made things easy on us this week, pricing Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Cam Newton all under $7,000. In a week with a lot of extra salary, I don’t see myself chasing any of the cheaper options on DraftKings… The Jets rank bottom-three to quarterbacks in fantasy points allowed per dropback and in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game (over the course of the full season and over the last five weeks). Brady is fighting for the No. 1 seed and for his fifth MVP-award, which would put him tied with Peyton Manning for most all-time, and, of course, Bill Belichick is known for never taking his foot off of the gas in must-win situations. Gamescript implies a run-heavy affair, but Brady is still probably my top quarterback play on the site… Russell Wilson has disappointed over the past two weeks, but still leads all active quarterbacks in fantasy points per game by plus-2.5. In a must-win game for the Seahawks, expect them (the league’s 10th-most pass-heavy offense) to go pass-heavy again against the Cardinals, who are passed on at the sixth-highest rate in the league.
Cam Newton has failed to eclipse even 200 passing yards in six of his last eight games, but also ranks 14th among running backs in rushing yards since Week 6. Atlanta ranks seventh-worst in opposing passer rating, while also allowing the third-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. He’s still risky for Week 17, but the rushing workload keeps his floor high, and we should know by now he has one of the highest ceilings in the game (leading all quarterbacks in 30+ fantasy point games over the past three seasons).
Value Quarterbacks
In any other week, Patrick Mahomes would be a fine play, but I think value elsewhere renders him obsolete. Instead, the cheapest I’ll be willing to go is Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, or Jimmy Garoppolo.
It might make sense for the Lions to rest Stafford, but if we get word he’ll be playing the full game, he’d be a top-five quarterback in my rankings this week, at home against the Packers. Green Bay ranks third-worst in opposing passer rating, fourth-worst in fantasy points per dropback, and second-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game over the past five weeks… Cousins ranks third among quarterbacks in fantasy points since Week 3, despite major offensive line injuries during a significant portion of this stretch. The Giants rank bottom-six in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game, opposing passer rating, fantasy points per dropback, and last in pressures per dropback. They’ll also be without Landon Collins (their top-graded coverage defender), “starting” cornerback Eli Apple, and potentially Jason Pierre-Paul (questionable). Cousins is playing for a contract, and it’d be hard to imagine he disappoints if the volume is there… Garoppolo just dropped 22.0 fantasy points on Jacksonville last week — the most by any quarterback this season. Since being named the starter four weeks ago, Garoppolo ranks as our second-highest-graded passer and ranks third in passing yardage. This week he gets set to play a Rams defense with nothing on the line, and without Aaron Donald (our single highest-graded player this season) and maybe a few other starting players on defense.
Running Backs
High-Priced Running Backs
LeSean McCoy has totaled 37 carries and 12 targets over the past two weeks, and just dropped 25.6 fantasy points against the Dolphins just two weeks ago. Volume should be good again in a must-win game and with Travaris Cadet (5.4 expected fantasy points per game since Week 11) on I.R. Miami is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to enemy running backs… On the other side of the ball, Kenyan Drake is still in play so long as Damien Williams remains out. He’s played on 243 of his team’s 256 running back snaps over the past four weeks, and ranks fourth among running backs (behind only Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, and Kareem Hunt) in expected fantasy points over this stretch. Buffalo also ranks worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game.
Christian McCaffrey ranks 10th among running backs in expected fantasy points per game and 11th in actual fantasy points per game this season. Although he’s seen an uptick in rushing usage in recent weeks (and efficiency, ranking 12th-best in yards per carry since Week 9), his receiving outputs still make up 75 percent of his total fantasy points this season. With that in mind, he draws a dream matchup against an Atlanta defense allowing the second-most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, after allowing the most last season… In a game New England needs to win, but might not need to go too pass-heavy as 14.5-point favorites, Dion Lewis is a terrific play if Rex Burkhead and James White remain out. He dropped 32.3 fantasy points on Buffalo last week, seeing 24 carries, five targets, and seven red zone opportunities. He remains one of the league’s most efficient running backs, ranking top-three in PFF grade, PFF elusive rating, yards per carry, yards after contact per attempt, and missed tackles forced per touch. The Jets also seem likely to be without Leonard Williams, their top-graded player on defense (and top-three in run defense)… Ezekiel Elliott is going over-looked based on the (legitimate) fear that Dallas rests him with nothing on the line for Week 17, but offers tremendous upside based on his ownership and workload and production this season (he ranks third among running backs in expected and actual fantasy points per game). He saw a career-high seven targets last week, and if plays the full game, I’d expect a similar output this week, with Rod Smith (three targets last week) unlikely to play. The matchup is certainly tough on paper if Philadelphia plays their defensive starters all game, but he still has tournament-winning upside… The Saints need a win if they want home field advantage next week, and their running backs are always in play, but especially as seven-point favorites against a beatable Tampa Bay run defense. Usage has been fairly even (with Kamara ranking 12th and Ingram ranking 13th among running backs in expected fantasy points over the last four weeks), but I lean Mark Ingram over Alvin Kamara this week, due to the high spread and that Tampa Bay is giving up the fifth-most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, but only 23rd-most receiving fantasy points per game…
Mid-Tier Running Backs
Jamaal Williams disappointed for fantasy owners last week, but still finished as one of only four running backs to play on at least 90 percent of his team’s running back snaps. He ranks eighth among running backs in expected fantasy points over the last five weeks of the season, and draws a Lions defense ranking bottom-five in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (over the past five weeks and over the course of a full season). He’s going to go overlooked this week, but with Aaron Jones not expected to play, he’s still a top value play.
Alex Collins is at home and favored by 10.0 in a must-win game against a Cincinnati defense ranking bottom-three in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to running backs this season and over the past five weeks. He also ranks eighth among running backs in expected fantasy points over the past six weeks of the season… Latavius Murray is a similar play as 10.0-point favorites at home in a must-win game… I think Carlos Hyde is going to go under-owned, despite liking him more than Garoppolo this week. He’ll get an Aaron Donald-less Rams defense that might bench a few more of their defensive starters this week. Despite seeing less work in the passing game with Garoppolo under center, Hyde still ranks fifth among running backs in opportunities inside the five-yard line, second in opportunities inside the 10-yard-line, sixth in expected touchdowns, and 10th in expected fantasy points over the past four weeks. As 3.5-point favorites up against a Sean Mannion-led Rams offense, the lower receiving workload shouldn’t be too much of a concern. I especially like pairing Hyde with San Francisco’s cheap, and recently competent defense… C.J. Anderson is going to go low-owned, despite ranking sixth among running backs in expected fantasy points over the past four weeks of the season, and should see good volume again at home as 3.5-point favorites against the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs…
Cheap Running Backs
Stealing a line from an older article, “Depleted backfields create unique opportunities with minimal competition for sometimes marginal athletes to far exceed their potential and reach elite fantasy heights.” Just over the past two seasons, we’ve seen eight different running backs who were held under 100 carries for the season still finish with at least 20 fantasy points in Week 17. The combination of a lack of competition for touches as well as “fresh legs” against worn-out defenses can make non-household names RB1s in Week 17. This has already been the case with Kenyan Drake over the past few weeks, with Damien Williams out. If Melvin Gordon is out (ankle injury), Joe Mixon is out (ankle injury), DeMarco Murray is out (knee injury), and Todd Gurley is benched (rest), I’d consider moving all of Branden Oliver, Giovani Bernard, Derrick Henry, and Malcolm Brown to at least the high-end RB2 range in my rankings, all well above their salary rankings.
A few more running backs could also make this list, depending on the statuses of Leonard Fournette or Kareem Hunt, but I’ll go more in-depth on where I’m specifically ranking each of these running backs in the update… Wayne Gallman or Mike Davis would be fine value plays in any other week, but are probably unnecessary this week. The same goes for Frank Gore, but he is a slightly better play. He needs just 139 rushing yards to be just the fifth running back with 10 1,000 rushing yards seasons, and ranks fifth in carries since Week 8. Houston also ranks fifth-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to running backs over the last five weeks.
Wide Receivers
Over the past five weeks, Carolina is allowing the most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers. More impressively, they’re also allowing the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers over this stretch, and by a whopping 172 percent more than the next-closest defense.
Jones ranks top-five among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game over the past five weeks and over the full season. He’s also been extremely unlucky in the touchdown department, scoring a league-worst 6.6 touchdowns fewer than his expectation. In a must-win game, it makes sense for Atlanta to feature their best player (and one of the league’s best players), like they did in do-or-die games late last season and in the playoffs. This is an “eruption spot” if there ever was one.
Looking at the wide receivers after Jones, in no particular order…
Larry Fitzgerald – From 2015 up to Drew Stanton’s first start of the 2017 season, Fitzgerald accounted for 40 percent of Stanton’s passing yards and 100 percent of his passing touchdowns. Across his three starts this season, Fitzgerald has accounted for 34 percent of his pass attempts. He’s a top play again this week in what could be his final NFL game, ranking seventh among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game and up against a Seattle defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers.
Marquise Goodwin – Goodwin caught just three passes for 37 yards last week, but that’s not necessarily a disappointing outcome, considering he was running the majority of his routes against Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye – two of our top-five-graded cornerbacks this season. Over the three weeks prior, he averaged 11.0 targets per game and 106.3 receiving yards per game. He has a much softer draw this week, against a Rams defense with nothing on the line.
Michael Thomas – If I knew Thomas was fully healthy, he’d rival Jones as one of the top wide receiver play of the slate. Tampa Bay is allowing the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, and the third-most over expectation to WR1s.
A.J. Green – Green ranks just behind Thomas in expected fantasy points per game (just 13th-best at the position), and draws a beatable matchup against a Baltimore Ravens defense sorely missing top cornerback Jimmy Smith. Projected gamescript also works in his favor, but I’ll likely be looking elsewhere this week.
Jarvis Landry & Brandin Cooks – Landry disappointed last week, but is still an on-paper glaring value, ranking fifth in expected fantasy points per game but ranks as just the 17th most expensive wide receiver on DraftKings. With reports that the Dolphins may bench Jay Cutler at some point in Week 17, however, I’m wary. Like Landry, Cooks shouldn’t be the 16th-most expensive wide receiver on DraftKings, and especially not this week up against a Jets defense allowing the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s.
T.Y. Hilton – If this was 2016’s iteration of Hilton, I’d be borderline all-in on him at this salary, up against Kareem Jackson in the slot (second-most fantasy points allowed among cornerbacks) and a Houston secondary allowing the third-most fantasy points per game on deep passes. Three of his four best fantasy games (including Week 9 earlier this season) have come against Houston. That said, he ranks just 38th in deep targets per game and has run just 37 percent of his routes from the slot this season. He’s still a fine play, but as risky as he’s been all season.
Keelan Cole – With Cole (and DeDe Westbrook who I like slightly less) there’s concern that the Jaguars will rest their wide receivers (a position group with very little depth, due to injury) at some point in their meaningless Week 17 game, but I’ll still take some shots in tournaments and hope Doug Marrone stays true to his word indicating otherwise. Tennessee is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers, and Cole ranks third (and Westbrook ranks 20th) at the position in fantasy points over the past four weeks of the season.
Marvin Jones & Golden Tate – I like Jones slightly more than Tate this week, although Tate has seen the better usage in recent weeks. Over the past five weeks, however, Green Bay is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers, but third-fewest to slot wide receivers. Over the course of the full season, they’re allowing the second-most and 10th-fewest, respectively. Tate runs 78 percent of his routes from the slot, while Jones is there just 12 percent of the time.
Keenan Allen – Honestly, nothing about this matchup stands out to me. Oakland has been average to slot wide receivers, and are far more susceptible deep (Allen has seen only 10 deep targets this season) than over the short to intermediate portions of the field. Still, he ranks second at the position in fantasy points and targets since Week 11, and remains in play.
Cheap Wide Receivers
In any other week, I’d be going all-in on Roger Lewis, and I still might this week. Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, and Tavarres King (combined 21.7 targets per game since Week 9) are on the more doubtful side of questionable this week, and Lewis leads all receivers in expected fantasy points (60.3) over the past three weeks, with 32 targets, 433 air yards, and eight deep targets. He’s still boom or bust based on the lack of efficiency over this stretch, and a matchup that’s more negative than neutral, but he’s still one of my favorite plays this week.
On the other side of the ball, Josh Doctson saw a season-high 25.4 expected fantasy points last week, which was also the second-most by any player in Week 16. Doctson’s yardage totals have been underwhelming, topping 75 yards just once this season, but he does rank eighth-best at the position in expected touchdowns and first-best in expected touchdowns per target. Doctson has had a brutal cornerback-schedule since Week 9, running 30 percent of his routes against Richard Sherman, Xavier Rhodes, Janoris Jenkins, Marshon Lattimore, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Casey Wayward, Patrick Peterson, Aqib Talib, and Chris Harris Jr. Things look much easier this week, up against a Giants defense without Janoris Jenkins, Landon Collins, and Eli Apple, and already leading the league in big plays (30+ yards) surrendered. He has tournament-winning potential in Week 17, though like Lewis is also boom-or-bust… Michael Clark and Josh Reynolds (if Los Angeles rests their starting wide receivers) are also fine value plays, but I’m confident Lewis and Doctson are the superior plays.
Tight Ends
Higher-Priced Options
At the top of the list is Rob Gronkowski, who needs 11 catches or 116 yards to earn an additional $2.5 million in bonuses. He also has the added benefit of being Gronk, which, based on my research, means he’s very likely to smash… Little stands out for Greg Olsen in terms of matchup, but he has seen 18 targets over the past two weeks and offers the added benefit of leverage off of the likely massively-owned Gronkowski.
Mid-Tier
Delanie Walker is still way too cheap on DraftKings relative to recent volume, ranking second among tight ends and 16th among all receivers in expected fantasy points over the past seven weeks of the season… Eric Ebron ranks 15th among all receivers in targets (26) over the past three weeks. While Green Bay started off tough against tight ends, they rank second-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game over the past five weeks of the season… Gates ran a route on 88 percent of Philip Rivers’ dropbacks last week, turning eight targets into six receptions for 81 yards and a score. The Chargers are fighting for a playoff spot, while Oakland is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Vernon Davis’ recent usage isn’t inspiring by any means, but the Giants have allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends and just lost their primary (only decent?) tight end defender in No. 5-graded safety Landon Collins.
Dumpster-Diving
The Bills are fighting for a playoff spot, while Charles Clay has totaled 19 targets over the past two weeks. The Dolphins rank second-worst in fantasy points per game, schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game, and percentage of receiving fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season.
With Evan Engram out, Rhett Ellison offers a good amount of value in a week where we probably don’t need it. Washington has ranked bottom-six in fantasy points per game to tight ends in each of the past two seasons, and Ellison saw seven targets, catching four for 60 yards after Engram exited with an injury in the first quarter. Sterling Shepard and Taverres King are also out for Week 17.
Update
This update is a little whack, just because I’m in a crazy rush this week. Just finished one other article, while still adjusting rankings and DFS lineups, and I have a friend breathing down my neck letting me know we’re going to be at least 45 minutes late for the Giants game (which I’ll be attending). Anyway, here’s where I stand (in single entry tournaments)… I think I’m 100% all-in on Zeke Elliott with Rod Smith and Philadelphia defensive starters Brandon Graham, Nigel Bradham, Tim Jernigan, and Rodney McLeod all out. Graham and Jernigan are Philadelphia’s highest-graded run defenders this season. Smith is the team’s receiving back who saw three targets last week, while Elliott still saw a career-high seven. I suspect he draws low ownership… I think I’m also all in on Dion Lewis as 16.5-point favorites in a game New England wants to win. With Mike Gillislee, James White, and Rex Burkhead out, I suspect he sees nearly all of the team’s running back snaps, targets, carries, and near end zone work… I’ll likely have one of Malcolm Brown or Akeem Hunt in the flex spot everywhere else… I think Derrick Henry is getting to be a little over-rated to the point where I’d rather play Jamaal Williams. That said, I still won’t end up with much of any other running back… I’m heavily invested in Kirk Cousins, despite still liking guys like Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson… I’ll have at least one of Roger Lewis or Josh Doctson on every single lineup, as the obvious top value wide receiver plays. They’re still boom or bust, but on paper are vastly superior to Randall Cobb, Michael Clark, Kenny Golladay, or whoever else, in my opinion… I’m all-in on Julio Jones… TE is a little trickier. I’m mostly just playing Gronk or playing whoever fits… I’m definitely forgetting a guy or two, but anyway, that’s all I’ve got for now. EDIT: Welp, this week sucked.