NFL Chalk Talk: Week 12
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is just as important as our actual box-score projections from a game theory perspective.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the DraftKings $20 buy-in Millionaire Maker. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
Editor’s Note: This refers to the main Sunday/Monday slate only.
QUARTERBACK
1. Carson Palmer $7100 at SF: 22 percent
Last week, the highest owned quarterback was Derek Carr at 29.2 percent. Matthew Stafford (15.4 percent) was the only other quarterback among the top-20 highest owned players. It’s a reminder that we don’t have to worry about ownership too much when thinking about the quarterback position. Outside of Palmer, who has at least three TDs in three straight games and has a pristine matchup against the Niners, I wouldn’t expect very heavy ownership anywhere. This is a situation where I’d ideally use Carson as my cash-game quarterback and then “hedge” by not using him at all in GPPs.
2. Drew Brees $7300 at HOU: 15 percent
Players coming off a bye are typically underowned. But Tom Brady is out of play at Denver, Philip Rivers is in the tank and Aaron Rodgers / Cam Newton are not in the slate. That will lead people to Brees, who was white hot prior to the bye with 12 touchdown passes in his last three games. It’s not the kind of ownership projection that would get me off him in tournament lineups.
3. Brian Hoyer $5000 vs. NO: 13 percent
As mentioned below in the DeAndre Hopkins notes below, I’m not sold on the Texans offense going ham on the Saints. A bye week to get some pieces healthier and a new defensive coordinator to light a fire under this group at least has a chance to make a difference. I do think Hoyer will easily meet value, but I do not think it’s going to be a Marcus Mariota, Eli Manning or Kirk Cousins kind of performance.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Philip Rivers 5 percent, Matt Ryan 7 percent, Ben Roethlisberger 5 percent, Russell Wilson 8 percent
RUNNING BACK
1. Thomas Rawls $4500 vs. PIT: 43 percent
Last week, Charcandrick West was $4500 and 57.2 percent owned in the Milly Maker. We all know how that went, reminding everyone there’s always merit to fading a player we can project around the 50 percent mark. If West went off, we gained relatively little on the field. If West failed (or got hurt) and we had the RB that excelled, we swept up a huge part of the field. So I think Rawls will be a little less owned than he should this week, but still will be extremely popular. The general public does not realize the Steelers’ run defense is actually a top-third unit in the NFL. I certainly won’t be all-in on Rawls in GPP even though he’s an excellent play.
2. Tevin Coleman $4300 vs. MIN: 21 percent (if Devonta Freeman is ruled out)
The expensive running backs have not been meeting value lately. This is also a week that lacks quality cheapies. So that’s going to lead a lot of people to cheap starters at running back in the form of Tevin, Rawls and possibly Javorius Allen / Spencer Ware. Coleman’s NFL tape has been poor so far, but that’s what a lot of people said about Devonta Freeman last year. We do know that Tevin would slide right into Devonta’s role, giving him a floor of 16 touches at $4000 cheaper.
3. Adrian Peterson $7300 at ATL: 13 percent
Todd Gurley was 16.4 percent owned last week in a bad matchup at Baltimore and scored just 11.6 DK points. I’d expect most to be off him in another awful matchup (at Cincy). Peterson also laid an egg last week, but there’s a green “28th” next to his name on DraftKings for the Falcons run defense. With Devonta Freeman (concussion) very iffy, a decent amount of people will still gravitate back to Peterson. I’d also expect Chris Johnson, T.J. Yeldon and Doug Martin to be in this 10-14 percent range.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: Mark Ingram 7 percent, Chris Ivory 5 percent, Latavius Murray 6 percent
WIDE RECEIVER
1. DeAndre Hopkins $9100 vs. NO: 36 percent
When you put 5-118-2 on Darrelle Revis and then use air quotes to describe “Revis Island,” everyone is going to take notice. Especially when your next game is against the DVP spot the entire world is on, pass game against the Saints. Hopkins is also getting starting quarterback Brian Hoyer back. I think this is an interesting fade spot in a large-field tournament, as Delvin Breaux has played far better than his numbers look and the Saints defense could get a spark out the bye with a new defensive coordinator in Dennis Allen. The projections of Julio Jones, Odell Beckham and even Antonio Brown are very similar.
2. Larry Fitzgerald $7400 at SF: 26 percent
Fitz was only 12.6 percent owned last week as ownership got chopped up with Calvin Johnson (17.8 percent), Amari Cooper (22.5 percent), Mike Evans (23.6 percent and Michael Crabtree (31.3 percent). This week will be a different story, as Fitz has a far better matchup (against Jimmie Ward) and the hamstring injuries to Michael Floyd / John Brown continue to linger. I certainly like Fitz a lot for cash, but he hasn’t shown a tremendous ceiling relative to his elevated price tag lately. He’s been under 18 DK points in 5-of-7 games and hasn’t been over 26 points at all.
3. Julio Jones $9400 vs. MIN: 24 percent
It’s really, really hard to fit both Julio and DeAndre Hopkins into the same lineup. You only have an average of $4500 to spend on the remaining seven roster spots. So that should keep both of the elite wideouts’ percentage under what it would be if only one was in a good spot. I do think Julio will be the lesser owned because even the most casual fan knows about the Saints defense by now. But it’s not like the Vikings are a shut-down group, especially with Xavier Rhodes (PFF’s No. 101 CB) playing so poorly. They’re a middling 15th in pass defense DVOA.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: Antonio Brown 7 percent, Demaryius Thomas 6 percent, Amari Cooper 5 percent
TIGHT END
1. Delanie Walker $5400 vs. OAK: 25 percent
Walker is going to have a lot of traffic for two main reasons: His game log (at least six catches in five of his last six games) and a matchup against a Raiders defense that has a green “29th” next to it for tight end defense in the DK lobby. But the Raiders have actually been better against tight ends lately: Eric Ebron 0 catches Week 11, Kyle Rudolph 1-4-0 Week 10 and Heath Miller 3-32-0 Week 9. Kendall Wright’s expected return from his knee issue should steal away a few targets, especially with Wright’s dream matchup against D.J. Hayden. I prefer Jordan Reed’s matchup and skill set over Walker’s.
2. Jordan Reed $5100 vs. NYG: 20 percent
We got a scare last week as Reed reportedly sprained his left MCL. But it must have been extremely minor, as he was a full participant in Wednesday practice and isn’t even listed on the injury report. So it appears Reed will be a unhampered for a Giants defense that I believe is right there with the Saints for the worst tight end defense in the league. Prince Amukamura (pectoral) will be back to pair with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie on the outside, meaning Kirk Cousins eyes should immediately look to the middle of the field. We don’t have to ask him twice anyway, as Reed is averaging 8.2 targets per day with five touchdowns in his last four games.
3. Gary Barnidge $4800 vs. BAL: 14 percent
Barnidge is never going to be overowned simply because no one really knows who he is. This is a 30-year-old who never caught more than 13 passes in a season before this year. But with Josh McCown named the starter and the Browns lacking much of a run-game or size in their receiving corps, this is a week at least a decent amount of people project to be on Gary Gronkidge. Very few people are going to pay up for weekly disappointment Rob Gronkowski against the Broncos, especially off the Week 11 MNF dud. Note that Tyler Eifert will also likely be in this 12-16 percent range.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Rob Gronkowski 6 percent, Travis Kelce 7 percent, Vernon Davis 3 percent, Coby Fleener 2 percent